Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China emphasizes the need for a moderately loose monetary policy to support stable economic growth and maintain reasonable price levels amidst a complex external environment and domestic challenges [2][3][4]. Group 1: Monetary Policy Implementation - The meeting highlighted the importance of implementing a moderately loose monetary policy and enhancing counter-cyclical adjustments to better utilize monetary policy tools for both total and structural functions [2][3]. - It was noted that the effectiveness of the loan market quotation rate reform continues to be released, and the market-oriented adjustment mechanism for deposit rates is functioning effectively, leading to enhanced monetary policy transmission efficiency [2][3]. Group 2: Economic and Financial Environment - The current external environment is increasingly complex, with weakening global economic growth, rising trade barriers, and divergent economic performances among major economies, creating uncertainties in inflation trends and monetary policy adjustments [3]. - Despite the positive trends in China's economy, including improved social confidence and solid progress in high-quality development, challenges such as insufficient domestic demand and persistent low prices remain [3]. Group 3: Future Monetary Policy Directions - The meeting proposed increasing the intensity of monetary policy regulation, enhancing its foresight, targeting, and effectiveness, while maintaining ample liquidity and guiding financial institutions to increase credit supply [4]. - It emphasized the need to strengthen the central bank's policy interest rate guidance and improve the market-oriented interest rate formation transmission mechanism [4]. Group 4: Financial Supply-Side Structural Reform - The meeting discussed deepening financial supply-side structural reforms, urging large banks to play a leading role in serving the real economy and supporting small and medium-sized banks in focusing on their core responsibilities [6]. - It was highlighted that effective implementation of various structural monetary policy tools is essential to support key areas such as technological innovation and consumption [6]. Group 5: Policy Coordination and Development Goals - The meeting underscored the importance of adhering to the guiding principles of Xi Jinping's thought and fully implementing the decisions made by the Central Committee, with a focus on high-quality development and the construction of a new development pattern [7]. - It called for a better balance between total supply and demand, enhancing macro policy coordination, and effectively utilizing both existing and new policies to stimulate domestic demand and stabilize expectations [7].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report presents a comprehensive analysis of the economic situation in the current week, covering aspects such as demand, production, investment, trade, prices, and interest - rate bonds. It shows that the real - estate market is still at a low level, while the automotive consumption is warming up. Industrial production is stable, and infrastructure construction starts remain strong. Trade shows an upward trend, but prices of some commodities are falling. The issuance of interest - rate bonds has a certain progress [1][2][3][4][5][6]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Demand: New home sales decline year - on - year, while automotive consumption continues to recover - New home sales: The weekly sales area of commercial housing in 20 cities increased week - on - week but decreased significantly year - on - year, far below the seasonal level. High - tier cities saw a narrowing decline in new home sales year - on - year, while low - tier cities had a larger decline. The sales area of second - hand housing in key cities mostly decreased week - on - week [1][11][27]. - Consumption: The daily average retail and wholesale sales of passenger cars increased significantly week - on - week. Movie consumption was below the seasonal level, and travel performance was divided. The national migration scale index decreased week - on - week, while the subway passenger volume in first - tier cities recovered [1]. 3.2 Production: Industrial production runs smoothly, and infrastructure construction starts remain strong - Mid - and upstream: The blast furnace operating rate in Tangshan remained basically flat, the rebar operating rate increased, the PTA operating rate decreased week - on - week, and the operating rates of polyester filament and petroleum asphalt plants increased week - on - week, indicating a possible marginal improvement in infrastructure construction starts [2][44]. - Downstream: The operating rate of all - steel tires for automobiles continued to rise, while the operating rate of semi - steel tires decreased slightly week - on - week. The absolute value of semi - steel tires was still higher than the same period in previous years. The trade - in subsidy policy may support the production side in the short term [2][44]. 3.3 Investment: The apparent consumption of rebar recovers, and cement prices decline The apparent consumption of rebar improved, and its price decreased week - on - week. The cement shipping rate decreased, the cement storage capacity ratio increased, and the cement price declined [3][59]. 3.4 Trade: Port throughput increases, and export container shipping prices continue to rise - Export: The container throughput of ports increased, and the CCFI composite index rebounded week - on - week. Freight rates on European routes increased, those on the US West Coast routes decreased, and those on Southeast Asian routes remained basically flat. In addition, the BDI index also declined [4][71]. - Import: Container shipping prices increased, and the CICFI composite index rose slightly by 1.2% week - on - week [4][71]. 3.5 Prices: Agricultural product prices are weak, and international crude oil prices decline - CPI: The 200 - index of agricultural product wholesale prices dropped by 0.2% week - on - week. Pork and fruit prices decreased, while egg and vegetable prices rebounded slightly [5][82]. - PPI: Commodity and metal price indices declined. The Nanhua industrial product price index decreased by 0.9% week - on - week, Brent crude oil spot price dropped by 8.2% week - on - week, COMEX gold futures price decreased by 1.8% week - on - week, and LME copper spot price increased by 1.8% week - on - week [5][90]. 3.6 Interest - rate Bond Tracking: The cumulative issuance progress of replacement bonds this year reaches 90% - Next week (June 30 - July 4), the disclosed issuance of interest - rate bonds is 97.1 billion yuan, with a net financing of - 39.5 billion yuan. Among them, the issuance of national bonds is 0 billion yuan, with a net financing of - 80.2 billion yuan; the issuance of local bonds is 72.1 billion yuan, with a net financing of 21.7 billion yuan [6][101]. - As of June 27, the issuance scale of replacement bonds this year is 1.7959 trillion yuan, with a cumulative issuance progress of 89.8%; the issuance of new general bonds is 445.4 billion yuan, with a cumulative issuance progress of 55.7%; the issuance of new special bonds is 2.1127 trillion yuan, with a cumulative issuance progress of 48.0% [6]. - 29 provinces and municipalities directly under the central government have disclosed their local government bond issuance plans for the third quarter of 2025, with a total planned issuance scale of 2.5868 trillion yuan [6][112]. 3.7 Policy Weekly Observation: The central bank's second - quarter regular meeting emphasizes flexible policy implementation - On June 24, the Ministry of Finance stated that the final accounts were generally good and would implement a more proactive fiscal policy [114]. - On June 23, the central bank's policy committee held its second - quarter regular meeting in 2025, suggesting to increase the intensity of monetary policy regulation and flexibly control the intensity and rhythm of policy implementation [115]. - On June 24, six departments including the central bank jointly issued the "Guiding Opinions on Financial Support for Boosting and Expanding Consumption" [116]. - On June 25 (local time), Federal Reserve Chairman Powell said that the Fed is in no hurry to cut interest rates [117]. - On June 25, Guangdong Province implemented policies on off - site provident fund loans and withdrawals for off - site house purchases [118]. - On June 26, Qingdao City optimized and adjusted its housing provident fund loan policy [119].

Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - The macro - economic policy aims to support consumption upgrade, with the third - batch of consumer goods trade - in funds to be issued in July, and a series of financial support measures for consumption [1][11][12] - Fiscal policy emphasizes using proactive policies, implementing incremental policies in a timely manner, and over half of the 500 billion yuan fiscal injection into large banks has been used [2][16][17] - Monetary policy conducts additional operations of repurchase agreements, focuses on non - bank leverage, and continues to pay attention to long - term bond interest rate risks [3][20][21] - Financial regulatory policies include the introduction of risk management measures for banks and restrictions on the dividend levels of insurance [4][24][25] - Real estate policies aim to optimize existing policies and promote the stabilization and recovery of the real estate market [5][29][30] - In terms of tariff policies, China and the US have further confirmed the framework details of the Geneva economic and trade talks [6][34][35] Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. Macro - economic Tone - A military parade will be held on September 3rd to commemorate the 80th anniversary of the victory of the Chinese People's War of Resistance against Japanese Aggression and the World Anti - Fascist War, showcasing new military achievements [10][15] - Six departments including the central bank jointly issued a guiding opinion on financial support for boosting and expanding consumption, with a 500 billion yuan re - loan quota for service consumption and elderly care, and promoting auto loans [11][15] - The suspension of national subsidies in some regions is temporary, and the third - batch of consumer goods trade - in funds will be issued in July, with a more balanced and sequential plan for fund use [12][15] 2. Fiscal Policy - The government will make full use of proactive fiscal policies, implement existing policies effectively, and introduce incremental policies in a timely manner [16] - The 500 billion yuan fiscal injection into large banks has been more than half used, and Bank of Communications and Bank of China have completed over - 100 billion yuan private placements [17][19] - Many local governments have disclosed the progress of using special bonds to clear arrears to enterprises, with a total of 55.6 billion yuan earmarked for "arrears clearance" and about 146.5 billion yuan including "arrears clearance" in the use of special bond funds [17][18][19] 3. Monetary Policy - The central bank carried out additional operations of 6 - month repurchase agreements, with a total net injection of 20 billion yuan in June, and continued a relatively active MLF operation at the end of the month [20][23] - At the Lujiazui Forum, the central bank governor focused on global financial governance and the supervision of non - bank institutions' leverage [20] - The State Administration of Foreign Exchange will issue a new batch of QDII investment quotas [21][22] - The central bank's second - quarter monetary policy meeting suggested increasing the intensity of monetary policy regulation and continued to emphasize long - term bond interest rate risks and preventing capital idling [21][23] 4. Financial Supervision - At the Lujiazui Forum, the chairmen of the CSRC and the financial regulatory authority put forward measures such as setting up a science and technology growth layer on the STAR Market and promoting pilot projects for financial asset investment companies [24][27] - The General Administration of Financial Supervision issued the "Measures for the Market Risk Management of Commercial Banks", and a bank wealth management product participated in offline new - share subscriptions for the first time [25][27][28] - Insurance regulators prohibited the random increase of dividend levels for dividend - paying insurance products, and jointly issued an implementation plan for the high - quality development of inclusive finance in the banking and insurance industries [25][26][28] 5. Real Estate Policy - The State Council executive meeting and the central bank's monetary policy meeting emphasized promoting the stabilization and recovery of the real estate market and increasing the utilization of existing commercial housing and land [29][33] - Five cities including Shenzhen and Meizhou plan to allow cross - regional housing provident fund withdrawals for home purchases by the end of the year, and Hangzhou has launched a service for direct payment of housing down - payments with provident funds [30][33] - Xi'an has implemented a policy of installment payment for land transfer fees, and Shenzhen has allowed the adjustment of a certain proportion of affordable housing to commercial housing [31][33][34] 6. Tariff Policy - China and the US have further confirmed the framework details of the Geneva economic and trade talks. China will approve the export applications of eligible controlled items according to law, and the US will cancel a series of restrictive measures against China [6][34][35]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses various macroeconomic trends and investment strategies, emphasizing the importance of understanding global economic shifts and their implications for investment decisions [3][4]. Group 1: Macroeconomic Analysis - The report highlights the "restructuring of global order" as a significant theme, suggesting that investors should capture trading signals related to this shift [3]. - It notes the contrasting economic styles of Guangdong and Jiangsu, indicating regional differences in economic performance and investment opportunities [3]. - The article analyzes the impact of U.S. tariffs on inflation, presenting five key reflections on how these tariffs influence the economic landscape [3]. Group 2: Financial Data Insights - The report provides insights into industrial profits, indicating that corporate pressures may be transmitted to the asset side, affecting overall financial stability [3]. - It discusses the dual mission of consumption in the economy, reflecting on how consumer behavior influences economic data [3]. - The article examines the reasons behind unexpected increases in economic indicators, particularly focusing on PMI data [3]. Group 3: Policy Tracking - The report tracks fiscal support for the real estate sector, providing insights into government policies aimed at stabilizing this critical industry [4]. - It discusses the expansion of supervisory laws, indicating a broader regulatory environment that may impact investment strategies [4]. - The article emphasizes ongoing reforms and opening-up policies, suggesting that these will continue to shape the investment landscape [4]. Group 4: Annual and Semi-Annual Reports - The report includes projections for 2025, indicating a focus on long-term investment strategies and market outlooks [4]. - It discusses mid-term strategies for 2024, emphasizing the importance of pricing strategies in investment decisions [4]. - The article reflects on the macroeconomic environment of 2023, providing insights into potential growth areas [4].

2025 年 6 月 27 日 股指期货将偏强震荡 白银、铜、铝、锌、工业硅、多晶 硅、碳酸锂、螺纹钢、铁矿石、焦煤、纯碱、PVC 期货将偏 强震荡 原油、燃料油期货将偏弱震荡 陶金峰 期货投资咨询从业资格号：Z0000372 邮箱：taojinfeng@gtht.com 【正文】 【声明】 本报告的观点和信息仅供风险承受能力合适的投资者参考。本报告难以设置访问权限，若给您造成不 便，敬请谅解。若您并非风险承受能力合适的投资者，请勿阅读、订阅或接收任何相关信息。本报告不构 成具体业务或产品的推介，亦不应被视为相应金融衍生品的投资建议。请您根据自身的风险承受能力自行 作出投资决定并自主承担投资风险，不应凭借本内容进行具体操作。 【期货行情前瞻要点】 通过宏观基本面分析和黄金分割线、水平线、日均线等技术面分析，预期今日期货主力合约行情走势大概率如 下： 股指期货将偏强震荡：IF2509 阻力位 3928 和 3964 点，支撑位 3889 和 3872 点；IH2509 阻力位 2728 和 2750 点，支撑位 2697 和 2682 点；IC2509 阻力位 5771 和 5838 点，支撑位 5690 和 ...

客服产品系列•日评 国新国证期货早报 2025 年 6 月 27 日 星期五 品种观点： 【股指期货】 周四（6 月 26 日） A 股三大指数集体回调，截止收盘，沪指跌 0.22%，收报 3448.45 点；深 证成指跌 0.48%，收报 10343.48 点；创业板指跌 0.66%，收报 2114.43 点。沪深两市成交额达到 15832 亿，较昨 日小幅缩量 196 亿。 沪深 300 指数 6 月 26 日回调整理，收盘 3946.02，环比下跌 14.05。 【焦炭 焦煤】6 月 26 日焦炭加权指数震荡趋强，收盘价 1399.0 元，环比上涨 25.3。 6 月 26 日，焦煤加权指数强势，收盘价 826.8 元，环比上涨 27.0。 影响焦炭期货、焦煤期货价格的有关信息： 焦炭：焦炭现货提降，焦企保持小幅亏损，无主动提产动能，高频数据显示焦企开工下滑，供应收缩。需求， 淡季钢厂铁水产量暂时企稳，上周钢联口径铁水产量周环比小幅回升，炉料日耗有支撑。焦炭供应边际下滑，叠 加真实需求有所好转，焦企库存压力缓解。 客服产品系列•日评 月全球天胶产量料降 1.2%至 104 万吨，较上月增加 35.6%； ...

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the global economic outlook, particularly focusing on trade relations, fiscal policies, and the Federal Reserve's monetary policy for the second half of 2025 [1][2][4]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Market Expectations**: There is an expectation that trade relations will ease in the second half of 2025, leading to a recovery in risk assets and an overall improvement in the global economic landscape [1][4]. - **Trade War Dynamics**: The intervention of the judiciary is seen as a turning point, signaling the end of the intense phase of the trade war, which may accelerate trade negotiations between the Trump administration and other countries [4][5]. - **Key Contradictions**: The market will face three main contradictions: the outlook on tariffs, the lagging impact of tariffs on the economy, and interpretations of the Federal Reserve and fiscal policies [2][14]. - **Federal Reserve Actions**: The Federal Reserve is expected to adopt a more accommodative stance, including potential interest rate cuts and halting quantitative tightening, to support the economy [10][14]. Important but Overlooked Content - **Tariff Impact**: Current tariff rates are significantly higher than those in 2018-2019, raising concerns about their negative impact on the economy, which may manifest more clearly in the third quarter of 2025 [7][8]. - **Fiscal Concerns**: While there are ongoing worries about the U.S. fiscal deficit, the actual situation may not be as dire as anticipated, particularly as some deficit components are due to previous tax cuts rather than new spending [11][12]. - **Asset Allocation Recommendations**: It is suggested to overweight equities and commodities in the second half of 2025, as the market is likely to shift towards expectations of economic recovery [15]. Additional Insights - **Gold Performance**: The outlook for gold is less favorable, with expectations of a 10% to 20% pullback due to high current prices and reduced geopolitical tensions [16][17]. - **Currency Trends**: In the context of a global economic recovery, the U.S. dollar is expected to weaken, while the Chinese yuan may remain stable or appreciate, benefiting Chinese assets [18].

Group 1: Service Trade and Economic Policies - Shenzhen is set to gradually relax or eliminate restrictions on service trade under cross-border delivery and overseas consumption models, aiming to enhance the quality of service consumption and expand the openness of the service industry [1] - The Ministry of Finance plans to implement more proactive fiscal policies and introduce incremental reserve policies in response to changing circumstances, focusing on stabilizing employment, enterprises, markets, and expectations to support economic development and social stability [3] Group 2: Financial Operations and Market Liquidity - The People's Bank of China conducted a 300 billion yuan MLF operation to maintain ample liquidity in the banking system, resulting in a net injection of 118 billion yuan for June, marking the fourth consecutive month of increased liquidity [2] Group 3: Industry Developments and Trends - CITIC Securities reports that the price of DDR4 memory has exceeded expectations, with a forecast for continued price increases into Q3 2025, indicating a potential turning point for profitability among storage module manufacturers [5] - The Yangtze River Delta region's foreign trade has surpassed 100 trillion yuan, demonstrating strong resilience and vitality, with a 5.2% year-on-year increase in imports and exports in the first five months of the year [6] - The telecommunications sector reported a total revenue of 748.8 billion yuan in the first five months, reflecting a 1.4% year-on-year growth [7] Group 4: Technological Advancements and Standards - China is leading the development of the world's first international standard system for quantum-resistant network security protocols in the data communication field, with ongoing efforts to establish guidelines and frameworks for secure communication [9] Group 5: Marine Economy Initiatives - Shanghai is planning to introduce the "Shanghai Marine Economy Promotion Regulations" and explore the establishment of a marine industry development group to enhance financial support and optimize the development of the marine industry [10] - The city aims to promote the development of marine intelligent robots and create a product matrix for marine intelligent equipment, focusing on advanced underwater and surface robotic systems [11]

Report Investment Ratings No investment ratings for the industries are provided in the report. Core Views - The overall market shows mixed trends across different sectors. The stock index market has a positive performance, with most indices rising. The bond market is expected to be volatile, with a downward trend in interest rates in the long - term. The commodity market, including metals, energy, and agricultural products, also has various trends influenced by factors such as geopolitical risks, supply - demand relationships, and policy changes. [2][7] - It is recommended to take different trading strategies according to different market conditions, such as buying certain stock index futures on dips, and being cautious in the commodity market with a focus on specific opportunities and risks. [4][5] Summary by Categories Macro - financial - **Stock Index**: The previous trading day saw most indices rising, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 1.04%, the ChiNext Index up 3.11%, etc. The trading volume increased by 188.2 billion yuan. The overseas geopolitical risk has cooled down, and domestic policies are expected to support the economy. It is recommended to buy IH or IF futures on dips and consider IC or IM futures related to "new - quality productivity". [2][4] - **Treasury Bonds**: On Wednesday, most treasury bond futures had a slight decline. The economic data shows some disturbances and structural differentiation. The central bank's liquidity injection maintains a loose attitude, and the bond market is expected to be volatile and strong in the short - term, with a downward trend in interest rates in the long - term. [6][7] - **Precious Metals**: Gold and silver prices rose. The market's expectation of the Fed's loose monetary policy has increased, and the change in the bank regulatory bill is beneficial to silver. It is recommended to buy silver on dips. [8][10] Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The copper price oscillated and rebounded. The overseas geopolitical situation has eased, but the uncertainty of the Fed's interest - rate cut suppresses the sentiment. The copper raw material market is tight, and the low inventory may support the price to rise, but the weakening domestic consumption limits the upside. The price is expected to oscillate and rise, and attention should be paid to the import loss for arbitrage. [12] - **Aluminum**: The aluminum price oscillated. The cost - driving force has weakened, and the demand expectation has improved. The low inventory may push the price up, but the price increase and the off - season effect limit the upside. The price is expected to oscillate in the short - term. [13] - **Zinc**: The zinc price rose slightly. The zinc industry is in the process of converting surplus zinc ore into zinc ingots, with a high expectation of zinc ingot output. However, some factors affect the inventory and production, and the geopolitical situation may affect the zinc ore export. [15] - **Lead**: The lead price rose. The lead acid battery export growth has slowed down, and the downstream consumption is weak. But the high - concentration long - position in the LME lead July contract and the reduction of domestic inventory make the price run relatively strongly, with limited upside for Shanghai lead. [16] - **Nickel**: The nickel price rebounded slightly. The cost of downstream iron plants is under pressure, and the nickel ore price may fall. The nickel iron price is also under pressure, and the refined nickel supply - demand is in an oversupply situation, with a risk of price decline. [17] - **Tin**: The tin price fell slightly. The supply of tin ore is short - term tight, but the terminal demand is in the off - season, and the price is expected to oscillate in a certain range. [18] - **Lithium Carbonate**: The lithium carbonate price fluctuated slightly. The marginal variables in supply, demand, and cost are limited, and it is recommended to operate cautiously. [19] - **Alumina**: The alumina price rose slightly. The alumina production capacity is in an oversupply situation, and the price is expected to be weakly volatile. It is recommended to short on rallies. [20] - **Stainless Steel**: The stainless steel price rose slightly. The market supply exceeds demand, and the demand is weak. The planned production cut by steel mills eases the supply - demand contradiction, but the price is expected to be weakly volatile in the short - term. [21][23] Black Building Materials - **Steel**: The steel price oscillated. The real estate demand is weak, and the market is in the off - season. The terminal demand is weakening, and the market confidence is low. Attention should be paid to policy trends, demand repair, and cost support. [25][26] - **Iron Ore**: The iron ore price was slightly down. The supply has increased, and the demand is relatively stable. The price is in a low - volatility state with support from iron production and pressure from supply. [27][28] - **Glass and Soda Ash**: The glass price is expected to be weakly volatile due to the lack of real - estate demand boost. The soda ash supply is expected to be loose, and the price is also expected to be weakly volatile. [29] - **Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon**: The prices of manganese silicon and ferrosilicon rose. They are still in a downward trend, and the fundamentals point to a downward price. It is not recommended to buy on dips prematurely, and attention should be paid to price fluctuations caused by market sentiment. [30][31][33] - **Industrial Silicon**: The industrial silicon price rebounded. The supply is in an oversupply situation, and the demand is weak. The price may continue to decline, and it is not recommended to buy on dips. [35][36][37] Energy and Chemicals - **Rubber**: The rubber price oscillated. The bulls expect a price increase due to potential production cuts, while the bears are concerned about weak demand. The tire开工率 is rising, and it is recommended to take a neutral approach and focus on short - term operations. [39][40][43] - **Crude Oil**: The crude oil price fell slightly. The geopolitical risk has been released, and the price is in a reasonable range. It is not recommended to short further. [44][45][46] - **Methanol**: The methanol price rose. The market is expected to return to the supply - demand fundamentals, with high domestic supply and potential weakening demand. It is recommended to wait and see. [47] - **Urea**: The urea price rose. The supply is high, and the demand is relatively weak. The price is expected to have no clear trend in the short - term, and it is recommended to wait and see. [48] - **Styrene**: The styrene price is expected to be oscillated and bearish. The cost is relatively stable, the supply is increasing, and the demand is in the off - season. [49] - **PVC**: The PVC price rose. The supply is strong, and the demand is weak. The price is expected to decline steadily under the background of geopolitical easing. [51][52] - **Ethylene Glycol**: The ethylene glycol price fell. The supply is increasing, and the demand is expected to decline. The inventory is accumulating, and it is recommended to short on rallies with caution. [53] - **PTA**: The PTA price rose. The supply is expected to increase after the end of the maintenance season, and the demand is under pressure. It is recommended to look for opportunities to go long following PX. [54] - **Para - xylene**: The PX price fell. The supply and demand are in a dynamic balance, and the price is expected to be volatile. It is recommended to look for opportunities to go long following the decline. [55][56] - **Polyethylene (PE)**: The PE price rose slightly. The supply pressure may ease, and the demand is in the off - season. The price is expected to oscillate. [57] - **Polypropylene (PP)**: The PP price rose slightly. The supply is expected to increase, and the demand is expected to decline seasonally. The price is expected to be bearish in June. [58] Agricultural Products - **Hogs**: The hog price showed mixed trends. The northern region may raise prices, while the southern region has stable supply. It is recommended to go long on near - term contracts at low prices and short on long - term contracts at high prices. [60] - **Eggs**: The egg price mostly fell. The supply is relatively sufficient, and the demand is average. The price is expected to be mostly stable with a few slight declines. It is recommended to short on rallies. [61] - **Soybean and Rapeseed Meal**: The soybean and rapeseed meal prices fell. The domestic soybean meal inventory is increasing, and the supply is relatively sufficient. It is recommended to go long at the low - end of the cost range and pay attention to supply pressure at the high - end. [62][63] - **Oils and Fats**: The oil and fat prices oscillated. The Brazilian biodiesel policy is beneficial, but there are still some negative factors. The price is expected to oscillate. [64][65][66] - **Sugar**: The sugar price rebounded. The Brazilian sugar production is expected to change, and the import profit window is open. The sugar price is expected to decline steadily. [67] - **Cotton**: The cotton price rose. The market is in the off - season, and the high basis affects consumption. The price is expected to oscillate in the short - term. [68]

交易提示 交易咨询：0571-85165192，85058093 2025 年 6 月 26 日星期四 16519 新世纪期货交易提示（2025-6-26） | | | | | 铁矿：本期全球铁矿石发运总量、到港量环比回升，整体处于近年来同期 高位水平，铁矿发运有冲量预期。产业端淡季，五大钢材产量增，铁水止 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | 跌回升，铁矿港口库存仍旧在去库，说明当前 240 的高铁水仍旧能驱动港 | | | 铁矿石 | | 震荡 | 口去库，关注后续铁水持续回落状况。铁矿石整体呈现供应逐步回升、需 | | | | | | 求相对低位、港口库存步入累库通道的局面，铁矿供需过剩格局不变。 唐 | | | | | | 山传出钢铁企业烧结机减产 30%的消息，对原料端需求有下移空间，若 | | | | | | 铁水破 240 万吨，铁矿后期将承压下跌。策略上，前期空单继续持有。 | | | | | | 煤焦：近日主产区环保检查升级，内蒙乌海及临汾地区停产煤矿及洗煤厂 | | | | | | 较多，供应端有所收缩。焦炭方面，随着焦煤价格下跌，焦企入炉 ...