Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The disk oscillated and declined, with the basis at -588 (+457), the 5 - 6 month spread at 193 (+31), and 1300 lots of warehouse receipts (-1800). The cheapest deliverable was Shandong ether - post 6080 (+130). [1] - The conflict between the US and Iran shows no sign of cooling, the US terminal operation is at full capacity, and the inventory in April still has support, but the subsequent supply shortage may become more prominent. [1] - There may be measures to ensure people's livelihood in China, the PP - PG spread continues to widen, but the current valuation is not low, and there may be negative feedback from the terminal, so it is not advisable to chase the high. [1] - The valuation of the PG 5 - 6 month spread is not low, and short - term geopolitical news has a large impact, so it is recommended to wait and see. [1] Summary by Related Catalogs Daily Market - On March 31, the PG2605 contract closed at 6339 (-267) at 3 pm, with a 5 - 6 month spread of 139 (-31) and 0 warehouse receipts (-1300). The night session closed at 6501 (+162), with a 5 - 6 month spread of 166 (+27). [1] - Constrained by the successive decline of the related oil product market, the refinery's willingness to support the market is not strong. Shandong civil gas was at 6370 (-81), Shandong ether - post at 6510 (-40), Shandong propane at 6807 (-25), and Longkou Port propane at 7500 (+0). [1] Weekly Viewpoints - The basis was -588 (+457), the 5 - 6 month spread was 193 (+31), and there were 1300 lots of warehouse receipts (-1800). The cheapest deliverable was Shandong ether - post 6080 (+130). Shandong civil gas was at 6100 (+110), East China civil gas at 7065 (+876), and South China civil gas at 7205 (+905). [1] - The FEI month spread was 104 US dollars (-8), the oil - gas ratio oscillated, and the internal and external PG - FEI c2 reached 156 (+13). The South China CP propane arrival discount was 368 (-133), and the FOB discounts of AFEI, US Gulf, and Middle East propane were 45 (-5), 182 (-91), and 245 (+245) respectively. The FEI - MOPJ spread narrowed to -122 (-46). [1] - Propane import profit increased significantly. The spot profit of Chinese PDH - made propylene weakened to 734 (-611); the paper goods of PDH - made PP in East and South China oscillated significantly. [1] - The port inventory ratio was 36.08% (-0.24pct), the arrival volume was 52.8 tons (-18.27%), the factory storage capacity utilization was 24.92% (-1.13pct), and the external release was 51.78 tons (-3.36%). [1] - The PDH operating rate was 63.6% (-2.03pct); the utilization rate of alkylated oil production capacity was 38.6% (+0pct); the MTBE operating rate was 67.3% (+0.76pct); the MTBE export order was 0 tons (-4.5). [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - South American selling pressure continues to be released, and there is still downward pressure on soybean meal in the short term. The valuation of the soybean meal futures is relatively low. It is recommended to wait for the correction to layout long positions for far - month contracts. The driving factors for the later rise should focus on cost increase, weather speculation, and adjustment of the new US soybean balance sheet. In April, domestic soybean meal is expected to reduce inventory, and the 165 - 119 spread may fluctuate with the basis, but the overall trend is expected to maintain a reverse spread [6] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Spot Basis - The basis of 43% soybean meal spot (against the main contract) in Dalian is 383, in Tianjin is 323, in Zhangjiagang is 303, in Dongguan is 323 (down 20), in Zhanjiang is 263 (down 50), and in Fangcheng is 303. The basis of rapeseed meal spot in Guangdong is 5 (up 24). The M5 - 9 spread is - 66 (up 20), and the RM5 - 9 spread is - 59 (up 29) [4] Spread and Other Data - The spot spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal in Guangdong is 617, and the spread of the main contract is - 20. The US dollar - RMB exchange rate is 274.00, with a change of - 4 [5] Inventory Data - Inventory data includes China's port soybean inventory, national major oil mills' soybean inventory, feed enterprises' soybean meal inventory days, and national major oil mills' soybean meal inventory, showing data changes from 2020 - 2026 [6] 开机 and压榨情况 - The开机 rate and soybean压榨量 of national major oil mills are presented, showing data changes from 2020 - 2026 [6] Downstream Data - Downstream data shows the situation from 2019 - 2026 [6] International Situation - As of March 21, the Brazilian soybean harvest rate was 67.7%, compared with 59.2% last week, 76.4% in the same period last year, and a five - year average of 66.4%. The selling pressure in Brazilian production areas continues to be released, and the CNF premium of Brazilian soybeans has decreased recently. For US soybeans, pay attention to the results of the US soybean planting intention area report at the end of March. Brazilian shipping has resumed, concerns about delayed domestic arrivals have been alleviated, the supply of oil mills has recovered, and domestic soybean meal is expected to reduce inventory in April [6]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - The supply of EG is tightening, and the basis has risen rapidly. The closing price of the EG main contract was 5,359 yuan/ton (up 80 yuan/ton or 1.52% from the previous trading day), and the spot price in the East China market was 5,429 yuan/ton (up 279 yuan/ton or 5.42% from the previous trading day). The basis of EG East China spot was 0 yuan/ton (up 42 yuan/ton month-on-month). Due to the tense situation in Iran, the expectation of reduced imports and increased exports of EG has fermented, leading to a tightening supply and a rapid rise in the basis [1]. - In terms of production profit, the production profit of ethylene-based EG was -$255/ton (up $23/ton month-on-month), and the production profit of coal-based syngas EG was 425 yuan/ton (up 176 yuan/ton month-on-month) [1]. - In terms of inventory, the inventory at the main ports in East China was 1.075 million tons (up 36,000 tons month-on-month). The planned arrival volume at the main ports in East China this week is 78,000 tons, and the arrival volume at the secondary ports is 5,000 tons. The arrival volume is expected to decrease, and the inventory is expected to decline [1]. - On the supply side, the domestic ethylene glycol load has decreased due to concerns about the stability of upstream raw material supply. Overseas, the load of ethylene glycol plants has also decreased significantly. After the delivery of Middle Eastern cargoes in March, there will be a phased shortage of supplies from the Middle East in April, and the import volume is expected to drop significantly, making inventory reduction possible. On the demand side, the load of polyester and weaving has started to decline, the downstream price increase is weak, the inventory of filaments and staple fibers has begun to accumulate, and a negative feedback of production reduction has emerged. If the cost price remains high, downstream production cuts may increase further [2]. 3. Strategies - Unilateral: Cautiously go long on hedging at low prices. Inventory reduction at ports is expected to be realized in April. Recently, inquiries from some Asian countries to China have increased. With the import volume at a low level and exports, the reduction of ethylene glycol social inventory will accelerate significantly. Pay attention to the passage situation in the Strait of Hormuz and changes in ethylene glycol plants [3]. - Inter - period: Go long on the May - September spread due to supply influence [3]. - Inter - variety: None [3] 4. Summary by Directory Price and Basis - The closing price of the EG main contract was 5,359 yuan/ton (up 80 yuan/ton or 1.52% from the previous trading day), and the spot price in the East China market was 5,429 yuan/ton (up 279 yuan/ton or 5.42% from the previous trading day). The basis of EG East China spot was 0 yuan/ton (up 42 yuan/ton month-on-month) [1]. Production Profit and Operating Rate - The production profit of ethylene-based EG was -$255/ton (up $23/ton month-on-month), and the production profit of coal-based syngas EG was 425 yuan/ton (up 176 yuan/ton month-on-month) [1]. International Price Difference - Not provided in the given content Downstream Production, Sales, and Operating Rate - The load of polyester and weaving has started to decline, the downstream price increase is weak, the inventory of filaments and staple fibers has begun to accumulate, and a negative feedback of production reduction has emerged. If the cost price remains high, downstream production cuts may increase further [2]. Inventory Data - The inventory at the main ports in East China was 1.075 million tons (up 36,000 tons month-on-month). The planned arrival volume at the main ports in East China this week is 78,000 tons, and the arrival volume at the secondary ports is 5,000 tons. The arrival volume is expected to decrease, and the inventory is expected to decline [1].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints - As of March 21, the soybean harvest rate in Brazil was 67.7%, compared to 59.2% last week, 76.4% in the same period last year, and a five - year average of 66.4%. The selling pressure in Brazilian soybean production areas is continuously being released, and the freight rates have declined with the decline in crude oil, leading to a recent drop in the CNF premium of Brazilian soybeans. Trump's claim of a visit to China in mid - August has boosted the appearance of US soybeans. Attention should be paid to the results of the US soybean planting intention area report at the end of September [13]. - The shipping in Brazil has resumed, alleviating concerns about delayed domestic arrivals, and the supply of oil mills has recovered. There is an expectation of inventory reduction for domestic soybean meal in April. After the previous restocking, the downstream buying interest is currently weak, and the basis has weakened slightly [13]. - In the later stage, the arrival of soybeans in May is sufficient. The futures market reflects the delivery pressure, and the selling pressure in South America still needs further release. The valuation of the soybean meal futures is low. It is recommended to wait for a callback to arrange long positions in the far - month contracts. The driving factors for the later rise should focus on cost increase, weather speculation, and adjustments to the balance sheet of new US soybeans. In April, the domestic soybean meal inventory is decreasing, and the spread between M5 - RM5 may fluctuate with the basis, but the overall trend is expected to maintain a reverse spread [13]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Data Daily - The basis of the main soybean meal contract in different regions on March 27: Dalian was 383 (down 5), Tianjin was 323 (down 5), Rizhao was 263 (down 65), Zhangjiagang was 303 (down 25), Dongguan was 343 (down 5), Zhanjiang was 313 (up 15), and Fangcheng was 303 (down 5). The basis of rapeseed meal in Guangdong was - 19 (down 153) [4]. - The spot price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal in Guangdong was 896, and the spot price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal in the main contract was 622. The USD - CNY exchange rate was 6.8698, and the crushing profit on the futures market was 142 yuan/ton [5]. 3.2 Inventory Data - The inventory data of national major oil mills' soybeans, Chinese port soybeans, national major oil mills' soybean meal, and the number of days of soybean meal inventory in feed enterprises are presented in the form of line charts, but specific numerical data is not clearly given [6][7][9]. 3.3 Startup and Pressing Situation - The startup rate and soybean pressing volume of national major oil mills are presented in the form of line charts, but specific numerical data is not clearly given [10][11][12].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views of the Report - **Copper**: Overnight, both domestic and international copper prices fluctuated and weakened. The import window for domestic spot refined copper remained open, but import profitability declined. The US - Iran conflict and negotiations introduced uncertainties, and the market was still pricing in the macro - environment's variability. However, the macro - suppression has weakened marginally, and fundamental support is emerging. Copper prices are expected to enter a phase of "support at the bottom, lack of upward drive" and oscillate to find the bottom. It is recommended to shift from a previously cautious and bearish strategy to range - bound operations and gradually build long positions at key support levels, while paying attention to copper prices in the range of 90,000 - 100,000 yuan/ton [1]. - **Aluminum**: Overnight, alumina fluctuated weakly, while Shanghai aluminum and aluminum alloy fluctuated strongly. Overseas raw material cost support has gradually weakened. After the release of domestic production increments and the upcoming arrival of a large amount of imported alumina, inventory is under pressure. The market's core contradiction has shifted from high premiums due to overseas geopolitics to the weak reality of domestic inventory accumulation and slow - starting demand, as well as the logic of upward repair of the copper - aluminum ratio. If there are no unexpected geopolitical disturbances, aluminum prices are expected to adjust weakly in the short term. Attention should be paid to the approaching inflection point of inventory reduction and be vigilant against new geopolitical variables [1][2]. - **Nickel**: Overnight, LME nickel and Shanghai nickel declined. Nickel ore prices continued to strengthen, while primary nickel faced significant inventory pressure. On the demand side, stainless - steel inventory decreased week - on - week, and the supply of MHP was disrupted. Given the current strengthening cost side, there may be short - term long - trading opportunities based on the cost line, but attention should be paid to overseas geopolitics and market sentiment. There is also an expectation for supplementary quotas in July, which will also put pressure on nickel prices [2]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Copper**: Import window open but profitability down; US - Iran conflict and negotiations cause uncertainty; LME inventory down 350 tons to 359,825 tons, Comex inventory up 939 tons to 534,985 tons, SHFE copper warehouse receipts down 5,670 tons to 246,441 tons; downstream restocking willingness increased after price decline; strategy shift from cautious - bearish to range - bound operations [1]. - **Aluminum**: Alumina (AO2605) down 0.75% to 2,917 yuan/ton, Shanghai aluminum (AL2605) up 0.51% to 23,870 yuan/ton, aluminum alloy (AD2604) up 0.5% to 22,940 yuan/ton; overseas cost support weakens, domestic inventory pressure increases; short - term weak adjustment expected [1][2]. - **Nickel**: LME nickel down 1.04% to $17,165/ton, Shanghai nickel down 0.73% to 135,990 yuan/ton; LME inventory down 216 tons to 282,240 tons, SHFE warehouse receipts down 12 tons to 57,593 tons; nickel ore prices up, primary nickel inventory pressure; short - term long - trading opportunities based on cost line, but attention to geopolitics and sentiment [2]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - **Copper**: Flat - copper price down 260 yuan/ton to 95,315 yuan/ton; LME inventory down 350 tons, Comex inventory up 939 tons, SHFE warehouse receipts down 5,670 tons; social inventory (domestic + bonded area) down 27,000 tons to 584,000 tons; active contract import profit up 603.8 yuan/ton to 727.9 yuan/ton [3]. - **Lead**: Average price of 1 lead down 50 yuan/ton to 16,400 yuan/ton; LME inventory unchanged at 283,100 tons, SHFE inventory down 9,939 tons to 66,110 tons; active contract import profit up 226 yuan/ton to 855 yuan/ton [3]. - **Aluminum**: Wuxi aluminum price down 230 yuan/ton to 23,530 yuan/ton, Nanhai price down 270 yuan/ton to 23,440 yuan/ton; LME inventory down 3,675 tons to 423,075 tons, SHFE total inventory up 35,619 tons to 452,044 tons; social inventory of electrolytic aluminum down 2,000 tons to 1.337 million tons, alumina up 40,000 tons to 358,000 tons; active contract import loss up 392 yuan/ton to 3,911 yuan/ton [4]. - **Nickel**: Jinchuan nickel plate price up 1,050 yuan/ton to 142,050 yuan/ton; LME inventory down 216 tons to 282,240 tons, SHFE inventory down 20 tons to 63,661 tons; social inventory of nickel up 959 tons to 88,449 tons; active contract import profit up 4,051 yuan/ton to 1,471 yuan/ton [4]. - **Zinc**: Main settlement price up 0.1% to 22,985 yuan/ton; LME inventory unchanged at 115,650 tons, SHFE inventory up 793 tons to 6,268 tons; social inventory down 5,100 tons to 214,400 tons; active contract import loss up 220 yuan/ton to 2,873 yuan/ton [6]. - **Tin**: Main settlement price up 0.1% to 352,530 yuan/ton; LME inventory unchanged at 8,720 tons, SHFE inventory down 2,472 tons to 10,042 tons; active contract import loss down 10,077 yuan/ton to 16,699 yuan/ton [6]. 3.3 Chart Analysis - **Spot Premium**: Charts show the historical trends of spot premiums for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2026 [8][9][11][12]. - **SHFE Near - Far Month Spread**: Charts display the historical trends of the spread between the first and second - month contracts for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2026 [14][17][21]. - **LME Inventory**: Charts present the historical trends of LME inventories for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2026 [23][25][27]. - **SHFE Inventory**: Charts show the historical trends of SHFE inventories for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2026 [29][31][33]. - **Social Inventory**: Charts display the historical trends of social inventories for copper (including bonded areas), aluminum, nickel, zinc, stainless steel, and 300 - series from 2019 - 2026 [35][37][40]. - **Smelting Profit**: Charts present the historical trends of copper concentrate index, rough copper processing fee, aluminum smelting profit, nickel - iron smelting cost, zinc smelting profit, and stainless - steel 304 smelting profit margin from 2019 - 2026 [41][43][45].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **沪镍**: The external market has declined and continues to fluctuate around the 20 - day moving average. Supply is sufficient with increased production scheduling in March and rising domestic inventories. The nickel ore price is rising, and the RKAB policy in Indonesia is having an impact. The nickel - iron price is weakly stable, stainless steel inventory is slightly decreasing, and new - energy vehicle sales data is in line with expectations but with a large month - on - month decline in the off - season. The overall view is bearish, but the basis is bullish, and the main position is net long with an increase in long positions. The conclusion is that SHFE Nickel 2605 will fluctuate around the 20 - day moving average [2]. - **不锈钢**: The spot stainless - steel price remains flat. The nickel ore price is firm, the nickel - iron price is weakly stable, and the cost line provides strong support. The stainless - steel inventory is slightly decreasing, and the demand is weak. The overall view is neutral, the basis is bullish, and the price is above the 20 - day moving average with an upward - sloping 20 - day moving average. The conclusion is that Stainless Steel 2605 will have a wide - range fluctuation around the 20 - day moving average [4]. 3. Summary by Directory Nickel and Stainless - Steel Price Overview - **Futures Prices**: On March 26, the SHFE nickel main contract was at 135,860, down 270 from March 25; the LME nickel was at 17,165, down 180; the stainless - steel main contract was at 14,390, down 100. The nickel index was at 135,950, down 100, and the cold - rolled index was at 13,837, down 153 [10]. - **Spot Prices**: SMM1 electrolytic nickel was at 139,350 on March 26, up 1550; 1 Jinchuan nickel was at 142,050, up 1050; 1 imported nickel was at 136,450, up 1750; nickel beans were at 139,100, up 1800. Cold - rolled 304*2B prices in different regions remained unchanged [10]. Nickel Warehouse Receipts and Inventories - **As of March 20**: The SHFE nickel inventory was 63,661 tons, with the futures inventory at 56,690 tons. The futures inventory increased by 228 tons, and the overall inventory decreased by 20 tons [12]. - **On March 26**: LME nickel inventory was 282,240, down 216; SHFE nickel warehouse receipts were 57,593, down 12; the total inventory was 339,833, down 228 [13]. Stainless - Steel Warehouse Receipts and Inventories - **As of March 20**: Wuxi inventory was 598,700 tons, Foshan inventory was 380,600 tons, and the national inventory was 1,127,400 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 15,000 tons. The 300 - series inventory was 693,700 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 13,400 tons [17]. - **On March 26**: The stainless - steel warehouse receipts were 45,676, an increase of 2139 from March 25 [18]. Nickel Ore and Nickel - Iron Prices - **Nickel Ore**: On March 26, the CIF price of red - soil nickel ore with Ni1.5% was 79.5 dollars/wet ton, down 0.5; Ni0.9% was 35 dollars/wet ton, unchanged. The shipping costs from the Philippines to Lianyungang and Tianjin Port decreased [21]. - **Nickel - Iron**: The price of high - nickel wet ton (8 - 12) was 1085.52 yuan/nickel point, up 0.15; the price of low - nickel wet ton (below 2) was 3650 yuan/ton, unchanged [21]. Stainless - Steel Production Cost - The traditional cost was 14,146, the scrap - steel production cost was 14,086, and the low - nickel + pure - nickel production cost was 17,977 [23]. Nickel Import Cost The import price was converted to 134,277 yuan/ton [25].

Group 1: Price Performance - London Gold's latest price is 4456.45, with a change of -108.10 [1] - London Silver's latest price is 67.29, with a change of -5.88 [1] - London Platinum's latest price is 1950.00, with a change of 58.00 [1] - London Palladium's latest price is 1434.00, with a change of 41.00 [1] - WTI Crude's latest price is 94.48, with a change of 4.16 [1] - LME Copper's latest price is 12201.00, with a change of -28.00 [1] Group 2: Trading Data - COMEX Silver's latest inventory is 10218.98, with a change of -9.13 [2] - SHFE Silver's latest inventory is 370.30, with a change of -5.79 [2] - Gold ETF's latest holding is 1052.70, with a change of 0.28 [2] - Silver ETF's latest holding is 15409.46, with a change of -104.21 [2] - SGE Silver's latest inventory is 371.99, with a change of 0.00 [2] - SGE Gold's latest deferred fee payment direction is 1, with a change of 0.00 [2] - SGE Silver's latest deferred fee payment direction is 2, with a change of 0.00 [2] Group 3: Other Data - US Dollar Index's latest value is 99.92, with a change of 0.28 [11] - EUR/USD's latest value is 1.15, with a change of -0.00 [11] - GBP/USD's latest value is 1.33, with a change of -0.00 [11] - USD/JPY's latest value is 159.75, with a change of 0.28 [11] - US 10 - year TIPS's latest value is 2.02, with a change of 0.00 [11]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - As of March 21, Brazil's soybean harvest rate was 67.7%, lower than last week's 69.2% and last year's 76.4%, but higher than the five - year average of 66.4%. The selling pressure in Brazilian production areas continues to be released, freight rates have declined with crude oil, and the CXF premium of Brazilian soybeans has recently decreased [9]. - Brazilian shipments have resumed, alleviating concerns about delayed arrivals in China. Oil mill supply has recovered, and there is an expectation of inventory reduction for domestic soybean meal in April. After pre - stocking, downstream buying interest is weak, and the basis has weakened slightly [9]. - In the later period, soybean arrivals in May are sufficient, and the futures market reflects delivery pressure. South American selling pressure still needs further release, and the soybean meal futures valuation is low. It is recommended to wait for a pullback to layout long positions in distant contracts. The driving factors for later price increases include cost increase, weather speculation, and adjustment of the new US soybean balance sheet [9]. - In April, domestic soybean meal inventory will be reduced. The spread between M05 and M09 may fluctuate with the basis, but the overall trend is expected to maintain a reverse spread [9]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Data Daily - The basis of the main soybean meal contract in Zhangjiagang on March 25 was 348, with a change of 9. The basis of 43% soybean meal spot in different regions such as Tianjin, Rizhao, Zhangjiagang, Dongguan, Zhanjiang, and Fangcheng also had different values and changes. The basis of rapeseed meal spot in Guangdong was 65, with a change of 50 [4]. 3.2 Inventory Data - Information about inventory data includes the inventory of national major oil mills' soybeans, Chinese port soybeans, and the inventory days of feed enterprises' soybean meal, but specific numerical data is presented in a graphical form in the report [11][12]. 3.3开机和压榨情况 (Operation and Pressing Situation) - Information about the operation rate of national major oil mills and the soybean pressing volume is presented in a graphical form in the report, showing data from 2020 - 2026 [7][8]. 3.4 Downstream Transaction Volume - Information about the downstream transaction volume and the downstream提货量 (delivery volume) of national major oil mills is presented in a graphical form in the report, covering data from 2019 - 2026 [8]. 3.5 Spread Data - The spot spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal in Guangdong was 593, with a change of - 3. The futures spread between the main contracts of soybean meal and rapeseed meal is also presented in the report, along with the premium - continuous month situation and the exchange rate of the US dollar against the RMB, and the futures crushing profit [11].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a short - term view that hot - rolled coils are expected to maintain a volatile and slightly stronger operation [6] Core View - Hot - rolled coils showed a volatile and slightly weaker trend on Wednesday. Influenced by the short - term weakness of raw materials, the lower support is near the 60 - day moving average. From the perspective of the moving average, it is strengthening in the medium term, and attention should be paid to the previous pressure platform. Fundamentally, it is currently in a pattern of increasing supply and demand, high inventory, and cost support. The apparent demand has rebounded significantly recently, and with the arrival of the seasonal peak season, the overall output has shrunk, which supports the price. However, the high inventory limits the upside space to a certain extent. Now it has started to destock, and attention should be paid to the subsequent destocking progress [6] Summary by Directory Market行情回顾 - **Futures price**: The trading volume of the main hot - rolled coil futures contract on Wednesday was 302,330 lots, a decrease compared to the previous trading day. The short - term moving average fell to around the 5 - day moving average of 3313, the medium - term moving average was at 30 - day moving average of 3257, and it was running above the 60 - day moving average of 3273. The position decreased by 21,168 lots [1] - **Spot price**: The price of hot - rolled coils in Shanghai, a mainstream area, was reported at 3300 yuan/ton [2] - **Basis**: The basis between futures and spot was - 13 yuan [3] Fundamental Data - **Supply side**: The actual weekly output was 300.21 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 4.95 million tons and a year - on - year decrease of 24.12 million tons. The steel mill's resumption of production was moderate, and the supply contraction was obvious year - on - year, so the supply side put limited pressure on prices [4] - **Demand side**: The apparent consumption was 310.51 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 15.15 million tons and a year - on - year decrease of 20.14 million tons. The resumption of work in the manufacturing industry drove the rebound of apparent demand, but it was still weak year - on - year. The intensity of demand recovery was the core variable in the follow - up [4] - **Inventory side**: The social inventory was 376.33 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 5.98 million tons and a year - on - year increase of 52.28 million tons. The social inventory was de - stocked for the first time on a weekly basis, but the absolute amount was still much higher than last year. The steel mill inventory was 84.96 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 4.32 million tons, and the pressure was relieved. The total inventory was 461.29 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 10.3 million tons and a year - on - year increase of 51.39 million tons. It ended the inventory accumulation and entered the de - stocking stage, but the total inventory was still at a high level. Entering the weekly de - stocking for the first time verified the start of demand, but the absolute amount of social inventory and the inventory - to - sales ratio were still at a high level, suppressing the upward space of prices [4] - **Policy side**: On March 5, 2026, the National Two Sessions were held. The government work report proposed to issue 1.3 trillion yuan of ultra - long - term special treasury bonds and arrange 4.4 trillion yuan of special bonds to strengthen the support for infrastructure and "two new" projects, boosting the medium - and long - term confidence of the market. However, the current manufacturing PMI was still in the contraction range, and there was no substantial improvement in downstream orders. It still took time for the policy to be transmitted to the hot - rolled coil demand side, and it was difficult to reverse the high - inventory pattern in the short term [5] Market Driving Factor Analysis - **Bullish factors**: Cost support, supply contraction, demand resilience, policy support ("15th Five - Year Plan", infrastructure investment), and strengthening of raw materials [6] - **Bearish factors**: Slow realization of demand, price suppression due to inventory accumulation, and increased macro - disturbances [6]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - No relevant information provided Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Basis and Spread - The basis in Shandong (+80) (non-Jingbo) changed from 32 on 2/24 to 29 on 3/24, with a daily change of 320 [3] - The basis in East China (Zhenjiang Warehouse) changed from -18 on 2/24 to 49 on 3/24, with a daily change of 260 [3] - The basis in South China (Foshan Warehouse) changed from -68 on 2/24 to 49 on 3/24, with a daily change of 260 [3] - The spreads between contracts 04 - 05, 04 - 06, and 06 - 09 also had significant changes from 2/24 to 3/24 [3] 2. Futures Contract Data - The price of the BU main contract changed from 3348 on 2/24 to 4401 on 3/24, with a daily change of -260 [3] - The trading volume changed from 257,381 on 2/24 to 1,275,134 on 3/24, with a daily change of 218,965 [3] - The open interest changed from 332,156 on 2/24 to 348,738 on 3/24, with a daily change of -29,028 [3] - The warehouse receipts remained at 36,100 from 3/17 to 3/24 [3] 3. Crude Oil and Asphalt Prices - The price of Brent crude oil changed from 71.4 on 2/24 to 101.2 on 3/24, with a daily change of -8.2 [3] - The prices of asphalt from different sources (Jingbo, Shandong non-Jingbo, Zhenjiang Warehouse, Foshan Warehouse) also changed from 2/24 to 3/24 [3] 4. Profit - The asphalt MRE profit changed from 257 on 2/24 to -136 on 3/24, with a daily change of 440 [3]