万斯在讲话中提到的54%关税，这个数字听上去震撼，但如果深入分析就会发现，它并不是一个简单的税率，而是由多重因素组成：包括20%针对芬太尼的 关税、10%的基准关税以及24%待定的关税。这一切都让人看出，实际上，严厉的制裁已经给美国自身的经济带来了极大压力。而特朗普时期的种种措施， 尤其是对农业州的影响，让那些本希望借此制裁中国以达致自身目的的人开始感到不安。 随着中国与俄罗斯之间的贸易合作不断深化，美国所采取的制裁政策愈发显得无效。俄罗斯向中国输出能源，而中国则将汽车、手机等产品回馈给俄罗斯。 这种相互依赖形成的双边贸易关系，不仅在数量上迅速增长，更在政治上表现出了足够的韧性，使得美国的"关税大棒"显得苍白无力。 近日，美国副总统万斯表态，中国与俄罗斯的贸易往来不会导致美国加征新的关税，这一言论不仅是务实派在美国内部斗争中的胜利，亦反映出美国在国际 事务中的无奈与尴尬。 实际上，美国的不敢轻举妄动，正是因为它意识到了加税对自国经济的损害。高关税不仅抬高了进口商品的价格，最终掏空的是普通美国消费者的口袋。与 此同时，依赖中国原材料和零部件的制造业更是陷入成本飙升的困境，全球竞争力大幅下降。这些现实的问题摆在眼 ...

特朗普称美国在贸易方面对中国的影响力大于中国对美国的影响力，外交部回应 在8月26日外交部例行记者会上，有外媒记者提问，美国总统特朗普称，美国在贸易方面对中 国的影响力大于中国对美国的影响力。他称，飞机零部件是关键产品，华盛顿必须应对北京 对稀土的限制。中方对此有何评论？ 来源：北京青年报 8月26日，外交部发言人郭嘉昆主持例行记者会。 有记者提问，美国总统特朗普周一表示，中国必须确保美国的稀土磁体供应，否则将面临 200%的关税。中方对此有何评论？ 郭嘉昆表示，我们已就关税问题多次阐明了中方的立场。 "我刚才已经回答了有关的问题。"郭嘉昆重申，中方一贯按照相互尊重、和平共处、合作共 赢的原则来处理和推进中美关系，同时坚定维护自身的主权安全和发展利益，我们希望美方 相向而行，共同推动中美关系稳定、健康、可持续发展。 普 表 示 希 望 尽 特 朗 快 访 华，外 交 部 回 应 ...

"我刚才已经回答了有关的问题。"郭嘉昆重申，中方一贯按照相互尊重、和平共处、合作共赢的原则来 处理和推进中美关系，同时坚定维护自身的主权安全和发展利益，我们希望美方相向而行，共同推动中 美关系稳定、健康、可持续发展。 【环球时报-环球网报道 记者李萌】在8月26日外交部例行记者会上，有外媒记者提问，美国总统特朗 普称，美国在贸易方面对中国的影响力大于中国对美国的影响力。他称，飞机零部件是关键产品，华盛 顿必须应对北京对稀土的限制。中方对此有何评论？ ...

| [T走ab势le_评R级ank：] | 棕榈油：看涨 | 豆油：看涨 | | | 菜油：看涨 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 报告日期： | | 年 月 | 2025 8 | 25 日 | | [Table_Summary] ★调研背景 农 近期油脂市场政策扰动频繁。豆油方面，目前中美贸易谈判仍 未取得实质性进展，中国仍未有购买美豆的行动，叠加豆油出 口的增加，豆油基本面预期发生了较为明显的变化。菜油方 面，加拿大菜籽反倾销初步裁定出炉，我国采取了加征保证金 的临时措施，使得加拿大菜籽进口贸易暂时被阻断，国内菜系 供应受到非常明显的影响。棕榈油方面，国内需求低迷，采购 也并不积极，且产地供应难以恢复，叠加生物柴油政策扰动， 价格走势偏强。我们走访了两广地区的贸易商，调研国内对于 四季度大豆与菜籽供应情况的看法。 产 品 ★调研观点 菜油：现货端菜油供应并不缺乏，销区库存充足，部分地区接 近胀库状态。国内菜油消费极差，仅以刚需为主，虽然目前油 厂菜籽压榨线基本停机，但充足的菜油库存叠加进口毛菜油的 增加，国内四季度菜油供应并不一定会短缺。 豆油：现货端豆油 ...

美国总 统特朗普（资料图，Reuters） 特朗普在会见韩国总统李在明回答记者提问时提及此事的。特朗普在牵制中国的同时表 示，两国关系"正在大幅改善"…… 美国政府目前将维持能从中国稳定进口稀土磁铁的环境，同时正在加紧强化国内的生产体制。 美国国防部8月宣布，向美国稀土开采企业MP材料公司（MP Materials）注资1亿5000万美元。计划完善 稀土磁铁的国内生产基地等，今后将由国防部出资，成为该公司的最大股东。政府和民间将投入更多资 金。 美国总统特朗普8月25日就中国出口的稀土磁铁表示，如果再次停止出口，"将采取200%的关税等应对 措施"。 特朗普在会见韩国总统李在明回答记者提问时提及此事的。特朗普在牵制中国的同时表示，两国关 系"正在大幅改善"，强调了积极的姿态。 中美两国7月底在瑞典首都斯德哥尔摩举行的部长级磋商中，就中国恢复稀土磁铁出口达成一致。今年 春季以来，在双方征收累计超过100%的关税时，中方曾暂停出口。 目前，中国正在增加供应。中国7月份向美国出口的稀土磁铁同比增长5%，达到619吨。比上月增加7 成，创出半年来的最高水平。 参加中美磋商的美国贸易代表办公室（USTR）的代表格里尔显 ...

特朗普政策反复，中方280亿静悄悄撤，美国金融命门被慢刀割开？ 最近有种分析是这样的，特朗普反倒成为了其领导班子中最不鹰派的人，那么这样分析合理吗？又有什么样的依据？ 其实，之所以有这样的分析，是因为特朗普如今一段时间对华的态度和之前大相径庭。 那么，为什么一下子美国就同意英伟达向中国出口他们的H20AI芯片，是想要换取中国在稀土领域的更大便利？还是想在8月12日之前尽早与中国开始第 三次的谈判？ 其实，这两个原因都是，美国既希望中国能扩大对他们的稀土出口，也希望能够与中国尽快进行第三的谈判。 所以，美国财长贝森特才会在7月15日的时候表示，"原定于下个月的中美关税战的休战截止日期具有灵活性"。 自从，中美两国就稀土、关税问题达成协议之后，特朗普政府对华的态度确实软化了许多。 对二十多个国家加征关税的名单里没有中国，而且他们还对中国解除了好几种禁令，最早是取消了对C919发动机的断供，也解除了对乙烷出口限制的禁 令，而最近便是允许英伟达向中国出口H20的芯片。 要知道，在6月份的时候，美国就将限制英伟达高端芯片出口到中国，视为他们对中国态度强硬的证据。 然而，该法案签署以后，特朗普又恢复了以往对中国的抹黑和指 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings | Variety | Rating | | --- | --- | | Oils and Fats | Oscillating Bullish | | Protein Meal | Oscillating | | Corn and Starch | Oscillating Bearish | | Hogs | Oscillating | | Natural Rubber | Oscillating Bullish | | Synthetic Rubber | Oscillating Bullish | | Cotton | Oscillating Bullish | | Sugar | Oscillating Bearish in the long - term, Oscillating in the short - term | | Pulp | Oscillating | | Logs | Oscillating Bearish | [171] 2. Core Views The report provides a comprehensive analysis of various agricultural products including oils and fats, protein meal, corn, hogs, rubber, cotton, sugar, pulp, and logs. It assesses the current market conditions, influencing factors, and offers mid - term outlooks and trading strategies for each product. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Views 3.1.1 Oils and Fats - **View**: Short - term focus on the effectiveness of the lower technical support. - **Logic**: Technical selling pressure led to drops in US soybeans and soybean oil on Tuesday. The market is waiting for the Fed Chair's speech, with the US dollar oscillating stronger and crude oil prices falling. US soybean growth is good, and the USDA August report anticipates a record - high yield. There are uncertainties in US soybean exports, and the demand for US soybean oil from biodiesel has decreased this year. Domestic soybean imports are expected to decline seasonally, and the inventory of domestic soybean oil may peak. Palm oil is in the production season, and there is a high probability of inventory accumulation. - **Outlook**: Oscillating bullish [5]. 3.1.2 Protein Meal - **View**: The price is oscillating narrowly at a high level, waiting for the results of the field inspection. - **Logic**: Internationally, US soybean is expected to oscillate around 1050 cents. Domestically, there is a consensus on near - month inventory pressure and far - month supply shortage. Some oil mills will reduce their operating rates, and the import profit is rising. - **Outlook**: The basis may bottom out and rebound. It is recommended that oil mills sell on rallies, and downstream enterprises buy basis contracts or price at low levels. Hold long positions at 2900 - 2910 and add positions on dips [6]. 3.1.3 Corn and Starch - **View**: The sentiment is bearish, and spot and near - month prices are falling rapidly. - **Logic**: Domestic corn prices are generally falling. The supply of old - crop corn is tight, but the purchasing enthusiasm is weak. The new - crop corn production is normal, and foreign supply is abundant. - **Outlook**: Oscillating bearish in the short - term, with supply pressure easing after the new - crop harvest [7][8]. 3.1.4 Hogs - **View**: Stricter transportation policies have weakened the futures price. - **Logic**: In the short - term, the planned slaughter volume in August has increased. In the medium - term, the supply of commercial pigs is expected to increase. In the long - term, anti - involution policies may lead to capacity reduction. - **Outlook**: Oscillating. There is inventory pressure in the short - term, and the far - month prices may be affected by capacity reduction expectations [9]. 3.1.5 Natural Rubber - **View**: The weakening of commodity sentiment dragged down the rubber price. - **Logic**: Although the rubber price dropped due to weakening sentiment, it gradually recovered in the afternoon. The rubber is entering the seasonal rising period, and there are many speculative themes. The short - term supply may decrease, and the demand is rigid. - **Outlook**: Oscillating bullish in the short - term [11][12]. 3.1.6 Synthetic Rubber - **View**: Positive news supported the price rebound after the decline. - **Logic**: The BR price initially followed the market down but rebounded after the news of petrochemical industry reform. The price is mainly affected by natural rubber and the short - term tight supply of butadiene. - **Outlook**: The butadiene price may rise slightly, and the market may oscillate bullishly [13][14]. 3.1.7 Cotton - **View**: Supported by fundamentals, the cotton price corrected during the session but was relatively resistant to decline. - **Logic**: Affected by the overall commodity atmosphere, the cotton price corrected at night but rebounded during the day. The commercial inventory is low, and the demand is improving, but there are also factors restricting the price increase. - **Outlook**: Oscillating between 13500 - 14300 yuan/ton [15]. 3.1.8 Sugar - **View**: The increasing supply has put pressure on the sugar price. - **Logic**: In the international market, Brazil's sugar production is increasing. In the domestic market, the import volume in July reached a high level. The supply is increasing, but the downward space is limited in the short - term. - **Outlook**: Oscillating bearish in the long - term, oscillating between 5600 - 5900 yuan/ton in the short - term [17]. 3.1.9 Pulp - **View**: The price change is small, moving within a range. - **Logic**: The pulp price continued to correct, and the spot price of softwood pulp declined. The supply and demand of wood pulp have both positive and negative factors. - **Outlook**: Oscillating. The price of hardwood pulp may drive the futures price, and the main contract is expected to move between 5100 - 5500 [18]. 3.1.10 Logs - **View**: Try to go long on far - month contracts at low prices. - **Logic**: The fundamentals of logs are marginally improving, with reduced arrival pressure and inventory depletion. However, there are also negative factors such as weak demand and delivery pressure. - **Outlook**: Oscillating between 790 - 840 [19][20]. 3.2 Variety Data Monitoring The report lists the data monitoring of various varieties including oils and fats, protein meal, corn, hogs, cotton, sugar, pulp, and logs, but no specific data analysis is provided in the given text [22][41][54]. 3.3 Rating Standards The report defines rating standards such as bullish, oscillating bullish, oscillating, oscillating bearish, and bearish, with a time - cycle of 2 - 12 weeks and a standard deviation calculation method [171]. 3.4 Commodity Index On August 20, 2025, the comprehensive index, commodity 20 index, and industrial product index all declined. The agricultural product index also declined, with a year - to - date increase of 2.94% [172][173][175].

Core Viewpoint - The article focuses on the adjustments made in the August USDA report regarding the new crop soybean balance sheet, emphasizing the flexibility of yield adjustments compared to planting area estimates, and the potential impact of weather conditions on soybean production [4][14]. Group 1: Yield Adjustments - The USDA report indicates that soybean yields in most major producing states have been revised upwards, with some states reaching historical highs due to favorable weather conditions in July [5]. - Historical data shows that there has been no significant bias in the August yield estimates compared to final yields over the past 20 years, suggesting that yield adjustments can be substantial [7]. - Weather forecasts indicate ongoing risks, with dry conditions in early August potentially affecting soybean yields during critical growth stages [10]. Group 2: Planting Area Estimates - The article discusses the differences in planting area estimates between NASS and FSA, with NASS estimating 8.09 million acres and FSA estimating 7.976 million acres for soybean planting in 2025, a difference of approximately 1 million acres [15]. - NASS uses a comprehensive data collection method, while FSA relies on producer reports, leading to differences in data coverage and classification [16][17]. - The article suggests that the FSA's preliminary planting area can be used to estimate NASS's final planting area, with projections indicating a potential reduction of about 1.5 million acres from the June report [27]. Group 3: Market Outlook - The soybean market outlook indicates that if the U.S. and China reach an agreement on tariff reductions, soybean exports could increase, potentially tightening the soybean balance sheet further [14]. - Conversely, if significant yield losses occur, the USDA may reduce export and crushing estimates to stabilize ending stocks [14]. - The pricing dynamics for soybean meal are influenced by U.S.-China trade relations, with potential upward price pressure if trade agreements are reached, despite possible short-term supply pressures [28].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content was provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The USDA供需 report was unexpectedly bullish, causing US soybeans to return above 1000 cents. Under the influence of anti - dumping measures on domestic rapeseed, the performance of double - meal (soybean meal and rapeseed meal) was differentiated, with rapeseed meal showing more volatility and soybean meal remaining relatively stable due to import cost support [35]. - Currently, the domestic soybean supply is abundant, and oil mills have high soybean meal inventories. Downstream feed enterprises maintain high - inventory rolling, resulting in weak short - term follow - up buying willingness and sluggish soybean meal transactions at oil mills [35]. - In the short term, influenced by the cooling sentiment in the rapeseed sector and news of customs inspections in some areas, short - term trading is recommended for soybean meal; rapeseed meal is more volatile, and short - term trading should be accompanied by risk prevention [36]. - In the long term, the global soybean supply is ample, limiting the sustained upward momentum of the soybean sector [37]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - **Futures Prices**: As of August 14, the closing price of the main soybean meal futures contract (M2601) was 3157 yuan/ton, up 2.77% from August 6; the main rapeseed meal futures contract (RM509) was 2686 yuan/ton, down 2.15%; the main corn futures contract (C2511) was 2281 yuan/ton, up 0.97%; the main live hog futures contract (LH2511) was 13900 yuan/ton, down 0.79%; the main egg futures contract (JD2510) was 3189 yuan/ton, down 5.60% [4]. - **Spot Prices**: On August 14, the spot price of 43% protein soybean meal in Shandong was 3000 yuan/ton, up 3.81% from August 6; the average price of rapeseed meal in China was 2600 yuan/ton, down 2.26%; the aggregated price of second - grade corn with 14.5% moisture in Bayuquan Port was 2310 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average daily slaughter price of commercial hogs in Henan was 13.76 yuan/kg, down 1.43%; the average price of eggs in the main producing areas in China was 3.07 yuan/jin, up 5.50% [4]. 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - **Cost - end**: In the next 6 - 10 days, most areas in the main US soybean - producing states will have higher - than - normal temperatures, and half of the areas will have precipitation close to the median. The USDA's August report showed that although the 2025/26 US soybean yield per acre increased from 52.5 bushels to 53.6 bushels, the sown area decreased from 83.4 million acres to 80.9 million acres, and the production decreased from 4.335 billion bushels to 4.292 billion bushels, reaching the sixth - highest in history. The USDA lowered the 2025/26 US soybean ending inventory to 290 million bushels, lower than the market expectation of 351 million bushels and the July forecast of 310 million bushels, hitting a three - year low. In July, Brazil's soybean exports reached 12.25 million tons, a record high for the same period. From January to July, Brazil's cumulative exports of oil crops reached 77.2 million tons, the first time to exceed this level in the same period of previous years. As of August 6, Argentine farmers had pre - sold 28.83 million tons of 2024/25 soybeans, 870,000 tons more than a week ago [7]. - **Supply - Import**: Affected by Brazil's strong exports and concerns about supply due to Sino - US trade uncertainties, China's soybean imports in July reached a record high for the same period for the third consecutive month. In July, China imported 11.67 million tons of soybeans, a 4.8% decrease from June but still the highest for the same period in history, an 18.5% increase from the same period in 2024. The total soybean imports in the first seven months of this year reached 61.04 million tons, a 4.6% year - on - year increase. The market expects soybean imports in August and September to remain above 10 million tons, with most coming from Brazil. However, China has not booked any US soybean cargoes for the fourth quarter, raising concerns about a potential supply shortage [7]. - **Demand - Pressing and Transaction**: As of the week ending August 8, the actual soybean crushing volume of oil mills was 2.1775 million tons, with an operating rate of 61.21%. On August 14, the total soybean meal transaction volume was 73,700 tons, 2900 tons less than the previous day, and the spot transaction volume was 28,700 tons. The weekly average showed that the total soybean meal transaction volume was 511,980 tons, and the spot transaction volume was 70,920 tons. Currently, the domestic soybean supply is abundant, oil mills have high soybean meal inventories, and downstream feed enterprises maintain high - inventory rolling, resulting in weak short - term follow - up buying willingness and sluggish soybean meal transactions at oil mills [7]. - **Inventory**: As of the week ending August 8, the soybean inventory was 7.1056 million tons, an 8.38% increase from the previous week and a 0.59% decrease from the same period in 2024; the soybean meal inventory was 1.0035 million tons, a 3.66% decrease from the previous week and a 31.74% decrease from the same period in 2024 [7]. 3.3 Supply - end - **Import**: As of August 14, the CNF price of Brazilian soybeans was 497.00 US dollars/ton, up 12 US dollars/ton from the previous week; the CNF price of US West Coast soybeans was 454.00 US dollars/ton, up 17 US dollars/ton from the previous week [11][12]. - **Pressing**: As of the week ending August 14, the soybean crushing profit was 209.40 yuan/ton, up 56.50 yuan/ton from the previous week. As of the week ending August 8, the domestic oil mill's weekly soybean crushing volume was 2.359 million tons, up 129,500 tons from the previous week. As of August 8, the domestic soybean oil mill operating rate was 60%, an increase of 3 percentage points from the previous week [15]. 3.4 Inventory - end - As of August 14, the imported soybean port inventory was 6.7355 million tons, a decrease of 108,000 tons from the previous week. Seasonally, the soybean port inventory is at a near - five - year low. As of August 1, the oil mill's soybean meal inventory was 960,900 tons, a decrease of 16,700 tons from the previous week. Seasonally, the domestic mainstream oil mill's soybean meal inventory is at a near - five - year medium level [18]. 3.5 Demand - end - As of August 8, the average daily trading volume of soybean meal at domestic mainstream oil mills was 500,700 tons, an increase of 222,400 tons from the previous week. Seasonally, it is at a near - five - year high level [22]. 3.6 Pig - end No specific content was provided for analysis in the given text. 3.7 Strategy Recommendation - Short - term: Due to the cooling sentiment in the rapeseed sector and news of customs inspections in some areas, short - term trading is recommended for soybean meal; rapeseed meal is more volatile, and short - term trading should be accompanied by risk prevention [36]. - Long - term: The global soybean supply is ample, limiting the sustained upward momentum of the soybean sector [37]. 3.8 Next Week's Focus and Risk Warning The focus includes the weather in production areas, trade relations, and the arrival rhythm of imported soybeans [38].

Core Insights - Bridgewater Associates has divested from U.S.-listed Chinese stocks in Q2 2023, indicating a significant pullback from the market due to geopolitical tensions and declining investor confidence in China's economic outlook [1][2] - The hedge fund has closed out positions in major Chinese companies such as Baidu, Alibaba, JD.com, PDD Holdings, Nio, Trip.com Group, and Yum China, while also reducing its stake in Apple but increasing holdings in Microsoft and Nvidia [2] - Ray Dalio, the founder of Bridgewater, had previously defended investments in China but has expressed concerns about U.S.-China relations and economic challenges facing China [3] Company Actions - Bridgewater Associates has sold its stakes in several prominent Chinese companies, reflecting a strategic shift in investment focus [2] - The fund's adjustments include a reduction in Apple holdings and an increase in investments in Microsoft and Nvidia, suggesting a reallocation towards more stable or promising sectors [2] Geopolitical Context - The extension of the tariff truce between the U.S. and China for an additional 90 days has implications for trade relations, with current tariffs on Chinese imports at 30% and U.S. exports to China at 10% [4] - The potential increase in tariffs, which could have reached 145% on Chinese goods, highlights the ongoing trade tensions and their impact on investment strategies [4]