数据日报 国贸期货研究院 投资咨询号: Z0021658 农产品研究中心 黄向岚 从业资格号: F03110419 目前美豆的2025/26年度期末库存预估仍处于2.9亿蒲式耳的水平，美豆库消比处于6.7%的偏低水平,对CBOT美豆下方预期带来一定 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 ITG国贸期货 2026/1/8 | 指标 | | 1月7日 | 涨跌 | | | | 豆粕主力合约基差(张家港) | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 大连 | 389 | -15 | 2500 | ===== 16/17 == | ===== 17/18 == | ----- 18/19 == | ----- 19/20 - 24/25 | == 25/26 | | | 天津 | 359 | -15 | 2000 1500 | | | | | | | 43%豆粕现货基差 (对主力合约) | 日照 | 329 | 5 | 1000 500 | | | | | | | | 张家港 | 309 | -15 | -50 ...

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2026-01-08 现货升水保持强势 重要数据 现货方面：LME锌现货升水为-36.67美元/吨。SMM上海锌现货价较前一交易日变化-40元/吨至24300元/吨，SMM 上海锌现货升贴水110元/吨；SMM广东锌现货价较前一交易日-30元/吨至24210元/吨，广东锌现货升贴水20元/吨； 天津锌现货价较前一交易日-40元/吨至24220元/吨，天津锌现货升贴水30元/吨。 期货方面：2026-01-07沪锌主力合约开于24300元/吨，收于24330元/吨，较前一交易日195元/吨，全天交易日成交 187735手，全天交易日持仓91603手，日内价格最高点达到24515元/吨，最低点达到24145元/吨。 库存方面：截至2026-01-07，SMM七地锌锭库存总量为11.48万吨，较上期变化0.87万吨。截止2026-01-07，LME 锌库存为105500吨，较上一交易日变化-275吨。 市场分析 现货市场供应依旧偏紧，贸易商报价升水坚挺，部分地区升水持续走强，虽然下游采购畏高，但刚性需求仍在。 国产矿TC停止下跌，进口矿仍在小幅回落，虽然经历冬储后冶炼厂原料库存有所增加，但 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment ratings were provided in the report. Core Viewpoints of the Report - A-share market is expected to continue its upward trend in the short term and may rise further in 2026 compared to 2025, supported by macro policies, inflation, capital market reforms, and the role of Central Huijin [1]. - The bond market is favored by asset shortages and weak economic conditions, but the central bank has recently warned of interest rate risks [1]. - Metal prices are influenced by factors such as supply disruptions, macro sentiment, and cost changes. Some metals are expected to have upward trends, while others may experience volatility or are subject to supply concerns [1]. - Energy and chemical product prices are affected by factors such as geopolitical conflicts, supply and demand, and cost support. Some products are expected to have upward trends, while others may experience volatility [1]. - Agricultural product prices are influenced by factors such as seasonal changes, policy support, and supply and demand. Some products are expected to have upward trends, while others may experience volatility [1]. Summary by Category A-shares - A-share market has continuous trading volume increase. Short-term, the index is expected to remain strong. In 2026, the index may continue to rise on the basis of 2025, supported by macro policies, inflation, capital market reforms, and Central Huijin [1]. Bonds - Asset shortages and weak economic conditions are favorable for bond futures, but the central bank has recently warned of interest rate risks. Attention should be paid to the Bank of Japan's interest rate decision [1]. Metals - Copper: Supply disruptions and improved macro sentiment have led to a rise in copper prices, and the upward trend is expected to continue [1]. - Aluminum: Domestic electrolytic aluminum has accumulated inventory, but macro sentiment is positive, and global aluminum ingot supply is expected to tighten, leading to a strong aluminum price [1]. - Alumina: Supply has significant release potential, putting pressure on prices. However, the current price is close to the cost line, and the price is expected to oscillate [1]. - Zinc: Fundamentals have improved, and the cost center has shifted upward. With positive macro sentiment, zinc prices have risen, but the upside space is limited due to fundamental pressure [1]. - Nickel: Supply concerns have led to a significant increase in nickel prices and an increase in positions. The short-term price may be strongly oscillating, but high risks and volatility are present at high price levels. Attention should be paid to Indonesian policies and macro sentiment [1]. Industrial and Energy Chemicals - Polycrystalline silicon: Northwest production has increased, while southwest production has decreased. December production schedules for polycrystalline silicon and organic silicon have declined [1]. - Carbonate lithium: It is the traditional peak season for new energy vehicles, with strong energy storage demand and increased supply from restarts. Prices have risen rapidly in the short term [1]. - Rebar and hot-rolled coil: Futures-spot arbitrage positions can be rolled for profit-taking. The price valuation is not high, and short-selling is not recommended [1]. - Iron ore: Near-term contracts are restricted by production cuts, but the commodity sentiment is positive, and there is still an upward opportunity for far-term contracts [1]. - Silicone and ferrosilicon: There is a combination of weak reality and strong expectations. In the short term, expectations dominate, and energy consumption control and anti-involution may disrupt supply [1]. - Soda ash: The market sentiment has improved, and the supply and demand are supportive. The price is low and expected to be strong in the short term [1]. - Coking coal and coke: If the "capacity reduction" expectation continues to ferment and there is pre-holiday restocking of spot goods, there may still be room for price increases, but the actual increase is difficult to judge, and volatility increases after a significant rise [1]. Agricultural Products - Palm oil: The December MPOB data is expected to be bearish, but the price is expected to reverse under themes such as seasonal production cuts, the B50 policy, and US biofuels. Short-term rebounds due to macro sentiment should be watched out for [1]. - Soybean oil: The fundamentals are strong, and it is recommended to be overweight in the oil market. Consider the spread between soybean oil and palm oil [1]. - Cotton: There is support but no driving force in the short term. Future attention should be paid to the central government's No. 1 document in the first quarter of next year, planting area intentions, weather during the planting period, and peak season demand [1]. - Sugar: There is a global surplus and increased domestic supply. The short side consensus is strong. If the price continues to fall, there is strong cost support, but there is a lack of continuous driving force in the short term [1]. - Corn: With the release of reserve and imported grains, the supply has increased. The spot price is expected to be firm in the short term, and the futures price will oscillate within a range [1]. - Pulp: The 05 contract is expected to oscillate between 5400 - 5700 yuan/ton due to the tug-of-war between "strong supply" and "weak demand" [1]. - Logs: The spot price has shown signs of bottoming out and rebounding, and the downward space for the futures price is limited. However, the January overseas quotation has slightly declined, and there is a lack of upward driving factors. The price is expected to oscillate between 760 - 790 yuan/m³ [1]. Energy and Chemicals - Crude oil: OPEC+ has suspended production increases until the end of 2026. The uncertainty of the Russia-Ukraine peace agreement and US sanctions on Venezuelan oil exports have an impact [1]. - Fuel oil: Follows the trend of crude oil in the short term, with no prominent supply-demand contradictions [1]. - Asphalt: The "14th Five-Year Plan" rush demand is likely to be disproven, and the supply of Ma Rui crude oil is sufficient. The profit margin is high [1]. - Natural rubber: The raw material cost provides strong support, the futures-spot price difference has rebounded significantly, and the midstream inventory has increased substantially [1]. - BR rubber: The upward momentum has slowed down, the spot price has led the recovery of the basis, and the processing profit has narrowed. There are positive factors for future domestic butadiene exports [1]. - PTA: The PX market has experienced a sharp rise, and the PTA market is expected to remain tight in 2026. Domestic PTA maintains high production, and the gasoline spread provides support for aromatics [1]. - Ethylene glycol: Two MEG plants in Taiwan, China, plan to shut down next month. The price has rebounded rapidly due to supply-side news, and the downstream demand is slightly better than expected [1]. - Styrene: The Asian market is stable, with suppliers reluctant to cut prices due to losses and buyers pressing for lower prices due to weak downstream demand. The market is in a weak balance, and the upward momentum depends on overseas markets [1]. - Urea: The export sentiment has eased, and the upside space is limited due to insufficient domestic demand. There is support from anti-involution and the cost side [1]. - PE: There is a risk of rising crude oil prices due to geopolitical conflicts. The supply pressure is high, and the market expectation is weak due to planned production increases in 2026 [1]. - PP: The supply pressure is high, and the downstream improvement is less than expected. The cost is supported by high propylene monomer and crude oil prices [1]. - PVC: The global production is expected to be low in 2026, but the current supply pressure is rising. The demand is weak, and the implementation of differential electricity prices in the northwest may force the clearance of PVC production capacity [1]. - LPG: The January CP has risen unexpectedly, and the import cost provides strong support. Geopolitical conflicts have increased the risk premium. The inventory accumulation trend has slowed down, and the domestic port inventory is decreasing. The long-term demand for LPG is expected to increase [1]. Aviation - It is expected to peak in mid-January. Airlines are still cautious about trial resumptions [1].

甲醇聚烯烃早报 研究中心能化团队 2026/01/08 动力煤期 江苏现货 华南现货 鲁南折盘 面 西南折盘面 河北折盘 面 西北折盘 面 CFR中国 CFR东南 亚 进口利润 主力基差 801 2182 2188 2355 2460 2315 2400 256 320 8 -30 - 801 2210 2193 2345 2450 2315 2430 258 320 1 -25 - 801 2233 2205 2350 - 2315 2448 258 320 25 -2 - 801 2275 2248 2350 - 2345 2450 266 322 22 10 - 801 2285 2250 2350 - 2345 2443 - - - 0 - 日度变化 0 10 2 0 - 0 -7 - - - -10 - 内地见底，港口交易大去库，但需注意到大去库前提是MTO开工高，目前MTO利润一般，压制甲醇高度；委内船月 度预计2-3船，8 -10w月均，关注后续发酵，短期可能仍正常发货，另一边关注油的变化，甲醇现在高度有限是因为 其他下游不行，如果油把其他东 西带起来了可能打开上限。 日期 货 免责声明: 以上 ...

【冠通期货研究报告】 一、市场行情回顾 1，期货市场：纯碱主力高开高走，日内强势。120 分钟布林带三轨开口向 上，短期震荡偏强信号，上方压力重点关注周线的 60 均线附近，支撑关注日线 的 60/40 均线附近。成交量较昨日增 152.1 万手，持仓量较昨日减 15426 手；日 内最高 1277，最低 1188，收盘 1271，（较昨日结算价）涨 89 元/吨，涨幅 7.53%。 2，现货市场：价格趋稳。个别装置负荷小幅提升，检修预期较少，行业供 应高位徘徊。下游需求表现一般，多按需补货，低价成交为主。 3，基差：华北重碱现货价格 1250，基差-21 元/吨。 二、基本面数据 供应方面，截止 1 月 1 日，国内纯碱产量 69.71 万吨，环比-1.47 万吨，跌 幅 2.07%。其中，轻碱产量 32.61 万吨，环比-0.02 万吨；重碱产量 37.1 万吨， 环比-1.45 万吨。综合产能利用率 79.96%，上周 81.65%，环比-1.69%。其中氨 碱产能利用率 79.21%，环比-4.11%；联产产能利用率 72.77%，环比-1.08%。15 家年产能百万吨及以上规模企业整体产能利用率 8 ...

投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 2026/1/7 | 豆粕主力合约基差(张家港) | 涨跌 | 1月6日 | 指标 | == | ====== 16/17 | == | == | ===== 20/21 | == | == | == | 24/25 | 25/26 | 大连 | 2500 | 404 | -2 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2000 | 天津 | 374 | -12 | 1.500 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 1000 | 日照 | 324 | -2 | 500 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 43%豆粕现货基差 | 324 | 张家港 | -22 | -500 | (对主力合约) | 05/21 06/21 07/22 08/22 09/22 10/23 11/23 12/24 01/24 02/24 03/26 04/26 ...

2026 年 1 月 7 日 螺纹钢：市场情绪扰动，盘面宽幅震荡 热轧卷板：市场情绪扰动，盘面宽幅震荡 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 李亚飞 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021184 liyafei2@gtht.com 金园园（联系人） 期货从业资格号：F03134630 jinyuanyuan2@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 螺纹钢、热轧卷板基本面数据 | | | 昨日收盘价 （元/吨） | 涨跌 （元/吨） | 涨跌幅 （%） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | RB2605 HC2605 | 3,111 | -2 6 | -0.06 0.18 | | 期 货 | | 3,263 | | | | | | 昨日成交 （手） | 昨日持仓 （手） | 持仓变动 （手） | | | RB2605 | 841,618 | 1,562,948 | 14,597 | | | HC2605 | 439,684 | 1,274,085 | -20,441 | | | | 昨日价格 （元/吨） | 前日价格 （元/吨） | 涨跌 （元/吨） | | | 上海 | 3280 | ...

甲醇聚烯烃早报 研究中心能化团队 2026/01/07 甲 醇 日期 动力煤期 货 江苏现货 华南现货 鲁南折盘 面 西南折盘面 河北折盘 面 西北折盘 面 CFR中国 CFR东南 亚 进口利润 主力基差 盘面MTO 利润 2025/12/2 9 801 2150 2135 2345 2485 2355 2400 251 320 5 15 - 2025/12/3 0 801 2182 2188 2355 2460 2315 2400 256 320 8 -30 - 2025/12/3 1 801 2210 2193 2345 2450 2315 2430 258 320 1 -25 - 2026/01/0 5 801 2233 2205 2350 - 2315 2448 - 320 - -2 - 2026/01/0 6 801 - - - - 2345 2450 - - - 10 - 日度变化 0 - - - - 30 2 - - - 12 - 观点 内地见底，港口交易大去库，但需注意到大去库前提是MTO开工高，目前MTO利润一般，压制甲醇高度；委内船月 度预计2-3船，8 -10w月均，关注后续发酵，短期可 ...

聚烯烃日报 | 2026-01-06 供需改善有限，制约反弹空间 市场要闻与重要数据 价格与基差方面，L主力合约收盘价为6449元/吨（-23），PP主力合约收盘价为6330元/吨（-18），LL华北现货为6400 元/吨（+100），LL华东现货为6480元/吨（+30），PP华东现货为6190元/吨（+30），LL华北基差为-49元/吨（+123）， LL华东基差为31元/吨（+103）， PP华东基差为-140元/吨（+48）。 上游供应方面，PE开工率为83.2%（+0.6%），PP开工率为76.7%（-0.1%）。 策略 单边：LLDPE观望；PP观望；短期供需矛盾尚未改善但地缘局势升温或对成本端造成扰动，短期或延续震荡走势， 继续关注上游装置检修兑现情况。 跨期：无 跨品种：L05-PP05价差逢高做缩 生产利润方面，PE油制生产利润为64.5元/吨（+78.3），PP油制生产利润为-415.5元/吨（+78.3），PDH制PP生产利 润为-828.8元/吨（-35.7）。 进出口方面，LL进口利润为99.3元/吨（-2.5），PP进口利润为-351.2元/吨（+7.4），PP出口利润为-22.4 ...

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2026-01-06 现货升贴水坚挺 重要数据 现货方面：LME锌现货升水为-36.25美元/吨。SMM上海锌现货价较前一交易日变化650元/吨至23970元/吨，SMM 上海锌现货升贴水105元/吨；SMM广东锌现货价较前一交易日630元/吨至23870元/吨，广东锌现货升贴水5元/吨； 天津锌现货价较前一交易日680元/吨至23890元/吨，天津锌现货升贴水35元/吨。 期货方面：2026-01-05沪锌主力合约开于23435元/吨，收于23820元/吨，较前一交易日525元/吨，全天交易日成交 141147手，全天交易日持仓89942手，日内价格最高点达到23930元/吨，最低点达到23400元/吨。 库存方面：截至2026-01-05，SMM七地锌锭库存总量为11.48万吨，较上期变化0.87万吨。截止2026-01-05，LME 锌库存为105850吨，较上一交易日变化-475吨。 市场分析 单边：谨慎偏多。 套利：中性。 风险 1、海外矿预期外扰动。2、国内消费不及预期。3、流动性变化超预期。 2026年期货市场研究报告 第1页 请仔细阅读本报告最后一页的免责声明 节后第 ...