Core Viewpoint - The commodity market is experiencing a transitional phase where old equilibria are loosening, and new equilibria have yet to stabilize, leading to increased volatility in prices, particularly in silver and other commodities [1][6]. Group 1: Commodity Price Dynamics - Recent fluctuations in silver prices reflect a broader trend where multiple commodities are undergoing significant price changes without a clear, consistent driving factor [1]. - Since 2016, the volatility of major commodity price indices has shown a synchronized increase, particularly around 2020 and 2022, indicating a high level of uncertainty across various commodities [1][2]. - The current state of the commodity market is characterized by simultaneous high uncertainty across different types of commodities, influenced by various underlying factors [1][2]. Group 2: Structural Changes in Demand and Supply - The restructuring of the global manufacturing system, driven by energy transition, digital expansion, and infrastructure updates, has led to resilient demand for certain industrial raw materials [2]. - Traditional investment and real estate-related demand are entering an adjustment phase, revealing structural differentiation in demand [2]. - The supply side has been constrained due to weak capital expenditure in the commodity sector over the past decade, leading to reduced supply elasticity and increased sensitivity to geopolitical and climatic disruptions [4][5]. Group 3: Financial Participation and Pricing Mechanisms - Increased financial participation in commodity markets has altered pricing dynamics, making prices more sensitive to short-term information and leading to more frequent adjustments [3][5]. - The relationship between inventory levels and prices has become unstable, with prices often adjusting through jumps rather than gradual changes, reflecting the complexities introduced by multiple structural changes [5][6]. Group 4: Macroeconomic Implications - The current pricing behavior of commodities mirrors the broader macroeconomic environment, where traditional growth models are losing effectiveness, and new technologies and policies are reshaping demand and cost structures [6][7]. - The high frequency of price adjustments indicates that the market is continuously recalibrating its expectations in response to new information, reflecting a transitional phase in the global economy [6][8]. - The ongoing volatility in commodity prices serves as a micro-level representation of the macroeconomic shifts, highlighting the need for dynamic coordination in forming macroeconomic equilibria [7][8].

Core Insights - The article discusses the recent volatility in commodity prices, particularly silver, indicating that while some commodities have reached new price levels, the sustainability of these trends remains uncertain [1][10]. Group 1: Commodity Price Trends - Silver prices have shown significant fluctuations, with frequent changes in direction, suggesting that single factors are insufficient to explain price movements [1]. - The overall commodity market is experiencing a transitional state where old equilibria are loosening, and new equilibria have yet to stabilize [1][10]. - Since 2016, major commodity price indices have exhibited synchronized volatility, particularly around 2020 and 2022, indicating a high level of uncertainty across various commodities [2]. Group 2: Structural Changes - The restructuring of the global manufacturing system, driven by energy transition, digital expansion, and infrastructure updates, has led to resilient demand for certain industrial materials [2]. - Traditional investment and real estate-related demand are undergoing adjustments, resulting in structural differentiation in demand [2][6]. - The changes in the cost structure, particularly due to energy transition, have significantly impacted pricing logic across the commodity sector [3]. Group 3: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Supply constraints, demand differentiation, and financial behaviors have contributed to the tendency for commodity prices to exhibit phase jumps [6]. - The correlation between inventory levels and price changes has shown instability, indicating that single supply-demand signals are insufficient to explain price movements [6][7]. - The demand for industrial metals is supported by emerging industries and infrastructure investments, while traditional manufacturing cycles have become more volatile [6]. Group 4: Financial Participation and Pricing - Increased financial participation has altered pricing mechanisms, particularly in actively traded industrial metals like copper, leading to more frequent price adjustments [7]. - The relationship between inventory and price has become unstable, reflecting the complexities introduced by simultaneous structural changes [7][14]. - Prices are now more sensitive to marginal changes due to supply-demand mismatches and heightened financial involvement, resulting in a tendency for prices to adjust in a jump-like manner [7]. Group 5: Macroeconomic Implications - The current state of commodity prices reflects broader macroeconomic conditions, where traditional growth models are losing effectiveness, and new technologies and policies are reshaping demand and cost structures [10][11]. - The high frequency of price adjustments indicates that the market is still calibrating its long-term structural judgments [10][14]. - The ongoing volatility in commodity prices serves as a lens through which to understand the increasing complexity and turmoil in the global economic landscape [11][14].

Oil Market - Oil prices rose to their highest level since early December due to concerns over supply disruptions from Iran, with WTI crude closing above $59 per barrel, marking a cumulative increase of over 6% in the previous three trading days [2][9] - Iran's political and military unrest poses a threat to its oil production of approximately 3.3 million barrels per day, with potential military action from the U.S. being a significant concern [10][2] Base Metals - Copper prices initially surged by 2.5% to $13,323 per ton but later retraced some gains, influenced by a weaker dollar and supply concerns [4][13] - Other base metals like aluminum and tin reached their highest levels since 2022, although they also experienced a pullback due to market volatility and a rebalancing of a benchmark commodity index [5][14] - As of the London market close, LME copper was up 1.6% at $13,209.5 per ton, while LME aluminum rose 1.6% to $3,184.5 per ton [15] Precious Metals - Gold and silver prices reached record highs amid concerns regarding the independence of the Federal Reserve, with gold surpassing $4,600 per ounce and silver rising by up to 8% to over $86 [7][16] - The potential for increased intervention by the Federal Reserve is seen as a key factor that could positively influence the precious metals market in the coming years [16] - As of 3:15 PM EST, gold was up 2.1% at $4,603.22 per ounce, and silver was up 6.6% at $85.1554 per ounce [17]

1月9日晚，美股三大指数集体高开。截至北京时间10日凌晨0:15，道琼斯指数涨0.41%，标普500指数涨0.56%，纳斯达克综合指数涨0.72%。（编者注： 截至收盘，道指涨237.96点，涨幅为0.48%，报49504.07点；纳指涨191.33点，涨幅为0.81%，报23671.35点；标普500指数涨44.82点，涨幅为0.65%，报 6966.28点。） 据智通财经，1月9日，有网友发现，周生生天猫旗舰店里一件黄金生生有喜系列珍珠四叶草项链价格上调至136000元。 当日晚间，智通财经从周生生天猫旗舰店客服获悉，这款项链此前一天售价120800元，一夜之间暴涨15200元；叠加店铺满3800减60的优惠活动，券后价 135940元。 大型科技股涨跌不一，其中，英特尔涨超8%，创2024年4月份以来盘中新高。芯片股普涨，费城半导体指数涨超2%，阿斯麦涨超5%，美光科技涨超3%。 | 名称 급금 E | 现价 | 涨跌幅 ▼▶ | | --- | --- | --- | | 英特尔(INTEL) | 44.520 | 8.29% | | US INTC | | | | 谷歌(ALPHABET)-C | ...

4.1 全球经济展望 2026 年，全球经济将在温和放缓的态势下持续发展，新兴市场将逐渐取代发达经济体，成为最为关键的增长核心。 货币政策也将从宽松转向观望，并结合数据依赖。"聚焦结构分化、把握政策窗口、管控尾部风险"是 2026 年最为重 要的应对策略。 | | | | 2026年主要经济体经济展望 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 经济体 | 经济增速频测 | 核心驱动因素 | 制约因素 | 通胀轰现/风险 | | | 从 2025 年 2.6% 放缓至 | 消费慢性延续;AI 相关私人资本开支 | 就业市场康软导致个人消费增速回落 : 高利 | 关税政策可能引发局部通胀波动;美 | | 美国 | 2026 年 1.8%-2.0% (美 | 外溢效应(2025年科技企业资本开支 | 率遗留财政压力(2024年财政净利息支出 | 联储预测 2026 年核心 PCE 通胀中值 | | | 联储预期中值 1.8%) | +12%) | 占 GDP3.06%, 创 1996年以来新高); 关 | 2.6% | | | | | 税政策传导引发通胀波动 | | | | 从20 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core View of the Report - PX market sentiment is supported by the expectation of tight supply in Q1 2026, with the PX-naphtha spread widening to $360 and the PX-mixed xylene spread rising to $244, which encourages PX producers to actively purchase MX for conversion [2] - Demand remains robust, with domestic PTA maintaining high operation rates, benefiting from stable domestic demand and the resumption of exports to India since the end of November [2] - High gasoline spreads support aromatics. The commissioning of new polyester plants keeps the polyester load at a high level, with PTA consumption remaining high and market hoarding intentions increasing, leading to a rapid strengthening of the basis [2] - Although polyester demand weakens seasonally in the domestic market, the production cuts by polyester factories are insufficient to form a negative feedback. PTA prices are significantly boosted by the enthusiastic sentiment in the commodity market, and the costs of bottle chips and short fibers follow suit [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Indicators Spot Prices - PTA spot price increased from 5065 to 5100, a change of 35 [2] - MEG domestic price increased from 3687 to 3694, a change of 7 [2] Futures Closing Prices - PTA closing price increased from 5122 to 5144, a change of 22 [2] - MEG closing price increased from 3817 to 3847, a change of 30 [2] Short Fiber Indicators - 1.4D direct-spun polyester staple fiber price increased from 6620 to 6640, a change of 20 [2] - Short fiber basis decreased from 120 to 86, a change of -34 [2] - 2 - 3 spread increased from 6 to 8, a change of 2 [2] - Polyester staple fiber cash flow increased from 240 to 246, a change of 6 [2] - 1.4D direct-spun and imitation large chemical fiber price difference increased from 1345 to 1365, a change of 20 [2] Bottle Chip Indicators - Polyester bottle chip prices in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang markets remained stable, with the average price unchanged from the previous working day [2] - PTA and bottle chip futures fluctuated narrowly, with most supply offers remaining unchanged, and the market negotiation atmosphere was cautious [2] - Downstream terminal demand was relatively stable, and the market negotiation focus remained temporarily stable [2] Other Product Indicators - T32S pure polyester yarn price increased from 10380 to 10400, a change of 20 [2] - T32S pure polyester yarn processing fee remained unchanged at 3760 [2] - Polyester-cotton yarn 65/35 45S price remained unchanged at 16370 [2] - Cotton 328 price increased from 15240 to 15280, a change of 40 [2] - Polyester-cotton yarn profit decreased from 1220 to 1192, a change of -28 [2] - Primary three-dimensional hollow (with silicon) price decreased from 7216 to 7215, a change of -1 [2] - Hollow short fiber 6 - 15D cash flow decreased from 450 to 417, a change of -33 [2] - Primary low-melting short fiber price remained unchanged at 7775 [2] Operating Rates and Sales Ratios - Direct-spun short fiber week-on-week load increased from 88.37% to 89.32%, a change of 0.95% [3] - Polyester staple fiber sales ratio increased from 54.00% to 55.00%, a change of 1.00% [3] - Polyester yarn week-on-week startup rate remained unchanged at 66.00% [3] - Recycled cotton-type week-on-week load index remained unchanged at 51.10% [3]

铀（U3O8）收于81.4美元/磅，上涨0.18%。 62%品位铁矿粉收于107.15美元/吨，基本持平。58%品位铁矿粉收于94.45美元/吨，基本持平。 纽约商品交易所黄金价格收于4531.5美元/盎司，上涨1.13%。银79.11美元/盎司，上涨5.89%。铂2467.7 美元/盎司，上涨10.05%。钯1985.0美元/盎司，上涨12.37%。 来源：自然资源部 上周五（26日），国际原油价格下跌，有色金属价格小幅震荡，银价则暴涨。 西德克萨斯中油（WTI）收于56.92美元/桶，下跌2.52%。布伦特（Brent）原油收于60.27美元/桶，下跌 2.54%。 ...

Group 1: Oil Market Dynamics - The international oil price has dropped significantly due to weak demand and geopolitical factors, with a total decline of approximately 20% this year, reaching its lowest level since February 2021 [2] - The commodity trading giant Trafigura warns of a "super surplus" in the oil market next year due to a combination of supply surge and declining global demand [2] - Analysts predict that the peak of supply surplus will occur in the first quarter of 2026, with expectations of continued inventory growth throughout the year, putting further pressure on oil prices [3] Group 2: Gold Market Trends - International gold prices have surged from $2,650 per ounce at the beginning of the year to over $4,000 per ounce, marking a significant bull market with a year-to-date increase of approximately 60% [4] - Central banks have shown strong demand for gold, with net purchases reaching 254 tons from January to October, providing substantial support for gold prices [4] - The International Clearing Bank (BIS) warns of potential bubble signs in the gold market due to excessive optimism and rising valuations, which could lead to a price correction of 5% to 20% [5] Group 3: Copper Market Outlook - The price of copper is expected to remain robust due to global industrial transformation, particularly in the electric vehicle sector, with a projected demand increase of around 3% in 2026 [7] - Supply constraints, exacerbated by incidents such as the collapse of a copper mine in Chile, have led to reduced production forecasts, supporting copper prices [7] - Goldman Sachs predicts that over 60% of copper demand growth by 2030 will be driven by investments in power infrastructure, indicating strong long-term prospects for copper [8]

U.S. stocks traded higher midway through trading, with the Dow Jones index gaining more than 150 points on Monday.The Dow traded up 0.39% to 48,322.06 while the NASDAQ jumped 0.46% to 23,417.50. The S&P 500 also rose, gaining, 0.46% to 6,866.26.Check This Out: GE Vernova To Rally Around 26%? Here Are 10 Top Analyst Forecasts For MondayLeading and Lagging SectorsMaterials shares rose by 1.3% on Monday.In trading on Monday, utilities stocks fell by 0.2%.Top HeadlineUniFirst Corp (NYSE:UNF) received an acquisi ...

商业航天头部企业集中上市推动行业进入规模化阶段，印 尼拟大幅下调 2026 年镍矿产量目标以稳定镍价 20251221 印尼镍矿政策变化对相关企业有何影响？ 摘要 某公司获得海上风电海缆订单，预计净利润约 4 亿元，提升公司海外订 单成长性，预计 2026 年利润达 22 亿元，2027 年达 28 亿元，当前估 值低于 20 倍，股价值得关注。 印尼加强镍矿生产管控，可能推升镍价。镍价已接近冶炼成本线，若实 施配额制将减少供给压力。方圆股份、华友钴业和格林美等镍相关企业 具备较强进攻属性。 商业航天发展影响太空算力供电领域，易事捷钙钛矿叠层技术具性价比， 迈为是其核心设备供应商，东方日升产品表现出色。华菱线缆为军工企 业供应特种电缆，值得关注。 银价上涨对光伏行业成本构成压力。爱旭探索贱金属替代贵金属技术， 帝科和聚合开发非银化替代方案，以降低银浆成本，这些创新举措值得 关注。 Q&A 东方电缆近期有哪些重要进展？对其未来业绩有何预期？ 东方电缆在本周末公告获得东南亚电力互联项目订单，金额约为 19 亿元。这 一订单超出市场预期，预计将在 2026 年后逐步贡献业绩增长，可能主要集中 在 2027 年。按 ...