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有色商品日报-20251010
Guang Da Qi Huo· 2025-10-10 05:21
有色商品日报 有色商品日报(2025 年 10 月 10 日) 一、研究观点 有色商品日报 | | 系加工费持稳,6/8 系加工费持稳,低碳铝杆下调 87 元/吨。节内正值美政府停摆,多 | | --- | --- | | | 项重要数据公布时间持续延后,导致今年国庆期间外盘宏观影响有所弱化,节后沪铝 | | | 开盘补涨。氧化铝市场消息动态偏少,节后随着外矿价格走低,新增产能以及部分检修 | | | 产能回归,下游备货节奏放缓,延续过剩格局。电解铝结束短期补涨后,在金九消费整 | | | 体稍显疲弱,市场已将旺季预期全面押注向银十。节内铝锭及铝棒合计累库 8.14 万吨, | | | 重点关注节后库消走势,若后续去库不及预期,警惕价格出现预期修正。 | | | 隔夜 LME 镍涨 0.62%报 15485 美元/吨,沪镍涨 0.41%报 123620 元/吨。库存方面,LME | | | 库存增加 4260 吨至 234892 吨;国内 SHFE 仓单减少 42 吨至 24775 吨。升贴水来看, | | | LME0-3 月升贴水维持负数;进口镍升贴水维持 325 元/吨。消息面,印尼矿业部发布 | | ...
有色商品日报-20250925
Guang Da Qi Huo· 2025-09-25 05:31
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Copper**: Overnight, both domestic and international copper prices rose significantly, with domestic spot imports in a loss situation. The strong real - estate demand in the US exceeded market expectations, showing economic resilience. The Grasberg mine accident in Indonesia may have a long - term impact on copper supply, and it is expected to drive a significant increase in the average copper price in the fourth quarter. Investors are advised to follow the trend and mainly go long on dips [1]. - **Aluminum**: Alumina, Shanghai aluminum, and aluminum alloy all showed a slightly stronger trend. However, domestic mines have not resumed production, and ore shipments have decreased, resulting in a continuous decline in ore inventory. Alumina is generally bearish but has basically bottomed out. The aluminum ingot has not yet reached an actual de - stocking inflection point. The subsequent increase in aluminum prices depends on further improvement in demand [1][2]. - **Nickel**: The bottom of the nickel price may rise slightly due to macro factors, supply - side disturbances, and the strengthening of raw material prices, but inventory remains a resistance to the price increase [2][3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views Copper - **Macro**: US new home sales in August reached an annualized 800,000 units, much higher than the expected 650,000 units, with a month - on - month increase of 20.5%. The US Treasury Secretary expressed dissatisfaction with the Fed Chairman and called for a 100 - 150 basis - point interest rate cut by the end of the year [1]. - **Inventory**: LME copper inventory decreased by 144,775 tons to 200 tons, Comex inventory decreased by 142 tons to 288,695 tons, SHFE copper warehouse receipts decreased by 308 tons to 27,419 tons, and BC copper remained at 6,445 tons [1]. - **Demand**: Downstream buyers are afraid of high copper prices and macro uncertainties, with weak procurement enthusiasm, and domestic social inventory de - stocking is not ideal [1]. - **Supply**: The Grasberg mine accident in Indonesia is expected to reduce copper and gold production by about 35% (about 270,000 tons) in 2026 compared to previous expectations, and sales in the fourth quarter of 2025 will also be greatly affected [1]. Aluminum - **Futures**: Alumina, Shanghai aluminum, and aluminum alloy all showed a slightly stronger trend. Overnight, AO2601 closed at 2,916 yuan/ton, up 0.76%; AL2510 closed at 20,805 yuan/ton, up 0.58%; AD2511 closed at 20,435 yuan/ton, up 0.59% [1][2]. - **Spot**: SMM alumina price dropped to 3,008 yuan/ton, aluminum ingot spot discount was 10 yuan/ton to par, and the Foshan A00 aluminum price dropped to 20,620 yuan/ton [2]. - **Supply and Demand**: Domestic mines have not resumed production, and ore shipments have decreased, resulting in a continuous decline in ore inventory. Alumina is generally bearish but has basically bottomed out. The aluminum ingot has not yet reached an actual de - stocking inflection point, and downstream procurement willingness has declined [2]. Nickel - **Futures**: LME nickel rose 0.62% to 15,435 US dollars/ton, and Shanghai nickel rose 0.88% to 122,750 yuan/ton [2]. - **Inventory**: LME nickel inventory increased by 132 tons to 120,586 tons, and domestic SHFE warehouse receipts decreased by 493 tons to 24,971 tons [2]. - **Supply and Demand**: The sanctions on 39 nickel - mining enterprises in Indonesia have little impact on overall supply. In the stainless - steel sector, cost support has strengthened, but supply has increased. In the new - energy sector, ternary demand has weakened slightly in September, and MHP supply may be relatively tight [2]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - **Copper**: The price of flat - copper rose by 30 yuan/ton, and the flat - copper premium decreased by 5 yuan/ton. SHFE copper warehouse receipts decreased by 308 tons, and the total inventory increased by 11,760 tons [4]. - **Lead**: The average price of 1 lead decreased by 40 yuan/ton, and SHFE lead warehouse receipts decreased by 3,450 tons, with a weekly inventory decrease of 9,229 tons [4]. - **Aluminum**: The Wuxi aluminum price rose by 10 yuan/ton, and the spot premium increased by 10 yuan/ton. SHFE aluminum warehouse receipts decreased by 1,224 tons, and the total inventory decreased by 765 tons [5]. - **Nickel**: The price of Jinchuan nickel increased by 500 yuan/ton, and SHFE nickel warehouse receipts decreased by 493 tons, with a weekly inventory increase of 2,334 tons [5]. - **Zinc**: The main - contract settlement price decreased by 0.2%, and the LME0 - 3 premium decreased by 1.75 US dollars/ton. SHFE zinc inventory increased by 793 tons, and social inventory decreased by 0.37 million tons [7]. - **Tin**: The main - contract settlement price increased by 0.5%, and the LME0 - 3 premium increased by 17 US dollars/ton. SHFE tin inventory decreased by 909 tons [7]. 3.3 Chart Analysis - **Spot Premium**: The report provides charts of spot premiums for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [9][11][14]. - **SHFE Near - Far Month Spread**: Charts of the spread between the first - and second - month contracts for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2020 - 2025 are presented [17][22]. - **LME Inventory**: Charts of LME inventory for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 are shown [25][27][29]. - **SHFE Inventory**: Charts of SHFE inventory for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 are provided [31][33][35]. - **Social Inventory**: Charts of social inventory for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, stainless - steel, and 300 - series stainless - steel from 2019 - 2025 are presented [37][39][41]. - **Smelting Profit**: Charts of copper concentrate index, rough - copper processing fee, aluminum smelting profit, nickel - iron smelting cost, zinc smelting profit, and stainless - steel 304 smelting profit rate from 2019 - 2025 are shown [43][45][49]. 3.4有色金属团队介绍 - **Zhan Dapeng**: He holds a master's degree in science and is currently the director of non - ferrous research at Everbright Futures Research Institute. He has more than ten years of experience in commodity research and has won many industry awards [52]. - **Wang Heng**: He holds a master's degree in finance from the University of Adelaide, Australia, and is mainly responsible for the research on aluminum and silicon [52]. - **Zhu Xi**: She holds a master's degree in science from the University of Warwick, UK, and focuses on the research of lithium and nickel [53].
有色金属日报-20250924
Guo Tou Qi Huo· 2025-09-24 13:00
| | 操作评级 | 2025年09月24日 | | --- | --- | --- | | 铜 | な女女 | 肖静 首席分析师 | | | | F3047773 Z0014087 | | 铝 | ななな | 刘冬博 高级分析师 | | 氧化铝 | な☆☆ | F3062795 Z0015311 | | 铸造铝合金 文文文 | | | | 锌 | ☆☆☆ | 吴江 高级分析师 | | 铝 | な女女 | F3085524 Z0016394 | | | | 张秀睿 中级分析师 | | 镇及不锈钢 ☆☆☆ | | F03099436 Z0021022 | | 锡 | なな女 | 孙芳芳 中级分析师 | | 碳酸锂 | ななな | F03111330 Z0018905 | | 工业培 | ななな | | | 多晶硅 | ☆☆☆ | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 【铜】 周三沪铜减仓窄幅震荡,现铜报80045元,上海铜升水维持55元。隔夜欧美9月制造业表现一般。节前有一定备 货提振,但需持续关注涉铜消费指标压力,本月社库仍为净累库。观望。 ( ...
有色日内震荡运行:有色日报-20250922
Bao Cheng Qi Huo· 2025-09-22 09:02
Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Views - **Copper**: On Friday night, Shanghai copper opened high and went higher. Today, copper prices maintained a strong shock, with a slight decline in open interest. After the Fed's September interest rate cut last week, short - term long - position closing was over. High copper prices previously led to strong downstream wait - and - see sentiment. The decline in copper prices and pre - holiday stocking demand boosted industrial restocking willingness, supporting copper prices. Technically, pay attention to the long - short game at the 80,000 mark [4]. - **Aluminum**: Today, aluminum prices fluctuated, with open interest continuously declining. After the Fed's September interest rate cut last week, short - term long - position closing was over. In September, aluminum prices generally remained high, and downstream restocking willingness was weak. As futures prices declined, the accumulation of electrolytic aluminum social inventory slowed down. Technically, Shanghai aluminum pulled back after hitting a high in March, facing significant technical pressure. Pay attention to the support of the 60 - day moving average [5]. - **Nickel**: Today, Shanghai nickel rose and then fell, with open interest continuously rising. In the morning, the main futures price reached the 122,000 mark. After the Fed's September interest rate cut last week, short - term long - position closing was over. On the industrial side, disruptions at the Indonesian mine end were positive for nickel prices, while the continuous increase in domestic nickel ore port inventory and SHFE nickel inventory was negative for nickel prices. Technically, nickel prices were still in the shock range. Pay attention to the 120,000 - 123,000 range [6]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Industry Dynamics Copper - In August 2025, China's copper enameled wire exports were 12,806 tons, a year - on - year increase of 25.82% and a month - on - month increase of 2.09%. From January to August, China's copper enameled wire exports totaled 94,935.7 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 25.41% [8]. - In August 2025, China's copper clad laminate (HS code: 74102110) imports were 3,417.14 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 18.12% and a month - on - month increase of 5.68%. From January to August, the cumulative imports were 26,439.07 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.23%. In August, exports were 8,377.20 tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.22% and a month - on - month increase of 15.87%. From January to August, the cumulative exports were 59,867.55 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 8.85% [8]. Aluminum - In August 2025, the imports of unwrought aluminum alloy were 71,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 16.7% and a month - on - month increase of 2.6%. From January to August, the cumulative imports were 682,500 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 14.2%. In August, the exports were 29,100 tons, a year - on - year increase of 28.3% and a month - on - month increase of 16.7%. From January to August, the cumulative exports were 174,300 tons, a year - on - year increase of 10.7% [9]. - In August 2025, the exports of domestic aluminum profiles were 84,300 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.17% and a year - on - year decrease of 14.94% [9]. Nickel - On September 22, the price of SMM1 electrolytic nickel was 121,300 - 124,100 yuan/ton, with an average price of 122,700 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The mainstream spot premium quotation range of Jinchuan 1 electrolytic nickel was 2,300 - 2,400 yuan/ton, with an average premium of 2,350 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day. The spot premium and discount quotation range of domestic mainstream brand electrowon nickel was - 100 - 200 yuan/ton [10]. 2. Relevant Charts Copper - Charts include copper basis, electrolytic copper domestic visible inventory (social inventory + bonded area inventory), LME copper cancelled warrant ratio, overseas copper exchange inventory, and SHFE warrant inventory [11][13][14] Aluminum - Charts include aluminum basis, aluminum monthly spread, electrolytic aluminum domestic social inventory, electrolytic aluminum overseas exchange inventory (LME + COMEX), alumina inventory, and aluminum rod inventory [22][24][26] Nickel - Charts include nickel basis, LME nickel inventory and cancelled warrant ratio, LME nickel trend, SHFE nickel monthly spread, SHFE inventory, and nickel ore port inventory [34][37][38]
有色企稳回升
Bao Cheng Qi Huo· 2025-09-19 10:12
Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Copper**: Copper prices stabilized and rebounded today, with the decline in open interest slowing. The Fed's interest rate cut has reduced short - term disturbances from long - position liquidation. The industry is entering the peak season, and the decline in copper prices may increase downstream replenishment willingness. Technically, pay attention to the long - short game at the 80,000 level [5]. - **Aluminum**: Aluminum prices rose slightly in the morning but fell continuously during the day, with open interest continuously decreasing. After the Fed's interest rate cut, previous long - positions were continuously liquidated. Downstream replenishment willingness is weak, and electrolytic aluminum social inventory has been accumulating this week. Technically, Shanghai aluminum faced significant technical pressure after hitting a high in March and then falling back [6]. - **Nickel**: Shanghai nickel rose in the morning, with the main contract price approaching the 122,000 level, and fluctuated during the day, with open interest continuously decreasing. The Fed's interest rate cut has reduced short - term disturbances from long - position liquidation. Domestically, nickel ore port inventory and SHFE nickel inventory are continuously rising, which is negative for nickel prices. Technically, nickel prices rebounded with a reduction in positions, indicating strong short - covering willingness. As macro disturbances decline, the futures price is expected to fluctuate [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Industry Dynamics - **Copper**: On September 16, 2025, the construction mobilization meeting of the ±800 kV UHV DC transmission project from Southeast Tibet to the Guangdong - Hong Kong - Macao Greater Bay Area was held. The project, with a total investment of about 53.2 billion yuan, will be fully operational in 2029, and will directly boost copper cable demand. This week, copper cable downstream industries' demand was weak due to high copper prices. State Grid orders remained flat, automotive wiring harness orders were stable, and construction and two - grid orders are expected to be released in October. High copper prices have also weakened enterprises' procurement willingness, leading to a decrease in raw material inventory and an increase in sample enterprises' finished - product inventory ratio. The enameled wire industry showed a slight increase in the operating rate but faced pressure on new orders, with new orders decreasing by 1.07 percentage points month - on - month [9][10]. - **Nickel**: On September 19, the price of SMM 1 electrolytic nickel was 121,400 - 124,100 yuan/ton, with an average price of 122,750 yuan/ton, a 50 - yuan increase from the previous trading day. The average premium of Jinchuan 1 electrolytic nickel was 2,350 yuan/ton, a 150 - yuan increase from the previous trading day. The spot premium of domestic mainstream brand electrowon nickel was in the range of - 100 - 200 yuan/ton [11]. 3.2 Relevant Charts - **Copper**: The report presents charts on copper basis, copper monthly spread, electrolytic copper domestic explicit inventory, overseas copper exchange inventory, LME copper cancelled warrant ratio, and SHFE warrant inventory [12][14][15]. - **Aluminum**: There are charts on aluminum basis, aluminum monthly spread, electrolytic aluminum domestic social inventory, electrolytic aluminum overseas exchange inventory, alumina inventory, and aluminum rod inventory [24][26][28]. - **Nickel**: The charts include nickel basis, nickel monthly spread, LME inventory, SHFE inventory, LME nickel trend, and nickel ore port inventory [36][38][40].
有色金属日报-20250918
Guo Tou Qi Huo· 2025-09-18 09:58
Report Industry Investment Ratings - Copper: No clear rating provided [1] - Aluminum: ★☆☆ (One star, indicating a bullish bias but limited trading opportunities) [1] - Alumina: No clear rating provided [1] - Cast Aluminum Alloy: No clear rating provided [1] - Zinc: No clear rating provided [3] - Lead and Stainless Steel: No clear rating provided [1] - Tin: No clear rating provided [1] - Lithium Carbonate: No clear rating provided [1] - Industrial Silicon: No clear rating provided [9] - Polysilicon: No clear rating provided [10] Core Viewpoints - The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points, and the market sentiment has changed. Different metals have different price trends and trading strategies based on their fundamentals [1][3] - The supply and demand fundamentals of various metals are different, which affect their price trends and investment opportunities [2][5] Summary by Metal Copper - Thursday saw a reduction in positions in Shanghai copper, approaching the support of medium - and long - term moving averages. After the Fed's interest rate cut, the previous bullish sentiment cooled. The spot copper price was 80,600 yuan, and the Shanghai copper premium shrank to 60 yuan. The social inventory decreased by 5,300 tons to 148,900 tons this week. The copper price may fall back to the previous support range of 79,000 - 79,500 yuan. It is recommended to wait and see [1] Aluminum & Alumina & Aluminum Alloy - Shanghai aluminum declined today, and the spot discounts in various regions slightly narrowed. The downstream开工 continued to seasonally recover, but the social inventory of aluminum ingots has not yet shown an inflection point, increasing slightly by 100 tons compared to Monday. The industry drive is currently weak, and Shanghai aluminum faces resistance at the March high. Cast aluminum alloy followed the decline of Shanghai aluminum, with the Baotai spot price dropping by 100 yuan to 20,400 yuan. The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, and the expected adjustment of the tax policy increases enterprise costs, so it may show stronger resilience compared to Shanghai aluminum. The operating capacity of alumina exceeded 97 million tons, hitting a new high, and the industry inventory continued to rise, with warehouse receipts exceeding 150,000 tons. The supply surplus is obvious, and the spot index in various regions continued to be adjusted down by 5 - 10 yuan. There is an expectation of mine复产 in Guinea, and the strike has not affected production for the time being. The cash cost of production capacity in Shanxi and Henan still has a profit, and the support for alumina is temporarily seen around the June low of 2,830 yuan [2] Zinc - After the Fed's expected 25 - basis - point interest rate cut, zinc returned to fundamental trading. Under the pressure of inventory accumulation, Shanghai zinc increased positions and declined, testing the 22,000 - yuan integer mark again. The de - stocking pace of LME zinc slowed down, and the total inventory was still less than 50,000 tons. The weak domestic and strong overseas fundamentals led to an extreme price difference between the domestic and foreign markets. After the zinc ingot export window was approaching to open, the price difference began to converge. The increase in global mine supply continued to be realized, and the overall supply of zinc ingots was sufficient. The general direction of short - selling on rallies remained unchanged. Given the differentiation of domestic and foreign fundamentals, it is necessary to focus on the change in LME zinc inventory. If there is obvious warehousing action in the overseas market, Shanghai zinc is expected to break below the 22,000 - yuan level; if the LME zinc inventory remains at a low level, Shanghai zinc is expected to consolidate around 22,000 yuan/ton [3] Lead - Due to the low operating rate of secondary lead smelters and the maintenance of primary lead smelters in the early stage, and the maintenance plan of medium - and large - scale smelters in late September, coupled with the downstream's stockpiling for the National Day holiday, the supply of lead ingots tightened. The SMM social inventory of lead decreased to 67,600 tons. The fundamentals of lead improved in the short term. Shanghai lead continued its independent trend during the day, with bulls increasing positions, and there is still some upside potential for Shanghai lead. However, after the lead price rebounded, the SMM 1 lead had a discount of 145 yuan/ton to the near - month contract, the profit of secondary lead was restored, the price difference between refined and scrap lead widened to 100 yuan/ton, the expectation of secondary lead smelters resuming production strengthened, and the primary lead smelters that had undergone maintenance earlier gradually resumed production. The resistance for the lead price rebound is seen at 17,300 yuan/ton [5] Nickel and Stainless Steel - After the interest rate cut, in the spot market, the premium of Jinchuan nickel was 2,300 yuan, the premium of imported nickel was 300 yuan, and the premium of electrowon nickel was 50 yuan. The price of high - nickel ferro - nickel was 956 yuan per nickel point. Recently, the upstream price support rebounded slightly and was further hyped up due to the political situation, pushing up the price level of the nickel industry chain. The pure nickel inventory increased by 1,000 tons to 41,000 tons, the nickel - iron inventory decreased by 4,000 tons to 29,200 tons, and the stainless - steel inventory decreased by 16,000 tons to 919,000 tons. Shanghai nickel returned to the downward trend [6] Tin - Shanghai tin closed in the negative territory near the MA60 moving average, and the spot tin price was adjusted down to 270,200 yuan. Attention should be paid to the performance of the overseas market at $34,000. The spot discount of LME 0 - 3 months has widened to $167. Wait for the specific import and export data of tin. If Shanghai tin effectively breaks below the 60 - day moving average, it means weak consumption. It is recommended to wait and see [7] Lithium Carbonate - The lithium price fluctuated weakly, and the market trading was dull. The total market inventory decreased by 1,000 tons to 138,500 tons, the smelter inventory decreased by 3,200 tons to 36,000 tons, and the downstream inventory increased by 3,000 tons to 58,000 tons. After the rapid price decline, the downstream took the opportunity to purchase. The inventory of traders decreased by 1,000 tons to 44,000 tons. The middle - stream sector became cautious, and the transfer of cargo rights was mainly due to the upstream selling to the downstream. The latest quotation of Australian ore was $810, and the ore - end quotation rebounded slightly, matching the lithium - price fluctuations. The low - level support of the lithium - carbonate futures price emerged, but the selling actions in the industry chain were basically completed. After the interest rate cut, the overall trend was weak [8] Industrial Silicon - The futures price of industrial silicon rose and then fell, closing below 9,000 yuan/ton. Recently, there has been an expectation of eliminating backward furnace types. From the weekly operating situation, the production reduction of downstream silicone and polysilicon was limited. The monthly surplus risk mainly came from the increase in the operating rate in the Xinjiang production area and the maintenance of the existing operating level in the Sichuan and Yunnan production areas. In general, the room for fundamental improvement was limited, and it was difficult to form a strong upward - driving force. More positive factors were needed to effectively break through the 9,000 - yuan/ton mark [9] Polysilicon - The polysilicon futures fluctuated and closed at 53,200 yuan/ton. The energy - consumption limit standard has entered the solicitation stage. The price of spot M - type re - feeding material increased slightly, with the current quotation range of 50,000 - 55,000 yuan/ton. The production schedule of the polysilicon industry in September decreased slightly compared with last month, and the inventory continued to rise. The resistance above the futures price has not been broken through, and it is expected to maintain a fluctuating trend, waiting for further policy guidance [10]
20250826申万期货有色金属基差日报-20250826
20250826申万期货有色金属基差日报 研究局限性和风险提示 报告中依据和结论存在范围局限性,对未来预测存在不及预期,以及宏观环境和产业链影响因素存在不确定性变化等风险。 分析师声明 作者具有期货交易咨询执业资格,保证报告所采用的数据均来自合规渠道,分析逻辑基于作者的职业理解,本报告清晰准确 地反映了作者的研究观点,力求独立、客观和公正,结论不受任何第三方的授意或影响,作者及利益相关方不曾因也将不会因本 报告中的具体推荐意见或观点而直接或间接获取任何形式的不当利益。 免责声明 | 摘要 | 铜: 可能短期区间波动 | | | --- | --- | --- | | | 可能短期宽幅波动 锌: | | | 品种 | 观点 | 策略方向 | | | 铜:夜盘铜价收低。精矿供应延续紧张状态,冶炼利润承压,但冶炼产量延 续高增长。国家统计局数据显示,电力行业延续正增长,光伏抢装同比陡 | 可能短期区 | | 铜 | 增,未来增速可能放缓;汽车产销正增长;家电产量增速趋缓;地产持续疲 | 间波动 | | | 弱。多空因素交织,铜价可能区间波动。关注美元、铜冶炼产量和下游需求 等变化。 | | | | 锌:夜盘锌价收低 ...
华宝期货有色金属周报-20250825
Hua Bao Qi Huo· 2025-08-25 14:06
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Aluminum: Supported by macro - interest rate cut expectations, it is expected to operate at a high level in the near term. However, the off - season and actual impacts may still put pressure on the upside. Attention should be paid to the inventory - consumption trend [9][10]. - Zinc: In the short term, focus on macro - sentiment. In the medium - to - long - term, supply increase will put pressure on the upside. Zinc prices will operate within a range with increasing upper - bound pressure [12]. - Tin: In the short term, there is a situation of weak supply and demand, and the downward pressure will increase in the future [13]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 01有色周度行情回顾 - **Futures and Spot Prices**: - Copper: The futures price of CU2509 on August 22, 2025, was 78,690 yuan, down 370 yuan (- 0.47%) from August 15. The spot price was 78,825 yuan, down 345 yuan (- 0.44%) [7]. - Aluminum: The futures price of AL2510 was 20,630 yuan, down 140 yuan (- 0.67%). The spot price was 20,750 yuan, up 70 yuan (0.34%) [7]. - Zinc: The futures price of ZN2510 was 22,275 yuan, down 230 yuan (- 1.02%). The spot price was 21,930 yuan, down 734 yuan (- 3.24%) [7]. - Tin: The futures price of SN2509 was 265,930 yuan, down 890 yuan (- 0.33%). The spot price remained unchanged at 266,250 yuan [7]. - Nickel: The futures price of NI2510 was 119,610 yuan, down 990 yuan (- 0.82%). The spot price was 120,890 yuan, down 930 yuan (- 0.76%) [7]. 3.2 02本周有色行情预判 - **Aluminum**: - Logic: Last week, aluminum prices fluctuated within a range. The increasing expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut and China's policy to boost domestic demand created a positive atmosphere, which is expected to boost aluminum consumption. Supply slightly increased with the commissioning of a small amount of replacement capacity. The overall operating rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing leading enterprises increased by 0.8 percentage points to 59.5%. Some sub - sectors showed improvement, while the recycled aluminum operating rate declined slightly. As of August 25, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in domestic mainstream consumption areas increased [9]. - Viewpoint: Supported by macro - interest rate cut expectations, it is expected to operate at a high level in the near term, but the off - season and actual impacts may still put pressure on the upside [9][10]. - Later Attention: Geopolitical crisis development, macro - policy implementation, supply increase, and consumption release [11]. - **Zinc**: - Logic: Last week, zinc prices fluctuated within a range. The Shanghai - London ratio oscillated around 8.0, and the zinc ingot import window remained closed. The galvanizing operating rate decreased by 1.12 percentage points to 57.42%. Zinc ingot inventory increased due to some enterprises' stock - replenishment behavior. As of August 25, domestic zinc inventory increased [12]. - Viewpoint: In the short term, focus on macro - sentiment. In the medium - to - long - term, supply increase will put pressure on the upside. Zinc prices will operate within a range with increasing upper - bound pressure [12]. - Later Attention: Macro - policy implementation, mine production release, and consumption release [12]. - **Tin**: - Logic: In July, China's tin ore imports decreased both month - on - month and year - on - year. Myanmar's resumption of production was slow due to the rainy season, and African imports also declined. Supply shortage supported tin prices. The operating rate in Yunnan and Jiangxi remained low due to raw material shortages. Downstream demand was average, showing a situation of weak supply and demand in the short term [13]. - Viewpoint: In the short term, there is a situation of weak supply and demand, and the downward pressure will increase in the future [13]. - Later Attention: Myanmar's resumption of production and countries' trade policies [13]. 3.3 03品种数据 - **Aluminum** - **Bauxite**: - Price: The price of domestic high - grade bauxite in Henan remained unchanged at 640 yuan/ton week - on - week; the low - grade was 570 yuan/ton, also unchanged. The average import price was 74.74 dollars/ton, up 0.03 dollars week - on - week [17]. - Arrival and Departure Volume: The arrival volume at ports was 416.77 tons, down 92.85 tons week - on - week; the departure volume was 400.53 tons, down 13.42 tons [21]. - **Alumina**: - Price and Cost - profit: The domestic price in Henan was 3225 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan week - on - week. The full cost was 2891.7 yuan/ton, up 6.9 yuan. The profit in Shanxi was 269.57 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan [24]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: - Cost and Price Difference: The total cost was 16718.55 yuan/ton, down 19.49 yuan week - on - week. The regional price difference (Foshan - SMM A00 aluminum) was - 60 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan [26]. - Downstream Processing: The operating rates of aluminum cable, foil, plate - strip, and others showed different changes. For example, the aluminum cable operating rate was 63.6, up 1 percentage point week - on - week [31]. - Inventory: The bonded - area inventory in Shanghai was 81,900 tons, down 2900 tons week - on - week. The social inventory was 616,000 tons, up 9000 tons [37]. - Spot and Basis: The basis of SMM A00 aluminum showed different changes in different periods. For example, the basis of the current month was 60 yuan/ton, up 105 yuan week - on - week [43]. - Month - to - Month Spread: The spread between the current month and the main contract was 20 yuan/ton, up 35 yuan week - on - week [50]. - **Zinc** - **Zinc Concentrate**: - Price and Processing Fee: The domestic zinc concentrate price was 16,804 yuan/metal ton, down 200 yuan week - on - week. The domestic processing fee remained unchanged at 3900 yuan/metal ton [55]. - Production Profit, Import Profit - loss, and Inventory: The enterprise production profit was 3804 yuan/metal ton, down 200 yuan week - on - week. The import loss was 876.68 yuan/ton, up 487.84 yuan week - on - week [58]. - **Refined Zinc**: - Inventory: The SMM seven - region social inventory of zinc ingots was 138,500 tons, up 3100 tons week - on - week [61]. - **Galvanizing**: - Production, Operating Rate, and Inventory: The production was 332,890 tons, down 14,155 tons week - on - week. The operating rate was 57.42%, down 1.12 percentage points [64]. - **Zinc Basis and Month - to - Month Spread**: The basis of SMM 0 zinc ingot and the month - to - month spread of Shanghai zinc showed different changes [67][68]. - **Tin** - **Refined Tin**: - Production and Operating Rate: The combined production of Yunnan and Jiangxi was 0.289 tons, up 0.002 tons week - on - week. The combined operating rate was 59.64%, up 0.41 percentage points [74]. - **Tin Ingot Inventory**: The SHFE tin ingot inventory was 7491 tons, down 301 tons week - on - week. The Chinese regional social inventory was 9278 tons, down 802 tons [77]. - **Tin Concentrate Processing Fee and Import Profit - loss**: The tin concentrate processing fees in different regions remained unchanged week - on - week. The import profit - loss was 10,126.07 yuan/ton, down 3805.14 yuan week - on - week [79][80]. - **Spot Average Price**: The average prices of 40% and 60% tin concentrates in different regions remained unchanged week - on - week [84].
有色金属日报-20250825
Guo Tou Qi Huo· 2025-08-25 11:32
Report Industry Investment Ratings - Copper: ★★☆ (Red, indicating a bullish trend) [1] - Aluminum: ★★★ (Red, indicating a stronger bullish trend) [1] - Alumina: ★☆☆ (Red, indicating a bullish but less operable trend) [1] - Cast Aluminum Alloy: ★★★ (Red, indicating a stronger bullish trend) [1] - Zinc: ★★★ (Red, indicating a stronger bullish trend) [1] - Lead and Stainless Steel: ★☆☆ (Red, indicating a bullish but less operable trend) [1] - Tin: ★☆☆ (Red, indicating a bullish but less operable trend) [1] - Lithium Carbonate: ★★★ (Red, indicating a stronger bullish trend) [1] - Industrial Silicon: ★★★ (Red, indicating a stronger bullish trend) [1] - Polysilicon: ★★★ (Red, indicating a stronger bullish trend) [1] Core Views - The prices of various non - ferrous metals are affected by multiple factors including macro - economic events, supply - demand fundamentals, and policy changes. Different metals show different trends such as upward, downward, or oscillatory movements, and corresponding investment strategies are provided based on these trends [2][3][4] Summary by Metal Copper - On Monday, SHFE copper rose above 79,500 yuan due to the probability of Fed rate cut in September, domestic refined copper consumption substitution effect, and the expiration of 2509 options. The spot copper price reached 79,395 yuan, with Shanghai premium at 140 yuan and Guangdong premium at 60 yuan. SMM copper inventory decreased by 8,700 tons to 123,000 tons over the weekend. The refined - scrap copper price difference widened to 1,550 yuan. Attention should be paid to the resistance at 80,000 yuan and the opportunity to sell call options [2] Aluminum - SHFE aluminum oscillated strongly. The spot premium in East China was 20 yuan. Aluminum ingot social inventory increased by 20,000 tons and aluminum rod inventory increased by 9,000 tons compared to last Thursday. Downstream开工率 increased seasonally, and inventory is likely to remain low this year, but the inflection point of inventory accumulation is not clear. SHFE aluminum will oscillate in the short - term, with resistance in the 20,800 - 21,000 yuan area. Cast aluminum alloy follows SHFE aluminum. The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, and the spot - SHFE aluminum cross - variety price difference may further narrow [3] Alumina - The operating capacity of alumina is at a historical high, with industry inventory and SHFE warehouse receipts rising. Supply surplus is emerging, and spot indices are falling. The price in Henan was 3,200 yuan today. Alumina is in a weak oscillation, with support at 3,000 yuan [3] Zinc - Due to Powell's dovish remarks, the expectation of a US rate cut in September increased. The fundamental situation is supply increase and demand weakness. The price rebounded, but downstream acceptance of high - price zinc ingots is low. The spot is at a discount to the futures, and holders tend to deliver to the warehouse. SMM zinc social inventory rose to 138,500 tons. The market is dominated by short - covering, and long - entry is cautious. In the medium - term, SHFE zinc is expected to face resistance on rebounds, and short - selling opportunities above 23,500 yuan/ton are preferred [4] Lead - The expectation of primary and secondary lead production cuts is strengthening, and SMM lead social inventory decreased to 68,300 tons, supporting the price rebound. Although the consumption peak season is not prosperous, downstream purchasing sentiment has improved. In September, the new national standard for electric two - wheelers and the anti - dumping tariff on Chinese starting lead - acid batteries in the Middle East will be implemented, and SHFE lead is expected to oscillate [6] Nickel and Stainless Steel - SHFE nickel rebounded slightly, with dull trading. Traders are reluctant to lower prices, and the premium of mainstream electrowon nickel remained in the range of - 100 - 300 yuan/ton this week. Downstream purchases increased due to the price decline. Pure nickel inventory decreased by 1,000 tons to 41,000 tons, nickel - iron inventory remained at 33,000 tons, and stainless steel inventory remained at 934,000 tons. Technically, nickel price has the intention to rebound, but the fundamentals are weak, and short - selling positions are sought [7] Tin - SHFE tin increased positions slightly and shifted the main contract to 2510. The short - term resistance for the overseas market is at $34,000, and the corresponding weighted price of SHFE tin is 270,000 yuan. The overseas tin market is supported by low inventory and weak Indonesian supply, while the domestic market has low supply and demand. Tin price may rise in the short - term, and long - positions can be held based on the MA60 moving average [8] Lithium Carbonate - The futures price of lithium carbonate declined, and trading volume shrank. Some miners sold during the price increase, and there was sporadic auction supply. After the price drop, there was temporary reluctance to sell. Downstream companies adjusted their psychological price levels and were cautious in restocking. In July, lithium ore imports increased significantly, providing sufficient raw materials for domestic lithium - spodumene smelters. The total market inventory decreased slightly by 700 tons to 142,000 tons, with smelter inventory decreasing by 3,000 tons to 47,000 tons and downstream inventory increasing by nearly 3,000 tons to 52,000 tons. The mid - stream output decreased by 5% week - on - week. In the price decline, the market focus is on the expectation after the shutdown of small - scale enterprises, and the fundamentals have limited guidance on the price. A bullish approach with risk control is recommended [9] Industrial Silicon - The industrial silicon futures oscillated. After the expectation of polysilicon capacity management policy stabilized, there were more news about industrial silicon capacity elimination, but the impact on overall supply is limited. Fundamentally, both supply and demand increased, and the contradiction is not prominent. The weekly social inventory decreased slightly. The price is expected to trade in the range of 8,300 - 9,000 yuan/ton [10] Polysilicon - The polysilicon futures continued to oscillate. After the industry meeting, the price of polysilicon N - type re - feedstock rose to 49,000 yuan/ton. The actual transaction situation is unclear. The current spot price corresponds to the lower end of the oscillation range, and the upside space depends on the implementation progress of capacity - related policies. The price is expected to oscillate within a range, and a buy - on - dips strategy is recommended [11]
有色金属日报-20250821
Guo Tou Qi Huo· 2025-08-21 09:53
Report Industry Investment Ratings - Copper: ★☆☆, indicating a slightly bullish/bearish sentiment with limited trading operability on the market [1] - Aluminum: ★★★, suggesting a clear bullish/bearish trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Alumina: ★★★, representing a more distinct bullish/bearish trend and a suitable investment chance [1] - Cast Aluminum Alloy: ★★★, showing a clearer bullish/bearish trend and a current appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Zinc: ★★★, meaning a more obvious bullish/bearish trend and a proper investment option [1] - Nickel and Stainless Steel: ★☆☆, denoting a slightly bullish/bearish inclination with limited market operability [1] - Tin: ★☆☆, implying a slightly bullish/bearish judgment with limited trading feasibility on the market [1] - Lithium Carbonate: ★★★, indicating a distinct bullish/bearish trend and a relatively good investment opportunity [1] - Industrial Silicon: ★☆☆, suggesting a slightly bullish/bearish tendency with limited market operability [1] - Polysilicon: ★★★, representing a clearer bullish/bearish trend and a current appropriate investment chance [1] Report's Core View - The overall sentiment in the non - ferrous metals market is complex, with different metals showing various trends such as bullish, bearish, and oscillatory. Each metal's market is influenced by factors like supply - demand fundamentals, policy expectations, and inventory levels [2][3][4] Summary by Metals Copper - On Wednesday, Shanghai copper oscillated downward, with the weighted index trading below the MA60 moving average. The spot copper price was 78,800 yuan, and the Shanghai premium shrank to 160 yuan. Hold short positions above 79,000 yuan [2] Aluminum, Alumina, and Aluminum Alloy - Shanghai aluminum oscillated strongly. The social inventories of aluminum ingots and aluminum rods decreased by 11,000 tons and 8,000 tons respectively compared to Monday. It is expected to oscillate between 20,300 - 21,000 yuan in the short term. Cast aluminum alloy followed the trend of Shanghai aluminum, with the Baotai spot price rising by 100 yuan to 20,000 yuan. Alumina was in a weak oscillation, with support at 3,000 yuan [3] Zinc - Due to the supply - increase and demand - weak fundamentals, Shanghai zinc oscillated weakly. It is expected to oscillate in the short term, and short - selling on rebounds is the long - term strategy [4] Aluminum (again) - Aluminum price decline deepened the loss of recycled aluminum, expanding the reduction and suspension of production areas, which supported the market. However, the terminal consumption did not improve, and the rebound momentum was insufficient. It is expected to oscillate, and it is advisable to hold long positions near 16,600 yuan/ton [6] Nickel and Stainless Steel - Shanghai nickel was in the middle - late stage of a rebound, and it is recommended to actively enter short positions. The stainless - steel social inventory decreased for six consecutive times, but there were still uncertainties in the market [7] Tin - Shanghai tin decreased in the afternoon session. The spot tin price dropped to 266,800 yuan. The market was divided, with a strong fundamental on one hand and concerns about medium - long - term demand on the other. Hold short - term long positions based on the MA60 moving average [8] Lithium Carbonate - The lithium carbonate futures price oscillated. The market was active. The futures price was strong, and it is expected to oscillate. Risk control is necessary [9] Industrial Silicon - The industrial silicon futures first rose significantly and then retraced part of the gains. The fundamentals showed a situation of both supply and demand increasing, with limited improvement space. The current market is in an oscillatory pattern and may face a correction if policy expectations cool down [10] Polysilicon - Polysilicon futures continued to oscillate. The N - type re -投料 price increased to 49,000 yuan/ton. The market is in an oscillatory adjustment stage supported by policy expectations [11]