Core Viewpoint - The escalation of the US-China trade war has transitioned from tariff disputes to a more systemic and long-term confrontation, impacting various industries, particularly the medical device sector [2][6]. Group 1: Policy Signals - The US government has initiated a "medical device import safety investigation," which is expected to create new systemic risks for the medical device industry [4][8]. - The focus has shifted from tariffs to national security and supply chain stability, with medical devices now being viewed as tools in economic policy and diplomatic negotiations [9][16]. - The introduction of non-tariff barriers is increasing regulatory pressure on manufacturers, affecting product pricing and procurement processes [9][14]. Group 2: Industry Performance - The US medical health sector, including medical devices, has underperformed the broader market, with a year-on-year decline of approximately 5% as of September 2025 [10]. - The industry's structural anxieties are reflected in stock volatility, driven by long investment cycles and high R&D costs, leading to short-term capital outflows [10][13]. - The expectation of policy-driven valuation fluctuations is becoming a new norm, where companies' competitiveness will depend on their ability to navigate global policy frameworks [10][13]. Group 3: Supply Chain Risks - The medical device industry's core challenge is not just manufacturing capability but the stability of manufacturing processes [11]. - A decline in the US manufacturing PMI to 49.1 in September 2025 indicates a contraction, which will impact upstream suppliers and increase hidden costs for medical device manufacturers [11][12]. - The shift from low-cost manufacturing to a model prioritizing stability and control is reshaping the global supply chain dynamics [11][12]. Group 4: Structural Reassessment - The high regulatory nature of the medical device industry has led to a reassessment of its stability and defensive characteristics [12]. - The trend of "de-risking" is replacing "decoupling," indicating a move towards diversified supply chains to mitigate single risk exposure [12][17]. - The global production model is transitioning from cost optimization to risk minimization, marking a significant structural change driven by the trade war [12][17]. Group 5: Future Outlook - The potential for further US import restrictions on medical devices could disrupt extensive US-China material and OEM collaborations [15]. - The medical device industry is becoming a strategic focal point in the economic and security landscape, with implications for both domestic and international market dynamics [16][17]. - The long-term competition will increasingly hinge on technology and standards, with countries and companies that master certification systems and supply stability redefining competitive boundaries [17].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles revolves around the conflicting signals from the Trump administration regarding trade tariffs on China, indicating a potential strategy of using threats to gain leverage in negotiations [1][2][6] - Trump's announcement of a 100% tariff on China was quickly followed by a clarification from U.S. Trade Representative Lighthizer, suggesting a lack of readiness for a full-blown trade war, which reflects an internal shift in the White House's stance [1][2] - The U.S. has been employing a mix of pressure tactics, including sanctions and tariffs on various sectors, to create a tense atmosphere while still signaling a willingness to negotiate [2][4] Group 2 - In response to the U.S. tariffs, China implemented a series of targeted countermeasures, including export controls on rare earths and investigations into U.S. chip companies, indicating a well-prepared strategy to counter U.S. actions [4][6] - The timing of China's countermeasures suggests that they anticipated Trump's actions and were ready to respond effectively, highlighting the strength and precision of their strategy [4][6] - The future of U.S.-China relations hinges on finding cooperative spaces amidst competition, with a call for more balanced negotiations rather than a continuation of a hegemonic approach [7][9]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Iron ore: Volatile [2] - Coking coal and coke: Volatile and weakening [2] - Rebar and hot-rolled coils: Adjusting [2] - Glass: Volatile [2] - Soda ash: Volatile [2] - CSI 50: Volatile [4] - CSI 300: Volatile [4] - CSI 500: Downward [4] - CSI 1000: Downward [4] - 2-year Treasury bonds: Volatile [4] - 5-year Treasury bonds: Volatile [4] - 10-year Treasury bonds: Upward [4] - Gold: Strongly volatile [4] - Silver: Strongly volatile [4] - Logs: Range-bound [6] - Pulp: Consolidating [6] - Offset paper: Volatile [6] - Soybean oil: Widely volatile [6] - Palm oil: Widely volatile [6] - Rapeseed oil: Widely volatile [6] - Soybean meal: Volatile and bearish [6] - Rapeseed meal: Volatile and bearish [6] - Soybean No. 2: Volatile and bearish [6] - Soybean No. 1: Volatile and bearish [7] - Live pigs: Volatile and bullish [7] - Rubber: Volatile [7] - PX: Wait-and-see [8] - PTA: Volatile [8] - MEG: Wait-and-see [8] - PR: Wait-and-see [8] - PF: Wait-and-see [8] Core Views - The black sector is affected by tariff expectations, and the price trends of different varieties vary. The financial market is influenced by trade policies, and the bond and precious metal markets show specific trends. The light industrial and agricultural product markets are affected by supply and demand, policies, and weather. The polyester market has complex supply and demand situations and price trends [2][4][6] Summary by Related Catalogs Black Industry - **Iron ore**: Affected by Trump's tariff pressure and supply-side news, the short-term unilateral drive is not strong, and the price trend is relatively stronger than that of finished products. The key lies in steel demand after the holiday [2] - **Coking coal and coke**: Tariff expectations suppress the black sector. Domestic coking coal production is expected to be lower than last year, and the demand for coke is strong. The first round of coke price increases has been implemented, and the second round has basically failed [2] - **Rebar and hot-rolled coils**: The static valuation of rebar is low, and the supply pressure is slightly high. Focus on the demand recovery in October. The high supply and continuous inventory accumulation of finished products bring pressure, and the price needs to cooperate with rapid de-stocking to stabilize [2] - **Glass**: The short-term supply and demand pattern has not improved significantly, and the inventory has increased. The real estate completion decline drags down the demand. Pay attention to the demand repair in the peak season and production capacity policies [2] - **Soda ash**: The short-term supply and demand are basically balanced. Pay attention to the marginal repair in the peak season [2] Financial Sector - **Stock index futures/options**: The stock index closed down in the previous trading day. Soft drinks and forestry sectors had capital inflows, while semiconductors and computer hardware sectors had outflows. The market risk aversion sentiment has increased, and it is recommended to reduce risk preference [4] - **Treasury bonds**: The yield of 10-year Treasury bonds has declined, and the market trend is upward. Hold long positions in Treasury bonds [4] - **Gold and silver**: Gold is in a strongly volatile state. Its pricing mechanism is changing, and it is affected by factors such as the US debt problem, interest rates, geopolitical risks, and physical demand. Silver also shows a similar trend [4] Light Industry and Agriculture - **Logs**: The port daily shipment volume has increased, the supply pressure is not large, and the cost support has increased. It is expected to be range-bound [6] - **Pulp**: The spot market price has mixed trends, and the cost support has increased. However, the demand improvement is uncertain, and it is expected to consolidate at the bottom [6] - **Offset paper**: The spot market price is stable, the production is relatively stable, and the demand is expected to improve. It is expected to be volatile [6] - **Oils and fats**: The global trade situation is deteriorating, and the supply of oils and fats is abundant. It is expected to continue the wide-range volatile pattern [6] - **Meal products**: The global trade relationship has deteriorated, and the supply pressure of meal products is increasing. It is expected to be volatile and bearish [6] - **Live pigs**: The average transaction weight is declining, the supply is abundant, and the demand is weak. It is expected to be volatile and weak in the short term [7] - **Rubber**: The supply pressure in Yunnan has decreased, and the production in Hainan is lower than expected. The demand and inventory situation are complex, and it is expected to be volatile [7] Polyester Industry - **PX**: The supply and demand are increasing, and the price follows the oil price [8] - **PTA**: The supply and demand have marginally improved, but the terminal orders are weaker than expected. The price follows the cost [8] - **MEG**: The port inventory has increased, the supply pressure has increased, and the short-term cost fluctuates greatly [8] - **PR**: The post-holiday replenishment is weak, and the market may be volatile and weak [8] - **PF**: The cost support is still weak, but the downstream start-up is stable. It is expected to be volatile and sorted [8]

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号： F03105325 投资咨询证号： Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 钢矿周报（10.9-10.10） CONTENTS 目 录 基本面分析 1 The first chapter of the small title 2 综述及观点总结 2 The third chapter of the small title 1、原料市场状况分析 一周数据变化 | 项目 | 上期数据 | 本期数据 | 涨跌 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | PB粉价格（元/湿吨） | 785 | 790 | 5 | | 巴混粉价格（元/湿吨） | 820 | 824 | 4 | | PB粉现货落地利润（元/湿吨） | -10.71 | -28.76 | -18.05 | | 巴混粉现货落地利润（元/湿吨） | 0 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report The report comprehensively analyzes various sectors including finance and commodities, influenced by factors such as trade frictions, geopolitical events, and supply - demand dynamics. Trade frictions between the US and China, especially Trump's tariff statements, have a significant impact on market risk preferences, asset prices, and supply - demand relationships in different industries. Geopolitical events like the situation in the Middle East also affect relevant markets. Each sector has its own unique supply - demand characteristics and price trends, and investment strategies vary accordingly [1][2][3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Financial News and Comments 3.1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - Trump plans to impose an additional 100% tariff on Chinese goods and strict export controls on software, which makes the gold price rise and increases market uncertainty. The short - term gold price is expected to be strong, but there are also factors such as profit - taking and liquidity shocks [12][13]. 3.1.2 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - Trump's softened stance on tariffs reduces the risk of the US - China trade war, and the market risk preference rebounds. The short - term US dollar index is expected to fluctuate [14][15][16]. 3.1.3 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - The intensification of tariff disturbances and the uncertainty of Sino - US relations lead to a decline in market risk preference. It is necessary to closely monitor the progress of subsequent negotiations. If the two sides' attitudes ease, it may be a good buying opportunity [17][18][19]. 3.1.4 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - The escalation of Sino - US trade frictions puts pressure on the short - term risk preference of A - shares. It is recommended to reduce positions and wait for the progress of Sino - US relations [20][21][22]. 3.1.5 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The central bank conducts 4090 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations. If the new regulations on fund fees are not considered, the treasury bond futures are expected to gradually strengthen. After the implementation of the new regulations, there may be opportunities to buy at low prices [23][24][25]. 3.2 Commodity News and Comments 3.2.1 Black Metal (Steam Coal) - Coastal power groups release procurement demand for imported steam coal in November, but the cost of traders is high. The short - term price rebound cannot change the seasonal weakness of coal prices from October to November [26][27]. 3.2.2 Black Metal (Iron Ore) - BHP accepts RMB settlement for iron ore trade. Although there is short - term support, the pressure on the demand side should be noted due to the weakening terminal demand [28]. 3.2.3 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - The export volume of Malaysian palm oil from October 1 - 10 increased. Due to the new tariff statement by Trump, the oil market is expected to open lower this week. After the market stabilizes, long positions can be considered [29][30]. 3.2.4 Agricultural Products (Sugar) - Domestic sugar production and sales data show that the destocking of old sugar slows down. The short - term upward momentum of Zhengzhou sugar is restricted, but the downside space is limited, and it is expected to fluctuate [34][35]. 3.2.5 Agricultural Products (Cotton) - Affected by weather and Sino - US trade frictions, the picking progress of Xinjiang cotton slows down, and the upper space of Zhengzhou cotton is limited in the short term. It is necessary to pay attention to the acquisition of new cotton and Sino - US relations [39][40]. 3.2.6 Black Metal (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - The inventory of steel products increases during the holiday, and the actual pressure on finished products exists. The steel price is expected to continue the weak and volatile pattern in the near future. It is recommended to operate lightly and short on rebounds [43][44]. 3.2.7 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - The proportion of drought - affected areas in US soybean production areas increases, and the sowing progress of Brazilian soybeans is good. The Sino - US trade war escalates, and the futures price is expected to show a pattern of strong domestic and weak foreign. It is necessary to pay attention to Sino - US relations and the situation of Brazilian new crops [45][46][48]. 3.2.8 Agricultural Products (Corn) - The price of new - season corn is weak. The corn market will enter the stage of production - area pricing. It is recommended to hold short positions and not enter long positions prematurely [50][51]. 3.2.9 Agricultural Products (Corn Starch) - The inventory of corn starch enterprises increases. The spot rice - flour price difference is expected to shrink in the long - term, and the futures price difference may fluctuate at a low level [52]. 3.2.10 Agricultural Products (Jujube) - Jujube is in the transition period between old and new production seasons. The market will focus on the speculation of the opening price, and it is necessary to pay attention to the price game and acquisition progress in the production area [55]. 3.2.11 Non - ferrous Metals (Copper) - The resources of some copper mines increase. The short - term copper price is under pressure, but the medium - term expectation is good. It is recommended to buy on dips and wait and see for arbitrage [56][58][59]. 3.2.12 Non - ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - Ford delays purchasing lithium metal. The short - term price of lithium carbonate is supported, but the long - term supply is expected to increase. It is recommended to short on rallies and pay attention to the reverse spread [60][61]. 3.2.13 Non - ferrous Metals (Lead) - The discount of LME lead increases, and the domestic social inventory of lead decreases. The short - term price of Shanghai lead may fluctuate upward. It is recommended to buy on dips and pay attention to delivery risks [62][63]. 3.2.14 Non - ferrous Metals (Zinc) - The LME zinc inventory decreases, and the 0 - 3 spread strengthens. The short - term zinc price is expected to fluctuate widely. It is recommended to wait and see for single - side trading and pay attention to positive spreads for arbitrage [64][65]. 3.2.15 Non - ferrous Metals (Polysilicon) - GCL Technology obtains capital injection. The spot price of polysilicon may be stable. It is recommended to try long positions lightly and pay attention to the reverse spread [66][70]. 3.2.16 Non - ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon) - An industrial silicon project in Angola is put into operation. The fundamental contradiction of industrial silicon is not obvious. It is recommended to go long on dips with caution [71][72]. 3.2.17 Non - ferrous Metals (Nickel) - Indonesia adjusts the RKAB approval system. The global nickel inventory increases, but the nickel price has support at the bottom. It is recommended to go long at low prices at the beginning of the week [73][75][76]. 3.2.18 Energy and Chemicals (Carbon Emissions) - The EU carbon price rises slightly. The investment fund's long position increases. The carbon price is expected to fluctuate strongly [77][79]. 3.2.19 Energy and Chemicals (Crude Oil) - The number of US oil rigs decreases. The short - term oil price may be greatly affected by macro factors [80][81]. 3.2.20 Energy and Chemicals (PX) - The PX price falls. The short - term PX price is expected to adjust weakly [82][84]. 3.2.21 Energy and Chemicals (Caustic Soda) - The price of liquid caustic soda in Shandong rises locally. It is necessary to be cautious when bottom - fishing [85][87]. 3.2.22 Energy and Chemicals (PTA) - The PTA spot price moves down. The short - term PTA price is expected to adjust weakly [88][90]. 3.2.23 Energy and Chemicals (Pulp) - The price of imported wood pulp is stable. The pulp market is expected to fluctuate weakly [91][92]. 3.2.24 Energy and Chemicals (PVC) - The PVC powder price is sorted out narrowly. It is necessary to pay attention to macro changes [93]. 3.2.25 Energy and Chemicals (Bottle Chips) - The bottle chip factory reduces production. The supply - demand contradiction may accumulate in the fourth quarter, and the processing fee is under pressure [95]. 3.2.26 Energy and Chemicals (Soda Ash) - The soda ash price is stable. It is recommended to short on rallies and pay attention to supply disturbances [96][98]. 3.2.27 Energy and Chemicals (Float Glass) - The float glass price is stable. It is recommended to pay attention to the arbitrage opportunity of going long on glass 2601 and short on soda ash 2601 [99][100]. 3.2.28 Shipping Index (Container Freight Rate) - China will charge additional fees for US ships. The container freight rate index fluctuates. It is recommended to trade with a volatile mindset and pay attention to long and short opportunities [101][104].

聚烯烃周报 | 2025-10-12 聚烯烃节后大幅累库，价格承压偏弱 市场要闻与重要数据 价格与基差方面，L主力合约收盘价为7037元/吨（-40），PP主力合约收盘价为6722元/吨（-23），LL华北现货为7000 元/吨（+0），LL华东现货为7100元/吨（-10），PP华东现货为6670元/吨（-10），LL华北基差为-37元/吨（+40），LL 华东基差为73元/吨（+10）， PP华东基差为-42元/吨（-47）。 上游供应方面，PE开工率为83.9%（+1.9%），PP开工率为77.7%（+1.1%）。 生产利润方面，PE油制生产利润为542.8元/吨（+157.6），PP油制生产利润为-127.2元/吨（+157.6），PDH制PP生产 利润为-99.0元/吨（-270.1）。 进出口方面，LL进口利润为10.8元/吨（+52.2），PP进口利润为-547.8元/吨（-73.5），PP出口利润为17.5美元/吨（+9.1）。 下游需求方面，PE下游农膜开工率为35.6%（+2.8%），PE下游包装膜开工率为52.9%（+0.5%），PP下游塑编开工 率为44.3%（+0.4%），PP下游B ...

农产品周报 | 2025-10-12 关税战再次升级，板块跟随宏观波动 国内方面， 受9月下旬及国庆假期期间降温降雨影响，棉花采摘较预期有所推迟，采摘进度已近1/4，但前期籽棉 水分偏高，轧花厂严控超水籽棉。棉农基本顺价交售，随着近期籽棉水分降低，机采棉收购价涨至6.1-6.2元/公斤 左右。 市场分析 宏观方面，中美贸易战在2025年10月再度升级，双方采取强硬措施互相施压：美国威胁自11月1日起对中国商品加 征100%额外关税，中国则实施稀土出口管制、对美船舶征收特别港务费等措施。国际方面，美国联邦政府已停摆 超一周，受此影响本周美棉生长周报、出口装运以及USDA月报等数据均暂停发布。由于此前USDA对于中国等增 产国家的产量调整或尚未到位，新年度全球棉市供需格局预计仍将趋于宽松。叠加当前北半球新棉集中上市，阶 段性供应压力增加，而美棉出口签约表现不佳，需求端压力仍存。中长期需关注美棉减产预期的落地情况以及美 棉出口目标的实现情况。国内方面，棉花去库速度持续偏快，商业库存降至同期低位。不过节前籽棉已经陆续开 秤，轧花厂收购心态较为谨慎，前期抢收预期落空，籽棉收购价在6.0-6.2元/公斤左右，整体套保压力 ...

10月9日，商务部官网悄然更新的文件，让沉睡中的华尔街骤然惊醒。针对中重稀土、超硬材料及锂电池负极等关键物项的出口管制新规，如同精确制导导 弹直插全球产业链心脏。短短24小时后，纳斯达克指数暴跌3.6%，道琼斯指数蒸发逾千点——这场被国际媒体称为"稀土冲击波"的博弈，彻底改写了中美贸 易战的底层剧本。 一、八年隐忍终亮剑：中国首次实施"战略元素长臂管辖" 当美国沉迷于芯片断供的制裁快感时，中国悄然亮出了真正的"战略核选项"。此次管制最致命之处在于突破地理边界限制：无论稀土在智利矿山开采，还是 在韩国工厂加工，只要涉及中国技术或原材料，流向美国前必须获得中方许可。 数据揭示其杀伤力根源：全球93%的稀土磁体、90%的分离提纯产能牢牢掌控在中国手中。正如麻省理工学院供应链专家托马斯·凯丁所言："中国并非垄断 矿产，而是垄断了将矿石变为战略物资的'转化密码'。" 这记对标美国芯片管制的精准反制，让ASML光刻机、台积电晶圆厂等西方科技图腾瞬间暴露在断 供风险下。 特朗普在Truth Social上的失态咆哮，暴露出美方的致命误判。10月7日，美国"对华战略竞争特设委员会"刚抛出半导体制裁九项新规，三天后中国立即以稀 ...

黄金闪崩跳水，一路狂跌超110美金后。昨天止跌调整后，多头再次上演绝地反击，大幅反弹75美金， 强势归来，再战历史新高。 昨天我们4002附近，再次空获利。 下周的走势 昨天，黄金止跌修正后。 没有延续大空，反而多头上破。 一度涨破了4000的关口，而且最高触及到了4022的位置强势收盘。 下周继续看反弹延续，上看4058的前高。 再次突破，上方新高不猜顶，而且看到4100的关口。 当然了，下方或存在调整的机会。 先看4000的关口，此位置上方持续调整。 不过高位洗盘，下方再跌穿4000的关口。 下方回调，继续看到3955的支撑。 黄金开年连涨4个月后，到8月收官，持续了4个月的横盘震荡格局，终于突破了。而且到本月，迎来2个 月连涨，上演单边涨势，2个月更是600美金涨幅。年内涨幅超1400美金，本周高位洗盘，再次破高，不 猜顶。同时，下方再次大幅回调，可看到3900的关口。 昨天主要因素： 一方面，特朗普丢诺贝尔奖，一怒之下就是关税，这次对华关税升级，可谓力度之大，或重返4月份全 面关税水平，11月1日或100%的关税，还没等12小时，迎来中方全面反制，中美贸易战再度开打，美股 汇双杀，恐慌情绪升级，利好黄 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent market fluctuations driven by retail investor sentiment and the impact of a new round of global "black swan" events, particularly focusing on the escalation of the US-China trade conflict and its implications for the market [3][4]. Market Performance - In the last two weeks, the CSI 300 index increased by 1.47%, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.80%, and the CSI 500 index saw a gain of 2.17% [3]. - The market was primarily influenced by retail investor sentiment, leading to a temporary surge before facing a significant downturn due to external shocks [3]. Trade Conflict Analysis - The article highlights China's proactive response to the US's intensified trade conflict, particularly in the semiconductor and rare earth sectors [4]. - The announcement by Trump on October 10 to impose further tariffs on China triggered a global market sell-off, including a notable drop in the A50 index and significant declines in cryptocurrency markets [4]. Technical Analysis - The article notes a successful early warning for reducing positions, which helped avoid losses during the April 7 market crash [5]. - Despite recent highs in the market, institutional and speculative investors are maintaining a cautious stance, while retail investors continue to drive prices upward, leading to potential market reversals [5]. Investment Strategy - The recommendation is to maintain a low position in the main board and small-cap sectors, emphasizing a focus on avoiding risks in the current market environment [2][6]. - The prevailing market style is identified as large-cap dominant, with no specific sectors recommended for short-term momentum [6].