杰德・埃勒布鲁克几乎彻夜未眠。 那是 4 月 2 日周三晚间，特朗普总统刚刚现身白宫玫瑰园，手持一块大幅公告牌，上面赫然写着他将对 全球多国征收的惩罚性关祱税率。华尔街迅速意识到，特朗普此次是动真格的 —— 他要打破这个他口 中对美国不公的全球贸易体系。 来源：环球市场播报 当晚与家人用餐时，乃至整夜，埃勒布鲁克都在琢磨后续走势。当时亚洲市场暴跌，一场全球范围的股 市崩盘就此拉开序幕。作为银资本管理公司的投资组合经理，埃勒布鲁克与团队次日一早便在圣路易斯 的办公室紧急集结，着手分析关祱政策对持仓股票的影响。当天股市抛售潮愈演愈烈，其持仓占比最大 的亚马逊股价暴跌近 10%。 和从东京到纽约的全球投资者一样，埃勒布鲁克在这场罕见的市场波动中，仓促地完成了一场 "动荡应 对速成课"。标普 500 指数一度逼近熊市边缘，随后市场情绪却迅速反转，触发了数十年来最快的股市 反弹之一，最终推动这一基准指数创下历史新高。市场给出的核心启示是：保持冷静、敢于逢低买入， 终有回报。 美国经济的起伏与人工智能热潮固然对市场影响深远，但 2025 年的诸多市场波动，根源大多指向白 宫。 加拿大银行信贷分析公司首席美国股票策略师艾琳 ...

这种调整恰好呈现了2025年全球经济的核心转变：从年初面对冲击的"应激反应"，到年尾构建自身 的"适应性"。我们不再仅仅预测不确定性，而是在学习如何与之共存。 对我而言，这场关税"海啸"的源头，远比4月2日美国总统那纸行政令更早。它始于2024年大选期间"普 遍关税"的竞选语言，成形于今年1月美国新政府针对前三大贸易伙伴的行动，并在2月最终具象为"对等 关税"的概念。此后，美国关税政策的反复与拉扯，成了我全年报道的核心。每日清晨查看白宫更新， 处理邮箱里蜂拥而至的智库报告，成了我的工作常态。 在这场信息的狂轰滥炸中，"不确定性"无疑是最贴切的年度注脚。起初，这种不确定性笼罩着浓厚的悲 观预期。3月底，一位全球投资咨询公司的首席策略师在一场内部研讨会中表示，到年底标普500指数可 能跌至4450点，较年初下跌24%。然而，截至今天，标普500指数年内实际录得约18%的涨幅。 这说明，全球经济的剧本远比想象复杂，而作为观众的全球贸易体系与金融市场，其反应也发生了微妙 演变。4月的市场在冲击波面前仍会剧烈震荡，那到了年末，它已经像一台加装了减震器的机器，开始 尝试从波动本身中分离出可定价的风险与机会。 这种"抗冲击 ...

【导读】2025年，世界在变奏中寻找新的平衡 一、 全球9家主要央行降息 美联储结束缩表周期 2025年，包括美国联邦储备委员会（美联储）、欧洲中央银行（欧央行）、英国央行，以及澳大利亚央行、新西兰央行、加拿大央行、瑞典央行、挪威央 行和瑞士央行在内的9家主要央行选择降息。日本央行成为例外，在年初和年底先后两次上调了利率。 美联储继2024年开启降息周期后，2025年持续保持宽松政策，分别在2025年9月、10月、12月进行了三次幅度各为25个基点的降息。同时，美联储官员们 于10月会议官宣缩表终止计划，自12月1日起结束为期三年半的缩表行动。 二、 "DeepSeek时刻"令全球发现中国价值 2025年，以深度求索公司（DeepSeek）的通用人工智能模型和宇树科技在通用人形机器人领域的突破为代表，中国在前沿科技与先进制造行业取得了全 球瞩目的进展，展现了中国科技创新的潜力与实力。 中国证监会主席吴清在全国两会期间指出，人工智能是今年两会的热词，DeepSeek在全球人工智能领域脱颖而出，不仅使AI行业深受震撼，也让世界对 中国科技创新能力有了新的认识，带动了中国资产价值重估。 一级市场上，美元基金围绕硬科 ...

波澜壮阔的2025年即将结束。这一年，权力的更迭、科技的狂飙、货币的易位与地缘的震荡交织在一起，构成了一幅极其复杂的历史画卷。我们见 证了传统秩序的加速崩解，也捕捉到了新秩序在阵痛中萌芽的微光。 作为记录者，财联社连续第四年推出年度海外十大新闻评选，试图从纷繁复杂的碎片中，厘清这一年影响全球资本市场与命运走向的核心脉 络。 以下是财联社评选出的2025年十大海外新闻 1. 特朗普就任美国第47任总统，任期首年频挥关税大棒，全球不确定性陡增 2025年1月20日，特朗普重返白宫，正式开启了他的第二个美国总统任期。这位奉行"交易艺术"的总统在就职后的"百日新政"中，以令市 场瞠目结舌的速度兑现了一系列竞选承诺。他不仅签署了多项撤销前任政府气候与能源政策的行政令，更将矛头直指全球贸易体系，宣布对 多国实施普遍性基础关税和针对性的高额附加关税，试图以此作为逼迫制造业回流美国的终极杠杆。 这一政策在全球供应链中引发了"强震"。由于关税壁垒的陡然升高，全球跨国企业不得不重新评估其生产布局，导致短期内航运成本波动剧 烈，多国通胀压力因进口成本上升而再度抬头。欧盟、加拿大、墨西哥等美国贸易伙伴纷纷表达了强烈不满，并相继出台贸 ...

宏观 国投期货 2026 年度策略报告 ——恒中有变，观复顺时 2025 年 12 月 各项声明请参见报告尾页 期市有风险，投资需谨慎 目录 | 1.宏观经济与大类资产运行回顾：披荆斩棘，行则将至 3 | | | | --- | --- | --- | | 1.1.全球经济：美元流动性困扰，TACO 交易兴起 | 3 | | | 1.2.中国经济：信用维稳，虚实分化 4 | | | | 1.3.政策框架：宏观博弈，政策联动 5 | | | | 展望 2026：恒中有变，观复顺时 2. | 6 | | | 2.1.政策逻辑：美国的政策约束 | 6 | | | 2.1.1.美联储的约束：掌控收益率曲线的难度增加 6 | | | | 2.1.2.美国财政的约束：财政成本与发债结构 7 | | | | 2.1.3.总结：从收益率曲线控制的视角出发 9 | | | | 2.2.宏观博弈坐标系：收益率曲线与美元的组合 10 | | | | 2.2.1.收益率曲线走陡下的宏观情景 | 10 | | | 2.2.2.收益率曲线走平下的宏观情景 | 13 | | | 2.2.3.总结——收益率曲线管理的考验 15 | | | ...

Group 1 - The report identifies four macro clues for 2025: TACO trading, the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut rhythm, AI commercialization, and China's export resilience [8] - It suggests that in 2026, the domestic GDP growth is expected to shift from external demand to investment driven by central finance, alongside a price recovery leading to a restocking cycle [8] - The report emphasizes that the main industry themes for 2026 will focus on "anti-involution" and "hard technology" sectors, highlighting coal, chemicals, construction materials, and power equipment as key areas for potential profit recovery [8] Group 2 - The asset allocation outlook for 2026 recommends a diversified approach, favoring equities and commodities over interest rate bonds, with an overweight on A-shares and Hong Kong stocks [8] - The report notes that the current market is driven by institutional funds rather than retail investors, indicating a preference for sectors with high profitability and fundamental improvements [8] - It highlights that the active equity funds are heavily concentrated in the TMT sector, with over 40% of holdings, leaving room for "anti-involution" and domestic demand recovery sectors [8] Group 3 - The report discusses the performance of various asset classes in 2025, noting that precious metals and Asia-Pacific equities led the gains, while bonds showed lackluster performance [10][11] - It indicates that the dollar index weakened by approximately 8.3%, and the USD/CNY exchange rate decreased by about 3.01% [11] - The report also highlights that the VIX index experienced significant fluctuations due to trade policy uncertainties, impacting market sentiment and asset performance [20]

光期研究 2026 年有色金属 策略报告 光大期货研究所 2025 年 12 月 2026 年度策略报告 目录 铜：乘 AI 风起 审慎乐观 ........................... 2 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 EVERBRIGHT FUTURES 1 铝：渐入佳境 铝有乾坤 ........................... 36 镍&不锈钢：破而后立 蛰伏待机 ............ 65 2026 年度策略报告 铜：乘 AI 风起 审慎乐观 有色研究总监：展大鹏 年报摘要： 风险提示 基本面：COMEX 铜溢价大幅转向、大型铜矿投产或复产提前落地、新 能源领域不及预期； 宏观面：美联储政策突然转向风险、日央行连续加息风险以及美股科技 股泡沫破灭风险； 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 EVERBRIGHT FUTURES 2 2026 年度策略报告 2025 年行情回顾 2025 年，LME 铜价重心上移，伦铜波动区间在 8105.5-11334 美元/吨， 年结算均价约在 9834 美元/吨，较去年上涨 5.6%；沪铜主力合约波动区 间在 71320-89920 元/吨， ...

Group 1 - The article discusses the significant impact of US-China geopolitical competition on global capital markets, highlighting the contrasting roles of the US as a mature stock market and China as an emerging market [3][7]. - The US initiated a trade war and tariff battle, which has led to substantial declines in the US stock market, particularly affecting major technology stocks [5][6]. - The TACO trading strategy emerged as a response to the cyclical nature of Trump's tariff threats, allowing investors to buy during market panic and sell when policies soften [5]. Group 2 - China has implemented strong countermeasures in response to the US's trade actions, including a series of measures to stabilize its capital market, such as providing sufficient re-lending support from the central bank [6]. - The article outlines the historical context of financial crises triggered by US trade wars in other countries, emphasizing that only China has effectively countered the US's trade aggression [6]. - The US financial market faces severe challenges, including extensive money printing by the Federal Reserve, which has led to a balance sheet of $9 trillion due to quantitative easing [9]. Group 3 - The US has experienced a significant increase in fiscal deficits and national debt since 2008, with the national debt reaching approximately $37 trillion by September 2025 [10]. - The article notes that the US capital market is overvalued, with the overall market P/E ratio exceeding 20, and specific indices like the S&P 500 and Nasdaq showing even higher ratios, indicating potential risks for a market correction [11]. Group 4 - China's stock market is evolving towards long-term and value investing, with a series of measures introduced to boost market confidence and stabilize valuations [12]. - The article categorizes China's initiatives into three phases: initial measures to boost market activity, quantitative support for high-quality economic development, and encouraging state-owned enterprises to invest in blue-chip stocks [13].

Group 1 - The dollar's status as a safe haven is weakening, with the dollar index dropping over 7% since the beginning of 2025 due to market concerns [1] - The "Sell America" narrative is gaining traction as Trump's policies may exacerbate the U.S. deficit, leading to a downgrade in the U.S. credit rating by Moody's and a sell-off in U.S. bonds, with the 30-year Treasury yield briefly surpassing 5% [2] - Tesla's stock experienced volatility, soaring to a historic high of $488.5 after Musk endorsed Trump, but later plummeting due to declining delivery numbers and subsequent public fallout [3] Group 2 - The term "TACO" (Trump Always Comes Out) has gained popularity in financial markets, reflecting the belief that Trump often delays the implementation of proposed tariffs, allowing Wall Street to buy on dips [4] - Trump's favorable stance towards the cryptocurrency sector, including the consideration of establishing a Bitcoin reserve, has contributed to a surge in the total market value of cryptocurrencies, which first surpassed $4 trillion in July, with Bitcoin reaching a record high of $126,000 in October [5] - Geopolitical tensions and Trump's attacks on the independence of the Federal Reserve have fueled global demand for safe-haven assets, driving gold prices to new highs and boosting silver and other precious metals [6] Group 3 - The U.S. stock market has experienced significant volatility since Trump's election, with the S&P 500 index rising 18%, while the "Big Seven" tech companies accounted for over half of the market's total gains, leaving other sectors struggling [7] - Trump's push for energy independence, encapsulated in the slogan "Drill, Baby, Drill," led to a national energy emergency declaration and pressure on OPEC+ to increase production, resulting in international oil prices hitting a four-year low [8] - Concerns over Trump's threats to withdraw from NATO and reduce aid to Ukraine have prompted significant increases in military spending and infrastructure investment in Europe, leading to a surge in European defense stocks [9]

Core Insights - The article discusses the significant shifts in the global financial landscape following Trump's return to the presidency, highlighting the rise of Bitcoin as a key asset in a world of increasing uncertainty [1][5][15] Group 1: Market Dynamics - Since Trump's re-election in November 2024, global financial markets have experienced unprecedented volatility and revaluation, with the dollar, gold, and Bitcoin all rising sharply [5] - The U.S. government's trade restructuring and fiscal stimulus have led to increased national debt and inflation expectations, impacting investor behavior [5][14] Group 2: Bitcoin's Role - Bitcoin's price surge is seen as a reflection of macroeconomic changes rather than mere speculation, with its potential integration into the global financial system being a focal point [7] - Experts suggest that Bitcoin is emerging as a "neutral digital reserve asset" amid intensifying currency wars and a deepening U.S. debt crisis [7][15] Group 3: Traditional Assets - Gold has reached a historical high of $4,381 per ounce, while the dollar has seen a cumulative decline of approximately 4% post-election [9][10] - The simultaneous rise of gold and Bitcoin is interpreted as a strategy for diversified risk management within the dollar system, rather than an indication of the dollar's collapse [10] Group 4: Stock Market Trends - The global stock market has set new records, driven by the AI boom and expectations of interest rate cuts, despite initial volatility caused by tariff announcements [11][12] - Since the election, the MSCI global index has risen over 20%, with the S&P 500 gaining 17%, indicating a recovery in investor confidence [13] Group 5: Debt and Trade - The fiscal expansion under Trump has pressured global bond markets, with 30-year U.S. Treasury yields rising to 4.66%, reflecting concerns over public finance sustainability [14] - Trade policies have successfully reduced the U.S. trade deficit, with the overall deficit dropping to $60.2 billion, the lowest in two years, and the deficit with China decreasing by 70% [14]