Report Overview - The report is a daily view on the precious metals and non - ferrous metals industry, covering gold, copper, zinc, aluminum, nickel, tin, lithium carbonate, and industrial silicon [2] 1. Precious Metals (Gold) Core View - The Fed's Beige Book's mention of tariff risks suppresses market sentiment, and the rebound of the US dollar index weakens gold's appeal. However, the medium - to - long - term logic remains unchanged, with central bank gold - buying demand and geopolitical uncertainties supporting gold prices [3] Key Points - **Price Influencing Factors**: Tariff risks and the US dollar index affect short - term gold prices, while central bank demand and geopolitics support long - term prices [3] 2. Copper Core View - The Politburo meeting boosts market confidence. The supply issue has been factored into copper prices, and demand from white - goods and power industries is positive [15] Key Points - **Macro**: The Politburo meeting's statements on monetary and fiscal policies give market confidence [15] - **Fundamentals**: Supply concerns are already reflected in prices, and demand from white - goods and power sectors is promising [15] - **Price Data**: - **Futures**:沪铜主力 at 77,580 yuan/ton, up 0.18%;伦铜3M at 9,360 dollars/ton, down 1% [16] - **Spot**: Shanghai Non - ferrous 1 copper at 77,565 yuan/ton, down 0.74% [20] 3. Zinc Core View - Domestic zinc ingot inventory is decreasing. Cost support weakens, demand is mixed, and external factors limit price decline [35] Key Points - **Inventory**: SMM seven - region zinc ingot inventory decreased by 14,200 tons to 85,800 tons week - on - week [35] - **Cost**: Zinc concentrate processing fees are rising, weakening cost support [35] - **Demand**: Galvanizing sector's开工 is up, while die - casting zinc alloy and zinc oxide开工 is down [35] - **Price Data**:沪锌主力 at 22,520 yuan/ton, down 1.01% [36] 4. Aluminum Core View - For aluminum, Trump's statement on tariffs improves market sentiment, and supply is stable with inventory decline. For alumina, supply and demand have different trends, and inventory affects prices [46] Key Points - **Aluminum**: - **Macro**: Trump's statement on tariffs affects market sentiment [46] - **Fundamentals**: Supply is stable, and inventory is decreasing, but demand may decline after the peak season [46] - **Price Data**:沪铝主力 at 19,935 yuan/ton, down 0.47% [46] - **Alumina**: - **Supply**: Bauxite supply is abundant, and alumina production may increase after some plants resume operations [46] - **Demand**: Little change in demand [46] - **Inventory**: Social inventory is decreasing, but high warehouse receipts limit price rebound [46] 5. Nickel Core View - There is no obvious upward momentum. Nickel product royalties are set to be implemented, and different segments of the nickel industry have various trends [66] Key Points - **Supply**: Nickel ore supply is affected by the end of the rainy season, with high - grade ore remaining tight [66] - **Product Trends**: Nickel iron prices are under pressure, and sulfuric acid nickel prices are relatively stable [66] - **Price Data**:沪镍主连 at 124,690 yuan/ton, down 1% [67] 6. Tin Core View - Tin prices return to fundamentals. Supply is stable, and demand is supported by semiconductor expectations [80] Key Points - **Supply**: Although there are plans for tin mine复产, it is difficult to complete in 1 - 2 weeks [80] - **Demand**: The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index recovers slightly due to Sino - US tariff policy expectations [80] - **Price Data**:沪锡主力 at 260,570 yuan/ton, down 0.86% [80] 7. Lithium Carbonate Core View - Overall supply is high despite some producers' cuts. Demand from energy storage projects is weak, and downstream restocking is cautious [91] Key Points - **Supply**: Some small and medium - sized producers cut production, but large producers increase efficiency [91] - **Demand**: Energy storage demand is weak, and downstream restocking is slow [91] - **Price Data**:碳酸锂期货主力 at 66,960 yuan/ton, down 1,220 yuan [91] 8. Industrial Silicon Core View - Supply in the south is slowly recovering, and prices are at a historical low. High inventory is difficult to deplete due to weak demand [99] Key Points - **Supply**: Southern production is slowly increasing, and a northern plant may undergo maintenance [99] - **Demand**: Downstream demand is weak, and high inventory persists [99] - **Price Data**:华东553 at 9,600 yuan/ton, down 0.52% [100]

Core Viewpoint - The issuance of ultra-long-term special government bonds and central financial institution capital injection bonds has commenced, supported by stable market liquidity and monetary policy tools from the central bank [1][4]. Group 1: Bond Issuance Details - The issuance amounts for the ultra-long-term special government bonds are 500 billion for 20-year bonds, 710 billion for 30-year bonds, and 1650 billion for central financial institution capital injection bonds [2]. - The winning bid rates are 1.98% for 20-year bonds, 1.88% for 30-year bonds, and 1.45% for 5-year bonds, with overall bid multiples of 3.11, 3.66, and 2.67 respectively [2]. - The issuance reflects a rational market response, with no signs of excessive bidding, indicating strong demand from institutional investors [2][3]. Group 2: Market Reactions and Trends - The current issuance shows a yield inversion where the 20-year bond yield is higher than the 30-year bond yield, which is contrary to typical market behavior [3]. - The increase in the scale of bond issuance is expected to significantly boost government debt supply this year, with a planned issuance of 1.3 trillion in ultra-long-term special government bonds, up by 300 billion from 2024 [4]. - The central bank's recent MLF operations have injected 5000 billion into the market, indicating a proactive approach to maintain liquidity and support the bond issuance [5][6]. Group 3: Future Market Outlook - The bond market is anticipated to experience a peak in issuance from May to June, with local government bonds expected to maintain a rapid issuance pace [8]. - Market sentiment is becoming more optimistic due to ongoing liquidity support and signals from the political bureau meeting regarding proactive fiscal policies [8][9]. - The central bank is likely to provide additional easing measures to support fiscal policies, maintaining a consistent policy direction [10].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views - The Chinese government will implement more proactive macro - policies, including fiscal and monetary policies, to support the real economy [2]. - China's economy started well in Q1 2025, with GDP growing by 5.4% year - on - year. The financial system remained stable and the financial market showed strong resilience [3]. - From January to March, the profits of industrial enterprises above designated size turned from a decline to an increase, and nearly 60% of industries saw profit growth [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Hot News - The Politburo emphasized proactive macro - policies, including possible reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts [2]. - An explosion occurred at a port in Iran, causing 25 deaths [2]. - China is accelerating the pilot reform of automobile circulation and consumption [2]. - China's Q1 GDP grew by 5.4% year - on - year, and the financial system remained stable [3]. - From January to March, industrial enterprise profits turned from decline to growth, and manufacturing profits improved significantly [3]. Plate Performance - Key focus: hot - rolled coil, rebar, rapeseed meal, soybeans, PTA, and Shanghai gold [4]. - Night - session performance: different commodity futures had various price changes, with precious metals rising by 29.89%, coal - coking - steel - ore by 13.58%, and non - metallic building materials by 2.78% [4]. Asset Performance - Different asset classes had different performance. For example, among equities, the S&P 500 rose 0.74% daily, while among commodities, London spot gold rose 6.27% monthly and 26.47% annually [8].

近日，2025年超长期特别国债发行"开闸"，两期共计1210亿元债券顺利发行。与此同时，中央金融 机构注资特别国债也启动发行。中央政治局会议强调，"要加紧实施更加积极有为的宏观政策，用好用 足更加积极的财政政策和适度宽松的货币政策。加快地方政府专项债券、超长期特别国债等发行使 用"。宏观政策加速落地显效，推动我国经济稳中有进、持续向好，更有效应对外部变化的不确定性。 从2024年起连续几年发行超长期特别国债，是党中央作出的一项重大决策部署。2024年我国发行1 万亿元超长期特别国债，其中，7000亿元用于支持国家重大战略和重点领域安全能力建设；3000亿元用 于支持大规模设备更新和消费品以旧换新，特别是加大汽车报废更新、家电产品以旧换新补贴力度，拉 动消费效应明显。1万亿元超长期特别国债的发行使用，有力支持了"两重"建设、"两新"工作。 今年我国财政政策进一步加力，明确要"更加积极"，超长期特别国债也更加给力。一方面，资金规 模更大。按照预算安排，今年我国拟发行超长期特别国债1.3万亿元，比上年增加3000亿元，其中， 8000亿元用于更大力度支持"两重"项目，5000亿元用于加力扩围实施"两新"政策。另一方 ...

转自：新华财经 新华财经北京4月28日电 过去的一周（4月21日-25日），资金整体偏松，主要期限资金利率有所下行。截至4月25日收盘，现券期货涨跌互 现，10年期国债活跃券收益率报1.66%，30年期国债活跃券收益率收报1.885%，10年期国开债活跃券收益率报1.714%。 机构认为，目前关税预期或仍存反复可能，或处于上轮第一、第二阶段之间，短期仍可能带来债市扰动，但影响权重或在衰减，后续财政货 币配合节奏以及基本面演变或再度成为债市交易主线。消费提振成色如何是未来基本面演绎核心；"适度宽松"预期已部分定价，但降准、降 息还未兑现，配合财政或是货币政策最佳发力时刻，4月下旬或5月财政供给放量，宽货币中的流动性宽松和资金利率下行或将先行兑现。 市场回顾 具体来看，上周一债市震荡走弱，全各期限现券收益率较前一周五多数上行，尾盘10年期国债、国开债活跃券收益率分别为1.663%、 1.712%，分别上行1.5BP和1.2BP，10年期与1年期收益率利差小幅收窄；周二债市重启涨势，全天看各期限现券收益率有所下行，长端及超 长端更显强势，10年期国债活跃券收益率下行1.7BP至1.646%，10年期国开债活跃券收益 ...

Group 1 - The Central Political Bureau of the Communist Party of China emphasizes the need for timely interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio (RRR) reductions to support the real economy [1] - Analysts predict that the second quarter is a ripe time for these monetary policy adjustments, with expected interest rate cuts of 0.3 percentage points and RRR cuts of 0.5 percentage points, releasing approximately 1 trillion yuan in long-term funds [1] - The need for macroeconomic policy support is highlighted due to high actual interest rates and external economic pressures, with expectations for RRR cuts and interest rate reductions to boost consumer and business investment [1] Group 2 - The priority for releasing long-term liquidity tools remains with RRR cuts, which are expected to be implemented first as fiscal policies become more accommodative in the second quarter [2] - Interest rate cuts may face constraints from the yuan's exchange rate and banks' net interest margins, but the weakening of the dollar reduces immediate exchange rate pressures [2] - Overall, the monetary policy is expected to maintain a loose stance through 2025, with anticipated RRR cuts of about 1 percentage point and interest rate reductions of approximately 0.3 percentage points throughout the year [2]

固收周度点评 20250427 债市蓄力，提前布局 2025 年 04 月 27 日 [Table_Author] 分析师：谭逸鸣 研究助理：何楠飞 执业证号：S0100522030001 执业证号：S0100123070014 邮箱：tanyiming@mszq.com 邮箱：henanfei@mszq.com ➢ 债市盘整期，蓄力破局 本周（4/21-4/25）债市震荡特征较为明显，上半周多空交织，关税政策反 复放大债市波动，周初税期走款压力下资金面有所收敛，市场处于 MLF 续作、 特别国债发行及降准落地的期待中，情绪较为纠结。进入后半周，债市震荡走强， 特别国债发行结果尚可，叠加当日公告的 MLF 续作 6000 亿元，资金价格有所 回落，提振债市表现，周五政治局会议落地，再提"适时降准降息"，但影响或边 际减弱，债市延续震荡格局。 4/21，债市震荡走弱，早盘 LPR 报价维持不变，税期走款扰动下，资金面 边际收敛，叠加股市低开高走，债市利率开盘后震荡上行，午后随着市场情绪有 所改善，转为震荡行情。当日 1Y、5Y、10Y、30Y 国债收益率分别变动 1.8、2.6、 1.7、1.9BP 至 1.4 ...

Revenue Performance - In March 2025, national general public budget revenue increased by 0.3% year-on-year, an improvement from a decline of 1.6% in January-February[1] - Cumulative general public budget revenue for Q1 2025 decreased by 1.1% year-on-year, lower than the full-year growth rate of the previous year[2] - Cumulative government fund revenue for Q1 2025 fell by 11.0% year-on-year, compared to a decline of 10.7% in January-February[1] Expenditure Trends - Cumulative general public budget expenditure for Q1 2025 grew by 4.2% year-on-year, an acceleration of 0.6 percentage points compared to the previous year[6] - In March 2025, general public budget expenditure increased by 5.7% year-on-year, up 2.3 percentage points from January-February[8] - Cumulative government fund expenditure for Q1 2025 rose by 11.1% year-on-year, significantly higher than the 1.2% growth in January-February[1] Tax Revenue Insights - In Q1 2025, tax revenue decreased by 3.5% year-on-year, while non-tax revenue increased by 8.8%[3] - In March 2025, corporate income tax revenue surged by 16.0% year-on-year, a significant increase of 26.4 percentage points compared to January-February[4] - Personal income tax revenue in March 2025 plummeted by 58.5% year-on-year, contrasting with a 26.7% increase in January-February, primarily due to the timing of the Spring Festival[4] Land Market and Special Bonds - Cumulative land use rights transfer revenue in Q1 2025 fell by 15.9% year-on-year, indicating ongoing weakness in the real estate market[9] - The issuance of special bonds in Q1 2025 was significantly high, contributing to a substantial increase in government fund expenditure[9] - Future issuance of special bonds and long-term special treasury bonds in April 2025 is expected to enhance investment and consumption stability[9]

Economic Overview - China's GDP grew by 5.4% year-on-year in Q1 2025, indicating a positive economic start[5] - The need for robust policies to stabilize the economic recovery amidst increasing external shocks is emphasized[5] Fiscal Policy - The new local government special bond limit for 2025 is set at CNY 44,000 billion, an increase of CNY 5,000 billion from the previous year, marking the largest scale since 2015[6] - As of April 25, 2025, CNY 11,372 billion of special bonds have been issued, achieving 25.8% of the annual plan[6] Monetary Policy - The meeting highlighted the importance of maintaining a moderately loose monetary policy, with a focus on timely adjustments such as potential rate cuts[9] - Social financing stock increased by 8.4% year-on-year in Q1 2025, with new social financing amounting to CNY 15.2 trillion, an increase of CNY 2.4 trillion compared to the previous year[9] Consumer Spending - Final consumption expenditure contributed 51.7% to economic growth in Q1 2025, driving GDP growth by 2.8 percentage points[11] - Over 120 million people have benefited from subsidies under the "old for new" policy, leading to sales exceeding CNY 720 billion[12] Real Estate Market - In March 2025, new residential prices in first-tier cities rose by 0.1%, marking five consecutive months of stabilization[16] - The government is focusing on urban renewal and improving housing quality, with new standards set to take effect on May 1, 2025[17]

Group 1 - Xiaohongshu announced the cancellation of the "big-small week" work schedule, effective from May 1, which includes the release of existing cash and stock options for employees [2][7] - The company aims to establish long-term relationships with employees through trust-based mechanisms, as stated in the internal letter [2] - Employees will have the option to repurchase stock options upon leaving the company, effective from May 1 [2] Group 2 - The People's Bank of China will conduct a 600 billion yuan MLF operation on April 25 to maintain ample liquidity in the banking system, resulting in a net injection of 500 billion yuan after accounting for 100 billion yuan maturing [9][11] - This month's MLF net injection is significantly larger than the previous month's 630 billion yuan, indicating a stronger monetary policy stance to support economic growth [11] - The issuance of super long-term special government bonds began on April 24, with 500 billion yuan for 20-year bonds and 710 billion yuan for 30-year bonds, as part of a total planned issuance of 1.3 trillion yuan for the year [16]