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银河期货燃料油半年报
Yin He Qi Huo· 2025-06-27 04:53
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - High - sulfur fuel oil was strong in H1 2025, with support shifting from supply to demand. It's expected to remain strong in Q3 due to peak - season power generation demand and geopolitical policy games, and become looser in Q4 as demand fades and supply returns. Low - sulfur fuel oil is expected to maintain a weak and volatile pattern [3][4][63]. - For investment strategies, it's recommended to stay on the sidelines for single - side trading, focus on FU9 - 1 positive spreads and narrowing high - low sulfur spreads in Q3 for arbitrage, and there are no options recommendations [5][63]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 First Part: Preface Summary 3.1.1 Market Review - High - sulfur fuel oil was supported by supply in Q1 2025, with main suppliers like Russia, Iran, and Mexico having supply issues. In Q2, power generation demand increased, and Egypt bought large amounts for power generation. Low - sulfur fuel oil was weak overall, with supply increasing after the stable operation of Al - Zour refinery and the return of South Sudan's heavy low - sulfur raw materials, and demand lacking a clear driving force [3]. 3.1.2 Market Outlook - High - sulfur fuel oil is expected to be strong in Q3 due to power generation demand and geopolitical factors, and become looser in Q4. Low - sulfur fuel oil is expected to maintain a weak and volatile pattern [4]. 3.1.3 Strategy Recommendations - Single - side: Stay on the sidelines. - Arbitrage: Focus on FU9 - 1 positive spreads and narrowing high - low sulfur spreads in Q3. - Options: None [5]. 3.2 Second Part: Fundamental Situation 3.2.1 Market Review - High - sulfur fuel oil was strong in H1 2025, with support shifting from supply to demand. In Q1, supply - side issues in Russia, Iran, and Mexico supported the market. In Q2, power generation demand increased, and supply tightened. Low - sulfur fuel oil was weak, with supply increasing after the stable operation of Al - Zour refinery and the return of South Sudan's heavy low - sulfur raw materials, and demand lacking a clear driving force [9][10]. 3.2.2 Supply Overview - **High - sulfur supply**: - Russia's supply was restricted by sanctions and bombings in H1 2025, and is expected to remain below 300 tons/month in H2. - Mexico's high - sulfur supply returned to the level before the Olmeca refinery's operation and is expected to be stable. - Middle - East high - sulfur exports had a monthly gap of about 400,000 tons in H1 2025 compared to previous years, mainly due to Iran. It's expected to be restricted in Q3 and recover in Q4 [18][22][28]. - **Low - sulfur supply**: - South Sudan's low - sulfur heavy raw material Dar Blend is recovering, and export tenders continue. - Kuwait's Al - Zour refinery has stable supply. - Nigeria's Dangote refinery has unstable gasoline unit operation, with sufficient short - term low - sulfur supply [50][52][54]. 3.2.3 Demand Overview - **High - sulfur demand**: - High - sulfur marine fuel demand is stably supported by the growth of desulfurization tower - equipped ships. - China's refinery high - sulfur feed demand is expected to slightly recover in H2. - High - sulfur power generation demand in summer 2025 exceeded expectations and is expected to remain strong in Q3 [34][38][45]. - **Low - sulfur demand**: - There is no specific driving force for demand, and marine fuel demand is stable. - China's low - sulfur market has abundant quotas, and production is stable [56][58]. 3.2.4 Inventory and Valuation No information provided. 3.3 Third Part: Future Outlook and Strategy Recommendations - High - sulfur fuel oil is expected to be strong before Q3 and become looser in Q4. Low - sulfur fuel oil is expected to maintain a weak and volatile pattern. - Strategy recommendations: - Single - side: Stay on the sidelines. - Arbitrage: Focus on FU9 - 1 positive spreads and narrowing high - low sulfur spreads in Q3. - Options: None [63].
地缘冲突降温,黄金多头占比已较高位下跌;美国PCE数据今晚公布,若显示通胀降温或能提振金价,后市市场情绪如何?欢迎前往“数据库-嘉盛市场晴雨表”查看并订阅(数据每10分钟更新1次)
news flash· 2025-06-27 02:51
Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that geopolitical tensions are easing, leading to a decline in the proportion of bullish positions in gold [1] - The upcoming release of the US PCE data is anticipated to impact market sentiment, particularly if it shows a decrease in inflation, which could potentially boost gold prices [1] Group 2 - The data shows a significant disparity in bullish and bearish positions across various indices, with the S&P 500 having 72% bullish and 28% bearish positions, while the Nasdaq has 16% bullish and 84% bearish positions [3] - The Hang Seng Index shows a 36% bullish and 64% bearish split, indicating a more cautious sentiment in the Hong Kong market [3] - The DAX 40 index has 39% bullish and 61% bearish positions, reflecting a similar cautious outlook in the German market [3] Group 3 - In the forex market, the Euro/USD pair shows a strong bearish sentiment with 17% bullish and 83% bearish positions, while the Euro/Yen pair has a significant 92% bearish sentiment [4] - The GBP/USD pair has a notable 84% bullish sentiment, contrasting with the bearish outlook in other currency pairs [4] - The Australian Dollar to Japanese Yen pair shows a 39% bullish and 61% bearish split, indicating a mixed sentiment [4]
国际油价冲高回落,多只原油QDII连发溢价警示
Di Yi Cai Jing· 2025-06-26 12:48
Core Insights - The recent volatility in international oil prices has led to significant fluctuations in the returns of oil QDII funds, prompting several funds to implement purchase restrictions and issue warnings about premium risks [1][2][3] Fund Performance and Restrictions - E Fund's oil LOF announced a suspension of subscription and redemption services effective July 1, following a previous suspension on June 19, due to the fund's net value closely tracking oil price fluctuations [1] - From June 9 to June 26, E Fund's oil LOF saw a cumulative increase of nearly 15% over two weeks, followed by a slight decline of 0.59% as of June 26, with a weekly drop of nearly 9% [1] - Other funds, such as Southern Oil LOF and Harvest Oil LOF, also suspended subscription and redemption services, with Southern Oil LOF issuing four premium risk warnings in June [2] Premium Risks and Market Dynamics - As of June 23, Harvest Oil LOF's premium rate reached 19%, while Southern Oil LOF's premium rate exceeded 8% [2] - The premium rates have since decreased, with Southern Oil LOF and Harvest Oil LOF reporting rates of 2.9% and 3.5% respectively as of June 26 [2] - The volatility in oil QDII fund returns has been significant, with E Fund's oil LOF down 12% year-to-date, while other funds like Huabao Oil and Southern Oil LOF have seen declines of 4.6% and 1.4% respectively [2] Oil Price Fluctuations - International oil prices experienced a "roller coaster" effect, with WTI crude oil futures peaking at over $78 per barrel on June 23 before falling to around $65 per barrel by June 26, marking a decline of over 15% [4] - Analysts suggest that while geopolitical tensions may support short-term oil prices, medium to long-term demand expectations are being revised downward, potentially putting pressure on the market [4] Supply and Demand Factors - Recent data indicates a decrease in U.S. crude oil inventories, with a reported drop of 5.8 million barrels for the week ending June 21, significantly exceeding market expectations [5] - The overall global crude oil inventory is showing a declining trend, despite a slight increase in Asian inventories [5] - As the consumption peak season approaches, there is potential for a rebound in oil demand, which may provide some support for prices [5]
中信期货晨报:国内商品期货收盘涨跌不一,原油、集运欧线表现偏弱-20250626
Zhong Xin Qi Huo· 2025-06-26 08:21
Group 1: Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the provided reports. Group 2: Core Views - Domestic economic maintains a stable pattern, with domestic assets presenting mainly structural opportunities. The policy - driven logic will be strengthened in the second half of the year. Overseas geopolitical risks may increase short - term market volatility, while in the long run, the weak US dollar pattern continues. Attention should be paid to non - US dollar assets and strategic allocation of resources such as gold [6]. - The domestic and overseas macro situations show different trends. Overseas, inflation trading cools down, and the long - and short - term allocation ideas diverge. In the domestic market, there are expectations of moderate reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts, and the fiscal end implements established policies [7]. - The investment sentiment in the financial, precious metals, shipping, black building materials, energy - chemical, and agricultural sectors is mainly in a state of shock, with different influencing factors and short - term outlooks for each sector [7][9]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Macro Essentials - **Overseas Macro**: The Fed maintained the federal funds rate target range at 4.25% - 4.50% in June, with a more cautious expectation of rate cuts in the second half of the year. US economic data such as retail sales, industrial output, and the manufacturing index showed weakness, and the economic recovery is restricted by geopolitical risks and trade uncertainties. Rising oil prices may prompt the Fed to issue hawkish signals [6]. - **Domestic Macro**: The Lujiazui Financial Forum announced multiple financial support policies, increasing policy expectations for the second half of the year. The "national subsidy" funds are being gradually allocated. In May, fixed - asset investment expanded, the service industry grew faster, and industrial and consumer data showed positive growth [6]. - **Asset Views**: Domestic assets have structural opportunities, and overseas geopolitical risks may cause short - term market fluctuations. In the long run, a weak US dollar pattern persists, and attention should be paid to non - US dollar assets and gold [6]. 2. Viewpoint Highlights **Macro** - Domestic: Moderate reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts are expected, and fiscal policies are being implemented [7]. - Overseas: Inflation trading cools down, and the economic growth expectation improves [7]. **Finance** - Stock index futures, index options, and treasury bond futures are all in a state of shock, with different influencing factors such as capital flow, option liquidity, and policy changes [7]. **Precious Metals** - Gold and silver are in short - term adjustment due to the progress of Sino - US negotiations, and are affected by Trump's tariff policy and the Fed's monetary policy [7]. **Shipping** - The shipping market sentiment has declined, and the focus is on the recovery of the loading rate in June. The container shipping to Europe route is in a state of shock, affected by factors such as tariff policies and shipping company pricing strategies [7]. **Black Building Materials** - Most products in the black building materials sector, including steel, iron ore, coke, and others, are in a state of shock, affected by factors such as supply - demand, cost, and policy [7]. **Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials** - Non - ferrous metals continue to be in a state of shock, with different trends for each metal. For example, copper prices are high, while zinc prices may decline [7]. **Energy - Chemical** - Different energy - chemical products have different trends. Crude oil, urea, and some other products may be in a state of shock or shock - decline, while ethylene glycol and short - fiber may show shock - rise trends [9]. **Agriculture** - Agricultural products such as livestock, rubber, and cotton are in a state of shock, affected by factors such as supply - demand, policy, and weather [9].
广发期货日评-20250626
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2025-06-26 03:49
Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views of the Report - Short - term international situation is volatile, and risk preference drives market sentiment back. A - shares have a significant increase, and different futures varieties in various sectors present different trends and investment opportunities [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Stock Index Futures - The large - finance sector continues to reach new highs, and A - shares rise with increased trading volume. It is recommended to buy the deeply discounted 09 contracts on dips in the CSI 1000 variety and sell the 09 call options near 6300 to form a covered combination [2]. Bond Futures - Near the end of the month, the bond market may anticipate the central bank's restart of bond purchases. The overall pattern of bond futures is short - term volatile but generally strong. In the unilateral strategy, bond futures can be appropriately bought on adjustments, and in the spot - futures strategy, attention can be paid to the positive arbitrage strategy of the TS2509 contract and the steepening of the yield curve [2]. Precious Metals - The impact of geopolitical conflicts fades. The expectations of fiscal and monetary easing in Europe and the United States boost precious metals. It is recommended to continue the strategy of selling out - of - the - money options on both sides of gold, and silver prices are driven by easing expectations in the short term [2]. Shipping Index Futures - It is recommended to watch cautiously. The 08 contract of the container shipping index (European line) is expected to fluctuate between 1650 - 1850 [2]. Steel Futures - Industrial material demand and inventory are deteriorating. Attention should be paid to the decline in apparent demand. For unilateral operations, it is mainly a wait - and - see approach, and for arbitrage, the strategy of going long on finished products and short on raw materials can be considered [2]. Iron Ore Futures - It is recommended to try shorting on rebounds, with the upper pressure level around 720 [2]. Coking Coal Futures - It is recommended to go long on coking coal at low prices or go long on coking coal and short on coke [2]. Coke Futures - It is recommended to go long on coking coal and short on coke [2]. Base Metals (Copper, Aluminum, Zinc, etc.) - For copper, the main contract is expected to fluctuate between 78000 - 80000; for aluminum, between 19600 - 20600; for zinc, between 21500 - 22500. Each metal has its own supply - demand and price characteristics, and corresponding investment strategies are provided [2]. Energy and Chemical Futures - Crude oil: The market is mainly oscillating, and short - term long positions can be considered at low prices. For other chemical products such as PTA, PF, etc., different investment strategies are proposed based on their supply - demand and price trends [2]. Agricultural Futures - Different agricultural products such as soybeans, corn, palm oil, etc., have different market trends. For example, soybeans may have short - term corrections, and different trading strategies are given for each product [2]. Special and New Energy Commodity Futures - For special commodities like glass and rubber, and new energy commodities like polysilicon and lithium carbonate, corresponding price trends and investment strategies are provided [2].
集运日报:各合约继续下跌,符合日报预期,若有空单可继续持有,近期博弈难度较大,建议轻仓参与或观望。-20250626
Xin Shi Ji Qi Huo· 2025-06-26 02:45
Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Contracts continue to decline, in line with the daily report's expectations. Given the high difficulty of trading recently, it is recommended to participate with a light position or stay on the sidelines. In the context of geopolitical conflicts, the trading difficulty is high, and the market is prone to decline and difficult to rise without more positive news. [2][3] 3. Summary by Related Content Market Performance - On June 23, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) for the European route was 1937.14 points, up 14.1% from the previous period; the SCFIS for the US - West route was 2083.46 points, down 28.4% from the previous period. On June 20, the Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) composite index was 1382.05 points, down 10.07% from the previous period. [2] - On June 20, the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) was 1869.59 points, down 218.65 points from the previous period; the SCFI for the European route was 1835 USD/TEU, down 0.49% from the previous period; the SCFI for the US - West route was 2772 USD/FEU, down 32.86% from the previous period. The China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) composite index was 1342.46 points, up 8.0% from the previous period. [2] - On June 25, the main contract 2508 closed at 1740.2, down 3.07%, with a trading volume of 50,800 lots and an open interest of 43,500 lots, a decrease of 1263 lots from the previous day. [3] Macroeconomic Data - Eurozone's May manufacturing PMI flash was 49.4 (expected 49.3, previous 49); services PMI flash was 48.9 (expected 50.3, previous 50.1); composite PMI was 49.5 (expected 50.7, previous 50.4). The Sentix Investor Confidence Index in May was - 8.1 (expected - 11.5, previous - 19.5). [2] - China's Caixin Manufacturing PMI in May was 48.3, down 2.1 percentage points from April, falling below the critical point for the first time since October 2024. [2] - US May Markit manufacturing PMI was 52.3 (a three - month high, expected 49.9, previous 50.2); services PMI flash was 52.3 (a two - month high, expected 51, previous 50.8); composite PMI flash was 52.1 (expected 50.3, previous 50.6). [2] Strategy Recommendations - Short - term strategy: Without an obvious fundamental turnaround, it is recommended to try shorting on rallies. It has been suggested to short lightly when the 2508 contract rebounds above 2000. Hold existing short positions and stop - loss long positions, setting stop - loss and take - profit levels. [4] - Arbitrage strategy: In the context of international turmoil and large fluctuations, it is advisable to stay on the sidelines for now. [4] - Long - term strategy: It has been recommended to take profits when contracts rally and wait for a pullback to stabilize before determining the subsequent direction. [4] - Circuit breakers: The circuit breakers for contracts 2506 - 2604 are adjusted to 16%. [4] - Margin: The margin for contracts 2506 - 2604 is adjusted to 26%. [4] - Daily opening limit: The daily opening limit for all contracts 2506 - 2604 is 100 lots. [4] Geopolitical News - Iran's Atomic Energy Organization Chairman Mohammad Eslami said on the 24th that the Iranian government has taken necessary measures to ensure the continuation of the Iranian nuclear program after military strikes by Israel and the US. [5] - Iranian President Pezeshkian announced on the 24th that the 12 - day war initiated by Israel has ended, and he called on all agencies to focus on reconstruction. [5]
中信期货2025年中策略会圆满收官
Qi Huo Ri Bao Wang· 2025-06-26 02:21
Group 1: Conference Overview - The CITIC Futures 2025 Mid-Year Strategy Conference was held on June 25, 2025, in Shanghai, focusing on the theme "Riding the Wind and Breaking the Waves" [1] - The conference featured one main forum and ten sub-forums, covering macroeconomics, equity, bonds, commodities, exchange rates, asset management, OTC derivatives, and overseas markets [1] Group 2: Keynote Speeches - CITIC Futures Chairman Dou Changhong emphasized the company's commitment to high-quality industrial services and the globalization of futures business [2] - Fudan University Professor Shen Guobing discussed the impact of Trump's tariff policies on Sino-U.S. trade, highlighting the challenges of trade fragmentation, geopolitical conflicts, and climate crises [3] - Yang Delong, Chief Economist at Qianhai Kaiyuan Fund, noted that U.S. stocks are in a high valuation phase, while A-shares and Hong Kong stocks are attracting significant foreign investment [4] Group 3: Market Outlooks - CITIC Futures Vice President Zeng Ning provided an outlook on the macro and commodity markets, indicating that the real estate sector will continue to drag down commodity demand for 1-2 years [5] - The Financial Forum discussed the shift from tariff-driven to dollar-driven macro themes, with a focus on structural allocation in A-shares [6] - The Nonferrous Forum highlighted the influence of U.S. trade policies on the market, with basic metals expected to remain strong despite macro uncertainties [8] Group 4: Sector-Specific Insights - The Agricultural Forum indicated that many agricultural products are facing price declines due to high supply, with potential supply contractions in the future [9] - The Black Forum discussed the cyclical downturn in construction steel demand, while the coal and coke markets face long-term pressure [10] - The Energy Transition Forum addressed the oversupply pressures in both traditional and new energy sectors, with coal and natural gas markets expected to face challenges [11][12] Group 5: Investment Strategies - The Asset Management Forum explored the innovative use of derivatives in wealth management, emphasizing the importance of risk management tools [15] - The Chemical Forum discussed the relationship between refined oil and chemical products, with a focus on market dynamics and potential investment opportunities [14] Group 6: Conclusion - The conference successfully provided a platform for sharing insights and strategies, reinforcing CITIC Futures' commitment to compliance, integrity, professionalism, and responsibility in the industry [16]
资产配置日报:担心踏空-20250625
HUAXI Securities· 2025-06-25 15:31
Core Insights - The report indicates a significant increase in equity market performance, driven by the participation of stabilizing funds and a growing fear of missing out among investors [2][6][15] - The report highlights a notable rise in major stock indices, with the Shanghai Composite Index and CSI 300 increasing by 1.04% and 1.44% respectively, while the technology sector showed strong performance [2][6] - The report discusses the volatility in oil and gold prices, with oil prices experiencing a sharp decline followed by a slight rebound, reflecting market stabilization [3][4] Domestic Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3455.97, up by 1.04%, while the CSI 300 Index rose by 1.44% to 3960.07 [1] - The report notes that the technology sector, particularly the ChiNext Index and the STAR 50, saw significant gains of 3.11% and 1.73% respectively [2] - The bond market showed a mixed performance, with long-term bonds underperforming compared to short-term bonds, as indicated by the slight increase in yields for 10-year and 30-year government bonds [2][6] Market Sentiment and Trends - Market sentiment appears to be stabilizing, with a shift towards observing price movements in oil and gold after significant fluctuations [3] - The report mentions that the recent influx of funds into stock ETFs indicates a growing bullish sentiment among investors, as evidenced by the increase in options trading volume [8][9] - Historical comparisons suggest that the current market rally is reminiscent of previous periods where stabilizing funds led to significant upward movements in stock prices [12][14][15] Sector Analysis - The report identifies potential investment opportunities across various sectors, including consumer goods, technology, and military industries, driven by policy expectations and market dynamics [14][15] - It emphasizes the importance of a diversified investment approach, particularly in light of the current market conditions and the potential for volatility [15]
集运日报:以伊冲突缓和,原油继续大跌,EC盘面低开低走,符合日报预期,近期博弈难度较大,建议轻仓参与或观望。-20250625
Xin Shi Ji Qi Huo· 2025-06-25 09:13
2025年6月25日 集运日报 (航运研究小组) 以伊冲突缓和,原油继续大跌, EC盘面低开低走, 符合日报预期, 近期博弈难度较大, 建议轻仓参与或观望。 | SCFIS、NCFI运价指数 | | | --- | --- | | 6月23日 | 6月20日 | | 上海出口集装箱结算运价指数SCFIS(欧洲航线)1937.14点,较上期上涨14.1% | 宁波出口集装箱运价指数NCFI(综合指数)1382.05点,较上期下跌10.07% | | | 宁波出口集装箱运价指数NCFI(欧洲航线)1299.58点,较上期下跌0.64% | | 上海出口集装箱结算运价指数SCFIS(美西航线)2083.46点,较上期下跌28.4% | 宁波出口集装箱运价指数NCFI(美西航线)1586.05点,较上期下跌28.91% | | 6月20日 | | | | 6月20日 | | 上海出口集装箱运价指数SCFI公布价格1869.59点,较上期下跌218.65点 | 中国出口集装箱运价指数CCFI(综合指数)1342.46点,较上期上涨8.0% | | 上海出口集装箱运价指数SCFI欧线价格1835USD/TEU, 较上期下 ...
供应主导定价,需求遭遇瓶颈
Dong Zheng Qi Huo· 2025-06-25 09:11
Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for crude oil is "oscillation" [1] Core Viewpoints of the Report - Geopolitical conflict trading is expected to be a short - term market trend before a substantial supply disruption occurs. Oil prices may maintain a certain risk premium in the third quarter. In the medium - and long - term, the idle capacity to mitigate supply disruption risks is mainly concentrated in OPEC+. The demand side's support for oil prices is expected to be limited. The downward economic growth trend and structural changes in oil consumption restrict the medium - and long - term demand growth space. In the second half of the year, pricing drivers are expected to come more from the supply side. Without geopolitical conflict disturbances, the pattern of stronger supply elasticity will still suppress the rebound space of oil prices. The Brent price is expected to fluctuate between $60 - 80 per barrel. If a substantial supply disruption occurs due to geopolitical conflicts, it will bring significant upward risks to oil prices [5][113] Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. 1H25 Oil Price Trend Review - In the first half of 2025, the average Brent oil price was around $71 per barrel, a decrease of about 7% compared to the second half of last year. In the second quarter, the implied volatility of oil prices rose significantly twice in April and June. In early April, the US announced a reciprocal tariff policy, and OPEC+ unexpectedly accelerated production growth, causing oil prices to drop nearly $15 per barrel in a short time. Brent twice fell below $60 per barrel, hitting a four - year low. In June, Israel's sudden air strike on Iran led to a sharp rise in oil prices. The SC crude oil futures in Shanghai outperformed Brent due to geopolitical conflicts [17] 2. Geopolitical Conflict Risks Rise and Fall Sharply, Testing Global Supply Stability 2.1. The Iran - Israel Conflict Re - triggers Market Concerns about the Navigation Safety of the "Oil Choke Point" - The Iran - Israel conflict on June 13 led to a sharp rise in geopolitical conflict risks and a significant increase in oil prices. Iran's current oil production and exports are at a high level. Sanctions may affect Iran's supply in the long term, and the US may further upgrade sanctions. The passage interruption risk of the Strait of Hormuz is more likely to cause market panic. The trade flow of crude oil and petroleum products through the Strait of Hormuz accounts for about 27% of the global total. Only a few countries have pipelines to bypass it. Geopolitical conflicts also affect the pricing differences of oil prices in different regions and the crack spread of petroleum products [21][22][25][27][32] 2.2. Venezuela's Supply Declines Marginally, and Russia's Supply Remains Stable - Chevron's operating license in Venezuela expired on May 27. Venezuela's crude oil production and exports have declined. Russia's crude oil exports in the first five months averaged about 3.35 million barrels per day, a year - on - year decrease of 250,000 barrels per day. Currently, Russia's supply remains stable [39][42] 3. OPEC+ Production Policy Tends to Maintain Market Share - Eight OPEC+ member countries will increase production by 411,000 barrels per day in July. OPEC+ production has rebounded since April but is less than the agreed - upon increase target. The main purpose of increasing production is to maintain market share. Most countries have a certain scale of theoretical idle capacity. Kazakhstan's over - production has led to an increased risk of it exiting OPEC+ [44][45][46][51] 4. Non - OPEC+ Supply: US Production Growth Potential is Constrained, and Offshore Production will Contribute the Main Increment 4.1. The Negative Impact of Falling Oil Prices on US Shale Oil Production Growth is Apparent - US crude oil production growth has slowed down. The decline in oil prices has significantly inhibited the capital expenditure willingness of US upstream producers. The number of oil rigs and fracturing equipment has decreased, and the free cash flow of listed shale oil producers has deteriorated. The negative impact of low oil prices on shale oil supply growth has begun to appear [55][61][62][63] 4.2. Conventional Offshore Oilfield Projects are Expected to Contribute Most of the Non - OPEC+ Increment - From now until the end of 2026, global offshore oilfield projects are in a capacity release cycle. Brazil, Guyana, and the US offshore are expected to contribute the main increments. Brazil's production is expected to increase to around 3.9 million barrels per day. Guyana's full - load production is expected to approach 1 million barrels per day. The US Gulf of Mexico's offshore oil production is expected to remain around 1.8 million barrels per day. Canada's future production growth is limited [69][72][75][76] 5. The Expectation of Slowing Economic Growth and Consumption Structure Transformation Restrict the Demand Growth Space 5.1. China's Refinery Operating Rates Continue to Differentiate, and Processing Volume Growth is Weak - China's industrial crude oil processing volume from January to May increased by 0.3% year - on - year. The operating rates of different types of refineries in China are differentiated. The production of gasoline, diesel, and kerosene has decreased, and the proportion of kerosene in exports has increased. China's crude oil imports have increased slightly, and inventories have risen [81][82][86][88] 5.2. Global Crude Oil Inventories Rise, and Refined Oil Inventories Remain at a Low Level - The processing volumes of major global refining regions have shown mixed trends. Global crude oil inventories have risen, with non - OECD countries, especially China, contributing to the increase. Refined oil inventories in Europe and the US are still at a low level. Diesel demand improvement needs to be further verified, and gasoline demand shows a structural change [93][96][98][99] 5.3. Multiple Factors Restrict the Global Demand Outlook - The three major institutions have lowered their forecasts for global oil demand growth in 2025. The long - term structural changes in oil consumption, such as the increase in new energy vehicle penetration and the continuation of the home - office model, restrict the growth of oil demand [106][109] 6. Investment Recommendations - Geopolitical conflict trading is expected to be short - term before a substantial supply disruption. In the third quarter, oil prices may maintain a risk premium. In the second half of the year, pricing is more driven by the supply side. The Brent price is expected to fluctuate between $60 - 80 per barrel. A substantial supply disruption due to geopolitical conflicts will bring significant upward risks to oil prices [113]