1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In March 2026, the manufacturing PMI rebounded beyond expectations, indicating an economic recovery, but the recovery strength is average and the expectations are cautious. Without considering external uncertainties, the prices of domestically - priced commodities are expected to rise. The manufacturing PMI in April 2026 is likely to decline, which is a crucial observation window [4][5][6]. - In March 2026, the non - manufacturing PMI rose, but multiple sub - items are at historically low levels, and the non - manufacturing industry is still in the bottom - building process. The construction industry is still in a downward trend, but the sales price sub - item has bottomed out [29][32]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Part 1: Review of China's Manufacturing and Non - manufacturing PMI Data Tables - Manufacturing PMI: In March 2026, all sub - items of the manufacturing PMI increased compared to February. The significant increases include the purchase price of main raw materials (up 9 to 63.9), ex - factory price (up 4.8 to 55.4), import (up 4.2 to 49.8), new export orders (up 4.1 to 49.1), and new orders (up 3 to 51.6) [3][4]. - Non - manufacturing PMI: In March 2026, the business activity of non - manufacturing PMI was 50.1, up 0.6 from the previous month. The sub - items with relatively large increases were new export orders, input prices, sales prices, and delivery time. The sub - items with relatively large decreases were domestic demand, inventory, business activity expectations, and employees [3][29]. Part 2: March Manufacturing PMI Reflects Economic Service Beyond Expectations - Manufacturing PMI reached 50.4 in March 2026, up 1.4 from the previous month, higher than the market expectation of 50.1, and above the 50 boom - bust line again after two months. All sub - items increased, indicating an economic recovery. However, some key sub - items are still below 50, and some sub - items are at the second - lowest or lowest levels in the same period since 2018. The economic recovery is influenced by factors such as the arrival of the demand peak season, economic improvement, and price increases due to the Middle East conflict. The recovery strength is average, and expectations are cautious. The prices of domestically - priced commodities are expected to rise. In April 2026, the manufacturing PMI is likely to decline, which is a crucial observation window [4][5][6]. Part 3: Multiple Sub - items of March Non - manufacturing PMI are at Historically Low Levels - In March 2026, the non - manufacturing PMI business activity was 50.1, up 0.6 from the previous month and higher than the expected 49.9, returning above 50 again after two months. The sub - items of non - manufacturing PMI showed mixed trends. The new orders and domestic demand sub - items decreased against the season, indicating that the non - manufacturing industry is still in the bottom - building process. Some sub - items are at the lowest or second - lowest levels in the same period over the years. The construction industry PMI shows a downward trend, but the sales price sub - item has bottomed out, suggesting that the housing price may be stabilizing, but the sustainability needs to be observed [29][32].

Core Insights - The ongoing U.S.-Iran tensions have led to significant volatility in global stock markets, with coordinated strikes by the U.S. and Israel on Iran aimed at disrupting its nuclear program and regime [1][2] - The conflict has raised concerns over oil production and shipping routes, particularly the Strait of Hormuz, which is crucial for global oil and liquefied natural gas supplies [2][3] Market Impact - Global stock markets experienced extreme volatility, with the iShares MSCI ACWI ETF (ACWI) declining by 2.4%, the State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) down 1%, and the State Street SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF Trust (DIA) falling by 1.9% over the past week [4] - The Nasdaq-100-based fund Invesco QQQ Trust, Series 1 (QQQ) saw a slight increase of 0.2% during the same period [4] Commodity ETFs Performance - Teucrium Wheat ETF (WEAT) surged by 14.3% due to geopolitical tensions and uncertain weather conditions [6] - Harbor Commodity All-Weather Strategy ETF (HGER) increased by 10.9%, benefiting from market volatility and capital flows towards diversified commodity ETFs [7] - Simplify Bond Bull ETF (RFIX) rose by 10.6%, driven by a risk-off sentiment and the desire for income amid market stress [8] - Teucrium Corn ETF (CORN) gained 6.3% as supply risks from South America, particularly Brazil, impacted corn production [9] - AGF U.S. Market Neutral Anti-Beta Fund (BTAL) increased by 5%, reflecting its strategy to provide negative beta exposure amid market volatility [10][12] Summary of Commodity Market Dynamics - The geopolitical situation has led to fears of supply disruptions, resulting in a rally in commodity prices, particularly for wheat and corn [11]

Global Asset Price Performance - Commodity prices have generally increased, driven by geopolitical risks between the US and Iran, with WTI and Brent crude oil prices rising by 3.8% and 4.9% respectively, and gold prices increasing by 3.3% [2] - Global stock markets showed mixed results, with the S&P 500, Dow Jones, and Nasdaq indices declining by 0.4%, 1.3%, and 1% respectively [2] - In the bond market, yields in major overseas markets mostly declined, with the 10-year US Treasury yield falling by 11 basis points compared to the previous week [2] - The US dollar index decreased by 0.1%, while the offshore RMB appreciated by 0.5% against the US dollar [2] Major Central Bank Monetary Policies - The Federal Reserve is advancing a "deregulation" agenda, proposing reforms to the banking regulatory framework, including raising asset thresholds for community banks and revising anti-money laundering reporting standards [4] - The European Central Bank (ECB) is maintaining its policy interest rates unchanged, with President Lagarde expecting inflation to stabilize at the 2% target in the medium term [4] - The Bank of Japan (BOJ) hinted at a possible interest rate hike in March or April if wage negotiations yield higher-than-expected results [4] US Mortgage Rates and Housing Market - The 30-year mortgage rate in the US has fallen below 6% for the first time since September 2022, potentially reviving housing demand [7] - Year-over-year growth rates for home prices have declined, with the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index, FHFA Home Price Index, and Freddie Mac Home Price Index recording decreases of 1.3%, 1.8%, and 0% respectively [7] - Inflation remains sticky, with the US December PPI showing a month-on-month increase of 0.5% and a year-on-year rate holding steady at 3% [7] Economic Dynamics in Other Regions - Economic confidence in Europe has decreased, with both the EU and Eurozone economic sentiment indices dropping by 1 point to 98.3, below the long-term average [12] - The UK private credit giant Market Financial Solutions (MFS) has entered bankruptcy proceedings due to allegations of fraud and asset double-pledging, raising concerns about the fragility of the private credit market [12]

Group 1 - The coal sector has seen a significant surge, with the coal ETF (515220) rising over 4.6% and a net inflow of over 400 million yuan for four consecutive days, bringing the current scale to over 8.8 billion yuan [1] - On the supply side, coal mines are expected to begin holiday breaks as the Spring Festival approaches, making it difficult for coal supply to increase in the short term. Mid-term, capacity reductions and policies related to disaster management in Inner Mongolia are anticipated to gradually roll out, potentially reducing coal supply [1] - On the demand side, power plants are experiencing increased daily consumption, leading to a decrease in available coal days. The demand for coal is expected to improve due to winter heating needs, with previously accumulated coal inventories being gradually depleted [1] Group 2 - The outlook for commodity prices suggests that trends such as loose liquidity, frequent geopolitical disturbances, and rising resource nationalism are likely to continue, which may drive up valuations in the coal sector [1] - The valuation and dividend characteristics of the coal industry are highlighted, with the China Securities Coal Index's price-to-book ratio at only 1.59 times and a dividend yield of 5.82%, indicating a high cost-performance ratio for defensive attributes in the current low-interest market environment [1]

Group 1: Commodity Price Surge - International copper futures rose by 4%, reaching 89,160 yuan [1] - Spot gold increased by over 1%, surpassing $4,530 per ounce, with a year-to-date gain of over 72%, potentially marking the best annual performance since 1979 [2] - Spot silver broke through $75 per ounce, achieving a historical high, with a year-to-date increase of 160% [2] Group 2: Market Performance and ETFs - A-shares of companies like Yongxing Materials and Jiangxi Copper hit the daily limit, while others like Zhongjin Resources and Tongling Nonferrous Metals rose over 5% [2] - Mining ETFs and non-ferrous mining ETFs saw gains of over 3%, with year-to-date increases exceeding 100% [2][3] - The Mining ETF managed by Guotai Fund has an estimated scale of 981 million yuan, with a year-to-date increase of 103.43% [3] Group 3: Industry Outlook - Huolong Securities noted a weakening negative correlation between gold and long-term U.S. Treasury yields, suggesting a strengthening of gold's status as a safe-haven asset [3] - Dongfang Securities indicated that the equity performance of gold, copper, aluminum, and iron has lagged behind commodity prices, with expectations for mid-term price increases as commodity prices continue to rise [3] - Guoxin Securities highlighted that the processing fee for copper concentrate contracts will drop to zero by 2026, reflecting a supply-demand mismatch in the copper mining and smelting industry [4] Group 4: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Fangzheng Securities expects continued upward momentum in copper and aluminum prices, driven by global copper inventory adjustments and supply shortages [5] - The anticipated tightening of copper supply is projected, with refined copper demand growth expected to outpace supply growth in 2026 [5] - The Federal Reserve's expected easing of monetary policy may further support copper prices, as historical trends show price increases following the end of Fed rate-cutting cycles [5]

Core Insights - Precious metals, including gold, silver, platinum, and palladium, are experiencing significant price increases, with gold reaching a new historical high of $4,382 per ounce [1] - The unexpected rise in the U.S. unemployment rate to 4.6% in November has led the market to reassess the Federal Reserve's interest rate path, providing strong support for gold prices [2] Market Analysis - The U.S. dollar index is weakening, which reduces the holding costs for gold; global central bank demand for gold remains strong, with demand expected to reach 1,313 tons by Q3 2025, a record high [2] - China's gold reserves increased to 74.12 million ounces by the end of November, marking a continuous increase for 13 months [2] - The combination of ample liquidity and constrained supply is driving commodity prices to high levels, with strategic value in raw materials becoming increasingly prominent [2] Technical Analysis - For gold, the short-term target is set between $4,430 and $4,440, with potential upward movement towards $4,470 to $4,500 or even $4,580 [3] - Silver maintains a long-term bullish outlook, with a core target of $100; however, there is a need to monitor for potential short-term adjustments after recent highs [3]

Group 1 - The domestic economy is expected to remain in a deflationary cycle into 2025, with prices of various goods such as housing, vehicles, small appliances, electronic products, and pork experiencing declines, which will lower consumer spending costs significantly [1] - Starting from December, prices of four categories of goods are predicted to rise significantly, prompting consumers to prepare in advance [1] Group 2 - Winter agricultural product prices are experiencing an increase, particularly in vegetables, with prices for items like green vegetables rising from 2.5 yuan per jin to 4-5 yuan per jin, tomatoes from 4.5 yuan per jin to 6-7 yuan per jin, and spinach from 5-6 yuan per jin to 8-9 yuan per jin [4] - The increase in vegetable prices is attributed to higher production costs due to winter greenhouse farming and increased transportation costs as many vegetables must be sourced from distant southern regions [4] Group 3 - Heating costs are expected to rise by 5%-10% in northern cities as centralized heating begins in December, leading to additional expenses of 50-200 yuan for an average two-bedroom apartment [5][7] - The rise in heating costs is driven by peak demand during winter and increased energy prices, particularly coal [7] Group 4 - Prices for winter clothing and accessories such as coats, hats, scarves, and gloves are also expected to rise due to increased demand and higher production costs for materials like down and cotton [9] - The demand for winter clothing surges as the cold season arrives, leading to a supply-demand imbalance that drives prices up [9] Group 5 - Prices for beef and lamb are increasing, with lamb rising from 55 yuan per jin to 68 yuan per jin and beef from 45 yuan per jin to 56 yuan per jin [11] - The price increase is driven by higher consumer demand for these meats during winter, as well as increased purchases by restaurants and canteens for winter dishes [11]

Core Viewpoint - The report from CITIC Securities indicates that supply disruptions in copper mines in September have driven copper prices to historical highs, while a significant reduction in cobalt export quotas from the Democratic Republic of the Congo in October is pushing cobalt prices upward. The supply-side disruptions are expected to continue influencing commodity prices into Q4 2025, with copper and cobalt prices likely to maintain an upward trend [1] Group 1: Copper and Cobalt Market - September saw increased supply disruptions in copper mining, leading to a surge in copper prices to historical highs [1] - The reduction in cobalt export quotas from the Democratic Republic of the Congo in October is contributing to rising cobalt prices [1] - Supply-side disruptions are anticipated to remain a key factor affecting commodity prices, particularly for copper and cobalt, into Q4 2025 [1] Group 2: Lithium and Silicon Products - The demand for lithium is expected to rise due to a significant increase in energy storage battery shipments, transitioning the industry from oversupply to a phase of temporary shortage [1] - Lithium prices are projected to continue increasing in Q4 2025 as a result of this heightened demand [1] - Silicon products, which experienced substantial price increases in Q3 due to expectations surrounding anti-competitive policies, are also expected to see slight price increases in Q4 [1]

Core Viewpoint - The CEO of Citigroup anticipates that as tariffs take effect, commodity prices will begin to gradually rise starting this summer [1] Group 1 - The implementation of tariffs is expected to influence commodity pricing dynamics [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The industry is rated as "Overweight", with an expected increase of over 10% compared to the benchmark index in the next 6 - 12 months [25] Core Viewpoints - The recent rally in commodity prices is a result of the resonance between supply disruptions and improved expectations, and there are four "suspicious points" in this rally [1] - The divergence between commodity prices and PPI is due to the stickiness of spot prices and the time - lag in price transmission. If the current trend continues, PPI is likely to rebound [1] - For the bond market, the significance of monitoring commodity prices lies in re - inflation and the market's ability to distinguish between supply - side and demand - side factors. There is a risk of adjustment if expectations boost the fundamentals [1] Summary by Directory Suspicious Point 1: Long - lasting and High - amplitude Increase - The commodity rally has lasted for a month, the longest this year, and has recovered nearly 50% of the decline since the tariff announcement. Technically, it seems more like a market reversal than a short - term rebound [1][4] Suspicious Point 2: Driven by Seemingly Random Factors but with a Rising Price Center - The rally can be divided into three stages: the first stage (604 - 612) was a technical rebound after the release of pessimistic sentiment; the second stage (613 - 624) saw prices rise and then fall due to the Israel - Iran war; the third stage (625 onwards) was driven by the "anti - involution" market. After these stages, the industrial product price index rose by 5.6% compared to June 3 [7][8] - The rising price center is due to three reasons: low prices leading to a high probability of upward movement, improved pessimistic expectations after the China - US leaders' call, and the seasonal tendency for prices to rise during the safety inspection and maintenance months of June and July [10][11] Suspicious Point 3: Lack of Demand - side Support for the Price Rebound - From the perspectives of fundamentals and price spreads, the demand side has been weak. The "old economy" related to real estate has not reversed its weakness, and the real estate market shows "weak volume and price" [15] - There is a divergence between futures and spot prices for some commodities, with the price increase mainly reflecting expectations rather than actual demand [17] Suspicious Point 4: The Commodity Rebound Has Not Yet Appeared in PPI - In June, PPI remained weak, with the year - on - year figure dropping by 0.3 percentage points compared to May. The divergence is due to the stickiness of spot prices and the time - lag in price transmission [19] - The weekly production materials price index has rebounded for three consecutive weeks since June. If the current trend continues, PPI is likely to rebound in July [20] Impact on the Bond Market - The significance of monitoring commodity prices for the bond market lies in re - inflation and the market's ability to distinguish between supply - side and demand - side factors [1] - Currently, the risk of a fundamental reversal in commodity prices is low, but the price rebound may be transmitted to inflation. There is a high possibility of improvement in July's PPI [1] - In the long run, commodity prices depend on the relative changes in supply and demand. If expectations boost the fundamentals, there is a risk of adjustment in the bond market [1]