1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given text. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, LPG prices first declined and then rose. In the first half - week, the decline was due to the fading of geopolitical sentiment and weak international oil prices. In the second half - week, the prices were driven up by the sharp rebound of oil and natural gas prices, the reduction of warrant pressure, and the strengthening of downstream propylene and polypropylene prices. The international propane supply remains tight, and the CP price fluctuates upward. Looking ahead, the market is mixed with long and short factors, and prices will tend to consolidate or slightly correct [4]. - For trading strategies, the unilateral view is wide - range oscillation; for arbitrage, it is recommended to short the spread between LPG and crude oil; for options, it is advisable to wait and see [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies - **Comprehensive Analysis**: LPG prices had a volatile week. The supply from refineries increased slightly this period, but the arrivals were still low. The combustion demand was supported, but the chemical demand weakened significantly, showing the negative feedback of high - priced propane. The market is expected to be range - bound or slightly decline [4]. - **Trading Strategies** - Unilateral: Wide - range oscillation [5]. - Arbitrage: Short the spread between LPG and crude oil [5]. - Options: Wait and see [5]. 3.2 Core Logic Analysis 3.2.1 Crude Oil - The crude oil market is in a state of mixed long - and - short factors and sideways consolidation. The cold wave in Europe and the US has a short - term positive impact on the market through the demand for heating fuel. Geopolitical risks have eased, and EIA data shows an increase in US commercial crude oil and gasoline inventories. The IEA slightly raised the global oil demand growth forecast for 2026 but emphasized a significant supply surplus in the first quarter [8][10]. 3.2.2 Supply - The utilization rate of domestic major refineries increased by 1.54% to 78.78%, reaching a high level for the same period, mainly due to the increased load of Yunnan Petrochemical and the start - up of Shanghai Petrochemical. The utilization rate of independent refineries decreased slightly by 0.27% to 60.75%, at a historically low level, due to insufficient crude oil reserves in some refineries. Overall, the supply increased this week, and it may continue to rise next week [13]. 3.2.3 Demand - The chemical demand weakened significantly. The PDH operating rate dropped by 10.82% to 62.25%, at a low historical level due to the shutdown of some devices. The MTBE operating rate increased slightly by 0.44% to 68.01%. The capacity utilization rate of alkylation oil decreased by 0.96 percentage points. The negative feedback of high - priced overseas propane on the demand side became evident [16]. 3.2.4 Inventory - Port inventories decreased due to a slight reduction in arrivals and weakened chemical demand. Factory inventories increased because of heavy snowfall and increased supply, which led to poor sales in some areas. The inventory trends of tertiary stations in different regions were divergent [20]. 3.3 Weekly Data Tracking 3.3.1 Price Data - Relevant price data includes Brent, WTI, CP, FEI, and LPG futures prices, showing their trends over different time periods [24]. 3.3.2 Spread Data - It shows the spread data between different LPG products, such as the spread between South China civil LPG, East China civil LPG, Shandong ether - post C4, and the futures contract, as well as the seasonal trends of LPG basis [27]. 3.3.3 Disk Profit Data - It presents the import profit of LPG based on CP and FEI, as well as the profit of PDH propylene and polypropylene [30]. 3.3.4 Spot Profit Data - It shows the import profit of LPG based on FOB, CFR, and the profit of PDH propylene and polypropylene, as well as the profit of isomerization etherification and dehydrogenation etherification [33]. 3.3.5 Supply Data - It includes the capacity utilization rates of major and independent refineries, LPG commercial volume, crude oil processing volume, and the maintenance schedules of domestic major refineries and PDH devices [36][38][40]. 3.3.6 Inventory Data - It shows the inventory data of LPG ports, the capacity utilization rate of tertiary stations in different regions, and the port capacity ratio [46].

Sugar Market - Raw sugar prices continue to fluctuate within a range, with Thailand's sugarcane crushing volume for the 25/26 season at 29.26 million tons, down 16.09% from last year [2][15] - The sugar content in sugarcane is 11.95%, slightly up from 11.87% last year, while the sugar production rate is 9.79%, down from 9.81% [2][15] - Domestic sugar prices are quoted at 5260-5360 CNY/ton in Guangxi and 5110-5160 CNY/ton in Yunnan, with import estimates for quota within 4020-4030 CNY/ton and outside quota at 5090-5100 CNY/ton [2][15] Cotton Market - The USDA's January report has reduced global cotton production expectations, with U.S. and Indian production down, while China's production is expected to increase [5][17] - The global cotton production forecast for 2025/26 is 26.003 million tons, a decrease of 78,000 tons from the previous month [5][18] - As of January 15, China's cotton processing volume is 7.128 million tons, an increase of 1.15 million tons year-on-year [5][21] Demand and Retail - Retail sales growth in December slowed, particularly in clothing and textiles, with a year-on-year increase of only 0.6% in clothing and related goods [5][23] - The overall yarn production load was 48.98%, down 0.4 percentage points week-on-week, while cotton yarn factory load was 45.9%, down 0.2 percentage points [5][23] Import and Export - The cotton price difference between domestic and international markets remains high, with cotton and yarn imports reaching recent highs, while clothing exports remain weak [5][24] - In December, China imported 180,000 tons of cotton, an increase of 60,000 tons month-on-month and 40,000 tons year-on-year [5][25] - Clothing and accessory exports in December amounted to $13.412 billion, down 10.19% year-on-year [5][25] Inventory Levels - Commercial cotton inventory in China as of mid-January is 5.8623 million tons, up 77,600 tons month-on-month and 83,300 tons year-on-year [5][26] - The overall inventory of yarn is approximately 32 days, with a slight decrease week-on-week [5][26] International Market Dynamics - The macroeconomic environment is experiencing disturbances, with limited fundamental drivers, leading to a predominantly fluctuating market [5][10] - The USDA's January report indicates a slight improvement in the supply-demand balance for U.S. cotton, but the overall market remains oversupplied [5][27] Domestic Market Focus - The focus is shifting back to fundamentals as the market anticipates the impact of upcoming policies, with cotton production expected to reach a ten-year high [5][28] - The cotton commercial inventory is at a peak for the 2025/26 season, expected to decline after February [5][28]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Urea: Not clearly rated [1] - Methanol: Not clearly rated [1] - Pure Benzene: ★☆★ [1] - Styrene: ★☆☆ [1] - Propylene: ★☆★ [1] - Plastic: ★☆★ [1] - PVC: ★☆☆ [1] - Caustic Soda: ★☆☆ [1] - PX: ★☆☆ [1] - PTA: ★☆☆ [1] - Ethylene Glycol: ★☆★ [1] - Short Fiber: ★☆☆ [1] - Glass: ☆☆☆ [1] - Soda Ash: ☆☆☆ [1] - Bottle Chip: ★☆☆ [1] - Olefins: ★☆☆ [1] Core Viewpoints - The overall chemical market shows a mixed trend with different products having different supply - demand situations and price trends. Some products are expected to have inventory accumulation around the Spring Festival, while others may see supply contractions or demand improvements in the future [2][3] - Different products' investment opportunities vary, such as considering PX processing difference long - positions and positive spreads for PX and PTA in the second quarter, and seizing segmental market opportunities for ethylene glycol [3] Summary by Related Catalogs Olefins - Polyolefins - Propylene futures rose, with no obvious supply pressure, reduced premium in real - order auctions, and increased downstream factory's wait - and - see sentiment [2] - Plastic and polypropylene futures rose, but with limited fundamental support. Polyethylene will face increased supply pressure and weakened demand. Polypropylene has some support from supply, but overall demand is weak [2] Polyester - PX has new capacity in the second half of the year while PTA has none. There is an expected inventory accumulation around the Spring Festival due to demand decline. There are investment opportunities in the second quarter but need downstream demand cooperation [3] - Ethylene glycol has a small decline in weekly output, expected supply - demand double - drop and inventory accumulation around the Spring Festival. There may be a phased improvement in the second quarter, but it is still under long - term pressure [3] - Short - fiber enterprises have high loads and low inventory, but downstream orders are weak. The price rises with raw materials due to increased downstream stocking [3] - Bottle - chip's processing difference is repaired, and it rises with market sentiment in the short term, but still faces long - term capacity pressure [3] Pure Benzene - Styrene - Pure benzene futures rose, with reduced supply and increased demand from styrene, leading to significant inventory reduction in East China ports. The short - term market is expected to be volatile and strong, and slow inventory reduction in the long - term [5] - Styrene futures rose, but the high price may restrict its upward space due to downstream's high - price aversion and reduced industry profit [5] Coal Chemical Industry - Methanol futures rose in the afternoon. There is a short - term expectation of strong market due to expected import reduction in the first quarter and macro - atmosphere boost, despite high port inventory [6] - Urea futures showed a strong - side oscillation. With increased downstream factory开工 and agricultural demand approaching, it is likely to continue strong - side oscillation in the range [6] Chlor - Alkali - PVC is running strongly. There is still inventory pressure, but it is expected to have a rising center of gravity due to possible capacity reduction and export rush [7] - Caustic soda futures are in an oscillating trend. The industry has high inventory and high - level operation. The profit of chlor - alkali integration is expected to be further compressed [7] Soda Ash - Glass - Soda ash is in an oscillating and strong - side trend. It still faces supply - demand surplus pressure, with a short - term low - valuation following macro - fluctuations and a long - term high - selling strategy [8] - Glass is in a strong - side trend. There may be inventory accumulation pressure due to downstream holidays, and it may follow macro - sentiment fluctuations [8]

Copper - Copper prices showed a strong fluctuation overnight, with domestic refined copper imports continuing to incur losses [3][12] - The macroeconomic environment indicates that the US Q3 GDP was revised slightly upward to 4.4%, marking the fastest growth in two years, while core PCE inflation remained at 2.9% [3][12] - Domestic demand for copper is entering a low season, with inventory accumulation stronger than in the past two years, leading to increased divergence within the industry [3][12] - Despite short-term uncertainties, the medium-term upward trend in copper prices is expected to remain unchanged [3][12] Nickel & Stainless Steel - LME nickel rose by 0.7% to $18,100 per ton, while SHFE nickel increased by 0.28% to ¥142,730 per ton [4][13] - LME nickel inventory decreased by 168 tons to 284,496 tons, while SHFE warehouse receipts increased by 432 tons to 41,584 tons [4][13] - Indonesia's nickel ore production is expected to decline by 10% to 15% compared to last year, which may impact market dynamics [4][13] - The short-term nickel price is supported by Indonesian policies, but potential quota supplements and high inventory levels pose upward pressure [5][13] Aluminum & Aluminum Alloys - Aluminum oxide prices showed a slight increase, with AO2605 closing at ¥2,676 per ton, up 0.26% [6][14] - SHFE aluminum prices also increased, with AL2603 closing at ¥24,100 per ton, up 0.77% [6][14] - The overall market is experiencing inventory accumulation, and the aluminum price may face a short-term correction despite strong support at high levels [6][14] Industrial Silicon & Polysilicon - Industrial silicon prices showed a strong fluctuation, with the main contract closing at ¥8,825 per ton, up 1.03% [7][15] - Polysilicon prices also increased, with the main contract closing at ¥50,515 per ton, up 2.4% [7][15] - The market is transitioning from speculative trading to a focus on fundamentals, with pressures from supply-demand imbalances and regulatory scrutiny [7][15] Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate futures rose by 2.55% to ¥168,780 per ton, with battery-grade lithium carbonate prices increasing by ¥6,000 to ¥164,500 per ton [8][16] - The supply side saw a weekly production decrease of 388 tons, while social inventory of lithium carbonate decreased by 783 tons to 108,898 tons [8][16] - The market is expected to experience strong fluctuations in the short term, with ongoing demand for replenishment ahead of the Spring Festival [8][16]

1. Industry Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - For crude oil, although the geopolitical premium has disappeared and OPEC's production increase is minimal with supply not yet surging, short - term oil prices should not be overly bearish. Maintain a range strategy of buying low and selling high, but currently, wait and see as the price needs to test OPEC's export price - support willingness. [2] - For methanol, with low valuation and an improving outlook next year, the downside is limited. Despite short - term negative pressure, geopolitical instability in Iran brings expectations, and there is feasibility to buy on dips. [3] - For urea, the current situation of internal - external price differences has opened the import window, and with the expected increase in production at the end of January, negative fundamental expectations are coming, so take profits on rallies. [6] - For rubber, with a weak seasonal pattern, it is expected to continue to decline after consolidation. Adopt a bearish approach, short on rebounds if RU2605 breaks below 16000, and partially build positions for the strategy of buying NR main contract and shorting RU2609. [11] - For PVC, the fundamentals are poor with strong supply and weak demand in China. Short - term electricity price expectations and pre - April 1 export rush support the price, but mid - term, short on rallies before significant industry production cuts. [14] - For pure benzene and styrene, the non - integrated profit of styrene is moderately high with limited room for upward valuation repair. As the non - integrated profit has significantly recovered, gradually take profits. [17] - For polyethylene, OPEC+ plans to suspend production growth in Q1 2026, and crude oil prices may have bottomed. Although the spot price has risen, the valuation has room to decline further. With no new capacity planned in H1 2026 and reduced coal - based inventory, the price has support, but demand is in a seasonal downturn. [20] - For polypropylene, the EIA report forecasts a slight reduction in global oil inventory, and the supply surplus may ease. With no new capacity in H1 2026, the supply pressure is relieved. In a context of weak supply and demand, the inventory pressure is high. Wait for the supply - surplus situation to change in Q1 next year for the price to bottom. Long the PP5 - 9 spread on dips. [23] - For PX, it is expected to continue to accumulate inventory before the maintenance season. After the Spring Festival, both PX and its downstream PTA will have strong supply - demand, and there are mid - term opportunities to buy on dips following crude oil. [26] - For PTA, it is expected to enter the Spring Festival inventory - accumulation stage with high short - term maintenance on the supply side and weakening demand due to seasonality. There is room for valuation to rise after the Spring Festival, and look for mid - term buying opportunities. [28] - For ethylene glycol, the overall load is still high, and the inventory - accumulation cycle at ports will continue. There is an expectation of further profit compression and load reduction under new - plant commissioning pressure. Be cautious of rebound risks in the short term due to the tense situation in Iran and cold wave expectations. [30] 3. Summary of Each Product Crude Oil - **Market Information**: INE main crude oil futures rose 5.30 yuan/barrel, or 1.20%, to 446.40 yuan/barrel. Related refined product futures, high - sulfur fuel oil rose 48.00 yuan/ton, or 1.89%, to 2592.00 yuan/ton; low - sulfur fuel oil rose 51.00 yuan/ton, or 1.65%, to 3135.00 yuan/ton. [1] - **Strategy**: Maintain a range strategy of buying low and selling high, but wait and see currently. [2] Methanol - **Market Information**: Regional spot prices in Jiangsu changed by 5 yuan/ton, Lunan by - 5 yuan/ton, Henan by 0 yuan/ton, Hebei by 0 yuan/ton, and Inner Mongolia by - 2.5 yuan/ton. The main futures contract changed by 45.00 yuan/ton to 2260 yuan/ton, and MTO profit changed by 1 yuan. [3] - **Strategy**: Buy on dips as the valuation is low and the outlook is improving. [3] Urea - **Market Information**: Regional spot prices in Shandong changed by 0 yuan/ton, Henan by - 10 yuan/ton, Hebei by 0 yuan/ton, Hubei by 0 yuan/ton, Jiangsu by - 10 yuan/ton, Shanxi by - 20 yuan/ton, and Northeast by 0 yuan/ton. The overall basis was - 36 yuan/ton. The main futures contract changed by - 3 yuan/ton to 1776 yuan/ton. [5] - **Strategy**: Take profits on rallies due to expected negative fundamentals. [6] Rubber - **Market Information**: Rubber prices rebounded with a volatile pattern. The long - side reasons include limited production growth in Southeast Asian rubber forests, a seasonal upward trend in the second half of the year, and improved demand expectations in China. The short - side reasons are uncertain macro expectations, increased supply, and a seasonal demand slump. As of January 15, 2026, the operating rate of Shandong tire enterprises' all - steel tires was 62.84%, up 2.30 percentage points from last week and 2.78 percentage points from the same period last year; the semi - steel tire operating rate was 74.35%, up 6.35 percentage points from last week but down 4.09 percentage points from the same period last year. As of January 11, 2026, China's total natural rubber social inventory was 125.6 million tons, a 1.9% increase. Spot prices: Thai standard mixed rubber was 14700 (+100) yuan, STR20 was 1885 (+15) dollars, etc. [8][9][10] - **Strategy**: Adopt a bearish approach, short on rebounds if RU2605 breaks below 16000, and partially build positions for the strategy of buying NR main contract and shorting RU2609. [11] PVC - **Market Information**: The PVC05 contract rose 106 yuan to 4849 yuan. The spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 4570 (+70) yuan/ton, the basis was - 279 (- 36) yuan/ton, and the 5 - 9 spread was - 114 (+4) yuan/ton. The overall PVC operating rate was 79.6%, unchanged from the previous period. The demand - side downstream operating rate was 43.9%, down 0.1%. Factory inventory was 31.1 million tons (- 1.7), and social inventory was 114.4 million tons (+3). [13] - **Strategy**: Short on rallies mid - term before significant industry production cuts. [14] Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: The spot price of pure benzene in East China was 5760 yuan/ton, unchanged; the active contract closing price was 6000 yuan/ton, unchanged; the basis was - 240 yuan/ton, narrowing by 195 yuan/ton. The spot price of styrene was 7600 yuan/ton, up 250 yuan/ton; the active contract closing price was 7694 yuan/ton, up 386 yuan/ton; the basis was - 94 yuan/ton, weakening by 136 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 70.86%, down 0.06%; the Jiangsu port inventory was 9.35 million tons, a reduction of 0.71 million tons. The demand - side three - S weighted operating rate was 41.91%, up 1.02%. [16] - **Strategy**: Gradually take profits as the non - integrated profit of styrene has significantly recovered. [17] Polyethylene - **Market Information**: The main contract closing price was 6814 yuan/ton, up 148 yuan/ton; the spot price was 6640 yuan/ton, up 65 yuan/ton; the basis was - 174 yuan/ton, weakening by 83 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 81.56%, up 1.23%. The production enterprise inventory was 35.03 million tons, a reduction of 4.51 million tons; the trader inventory was 2.92 million tons, unchanged. The downstream average operating rate was 41.1%, down 0.11%. The LL5 - 9 spread was - 31 yuan/ton, narrowing by 3 yuan/ton. [19] - **Strategy**: The price has support from reduced coal - based inventory and OPEC+ production suspension, but demand is in a seasonal downturn. [20] Polypropylene - **Market Information**: The main contract closing price was 6624 yuan/ton, up 139 yuan/ton; the spot price was 6660 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton; the basis was 36 yuan/ton, weakening by 39 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 76.61%, down 0.01%. The production enterprise inventory was 43.1 million tons, a reduction of 3.67 million tons; the trader inventory was 19.39 million tons, a reduction of 1.08 million tons; the port inventory was 7.06 million tons, a reduction of 0.05 million tons. The downstream average operating rate was 52.58%, down 0.02%. The LL - PP spread was 190 yuan/ton, widening by 9 yuan/ton; the PP5 - 9 spread was - 25 yuan/ton, widening by 9 yuan/ton. [21][22] - **Strategy**: Wait for the supply - surplus situation to change in Q1 next year for the price to bottom. Long the PP5 - 9 spread on dips. [23] PX - **Market Information**: The PX03 contract rose 184 yuan to 7390 yuan; PX CFR rose 19 dollars to 907 dollars. The basis was - 70 yuan (- 30), and the 3 - 5 spread was - 78 yuan (- 4). The Chinese PX load was 88.9%, down 0.5%; the Asian load was 81%, up 0.4%. In January, South Korea's PX exports to China decreased by 6.8 million tons year - on - year. The inventory at the end of November was 446 million tons, a monthly increase of 6 million tons. [25] - **Strategy**: Look for mid - term buying opportunities following crude oil after the Spring Festival. [26] PTA - **Market Information**: The PTA05 contract rose 144 yuan to 5298 yuan; the East China spot price rose 70 yuan to 5155 yuan. The basis was - 71 yuan (- 1), and the 5 - 9 spread was 34 yuan (- 10). The PTA load was 76.6%, up 0.3%. The downstream load was 86.7%, down 1.6%. The social inventory (excluding credit warehouse receipts) on January 16 was 204.5 million tons, an increase of 4 million tons. The spot processing fee was 353 yuan, down 31 yuan; the futures processing fee was 450 yuan, up 23 yuan. [27] - **Strategy**: Expect inventory accumulation during the Spring Festival. Look for mid - term buying opportunities. [28] Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: The EG05 contract rose 158 yuan to 3847 yuan; the East China spot price rose 90 yuan to 3660 yuan. The basis was - 109 yuan (+1), and the 5 - 9 spread was - 103 yuan (+14). The ethylene glycol load was 73%, down 1.4%. The downstream load was 86.7%, down 1.6%. The import arrival forecast was 20.5 million tons, and the East China port departure on January 21 was 0.76 million tons. The port inventory was 79.5 million tons, a reduction of 0.7 million tons. The naphtha - based profit was - 1059 yuan, the domestic ethylene - based profit was - 862 yuan, and the coal - based profit was - 5 yuan. [29] - **Strategy**: Be cautious of rebound risks in the short term and expect further valuation compression mid - term without significant production cuts. [30]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - Unilateral: Cautiously bullish. - Arbitrage: Neutral [5] 2. Core View - Zinc prices have declined, and there is restocking in the spot market, but social inventories are increasing and are about to exceed the five - year average. Spot liquidity has improved, and procurement remains cautious. - The TC of domestic and imported zinc ores continues to rise, smelting profits are increasing, and the supply is expected to increase. - The pressure on the supply side is prominent, and domestic inventory accumulation is expected to continue even during the peak consumption season. If the peak - season consumption expectations are not met, zinc prices will face significant pressure [4] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Spot Market - LME zinc spot premium is -$43.57 per ton. - SMM Shanghai zinc spot price is 24,210 yuan/ton, with a premium of 55 yuan/ton; SMM Guangdong zinc spot price is 24,200 yuan/ton, with a premium of 15 yuan/ton; Tianjin zinc spot price is 24,140 yuan/ton, with a premium of -15 yuan/ton [1] Futures Market - On January 21, 2026, the SHFE zinc main contract opened at 24,300 yuan/ton and closed at 24,350 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 146,086 lots, and the open interest was 121,693 lots. The highest price was 24,390 yuan/ton, and the lowest was 24,070 yuan/ton [2] Inventory - As of January 21, 2026, the total inventory of zinc ingots in seven regions monitored by SMM was 122,000 tons, an increase of 3,500 tons from the previous period. - As of January 21, 2026, LME zinc inventory was 111,850 tons, a decrease of 450 tons from the previous trading day [3]

甲 醇 日期 动力煤期 货 江苏现货 华南现货 鲁南折盘 面 西南折盘面 河北折盘 面 西北折盘 面 CFR中国 CFR东南 亚 进口利润 主力基差 盘面MTO 利润 2026/01/1 5 801 2247 2243 2345 - 2315 2435 - 322 - -25 - 2026/01/1 6 801 2230 2231 2345 - 2315 2435 264 322 -16 -25 - 2026/01/1 9 801 2217 2203 2355 - 2315 2410 264 322 -40 -25 - 2026/01/2 0 801 2208 2178 2355 - 2285 2388 262 322 -29 0 - 2026/01/2 1 801 2213 2200 2355 - 2285 2385 - - - 0 - 日度变化 0 5 22 0 - 0 -3 - - - 0 - 观点 伊朗矛盾继续发酵，mto出现抵抗，兴兴停车，盛虹2月停车，鲁西下周停车，其余也有降幅计划，预计等待伊朗 正常后重新开车， 目前看来甲醇往上往下都难，MTO利润卡住了上限，除非其余下游涨价，目前看来偏空或卖看 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - Not provided in the given content Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price - For silicon ferroalloy, prices vary by region and type, with daily and weekly changes. For example, the latest price of Ningxia 72 is 5250, with a weekly change of -70; the latest price of Tianjin 72 for export is 1045 USD, with a weekly change of 20 [1]. - For silicon manganese, prices also vary by region and type, with corresponding daily and weekly changes. For example, the latest price of Inner Mongolia 6517 is 5680, with a weekly change of -70 [1]. Supply - For silicon ferroalloy, data on production volume, capacity utilization, and export volume are presented. For example, the monthly production volume of 136 silicon ferroalloy enterprises in China from 2022 - 2026 is shown, and the monthly capacity utilization of 136 silicon ferroalloy production enterprises in Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, and Shaanxi is also provided [4]. - For silicon manganese, data on production volume, procurement volume, and export volume are presented. For example, the weekly production volume of silicon manganese in China from 2022 - 2026 is shown, and the monthly procurement volume and price of Hebei Iron and Steel Group are also provided [6]. Demand - For silicon ferroalloy, demand - related data such as the production volume of crude steel, stainless - steel crude steel, and the procurement volume of Hebei Iron and Steel Group are presented [4]. - For silicon manganese, demand - related data such as the production volume of crude steel and the estimated demand in China are presented [4][7]. Inventory - For silicon ferroalloy, inventory data of 60 sample enterprises in China, Ningxia, Inner Mongolia, and Shaanxi are presented, as well as data on warehouse receipts, effective forecasts, and inventory average available days in different regions [5]. - For silicon manganese, inventory data such as warehouse receipts, effective forecasts, and inventory average available days in China are presented, as well as the inventory of 63 sample enterprises in China [7]. Cost and Profit - For silicon ferroalloy, cost - related data such as electricity prices in different regions, the market price of semi - coke, and profit - related data such as production costs, profits from converting to the main contract, and export profits in Ningxia and Inner Mongolia are presented [5]. - For silicon manganese, profit - related data such as profits in Inner Mongolia, Guangxi, and different regions in China, and profits from converting to the main contract in Guangxi and Ningxia are presented [7].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, the cracking of Singapore 380 strengthened, the monthly spread rebounded significantly, the high - sulfur cracking in Europe rebounded, the monthly spread rebounded significantly, and the high - sulfur EW oscillated at a high level. The cracking of Singapore 0.5% was at a historical low for the same period, rebounded month - on - month, the inter - month spread strengthened slightly, and the basis oscillated at a low level. [3] - In terms of inventory, Singapore residue oil slightly increased in stock, which was at a historical high year - on - year, ARA residue oil slightly decreased in stock, and Fujairah residue oil increased in stock. [3][4] - This week, the situation in Iran affected the global heavy oil valuation. In the short term, the driving force of high - sulfur was stronger than that of low - sulfur. The high - sulfur spot tightened, the cracking rebounded, and the short - term downside space was limited, while the low - sulfur external market remained weak. [4] 3. Data Summaries Rotterdam Fuel Oil Data | Type | 2026/01/15 | 2026/01/16 | 2026/01/19 | 2026/01/20 | 2026/01/21 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Rotterdam 3.5% HSF O Swap M1 | 333.76 | 341.06 | 336.61 | 344.17 | 347.28 | 3.11 | | Rotterdam 0.5% VLS FO Swap M1 | 384.56 | 389.58 | 385.89 | 387.29 | 392.05 | 4.76 | | Rotterdam HSFO - Brent M1 | - 10.45 | - 10.09 | - 10.43 | - 9.82 | - 9.95 | - 0.13 | | Rotterdam 10ppm Gasoil Swap M1 | 621.40 | 634.20 | 630.80 | 645.50 | 660.65 | 15.15 | | Rotterdam VLSFO - GO M1 | - 236.84 | - 244.62 | - 244.91 | - 258.21 | - 268.60 | - 10.39 | | LGO - Brent M1 | 21.81 | 23.19 | 22.94 | 23.87 | 23.87 | 0.00 | | Rotterdam VLSFO - HSFO M1 | 50.80 | 48.52 | 49.28 | 43.12 | 44.77 | 1.65 | [1] Singapore Fuel Oil Data | Type | 2026/01/15 | 2026/01/16 | 2026/01/19 | 2026/01/20 | 2026/01/21 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Singapore 380cst M1 | 359.16 | 356.84 | 359.12 | 355.91 | 372.09 | [1] | Singapore 180cst M1 | 363.46 | 363.27 | 364.49 | 364.98 | 374.36 | [1] | Singapore VLSFO M1 | 426.98 | 426.45 | 427.95 | 423.67 | 436.23 | [1] | Singapore GO M1 | 81.65 | 81.51 | 82.07 | 82.46 | 85.51 | [1] | Singapore 380cst - Brent M1 | - 7.10 | - 6.79 | - 6.30 | - 6.65 | - 5.97 | [1] | Singapore VLSFO - GO M1 | - 177.23 | - 176.72 | - 179.37 | - 186.53 | - 196.54 | [1] | Singapore FOB 380cst | 358.88 | 358.34 | 359.26 | 355.87 | 362.64 | 6.77 | [2] | Singapore FOB VLSFO | 429.02 | 429.37 | 431.00 | 425.98 | 428.48 | 2.50 | [2] | Singapore 380cst Basis | - 1.45 | - 1.65 | - 1.45 | - 0.80 | 0.25 | 1.05 | [2] | Singapore High - sulfur Domestic - Foreign Spread | 13.9 | 13.7 | 12.6 | 10.8 | 12.1 | 1.3 | [2] | Singapore Low - sulfur Domestic - Foreign Spread | 14.9 | 15.3 | 15.6 | 16.9 | 16.3 | - 0.6 | [2] Domestic FU Data | Type | 2026/01/15 | 2026/01/16 | 2026/01/19 | 2026/01/20 | 2026/01/21 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | FU 01 | 2510 | 2485 | 2478 | 2467 | 2482 | 15 | [2] | FU 05 | 2566 | 2520 | 2526 | 2507 | 2539 | 32 | [2] | FU 09 | 2533 | 2498 | 2500 | 2487 | 2510 | 23 | [2] | FU 01 - 05 | - 56 | - 35 | - 48 | - 40 | - 57 | - 17 | [2] | FU 05 - 09 | 33 | 22 | 26 | 20 | 29 | 9 | [2] | FU 09 - 01 | 23 | 13 | 22 | 20 | 28 | 8 | [2] Domestic LU Data | Type | 2026/01/15 | 2026/01/16 | 2026/01/19 | 2026/01/20 | 2026/01/21 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | LU 01 | 3166 | 3088 | 3136 | 3120 | 3135 | 15 | [3] | LU 05 | 3074 | 3041 | 3052 | 3066 | 3071 | 5 | [3] | LU 09 | 3090 | 3056 | 3073 | 3085 | 3090 | 5 | [3] | LU 01 - 05 | 92 | 47 | 84 | 54 | 64 | 10 | [3] | LU 05 - 09 | - 16 | - 15 | - 21 | - 19 | - 19 | 0 | [3] | LU 09 - 01 | - 76 | - 32 | - 63 | - 35 | - 45 | - 10 | [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - The economic growth is characterized by slower steel inventory accumulation compared to previous years, with power plant daily consumption fluctuating at a high level, while inflation shows a nationwide increase in pork prices and oil prices oscillating within a range [2][3] 3. Summary of Each Section 3.1 Economic Growth: Slower Steel Inventory Accumulation than Previous Years 3.1.1 Production: High - level Fluctuation of Power Plant Daily Consumption - Power plant daily consumption is fluctuating at a high level. On January 20, the average daily consumption of 6 major power - generating groups was 857,000 tons, a 3.8% increase from January 13. On January 16, the daily consumption of power plants in eight southern provinces was 2.152 million tons, a 5.3% decrease from January 8 [5][12] - The overall blast furnace operating rate has declined. On January 16, the national blast furnace operating rate was 78.8%, a 0.5 - percentage - point decrease from January 9, and the capacity utilization rate was 85.5%, a 0.6 - percentage - point decrease from January 9. However, the blast furnace operating rate of Tangshan steel mills increased by 0.8 percentage points to 90.8% on January 16 compared to January 9 [5][16] - The tire operating rate has significantly rebounded. On January 15, the operating rate of all - steel truck tires was 62.9%, a 4.9 - percentage - point increase from January 8, and the operating rate of semi - steel car tires was 73.4%, a 7.6 - percentage - point increase from January 8. Meanwhile, the operating rate of looms in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions has continued to decline [5][19] 3.1.2 Demand: Slower Steel Inventory Accumulation than Previous Years - The sales volume of new houses in 30 cities has weakened month - on - month. From January 1 - 20, the average daily sales area of commercial housing in 30 large and medium - sized cities was 160,000 square meters, a 48.0% decrease from the same period in December, a 39.5% decrease from the same period in January last year, and a 38.4% decrease from the same period in January 2024 [5][25] - The retail growth of the automotive market is weak. In January, retail sales decreased by 32% year - on - year, and wholesale sales decreased by 40% year - on - year [5][29] - Steel prices have declined weakly. On January 20, the prices of rebar, wire rod, hot - rolled coil, and cold - rolled coil decreased by 0.6%, 0.5%, 0.6%, and 0.3% respectively compared to January 13. The inventory accumulation of steel is slower than in previous years [5][34] - Cement prices have continued to break previous lows. On January 20, the national cement price index decreased by 0.6% compared to January 13, with prices in the East China and Yangtze River regions showing slightly weaker performance than the national average [5][37] - The glass price has ended its rebound. On January 20, the active glass futures contract price was 1,064 yuan/ton, a 4.9% decrease from January 13 [5][42] - The near - end decline of the container shipping freight rate index has widened. On January 16, the CCFI index increased by 4.2% compared to December 26, while the SCFI index decreased by 0.5% [5][46] 3.2 Inflation: Nationwide Increase in Pork Prices 3.2.1 CPI: Nationwide Increase in Pork Prices - Pork prices have increased nationwide. On January 20, the average wholesale price of pork was 18.5 yuan/kg, a 2.4% increase from January 13. The month - on - month price has turned upward [5][50] - The agricultural product price index has increased seasonally before the Spring Festival. On January 20, the agricultural product wholesale price index increased by 1.6% compared to January 13. By variety, the price increases are in the order of eggs (5.7%) > pork (2.4%) > vegetables (2.4%) > fruits (1.3%) > mutton (0.7%) > beef (0.4%) > chicken (- 1.3%) [5][54] 3.2.2 PPI: Oil Price Oscillation within a Range - Oil prices are oscillating within a range. On January 20, the spot prices of Brent and WTI crude oil were $68.1 and $60.4 per barrel respectively, a 0.9% and 1.3% decrease from January 13 [5][57] - Copper and aluminum prices have declined. On January 20, the prices of LME 3 - month copper and aluminum decreased by 2.3% and 1.5% respectively compared to January 13. The domestic commodity index has turned upward month - on - month [5][61] - Industrial product prices have shown mixed month - on - month changes. Since January, the prices of glass, coking coal, coke, and steam coal have increased month - on - month, while other industrial product prices have decreased month - on - month. Most of the year - on - year declines in industrial product prices have converged [64]