在全球贸易博弈持续升温的背景下，资本市场波动明显加大，以黄金为代表的贵金属及部分稀有金属延 续较长时间涨势，带动有色金属行业上涨。 对此，广发优势成长基金经理苏文杰分析，近期美国对全球征收高额关税，加速了逆全球化趋势。在此 背景下，以贵金属为代表的实物类资产因其保值增值的特性受到关注。同时，全球不确定性上升，各国 纷纷增加军备开支，军工板块及上游资源类资产有望联袂表现。 证券时报记者注意到，苏文杰管理的广发优势成长主要配置了基础化工、有色金属、国防军工、采掘、 建筑装饰等行业，顺周期行业占据较大比例。从2025年一季报重仓股来看，他的组合与公募基金主流配 置有明显差异，前十大重仓股中有4只是化工股，分别是万华化学、新安股份、国泰集团、兴发集团；4 只分布在有色金属行业，包括洛阳钼业、中金黄金、金诚信、中金岭南；此外，还有军工行业的火炬电 子、建筑装饰行业的浙江交科。 Wind统计显示，截至4月18日收盘，有色金属板块总市值自年初以来的加权涨幅达8.96%，在31个申万 一级行业中排名第二，在市值超万亿元的22个行业中排名第一。 具体来看，苏文杰偏好于根据景气、估值、市场拥挤度等因素，挑选不同的子行业，在周期和 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a rating of "Buy" for the industry [5] Core Views - The report emphasizes the strong performance of gold due to increased demand for safe-haven assets amid economic uncertainties and rising inflation expectations [1][35] - The report highlights the mixed performance of industrial metals, particularly copper and aluminum, with market direction remaining uncertain due to tariff policies and supply-demand dynamics [2] - Energy metals, particularly lithium, are facing cost pressures that are limiting production, while the demand for lithium remains stable [3] Summary by Sections Precious Metals - Gold prices are supported by increased ETF holdings, with a notable weekly increase of 2.58 tons in SPDR Gold ETF [1] - The market is shifting from a "hot economy + inflation" narrative to a stagflation outlook, which historically benefits gold prices [1][35] Industrial Metals - Copper prices have shown a flat performance, with global copper inventories at 695,000 tons, down by 62,000 tons week-on-week [2] - Aluminum prices are expected to remain volatile due to U.S. tariff policies, with theoretical operating capacity in the electrolytic aluminum industry at 43.81 million tons, a slight increase from the previous week [2] Energy Metals - Lithium carbonate prices have decreased slightly, with industrial-grade lithium carbonate at 70,000 yuan/ton, while production is constrained by cost pressures [3] - The report notes a 3% decrease in lithium carbonate production to 17,400 tons, with an operating rate of 46% [3] Key Stocks - Recommended stocks include Zijin Mining, Shandong Gold, and Chifeng Jilong Gold for precious metals; Luoyang Molybdenum and China Hongqiao for industrial metals; and Ganfeng Lithium and Tianqi Lithium for energy metals [8]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the financial performance and market position of China Petroleum Engineering Corporation, noting a decline in stock price and profitability [1][2] - As of April 16, the closing stock price of China Petroleum Engineering is 3.11 yuan, down 1.27%, with a rolling PE ratio of 27.32 times and a total market capitalization of 17.364 billion yuan [1] - The average PE ratio for the extraction industry is 25.12 times, with a median of 35.08 times, placing China Petroleum Engineering at the 13th position within the industry [1][2] Group 2 - The company reported a revenue of 85.917 billion yuan for the year 2024, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 6.94%, while net profit decreased by 14.80% to 635 million yuan [1] - The sales gross margin for the company stands at 8.19% [1] - As of March 31, 2025, the number of shareholders is 64,316, a decrease of 1,584 from the previous count, with an average holding value of 352,800 yuan and an average shareholding of 27,600 shares [1]

Group 1 - The non-ferrous metal ETF (512400) experienced a strong intraday increase of over 3%, aiming for a fifth consecutive rise, with a transaction volume of 86.3473 million yuan as of 10:40 AM [1] - The index tracking the non-ferrous metal sector, the Zhongzheng Shenwan Non-Ferrous Metal Index, surged by 2.67%, with constituent stocks such as Hunan Gold hitting the daily limit, Luoyang Molybdenum rising by 5.31%, and Northern Copper increasing by 4.86% [1] - The spot gold price continued to rise, breaking previous highs and reaching a new historical peak of 3,245.73 USD/ounce, with COMEX gold prices also experiencing a sharp increase [1] Group 2 - Guosheng Securities highlighted that the current trading backdrop is characterized by stagnation, leading to a favorable outlook for gold, which has reached new highs due to several factors [1] - Key factors supporting the rise in gold prices include: 1) US CPI data released on Wednesday was below expectations, coupled with a rising unemployment rate, which has increased expectations for interest rate cuts; 2) The People's Bank of China has increased its gold holdings for the fifth consecutive month, boosting market confidence; 3) The uncertainty surrounding Trump's tariff policies has significant economic implications [1] - Historically, during periods of stagflation, such as 1974-1975 and 1979-1980, gold has performed well, indicating potential for similar outcomes in the current economic climate [1]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the non-ferrous metals industry is "Positive" (maintained) [4] Core Views - Copper prices rebounded after a significant drop, with attention on the ongoing US-China trade dynamics and recession expectations in the US. The weekly performance showed US copper up 3.75%, London copper up 2.97%, and Shanghai copper down 4.6%. The decline in copper prices led to increased downstream activity and accelerated inventory depletion, with copper rod operating rates at 74.76%, up 0.21 percentage points week-on-week. Social inventory of electrolytic copper decreased by 14.80% to 267,200 tons, while Shanghai copper inventory fell by 18.96% to 182,900 tons. Short-term price rebounds may be limited by US recession expectations, with key focus areas being US-China trade developments, US economic and inflation data, and Federal Reserve interest rate expectations. Recommended stocks include Zijin Mining, Luoyang Molybdenum, Jincheng Mining, and Tongling Nonferrous Metals [4] - Aluminum prices fell due to tariff impacts, with signs of weakening demand in the peak season and continued inventory depletion. The alumina market remains oversupplied, with prices dropping 5.12% to 2,870 RMB/ton. The operating capacity of alumina plants decreased by 1.91 million tons to 84.82 million tons/year. Electrolytic aluminum prices fell 3.72% to 19,675 RMB/ton, with profit margins down 15.54% to 3,650 RMB/ton. Overall, the supply side of electrolytic aluminum shows no increase in capacity, leading to a potential shortage this year, which could drive aluminum prices up significantly. Recommended stocks include Hongchuang Holdings, Yun Aluminum, Tianshan Aluminum, Shenhuo Co., and China Aluminum [4] - Lithium prices continued to decline, with carbonate lithium down 3.11% to 71,600 RMB/ton. The supply side remains oversupplied, with inventory increasing by 1.3% to 131,000 tons. Demand growth is hindered by tariff impacts on downstream exports, with expectations for a narrowing of the oversupply throughout the year. Recommended stocks include Yahua Group, Zhongjin Lingnan, Yongxing Materials, and Ganfeng Lithium [4] Summary by Sections 1. Industry Overview - The US March CPI was lower than expected at 2.4%, with initial jobless claims matching expectations at 223,000 [8] 2. Industrial Metals 2.1. Copper - London copper rose 2.97%, while Shanghai copper fell 4.60%. Inventory levels decreased significantly, with Shanghai copper inventory down 18.96% [21][24] 2.2. Aluminum - London aluminum increased by 0.50%, while Shanghai aluminum decreased by 3.72%. The operating profit for aluminum companies fell by 15.54% [33] 2.3. Lead and Zinc - London lead prices fell 0.57%, while Shanghai lead prices decreased by 2.44%. London zinc prices rose 0.34%, but Shanghai zinc prices fell 2.36% [48] 2.4. Tin and Nickel - London tin prices dropped 12.17%, and Shanghai tin prices fell 13.22%. Nickel prices also saw a decline [61] 3. Energy Metals 3.1. Lithium - Lithium carbonate prices fell 3.11% to 71,600 RMB/ton, with continued oversupply in the market [77] 3.2. Cobalt - Overseas MB cobalt prices increased by 0.16% to 15.88 USD/pound, while domestic cobalt prices fell [88]

Core Viewpoint - The energy industry is accelerating its digital and intelligent transformation under the guidance of national strategies, with companies like Jincheng Mining Management Co., Ltd. leading the way in integrating digital technologies into their operations [1] Group 1: Digital Transformation in Procurement - Jincheng Mining is undergoing a significant transformation in its procurement department, moving from traditional manual processes to a digitalized model to enhance efficiency and compliance [2] - The company has partnered with JD Government Business to implement a digital procurement platform, which centralizes and streamlines the procurement process, significantly improving operational efficiency [2][3] - The integration of AI, cloud computing, and big data into procurement management allows for intelligent analysis and enhances transparency and compliance in the procurement process [2][3] Group 2: Supply Chain and Logistics Optimization - Jincheng Mining faces logistical challenges due to the remote locations of its mining projects, but the partnership with JD has improved procurement and delivery times, ensuring materials are delivered within three days [4] - JD's extensive supply chain network and customized fulfillment solutions effectively match supplier resources with the company's procurement needs, reducing operational costs [4] Group 3: Talent Management and Employee Welfare - The company emphasizes a "talent-driven" strategy, focusing on both professional skills and employee welfare, which is crucial for future competitiveness [5] - The collaboration with JD has introduced a digital employee welfare solution, allowing employees to choose benefits from a wide range of products, thus simplifying the procurement process for employee welfare [5] Group 4: Future Collaboration and Industry Impact - The partnership aims to expand into more areas of the supply chain and business operations, leveraging JD's capabilities to support Jincheng Mining's cost reduction and efficiency improvement goals [5] - This collaboration is expected to contribute significantly to the transformation and upgrading of the mining industry as a whole [5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the non-ferrous metals sector [2]. Core Viewpoints - China's response to U.S. tariffs includes a 34% additional tariff on all imports from the U.S. starting April 10, 2025, and export controls on certain rare earth elements [5]. - The precious metals market is experiencing increased volatility due to U.S. tariff announcements, with gold prices rising by 2.5% in the domestic market [5]. - Industrial metals are facing downward price pressure, particularly copper, which has seen a price drop of 2.0% on the SHFE and 9.8% on the LME [5]. - The report highlights a potential long-term bullish trend for precious metals, especially gold, due to declining real interest rates [6]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Data Review - Precious Metals: Gold prices have decreased, while ETF holdings have increased, with the Shanghai Gold Exchange closing at 739 CNY per gram, a weekly change of 2.5% [10]. - Industrial Metals: Prices are predominantly declining, with SHFE copper down 2.0% and LME copper down 9.8% [27]. - Rare Earths & Tungsten: Prices for praseodymium and neodymium oxides have increased, indicating a recovery in manufacturing demand [5]. - Energy Metals: Lithium carbonate prices have decreased, with a focus on future demand growth [5]. 2. Market Performance - The report notes significant price changes across various metals, with copper and aluminum both experiencing declines [28]. - The SHFE copper price is reported at 78,860 CNY per ton, reflecting a 2.0% weekly decrease [29]. - Aluminum prices have also dropped, with SHFE aluminum at 20,420 CNY per ton, down 0.8% [43]. 3. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests a favorable outlook for the non-ferrous metals sector, particularly in precious metals and industrial metals, with specific stock recommendations provided [6]. - For precious metals, companies like Shandong Gold and Zhongjin Gold are recommended due to their potential for growth [6]. - In industrial metals, companies such as Zijin Mining and China Hongqiao are highlighted for their resilience and growth potential [6].

记者了解到，3月25日晚，云南铜业发布了关于开展商品类期货和衍生品套期保值业务的公告，表示将针对生产的铜、金、银主产品和铜、银、锌贸易商 品，开展铜、金、银、锌套期保值业务。投入套期保值业务任意时点保证金最高不超过48.5亿元。 西部矿业方面表示，针对铜价大幅波动，公司管理层目前还在商讨应对措施。为了规避商品价格风险，公司一直在做套期保值，且公司签的都是长单，但期 货跟现货走势同向，所以铜价下跌对公司业绩的影响会滞后。至于维护股价的相关措施，西部矿业方面表示，上一轮大股东增持已经结束，未来可能还会有 增持计划，投资者可以关注公司后续公告。 铜陵有色方面表示，目前行情较为极端，公司还在商讨应对措施，也有套期保值业务。维护股价的相关措施方面，公司方面称回购方案已经获得通过，但具 体实施时间不方便透露。 每经记者 梁枭 每经编辑 张海妮 近日，国际铜价大幅下挫。同花顺数据显示，4月3日、4日，LME（伦敦金属交易所）期铜价格分别大跌4.02%、6.86%。今日（4月7日），沪铜主力合约开 盘跌停。或受此影响，A股上市铜企股价亦大幅下挫，截至午间收盘，金诚信（603979.SH）、北方铜业（000737.SZ）、云南 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the non-ferrous metals sector [6]. Core Viewpoints - The report highlights that the sentiment surrounding trade conflicts has a greater impact than the actual effects, with expectations for copper prices to stabilize after sentiment dissipates [1][4]. - Supply and demand dynamics indicate a tight balance in 2025, with supply constraints expected to gradually materialize, supporting a bullish outlook for copper prices [1][4]. Summary by Sections Price Trends - As of April 3, 2025, SHFE copper closed at 78,860 CNY/ton, down 2.0% week-on-week, while LME copper closed at 8,780 USD/ton, down 10.4% week-on-week [1][17]. - The report notes a significant drop in copper prices due to the U.S. imposing "reciprocal tariffs" on all trading partners [1]. Inventory - Domestic copper social inventory decreased by 6.2%, while LME copper inventory fell by 1.0% [2][25]. - As of April 3, 2025, domestic port copper concentrate inventory stood at 648,000 tons, down 18.3% week-on-week [2][46]. Supply - In March 2025, China's electrolytic copper production reached 1,122,100 tons, up 6.0% month-on-month and 12.3% year-on-year [3][65]. - The price difference between refined copper and scrap copper was 917 CNY/ton as of April 3, 2025, down 1,528 CNY/ton week-on-week [2][54]. Demand - The cable industry's operating rate increased by 8.2 percentage points to 81.06% as of April 3, 2025 [3][75]. - The report indicates that the air conditioning sector, which accounts for approximately 13% of domestic copper demand, is expected to see production increases of 9.1%, 13.0%, and 15.9% in April, May, and June 2025, respectively [3][94]. Futures Market - As of April 3, 2025, SHFE copper active contract positions decreased by 12.4% week-on-week, while COMEX non-commercial net long positions also fell by 12.0% [4][33]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests a bullish outlook for copper prices in 2025, recommending stocks such as Jincheng Mining, Zijin Mining, Luoyang Molybdenum, and Western Mining, while keeping an eye on Minmetals Resources [4][5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for several companies in the non-ferrous metals sector, including Zijin Mining, Luoyang Molybdenum, and Huayou Cobalt [5][6]. Core Viewpoints - The "reciprocal tariff" policy announced by the Trump administration has significantly increased global trade costs, leading to a substantial adjustment in commodity prices. However, domestic demand resilience is expected to offset external risks and support industrial metal prices [2][4]. - The report highlights that the domestic manufacturing PMI for March remained in the expansion zone at 50.5%, indicating strong internal demand that may cushion the impact of external pressures [2]. - Supply constraints in copper due to protests blocking access to key mining operations have exacerbated supply tightness, while domestic copper cable manufacturers have seen an increase in operating rates [2][3]. Summary by Sections Industrial Metals - The report notes significant price declines for industrial metals, with LME aluminum, copper, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin prices changing by -6.37%, -11.18%, -6.37%, -5.49%, -10.73%, and -2.48% respectively [1][12]. - The SMM copper concentrate import index reported a decrease of 2.26 USD/ton, reflecting ongoing supply tightness due to protests affecting key mining routes [2][39]. - The report recommends companies such as Luoyang Molybdenum, Zijin Mining, and Western Mining based on their performance and market conditions [2][5]. Energy Metals - Cobalt prices are expected to remain strong due to ongoing supply constraints from the Democratic Republic of Congo's export ban, while lithium prices have seen a decline amid stable downstream demand [3][84]. - Nickel prices are projected to continue rising due to tight supply conditions, despite some fluctuations in demand from the stainless steel sector [3][56]. Precious Metals - The report expresses optimism for precious metal prices, particularly gold, which has seen a rise due to increased safe-haven demand amid geopolitical tensions and inflation concerns [4][67]. - Silver prices are under pressure in the short term but are expected to rebound once economic conditions stabilize [4][67]. Company Earnings Forecasts - The report provides earnings forecasts and valuations for key companies, with EPS estimates for 2024E to 2026E showing growth for companies like Zijin Mining and Huayou Cobalt, with PE ratios indicating favorable valuations [5][6].