研究报告 橡胶周报 供需矛盾并不明显，盘面或将维持震荡 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2012】1087 号 投资咨询资格证号：Z0011566 电话：0931-8894545 邮箱：2367823725@qq.com 的免责声明。 摘要： 【行情复盘】 研究员：张正卯 上周天然橡胶主力合约 RU2601 价格在 15125-15580 元/吨 之间运行，上周 RU2601 期货价格震荡运行，总体微幅上涨。 期货从业资格证号：F0305828 截至 2025 年 11 月 21 日上周五下午收盘，天然橡胶主力合 约 RU2601 报收 15240 元/吨，当周上涨 25 点，涨幅 0.16%。 【后市展望】 上周国内天然橡胶期货主力合约价格震荡运行，总体微幅 上涨。 报告日期：2025 年 11 月 24 日星期一 展望后市，宏观方面，受非农数据影响，美联储降息预期 减弱，影响商品情绪。从基本面来看，供给方面，橡胶成本端 存在支撑。10 月天然橡胶进口数量同比小幅增加，1-10 月，中 国累计进口天然及合成橡胶增幅明显。需求方面，上周轮胎企 业开工率较上周均有下降，全钢胎、半钢胎延续累库累库。终 端车市方面， ...

Core Viewpoint - The domestic chemical market is expected to face an oversupply in 2025, with prices of various chemical products hitting new lows in November, indicating a weak market driven primarily by macroeconomic factors rather than crude oil prices [1][8]. Market Trends - The chemical market experienced fluctuations from January to March, with a peak in January followed by a decline due to geopolitical tensions and tariff impacts, leading to a low opening after the Spring Festival [3][4]. - In the second quarter, the market was heavily influenced by U.S. tariffs and trade tensions, resulting in significant volatility, with a brief recovery in June due to positive trade negotiations [5]. - The third quarter saw a weak overall market, but a slight recovery was noted due to domestic supply-side reforms and the elimination of outdated production capacity [7]. - The fourth quarter continued to reflect weak demand against high supply, with a notable decline in prices across multiple chemical products, although a slight rebound was expected towards the end of December [8]. Price Movements - As of November 18, 2025, 116 out of 131 monitored chemical products had decreased in price since the beginning of the year, representing 89% of the total, while only 15 products saw price increases [8]. - The leading price increase was observed in the sulfur market, with a rise of 2,420 yuan/ton (+156.13%), while products like SEBS and butadiene experienced significant declines of -26.44% and -39.69%, respectively [9]. Profitability - Most chemical products are operating at marginal or negative profit margins, with many experiencing increased losses compared to the beginning of the year, indicating a challenging operational environment for chemical companies [8].

中美谈判已经结束，双方达成了协议，暂时停止了关税问题，达成了为期一年的休战。然而，美国的一 些州却觉得这还不够，认为特朗普并没有和中国完全达成协议，贸易依然不稳定，因此他们决定绕开特 朗普，直接与中国进行谈判。 在10月举行的中美谈判中，双方达成了一项共识：将原本计划实施的关税延期一年。美国承诺会降低芬 太尼的关税，并暂停一系列制裁措施，而中国则同意增加对美国农产品的采购，并暂停部分反制措施。 报道指出，华盛顿州是美国最大的出口市场之一，而俄勒冈州则是中国的第二大出口市场。对于这两个 州来说，失去中国市场的代价实在太大，他们无法承受与中国发生贸易冲突的风险。 判越权，他也不会轻易放弃已经达成的贸易协议，因此他会保留301调查作为继续施压的手段。 美国各 州很清楚特朗普的手段，因此决定通过地方代表团与中国建立更紧密的联系，表达他们希望与中国保持 良好关系的意图。早在特朗普提出对等关税政策时，加州州长纽森就公开表示，加州可以单独与中国进 行谈判。加州的经济实力强大，单是加州就为美国贡献了4万亿美元的GDP。加州州长与特朗普在政策 上意见分歧，并且公开与特朗普政府保持距离，声称特朗普的政策与加州无关。 总体来说，美 ...

高市早苗惹了麻烦，在日本方面的最新反制措施实施后，中方已作出回应。与此同时，美国方面也传出消息称，特朗普已经安排了他的核心盟友计划访问中 国。 在中美贸易关系初步得到缓解后，美国决定利用这一机会加速推动与中国的互动，计划派遣一支代表团前往中国。根据彭博社最近的报道，美国参议员史蒂 夫·戴恩斯将率团访问中国，访问的时间定在明年初，主要到访北京和上海这两个城市。通过这一细节我们可以看出，中日之间的外交摩擦并未影响到中美 之间的沟通节奏。换句话说，尽管高市早苗引发了争议，中方也已对日本发出警告，但这些都不是特朗普最关心的问题。从戴恩斯的行程安排来看，他此行 的目的不仅仅是讨论中美关系，还包括推动经贸合作，而这才是特朗普关注的重点。戴恩斯亲自带队，更体现了特朗普对此次访问的高度重视。 正是因为有这些经验，他比那些仅会纸上谈兵的华盛顿政客更清楚中美之间的实际利益所在。此次特朗普选择戴恩斯亲自带队，时间上也非常有讲究——他 的访问正好与特朗普计划于明年4月访问中国的行程接近，显然这次访问是为特朗普的访华之行做准备。一方面，戴恩斯此行可能是为了跟进中美刚刚达成 的贸易协议，另一方面，也有可能是为了提前商讨特朗普访问时的核心 ...

【国富豆系研究周报】USDA下调美豆出口预估，关注出口需求变化 20251117 国富研究 国富研究 2025年11月17日 07:20 上海 油脂油料周度行情 国量的货 目录 | r 行情回顾 . | | --- | | 1. 大豆 | | 2. 豆粕 | | 3. 豆油 5 | | 二、产区天气 | | 1. 巴西大豆产区天气 7 | | 2. 阿根廷大豆产区天气 | | 国际供需 . in | | 1. 美国大豆 | | 2. 巴西大豆 | | 3. 阿根廷大豆 19 | | 国内供需 四、 | | 1. 豆油供需 | | 2. 豆粕供需 26 | | 国内外油脂期现价格、价差情况 五、 | | 1. 基差、月差、品种差情况 30 | | 2. FOB 报价 | | 3. CFTC 持仓情况 | 2 公众号 · 国富研究 油脂油料周度行情 一、 行情回顾 1. 大豆 图片来源:文华财经 外盘方面,截至11月14日收盘,CBOT 大豆 01 合约收于 1122.50 美 分/蒲式耳,较前一周上涨0.47%。本周CBOT 大豆价格上涨,主要因市场 预期中美贸易关系或改善以及市场担忧巴西南部不利天气或影响部分 ...

近日，GTCFX首席分析师Jameel Ahmad受邀出席土耳其国际新闻频道TRT WORLD节目，围绕"中美贸易休战对全球市场的影响"及"OPEC+产油政策动向"发 表了独到见解，为投资者提供了深度的市场分析与风险提示。 GTCFX首席分析师Jameel做客TRT WORLD 解读中美贸易休战与油市走势 贸易休战提振市场情绪但风险仍存 在谈及中美贸易休战时，Jameel Ahmad表示，当前市场的积极氛围虽受到休战消息的带动，但本质上这更像是一种"阶段性停火"而非真正的协议。他指出， 这一休战为中美关系带来暂时缓和，推动了市场情绪的回升。然而，美联储的政策不确定性与美国经济数据延迟公布，仍可能成为潜在风险因素。 他进一步分析称，近期美国财报季表现强劲，加之美联储此前降息，共同支撑了十月市场的整体上涨。但随着进入十一月，美联储已暗示短期内是否继续降 息尚无定论，加上政府停摆风险迫近，投资者应保持谨慎。与此同时，中国经济增长放缓的迹象同样值得关注，这可能促使部分投资者选择在本月进行获利 了结操作。 通过此次访谈，GTCFX展现了其在国际财经分析领域的专业实力，持续为全球投资者提供具有前瞻性与洞察力的市场观点。 ...

正当全球产业链刚刚因中美贸易释放出"休战"信号而稍稍放松神经，美国总统特朗普政府便迫不及待地更新了一份"关键矿产名单"，这种"前脚合作，后脚 施压"的操作，不禁让人再次对未来的经贸关系感到担忧。而就在此前不久，中国商务部刚刚回应了稀土出口问题，表示将对符合规定的申请予以许可，以 确保全球供应链的安全与稳定。 先来看看这份引发关注的"关键矿产名单"究竟包括哪些内容。据英国《金融时报》报道，美国地质调查局于11月6日公布了这份名单，在原有基础上新增了 铜、银、冶金煤、铀、硼等十种元素。美国内政部长伯格姆直言不讳地表示，此举旨在"减少对外国对手的依赖，扩大国内生产"。而美方口中的"外国对 手"，指向不言而喻。 以新增的冶金煤为例，它是钢铁生产的核心原料。尽管美国本土储量丰富，但开采成本远高于中国。一旦加征关税，美国钢铁企业可能被迫转向本土采购， 即便这会大幅推高生产成本。这种"用成本换筹码"的逻辑，与之前特朗普政府禁止对华出口高端人工智能芯片的做法如出一辙。 更值得警惕的是，根据美国《贸易扩展法》第232条，被列入"关键矿产"的物项，将会被纳入"国家安全调查"范围。一旦认定存在"供应风险"，特朗普政府 便有权直接加 ...

Core Points - Mexico's government has postponed the implementation of high tariffs on Chinese goods originally scheduled for November, now set for December due to rising opposition from the business community and within the ruling party [1][5][18] Group 1: Economic Impact - A significant portion of Mexico's manufacturing relies on Chinese imports, with 60% of raw materials for some automotive parts coming from China, leading to concerns that tariffs could increase production costs by 30% [3][16] - In 2024, Mexico's imports of machinery and electronic components from China reached a record $28 billion, accounting for 35% of the country's total imports in these categories [3] - The average tariff rate on Chinese goods in Mexico is currently 8.5%, but proposed new tariffs could raise rates to as high as 50%, potentially reducing imports from China by approximately 30%, equating to an annual loss of $12 billion [16][18] Group 2: Political Dynamics - Internal divisions within the ruling party regarding the tariff proposal have been highlighted, with some members arguing against sacrificing domestic business interests to appease the U.S. [5][18] - The Mexican government has received 17 formal objections from various trade associations detailing the negative impacts of the proposed tariffs, including price increases and job losses [5][16] Group 3: Trade Relations - The easing of U.S.-China trade tensions has provided Mexico with more flexibility in its trade policies, with the Mexican peso appreciating by 1.7% against the dollar in May following these developments [9][10] - Mexico's imports from the U.S. increased by 8.2% in the first half of 2025, while imports from China decreased by 2.1%, indicating a shift in trade dynamics [10] - The U.S. has pressured Mexico to impose tariffs on 54 categories of Chinese goods, with potential losses estimated at $1.8 billion annually for Mexico if these demands are met [12][16] Group 4: Industry Concerns - The automotive industry in Mexico, which relies heavily on Chinese parts, could face significant supply chain disruptions if tariffs are implemented, with over $8 billion worth of parts imported annually from China [18] - The logistics, retail, and manufacturing sectors, which employ over 2 million people in Mexico, are at risk of losing 100,000 to 150,000 jobs due to the proposed tariffs [16]

美东时间11月9日，美国贸易代表办公室的一则公告，像一颗投入平静湖面的石子，激起了全球贸易格局的涟漪——宣布自11月10日 起，暂停对华造船、船岸起重机等行业的301调查措施，为期一年。中方迅速回应，同步暂停相关反制举措。这一来一往，不仅是中 美在吉隆坡经贸磋商共识的落地，更可能成为两国关系缓和的转折点。这场"贸易休战"背后，究竟隐藏着怎样的博弈与深意？ 事件回顾：一场"暂停"背后的外交智慧 尽管美国此前试图通过301条款限制中国造船、起重机等行业的发展，但中国在这些领域的全球市场份额与技术实力仍持续巩固。以 造船业为例，中国已连续多年蝉联全球新接订单量第一。美方的暂停，某种程度上是对中国制造业难以替代的默认。 据美国贸易代表办公室公告，自11月10日0时01分起，美方将暂停对华造船、起重机等产品加征关税及征收港口费。中方在同日作出 对等回应，暂停实施相关反制措施。这一动作被商务部评价为"相向而行的重要一步"，凸显了双方在经贸领域的务实态度。 值得注意的是，此次暂停并非永久取消，而是为期一年的"试探性休战"。其范围涵盖造船、港口设备等关键领域，这些正是此前美国 对华贸易战中的焦点行业。从"剑拔弩张"到"各退一 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The trading focus of the soybean meal futures is on the export demand of US soybeans under the background of China-US negotiations, with an expected export of 12 million tons to China being gradually priced in. Attention should be paid to whether the ending stocks in the USDA report this week will remain around 300 million bushels, and the subsequent price oscillation range is expected to move up slightly. The domestic soybean meal market is gradually pricing in the de-stocking logic after the implementation of tariffs, with a positive spread logic of near-term strength and far-term weakness. - The rapeseed meal futures will maintain a state of weak supply and demand in the fourth quarter. After China's decision to resume group tours to Canada, there is an additional expectation of negotiations, and considering the arrival of Australian rapeseed after November, the subsequent demand growth is expected to be limited, and the supply is expected to recover. The inventory of rapeseed meal at coastal areas and oil mills remains high, limiting the upside potential for price rebounds. Attention can be paid to the registration of new warehouse receipts after the centralized cancellation of warehouse receipts in November [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 3.1.1 Core Contradictions - **Soybean Meal**: The trading focus is on the export demand of US soybeans and the de-stocking logic after tariff implementation. The external market is pricing in the expected export of 12 million tons of US soybeans to China, and attention is on the USDA report's ending stocks. The domestic market is pricing in the de-stocking logic, with a positive spread logic of near-term strength and far-term weakness [2]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: It will maintain a state of weak supply and demand in the fourth quarter. The potential for demand growth is limited, and supply is expected to recover. Attention can be paid to the registration of new warehouse receipts after the centralized cancellation of warehouse receipts in November [2]. 3.1.2 Trading Strategy Recommendations - **Trend Judgment**: The market is expected to oscillate within a range. The oscillation range for M2601 is 2800 - 3200, and it is difficult to break through the upper and lower bounds. - **Strategy Suggestions**: Unilateral long positions can be reduced or liquidated; a covered call strategy can be considered in combination with options, selling a 3300 call option as a covered call for M2601, and holding existing covered call positions; sell a 2600 call option for rapeseed meal 2601 [16]. 3.1.3 Basis, Spread, and Hedging Arbitrage Strategy Recommendations - **Basis Strategy**: The current basis can be considered in combination with the oscillation range, using accumulating options to reduce basis risk. The near-term basis is expected to strengthen. - **Spread Strategy**: Positions in M3 - 5 and M1 - 3 spreads can be reduced. - **Hedging Arbitrage Strategy**: Short the spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal 2601 when the spread is high (650 - 700) [17]. 3.1.4 Industry Customer Operation Suggestions - **Price Range Forecast**: The price range for soybean meal is 2800 - 3300, with a current volatility of 9.8% and a historical percentile of 6.8% over three years. The price range for rapeseed meal is 2250 - 2750, with a current volatility of 17.6% and a historical percentile of 32.4% over three years. - **Hedging Strategy**: Traders with high protein inventory can short soybean meal futures to lock in profits and cover production costs. Feed mills with low inventory can buy soybean meal futures to lock in procurement costs [19]. 3.2 This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Events to Watch 3.2.1 This Week's Important Information - **Positive Information**: Chicago soybean futures need a catalyst to rise further. US agricultural exporters are optimistic about the resumption of normal trade between China and the US. As of November 6, 61% of the 2025/26 Brazilian soybean crop had been sown, up from 47% a week ago but below last year's 67%. The USDA will release its November supply and demand report on November 14 [24]. - **Negative Information**: Argentina's soybean sowing has started, but as of November 5, only 4.4% of the expected area had been sown, nearly 4 percentage points behind last year. Brazil's soybean exports in October were significantly higher than last year. Argentina's agricultural areas have experienced above - average rainfall, which may offset the risk of reduced rainfall caused by La Nina [25]. 3.2.2 Next Week's Important Events to Watch - Monday: USDA export inspection report and domestic weekly inventory data. - Tuesday: Brazil Secex weekly report. - Thursday: USDA export sales report and Conab Brazil grain production survey. - Saturday: CFTC agricultural positions report and USDA monthly supply and demand report. Special attention should be paid to the USDA supply and demand report released at 1 am Beijing time on November 15 [29]. 3.3 Disk Interpretation 3.3.1 Price - Volume and Capital Interpretation - **Domestic Market**: The soybean meal futures followed the increase in external market costs this week, with long - positions adding and the price rebounding. The rapeseed meal futures adjusted this week after a significant rebound following previous China - Canada negotiations. - **Capital Flows**: In the soybean meal and rapeseed meal markets, foreign institutional short - positions were closed and long - positions were added, while institutional investors reduced long - positions and added short - positions, indicating limited upside potential for the rebound. The soybean meal option PCR indicator shows that the market's bullish sentiment has returned. - **Spread Structure**: The soybean and rapeseed meal futures spreads generally show a B - structure in the first half of the year and a C - structure in the second half, mainly related to seasonal supply patterns. This week, the M1 - 5 spread first rose and then fell, related to the rebound of M01, and the RM1 - 5 spread weakened due to the decline of RM01. - **Basis Structure**: The soybean meal basis declined this week due to the increase in the futures price, with the spot price rising less than the futures. The rapeseed meal basis also declined for the same reason. The spot spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal narrowed, mainly due to the larger decline in rapeseed meal prices [30][31][34][40]. 3.3.2 External Market - **External Market Trends**: The external and domestic markets rebounded after a correction. After the expectation of China - US negotiations and news of soybean purchases, US soybean prices rebounded significantly, and the domestic market followed the cost increase. - **Capital Positions**: The net managed positions in CBOT soybeans have returned above the zero line, indicating a short - term return of long - position funds [45][50]. 3.4 Valuation and Profit Analysis 3.4.1 Production Area Profit Tracking - In the soybean production areas, the crushing profit in the US has weakened due to the decline in soybean product prices, while the monthly crushing volume has remained at a high level for the year. The crushing profits in South American production areas (Brazil and Argentina) have also weakened. The domestic crushing profit of Canadian rapeseed has rebounded due to the decline in rapeseed prices [52]. 3.4.2 Import and Export Crushing Profit Tracking - China mainly imports raw materials for domestic crushing, with a relatively small volume of direct imports of meal. The crushing profit of Brazilian soybeans has declined recently due to the increase in import costs after the rebound of the US market, but it is still better than the profit under the current 13% tariff on US soybeans. China will continue to mainly import Brazilian soybeans. The available export volume of Brazilian soybeans is limited, and domestic soybean crushing is expected to decline seasonally. Although rapeseed imports offer crushing profits, due to import margin factors, subsequent ship bookings are expected to remain cautious [57]. 3.5 Supply - Demand and Inventory Projections 3.5.1 International Supply - Demand Balance Sheet Projections - For the September new - crop balance sheet, in terms of production, after a significant downward revision of the planted area in August, the area is expected to marginally increase, and after the yield was adjusted to the highest level in history, it is expected to marginally decline in subsequent months. The total production is expected to be between 4.2 - 4.3 billion bushels. In terms of demand, the crushing volume will continue to grow due to domestic biodiesel policies, while exports will remain weak due to China - US trade relations. If China - US trade resumes, exports are expected to recover to above - normal levels. The ending stocks are expected to remain moderately tight. The October balance sheet was not released due to the US government shutdown. Attention should be paid to the balance sheet released by the government in November [61]. 3.5.2 Domestic Supply and Projections - Considering the opening of US soybean imports, domestic soybean imports are expected to decline in the fourth quarter due to the lack of effective import profit, but will start to recover in the first quarter of next year. Rapeseed imports will continue to remain at a low level [63]. 3.5.3 Domestic Demand and Projections - Domestic soybean inventory carried over from the third quarter, combined with fourth - quarter arrivals, is expected to keep the crushing volume at a high level. After high - level pre - stocking of domestic soybean meal, subsequent consumption is unlikely to increase significantly [66]. 3.5.4 Domestic Inventory and Projections - Domestic soybean inventory is at a seasonal high but will decline in the fourth quarter as soybean imports decrease, and is expected to stabilize and recover in the first quarter of next year. The raw material inventory of domestic soybean meal will also decrease, and the crushing volume will decline. The soybean meal inventory is expected to remain at around 600,000 tons in the first quarter of next year [68].