中辉有色观点 | 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | 黄金 | | 关税未裁决，但美欧近期针锋相对，美联储降息概率反复，其他地缘问题一波三折， | | | 长线持有 | 地缘溢价交易继续，流动性风险偏好尚可。中长期来看，地缘秩序重塑，不确定性 | | ★★ | | 持续存在，央行继续买黄金，长期战略配置价值不变。 | | | | 白银未被征收关税市场情绪有所舒缓，但同时避险交易、交割逼仓、资源品交易预 | | 白银 | 长期持有 | 期持续，短期交易所调保，短期注意节奏控制。长期降息、供需缺口连续 5 年，全 | | ★★ | | 球大财政均对白银长期有利，长期滚动做多逻辑不变。 | | | | 特朗普暂缓重要矿产关税，英伟达数据中心铜需求大幅缩水，美国持续虹吸全球铜 | | 铜 | | | | ★ | 长线持有 | 资源，短期铜高位震荡，建议多单持有，移动止盈落袋，新入场等待充分回调，中 长期对铜依旧看好。 | | | | 宏观多空交织，消费淡季高锌价对需求抑制作用明显，叠加宏观和板块情绪退潮， | | 锌 | 承压回落 | 锌承压回落。企业卖出套保积极布局，锁 ...

周一亚洲交易时段，欧元兑美元在连续四日下探后暂获支撑，交投于1.1630附近。 这一走势的短暂企稳未能掩盖市场多重不确定性——美欧围绕格陵兰岛问题引发的关税摩擦持续升级，叠加美联储降息预期调整带来的美元强弱切换，共同 制约欧元上行。 地缘政治突发变量搅动市场情绪。 欧盟集体强调主权与领土完整不可侵犯，北约的沉默则凸显跨大西洋安全体系内部张力。 美国总统特朗普周六抛出关税威胁，将美欧分歧推向新高度。他明确表态自2月1日起，对丹麦、瑞典、法国、德国等八个反对其购买格陵兰岛提议的欧洲国 家征收10%货物关税，且措施将持续至美国获得格陵兰岛控制权为止。 这一单边行动并非孤立，而是美国对格陵兰岛战略诉求的延续。美国此前已通过任命专属特使、强化军事存在等方式向丹麦及格陵兰岛施压，格陵兰岛自治 政府及各政党则明确反对主权变更，强调"格陵兰人不想成为美国人"。 贸易摩擦引发的风险厌恶情绪限制欧元上行空间。不确定性加剧的市场环境中，资金倾向于流向安全资产，美元避险属性得到强化，间接压制欧元。 欧元区自身经济与政策基本面难以提供足够支撑。欧洲央行此前宣布维持三大关键利率不变，最新预测显示欧元区2026年通胀率为1.9%，略低于2 ...

热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 周一（1月19日）早盘，贵金属走强，现货黄金涨破4680美元/盎司，续创新高。上周黄金震荡高走，其 中伦敦现货黄金周度上涨1.92%。上周末美宣布对格陵兰问题上站到丹麦一边的欧洲国家加征10%关 税，受地缘变局影响，短期黄金震荡偏强。 1月美可能暂停降息，最热美联储主席人选生变。经济数据方面，美国12月CPI同比增长2.7%，持平预 期和前值；核心CPI同比增长2.6%，持平前值，略低于预期的2.7%。美核心通胀水平较预期放缓，这也 为后序美联储降息造势，但从1月降息概率来看维持不变的概率仍较大。美联储内部就后续降息路径继 续产生较大分歧，堪萨斯城联储主席表示目前并没有降息的理由，如果降息，可能会损害抑制通胀的进 展，而且还对劳动力市场无益。消息面，美联储鲍威尔遭美国司法部刑事调查，全球多国央行发布联合 声明，以声援美联储主席鲍威尔，共同回应特朗普政府以司法手段施压央行、威胁其独立性的行动；美 总统称希望哈塞特继续担任白宫顾问，里克·里德尔竞选美联储主席呼声渐起。 地缘政治方面，尽管北约国家派驻军事人员入驻格陵兰岛，但美政府表示并不妨碍美国有关 ...

Report Title - Copper Weekly Report: Short - term Fluctuations Intensify, Long - term Bullish Trend Remains Unchanged [1] Report Author - Researcher: Wang Wei. Futures Practitioner Certificate Number: F03143400. Investment Consulting Qualification Number: Z0022141 [2] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Report Core View - Short - term bullish sentiment has weakened, and the market fluctuates greatly under the influence of funds and sentiment. However, the main bullish logic has not changed, and the long - term upward trend continues. It is recommended to control positions and protect long positions [7] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategy Macro Aspect - US CPI was lower than market expectations, which initially increased market expectations for Fed rate cuts. But Powell's criminal investigation raised concerns about the Fed's independence and hawkish stance. The short - term is hawkish, but the Fed's loose monetary policy will not change [7] Copper Ore - The negotiation of the Mantoverde copper mine incident in Chile was fruitless, and the strike will continue. The 2025 output of Mantoverde is 74,000 tons. Chinese smelters finalized the 2026 copper concentrate long - term processing fee benchmark with Antofagasta at $0/ton and 0 cents/pound. The long - term negotiation is difficult and the progress is slow [7] Scrap Copper - Enterprises are being inspected for the compliance of "reverse invoicing". After New Year's Day, many enterprises need to red - offset some non - compliant amounts. Since Wednesday, new raw material orders of enterprises are mainly invoiced [7] Refined Copper - In December 2025, SMM's Chinese electrolytic copper output was 1.1781 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 75,000 tons (6.8%) and a year - on - year increase of 7.54%. The cumulative output from January to December was 13.4326 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.372 million tons (11.38%). SMM expects the domestic electrolytic copper output in January 2026 to be 1.1636 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 14,500 tons (1.23%) and a year - on - year increase of 156,300 tons (14.78%) [7] Consumption - After the price slightly回调 in the second half of the week, the market's rigid demand procurement increased. Although Nvidia adjusted the data on copper demand in data centers, it has little impact on AI copper consumption. The "14th Five - Year Plan" period's 4 - trillion - yuan fixed - asset investment of the State Grid Corporation provides demand support [7] Spread and Ratio - Before the Spring Festival, the domestic spread will remain in the C structure. After domestic export goods flow into the LME market, the LME's short - term squeeze risk decreases. It is expected that the ratio will deteriorate later, and the domestic export window will remain open [7] 3.2 Domestic and Foreign Price Trends - The report shows the price trends of Shanghai copper futures and LME copper futures in 2023 - 2026, and the price changes under different events such as processing fee decline, tariff investigations, and production plan adjustments [9] 3.3 Copper Fundamental Analysis and Weekly Data Tracking Copper Spot Market - As of January 15, 2026, SMM's national mainstream copper inventory increased by 47,100 tons (17.2%) to 320,900 tons compared with last Thursday, and the total inventory increased by 212,800 tons year - on - year. The domestic bonded - area copper inventory increased by 1,200 tons to 80,000 tons. The LME inventory increased to 144,000 tons [7][16] Copper Concentrate Market - On January 16, 2026, the SMM imported copper concentrate index (weekly) was reported at - $46.53/ton, a decrease of $1.12/ton from the previous period. The port inventory increased to 690,400 physical tons, an increase of 50,000 physical tons from the previous period. In December 2025, China imported 2.704 million tons of copper ore and concentrates, and from January to December, the cumulative import was 30.31 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.9% [32] Scrap Copper Market - As of this Friday, the scrap - refined copper price difference is 3,391 yuan/ton. This week, the operating rate of recycled copper rods was 13.52%, an increase of 0.53 percentage points from last week and a decrease of 9.01 percentage points year - on - year. From January to September 2025, the domestic supply of scrap copper increased by 902,600 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 4.18%. In November 2025, China imported 208,100 tons of scrap copper, a year - on - year increase of 19.99%, and from January to November, the cumulative import was 2.1036 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.63% [44] Blister Copper Market - On January 16, 2026, the average domestic southern blister copper processing fee was 2,000 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week. In October 2025, the blister copper output was 1.0367 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 17.62%. From January to October, the cumulative output was 10.1 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 13.02%. In November 2025, China imported 58,300 tons of anode copper, a month - on - month increase of 5.6% and a year - on - year decrease of 16.47%. From January to November, the cumulative import of anode copper was 692,300 tons, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 15.13% [50] Domestic Copper Supply - In December 2025, SMM's Chinese electrolytic copper output was 1.1781 million tons. SMM expects the domestic electrolytic copper output in January 2026 to be 1.1636 million tons. From January to November 2025, China's refined copper imports totaled 3.0948 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 8.12%, and exports totaled 692,600 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 57.68% [56] Copper Products Operating Rate - On January 15, 2026, the copper rod operating rate increased by 9.65 percentage points to 57.47%, far lower than the 70.46% of the same period last year. The operating rate of recycled copper rods declined again after a rebound. The weekly operating rate of wire and cable decreased by 0.59 percentage points to 55.99%, a decrease of 4.95 percentage points compared with the same period last year [62] Downstream Operating Rate - In December 2025, the operating rate of refined copper rod enterprises was 61.33%. It is expected to be 65.01% in January 2026. The comprehensive operating rate of the enameled wire industry in December was 66.28%, and it is expected to be 66.84% in January. The operating rate of copper cable enterprises in December was 68.89%, and it is expected to rise to 70.77% in January [76] Air - conditioner Consumption - In November 2025, China's household air - conditioner production was 1.0577 million units, a year - on - year decline of 36.7%. The production schedule of household air - conditioners in January 2026 is 1.851 million units, a year - on - year increase of 11% [81] Automobile Consumption - In December 2025, automobile production and sales were 3.296 million and 3.272 million units respectively. In 2025, the production and sales of new energy vehicles were 16.626 million and 16.49 million units respectively. It is predicted that the total automobile sales in 2026 will be 34.75 million units, with new energy vehicle sales expected to reach 19 million units [83] Grid Investment - From January to November 2025, China's grid investment completion was 560.4 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 5.9%. The "14th Five - Year Plan" period's 4 - trillion - yuan fixed - asset investment of the State Grid Corporation provides demand support [86] Real Estate Market - From January to November 2025, the national commercial housing sales area was 787 million square meters, a year - on - year decline of 7.8%. The national housing completion area was 394 million square meters, a year - on - year decline of 18% [93] Overseas Data - In November 2025, the global new energy vehicle sales were 2 million units, a year - on - year increase of 8.53%. From January to November 2025, the new energy vehicle sales in the US were 1.4681 million units, a year - on - year increase of 0.71% [108] Photovoltaic and Wind Power - From January to November 2025, China's new photovoltaic installed capacity was 274.98GW, a year - on - year increase of 68.59GW (33.24%). The new wind power installed capacity from January to November 2025 was 82.5GW, a year - on - year increase of 30.75GW (59.42%) [102] 3.4 Industry News and Macro Data - The US December non - farm payrolls increased by 50,000, less than expected, and the unemployment rate dropped to 4.4%. The Trump administration ordered Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to purchase $200 billion in mortgage - backed securities. The Mantoverde copper mine strike will continue. The US federal prosecutor launched a criminal investigation into Fed Chairman Powell. The Congolese state - owned mining company will directly purchase 100,000 tons of copper from the TFM copper - cobalt mine in 2026. Codelco expects its 2026 copper output to reach 1.344 million tons [109]

Summary of Tungsten Industry Conference Call Industry Overview - The tungsten industry is experiencing significant changes, particularly with companies like Zhongtung High-tech and Xiamen Tungsten facing potential losses due to high external ore procurement ratios before Q4 2025. The civilian sector has been passively accepting price increases without actively engaging in them [1][2]. - The demand for tungsten is expected to rise due to increased activity in the CNC machine tool and excavator sectors, with domestic PMI unexpectedly rebounding to a prosperous range, which historically correlates with improved performance and valuation for tungsten companies [1][2]. Key Points - **Price Dynamics**: Tungsten ore prices surged to approximately 200,000 yuan per ton in Q3 2025, a significant increase from 70,000-80,000 yuan at the beginning of 2024, driven by domestic production declines and strategic stockpiling needs [2]. - **Profit Margins**: The theoretical profit for APT and tungsten carbide powder has risen to 40,000 yuan per ton, a substantial improvement from previous loss-making periods, primarily due to raw material shortages and significant inventory reductions [2]. - **Strategic Stockpiling**: The U.S. plans to invest $2.5 billion in establishing a strategic resilience reserve, prioritizing the acquisition of tungsten and other critical metals, which is expected to significantly boost tungsten demand [1][8]. - **Global Demand Growth**: Global tungsten consumption is projected to grow at 4%-5%, with potential increases nearing 10% due to military demand and rising civilian needs. The supply growth from Chinese enterprises is estimated at around 4%, leading to an expanding supply-demand gap [2][10]. Investment Opportunities - **Civilian Demand**: Historical data indicates that when PMI exceeds 50, tungsten companies experience performance and valuation increases, with hard alloy production potentially growing over 10% [4]. - **Market Sentiment**: The anticipated easing of U.S. interest rates is expected to further stimulate economic recovery, leading to increased inventory buildup in the manufacturing sector, which will benefit tungsten demand [4]. Strategic Applications - **Military and Aerospace**: Tungsten is crucial in strategic stockpiling for applications such as armor-piercing projectiles and aerospace components, with its consumption rate expected to rise significantly during wartime, potentially surpassing gold prices [6][7]. Regulatory Impact - **Export Controls**: China's recent imposition of dual-use item controls on Japan, including tungsten products, is likely to lead other economies to increase overseas procurement, further driving up global tungsten demand and prices [9]. Companies to Watch - Notable companies to monitor in the tungsten sector include Jiaxing International Resources (Hong Kong), Xiamen Property, Zhonggong High-tech, Beijete, and Xinjing Road, which are expected to benefit from the rising price trends and have relatively low valuation levels [11].

| | | Morning session notice 早盘提示 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2026 年 1 月 19 日星期一 联系方式：liuyang18036@greendh.com | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 【行情复盘】 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | COMEX 黄金期货跌 0.49%报 4601.10 美元/盎司，COMEX 白银期货跌 2.60%报 89.94 美元/盎司。沪金下跌 0.13%报 1031.66 元/克，沪银下跌 2.53%报 21998.0 元/千克。 【重要资讯】 1、截至 1 月 16 日，全球最大黄金 ETF--SPDR Gold Trust 持仓较上日大增 10.87 吨，当前持仓量为 1085.67 吨。全球最大白银 ETF--iShares Silver Trust 持仓较 上日增加 11.28 吨，当前持仓量为 16073.06 吨。 2、据 CME"美联储观察"：美联储 1 月降息 25 个基点的概率 5%，维持利率不变的 概率为 ...

Core Insights - The oil and chemical industry prosperity index rose to 100.91 in December 2025, indicating signs of recovery with a month-on-month increase of 3.7 percentage points [2][10] - The sub-indices show significant divergence: the oil and gas extraction sector continues to decline due to low oil prices, while the fuel processing industry benefits from cost advantages, leading to a rebound [2][10] - The chemical raw materials and products manufacturing sector experienced a decline due to reduced downstream purchasing demand, while the rubber, plastic, and other polymer products manufacturing sector saw a recovery through active inventory reduction [2][10] Industry Overview - The oil and gas extraction sector's prosperity index fell to 93.20, a decrease of 3.52 percentage points, entering a cold zone for the first time in four months, reflecting a significant pressure on the industry due to low oil prices [10][15] - The fuel processing industry index surged to 114.45, up 19.77 percentage points, showcasing high volatility driven by alternating cost and demand factors [13][15] - The chemical raw materials and products manufacturing index dropped to 95.62, down 6.75 percentage points, as downstream industries reduced inventory following a peak in demand [13][15] - The rubber, plastic, and other polymer products manufacturing index increased to 100.97, up 7.02 percentage points, due to proactive inventory reduction strategies [14][15] Manufacturing PMI and Economic Signals - China's manufacturing PMI returned to the expansion zone at 50.1% in December 2025, signaling a recovery in manufacturing activity and improved market demand [3][17] - The production index and new orders index both increased, indicating a potential support for the recovery of the petrochemical industry in the coming months [3][17] Federal Reserve Interest Rate Decision - The Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point rate cut to a target range of 3.5% to 3.75% on December 10, 2025, marking the third rate cut of the year [4][18] - The impact of the rate cut varies across the industry, with upstream oil and gas extraction remaining under pressure, while downstream sectors may benefit from lower costs and potential overseas demand recovery [4][18] Market Expectations - In January 2026, the oil and chemical industry is expected to be at a critical intersection of improving macro expectations and industry cycle bottoming, with structural differentiation becoming more pronounced [8][20] - The overall outlook suggests a gradual recovery pattern where downstream sectors may recover before upstream sectors, leading to a structural improvement in the industry [8][20]

Group 1 - The report from Galaxy Securities indicates that the expectation for a short-term interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve has decreased, and global geopolitical uncertainties are increasing, leading to a forecast of narrow fluctuations in the Hong Kong stock market [1] - The technology sector is highlighted as a long-term investment focus, benefiting from multiple positive factors such as price increases in the supply chain, domestic substitution, and accelerated AI applications [1] - The consumer sector is expected to continue benefiting from policy support, with future attention needed on the implementation of policies and improvements in consumer data [1] Group 2 - In the past week, the Hong Kong stock market showed strong performance, with the Hang Seng Index rising by 2.34%, the Hang Seng Tech Index by 2.37%, and the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index by 1.90% [2] - Among the primary industries, nine sectors increased while two decreased, with materials, consumer staples, and information technology leading the gains at 4.31%, 3.91%, and 3.60% respectively [2] - The average daily trading volume on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange was HKD 301.69 billion, an increase of HKD 28.58 billion from the previous week [2] Group 3 - As of January 16, 2026, the PE and PB ratios of the Hang Seng Index were 12.20 times and 1.24 times, respectively, reflecting increases of 0.44% and 0.52% from the previous week [3] - The risk premium for the Hang Seng Index is at 3.95%, which is significantly below the three-year rolling average, indicating a low-risk appetite among investors [3] - The premium index for the Hong Kong-Shanghai Stock Connect has decreased to 120.43, placing it at the 17th percentile level since 2014 [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core View of the Report - Short-term gold prices may fluctuate, but the medium-term bullish logic for gold remains unchanged. In 2026, there is a higher probability of the Fed cutting interest rates twice, which is favorable for gold. Long - term factors such as the continued decline of the global US dollar reserve ratio, the increase in US fiscal deficit, and the expected decline in real interest rates also support gold. It is expected that gold will remain optimistic in the first half of 2026. The report suggests holding gold long - term positions and setting stop - profits in the short - term, and considering buying call options [1][10] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Week - ly View and Strategy Fundamental View - In 2026, the price increases of the London Gold and Shanghai Gold indices were 6.88% and 5.60% respectively; last week, they were 2.36% and 2.57% respectively. - Inflation: CPI reached a high of 9.1% in June 2022 and then declined moderately. PCE also peaked in June 2022. Core CPI and core PCE showed a downward trend. Since September 2024, CPI has been strongly volatile, and core inflation has remained stable. In December 2024, the US core CPI increased by 2.6% year - on - year, the slowest growth rate since early 2021, which is conducive to the Fed's interest rate cut. - Interest rates: The interest rate of US medium - term treasury bonds has been declining since mid - to - late October 2023 until January this year. After wide - range fluctuations in 2024, the treasury bond yield continued to decline in 2025 and fluctuated around the lowest point since 2023, with short - term stabilization or rebound. - Supply and demand: In 2024, the global gold supply and demand were loose, mainly due to the increase in inventory. Central bank gold purchases remained above 1000 tons. In 2024, the domestic gold supply and demand were in a tight balance, with a slight increase in supply. Demand showed a structural change, with a decline in jewelry demand and a significant increase in demand for gold bars, coins, and investment. In 2025, global and domestic investment demand increased significantly, and investment demand remained strong in the third quarter, exceeding the whole of last year in the first three quarters. Due to the new gold tax policy, the domestic physical gold market may be greatly affected, and domestic gold jewelry demand may continue to decline in 2026. - US economy: In December, the number of non - farm payrolls increased by 50,000, lower than the expected 60,000, but the unemployment rate unexpectedly dropped to 4.4%, lower than the expected 4.5%. The November data was revised downward by 8,000 to an increase of 56,000. In December 2025, the average hourly wage of US non - farm employees increased by 0.10% year - on - year, continuing to decline by 0.19% from the previous month [6] Strategy View and Outlook - Outlook: The main gold futures contract was volatile at a high level last Friday. Due to the rapid changes in geopolitical conflicts, short - term fluctuations may occur, but the medium - term bullish logic for gold remains unchanged. The lawsuit against the Fed chairman reflects US political turmoil and a stronger expectation of interest rate cuts in 2026, which is favorable for gold. Continue to pay attention to non - farm payroll data and changes in the Fed's interest rate cut expectations. From the December Fed meeting, the probability of two interest rate cuts in 2026 has increased, which is a dovish interest rate cut and favorable for gold. The market expects the new Fed chairman to be dovish, so interest rate cuts in 2026 are likely to meet expectations. In the long - term, the global US dollar reserve ratio continued to decline in the second quarter, the US fiscal deficit continued to increase, and de - dollarization is ongoing, which is favorable for gold's monetary attribute. In terms of financial attributes, it is expected that the real interest rate will continue to decline in 2026, which is also a positive factor for gold in the medium - term. For the commodity attribute, due to the new gold tax policy, the domestic physical gold demand may be greatly affected, and gold jewelry demand may continue to decline in 2026. It is necessary to pay attention to whether central bank gold purchases and investment demand can make up for the decline in jewelry demand. In summary, the long - term positive factors for gold still exist, so gold is expected to remain optimistic in the first half of 2026. - Operation suggestions: Hold gold long - term positions and set stop - profits in the short - term. Consider buying call options [10] 2. Spot and Futures Market - Last week, gold prices fluctuated upwards. In 2026, the price increases of the London Gold and Shanghai Gold indices were 6.88% and 5.60% respectively; last week, they were 2.36% and 2.57% respectively [22][28] 3. Inflation - CPI reached a high of 9.1% in June 2022 and then declined moderately. PCE also peaked in June 2022. Core CPI and core PCE showed a downward trend. Since September 2024, CPI has been strongly volatile, and core inflation has remained stable. In December 2024, the US core CPI increased by 2.6% year - on - year, the slowest growth rate since early 2021, which is conducive to the Fed's interest rate cut [32] 4. Interest Rates - The interest rate of US medium - term treasury bonds has been declining since mid - to - late October 2023 until January this year. After wide - range fluctuations in 2024, the treasury bond yield continued to decline in 2025 and fluctuated around the lowest point since 2023, with short - term stabilization or rebound. In November, inflation dropped significantly, and the real interest rate increased [37][41] 5. US Economy - In the third quarter, the US GDP increased by 2.33% year - on - year, up from 2.08% in the second quarter. In December 2025, the US ISM manufacturing PMI was 47.9, continuing to decline by 0.3%; the non - manufacturing PMI was 54.4, showing continuous strength. In December, the number of non - farm payrolls increased by 50,000, lower than the expected 60,000, but the unemployment rate unexpectedly dropped to 4.4%, lower than the expected 4.5%. The November data was revised downward by 8,000 to an increase of 56,000. In December 2025, the average hourly wage of US non - farm employees increased by 0.10% year - on - year, continuing to decline by 0.19% from the previous month [44][48] 6. Gold Supply and Demand Balance Sheet - When the gold supply and demand are in a tight balance, it helps the gold price rise, but when in a weak balance, it has little impact on the gold price. In 2024, the global gold supply and demand were loose, mainly due to the increase in inventory. Central bank gold purchases remained above 1000 tons. In 2024, the domestic gold supply and demand were in a tight balance, with a slight increase in supply. Demand showed a structural change, with a decline in jewelry demand and a significant increase in demand for gold bars, coins, and investment. In 2025, global and domestic investment demand increased significantly, and investment demand remained strong in the third quarter, exceeding the whole of last year in the first three quarters. Due to the new gold tax policy, the domestic physical gold market may be greatly affected, and domestic gold jewelry demand may continue to decline in 2026. In the third quarter of 2025, global central bank gold purchases were 219.85 tons; in the second quarter, they were 172.02 tons; in the first quarter, they were 248.57 tons. Since November 2022, the Chinese central bank has continuously purchased gold. In 2023, it purchased 224.88 tons; since 2024, it has purchased 44.17 tons. In 2025, the Chinese central bank purchased 26.74 tons. In terms of ETF demand, in 2023, the gold holding decreased by 113.69 tons; in 2024, it decreased by 28.46 tons; in 2025, it increased by 294.73 tons; in 2026, it decreased by 7.2 tons [54][57][60] 7. Exchange Rate and US Dollar Index - Not elaborated in detail in the given content, only relevant charts are mentioned 8. Gold Domestic - Foreign Price Difference - Only mentioned the reasonable range of the price difference between domestic and foreign gold markets, no specific data 9. Gold Basis - Not provided in the given content 10. Gold - Silver - Oil Ratio - Only relevant charts are mentioned, no specific data

Group 1: Macro Economic Indicators - The 10Y US Treasury yield rose by 6.0 basis points to 4.24%, while the dollar index increased by 0.2% to 99.37 [1][16] - The US TGA balance decreased to $777.1 billion as of January 14, with net issuance of US debt falling to -$9.23 million [1][50] - The US fiscal deficit for the calendar year 2025 reached $1.82 trillion, lower than the $1.91 trillion recorded in the same period of 2024 [1] Group 2: Inflation and Consumer Spending - The US core CPI for December was weaker than expected, with a month-on-month increase of 0.2% against a forecast of 0.3% [1][68] - November retail sales in the US rose by 0.6%, surpassing the expected 0.5%, indicating resilience in consumer spending [1][71] Group 3: Market Performance - Major stock indices showed mixed performance, with the S&P 500 down 0.4% and the Nasdaq down 0.7%, while emerging market indices generally rose [2][7] - In the commodities market, Brent crude oil prices increased by 2.9% to $53.76 per barrel, while COMEX gold and silver prices rose by 2.6% and 12.3%, respectively [1][34][41] Group 4: Federal Reserve and Monetary Policy - Market expectations for Kevin Walsh to become the next Federal Reserve Chair have increased significantly following weaker inflation data [1][63] - Federal Reserve officials expressed optimism regarding the US economy and productivity growth, with potential interest rate cuts being pushed to June and December [1][63]