Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Macro Finance**: Index futures are long - term optimistic, buy on dips; treasury bonds are expected to move sideways [1][5][6] - **Black Building Materials**: Coking coal for short - term trading; rebar for range trading; glass is expected to be slightly bullish [1][8] - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Copper to hold long positions cautiously; aluminum to strengthen observation; nickel to observe or sell short on rallies; tin, gold, and silver for range trading; lithium carbonate for range - bound oscillations [1][11][13][15] - **Energy Chemicals**: PVC, styrene, rubber, urea, and methanol for range trading; caustic soda and soda ash to wait and see; polyolefins to oscillate weakly [1][19][21][24] - **Cotton Textile Industry Chain**: Cotton and cotton yarn, apples are expected to be slightly bullish; red dates to rebound from the bottom [1][27][28] - **Agricultural and Livestock**: For live pigs, short - term contracts to sell short on rallies, long - term contracts to be cautiously bullish; for eggs, breeding enterprises can hedge on rallies; for corn, short - term to be cautious about chasing highs, grain holders to hedge on rallies; for soybean meal, short - term contracts to be treated strongly on dips, long - term contracts to be treated weakly; for oils, the rebound of the three major oils is limited, and previous long positions should be gradually liquidated [1][29][31][32] Core Views - The A - share market has a positive start in 2026, with high trading volume and broad - based gains. Goldman Sachs is optimistic about the Chinese stock market in 2026 and 2027. The bond market is affected by low yields and high supply, and treasury bonds are expected to move sideways [5] - In the black building materials market, the coking coal market is in a game between bearish and bullish factors, and rebar is affected by supply and demand and policies [8] - The non - ferrous metals market is complex. Copper has long - term supply support but short - term over - priced risks; aluminum is affected by fundamentals and policies; nickel is expected to remain in surplus; tin is affected by supply and demand; precious metals are affected by the US economic situation [11][13][15] - The energy chemicals market is generally weak. PVC, caustic soda, and other products are affected by factors such as cost, supply, and demand [19][21] - In the cotton textile and agricultural livestock markets, products such as cotton, apples, and red dates are affected by supply, demand, and policies; live pigs, eggs, and other products are affected by factors such as supply, demand, and seasonality [27][29][31] Summary by Directory Macro Finance - **Index Futures**: On the first trading day, A - shares opened and closed higher, with the Shanghai Composite Index returning to 4000 points and trading volume exceeding 2.5 trillion. Goldman Sachs is optimistic about the Chinese stock market in 2026 and 2027, expecting annual growth of 15% - 20%. The market is expected to develop further, and investors can buy on dips [5] - **Treasury Bonds**: The market has quickly digested the positive news about fund fees and bank EVE indicators. Due to low bond yields and high supply, treasury bonds are expected to move sideways [6] Black Building Materials - **Coking Coal**: The market is in a game between bearish factors (high imported Mongolian coal inventory, weak demand) and bullish factors (domestic coal mine production cuts, cost support). Short - term trading is recommended [8] - **Rebar**: The futures price was weak on Monday. The valuation is neutral, and the supply - demand contradiction is not significant in the short term. Range trading is recommended [8] - **Glass**: Supply - side factors such as production line cold repairs are positive, but demand is weak. The price is expected to be slightly bullish in the short term, and there are opportunities for long glass and short soda ash [10] Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The price has reached a high level, but there are short - term over - priced risks. The supply is expected to be sufficient in January, and the price may fluctuate widely at a high level. Long positions should be held cautiously [11][12] - **Aluminum**: The alumina market is in a weak situation, and the aluminum price is driven by expectations and funds. The upward pressure is large in January, and observation is recommended [13] - **Nickel**: The supply of nickel ore is expected to decrease, but the overall nickel market is in surplus. The price may rebound in the short term, and investors can observe or sell short on rallies [15] - **Tin**: The supply of tin concentrate is tight, and the downstream demand is weak. The price is expected to oscillate strongly, and range trading is recommended [16] - **Silver and Gold**: Affected by the US economic situation, the prices are expected to move sideways. Long positions in silver can be held, and range trading is recommended for gold [17] - **Lithium Carbonate**: The supply is affected by factors such as mine production and imports, and the demand is strong. The price is expected to oscillate [19] Energy Chemicals - **PVC**: The cost is under pressure, the supply is high, and the demand is weak. The price is expected to oscillate at a low level, and range trading is recommended [19] - **Caustic Soda**: There is short - term delivery pressure, and the medium - term support depends on the improvement of the alumina market. Temporary observation is recommended [21] - **Styrene**: The current valuation is high, and the price is expected to oscillate. Range trading is recommended [21] - **Rubber**: The cost is supported, but the inventory is increasing, and the demand is weak. The price is expected to oscillate [22] - **Urea**: The supply is decreasing, and the demand is also weak. The price is expected to oscillate widely, and range trading is recommended [23] - **Methanol**: The supply is increasing, and the demand is weak. The price is expected to oscillate, and range trading is recommended [24] - **Polyolefins**: The supply is expected to decrease in the first quarter of 2026, but the demand improvement is limited. The price is expected to oscillate weakly, and the LP spread is expected to widen [25] - **Soda Ash**: The supply is expected to decrease, and the demand is affected by downstream industries. Temporary observation is recommended [25] Cotton Textile Industry Chain - **Cotton and Cotton Yarn**: Affected by the global cotton supply - demand situation and policies, the price is expected to be slightly bullish [27] - **Apples**: The market is stable, and the price is expected to be slightly bullish [27] - **Red Dates**: The acquisition in Xinjiang is over, and the price is expected to rebound from the bottom [28] Agricultural and Livestock - **Live Pigs**: In the short term, the price is oscillating due to supply - demand games. In the long term, the supply is expected to increase in the first quarter, and the price is under pressure. Short - term contracts can be sold short on rallies, and long - term contracts can be cautiously bullish [29] - **Eggs**: The short - term supply - demand is balanced, and the price is at a low level. In the long term, the supply pressure still exists. Breeding enterprises can hedge on rallies [31][32] - **Corn**: The short - term price increase is limited, and long - term demand is gradually released but the supply - demand pattern is relatively loose. Short - term caution is needed when chasing highs, and long - term there is strong support at the bottom [34] - **Soybean Meal**: The short - term price is affected by factors such as US soybean exports and South American weather. Range trading is recommended, with short - term contracts treated strongly on dips and long - term contracts treated weakly [35][36] - **Oils**: The short - term rebound of the three major oils is limited, and previous long positions should be gradually liquidated. In the long term, there are potential positive factors [41][42]

2026 年 1 月 4 日 宏观经济 新增政策逐渐落地，经济环比改善 ——宏观与大类资产周报（2025.12.29—2026.01.04） 宏观周报 大类资产表现 A 股大势研判：上周市场整体窄幅震荡，主要宽基指数涨跌不一，上证 综指上涨 0.1%，沪深 300、创业板指分别下跌 0.6%、1.3%。日均成交金额 为 2.11 万亿元，较前周小幅放量。两融余额为 2.56 万亿元，较前周小幅上 升，但融资买入占比小幅下降。年前市场交投情绪温和修复，政策靠前发力， 题材轮动或成主流。海外方面，美联储新任主席人选公布在即，考虑到特朗 普对美联储降息的迫切诉求，或进一步强化弱美元预期。国内险资新规落地 后，增量资金即将入市，海内外流动性共振下，春季行情有望顺势启动。 A 股配置策略：商业航天、涨价有色金属及锂电材料有望成为主要进攻 方向，海外科技股映射品种、低位消费、周期与红利板块则有望轮动。商业 航天领域，2026 年有望实现密集发射，近期仍处于催化密集期。锂电材料行 业利好延续，可关注长协价格落地情况及排产数据。其他涨价品种中，化工 板块可继续关注有机硅、炼化、MDI。大消费板块，首推乳制品、白电等性 价比红 ...

报告导读： 中观景气延续分化，科技硬件继续涨价，新兴科技带动金属需求，叠加宽松预 期升温，有色价格上涨；内需方面，服务消费景气边际改善，地产耐用品仍承压。 以上内容节选自国泰海通证券已发布的证券研究报告。 报告名称： 科技有色景气延续，服务消费需求提升；报告日期：2025.12.23 报告作者： 方奕（分析师），登记编号：S0880520120005 陶前陈（研究助理），登记编号：S0880125070014 张逸飞（分析师），登记编号：S0880524080008 重要提醒 科技有色景气延续，服务消费需求提升。 上周（ 12.15-12.21 ）中观景气表现分化，值得关注： 1 ）全球 AI 基建持续带动电子产业链需求提升，高端存储 器价格显著上涨，存储赛道景气延续偏强；流动性宽松预期升温，叠加新兴科技对金属材料需求提升，国际金属价格显著上涨。 2 ）服务消费景气边际改 善，上海迪士尼拥挤度和海南旅游价格指数环比提升；奶粉价格增速继续提升，茅台批价延续小幅上涨。中央经济工作会议提出"深入实施提振消费专项行 动"，展望 2026 ，消费在供给端和需求端的政策空间存在超预期可能。 3 ）传统内需景气偏弱，地产建 ...

证券研究报告 | 2025年11月27日 | 晨会纪要 | | --- | | 数据日期:2025-11-26 | 上证综指 | 深证成指沪深 | 300 指数 | 中小板综指 | 创业板综指 | 科创 50 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 收盘指数（点） | 3864.18 | 12907.83 | 4517.62 | 13885.62 | 3748.87 | 1315.04 | | 涨跌幅度（%） | -0.15 | 1.02 | 0.60 | 0.27 | 0.73 | 0.98 | | 成交金额（亿元） | 7010.19 | 10823.26 | 4273.61 | 3572.96 | 5235.99 | 575.75 | 【常规内容】 行业与公司 机械行业周报:制造成长周报（第 35 期）-小鹏提出人形机器人百万台量 产规划，谷歌发布 Gemini 3 汽车行业专题:汽车智能化月报系列（三十）-9 月城区 NOA 渗透率达 16%， 小鹏发布第二代 VLA、Robotaxi、全新一代 IRON 传媒互联网周报：谷歌 Nano Bana ...

Macro and Strategy - The report discusses the global asset management deep research series, focusing on personalized portfolios and tax efficiency, highlighting the advantages of separately managed accounts (SMA) for high-net-worth and institutional clients [7][8] - SMA allows for customized investment strategies based on individual risk preferences and tax optimization techniques, contrasting with model portfolios that lack personalization [7][8] Industry and Company Robotics Industry - Tesla plans to expand its Texas factory to produce 10 million humanoid robots annually, with production expected to start in 2027 [9][10] - The IPO guidance for Yuzhu Technology has been completed, indicating a rapid development in the domestic humanoid robot sector [10][12] - The report emphasizes the long-term investment opportunities in humanoid robots, suggesting a focus on core suppliers and companies with strong market positions [12] AI Infrastructure - Anthropic announced a $50 billion investment in AI data centers in the U.S., reflecting strong demand for AI-driven cloud infrastructure [11][12] - The report highlights the growing investment in AI infrastructure, particularly in energy supply for data centers, recommending companies involved in energy supply and cooling solutions [12][14] Food and Beverage Industry - Luckin Coffee reported a 50.2% year-on-year revenue increase in Q3 2025, but faced profit pressure due to rising delivery costs, which surged by 211.4% [16] - Yum China also saw revenue growth driven by its delivery sales, with a 32% increase in delivery revenue, maintaining a stable operating profit margin [16][17] - The report suggests that the differences in profitability between Luckin Coffee and Yum China stem from their competitive environments and membership channel contributions [16][17] Medical Device Industry - The medical sector outperformed the overall market, with a 3.29% increase in the biopharmaceutical sector, while the medical device multinational corporations (MNCs) reported varied performance across different product categories [18][19] - The report recommends focusing on innovative and export-capable A-share medical device companies, particularly those benefiting from domestic substitution trends [19] Power Equipment and New Energy - The report outlines a positive outlook for the wind power sector, expecting a 10%-20% growth in new installations in 2026, supported by strong order backlogs and price stability [20][21] - The lithium battery industry is anticipated to recover from a downtrend, with new technologies like solid-state batteries expected to accelerate commercialization [20][21] - Recommendations include focusing on companies involved in energy supply for AI data centers and those in the lithium battery supply chain [21][22] Semiconductor Equipment - Tuojing Technology reported a significant revenue increase of 124.15% year-on-year in Q3 2025, driven by the scaling of advanced packaging and storage equipment [23][24] - The company is expected to benefit from the ongoing expansion in the storage wafer market, with a focus on advanced packaging technologies [25][26]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform the Market" rating for the industry [5][10]. Core Insights - The humanoid robot industry is accelerating towards large-scale production, highlighted by Tesla's plan to expand its Texas factory to produce 10 million humanoid robots annually by 2027 [1][17]. - The completion of IPO guidance for Yuzhu Technology indicates a rapid development of domestic humanoid robot leaders [2][18]. - Anthropic's $50 billion investment in AI infrastructure reflects strong demand for AI-driven cloud infrastructure [3][19]. Summary by Relevant Sections Humanoid Robots - Tesla's expansion plan for its Texas factory aims for an annual production capacity of 10 million humanoid robots, expected to commence in 2027 [1][17]. - The completion of Yuzhu Technology's IPO guidance signifies a boost for domestic humanoid robot supply chains [2][18]. - Key companies to focus on include core suppliers and those with strong market positions, such as Feirongda, Longxi Co., Weiman Sealing, Hengli Hydraulic, and others [2][7]. AI Infrastructure - Anthropic's $50 billion investment in AI data centers showcases significant capital inflow into AI infrastructure, with initial centers set to launch in 2026 [3][19]. - The report emphasizes the high growth potential of AI computing power as a primary investment theme, recommending focus on energy supply and cooling solutions for AI data centers [3][7]. Industry Dynamics - Recent developments include the launch of Russia's first domestic humanoid robot and significant investments in data center projects by major tech firms [4][21]. - The report highlights key companies to watch, including Yingli Co., Lian De Co., and Han Zhong Precision [4][12]. Company Performance Forecast - The report provides earnings forecasts and investment ratings for several key companies, all rated as "Outperform the Market," indicating expected superior performance compared to market indices [10][25].

Market Overview - On September 11, the Hang Seng Index fell by 114 points or 0.4%, closing at 26,086 points, maintaining above the 26,000 mark[1] - The Hang Seng Tech Index slightly decreased by 0.2%, closing at 5,888 points[1] - Total market turnover reached over HKD 325.2 billion, with net inflow from the Stock Connect at HKD 18.99 billion[1] Sector Performance - The biopharmaceutical sector was heavily impacted, declining by 3.1%, but many stocks saw significant rebounds, with Jiangsu Hengrui Medicine (2617 HK) and others rising between 10.1% and 20.8%[1] - Alibaba (9988.HK) announced a USD 3.2 billion zero-coupon convertible bond issuance, with 80% allocated for AI infrastructure, leading to a 0.4% increase in its stock price[1] - Stocks related to AI infrastructure and semiconductors, such as ZTE Corporation (763 HK) and SMIC (981 HK), saw gains between 4.9% and 12.8%[1] Trade Relations and Economic Outlook - The U.S.-China trade tensions are resurfacing, with Mexico raising tariffs on Chinese and other Asian cars to 50%, indicating a shift towards regional trade systems[2] - Upcoming APEC summit discussions and potential breakthroughs in U.S.-China negotiations are critical to monitor, especially regarding trade and technology restrictions[2] Real Estate Market Insights - New home sales in 30 major cities reached 1.29 million square meters, a year-on-year increase of 3.7%, but down 30.3% month-on-month[5] - First-tier cities showed mixed results, with Beijing down 6.6% and Guangzhou up 11.1% year-on-year[6] - The land transaction volume in 100 major cities fell by 43.5% year-on-year, indicating a significant slowdown in real estate activity[8] Policy Adjustments - Shenzhen has optimized its housing purchase and credit policies, allowing families to buy unlimited properties in certain districts[9] - The overall sentiment in the real estate sector remains cautious, with expectations for policy measures to stimulate demand during the "Golden September and Silver October" period[11]

Industry Overview - The electronic industry experienced a market increase of 6.28% last week, with semiconductor and consumer electronics sectors also showing significant gains of 5.46% and 8.13% respectively [3] - Nvidia reported a Q2 revenue of $46.7 billion, a 56% year-over-year increase, with data center revenue contributing $41.1 billion, also up 56% year-over-year [4][5] - The automotive industry is witnessing a surge in smart vehicle technology, with new product launches from companies like Zhijie and Wenjie, showcasing advancements in intelligent driving and smart cockpit features [7][8] - The real estate sector in Shanghai has seen policy changes, including the removal of purchase limits outside the outer ring, aimed at boosting housing demand [13][14] - The traditional Chinese medicine sector is seeing a recovery in performance, with Yiling Pharmaceutical reporting a 26.03% increase in net profit for H1 2025 [17][18] - The chemical industry, particularly in refrigerants, is experiencing high growth, with a 146.97% increase in net profit for Juhua Co. in H1 2025 [25][26] Electronic Industry - The electronic sector's PE ratio (TTM) is at 60.63X, up 3.53X week-over-week, indicating a strong valuation trend [3] - Nvidia anticipates Q3 revenue to reach $54 billion, reflecting a 53.93% growth driven by robust demand for computing power [5] - Investment opportunities are identified in AI infrastructure, edge SOC, and foldable smartphone supply chains, with a recommendation to focus on companies like Cambricon and Chipone [5] Automotive Industry - New models from Zhijie and Wenjie are equipped with advanced radar systems and intelligent driving technologies, enhancing user experience [8][9] - The market for smart vehicles is expected to grow, supported by government policies favoring electric vehicle adoption and technological advancements [11] Real Estate Industry - Recent policy adjustments in Shanghai aim to stimulate housing demand by easing purchase restrictions in outer areas [13][14] - The new policies are expected to alleviate inventory pressure in suburban regions, promoting sales in quality projects [14] Traditional Chinese Medicine Industry - Yiling Pharmaceutical's H1 2025 revenue was reported at 4.04 billion yuan, with a net profit increase of 26.03% [17][18] - The company is advancing its new drug development, with several products in various stages of clinical trials [19][20] Chemical Industry - Juhua Co. reported a revenue of 13.33 billion yuan in H1 2025, with a net profit increase of 146.97%, primarily driven by the refrigerant business [25][26] - The company is expanding its production capacity and expects continued growth in the refrigerant market due to strong demand [27][28] Innovation Drug Industry - Changchun High-tech reported a revenue of 6.60 billion yuan in H1 2025, with a net profit decline of 42.85% due to increased expenses [30][31] - The company is focusing on enhancing its R&D and sales capabilities to drive innovation and market expansion [32][33] - Future growth is anticipated through a robust pipeline of innovative drugs targeting unmet medical needs [34]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" [2] Core Viewpoints - AI infrastructure investment is still in the early stages, with strong core momentum. Global AI infrastructure construction is expected to grow significantly, with AI server shipments projected to increase by over 20% year-on-year by 2025, and penetration rates expected to reach 15% [2] - North American CSP manufacturers are raising capital expenditure plans, with Google increasing its annual CapEx guidance to $85 billion and Meta adjusting it to $66-72 billion. The demand for AI computing power is driven by the rapid iteration and performance improvement of AI large models [2] - The current AI hardware sector has formed a "demand-technology-capacity" resonance, with visibility of leading companies' performance in the industry chain expected to improve significantly [2] Summary by Sections Market Tracking - The electronic sub-sectors have seen significant increases, with the Shenwan Electronics Secondary Index year-to-date performance as follows: Semiconductors (+15.43%), Other Electronics II (+19.52%), Components (+61.60%), Optical Electronics (+3.37%), Consumer Electronics (+17.94%), and Electronic Chemicals II (+25.93%) [8] - This week, the performance of major North American stocks varied, with notable increases for Intel (+23.11%) and decreases for TSMC (-1.22%) and Nvidia (-1.23%) [11] Recommendations - Suggested companies to watch include: Overseas AI - Industrial Fulian, Huadian Co., Pengding Holdings, Shenghong Technology, Shengyi Technology, Shengyi Electronics; Domestic AI - Cambricon, Chipone, Haiguang Information, SMIC, Shenzhen South Circuit [2]

Investment Rating - The report suggests a cautious approach towards various sectors due to the impact of tariffs on GDP and corporate earnings, particularly in Europe and Japan [1][4][12]. Core Insights - Tariffs have a varied impact on GDP and corporate earnings across different regions, with Europe experiencing a GDP impact of approximately 0.2%-0.4% and Japan facing a potential drag of 0.9% on GDP growth for the fiscal year 2025 [1][4][12]. - Most corporate earnings are affected by tariffs in the range of 5%-15%, with companies having high profit margins able to pass on costs through price increases [1][5][8]. - The consumer sector, particularly sportswear, can absorb tariff costs through price hikes, while large appliances are less affected due to local production [1][8][50]. - The technology sector, including companies like Apple and Amazon, faces significant challenges, with potential profit impacts exceeding double digits for Amazon [1][8][42]. Summary by Sections Economic Impact - The static assessment indicates that tariffs will reduce Japan's GDP growth by 0.9% and EPS growth by 5%-7% in 2025 [3][12]. - The EU's new tariffs could suppress GDP growth by 0.2-0.4 percentage points, with additional uncertainty potentially reducing growth by another 0.2 percentage points [1][10]. Sector-Specific Impacts - In the consumer sector, sports footwear can offset tariff costs with price increases of 8%-10%, while luxury goods may require a 3%-5% price increase to maintain margins [1][8][50]. - The technology sector is particularly vulnerable, with Apple facing an 8%-10% negative impact and Amazon potentially experiencing double-digit profit declines [1][8][42]. - The chemical industry shows resilience due to global operations and high local self-sufficiency, although supply chain vulnerabilities remain a concern [29]. Corporate Strategies - Companies with diversified revenue sources, such as those with significant overseas income, are less affected by U.S. tariffs [5][8]. - Firms in the industrial sector are adapting by adjusting pricing strategies to mitigate the impact of tariffs on profit margins [32][36]. - The report highlights the importance of local production and supply chain management in mitigating tariff impacts, particularly for companies in the electrical equipment sector [35][36]. Market Dynamics - The report notes that the European market is currently underweight in terms of investment, with capital inflows remaining low despite the challenges posed by tariffs [11]. - The agricultural sector is facing increased tariffs from China, but the overall impact on U.S. agricultural exports has been limited due to reduced reliance on U.S. soybeans [27][28]. Future Outlook - The report emphasizes the need for companies to remain agile in response to ongoing tariff negotiations and potential retaliatory measures from other countries [6][7]. - Companies in the semiconductor and hardware sectors are advised to closely monitor tariff developments, as they could significantly impact production costs and pricing strategies [42][45].