Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The lead market is in a stage of divergence between "current shortage and expected surplus." The low inventory and cost - loss bottom of secondary lead limit the downside, but without new consumption drivers and with a confirmed long - term surplus, the price will maintain a high - level range - bound pattern [3] - In the short - term, the sharp increase in LME inventory eases the overseas squeeze risk and puts pressure on LME lead. In the domestic market, the low inventory leads to a "reluctance to sell" sentiment, but the upside pressure level is difficult to break through [7] - In the long - term, the core contradiction lies in the mismatch between the profit - repair cycle of the secondary lead industry and the downstream demand recession cycle. If the downstream lithium - battery substitution is faster than the supply clearance, the lead price center will move down in the long run [9] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Chapter 1: Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 1.1 Core Contradictions - Strong current situation: Domestic lead ingot social inventory and smelter inventory have both reached 15 - month lows, offsetting the year - end weak consumption. The supply side shows a structural differentiation, with primary lead production increasing after maintenance and secondary lead production decreasing due to raw material shortages and environmental protection [3] - Weak expectations: The market expects a supply surplus in 2026, with overseas supply growth exceeding demand growth [3] 1.2 Trading - Type Strategy Recommendations - Futures unilateral: Range operation (buy low and sell high). Buy long positions in the range of 16,750 - 16,800 with a stop - loss at 16,600, and take profit and reverse to short positions around 17,100 [9] - Arbitrage strategy: Pay attention to cross - market reverse arbitrage (long SHFE and short LME) [9] - Option strategy: Sell wide - straddle options. Sell put options with an exercise price of 16500 and call options with an exercise price of 17300 [9] 1.3 Industrial Customer Operation Recommendations - For inventory management with high finished - product inventory, sell 75% of the Shanghai lead main - contract futures at 17400 to hedge against price drops [10] - For raw - material management with low raw - material inventory, buy 50% of the Shanghai lead main - contract futures at 16500 to hedge against price increases [10] Chapter 2: This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Attention Events 2.1 This Week's Important Information - **Likely positive drivers**: Supply disruptions intensify as the Australian Nyrstar Port Pirie smelter's union votes for industrial action, and the weakening US dollar provides a valuation - repair window for non - ferrous metals [11] - **Likely negative drivers**: A sharp increase in LME inventory and the cooling of interest - rate cut expectations [12] - **Spot transaction information**: The daily average price of SMM 1 lead is 16725 yuan/ton, down 0.15%; the average price of recycled lead is 16775 yuan/ton, up 0.45% [13] 2.2 Next Week's Important Events to Watch - **Domestic**: The release of China's one - year loan prime rate (LPR) on December 22; monitor whether the lead ingot social inventory will show an inflection point of accumulation due to year - end account closing [13] - **International**: The Christmas holiday in Europe and America on December 25 may cause abnormal market fluctuations; follow the progress of the strike at the Nyrstar Port Pirie smelter [14] Chapter 3: Market Interpretation 3.1 Price - Volume and Capital Interpretation - **Domestic market**: The lead price closed at 16880 yuan/ton this week. Profitable positions are mainly short in net positions. The domestic basis structure is stable, and the monthly - spread structure of Shanghai lead maintains a C - structure [15][17] - **International market**: As of 15:00 on Friday, LME lead was at 1973 US dollars/ton. The LME lead maintains a C - structure [20][38] Chapter 4: Valuation and Profit Analysis 4.1 Upstream - Downstream Profit Tracking in the Industry Chain - Analyze the processing fees of primary lead and the relationship between lead - concentrate monthly production and processing fees [43] 4.2 Import - Export Profit Tracking - Examine the import - profit and loss and import volume of lead concentrates, as well as the seasonal patterns of refined - lead and lead - battery imports and exports [45] Chapter 5: Supply - Demand and Inventory Projections 5.1 Supply - Demand Balance Sheet Projections - Analyze the seasonal patterns of domestic lead ingot total supply and actual consumption [50] 5.2 Supply - Side and Projections - Examine the monthly production of lead concentrates, electrolytic lead, and secondary refined lead, as well as the seasonal patterns of global lead - mine and refined - lead production [52][54][59] 5.3 Demand - Side and Projections - Analyze the seasonal patterns of lead - battery开工率, exports, and imports, and the inventory days of lead - battery enterprises and dealers [61][64]

投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可[2015]84 号 宏观：非农数据喜忧参半，A 股延续缩量下跌 商品日报 20251217 海外方面，美国经济呈现"就业走弱、需求尚稳、通胀黏性犹存"的格局。11 月新增非 农 6.5 万人超市场预期，但失业率升至 4.6%、创四年新高，就业结构明显恶化，全职岗位流 失、兼职就业增加，反映就业质量走弱。需求端方面，10 月核心零售超预期走强，对四季度 增长形成支撑。与此同时，12 月 Markit PMI 回落，制造业与服务业均弱于预期，就业指标 逼近停滞、价格指数显著上行，显示经济动能放缓与通胀压力并存。美股涨跌分化，美元指 数最低回落至 97.8，美债利率下行，金价、铜价窄幅震荡，供给宽松预期推动油价下跌、美 油创 2021 年来新低。 联系人 李婷、黄蕾 电子邮箱 jytzzx@jyqh.com.cn 国内方面，中央财办表示，明年将把扩大内需置于首要位置，继续实施适度宽松的货币 政策，从供需两端协同稳市场。供给端严控增量、盘活存量，推动收购存量商品房用于保障 性住房等用途，加快去库存，并有序推进"好房子"建设。A 股周二延续缩量调整，两市近 4300 只个股收跌、成交额回落 ...

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoint The report predicts that copper prices will remain in a low - level oscillation in the next one to two weeks. The price range is expected to be between 91,000 - 93,000 yuan/ton. Supply - side inventory increases and potential capacity expansion are putting pressure on prices, while the demand side is affected by weak Chinese data and substitution risks, and macro sentiment is dominated by the uncertainty of US non - farm payrolls and CPI data [3][62]. 3. Section Summaries Copper Futures Market Data Change Analysis - **Main Contract and Basis**: The SHFE price of the main contract dropped slightly from 92,280 yuan/ton on December 15th to 91,870 yuan/ton on December 16th, a decline of 0.44%. The basis weakened as the discounts of premium copper, flat - priced copper, and wet - process copper deepened, and the LME(0 - 3) discount changed from 20.69 US dollars/ton on December 10th to - 4.39 US dollars/ton on December 15th [1][59]. - **Position and Trading Volume**: LME positions increased by 2,912 lots to 351,056 lots on December 15th, indicating an expansion in position volume. However, the SMM Yangshan copper premium market had a cold offer on December 16th, with weak spot trading and a contraction in trading volume [1][59]. Industry Chain Supply - Demand and Inventory Change Analysis - **Supply Side**: There is potential for increased supply. On December 15th, Nyrstar reached an agreement with Korea Zinc involving US mines and smelters, expected to be completed in 2026. Fortescue acquired Alta Copper Company, and Hubei Zeming's 50,000 - ton anode copper project is advancing. LME inventory increased from 42,226 tons on December 15th to 45,784 tons on December 16th, an increase of 8.43%, and COMEX inventory also rose, showing supply pressure [2][60]. - **Demand Side**: Demand is weak. China's industrial output and retail sales data were below expectations. Asia - Pacific Technology's "aluminum replacing copper" project in the home appliance field may substitute some copper demand. Although Xiaomi's Wuhan smart home appliance factory was put into operation and Gree Electric Appliance is developing robot parts, the SMM North China electrolytic copper market had low activity and strong downstream wait - and - see sentiment [2][60]. - **Inventory Side**: Overall inventory increased. LME and COMEX inventories rose, while SHFE inventory remained stable at 165,875 tons, suggesting a loose supply - demand pattern [2][61]. Price Trend Judgment It is expected that copper prices will remain in a low - level oscillation in the next one to two weeks. The supply - side inventory increase and potential capacity expansion are pressuring prices, the demand side is affected by weak Chinese data and substitution risks, and macro sentiment is dominated by the uncertainty of US non - farm payrolls and CPI data. The copper price is expected to range between 91,000 - 93,000 yuan/ton [3][62].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings There is no information about industry investment ratings in the provided content. 2. Core Views of the Report - The US November non - farm payroll data showed an unexpected increase in new jobs, but the unemployment rate rose, wage growth was below expectations, and the US dollar index weakened [1][19]. - A - share and Hong Kong stock markets had a unilateral decline, possibly due to the stricter tax assessment of high - tech enterprises. High - valuation stocks were under pressure, and the market correction was a way to relieve the pressure. The national team would still support the market later [2][15]. - The positive macro - narrative was difficult to be falsified in the short term, making the bond market a weak asset. However, the problem of the fragile micro - trading structure should improve in early next year [3][25]. - The price of Indonesian low - calorie thermal coal on December 16 was weak. The port coal price fell below 750 yuan and was expected to continue to decline until mid - January, with the port 5500 - calorie coal price potentially testing the key point around 700 yuan [4][27]. - The merger of Anglo American and Teck Resources was approved by Canada. The weakening of the US November non - farm data supported copper prices, but there were still concerns about the short - term fundamentals, and copper prices were likely to continue to fluctuate at a high level [5][47]. - US API crude oil inventories decreased significantly, but oil prices continued to fall due to concerns about oversupply [6][56]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Financial News and Comments 3.1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - In November, non - farm employment increased by 64,000, slightly exceeding the expected 45,000, but the unemployment rate unexpectedly rose to 4.6%, the highest since September 2021. The December preliminary value of the US S&P Global Manufacturing PMI was 51.8 (expected 52.1, previous value 52.2), and the Services PMI preliminary value was 52.9 (expected 54, previous value 54.1). Gold prices fluctuated and closed down. The market's expectation of a January interest rate cut slightly increased, but more data was needed to verify the weakening of the employment market. Short - term gold prices continued to fluctuate [11][12]. - Investment advice: Gold prices are volatile, and attention should be paid to the回调 risk of silver [13]. 3.1.2 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - A - share and Hong Kong stock markets had a unilateral adjustment. A - share major indexes declined, with the ChiNext Index falling more than 2%. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 1.11%, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 1.51%, and the ChiNext Index fell 2.1%. The Hang Seng Index fell 1.54%, and the Hang Seng Tech Index fell 1.74%. The decline might be related to the stricter tax assessment of high - tech enterprises, and high - valuation stocks faced pressure. The subsequent national team would support the market [14][15]. - Investment advice: Allocate long positions in each stock index evenly [16]. 3.1.3 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures (US Dollar Index)) - Trump opposed the view that the Fed chairman cannot be a close friend. Trump will "soon" announce the Fed chairman candidate and will interview Fed Governor Christopher Waller this Wednesday. The US November non - farm data showed an unexpected increase in new jobs, but the unemployment rate rose to 4.6%, and wage growth was below expectations. The US dollar index weakened [17][19]. - Investment advice: The US dollar index is expected to weaken [20]. 3.1.4 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - The US November Markit Composite PMI hit a six - month low. In November, non - farm employment increased slightly better than expected, but the unemployment rate rose to a new high since September 2021, indicating a continuous cooling of the labor market. The November data had a large error due to the government shutdown, and more data was needed to verify the weakening speed of the employment market. This employment data had limited impact on boosting the US stock market, and the recent weakness of the US stock market mainly stemmed from concerns about the sustainability of AI capital expenditure. - Investment advice: Short - term volatility remains difficult to reduce, and the US stock market is expected to fluctuate at a high level [23]. 3.1.5 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The central bank conducted 135.3 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations on December 16, with a net investment of 18 billion yuan. The TL trend diverged from the stock market, T, and active bonds. The positive macro - narrative was difficult to be falsified in the short term, making the bond market a weak asset, but the problem of the fragile micro - trading structure should improve in early next year. - Investment advice: The odds of going long for trading positions are high, but the probability of success is low. It is recommended to pay attention to the right - hand side long - entry opportunities [26]. 3.2 Commodity News and Comments 3.2.1 Black Metal (Thermal Coal) - On December 16, the price of Indonesian low - calorie thermal coal was weak. The port coal price fell below 750 yuan and was expected to continue to decline. Supply pressure eased, and demand weakened after the previous replenishment. Considering seasonal pressure, the overall coal price was expected to decline until mid - January, with the port 5500 - calorie coal price potentially testing the key point around 700 yuan. - Investment advice: The port coal price is expected to continue to decline until mid - January, with the port 5500 - calorie coal price potentially testing the key point around 700 yuan [27]. 3.2.2 Black Metal (Iron Ore) - Fenix Resources planned to increase its iron ore production target to 420 - 480 million tons in the 2026 fiscal year, 470 - 530 million tons in the 2027 fiscal year, and 540 - 600 million tons in the 2028 fiscal year. Iron ore prices continued to fluctuate weakly, and the fundamentals were weak. However, supported by rigid demand for molten iron and low inventory, there was still sporadic buying. The supply - demand pressure was gradually increasing, and the market was concerned about policy changes after January 1. - Investment advice: Iron ore prices will continue to fluctuate weakly. The market is concerned about policy changes such as port storage fees and steel export licenses after January 1 [28]. 3.2.3 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - On December 16, the成交 ratio of imported soybean auctions decreased slightly. In October, Brazilian factories processed 4.39 million tons of soybeans. Due to the expectation of a bumper harvest in South America and concerns about US soybean exports, CBOT soybeans continued to fall, and CBOT soybean oil also declined, affecting domestic oils. The domestic soybean meal futures price maintained a weak oscillation. The supply of raw materials was abundant. - Investment advice: The cost of imported soybeans in China has decreased, and the soybean meal inventory is high. The soybean meal May contract is recommended to be shorted on rallies [30]. 3.2.4 Agricultural Products (Corn Starch) - The domestic corn starch spot market price was generally stable. Some enterprises slightly lowered prices to stimulate downstream purchasing. The market trading atmosphere was average, and the demand was weak. The theoretical profit of starch enterprises remained good. - Investment advice: In the short term, the price difference between corn flour may not have a fundamental basis for a large deviation from the processing cost. It may widen again after approaching the previous low [32]. 3.2.5 Agricultural Products (Corn) - On December 16, the domestic corn price was stable with a weak trend. The price of deep - processed corn in the Northeast and North China was mainly stable, and the port price decreased slightly. Affected by the expected policy auctions and the expected acceleration of farmers' sales, the spot price weakened slightly, and the futures price continued to decline. - Investment advice: In the medium - to - long - term, the price difference between 3 - 7 and 3 - 9 is expected to show a reverse spread during the farmers' grain - selling season. In the medium - to - short - term, a short - selling strategy on rallies for 03 and 05 contracts is recommended. In the medium - to - long - term, pay attention to the long - entry opportunities on dips for 07 and 09 contracts, but the unilateral strategy should be more based on drivers [34]. 3.2.6 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - From December 1 - 15, the production of Malaysian palm oil decreased by 2.97% month - on - month. The oil market was still weakly oscillating. For palm oil, the production decline was limited, and the supply pressure could only be relieved if the decline increased or export data improved. Soybean and rapeseed oils currently lacked further drivers. - Investment advice: Although the high - frequency data of Malaysian palm oil production turned negative, the supply pressure in the producing area has not been released. It is not yet the time for unilateral long - entry. Consider selling out - of - the - money put options [37]. 3.2.7 Agricultural Products (Hogs) - Juxing Agriculture and Animal Husbandry's controlling shareholder pledged 18 million shares. Tiankang Bio planned to acquire a 51% stake in Xinjiang Qiangdu Animal Husbandry for 1.275 billion yuan. The pig industry was in a loss - making range, and there was no clear signal of large - scale production capacity reduction. In the short term, the spot price depends on the supply side, and the main contract is expected to continue to oscillate. In the medium - to - long - term, if deep losses and the epidemic resonate, the far - month contracts may have a valuation repair window. - Investment advice: Hold short positions in the near - month contracts cautiously and gradually pay attention to the medium - to - long - term layout opportunities for far - month contracts at low levels [38]. 3.2.8 Non - ferrous Metals (Lead) - On December 15, the [LME0 - 3 lead] was at a discount of $51.52 per ton. The first batch of lead ingots from the Xinjiang Huoshaoyun lead - zinc mine project was officially launched. Anhui Fuyang launched a Level II emergency response, and local regenerative lead smelters cut production by 50%. LME lead and Shanghai lead both oscillated and declined. The supply of regenerative lead may be under pressure, and the demand is gradually weakening. - Investment advice: Unilaterally, pay attention to short - selling opportunities on rallies in the short term. For arbitrage, wait and see [41]. 3.2.9 Non - ferrous Metals (Zinc) - On December 15, the [LME0 - 3 zinc] was at a discount of $31.61 per ton. The first - phase ignition trial operation of Zhongkuang Resources' Tsumeb smelter was carried out. Nyrstar reached an agreement with Korea Zinc on the acquisition of assets in Tennessee. LME zinc inventories increased significantly, the contango structure appeared, and the delivery risk weakened. Domestic smelters' production cuts were gradually realized, and zinc demand was generally strong. - Investment advice: Unilaterally, pay attention to mid - term long - entry opportunities on dips. For arbitrage, hold long positions in the month - spread positive arbitrage; maintain the internal - external reverse arbitrage strategy [43]. 3.2.10 Non - ferrous Metals (Copper) - The merger of Anglo American and Teck Resources was approved by Canada. Peru's copper production in October increased by 4.8% year - on - year. Korea Zinc planned to invest $7.4 billion in building a smelter in the United States. The weakening of the US November non - farm data supported copper prices, but there were concerns about the short - term fundamentals. - Investment advice: Unilaterally, copper prices are likely to continue to fluctuate at a high level. Maintain a long - entry strategy on dips. For arbitrage, wait and see [47]. 3.2.11 Non - ferrous Metals (Nickel) - LME nickel inventories decreased by 84 tons, and SHFE nickel futures warrants increased by 821 tons. The Fed's dovish statement boosted risk appetite, but the US economy was highly dependent on AI investment. Indonesia gave a 30 - day grace period to enterprises that did not apply for RKAB, and the supply may not be disrupted before January. The price of nickel ore is high, and the cost of Indonesian iron plants is in a loss state. The demand for nickel sulfate is expected to decrease. - Investment advice: In the short term, the disk is expected to run weakly at a low level. Do not chase short positions. Wait for a rebound to lay out short positions. In the mid - term, pay attention to Indonesia's contraction of RKAB quotas and cooperate with some call options [50]. 3.2.12 Non - ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - Li - FT Power acquired Winsome Resources for approximately $86.8 million. The central economic work conference may support the power demand. The resumption of the Xiawo mine may be postponed to mid - January. The supply of lithium carbonate is expected to increase, and the inventory decline rate will slow down. The downstream purchasing willingness has decreased, and the production of cathode materials has declined. - Investment advice: In the short term, the strong inventory decline trend and the delay of the large - factory resumption support the bullish sentiment. After the resumption, combined with the decline in off - season demand, the inventory decline rate will slow down and turn to inventory accumulation. The disk may face a correction. In the long - term, adopt a long - entry strategy on dips [53]. 3.2.13 Non - ferrous Metals (Tin) - On December 15, the [LME0 - 3 tin] was at a premium of $50 per ton. Domestic tin inventories continued to accumulate. Indonesia's tin exports in November increased significantly. The supply of tin ore from Myanmar is increasing, and the production of the Bisie mine in Congo (Kinshasa) is expected to increase. The spot market trading is dull, and the demand is weak. - Investment advice: Tin prices are expected to continue to fluctuate at a high level in the short term. Be vigilant against the risk of price decline due to the easing of geopolitical unrest or capital outflow [55]. 3.2.14 Energy Chemicals (Crude Oil) - US API crude oil inventories decreased by 9.322 million barrels in the week ending December 12, but gasoline and refined oil inventories increased. Oil prices continued to fall due to concerns about oversupply, and the possible progress in Russia - Ukraine negotiations also reduced the risk premium. - Investment advice: Oil prices are expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [57]. 3.2.15 Energy Chemicals (Carbon Emissions) - The closing price of CEA on December 16 was 58.71 yuan per ton, up 1.4% from the previous day. After the release of the quota allocation plan for three major industries, the impact of the carry - over policy on the CEA price was mainly emotional. In the short term, the market will oscillate horizontally. - Investment advice: The CEA price will oscillate in the short term [60]. 3.2.16 Energy Chemicals (Soda Ash) - The price of soda ash in the northwest market fluctuated slightly on December 16. Some enterprises' prices decreased. The production of soda ash enterprises was stable, and the inventory did not change much. Downstream demand was average, and the market was in an oversupply situation. - Investment advice: In the capacity expansion cycle, maintain a bearish view on soda ash in the medium term. Short far - month contracts on rallies [62]. 3.2.17 Energy Chemicals (Float Glass) - The price of float glass in the Hubei market on December 16 was flat. The glass disk oscillated slightly. The production and sales of original sheet manufacturers in many places were weak, and the inventory pressure was high. The glass market was still in an oversupply situation. - Investment advice: Although there have been many cold repairs of float glass production lines since November, the glass market is still oversupplied. In the medium term, short on rallies [63]. 3.2.18 Shipping Index (Container Freight Rates) - MSC proposed an acquisition offer to ZIM, and Hapag - Lloyd is also a competitor. The market is uncertain about the January shipping capacity supply and price increase. If the MSK's new cabin opening quotation does not exceed market expectations, consider short - selling opportunities on rallies. - Investment advice: Pay attention to the MSK's new cabin opening quotation. If it does not significantly exceed market expectations, consider short - selling opportunities on rallies [65].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overseas markets are concerned about the US non - farm payrolls, with weak risk appetite, while the domestic economic data continues to be weak, and the A - share market is expected to be weak in the short term, and the bond market remains on the sidelines [2][3] - Precious metals may have a technical correction, but platinum and palladium are expected to rise; copper prices will fluctuate in the short term; aluminum prices will fluctuate at a high level; alumina's upward space is limited; casting aluminum will fluctuate at a high level; zinc prices are adjusting and waiting for macro - guidance; lead prices will fluctuate weakly; tin prices will continue to adjust at a high level; industrial silicon prices are expected to rebound; steel prices will fluctuate weakly; iron ore prices will be under pressure; coking coal and coke prices will fluctuate weakly; soybean and rapeseed meal prices will fluctuate; palm oil prices will fluctuate in a range [4][6][8][10][11][12][14][15][16][18][19][20][22][24] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macroeconomics - Overseas: Fed officials' remarks affect market expectations, Japan's manufacturing confidence supports central bank rate hikes, and before important data releases, overseas market risk appetite is weak [2] - Domestic: November economic data is cold, with production showing resilience and demand cooling further. The A - share market is expected to be weak in the short - term, and the bond market remains on the sidelines [3] 3.2 Precious Metals - International precious metals futures generally rose on Monday, with platinum hitting the daily limit in the domestic market. There is a risk of a technical correction in gold and silver, while platinum and palladium are expected to rise. Pay attention to the US non - farm payrolls and retail data [4][5] 3.3 Copper - On Monday, Shanghai copper's main contract fluctuated at a high level. With a weak US dollar and various macro and industrial factors, copper prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term [6][7] 3.4 Aluminum - On Monday, Shanghai aluminum's main contract fell, and LME aluminum was flat. The market is waiting for the US non - farm payrolls data, and with inventory accumulation and seasonal demand slowdown, aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate at a high level [8][9] 3.5 Alumina - On Monday, the alumina futures main contract rose. Although the price has rebounded, there is a lack of continuous upward momentum, and the upward space is limited [10] 3.6 Casting Aluminum - On Monday, the casting aluminum alloy futures main contract fell. Affected by raw materials and environmental protection, both supply and demand are weakening, but with cost support, it will fluctuate at a high level [11] 3.7 Zinc - On Monday, Shanghai zinc's main contract fluctuated weakly. With the approach of the US non - farm payrolls data, the market is cautious. In the long - term, overseas supply will improve, and currently, the supply pressure is decreasing, so zinc prices will adjust in the short term [12] 3.8 Lead - On Monday, Shanghai lead's main contract fluctuated weakly. With the improvement of overseas supply in the medium - long term and the increase in inventory, the support of low inventory is weakening, but the downward space is limited [13][14] 3.9 Tin - On Monday, Shanghai tin's main contract adjusted downward. With the release of multiple economic data and the increase in Indonesian tin exports, the macro and micro support for tin prices is weakening, and it will continue to adjust at a high level [15] 3.10 Industrial Silicon - On Monday, industrial silicon rebounded at a low level. Supported by cost and market sentiment, it is expected to continue to rebound in the short term [16][17] 3.11 Steel (Rebar and Hot Rolled Coil) - On Monday, steel futures fluctuated. With weak terminal demand data, steel prices are expected to fluctuate weakly [18] 3.12 Iron Ore - On Monday, iron ore futures fluctuated weakly. With the increase in supply and weak demand, iron ore prices are expected to be under pressure [19] 3.13 Coking Coal and Coke (Double - Coking) - On Monday, double - coking futures fluctuated weakly. With weak supply - demand fundamentals, prices are expected to fluctuate weakly [20][21] 3.14 Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - On Monday, soybean and rapeseed meal contracts fluctuated. With positive South American crop prospects and concerns about US soybean exports, the domestic market will maintain a short - term pattern of near - strong and far - weak, and the main contracts will fluctuate [22][23] 3.15 Palm Oil - On Monday, palm oil contracts fell. With weak export demand and expected inventory increase, palm oil prices are expected to fluctuate in a range. Pay attention to the support at the lower limit of the previous low range [24][26] 3.16 Metal Trading Data - Provides the closing prices, price changes, price change percentages, trading volumes, and open interest of various metal futures contracts in the main domestic and international markets on December 15, 2025 [27] 3.17 Industry Data Perspective - Compares the prices, inventories, and other data of various metals on December 15, 2025, with those on December 12, 2025, including copper, nickel, zinc, lead, aluminum, alumina, tin, precious metals, steel, iron ore, coking coal, coke, lithium carbonate, industrial silicon, and soybean meal [28][31][33]

Report Industry Investment Rating The provided content does not mention the report industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In 2026, supported by the dual - loose expectations of monetary and fiscal policies in the US, the economy is expected to recover moderately, and the US dollar is likely to fluctuate at a high level, reducing the suppression of risk assets. China will enter the first year of the "15th Five - Year Plan", with the economy growing steadily, and fiscal and monetary policies remaining moderately loose. The resonance of domestic and foreign policies is expected to improve the marginal demand for commodities [4][107]. - In terms of supply, the global zinc concentrate increment in 2026 will be about 500,000 metal tons, narrowing compared to 2025, and the raw material supply - demand will turn to a tight balance. The long - term processing fee is expected to rise, but the recovery of overseas refined zinc supply is limited. In China, the smelting capacity continues to expand, but the growth rate of refined zinc production will slow down to 5%, and the actual capacity release of the Huoshaoyun project is the core variable of the domestic supply pattern [4][107]. - The demand shows the characteristics of "slowing growth and sector differentiation". The infrastructure investment growth rate is expected to recover to 4% - 5%, and the projects will be launched in advance. The policy of replacing old with new supports durable - goods consumption, but the growth of automobile production and sales slows down, the policy effect of home appliances weakens, and exports are under pressure. The real estate is still at the bottom - grinding stage, and its drag on zinc consumption is weakening. In the new energy field, the new photovoltaic installations turn negative due to the high base, while the wind power maintains positive growth. The export resilience of primary products will provide consumption increments [4][107]. - Overall, the global zinc mining and smelting are still in the expansion cycle, the supply growth of zinc elements exceeds the demand growth, and the oversupply situation expands slightly. The core logic of zinc price pressure remains unchanged. However, the macro - drive is positive, and the positive expectations of copper and aluminum are expected to partially offset the short - board of zinc fundamentals. In 2026, the zinc price is difficult to show a unilateral market, and it is expected to fluctuate widely in the range of 21,000 - 24,500 yuan/ton. There will be phased unilateral opportunities during the macro - micro resonance stage, and the structural opportunities are anchored on the main line of price ratio repair [4][108]. Summary According to the Directory I. Zinc Market Review - In 2025, the zinc market was weak overall, with prominent internal - external structural contradictions. The price fluctuated downward under the influence of macro - policies and fundamental factors. In the first half of the year, factors such as Trump's possible tariff policy and the Fed's suspension of interest - rate cuts suppressed the zinc price. In the second half, the market was in a pattern of "repeated policy expectations and stalemate fundamentals", and the Shanghai zinc main contract fluctuated in the range of 21,600 - 23,200 yuan/ton. The LME zinc showed a trend of first falling and then rising, and the price rebounded due to the decline in LME inventory [9][10]. II. Macroeconomic Analysis 2.1 US - In 2025, the US economy achieved a soft landing. The GDP growth rate was 2%, lower than 2.8% in 2024. The ISM manufacturing PMI was in the contraction range, the employment market declined, and inflation rebounded moderately. The Fed started preventive interest - rate cuts in September. In 2026, the GDP growth rate is expected to be 2.1%. The impact of tariffs will weaken, and inflation may decline slightly. The fiscal and monetary policies are expected to remain loose, but the change of the Fed chairman may affect the interest - rate cut path. The US dollar is expected to fluctuate, which will relieve the suppression of commodities [13][14]. 2.2 Eurozone - In 2025, the Eurozone economy recovered slightly in the first three quarters, with a GDP growth rate of 1.2%. Inflation dropped to 2.1%, and the ECB kept the key interest rate unchanged since July. In 2026, the GDP growth rate is expected to be 1.1%, and the internal differentiation will continue. Germany's economy may recover, while France's growth may slow down. Inflation is expected to stabilize around 2%, and the ECB's monetary policy is expected to remain stable. The fiscal policy may expand structurally [15][16]. 2.3 China - In 2025, China's economic growth showed a "high - in - the - front and low - in - the - back" feature, with an annual growth rate of about 5%. Exports were strong, but domestic consumption and private investment were weak. In 2026, as the first year of the "15th Five - Year Plan", the economy is expected to grow steadily, with a GDP growth target of about 5%. The quarterly growth rate may be "low - in - the - front and high - in - the - back". Exports are expected to benefit from the relaxation of Sino - US trade frictions and the fiscal loosening in Europe and the US. The fiscal policy will be more active, and the monetary policy will remain moderately loose [17][18]. III. Zinc Fundamental Analysis 3.1 Zinc Ore Supply - In 2025, the global zinc concentrate new capacity was 700,000 tons, with an increment of 700,000 metal tons to 12.7 million tons. In 2026, the new capacity will narrow to 500,000 tons to 13.2 million tons. The domestic market will contribute the main increment. The supply - demand pattern is expected to turn from loose to tight balance [29][30]. - The internal and external processing fees first rose and then fell in 2025. The domestic zinc concentrate processing fee dropped to 2,000 yuan/metal ton at the end of the year. The import processing fee also declined in November. The CZSPT proposed a 2026Q1 import processing fee guidance of 105 - 120 US dollars/dry ton. In 2025, the zinc ore import increased significantly, and it is expected to remain above 5 million tons in 2026 [36][37][38]. 3.2 Refined Zinc Supply - In 2025, the global refined zinc production increased by 4.12% year - on - year. Overseas production decreased by 5.48% in the first nine months, while China's increased by 7.03%. In 2026, overseas refined zinc production is expected to increase slightly by 50,000 - 100,000 tons, but the recovery is limited due to factors such as cost and raw material supply [44][48]. - In 2025, China's refined zinc production increased by 10.7% year - on - year. In 2026, the production is expected to increase by 350,000 tons to 7.2 million tons, with a growth rate slowing down to 5.1%. The actual production of the Xinjiang Kunlun Zinc Industry project is an important variable. In 2025, the net import of refined zinc was about 250,000 - 260,000 tons, and in 2026, the import and export volume may offset each other [53][54][57]. 3.3 Refined Zinc Demand - Globally, in 2025, the refined zinc consumption increased by 3.9% year - on - year. In 2026, India's zinc demand is expected to continue to expand, the US zinc consumption is expected to grow steadily, and Europe's traditional consumption may improve marginally while the green industry will support consumption [67][68]. - In China, in 2025, the apparent consumption increased by more than 8%, but the actual consumption was weak. The primary product exports were strong, and the galvanized sheet export is expected to continue to grow in 2026. Traditional consumption such as infrastructure and real estate was weak in 2025, and infrastructure investment is expected to recover in 2026. The real estate is still at the bottom - grinding stage, and its drag on zinc consumption will weaken. The growth of automobile and home appliance sales will slow down in 2026. In the new energy field, the new photovoltaic installations may turn negative, while the wind power will maintain positive growth [71][73][77]. 3.4 Global Visible Inventory - In 2025, the global visible inventory had prominent structural contradictions. The LME inventory decreased, and the low inventory supported the LME zinc price. The domestic inventory increased, suppressing the Shanghai zinc price. In 2026, the LME inventory is expected to have limited recovery, and the domestic high - inventory pressure may be difficult to relieve, especially in Q1 [105][106]. IV. Summary and Outlook for the Future - The macro - environment in 2026 is expected to be favorable for the zinc market. The supply - demand pattern will change, with the supply growth narrowing and the demand showing sector differentiation. The zinc price is expected to fluctuate widely, and there will be phased and structural opportunities [107][108].

Core Insights - Trafigura Group's subsidiary Nyrstar has commenced the casting of antimony metal at its Port Pirie metal plant in South Australia, marking a significant milestone in the context of the US-Australia critical minerals and rare earth framework [1] - The project received a joint investment of AUD 135 million (approximately USD 87 million) from the South Australian state government and the Australian federal government, which is a crucial part of Australia's strategy to become a core supplier of critical minerals for Western allies [1] - Antimony is essential as an alloy hardener for other metals and is critical for semiconductor manufacturing in the electronics and defense sectors [1] Production Goals - Nyrstar anticipates exporting its first batch of antimony metal in the first half of next year, with a target to increase annual production to 2,000 tons by the end of 2026 [1] - The facility aims to enhance refined antimony metal production capacity to 5,000 tons annually by 2028 [1] Strategic Importance - South Australian Premier Peter Malinauskas emphasized that Nyrstar's objectives include exploring the potential production of not only antimony but also bismuth, tellurium, germanium, and indium, which are vital for the future of clean energy and important defense and technology sectors [1] - Australia's Trade Minister noted that since signing an agreement with the US in October, the country's strategic critical mineral reserves have garnered increased attention from allies such as the EU [1]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The supply of electrolytic lead and recycled lead is expected to increase in November, with electrolytic lead supply rising to 33.47 tons and recycled refined lead supply increasing to 28.58 tons. However, the import window for lead ingots is closed, and battery consumption remains resilient. As a result, social inventory is expected to rise slightly, and the lead price is likely to remain in a high - level oscillatory pattern in November [2][70] Group 3: Summary by Directory I. Lead Market Review - In October, the main contract price of Shanghai lead futures fluctuated strongly, reaching a mid - month high of 17,660 yuan/ton and finally closing at 17,390 yuan/ton, with a monthly increase of 2.66%. London lead continued to oscillate widely, closing at 2,025 US dollars/ton at the end of October, with a monthly increase of 1.96% [7] II. Lead Fundamental Analysis 2.1 Lead Ore Supply Situation - **Global lead concentrate supply is slowly recovering**: From January to August 2025, the global lead concentrate output was 295.6 tons, with a cumulative year - on - year increase of 1.29%. It is predicted that global lead mine supply will grow by 0.7% to 457 tons in 2025 and 2.2% to 467 tons in 2026. In China, the lead concentrate output from January to September was 124.91 tons, with a cumulative year - on - year increase of 11.54%. With the cold weather, the monthly output is expected to decline month - on - month but remain positive year - on - year [10][11] - **Lead concentrate processing fees remain low, and silver concentrate imports decline month - on - month**: In November, the average domestic lead concentrate processing fee was 350 yuan/metal ton, down 50 yuan/metal ton month - on - month. The average import processing fee decreased as well. In September, lead concentrate imports increased month - on - month but decreased year - on - year. Silver concentrate imports in September decreased both year - on - year and month - on - month, and future imports are expected to be under pressure [17][18] 2.2 Refined Lead Supply Situation - **Global refined lead supply growth is slow**: From January to August 2025, global refined lead output was 881.3 tons, with a cumulative year - on - year increase of 2.31%. It is predicted that global refined lead output will increase by 2% to 1,334 tons in 2025 and 0.98% to 1,347.2 tons in 2026 [22] - **Refineries are in a state of reduction and resumption, and the monthly supply of electrolytic lead continues to rise**: In October, electrolytic lead output was 32.6 tons. In November, with the resumption of production in multiple regions, the output is expected to increase to 33.47 tons [27] - **The price of waste batteries is stable with a slight increase, and the supply of recycled lead increases marginally**: In October, the average price of waste batteries increased slightly. The output of recycled refined lead in October was 27.29 tons. In November, with the resumption of production of refineries and the output of new capacities, the output is expected to increase to 28.58 tons [33][34] 2.3 Refined Lead Demand Situation - **Global refined lead demand situation**: From January to August 2025, global refined lead consumption was 875.6 tons, with a cumulative year - on - year increase of 2.2%. It is predicted that global refined lead demand will grow by 1.8% to 1,325 tons in 2025 and 0.9% to 1,337 tons in 2026. The overseas lead - acid battery market has some resilience but is difficult to improve significantly [45][46] - **At the end of the month, battery enterprises cut production, and the operating rate of lead - acid battery enterprises declined**: In October, the operating rate of battery enterprises first rose and then fell. In November, it is expected to rise slightly but not significantly [48][49] - **The Shanghai - London ratio is favorable for lead product imports, and high overseas tariffs and anti - dumping measures put pressure on battery exports**: In September, lead exports decreased month - on - month, and imports increased. Battery exports decreased. It is expected that lead exports will remain low in October, and imports will increase significantly [50][51] - **Terminal growth is slow, and energy storage performs well**: In the automotive sector, production and sales are growing well. In the electric bicycle sector, the new national standard is expected to increase lead consumption. The energy storage battery market continues to grow [58][60] 2.4 Global Visible Inventory Drops from High Levels - In October, LME inventory first increased and then decreased, and the end - of - year high - inventory pressure is difficult to relieve significantly. Social inventory continued to decline in October and is expected to stop falling and rise in November [64] III. Summary and Future Outlook - The supply of electrolytic lead and recycled lead is expected to increase in November, but the import window for lead ingots is closed. Battery consumption remains resilient. Social inventory is expected to rise slightly, and the lead price is likely to remain in a high - level oscillatory pattern in November [70]

Core Insights - The Atlantic Council report highlights the "gallium shortage" faced by the U.S. following China's export controls on gallium and related materials, emphasizing the need for the U.S. to explore "waste-to-gallium" recovery methods [2][3][4] Global Gallium Supply Dependence - China is the largest holder of gallium reserves, with approximately 190,000 tons, accounting for about 68% of global reserves, while the U.S. holds only 4,500 tons [3] - China's production of gallium exceeds 90% of global output, significantly impacting the global tech industry due to recent export controls [4] Strategic Importance and Supply Challenges - Gallium is critical for advanced electronic systems, including military applications, yet the U.S. lacks domestic production and government stockpiles to mitigate the impact of China's export restrictions [4][5] - The U.S. consumes about 20 tons of gallium annually for defense, but its reliance on imports has created vulnerabilities in its supply chain [5][6] Waste-to-Gallium Recovery Solutions - The report suggests that the U.S. should focus on recovering gallium from existing industrial processes rather than seeking new mining opportunities [7] - Potential recovery methods include extracting gallium from aluminum refining, zinc smelting, and semiconductor waste, which could help diversify and stabilize the supply chain [8][10] Recommendations for Increasing Domestic Gallium Supply - The U.S. can enhance gallium supply through various strategies, such as improving recovery processes at aluminum and zinc plants, and collaborating with allies for gallium recycling [9][10] - Establishing more facilities for recycling semiconductor waste could provide high-purity gallium, essential for defense applications [10]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The Fed restarted the interest - rate cut cycle, which is favorable for risk assets, but the US government shutdown and the resurgence of China - US tariff conflicts have increased macro uncertainties. China's economy faces certain pressures, and new policy - based financial instruments are expected to strengthen economic growth this year, with the possibility of further policy stimulus still existing [3][88]. - The divergence between domestic and foreign zinc processing fees has intensified. The inflection point of domestic ore processing fees has emerged, and there is still room for adjustment as smelters' winter storage demand rises. The continuous decline in the price of by - product sulfuric acid has compressed smelter profit margins, reducing production enthusiasm. Although refined zinc supply will recover in October, the room for further growth is limited. The current Shanghai - London price ratio is near the critical point for zinc ingot exports, and the opening of the export window is expected to relieve the domestic surplus pressure [3][88]. - The peak consumption season is somewhat dull. The start - up rate of primary enterprises has improved month - on - month but is weaker than the same period. They maintain a just - in - time purchasing rhythm and lack the willingness to actively replenish inventories. In the terminal market, infrastructure has a marginal repair demand and may become an important support for demand in the future; the consumption of automobiles and household appliances remains resilient, the performance in the wind and solar sectors is divergent, the export of galvanized sheets faces weakening pressure, and the real estate sector continues to be weak [3][88]. - Overall, there are more overseas macro disturbances, and market sentiment may fluctuate. The macro trend is less clear. Fundamentally, the situation remains strong overseas and weak domestically. The resumption of smelter production has promoted supply recovery, and demand lacks significant highlights, leading to an increase in supply - demand pressure. However, the expectation of zinc ingot exports is strengthening, which will relieve the domestic surplus pressure, while the liquidity risk of LME zinc will also decrease. These two forces will balance each other, and zinc prices are expected to fluctuate weakly [3][90]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Zinc Market Review - In September, the main contract price of SHFE zinc first rose and then declined, seeking support. At the beginning of the month, supported by the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation and the peak consumption season, zinc prices fluctuated strongly. After the Fed cut interest rates, the market sold on the news, and the strong US economic data supported the US dollar, causing zinc prices to fall to 21,825 yuan/ton, with a monthly decline of 1.42%. LME zinc rose first and then fell. In the first half of the month, it broke through $2,900/ton and reached a high of $3,003.5/ton. After the interest - rate cut and hawkish remarks from Powell, it corrected and closed at $2,956.5/ton, with a monthly increase of 5.06% [8]. 3.2 Macroeconomic Analysis 3.2.1 US Situation - The US economy is cooling but remains resilient. The Q2 real GDP grew by 2.08% year - on - year and 3.8% quarter - on - quarter. In August, retail sales increased by 4.8% year - on - year and 0.6% month - on - month. In September, the ISM manufacturing PMI was 49.1, but new orders declined. The non - manufacturing PMI was 50, with business activity falling below the boom - bust line. The ADP employment data in September decreased by 32,000, and inflation continued to rise slowly. In September, the Fed cut interest rates by 25bp to 4.0 - 4.25% [11][12]. - The US government shut down in late September, and Trump announced additional tariffs on China in October, which increased market uncertainties [13]. 3.2.2 Eurozone Situation - In September, the eurozone's manufacturing PMI fell to 49.5, while the services PMI rose to 51.4. Inflation rose slightly, and the unemployment rate dropped to 6.2% in August. The ECB kept interest rates unchanged in September, and its officials' statements were cautious [14]. 3.2.3 China's Situation - In August, most of China's economic indicators continued to decline. Exports, industrial production, consumption, and investment all showed different degrees of slowdown. The manufacturing PMI in September was 49.8%, and the non - manufacturing PMI fell to 50.0%. The consumption during the National Day holiday was structurally differentiated [16]. - Policy support is expected. The Politburo meeting in September decided to hold the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th CPC Central Committee, and new policy - based financial instruments worth 500 billion yuan are expected to boost infrastructure investment [17]. 3.3 Zinc Fundamental Analysis 3.3.1 Zinc Ore Supply - Global zinc concentrate supply has recovered as expected. From January to July 2025, the cumulative output was 7.1994 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.02%. Overseas zinc concentrate output is expected to increase by about 550,000 tons this year, and domestic output is expected to increase by about 100,000 tons [30]. - The divergence between domestic and foreign processing fees has intensified. In October, the average domestic processing fee was 3,650 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 300 yuan/ton, while the average import processing fee was $87.51/dry ton, a month - on - month increase of $16.83/dry ton. In August 2025, 467,300 tons of zinc concentrate were imported, and from January to August, the cumulative import volume was 3.5027 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 43.06% [34][35]. 3.3.2 Refined Zinc Supply - Overseas smelters are operating at low loads, while China contributes to the increase in supply. From January to July 2025, global refined zinc output was 7.911 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.15%. Overseas output decreased by 4.7%, while China's output increased by 2.65% [41]. - From January to September 2025, the cumulative output of refined zinc was 5.0691 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.85%. In September, the output was 600,100 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.2%. It is expected that the output in October will increase by 3.77% to 622,700 tons. In August, 25,600 tons of refined zinc were imported, and from January to August, the cumulative import volume was 235,500 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 11.81%. The import window remains closed, and the export window may open [45][46]. 3.3.3 Refined Zinc Demand - Globally, from January to July 2025, refined zinc consumption was 7.843 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.12%. Overseas consumption increased by 1.33%, and domestic consumption increased by 2.96%. The supply surplus in the global zinc market was 72,000 tons, a significant reduction from the previous year [56]. - In the overseas market, the real estate and automotive sectors showed marginal improvement. In the US, new home sales in August reached an annualized rate of 800,000 units, and new car sales in August were 1.4913 million units. In the eurozone, the construction confidence index improved slightly [57]. - In September, the start - up rate of primary processing enterprises showed a slow recovery. In August, 1.0975 million tons of galvanized sheets were exported, and from January to August, the cumulative export volume was 9.2182 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 10.96% [60][62]. - In the traditional infrastructure sector, investment growth has declined, but there is a demand for recovery. In the real estate sector, investment and sales continue to be weak. In the automotive and household appliance sectors, production and sales are resilient. In the emerging consumption sector, the photovoltaic industry is expected to drive zinc consumption growth, and the wind power industry is also developing well [64][72][73]. 3.3.4 Global Visible Inventory - In September, LME zinc inventory continued to decline, reaching 38,200 tons at the end of the month. The LME 0 - 3 spot premium rose and then slightly declined to $55.98/ton. - In September, China's social inventory first increased and then decreased, reaching 141,400 tons at the end of the month. There is a strong expectation of inventory accumulation during the National Day holiday in early October, but inventory is expected to decline again after the holiday [87].