1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short term, methanol is expected to fluctuate at a high level, with limited upside and downside potential [2][4]. - Macro - level factors include Trump's agreement information reducing the probability of geopolitical conflicts, and the nomination of Wash as Fed Chair causing a decline in precious metals and a weak overall macro - sentiment. However, strong international energy prices support the downside of methanol [4]. - Fundamentally, the short - term supply - demand pattern of methanol is weak, and high port inventories suppress the upside of prices [4]. - In terms of valuation, the MTO fundamentals are weak, and the production profit is continuously compressed. The range of 2300 - 2350 yuan/ton is a strong fundamental resistance level. The cash - flow cost line of coal - based methanol plants in Henan provides support for the lower valuation of methanol [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 This Week's Methanol Summary (Supply, Demand, Inventory) Supply - From January 23 - 29, 2026, China's methanol production was 2,037,735 tons, an increase of 28,820 tons from last week, and the plant capacity utilization rate was 91.21%, a 1.43% week - on - week increase. Next week, production is expected to be about 2.0771 million tons, and the capacity utilization rate is expected to be about 92.98%, higher than the current level [4]. Demand - Olefins: The operating rate of the MTO industry increased slightly as the load of Ningbo Fude's MTO plant increased [4]. - Traditional downstream: For dimethyl ether, the Xinxiang Xinlianxin plant is expected to shut down next week, reducing supply and potentially lowering the overall capacity utilization rate. For glacial acetic acid, there are no planned maintenance activities next week, and the capacity utilization rate is expected to increase slightly. For formaldehyde, plants such as Xinxing Chemical and Gushi Huanyu are expected to shut down for maintenance, and plants like Shandong Lianyi may continue to reduce their loads, so supply is expected to decrease and the capacity utilization rate may decline. For chlorides, there is no clear shutdown plan for the next period, and some plants may restart, so the domestic methane chloride capacity utilization rate is expected to continue rising, but attention should be paid to the recovery of load - reducing plants and the impact of high liquid chlorine prices on production facilities [4]. Inventory - As of 11:30 on January 28, 2026, the inventory of China's methanol sample production enterprises was 424,100 tons, a decrease of 14,200 tons from the previous period, a 3.24% week - on - week decrease; the orders to be delivered of sample enterprises were 265,700 tons, an increase of 27,400 tons from the previous period, an 11.50% week - on - week increase [4]. - As of January 28, 2026, the inventory of China's methanol port samples was 1.4721 million tons, an increase of 14,600 tons from the previous period, a 1.00% week - on - week increase. Port inventories continued to accumulate, mainly in East China. 191,400 tons of foreign vessels were unloaded in East China during the period. In Jiangsu's main storage areas along the Yangtze River,提货 decreased, and although an olefin plant in Zhejiang restarted, inventories still accumulated due to the supply of foreign vessels. In South China, only a small amount of domestic trade replenishment was available in Guangdong, and the main storage areas'提货 decreased. Since there was no supply from foreign vessels, inventories decreased. In Fujian, there was no unloading during the week, and inventories also decreased [4]. 3.2 Price and Spread - The report presents multiple charts showing the trends of basis, monthly spreads, warehouse receipts, domestic and international spot prices, and port - inland price differences of methanol from 2020 - 2026 [7][8][9][12][16][20] 3.3 Supply - The report shows the trends of methanol production, capacity utilization rates by region and process, import - related data (import volume, cost, arrival volume, and profit), production costs, and production profits from 2018 - 2026 [25][27][35][39][42] 3.4 Demand - The report shows the trends of capacity utilization rates of methanol downstream industries (such as MTO, dimethyl ether, formaldehyde, etc.), production profits of downstream industries, and procurement volumes and inventories of downstream industries from 2018 - 2026 [47][55][63][73] 3.5 Inventory - The report shows the trends of methanol factory inventories (by region) and port inventories (by region) from 2018 - 2026 [78][83] 3.6 Strategies - Unilateral: Short - term high - level fluctuations, with resistance at 2350 - 2400 yuan/ton for the 05 contract and support at 2150 - 2180 yuan/ton [4]. - Inter - period: The 5 - 9 monthly spread may show a positive spread pattern [4]. - Inter - variety: The spread between MA and PP is in a fluctuating pattern [4].

Report Overview - Report Title: Fuel Oil and Low-Sulfur Fuel Oil Weekly Report - Report Date: February 1, 2026 - Analyst: Liang Kefang - Investment Advisory Qualification Number: Z0019111 [1] 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - High-sulfur fuel oil's strong performance continues, and in the short term, prices are likely to rise and difficult to fall. The number of global CDU maintenance has increased slightly. Although Middle Eastern exports continue to rise, they have not flowed into Singapore and Malaysia in the short term, and Singapore's imports have not significantly increased. Geopolitical conflicts in Iran remain uncertain, causing market concerns about unexpected supply disruptions. High-sulfur prices will remain high unless there is a significant increase in Singapore's imports [4]. - For low-sulfur fuel oil, despite the复产 of the Al Zour refinery and the gradual increase in Japanese exports, there are still some positive factors. Brazilian exports have declined due to refinery maintenance, and European refineries are expected to process more heavy components, limiting low-sulfur exports. In the short term, low-sulfur fuel oil prices have support and are unlikely to weaken significantly [4]. - Valuation: FU is expected to range from 2,850 to 2,950, and LU from 3,200 to 3,400 [4]. - Strategies: 1) Unilateral: Fuel oil prices are in a high-volatility environment, and there is potential for further price increases. 2) Inter-period: The contango structure of FU and LU has reversed to backwardation and may return to contango after geopolitical issues subside. 3) Inter-variety: The crack spreads of FU and LU have rebounded slightly, and the LU-FU spread will continue to narrow in the short term [4]. 3. Summary by Category 3.1 Supply - **Refinery Operations**: The report presents data on the capacity utilization rates of Chinese refineries, including overall, independent, and major refineries, from 2016 - 2025 [6]. - **Global Refinery Maintenance**: Data on the maintenance volumes of global hydrocracking, FCC, coking, and CDU units from 2018 - 2026 are provided, showing the trends and fluctuations in refinery maintenance [8][9][12]. - **Domestic Refinery Production and Commodity Volume**: Data on China's fuel oil production, low-sulfur fuel oil production, and domestic fuel oil commodity volume from 2018 - 2025 are presented, reflecting the production capacity and market supply of domestic refineries [14]. 3.2 Demand - **Domestic and International Fuel Oil Demand Data**: The report shows data on China's marine fuel oil consumption, Singapore's fuel oil sales, and China's fuel oil apparent consumption from 2018 - 2025, reflecting the demand situation in the fuel oil market [18]. 3.3 Inventory - **Global Fuel Oil Spot Inventory**: Data on the spot inventory of fuel oil in Singapore, European ARA, Fujairah, and the United States from 2018 - 2026 are presented, showing the inventory levels and trends in different regions [21][22]. 3.4 Price and Spreads - **Spot FOB Prices in Asia-Pacific**: Data on the FOB prices of 3.5% and 0.5% fuel oil in Singapore and Fujairah from 2018 - 2026 are presented, reflecting the price trends in the Asia-Pacific fuel oil market [27][29]. - **Spot FOB Prices in Europe**: Data on the FOB prices of 3.5% and 1% fuel oil in Northwest Europe and the Mediterranean from 2018 - 2026 are presented, showing the price trends in the European fuel oil market [31]. - **Fuel Oil Spot Prices in the United States**: Data on the FOB prices of 3.5% and 0.5% fuel oil in the US Gulf, the cargo price of high-sulfur fuel oil in New York Harbor, and the price of low-sulfur straight-run fuel oil in USAC from 2018 - 2026 are presented, reflecting the price trends in the US fuel oil market [32]. - **Paper and Derivative Prices**: Data on the prices of high-sulfur and low-sulfur swaps in Northwest Europe and Singapore from 2024 - 2026, as well as the prices of FU and LU futures contracts from 2021 - 2026, are presented, showing the price trends in the paper and derivative markets [33][36][39]. - **Fuel Oil Spot Spreads**: Data on the high-low sulfur spread and viscosity spread in Singapore from 2019 - 2026 are presented, reflecting the spread relationships in the fuel oil spot market [41][43]. - **Global Fuel Oil Crack Spreads**: Data on the crack spreads of high-sulfur and low-sulfur fuel oil in Singapore, 3.5% and 1% fuel oil in Northwest Europe from 2019 - 2026 are presented, showing the crack spread relationships in the global fuel oil market [44]. - **Global Fuel Oil Paper Month Spreads**: Data on the month spreads of high-sulfur and low-sulfur fuel oil in Singapore and Northwest Europe from 2022 - 2026 are presented, reflecting the month spread relationships in the global fuel oil paper market [47]. 3.5 Imports and Exports - **Domestic Fuel Oil Import and Export Data**: Data on China's fuel oil import and export volumes from 2018 - 2025 are presented, showing the domestic fuel oil import and export situation [51][52]. - **Global High-Sulfur Fuel Oil Import and Export Data**: Data on the weekly changes in global high-sulfur fuel oil import and export volumes in different regions from 2018 - 2025 are presented, reflecting the global high-sulfur fuel oil import and export situation [54][56]. - **Global Low-Sulfur Fuel Oil Import and Export Data**: Data on the weekly changes in global low-sulfur fuel oil import and export volumes in different regions from 2018 - 2025 are presented, reflecting the global low-sulfur fuel oil import and export situation [59][60]. 3.6 Futures Market Indicators and Spreads - **Review and Logic**: The report reviews the significant increase in Asia-Pacific fuel oil prices during the week, with the Zhoushan market moving in tandem. In terms of spreads, the narrowing of the high-sulfur domestic and foreign spot price spreads and the widening of the LU domestic and foreign price spreads are analyzed [64]. - **Spot Market Spreads**: Data on the domestic and foreign spreads of 380 and 0.5% fuel oil spot prices from 2021 - 2026 are presented, showing the spread trends in the spot market [68][69]. - **Futures Market Spreads**: Data on the domestic and foreign spreads of FU and LU futures prices from 2021 - 2026 are presented, showing the spread trends in the futures market [71][73]. 3.7 FU and LU Positions, Volumes, and Warehouse Receipts - **Positions and Volumes**: Data on the trading volumes and positions of FU and LU futures contracts from 2020 - 2026 are presented, showing the trading activity and market participation in the fuel oil futures market [76][78][80]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: Data on the warehouse receipt quantities of FU and LU from 2020 - 2026 are presented, reflecting the inventory and delivery pressure in the fuel oil futures market [87][88].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term outlook for methanol is high - level oscillation, with limited upside and downside potential. Macroscopically, Trump's agreement information reduces the probability of geopolitical conflicts, and the nomination of the Fed chair causes a decline in precious metals, leading to a weak macro sentiment. However, the strong international energy prices support the downside of methanol. Fundamentally, the short - term supply - demand pattern of methanol is weak, and high port inventories suppress the upside of prices. [2][4] - In terms of valuation, the current MTO fundamentals are weak, and production profits are continuously compressed. The range of 2300 - 2350 yuan/ton is a strong fundamental resistance level. If methanol continues to rebound, the probability of negative feedback from MTO (coastal MTO factories) will increase. The lower valuation of methanol mainly refers to the cash - flow cost line of coal - based plants in Henan. The coal price increase in the fourth quarter stabilizes the cash - flow cost line of coal - based methanol at around 2000 - 2050 yuan/ton, providing support to the lower valuation. [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 This Week's Methanol Summary - **Supply**: From January 23 - 29, 2026, China's methanol production was 2037735 tons, an increase of 28820 tons from last week, and the plant capacity utilization rate was 91.21%, a week - on - week increase of 1.43%. Next week, production is expected to be about 2.0771 million tons, and the capacity utilization rate is expected to be about 92.98%, higher than the current period, as the planned restored capacity exceeds the capacity for maintenance and production cuts. [4] - **Demand**: - **Olefins**: The operating rate of the MTO industry increased slightly with the load increase of Ningbo Fude's MTO plant. - **Traditional downstream**: For dimethyl ether, the Xinxiang Xinlianxin plant may stop production next week, reducing supply and potentially lowering the overall capacity utilization rate. For glacial acetic acid, there are no planned maintenance activities next week, and the capacity utilization rate is expected to increase slightly. For formaldehyde, plants such as Xinxing Chemical and Gushi Huanyu may stop for maintenance, and Shandong Lianyi may further reduce the load, so supply is expected to decrease and the capacity utilization rate may decline. For chlorides, there are no clear plans for plant shutdowns, but some plants may restart, so the domestic methane chloride capacity utilization rate is expected to continue to rise. [4] - **Inventory**: - As of 11:30 on January 28, 2026, the inventory of China's sampled methanol producers was 424100 tons, a decrease of 14200 tons from the previous period, a week - on - week decrease of 3.24%; the pending order volume of sampled enterprises was 265700 tons, an increase of 27400 tons from the previous period, a week - on - week increase of 11.50%. - As of January 28, 2026, the inventory of China's methanol port samples was 1.4721 million tons, an increase of 14600 tons from the previous period, a week - on - week increase of 1.00%. Port inventories continued to accumulate, mainly in East China. There were 191400 tons of foreign vessel discharges, all in East China.提货 in the mainstream storage areas along the Yangtze River in Jiangsu weakened, and although there was an olefin plant restart in Zhejiang, inventories still accumulated due to the supply from foreign vessels. In South China, there was only a small amount of domestic trade replenishment in Guangdong, and the mainstream storage areas'提货 weakened, resulting in inventory reduction due to the lack of foreign vessel supply. In Fujian, there were no discharges, and inventories also decreased. [4] - **Strategy**: - **Unilateral**: Short - term high - level oscillation, with the upper resistance for 05 contract at 2350 - 2400 yuan/ton and the lower support at 2150 - 2180 yuan/ton. - **Inter - period**: The 5 - 9 spread may show a positive spread pattern. - **Inter - commodity**: The spread between MA and PP is in an oscillatory pattern. [4] 3.2 Price and Spread - Multiple graphs show the trends of methanol's basis, month - to - month spreads, warehouse receipts, domestic and international spot prices, and port - inland price differences from 2020 to 2026, including the basis of methanol on CZCE, 1 - 5 and 5 - 9 month - to - month spreads, warehouse receipt quantity, domestic low - end prices in Inner Mongolia, Henan, and other regions, international CFR prices in China and Southeast Asia, FOB price in Rotterdam, and price differences between Taicang and Hebei, Sichuan - Chongqing, etc. [7][12][16][20] 3.3 Supply - **Methanol Production and Operating Rate**: Graphs display the daily production and capacity utilization rates of methanol in China and abroad, as well as the weekly production in the Northwest region from 2018 to 2026. [25] - **Methanol Production by Process**: Graphs present the weekly production of methanol from different processes (coke oven gas, coal single - alcohol, natural gas, and coal co - alcohol) in China from 2018 to 2026. [27][28][29] - **Methanol Operating Rate by Region**: Graphs show the daily capacity utilization rates of methanol in different regions (Northwest, Southwest, East, and Central China) from 2018 to 2026. [30][31][32] - **Methanol Import - related**: Graphs show the monthly import volume, import cost, weekly arrival volume, and import profit of methanol in China from 2020 to 2026. [34][35][36][37] - **Methanol Cost and Profit**: Graphs display the daily production costs and profits of methanol from different processes (coal - based in Inner Mongolia, Shandong, coke oven gas - based in Hebei, and natural gas - based in Chongqing) from 2020 to 2026. [38][41] 3.4 Demand - **Methanol Downstream Operating Rate**: Graphs show the daily capacity utilization rates of methanol downstream industries (methanol - to - olefins, dimethyl ether, formaldehyde, glacial acetic acid, MTBE, etc.) in China from 2020 to 2026. [46][47][48][50] - **Methanol Downstream Profit**: Graphs present the daily production profits of methanol downstream industries (MTO in East China and Shandong, formaldehyde in Shandong, MTBE isomerization etherification in Shandong, glacial acetic acid in Jiangsu, etc.) from 2020 to 2026. [53][54][55][58] - **MTO Procurement Volume by Region**: Graphs display the procurement volumes of MTO production enterprises in China and different regions (East, Northwest, and Central China) from 2020 to 2026. [62][63][64][65] - **Traditional Downstream Methanol Raw Material Procurement Volume by Region**: Graphs show the raw material procurement volumes of traditional downstream methanol manufacturers in China and different regions (North, East, and Southwest) from 2020 to 2026. [67][68][69][70] - **Traditional Downstream Methanol Raw Material Inventory by Region**: Graphs display the raw material inventories of traditional downstream methanol manufacturers in China and different regions (Northwest, Shandong, and South) from 2020 to 2026. [72][73][74][75] 3.5 Inventory - **Methanol Factory Inventory**: Graphs show the weekly factory inventories of methanol in China and different regions (East, Northwest, and Inner Mongolia) from 2018 to 2026. [77][78][79][80] - **Methanol Port Inventory**: Graphs present the weekly port inventories of methanol in China and different regions (Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and Guangdong) from 2018 to 2026. [82][83][84]

Report Information - Report Title: Fuel Oil and Low-Sulfur Fuel Oil Weekly Report [1] - Report Date: February 1, 2026 [1] - Analyst: Liang Kefang [1] Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Views - The prices of domestic and international fuel oils have continued to fluctuate widely recently, and the short-term market has entered a situation where it is easy to rise and difficult to fall. High-sulfur fuel oil prices are expected to remain high, while low-sulfur fuel oil prices have support at the bottom and are unlikely to weaken significantly in the short term. [4] - The recommended trading strategies are: 1) Unilateral trading: Fuel oil prices are in a high-volatility environment in the short term, and there may be further upside potential. 2) Inter-period trading: The inter-period spreads of FU and LU have returned to backwardation and may return to contango after the geopolitical issues cool down. 3) Inter-variety trading: The crack spreads of FU and LU have rebounded slightly in the short term, and the LU-FU spread will continue to shrink in the short term. [4] - The estimated price ranges for FU and LU are 2850 - 2950 and 3200 - 3400, respectively. [4] Summary by Directory Supply - The number of global CDU maintenance units has increased slightly. Although the exports from the Middle East have continued to rise, they have not flowed into Singapore and Malaysia in the short term, and the imports in the Singapore market have not increased significantly for the time being. [4] - Data on the capacity utilization rates of Chinese refineries, global refinery maintenance, and domestic refinery fuel oil production and commercial volumes are presented in the form of charts. [6][13][15] Demand - Data on domestic and international fuel oil demand, including the actual consumption of marine fuel oil in China, the sales volume of fuel oil bunkering in Singapore, and the apparent consumption of fuel oil in China, are presented in the form of charts. [17][18] Inventory - Data on global fuel oil spot inventories, including the heavy oil inventories in Singapore, the fuel oil inventories in the European ARA region, the heavy distillate inventories in Fujairah, and the residual fuel oil inventories in the United States, are presented in the form of charts. [20][21][22] Price and Spread - Data on the FOB prices of fuel oil in the Asia-Pacific region, Europe, and the United States, as well as the prices of paper and derivatives, are presented in the form of charts. [26][31][32] - Data on fuel oil spot spreads, global fuel oil crack spreads, and global fuel oil paper monthly spreads are presented in the form of charts. [41][42][47] Import and Export - Data on domestic fuel oil import and export, as well as global high-sulfur and low-sulfur fuel oil import and export, are presented in the form of charts. [50][54][57] Futures Market Indicators and Inter-Region Spreads - The prices of Asia-Pacific fuel oil in the week increased significantly, and the trend in the Zhoushan market was in sync. The inter-region spreads of high-sulfur fuel oil narrowed, while those of LU widened. [63] - Data on the inter-region spreads in the spot market, as well as the changes in the trading volume, open interest, and warehouse receipts of FU and LU, are presented in the form of charts. [66][73][83]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - This week, the futures prices of the Container Shipping Index (European Line) rose collectively. The main contract EC2604 closed up 7.81%, and the far - month contracts rose between 3 - 11%. The latest SCFIS European Line settlement freight rate index was 1859.31, down 94.88 points from last week, a 4.9% month - on - month decline [6][37]. - The full - refund cancellation of photovoltaic products is expected to lead to a rush of shipments, boosting long - term contract cargo volume. Geopolitical conflicts and extreme weather in Northwest Europe have also short - term boosted freight rates [6][37]. - In December, China's foreign trade rebounded beyond expectations. Exports are the core driving force of China's economy, and it is expected to maintain a high growth rate in 2026 [6][37]. - In terms of spot freight rates, Maersk's price reduction pressure has slightly improved, but other shipping companies continue the pre - festival trend of reducing prices to attract cargo [6][37]. - The decline in eurozone inflation provides conditions for policy wait - and - see, but leading indicators such as PMI are still near historical lows, indicating a fragile recovery foundation [6][37]. - Overall, the slight price increase by multiple shipping companies at the current price end boosts futures prices, and the rush - export effect of the photovoltaic tax - refund policy supports contracts after April [6][38]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - The main contract price of the Container Shipping Index (European Line) futures rose significantly this week. The EC2604 contract's trading volume and open interest both decreased [13][15]. - The table shows the week - on - week changes and closing prices of different futures contracts and the spot index [10]. 2. News Review and Analysis - Trump said Putin agreed to a one - week suspension of air strikes on Ukraine, and plans to announce the nomination of the next Fed chair next week. The US plans to reopen Venezuelan airspace [18]. - The EU and India reached a free - trade agreement, with significant tariff cuts on both sides [18]. - The Fed maintained the benchmark interest rate at 3.50% - 3.75%. Unemployment has shown signs of stabilizing, and inflation remains relatively high [18]. - China and the UK reached a series of positive results, including developing a comprehensive strategic partnership and tariff cuts on whisky [18]. 3. Weekly Market Data - The basis and spread of the Container Shipping Index (European Line) futures contracts both contracted this week [24]. - The export container freight rate index fluctuated slightly this week [27]. - Global container capacity continued to grow, and European Line capacity rebounded slightly. BDI and BPI declined, and freight rates fluctuated slightly [30]. - The charter price of Panamax ships rebounded this week, and the spread between the offshore and on - shore RMB against the US dollar converged [33]. 4. Market Outlook and Strategy - The same as the core viewpoints, including the price trends of futures and spot, the impact of policies, and suggestions for investors [37][38]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short - term, the main 03 contract of asphalt will follow the strong oscillation. In February - March, as infrastructure projects gradually resume work and demand picks up, against the background of low asphalt inventory, low - cost raw material inventory will be gradually digested, and the transaction price of new raw materials with a premium will rise. The market may experience a resonance of tight supply and warming demand, and the 06 contract is expected to be bullish on dips. The recommended strategy is to go long on dips in the unilateral market, and to wait and see on arbitrage and options [6][40]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Introduction and Market Overview - **Market Review**: In January, asphalt prices fluctuated with crude oil costs. There were also independent contradictions such as the shortage of Venezuelan raw materials and rising costs. On January 3, the situation in Venezuela developed into a conflict. On the 5th, the asphalt futures opened higher and then declined. In mid - January, the Iran conflict escalated, driving up crude oil costs, and asphalt prices oscillated at a high level. The shortage of raw materials was priced in, and the overall cost of raw material premiums increased. In the domestic market, low refinery loads and inventories supported spot prices [5][10]. - **Market Outlook**: Crude oil is in a wide - range oscillation. The short - term main 03 contract of asphalt will follow the strong oscillation. In February - March, demand will pick up, and the 06 contract is expected to be bullish on dips [6]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Unilateral: Oscillate strongly, go long on dips and not chase the rise; Arbitrage: Wait and see; Options: Wait and see [7][40]. 3.2 Fundamental Situation 3.2.1 Market Review - In January, asphalt prices fluctuated with crude oil costs and had independent contradictions. In the domestic market, low refinery loads and inventories supported spot prices. At the beginning of the year, it was the seasonal off - season for demand. In the north, demand was basically stagnant due to low temperatures, while in the south, there was some rush - work demand, which was gradually weakening. It was expected that domestic refineries' low - cost raw material inventory could last for 1 - 2 months, and the raw material premium was rising [10]. 3.2.2 Supply Overview - In 2026, the estimated asphalt production in January - February was about 4.19 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 170,000 tons (+4%). Different refineries had different production changes. The planned asphalt production of local refineries in February was about 1.16 million tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 4% and a year - on - year increase of 20%. Although the Spring Festival and raw material supply would limit production, some refineries' production resumption and stable raw material supply would support the overall production [14]. - In 2025, the total domestic asphalt production was 28.468 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.992 million tons (+12%). The total import was 3.928 million tons, an increase of 465,000 tons (+13.4%) compared with 2024 [15][18]. 3.2.3 Demand Overview - In January 2026, domestic asphalt demand was in the seasonal off - season, with a slight month - on - month decline and obvious regional differentiation. In the south, rush - work demand supported the market, while in the north, demand was mainly for winter storage. In February, demand would further decline. Refinery shipments were at a medium level, and terminal demand decreased. The operating rates of road modified asphalt and the utilization rates of relevant capacities also declined [26][27][28]. 3.2.4 Inventory and Valuation - In January 2026, the total asphalt inventory was at an extremely low level compared with the same period. The total inventory decreased by 60,000 tons (-4%) month - on - month to about 1.28 million tons and decreased by 720,000 tons (-36%) year - on - year. Social inventory gradually accumulated, and refinery inventory remained low. The cost increased due to geopolitical conflicts, the raw material premium rose, and the asphalt processing profit decreased significantly. The basis also changed in different regions [31][33]. 3.3 Future Outlook and Strategy Recommendation - **Raw Materials**: Geopolitical turmoil continued, and crude oil costs oscillated widely. The expectation of tight asphalt raw material supply was basically priced in, and the near - term cost premium increased. There was no short - term concern about supply shortages [40]. - **Supply - Demand Outlook**: The short - term main 03 contract of asphalt will follow the strong oscillation, and the 06 contract is expected to be bullish on dips due to the possible resonance of tight supply and warming demand [40]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Unilateral: Oscillate strongly, go long on dips and not chase the rise; Arbitrage: Wait and see; Options: Wait and see [40].

Core Viewpoint - The metal market in January 2026 is characterized by significant volatility, particularly in copper prices, driven by macroeconomic policies, geopolitical conflicts, and industrial transformations [1][2]. Group 1: Copper Market Dynamics - Copper prices experienced extreme fluctuations, starting with a high opening at 108,280 yuan/ton before a sharp decline due to profit-taking by bulls [2]. - Three main factors driving the surge in copper prices include: 1. Macroeconomic conditions with the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates and the dollar dropping below 96, creating expectations for looser monetary policy [2]. 2. Supply constraints from major producers like Glencore and Antofagasta, with anticipated declines in copper output by 2025 [2]. 3. Increased demand from emerging sectors such as AI and photovoltaics, although actual market transactions remain weak due to high prices and pre-holiday inventory management [3]. Group 2: Other Metals Overview - Aluminum prices surged due to speculative trading but are expected to enter a correction phase as demand weakens ahead of the holiday season, despite low inventory levels providing some support [5]. - Zinc prices are influenced by a weaker dollar and geopolitical tensions, but the supply-demand balance is weak, with excess refining capacity and subdued downstream consumption [6]. - Lead prices are under pressure from macroeconomic factors and weak demand, with a potential for further declines as pre-holiday stockpiling ends [7]. - Nickel prices are experiencing a weak trend due to seasonal demand slowdown, although long-term support exists from supply constraints in Indonesia [8]. - Tin prices have shown volatility but are supported by long-term demand growth in sectors like AI and electric vehicles, despite short-term production slowdowns [9].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The overall investment rating for the energy and chemical industry is "Cautiously Bearish" [3] 2. Report's Core View - The report analyzes various energy and chemical products, including crude oil, LPG, L, PP, PVC, PTA, MEG, methanol, urea, LNG, asphalt, glass, and soda ash. It assesses the market conditions, supply - demand dynamics, and price trends of each product, providing corresponding investment strategies and price ranges for reference [1][2][4] 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Crude Oil - **Core View**: Short - term rebound, but long - term downward pressure due to supply - demand imbalance [1][7] - **Main Logic**: Geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East lead to short - term price increases, but the supply surplus pattern remains and the demand enters the off - season. The key variables are the change in US shale oil production and geopolitical developments in Russia - Ukraine and the Middle East [1][7] - **Strategy**: In the medium - to - long - term, the supply - demand fundamentals will improve after the first quarter. Short - term rebound, pay attention to Middle East geopolitical progress. SC focus range: [455 - 465] [9] 3.2 LPG - **Core View**: Rebound driven by cost, but long - term downward pressure [1][12] - **Main Logic**: The price is mainly affected by the cost of crude oil. In the short term, the price rebounds due to geopolitical disturbances, but in the long term, it is under pressure. The supply remains stable, while the downstream chemical demand weakens and the inventory accumulates [12] - **Strategy**: In the medium - to - long - term, the price has room for compression. Short - term uncertainty in cost and bearish fundamentals. PG focus range: [4250 - 4350] [13] 3.3 L - **Core View**: Stronger trend driven by cost support [14][17] - **Main Logic**: Short - term strong expectations dominate the market, following the cost to continue the strong oscillation. The inventory of Sinopec and PetroChina is at a low level in the same period, and the upstream and mid - stream inventories have no prominent contradictions. The production is expected to increase next week, and the basis has weakened. Pay attention to the verification of future demand [17] - **Strategy**: L focus range: [7000 - 7200] [17] 3.4 PP - **Core View**: Continued upward trend supported by cost [18][21] - **Main Logic**: The increase in February CP price and the strength of oil price provide strong cost support, but the spot price lags behind, and the basis weakens slightly. The current supply - demand is weak, and the supply pressure is relieved. The low PDH profit intensifies the maintenance expectation. Pay attention to the verification of future demand [21] - **Strategy**: PP focus range: [6800 - 7000] [21] 3.5 PVC - **Core View**: High inventory restricts the rebound space [22][25] - **Main Logic**: The social inventory reaches a new high, and the basis weakens slightly. The spot price of liquid caustic soda drops continuously, and the marginal cost support improves. There is a short - term export rush, but the long - term supply - demand is expected to weaken, and the high - inventory structure is difficult to change [25] - **Strategy**: V focus range: [4900 - 5100] [25] 3.6 PTA - **Core View**: Bullish outlook, hold long positions [26][28] - **Main Logic**: The valuation is at a relatively high level in the past three months. The supply - side maintenance is in line with the plan, and the downstream demand is seasonally weak. The cost - side PX is in a weak balance. There is a slight inventory accumulation in January - February, but the overall expectation is positive [27] - **Strategy**: Pay attention to the opportunity to buy on dips for TA05. TA05 focus range: [5330 - 5520] [28] 3.7 MEG - **Core View**: Cautious about chasing up due to supply - side disturbances [29][31] - **Main Logic**: The valuation is low. The domestic supply load increases, and the overseas devices have shutdowns and maintenance. The downstream demand is seasonally weak, and the port inventory accumulates. The short - term valuation is repaired [30] - **Strategy**: Pay attention to the opportunity to short on rebounds. EG05 focus range: [3920 - 4030] [31] 3.8 Methanol - **Core View**: Weak reality vs. strong expectation, geopolitical conflicts accelerate the price increase [32][34] - **Main Logic**: The absolute valuation is not low. The domestic production load declines, and the overseas production load slightly increases. The import volume in January is expected to exceed 1 million tons, and the supply pressure exists. The demand weakens slightly, and the cost support is weak and stable [34] - **Strategy**: The supply pressure exists, and the demand is weak. There is a game between weak reality and strong expectation. MA05 focus range: [2340 - 2400] [36] 3.9 Urea - **Core View**: Short - term rebound supported by cost and supply - demand [37][40] - **Main Logic**: The absolute valuation is not low, and the overall production load continues to rise. The demand is strong in the short term, and the winter storage is progressing steadily. The export of urea and fertilizers is relatively good, but the downstream demand enters the off - season, and the support is expected to weaken [38] - **Strategy**: Supply and demand are both strong, but the downstream demand enters the off - season, and the support is expected to weaken. Cautiously chase up. UR05 focus range: [1790 - 1820] [40] 3.10 LNG - **Core View**: The impact of the cold wave weakens, and the US gas price declines [41][44] - **Main Logic**: The short - term sharp rise in the US natural gas price due to the cold wave has been priced in, and the impact is gradually fading. The supply is relatively sufficient, and the upward space of the gas price is limited [44] - **Strategy**: In the winter, the demand for heating supports the gas price, but the supply is relatively sufficient. NG focus range: [3.655 - 4.080] [45] 3.11 Asphalt - **Core View**: High valuation, short - term callback risk [46][49] - **Main Logic**: The raw material of asphalt is favorable in the short term, but the basis is weak. The supply in February decreases, and the demand is in the off - season. The inventory increases [49] - **Strategy**: The valuation is returning to normal, and the supply uncertainty increases. Pay attention to geopolitical risks. BU focus range: [3350 - 3450] [50] 3.12 Glass - **Core View**: Weak supply - demand, range - bound oscillation [51][54] - **Main Logic**: The supply - demand is weak, and the enterprise inventory decreases slightly at a high level. The demand is in the off - season, and the daily melting volume is high. It is necessary to reduce the supply to digest the high inventory. Be cautious about chasing up before the cold repair is further realized [54] - **Strategy**: FG focus range: [1050 - 1100] [54] 3.13 Soda Ash - **Core View**: The factory inventory increases slightly, and the market is in a bearish consolidation [55][58] - **Main Logic**: The enterprise inventory turns from decline to increase, and the basis strengthens slightly. The real - estate demand is weak, and the demand for heavy soda is insufficient. The new production capacity is put into operation, and the supply is under pressure. Be cautious about chasing up before the maintenance is further intensified [58] - **Strategy**: SA focus range: [1200 - 1250] [58]

Core Viewpoint - Gold prices are experiencing a significant rise, supported by geopolitical tensions, monetary easing, and a global trend towards de-dollarization, with the current market dynamics favoring gold as a strategic asset [2][3]. Group 1: Market Performance - On January 29, the gold ETF (518800) rose by 5.49% [1]. - London gold prices approached $5,600 per ounce, while silver prices briefly surpassed $120 per ounce [2]. Group 2: Economic Factors - The Federal Reserve decided to maintain the benchmark interest rate at 3.5%-3.75% with a 10:2 voting ratio, which aligns with market expectations [2]. - Despite the Fed's decision supporting the dollar, there are concerns regarding the potential risks to the Fed's independence and the clarity of its interest rate policy [2]. Group 3: Supporting Factors for Gold Prices - Key drivers for gold prices include ongoing geopolitical conflicts (e.g., tensions in Iran, Greenland sovereignty disputes, and the Russia-Ukraine conflict), which enhance gold's safe-haven premium [3]. - The trend of global central banks purchasing gold and the acceleration of de-dollarization processes provide structural support for gold prices [3]. - From a supply-demand perspective, global gold reserves are projected to last until 2032 at current extraction rates, with resource-exporting countries tightening mineral export restrictions, increasing gold's strategic value [3]. Group 4: Industrial Demand - The demand for industrial gold is expected to grow due to advancements in AI and high-tech industries, while the photovoltaic sector's increased silver consumption strengthens the correlation between gold and silver [3]. Group 5: Market Indicators - The current RSI indicator for international spot gold is at a high level, and the volatility index has reached a near ten-year peak, indicating potential short-term market correction pressures [3]. - Investors are encouraged to monitor the gold ETF (518800) for suitable investment opportunities [3].

Group 1 - COMEX gold prices have surpassed $5,600, with spot gold exceeding $5,500, marking a historical high for nine consecutive days [1] - The launch of the only gold mining ETF in Hong Kong, E Fund Gold Mining (2824.HK), is set for January 30, providing investors with a tool to invest in leading global gold mining companies [1] - The Federal Reserve Chairman indicated that inflation is primarily driven by tariffs rather than demand factors, leading to a rapid increase in spot gold prices after the announcement [1] Group 2 - CITIC Securities highlights that gold prices have been reaching historical highs since 2025, influenced by factors such as de-dollarization, Federal Reserve independence, central bank gold purchases, U.S. tariffs, geopolitical conflicts, and inflation expectations [2] - Looking ahead to 2026, the allocation of gold as an alternative currency is expected to rise due to the restructuring of the global financial order and ongoing volatility in financial markets [2] - E Fund Gold Mining (2824.HK) focuses on the four major gold production regions and selects 30 leading gold mining stocks, including significant holdings in Zijin Mining and Zhaojin Mining, while also covering major overseas companies like Newmont and Barrick Gold [2]