Group 1 - In January, the manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) decreased to 49.3%, indicating a decline in economic sentiment [1] - The non-manufacturing business activity index fell to 49.4%, reflecting a decrease in overall economic activity [1] - The comprehensive PMI output index also dropped to 49.8%, showing a general downturn in economic conditions [1] Group 2 - The decline in manufacturing PMI is attributed to seasonal factors, as many industries enter a traditional off-peak period in January [2] - The PMI index is affected by a high base effect from December 2025, which saw a significant increase, thus impacting January's figures [2] - Weak internal investment and consumption demand, along with high external uncertainties, are major factors dragging down the manufacturing sector [2] Group 3 - The raw material purchase price index rose to 56.1%, while the factory price index increased to 50.6%, marking the first time in nearly 20 months that the factory price index exceeded the critical point [3] - The difference between the raw material purchase price index and the factory price index indicates a transfer of profits upstream [3] - Recent structural policies aimed at supporting small and medium enterprises and technology firms are expected to take time to positively impact the manufacturing sector [3] Group 4 - The non-manufacturing business activity index's decline is influenced by the downturn in industries such as construction, with the index falling to 49.4% [4] - The real estate sector's business activity index dropped below 40.0%, indicating a weak overall sentiment in that industry [4] - Financial services and capital market services showed higher activity levels, with indices above 65.0%, reflecting a more active market [4] Group 5 - The overall macroeconomic sentiment is declining due to seasonal fluctuations, high previous month bases, and insufficient effective demand from the real estate market [5] - The manufacturing production index is expected to decline significantly in February due to the extended Spring Festival holiday [5] - Future manufacturing sentiment will be influenced by export growth, real estate market trends, and the timing and intensity of growth-stimulating policies [5]

Report Industry Investment Rating No information regarding the report's industry investment rating is provided in the content. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Mid - term, long - term interest rates may be similar to the early 2021 period, oscillating at the peak, but there are still some constraints for a smooth short - term decline. In January, the 10Y Treasury yield initially reached 1.90% and then dropped to 1.81% at the end of the month, reaching the lower limit of the 1.8% - 1.9% oscillation range. Currently, the expectation of broad - based monetary policy is relatively insufficient, making it difficult to support the yield to break downward. In February, with the large - scale supply of local bonds, the 10Y Treasury yield may return to the central position of the oscillation range. Investment strategies suggest focusing on two structural opportunities: the allocation opportunities of 5Y policy - financial bonds and 3 - 5Y general - credit bonds due to the concentrated maturity of amortized - cost - method bond funds; and the opportunities for spread compression under the background of the central bank supporting reasonable and sufficient liquidity, such as the spread between 10Y China Development Bank bonds and 10Y Treasury bonds [1][24]. Summary by Directory 2 - Month Bond Market Outlook: Similarities and Differences between 2026 and 2021 - **Fundamentals**: In 2021, the credit cycle weakened and the real - estate market peaked and declined. In 2026, the credit cycle may decline moderately, and the real - estate market may still be at the bottom - grinding stage. In 2021, factors such as the "Three Red Lines" and "Two Concentration Limits on Mortgage Loans" in the real - estate industry and repeated outbreaks of the epidemic led to a contraction in real - estate financing, causing a rapid decline in the credit and real - estate cycles. In 2026, the real - estate market is still at the bottom - grinding stage during the transformation of old and new driving forces, and the credit cycle may decline relatively moderately with the support of monetary and fiscal policies [1][8]. - **Fiscal Policy and Local Bond Supply**: After the withdrawal of extraordinary policies, the broad - based deficit ratio may decline marginally. Compared with 2021, the current local bond supply is front - loaded and has a longer term. In 2021, fiscal efforts were back - loaded and the term was shortened, while in 2026, fiscal policy continues to be "actively front - loaded" with a relatively long - term [12]. - **Monetary Policy and Capital Market**: In both 2021 and 2026, the expectation of broad - based monetary aggregate policies declined. However, in early 2026, liquidity was relatively abundant, while in early 2021, the capital market was tight. In 2021, there was no interest - rate cut throughout the year, and the policy intensity weakened significantly compared with 2020. In early 2026, there was a 25BP structural interest - rate cut and an over - amount renewal of MLF to provide liquidity support [18]. - **Equity Market and Institutional Behavior**: Against the backdrop of a booming equity market, funds flowed into the stock market. Compared with 2021 when insurance and funds had a greater demand for bonds, in 2026, factors such as the entry of insurance funds into the market and the lack of comparative advantages of pure bonds may limit the demand support for bonds [21]. January Bond Market Review Bond Market Trend Review - **First Week**: The 10Y Treasury interest rate rose 3bp to 1.88%. At the beginning of the year, affected by supply shocks and the A - share market's good start, the yield first rose and then fell, reaching a peak and then declining. Later in the week, as negative factors were initially released, market sentiment improved marginally, and the ultra - long - term bonds returned to around 2.3% [26]. - **Second Week**: The 10Y Treasury interest rate dropped 4bp to 1.84%. In the second week, under the combined effect of equity market adjustments, policy games, and capital - market fluctuations, the bond market oscillated and recovered with increased volatility. After the central bank's over - amount renewal of repurchase agreements and the implementation of structural tool interest - rate cuts, the capital - market tension gradually eased. The adjustment policy of the exchange margin ratio for margin trading triggered risk - aversion trading in the equity market, and the bond market started a smooth upward trend [29]. - **Third Week**: The 10Y Treasury interest rate dropped 1bp to 1.83%. In the third week, with the central bank's support, the capital - market pressure was relatively controllable. As the equity market's upward trend slowed down, the bond market recovered. With the cooling of the equity market and the fermentation of external risk - aversion signals, the bullish sentiment in the bond market was boosted, and ultra - long - term bonds had a strong performance. At the end of the week, the central bank's over - amount renewal of MLF and the mention of "there is still some room for reserve - requirement ratio cuts and interest - rate cuts this year" by the governor increased the market's expectation of an MLF interest - rate cut, and the bullish force in the bond market was strong [29]. - **Fourth Week**: The 10Y Treasury interest rate dropped 2bp to 1.81%. Near the end of the month, with a quiet market news environment, the stock - bond seesaw effect was strengthened, and the short - and long - term bond varieties showed different trends. At the beginning of the week, with tight capital, the short - term yield weakened, and the ultra - long - term bonds performed strongly, flattening the yield curve. Later, as the central bank's capital support took effect, the cross - month capital market was moderately loose. The medium - and short - term bonds strengthened overall, while the ultra - long - term bonds weakened under the influence of profit - taking sentiment and supply concerns, making the yield curve steeper [30]. Capital Market - The central bank net - injected 967.8 billion yuan through four major tools. At the beginning of the month, due to a large supply of bonds, capital prices gradually increased. In the middle of the month, affected by the reserve - requirement payment day and the deferred repurchase agreement, the capital market tightened. On the evening of January 14, the central bank announced an over - amount renewal of 90 billion yuan in repurchase agreements, with a net injection of 30 billion yuan this month, and the capital market gradually loosened. At the end of the month, facing the tax - payment period, capital prices increased again, and the central bank net - injected 7 - day funds to support liquidity, but the amount was not large [31]. - In January, capital prices generally increased. The monthly average of R001 increased 5bp to 1.41%, and the monthly average of R007 decreased 2bp to 1.55%. The monthly average of DR001 increased 6bp to 1.34%, and the monthly average of DR007 increased 2bp to 1.51%. The 3M inter - bank certificate of deposit (NCD) issuance rate oscillated in the range and then increased at the end of the month. The FR007 - 1Y swap rate first rose and then fell, and recovered at the end of the month. The 3M national - share bank bill rate first rose, then fell, and then recovered. As of January 30, the 3M national - share bank bill rate was 1.45%, and the monthly average from January 4 to 30 increased month - on - month and decreased year - on - year [33]. Secondary Market Trends - In January, yields first rose and then fell. Except for 3m, 3y, 20y, and 30y, the Treasury interest rates of other key tenors declined. Except for 5y - 3y, 7y - 5y, and 50y - 30y, the term spreads of other key tenors of Treasury bonds widened. As of January 30, the yields of 7y and 5y Treasury bonds decreased 6bp and 5bp respectively compared with December 31, reaching 1.68% and 1.58%, with relatively large declines. The term spreads of 30y - 10y and 3y - 1y widened 6bp compared with December 31, reaching 48bp and 10bp respectively, with relatively large widening amplitudes [42]. - In January 2026, the spread between new and old 10Y Treasury bonds first widened and then narrowed, the negative spread between new and old 10Y China Development Bank bonds narrowed, and the spread between the second - active and active 30Y Treasury bonds first rose and then fell [44]. Bond Market Sentiment - In January 2026, the inter - bank leverage ratio first rose and then fell, the spread between 30Y and 10Y Treasury bonds continued to widen, and the duration of bond funds first increased and then decreased within the month. The weekly average turnover rate of 30Y Treasury bonds in January 2026 increased slightly compared with December 2025. Compared with December 31, 2025, the spread between 50Y and 30Y Treasury bonds narrowed 2.9bp, and the spread between 30Y and 10Y Treasury bonds widened 5.8bp on January 30, 2026. The inter - bank leverage ratio rose to 108.2% at the beginning of January and fell to 107.4% at the end of the month, and the exchange leverage ratio continued to decline and fell to 123.0% at the end of the month. Compared with December 31, 2025, the median duration of the full - sample bond funds remained basically the same on January 30, 2026, and the median duration of interest - rate bond funds decreased by 0.04 years. The implied tax rate of 10Y China Development Bank bonds widened in January 2026 compared with December 2025 [50]. Bond Supply - In January 2026, the net financing amount of interest - rate bonds increased compared with December 2025 and January 2025. As of January 31, 2026, the net financing amount of interest - rate bonds in January 2026 was 133.12 billion yuan, an increase of 85.24 billion yuan compared with December 2025 and an increase of 29.77 billion yuan compared with the same period in 2025. The net financing amounts of Treasury bonds, local government bonds, and policy - financial bonds all increased month - on - month [54]. - In January 2026, the issuance scale of Treasury bonds decreased month - on - month but increased year - on - year. From January 1 to January 31, 2026, a total of 13 Treasury bonds were issued, with a total issuance scale of 121.7 billion yuan, a decrease of 60.41 billion yuan compared with December 2025 and an increase of 19.85 billion yuan compared with January 2025, of which the proportion of those with a term of 1 year or less was 29%. On January 14, a new 30Y coupon - bearing Treasury bond 260002.IB was issued, with an issuance scale of 3.2 billion yuan and an issuance interest rate of 2.38%. On February 6, this 30Y coupon - bearing Treasury bond will be re - issued with 3.2 billion yuan [57]. - In January 2026, the issuance scale of local government bonds increased both month - on - month and year - on - year, and the issuance scale of local bonds will be large next week. From January 1 to January 31, 2026, 27 policy - financial bonds were issued, with an issuance scale of 69.28 billion yuan, an increase of 45.88 billion yuan compared with December 2025 and an increase of 12.58 billion yuan compared with the same period in 2025. 135 local government bonds were issued, with an issuance scale of 86.33 billion yuan, an increase of 57.96 billion yuan compared with December 2025 and an increase of 30.58 billion yuan compared with the same period in 2025. According to iFinD data as of January 31, 2026, it is planned to issue 57.97 billion yuan in local bonds from February 2 to February 6 [59]. - In January 2026, the net repayment amount of inter - bank certificates of deposit (NCDs) increased, and the monthly issuance interest rate decreased. The total issuance amount of inter - bank NCDs in January 2026 was 169.34 billion yuan, a decrease of 143.57 billion yuan compared with December 2025. The total repayment amount was 231.62 billion yuan, and the net repayment amount was 62.28 billion yuan, an increase of 4.52 billion yuan month - on - month. The average issuance interest rate of NCDs in January 2026 was 1.62%, a decrease of 2.4bp compared with December 2025 [60]. Economic Data - In January, the manufacturing PMI returned to the contraction range. On January 31, data from the National Bureau of Statistics showed that China's manufacturing PMI in January was 49.3%, the previous value was 50.1%; the non - manufacturing PMI was 49.4%, the previous value was 50.2%; the comprehensive manufacturing PMI was 49.8%, the previous value was 50.7% [63]. - Since January, second - hand housing transactions have recovered, and industrial production has weakened marginally. In terms of real - estate, the monthly average of the transaction area of commercial housing in 30 cities turned negative month - on - month but the year - on - year decline narrowed. The monthly average of the transaction area of second - hand housing in 13 cities turned positive month - on - month and the year - on - year decline narrowed. The monthly average of the land transaction area in 100 cities turned negative month - on - month and the year - on - year decline widened. In terms of consumption, movie monthly consumption was weak both month - on - month and year - on - year, travel increased month - on - month, and subway passenger volume was stronger than the seasonal level. In terms of exports, the monthly port throughput increased year - on - year, and the freight rate index continued to decline year - on - year. Industrial production weakened marginally. The monthly average of daily coal consumption in power plants increased both month - on - month and year - on - year. The monthly average of the PTA and semi - steel tire operating rates increased month - on - month, while the operating rates of other indicators decreased month - on - month [63][65]. - The high - frequency infrastructure and price data in January showed that inventory indicators increased both month - on - month and year - on - year, and the prices of crude oil and asphalt increased significantly. In terms of infrastructure high - frequency data, the monthly average of the mill operating rate decreased month - on - month but increased year - on - year, and the monthly average of the asphalt operating rate decreased both month - on - month and year - on - year. The monthly average of rebar inventory increased both month - on - month and year - on - year. Among price indicators, the monthly average of cement and vegetable price indicators decreased month - on - month, while the monthly average of other price indicators increased month - on - month [66]. Overseas Bond Market - The Federal Reserve announced to keep interest rates unchanged. On January 28, the Federal Reserve ended its two - day monetary policy meeting and announced to keep the target range of the federal funds rate unchanged between 3.5% and 3.75%, which was in line with market expectations. The Federal Open Market Committee stated that existing indicators showed that the US economic activity was expanding steadily, but the uncertainty of the economic outlook remained high. Employment growth was persistently low, the unemployment rate showed some signs of stabilizing, and inflation remained at a relatively high level. Among the 12 members of the Federal Open Market Committee, 10 supported the monetary policy decision, and 2 members, Stephen Milan and Christopher Waller, voted against it, advocating a 25 - basis - point interest - rate cut [71]. - The US PPI increase in December exceeded expectations. On January 30, data released by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics showed that the US PPI in December increased 3% year - on - year, with an expected increase of 2.8% and a previous value of 3%; it increased 0.5% month - on - month, with an expected increase of 0.2% and a previous value of 0.2%. The core PPI in December increased 3.3% year - on - year, with an expected increase of 2.9% and a previous value of 3%; it increased 0.7% month - on - month, with an expected increase of 0.2% and a previous value of 0% [71]. - Trump nominated Kevin Warsh as the next chairman of the Federal Reserve. On January 30, US President Trump nominated former Federal Reserve governor Kevin Warsh as the next chairman of the Federal Reserve, and this nomination needs to be approved by the Senate. Warsh joined the Federal Reserve in 2006 and was the youngest Federal Reserve governor at that time. In terms of monetary policy, he had a somewhat hawkish stance in the past and emphasized fiscal discipline and a more cautious attitude towards interest - rate cuts [72]. -

证券研究报告 宏观 广义财政支出降幅有所收窄 ——12 月财政数据点评 2026 年 1 月 30 日│中国内地 动态点评 12 月广义财政支出同比降幅继续收窄，而修正后的广义财政支出（季调后） 环比增长略有放缓，显示高基数下 12 月广义财政支出力度偏紧、广义财政自 去年 9 月起或为支持今年经济增长"开门红"留有一定资金储备。具体看，12 月广义财政（一般公共预算+政府性基金）支出同比降幅较 11 月的 1.7%继续 收窄至 0.7%，剔除注资特别国债和用于化债的"特殊专项债"后同比降幅亦较 11 月的 3.8%收窄至 0.8%；然而，修正后的（季调后）广义财政支出环比增 长从 11 月的 33.8%放缓至 10.9%、可能反映高基数下 12 月广义财政支出力 度偏紧、广义财政自去年 9 月起或为支持今年经济增长"开门红"留有一定资金 储备（参见《财政能否助力"开门红"?》，2025/12/28）。具体看， ▪ 支出端而言， 12 月广义财政支出同比降幅边际收窄，而季调后剔除 注资特别国债和"特殊"专项债的广义财政支出增长环比有所放缓。12 月广义财政（一般公共预算+政府性基金）支出同比降幅较 11月的 ...

[Table_Page] 宏观经济研究报告 2026 年 2 月 1 日 证券研究报告 财政：12 月收支变化与 2026 年开年预期 | [Table 分析师： | 吴棋滢 | | --- | --- | | _Author] | SAC 执证号：S0260519080003 | | | SFC CE.no: BQN213 | | | 021-38003588 | | | wuqiying@gf.com.cn | [Table_Summary] 报告摘要： 2025 年 12 月财政收入单月变化幅度较大（同比-25.0%），我们理解基数是主要原因。2024 年"924"后为完 成预算任务"安排有关中央单位上缴一部分专项收益"，带动中央财政收入走高（2024 年 12 月同比 40.4%）， 高基数之下 2025 年同期同比只有-50.3%；地方财政收入受基数影响相对较小，与前值的同比 4.1%大致持平。 根据财政部数据，2025 年 12 月一般公共预算收入同比-25.0%（前值-0.02%）；其中税收收入同比-11.5%（前 值 2.8%）、非税收入同比-47.9%（前值-10.8%）；中央一般公共预算收 ...

Revenue and Expenditure Trends - In December 2025, national general public budget revenue decreased by 25% year-on-year, compared to a previous value of -0.02%[3] - The total revenue for the national general public budget in 2025 was 216,045 billion yuan, a decline of 1.7% from 2024[3] - The expenditure growth rate for the national general public budget in December 2025 was -1.77%, an improvement from -3.7% previously[6] Tax Revenue Insights - In December 2025, tax revenue was 11,549 billion yuan, with a year-on-year decline of 11.5%, while the total tax revenue for 2025 grew by 0.8%[3] - Personal income tax showed a significant increase of 11.5% in 2025, indicating strong growth despite overall tax revenue challenges[4] - Non-tax revenue fell by 47.9% in December 2025, primarily due to a high base effect from 2024[3] Fiscal Policy and Economic Outlook - The broad fiscal budget (general public budget + government fund budget) showed a widening deficit, with December revenue growth slowing more than expenditure growth[2] - The first three accounts showed a surplus of 590 billion yuan, mainly driven by a significant increase in central state-owned capital operating budget revenue, which grew by 25.8%[11] - New policy financial tools and special bonds are expected to support economic growth in Q1 2026, particularly in fixed asset investment and consumption[2] Expenditure Focus - Social security and employment expenditures exceeded 100% of the initial budget, while agricultural and forestry expenditures lagged at 86.7%[7] - Total national general public budget expenditure for 2025 was 287,395 billion yuan, reflecting a 1% increase from 2024[6] - Central government expenditure grew by 5.7%, outpacing local government expenditure growth of 0.2%[6]

证券研究报告 | 宏观点评报告 2026 年 1 月 31 日 如何看 2025 年财政数据与 2026 年一季度财政节奏？ 风险提示：数据测算有误差；政策实施节奏可能有变化。 点评报告 频率：每月 相关报告 1、《美联储的缄默法则——1 月美联储议息会议点评》2026- 01-29 2、《企业利润延续修复——— 2025 年 12 月工业企业利润分 析》2026-01-27 3、《通胀回归或为年内核心主 线———宏观与大类资产周 报》2026-01-25 张静静 S1090522050003 zhangjingjing@cmschina.com.cn 张玉书 研究助理 zhangyushu@cmschina.com.cn 敬请阅读末页的重要说明 一般公共预算方面：1）2025 年 12 月一般公共预算收入增速大幅回落， 税收与非税收入增速同步出现较大幅度下降。12 月一般公共预算收入当 月同比-25.0%（11 月为-0.0%），非税收入增速下降受去年同期高基数影 响，而税收收入增速下降主要与四季度经济增速快速下行有关。2）2025 年 12 月一般公共预算支出增速小幅回升，财政支出力度较 10-11 月略 ...

非税高基数扰动：狭义收入回落 [Table_Authors] 侯欢(分析师) ——2025 年 12 月财政数据点评 本报告导读： 12 月，非税高基数扰动下，狭义收入增速回落。支出端有保有压，凸显 "保障重点"、"提质增效"政策取向。展望 2026 年，总体支出力度"只 增不减"、重点领域保障"只强不弱"，节奏有望前置。 投资要点： 风险提示：房地产需求有待提振。 宏观研究 /[Table_Date] 2026.01.31 | | 021-23185643 | | --- | --- | | | houhuan@gtht.com | | 登记编号 | S0880525040074 | | | 梁中华(分析师) | | | 021-23219820 | | | liangzhonghua@gtht.com | | 登记编号 | S0880525040019 | [Table_Report] 相关报告 报 证 券 研 究 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 宏 观 研 究 宏 观 快 结构性宽松继续 2026.01.15 M2 增速反弹：哪些驱动力 2026.01.15 美国通胀：延续温和 2026.01.14 ...

Core Viewpoint - The 2025 fiscal revenue and expenditure report indicates a decline in general public budget revenue by 1.7% year-on-year, while expenditure shows a modest increase of 1%, reflecting a focus on social welfare and key sectors such as education and health [1][5]. Revenue Summary - In 2025, the total general public budget revenue reached 21,604.5 billion yuan, a decrease of 1.7% compared to the previous year [2]. - Tax revenue amounted to 17,636.3 billion yuan, showing a growth of 0.8%, while non-tax revenue fell by 11.3% to 3,968.2 billion yuan [2]. - Central government revenue decreased by 6.5% to 9,396.3 billion yuan, whereas local government revenue increased by 2.4% to 12,208.2 billion yuan [2]. - Key tax categories showed resilience, with domestic value-added tax growing by 3.4%, corporate income tax by 1%, and personal income tax by 11.5% [3]. Expenditure Summary - Total general public budget expenditure for 2025 was 28,739.5 billion yuan, reflecting a 1% increase year-on-year [5]. - Central government expenditure rose by 5.7% to 43,034 billion yuan, while local government expenditure saw a slight increase of 0.2% to 244,361 billion yuan [5]. - Significant increases in spending were noted in social security and employment (6.7%), education (3.2%), and health (5.7%) [5][6]. - Approximately 100 billion yuan was allocated for childcare subsidies, marking a significant direct financial support initiative for families [6]. Future Outlook - The macroeconomic team at Huatai Securities anticipates a notable increase in fiscal reserves and deposits post-September 2025, which will support a strong start for 2026 [4].

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese government has introduced a series of significant policies aimed at creating a favorable fiscal and financial environment for the start of the 14th Five-Year Plan, with a focus on optimizing existing policies and enhancing support for key sectors and small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) [1][2]. Monetary Policy - The People's Bank of China announced eight policy measures on January 15, which include lowering the interest rates of structural monetary policy tools to reduce the cost of funds for banks, encouraging them to lend at lower rates to key areas such as small and micro enterprises, technological innovation, and green transformation [1]. - The introduction of a dedicated 1 trillion yuan relending facility for private enterprises signals strong governmental support, aiming to improve liquidity for SMEs and stimulate investment and employment [2]. Fiscal Policy - The Ministry of Finance and other departments have launched a loan interest subsidy policy for SMEs, which directly lowers financing costs through fiscal subsidies, targeting small and micro private enterprises and focusing on critical sectors for national industrial chain security [2]. - The personal consumption loan interest subsidy policy has been optimized to enhance consumer spending, particularly through credit card installment plans, which are more accessible than traditional personal loans [3]. Policy Optimization - Future adjustments to the SME loan interest subsidy policy may include extending the duration and increasing the loan limits, as well as expanding the support to include working capital loans in key sectors [4]. - The optimization of policies for service sector loans and personal consumption loans will focus on improving precision in policy design, enhancing execution efficiency, and ensuring coordination among related policies [5]. Collaborative Efforts - The integration of fiscal and monetary policies is emphasized, with fiscal policy acting as a catalyst to lower risks and provide incentives for financial resources to enter specific sectors, while monetary policy ensures that funds are effectively directed to SMEs and consumption [5].

2025年全国一般公共预算收入较上年下降1.7%，主要在于2024年一次性安排中央单位上缴专项收益抬 高基数，税收收入保持小幅正增长。 1月30日，财政部对外发布2025年财政收支数据。 2025年，全国一般公共预算收入实现21.6万亿元，比上年下降1.7%。其中，税收收入约17.6万亿元，增 长0.8%；非税收入3.97万亿元，下降11.3%。 尽管财政收入小幅下降，但是财政支出仍在持续扩张，重点支出得到有效保障。2025年全国一般公共预 算支出28.7万亿元，比上年增长1%。 财政部副部长廖岷表示，2026年财政赤字、债务总规模和支出总量将保持必要水平，确保总体支出力 度"只增不减"、重点领域保障"只强不弱"。把更多的财政资金用在提振消费、"投资于人"、民生保障等 方面，多渠道增加居民收入。 近九成省份财政收入实现正增长 近年来，我国财政收入整体呈现低速增长态势，但是通过加大政府债券规模，财政支出规模依然维持扩 张态势，真金白银支持扩大国内需求，以此来推动经济更好修复。 具体来看，主体税种保持正增长。2025年国内增值税实现6.89万亿元，增长3.4%；国内消费税1.69万亿 元，增长2%；企业所得税4. ...