2025.11.21 本文字数：1612，阅读时长大约3分钟 作者 |第一财经 陈益刊 今年以来中国财政政策更加积极，财政支出保持一定力度，推动经济持续回升向好。 根据财政部最新数据测算，今年前10个月，广义财政（即全国一般公共预算和全国政府性基金预算）收 入约22.1万亿元，同比增长约0.2%；广义财政支出约30.7万亿元，同比增长约5.2%；广义财政支出超过 收入约8.6万亿元，同比增长约21%。 广义财政支出规模及增速，是衡量财政政策积极程度的关键指标。在今年以来广义财政收入基本与去年 同期持平情况下，广义财政支出保持5.2%的增速，明显高于收入增速。这说明积极财政政策发力，财 政支出保持一定力度。广义财政支出增速与前三季度经济增速（5.2%）持平，支持了经济平稳运行。 从财政支出结构来看，今年财政资金明显向民生领域倾斜，这也与今年政府工作报告提出推动更多资金 资源"投资于人"相契合。 与民生关联最为紧密的是全国一般公共预算账本。根据财政部数据，今年前10个月，全国一般公共预算 支出约22.6万亿元，同比增长2%。其中与民生关联最为紧密的社会保障和就业支出（3.8万亿元）、教 育支出（3.4万亿元）、卫 ...

Core Viewpoint - China's fiscal policy has become more proactive this year, with fiscal spending maintaining a certain level of intensity, which supports the continuous recovery of the economy [3]. Fiscal Revenue and Expenditure - In the first ten months of this year, the broad fiscal revenue was approximately 22.1 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of about 0.2%, while broad fiscal expenditure was about 30.7 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.2% [3]. - The broad fiscal expenditure exceeded revenue by approximately 8.6 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 21% [3]. Fiscal Spending Structure - The structure of fiscal spending has shown a clear tilt towards the livelihood sector, aligning with the government's report advocating for more resources to be "invested in people" [4]. - In the first ten months, the general public budget expenditure was approximately 22.6 trillion yuan, with social security and employment spending reaching 3.8 trillion yuan, education spending at 3.4 trillion yuan, and health spending at 1.7 trillion yuan, all showing growth rates above the average of 2% [4]. Infrastructure Spending - Due to increased funding directed towards livelihood, infrastructure spending in the general public budget has seen an overall decline [5]. - Expenditures on agriculture, forestry, and water, as well as urban and rural community spending, decreased by 11.7% and 7.3% respectively [7]. Government Fund Expenditure - Government fund budget expenditure was approximately 8.1 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 15.4%, primarily due to accelerated use of bond funds [7]. - The issuance of special bonds and long-term special treasury bonds has supported the commencement of numerous major projects, stabilizing investment and the economy [7]. Future Fiscal Policy Measures - To maintain a certain level of fiscal spending, new policies have been introduced, including allowing local governments to issue an additional 500 billion yuan in special bonds [9]. - As of mid-November, over 10 billion yuan in new special bonds had been issued, surpassing the total for October [9].

广 发证券资 深宏观分析师 吴棋滢 wuqiying@gf.com.cn 广发宏观郭磊团队 报告摘要 第一， 10 月公共财政收入同比 3.2% ，创年内单月增速高点。其中税收表现偏强，同比 8.6% ，大致持平前值 8.7% 的高位，显著高于前 8 个月累计同比的 0.02% 。同时财政对非税的依赖度进一步下降，非税收入同比 -33% 。今年财政收入年累计增速并不高，前 10 个月同 比为 0.8% ，和今年名义 GDP 增速中枢依然偏低的状况匹配；但 9 月以来边际改善较为明显。 第二， 10月税收增速为何偏强？基数并不是关键，从绝对规模来看，10月税收收入也显著超出季节性。其中个人所得税近月表现相对突 出，9月个税同比16.7%、10月同比27.3%。我们理解一则可能与资本市场表现活跃、财富效应有所增加有关；二则可能与10月实施的《互 联网平台企业涉税信息报送规定》有关。除个税外，消费税由于其税收结构，或受金价上行的带动较多。企业所得税和国内增值税的好 转，应与PPI环比改善有关，后者9月以来的好转还与增值税留抵退税政策、国债等利息收入政策调整有关。 第三， 财政支出同比下行12.9个百分点至-9.8% ...

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights a significant rebound in economic indicators for October, driven by the implementation of new policy financial tools, suggesting a recovery in the economy after a challenging period in July and August [1][4][15]. Economic Indicators - The October EPMI (Emerging Purchasing Managers Index) rose sharply by 7.3 points to 59.7, indicating strong seasonal characteristics typical of autumn [4][22]. - The BCI (Business Confidence Index) increased by 0.9 points to 52.0, confirming a positive trend in economic performance from September to October [1][4]. Sales and Profit Expectations - Sales and profit indices showed a slight pullback in October but remained at the second-highest level since May, indicating sustained autumn demand [6][8]. - The sales forecast index for October was 59.7, down from 60.9, while the profit forecast index was 47.4, down from 48.3, reflecting a weaker outlook compared to previous months [6][8]. Investment and Employment Outlook - Investment and employment forward-looking indices reached their highest levels of the year, attributed to the positive impact of policy financial tools on corporate expectations [2][8]. - As of October 17, new policy financial tools had injected 189.35 billion yuan, expected to stimulate a total project investment of 2.8 trillion yuan [2][8]. Financing Environment - The corporate financing environment index saw a significant increase, indicating improved credit conditions due to policy financial tools being used to supplement project capital [11]. - The October financing environment index was 52.4, surpassing the previous value of 47.6, with only three months in the year exceeding 50 [11]. Price Expectations - Price indices for intermediate and consumer goods showed varying degrees of decline, influenced by commodity price fluctuations [12]. - The consumer price forecast index for October was 44.7, down from 47.9, while the intermediate goods price forecast index was 33.4, down from 38.0, indicating uncertainty in future price trends [12]. Policy Implications - The rebound in EPMI and BCI data suggests that the economy is sensitive to investment, with the primary challenge for macroeconomic policy being the expansion of demand rather than merely lowering interest rates [15]. - If construction projects are prioritized in 2026, there is a high probability of a gradual recovery in nominal growth throughout the year, potentially leading to a second phase of a profit-driven bull market [15].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes that China's export growth is entering a new phase in 2024-2025, with an overall high growth rate expected, driven by various factors including fiscal expansion in developed economies and increased global demand for new industrial products [2][5][6]. Export Growth Analysis - In September, China's exports increased by 8.3% year-on-year, maintaining a high level, with a month-on-month growth of 2.1%, consistent with seasonal averages [3][5]. - The third quarter saw a year-on-year export growth of 6.6%, aligning with expectations, despite a seasonal low of 1.0% month-on-month [5]. - For the fourth quarter, a simple calculation suggests a year-on-year growth of 3.6% if the month-on-month growth aligns with the seasonal average [5]. Historical Context - From 2000 to 2011, China's export growth averaged 21.8%, significantly outpacing global export growth of 11.0% [6]. - The period from 2012 to 2019 saw a decline in China's export growth, averaging only 3.7%, while global export growth was around 0.7% [7]. - The years 2020 to 2023 experienced high volatility in exports, with China’s growth fluctuating in response to global supply chain disruptions [7]. Future Projections - In 2024, global exports are projected to grow by 2.3%, while China's exports are expected to grow by 5.8% [8]. - The article predicts that in 2024-2025, China's export growth will exceed global growth by more than double, driven by factors such as fiscal policies in developed countries and increased demand for high-tech products [6]. Regional Export Dynamics - Exports to ASEAN and Africa have shown significant growth, with cumulative year-on-year increases of 14.7% and 28.3% respectively in the first nine months of the year [10]. - Exports to Africa have been particularly strong, with a year-on-year growth of 56.4% in September [10]. Product Export Performance - High-end product exports are experiencing substantial growth, with exports of integrated circuits increasing by 32.7% and general machinery by 24.9% [11]. - In contrast, labor-intensive products like textiles and clothing have seen a decline in exports, with a combined year-on-year decrease of 5.8% [11]. Import Trends - In September, imports grew by 7.4% year-on-year, with significant increases in iron ore, copper, and integrated circuits [12]. - The acceleration in imports may be linked to policy-driven financial tools and project initiations, indicating potential improvements in investment for the fourth quarter [12].

Core Viewpoint - The BCI index from Changjiang Business School showed a significant rebound in September, rising from 46.9 to 51.1, indicating a potential improvement in economic conditions compared to previous months [1][5]. Group 1: BCI Index and Economic Indicators - The BCI index's increase in September is attributed to both month-on-month and year-on-year factors, with September being a peak season for industry and a low point in the previous year [1][5]. - The sales and profit forward-looking indices of BCI increased by 13.9 and 7.2 points respectively, suggesting the seasonal characteristics of "autumn prosperity" are beginning to manifest [7]. - The sales forward-looking index for September reached 60.9, recovering from a low of 47.0 in August, while the profit forward-looking index rose to 48.3 from 41.0 in August [7]. Group 2: Price Indices and Inventory Changes - Both price indices showed upward trends, with consumer goods price expectations improving more significantly than intermediate goods, indicating a positive outlook for consumer prices [2][8]. - The inventory forward-looking index rose sharply in August but fell quickly in September, reflecting passive inventory changes due to weak demand in August and subsequent demand recovery in September [10][11]. Group 3: Financing Environment - The corporate financing environment index showed a slight month-on-month increase, continuing the seasonal pattern of improvement at the end of quarters [3][14]. - The financing environment index for September was 47.6, indicating a need for policy support as it remains weaker than the levels seen in March and June [3][14]. Group 4: Economic Indicators and Market Relationships - The BCI can be viewed as a shadow indicator of economic fundamentals, with historical correlations observed between BCI and stock/interest rate movements [4][15]. - The divergence between stock performance and BCI primarily occurred in January and during June to August, suggesting that market expectations around policy and economic growth are influencing asset pricing [4][15].

Revenue and Expenditure Overview - From January to August 2025, general public budget revenue totaled CNY 14.82 trillion, a year-on-year increase of 0.3%[2] - General public budget expenditure for the same period reached CNY 17.93 trillion, with a year-on-year growth of 3.1%[2] - In August 2025, general public budget revenue was CNY 1.24 trillion, up 2.0% year-on-year, while expenditure was CNY 1.86 trillion, reflecting a 0.8% increase[4] Tax Revenue Insights - Tax revenue continues to outperform non-tax revenue, with August tax revenue growing by 3.4% year-on-year, marking five consecutive months of positive growth[5] - Manufacturing accounted for over 30% of total tax revenue, with a growth rate exceeding 5% in the first eight months of 2025[5] - Securities transaction stamp duty surged by 226% in August, driven by increased market activity, contributing significantly to tax revenue growth[8] Fiscal Pressure and Challenges - The fiscal data for August indicates mounting pressure, with weakened consumption impacting tax revenue and a declining real estate sector exacerbating fiscal income challenges[23] - Government fund revenue fell by 5.7% year-on-year in August, primarily due to a 5.8% drop in land transfer income[18] - Infrastructure spending remains weak, with related expenditures showing a significant decline of 13.2% when combined[13] Future Outlook and Policy Implications - The necessity for incremental policy measures is rising due to anticipated economic pressures and the nearing end of government bond issuance in the fourth quarter[23] - The potential for early utilization of next year's debt quota and the timing of policy financial tools will be critical in supporting economic stability[23]

Revenue and Expenditure Trends - From January to August 2025, the national general public budget revenue was 148,198 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.3%[1] - National general public budget expenditure reached 179,324 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 3.1%[1] - In August 2025, general fiscal revenue grew by 0.3% year-on-year, a decline of 3.3 percentage points compared to July[5] - General fiscal expenditure in August 2025 increased by 6% year-on-year, down 6.1 percentage points from July[5] Budget Completion Rates - The budget completion rate for general fiscal revenue in the first eight months was 61.9%, slightly below the five-year average of 62.7%[5] - General fiscal expenditure budget completion was 57.3%, also below the five-year average of 58.8%[5] Government Debt and Fiscal Support - As of the end of August, net financing of government bonds and new special bonds totaled 8.5 trillion yuan, with an issuance progress of 72%[2] - The large-scale support phase of government debt financing for general fiscal expenditure is nearing its end, indicating a potential decline in fiscal support for the economy[2] - The issuance of new government debt is approaching its limit, which may hinder the maintenance of high growth rates in general fiscal expenditure going forward[11] Fund Revenue and Expenditure - Government fund revenue fell significantly, with a year-on-year decrease of 5.7% in August 2025, contributing to the decline in general fiscal revenue growth[3] - The budget completion rate for government fund revenue in August was 5.3%, lower than the five-year average of 7.1%[18] Economic Growth Implications - The decline in government fund revenue and the nearing end of debt support may put pressure on future economic growth[11] - Retail growth related to "old-for-new" programs has slowed since June, impacting equipment purchase investment growth as well[11]

Revenue and Expenditure Overview - From January to August, the national general public budget revenue reached CNY 14,819.8 billion, a year-on-year increase of 0.3%[2] - Tax revenue for the same period was CNY 12,108.5 billion, showing a slight increase of 0.02% year-on-year[2] - General public budget expenditure from January to August totaled CNY 17,932.4 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 3.1%[2] Monthly Performance Insights - In August, general public budget revenue increased by 2% year-on-year, down from 2.6% in the previous month[3] - Tax revenue in August saw a year-on-year increase of 3.4%, a decline from 5% in July[3] - Non-tax revenue in August decreased by 3.8% year-on-year, improving from a decline of 12.9% in July[3] Structural Changes in Revenue - Personal income tax grew by 9.7% year-on-year, down from 13.9% previously, contributing 1.1 percentage points to tax revenue[12] - Corporate income tax surged by 33.4% year-on-year, significantly up from 6.4%, contributing 2.3 percentage points to tax revenue[12] - Value-added tax increased slightly from 4.3% to 4.4% year-on-year, contributing 2.1 percentage points to tax revenue[12] Expenditure Trends - General public expenditure in August grew by only 0.8% year-on-year, down from 3% in July[14] - Infrastructure-related expenditure saw a significant decline of 10.1% year-on-year, worsening from a decline of 3.8% previously[15] - Social welfare expenditure increased by 6.3% year-on-year, down from 9.7%[15] Government Fund Budget Performance - Government fund revenue in August decreased by 5.7% year-on-year, with land transfer revenue dropping by 5.8%[21] - Government fund expenditure continued to decline, with a year-on-year increase of 19.8%, down from 42.4%[21] - For the first eight months, government fund revenue decreased by 1.4%, while expenditure grew by 30%[21] Economic Outlook - The GDP growth rate for August is estimated to be below 4%, with a potential rebound in September but a noticeable decline in overall third-quarter growth compared to the first half of the year[25] - There is a need for enhanced fiscal policy to support economic growth, with plans to expedite the use of unallocated funds[26]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the performance of fiscal revenue and expenditure in August, highlighting a slight year-on-year increase in tax revenue while non-tax revenue continues to decline, indicating a need for sustained economic growth policies [1][4][25]. Fiscal Revenue - In August, fiscal revenue increased by 2.0% year-on-year, with tax revenue rising by 3.4% and non-tax revenue decreasing by 3.8%, continuing the trend of stronger tax revenue since May [1][5]. - Cumulative fiscal revenue from January to August showed a slight increase of 0.3%, slightly exceeding the initial budget target of 0.1% [1][6]. - The performance of corporate income tax, personal income tax, and domestic value-added tax in August was strong, with year-on-year increases of 33.4%, 9.7%, and 4.4%, respectively [2][11]. Fiscal Expenditure - Fiscal expenditure in August showed a decline, with spending growth lower than the average level for the same period in previous years, primarily due to a slowdown in infrastructure-related expenditures [3][16]. - Social security and employment expenditures maintained a high growth rate of 10.9% year-on-year in August, contributing positively to overall expenditure growth [3][16]. - Cumulative fiscal expenditure from January to August increased by 3.1%, which is still below the initial budget target of 4.4% [17]. Broader Fiscal Context - Land revenue growth further declined by 12.9 percentage points to -5.8% in August, reflecting a significant drop in land sales [21]. - The overall performance of government fund income from January to August showed a cumulative decline of 1.4%, indicating challenges in meeting the annual growth target of 0.7% [21][25]. - The article emphasizes the need for new policies to stabilize growth, particularly in the context of declining contributions from the real estate sector [25].