Report Industry Investment Rating - All three industries (cotton, sugar, and pulp) are rated as neutral [3][7][10] Core Viewpoints - For cotton, the global supply - demand pattern has shifted from loose to tight, but the market doubts the tight pattern. In China, short - term supply shortage supports cotton prices, but weak downstream demand limits the upside. In the medium - term, new cotton listing will suppress prices [2] - For sugar, the Brazilian sugar market has complex changes in exports. The domestic sugar market faces pressure from imported sugar, but potential delays in the new sugar - making season may lead to a price increase in the fourth quarter [4][6][7] - For pulp, the supply pressure remains in the second half of 2025, and the demand is weak both at home and abroad. The pulp price is expected to continue to oscillate at a low level [9][10] Summary by Product Cotton Market News and Key Data - Futures: Cotton 2601 contract closed at 14,100 yuan/ton yesterday, down 25 yuan/ton (-0.18%) from the previous day. Spot: 3128B cotton in Xinjiang was 15,080 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan/ton; the national average was 15,243 yuan/ton, up 9 yuan/ton. India will exempt cotton import tariffs from August 19 - September 30 [1] Market Analysis - International: USDA cut global cotton production and ending stocks, but the market doubts the tight pattern, and ICE cotton is in a shock range. Domestic: Zhengzhou cotton rose with the external market. Short - term supply shortage supports prices, but weak downstream demand limits the upside. Medium - term, new cotton listing will bring new pressure [2] Strategy - Neutral. Low inventory and upcoming textile peak season support prices, but policy regulation and long - term industrial factors limit the upside [3] Sugar Market News and Key Data - Futures: Sugar 2601 contract closed at 5,661 yuan/ton yesterday, down 11 yuan/ton (-0.19%) from the previous day. Spot: Sugar in Nanning, Guangxi was 5,980 yuan/ton; in Kunming, Yunnan was 5,855 yuan/ton. In July 2025, Brazilian sugar exports decreased, while ethanol exports increased [4] Market Analysis - International: Brazilian sugar production and crushing data are mixed, and some institutions are lowering Brazilian sugar production estimates. Domestic: The sales progress of domestic sugar has slowed down, and the pressure of imported sugar is increasing [6] Strategy - Neutral. Pressured by processed sugar supply, Zhengzhou sugar will oscillate. In the medium - term, low inventory and potential delays in the new sugar - making season may lead to a price increase in the fourth quarter [7] Pulp Market News and Key Data - Futures: Pulp 2511 contract closed at 5,178 yuan/ton yesterday, down 74 yuan/ton (-1.41%) from the previous day. Spot: Chilean silver star coniferous pulp in Shandong was 5,850 yuan/ton; Russian needle pulp was 5,200 yuan/ton. The imported wood pulp spot market was mostly stable, with some prices following the decline of the futures [8] Market Analysis - Supply: In the first half of 2025, wood pulp imports increased, and domestic production capacity will be put into operation in the second half. Port inventory is high, and supply pressure remains. Demand: Weak consumption in Europe and the US, and weak domestic demand due to the off - season. Terminal demand improvement in the second half of the year is limited [9] Strategy - Neutral. The pulp market fundamentals have not improved significantly, and the price is expected to continue to oscillate at a low level [10]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Pure benzene port inventory continues to decline slightly, and its basis has stabilized and strengthened recently. From August to September, there are maintenance plans for aromatics in South Korea, and the import pressure has not increased further. The overall downstream operating rate remains high, and the demand is at a seasonal high, which drives the de - stocking of pure benzene, but the de - stocking range is expected to be limited. - For styrene, the port inventory did not continue to decline at the beginning of the week, and the port pickup volume did not continue to increase. Among the downstream products, the operating rates of EPS and PS have rebounded, and their inventory pressures have been relieved, while ABS still maintains a state of high inventory and low operating rate [3]. 3. Summary According to the Directory I. Pure Benzene and EB's Basis Structure, Inter - Period Spread - Pure benzene's main basis is - 87 yuan/ton (+4), and the spot - M2 spread is 5 yuan/ton (+0). Styrene's main basis is 54 yuan/ton (+14) [1]. II. Pure Benzene and Styrene Production Profits, Domestic and Foreign Spreads - Pure benzene's CFR China processing fee is 176 dollars/ton (+0), and FOB South Korea processing fee is 161 dollars/ton (+0). The profit of styrene's non - integrated production is - 327 yuan/ton (+10), and it is expected to gradually compress [1]. III. Pure Benzene and Styrene Inventory, Operating Rate - Pure benzene port inventory is 14.40 tons (- 0.20), and styrene's East China port inventory is 161,500 tons (+12,700), in the inventory rebuilding stage. The operating rate of pure benzene downstream such as caprolactam is 93.72% (+5.31), and styrene's operating rate is 78.2% (+0.5) [1]. IV. Styrene Downstream Operating Rate and Production Profit - Among styrene's downstream products, EPS production profit is 93 yuan/ton (- 160), PS production profit is - 107 yuan/ton (- 60), and ABS production profit is - 66 yuan/ton (+2). EPS operating rate is 58.08% (+14.41), PS operating rate is 56.70% (+1.70), and ABS operating rate is 71.10% (+0) [2]. V. Pure Benzene Downstream Operating Rate and Production Profit - For pure benzene's downstream products, caprolactam production profit is - 1795 yuan/ton (+0), phenol - acetone production profit is - 751 yuan/ton (- 62), aniline production profit is - 161 yuan/ton (- 262), and adipic acid production profit is - 1386 yuan/ton (+0) [1]. 4. Strategy - **Single - side**: Hold a wait - and - see attitude towards pure benzene and styrene. - **Basis and Inter - period**: Carry out positive arbitrage, buy near - month BZ paper goods and sell BZ2603 futures. - **Cross - variety**: Expand the BZN processing fee when it is low in the peak season. Hold a wait - and - see attitude towards the EB - BZ spread [4].

化工日报 | 2025-08-20 市场氛围转弱，下游成交谨慎 市场要闻与数据 期货方面，昨日收盘RU主力合约15875元/吨，较前一日变动+55元/吨；NR主力合约12690元/吨，较前一日变动+40 元/吨；BR主力合约11840元/吨，较前一日变动元/吨。 现货方面，云南产全乳胶上海市场价格14900元/吨，较前一日变动+50元/吨。青岛保税区泰混14650元/吨，较前一 日变动+50元/吨。青岛保税区泰国20号标胶1810美元/吨，较前一日变动+5美元/吨。青岛保税区印尼20号标胶1765 美元/吨，较前一日变动+10美元/吨。中石油齐鲁石化BR9000出厂价格11900元/吨，较前一日变动+0元/吨。浙江传 化BR9000市场价11750元/吨，较前一日变动+50元/吨。 据第一商用车网初步统计，2025年7月份重卡市场销售8.3万辆左右，包含出口与新能源车型。与此同时，这一数据 较去年同期5.83万辆上涨约42%，显示出显著的增长动能。 QinRex最新数据显示，2025年上半年美国进口轮胎共计14343万条，同比增加6.8%。其中，乘用车胎进口同比增3% 至8489万条；卡客车胎进口同比增10% ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided Core Viewpoints - The basis of methanol at ports is weak, and ports are in a continuous inventory accumulation cycle. The overall overseas methanol operation rate is still high, with only a small amount of maintenance in Iran and the resumption of production at Malaysia's Petronas. The pressure of methanol arrivals in China is increasing, while the maintenance of the Xingxing MTO unit has dragged down demand. The centralized maintenance period of coal - based methanol is gradually over, and the operation rate will gradually increase in late August, which may drive the inventory in inland areas to bottom out and rebound. The downstream formaldehyde is in a seasonal off - season, waiting for a further bottom - up recovery [3] Summary by Directory I. Methanol Basis & Inter - period Structure - The report presents multiple figures related to methanol basis and inter - period structure, including the basis between methanol in Taicang and the main contract, the basis between spot prices in different regions and the main futures contract, and the price difference between different methanol futures contracts [6][7][11] II. Methanol Production Profit, MTO Profit, Import Profit - Figures show the production profit of coal - based methanol in Inner Mongolia, the MTO profit in East China, the import price difference between Taicang methanol and CFR China, and the price differences between CFR Southeast Asia, FOB US Gulf, FOB Rotterdam and CFR China [6][26][30] III. Methanol Operation and Inventory - The report includes data on the total port inventory of methanol, the MTO/P operation rate (including integrated units), the sample inventory of inland factories, and the operation rate of methanol in China (including integrated units) [6][33][34] IV. Regional Price Differences - Figures display various regional price differences, such as the price difference between northern Shandong and the northwest, between East China and Inner Mongolia, between Taicang and southern Shandong, etc. [6][38][44] V. Traditional Downstream Profits - The report shows the production gross profit of formaldehyde in Shandong, acetic acid in Jiangsu, MTBE isomerization etherification in Shandong, and dimethyl ether in Henan [6][48][57] Market News and Important Data Inland - The price of Q5500 thermal coal in Ordos is 470 yuan/ton (unchanged), and the production profit of coal - based methanol in Inner Mongolia is 655 yuan/ton (-10 yuan). The inland methanol prices are as follows: Inner Mongolia's northern line is 2070 yuan/ton (-10 yuan), with a basis of 279 yuan/ton (-5 yuan); Inner Mongolia's southern line is 2080 yuan/ton (unchanged); Linyi in Shandong is 2334 yuan/ton (-11 yuan), with a basis of 143 yuan/ton (-6 yuan); Henan is 2210 yuan/ton (unchanged), with a basis of 19 yuan/ton (+5 yuan); Hebei is 2300 yuan/ton (unchanged), with a basis of 169 yuan/ton (+5 yuan). The inventory of inland factories is 295,573 tons (+1,885 tons), and the inventory of factories in the northwest is 182,500 tons (-3,000 tons). The pending orders of inland factories are 219,365 tons (-21,435 tons), and those of factories in the northwest are 107,000 tons (-15,800 tons) [1] Ports - The price of methanol in Taicang is 2280 yuan/ton (-22 yuan), with a basis of -111 yuan/ton (-17 yuan); CFR China is 261 US dollars/ton (-1 US dollar), and the import price difference in East China is 4 yuan/ton (-13 yuan). The price of methanol in Changzhou is 2415 yuan/ton; in Guangdong, it is 2275 yuan/ton (-25 yuan), with a basis of -116 yuan/ton (-20 yuan). The total port inventory is 1,021,800 tons (+96,320 tons), including 548,000 tons in Jiangsu ports (+50,000 tons), 139,000 tons in Zhejiang ports (-5,000 tons), and 213,000 tons in Guangdong ports (+43,000 tons). The downstream MTO operation rate is 83.12% (-0.77%) [2] Regional Price Differences - The price difference between northern Shandong and the northwest is -55 yuan/ton (-10 yuan); the price difference between Taicang and Inner Mongolia is -340 yuan/ton (-12 yuan); the price difference between Taicang and southern Shandong is -304 yuan/ton (-11 yuan); the price difference between southern Shandong and Taicang is -46 yuan/ton (+11 yuan); the price difference between Guangdong and East China is -185 yuan/ton (-3 yuan); the price difference between East China and Sichuan - Chongqing is -115 yuan/ton (+18 yuan) [2] Strategy - For single - side trading, it is advisable to cautiously short - sell for hedging at high prices. For inter - period and cross - variety trading, it is recommended to wait and see [4]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information provided about the report industry investment rating in the given content. Group 2: Report's Core View - The demand in the asphalt market remains weak, and market sentiment is under pressure. The current supply - demand pattern is generally weak, with limited improvement in rigid demand due to weather and capital factors, and speculative demand is also weak. The social inventory depletion is weaker than the seasonal level. If oil prices continue to fall, the asphalt market price will further decline, and in the short term, the impact of the Russia - Ukraine peace talks on the oil market sentiment needs attention [1]. - The strategy for asphalt trading is as follows: the outlook for single - side trading is oscillatory, while there are no strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [2]. Group 3: Market Analysis Summary - On August 19th, the closing price of the main asphalt futures contract BU2510 in the afternoon session was 3453 yuan/ton, a decrease of 21 yuan/ton or 0.6% compared to the previous day's settlement price. The open interest was 219,752 lots, a decrease of 5,528 lots compared to the previous day, and the trading volume was 141,976 lots, a decrease of 33,511 lots compared to the previous day [1]. - The spot settlement prices of heavy - traffic asphalt according to Zhuochuang Information are: 3,856 - 4,086 yuan/ton in the Northeast, 3,450 - 3,870 yuan/ton in Shandong, 3,490 - 3,530 yuan/ton in South China, and 3,580 - 3,750 yuan/ton in East China. The price in North China increased slightly yesterday, while the spot prices in Shandong and East China decreased, and the prices in other regions remained stable for the time being [1]. Group 4: Strategy Summary - Single - side trading: The outlook is oscillatory [2]. - Inter - period trading: No strategy [2]. - Inter - variety trading: No strategy [2]. - Spot - futures trading: No strategy [2]. - Options trading: No strategy [2]. Group 5: Chart Information Summary - There are multiple charts showing various data related to asphalt, including spot prices in different regions (Shandong, East China, South China, North China, Southwest, Northwest), futures index and contract closing prices, trading volume and open interest of futures, domestic weekly asphalt production, production in different regions (Shandong, East China, South China, North China), domestic asphalt consumption in different fields (road, waterproofing, coking, ship fuel), and asphalt inventory in refineries and social inventories [3] [10] [17] [20] [22] [27] [29] [35] [36] [37] [38].

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-08-20 多空博弈激烈，沪镍不锈钢震荡走弱 镍品种 2025-08-19日沪镍主力合约2509开于120490元/吨，收于120330元/吨，较前一交易日收盘变化-0.37%，当日成交量 为63677手，持仓量为55967手。 期货方面：沪镍主力即将更换至2510合约，今日主力合约夜盘开盘后快速冲高至 121,450 元 / 吨，但未能站稳高 位，随后回落至 120,140 元 / 吨，最终收于 120,340 元 / 吨，较前日结算价下跌 350 元，跌幅 0.29%。成交量 78,139 手，持仓量 62,507 手，显示夜盘交易活跃度较高，但持仓量未显著增加，多空资金博弈后选择离场。日盘延续弱 势，开盘价 120,490 元，最高价 120,950 元，最低价 120,050 元，最终收于 120,330 元，下跌 450 元，跌幅 0.37%。 成交量 63,677 手，持仓量减少至 55,967 手，较夜盘减少 6,540 手，资金离场迹象明显。8 月 18 日 LME 镍价收 于 15,095 美元 / 吨，下跌 0.66%，8 月 19 日进一步跌至 15, ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Reports Oils and Fats - Palm oil futures are expected to experience a downward oscillatory adjustment, seeking support at 4,500 ringgit. Domestic palm oil futures may continue to strengthen towards the 9,800 - 10,000 yuan range [1]. - CBOT soybean oil is showing a回调 trend due to the end of the fuel demand peak season in the US and geopolitical factors. However, domestic soybean oil market basis quotes are supported by potential downstream demand [1]. Sugar - Raw sugar is likely to face resistance at 17 cents per pound. Zhengzhou sugar is expected to remain oscillatory and slightly weak, with attention on the pressure around 5,700 [3]. Cotton - Short - term domestic cotton prices may oscillate within a range, while facing pressure after the new cotton is listed due to expected stable - to - increasing production [4]. Pigs - Spot pig prices have stabilized, but future prices are still not optimistic due to expected increased supply. For far - month contracts, short - selling is not recommended, but the impact of hedging funds should be noted [5]. Corn - The corn market is expected to remain oscillatory and weak due to increased supply expectations. In the medium term, the futures price may move towards the new - season cost [7]. Eggs - Egg prices are expected to maintain a bearish trend due to sufficient supply and average downstream digestion speed [12]. Meal - The bottom range of meal has shifted upwards, with an overall upward trend. It is advisable to choose the right time to go long [15]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Oils and Fats - **Futures and Spot Prices**: On August 19, soybean oil spot price in Jiangsu was 8,830 yuan, unchanged from the previous day; palm oil spot price in Guangdong was 9,710 yuan, up 140 yuan from August 18; rapeseed oil spot price in Jiangsu was 10,030 yuan, unchanged [1]. - **Spreads and Inventory**: The soybean - palm oil spread and the rapeseed - soybean oil spread showed different changes. The inventory of soybean oil and palm oil in China had different trends [1]. Sugar - **Futures and Spot Prices**: On August 19, domestic sugar futures prices declined slightly, while spot prices in Nanning and Kunming remained unchanged. The import cost of Brazilian sugar decreased [3]. - **Industry Data**: National sugar production and sales increased year - on - year, and industrial inventory decreased [3]. Cotton - **Futures and Spot Prices**: On August 19, domestic cotton futures prices declined slightly, and spot prices showed minor changes. The basis between spot and futures had different fluctuations [4]. - **Industry Data**: Commercial and industrial inventories decreased, and the import volume increased. The inventory days of yarn and grey cloth decreased [4]. Pigs - **Futures and Spot Prices**: On August 19, futures prices of live pigs increased slightly, and spot prices in different regions showed different changes [5]. - **Industry Data**: The slaughter volume decreased slightly, and the self - breeding and purchased - piglet breeding profits decreased [5]. Corn - **Futures and Spot Prices**: On August 19, corn futures prices declined slightly, and spot prices remained stable. The basis increased [7]. - **Industry Data**: Corn starch futures prices declined, and the inventory of corn decreased [7]. Eggs - **Futures and Spot Prices**: On August 19, egg futures prices declined, and the egg - to - feed ratio decreased. The basis increased [11]. - **Industry Data**: The price of egg - laying chicken seedlings and the price of culled chickens decreased [11]. Meal - **Futures and Spot Prices**: On August 19, soybean meal and rapeseed meal futures prices increased slightly, and spot prices remained unchanged. The basis of some contracts decreased [15]. - **Industry Data**: The inventory of domestic soybeans and soybean meal continued to rise [15].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The USDA has adjusted the planting area and yield of new - crop soybeans in the United States, leading to a decrease in the estimated production of new - crop soybeans and a significant tightening of the ending stocks. The prices of soybean meal futures are supported by the cost of imports. For palm oil, the increase in production and exports in Malaysia, along with concerns about Indonesia's production and policy, will cause short - term oscillations in the oil market [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - **Domestic Futures**: The previous day's closing prices of domestic futures for soybean oil, palm oil, and other varieties are provided, along with their price changes, price differences, and price - to - price difference ratios. For example, the previous day's closing price of soybean oil futures was 8526, with a price increase of 10 and a price increase rate of 0.12%. The current value of the Y9 - 1 spread was 32, compared to a previous value of 28 [1] - **International Futures**: The previous day's closing prices, price changes, and price increase rates of international futures such as BMD palm oil, CBOT soybeans, and others are presented. For instance, the previous day's closing price of BMD palm oil was 4473, with a price increase of 135 and a price increase rate of 3.11% [1] Spot Market - **Domestic Spot**: The current spot prices, price increase rates, spot basis, and spot price differences of domestic products like soybean oil, palm oil, and others are given. For example, the current spot price of Tianjin first - grade soybean oil is 8730, with a price increase rate of 0.00%, and the spot basis is 204 [1] - **Import and Profit**: The current and previous values of import profit for varieties such as Malaysian palm oil, U.S. Gulf soybeans, and others are provided. For example, the current import profit of Malaysian palm oil is - 195, compared to a previous value of - 204 [1] - **Warehouse Receipts**: The current and previous values of warehouse receipts for soybean oil, palm oil, and other varieties are presented. For example, the current value of soybean oil warehouse receipts is 15,310, the same as the previous value [1] Industry Information - **Crop Inspection**: ProFarmer's crop inspection estimates that the corn yield per acre in Ohio in 2025 will be 185.69 bushels, and the average number of soybean pods in Ohio will be 1287.28, showing an increase compared to 2024 [2] - **Protein Meal**: The USDA has adjusted the planting area and yield of new - crop soybeans in the United States, resulting in a decrease in the estimated production of new - crop soybeans from 43.35 billion bushels to 42.92 billion bushels. The export estimate of U.S. soybeans has been further reduced to 17.05 billion bushels, and the ending stocks of U.S. soybean futures in the 25/26 season have decreased to 2.9 billion bushels [2] - **Oils**: According to high - frequency data, the estimated production of Malaysian palm oil from August 1 - 15, 2025, increased by 0.88% compared to the same period last month, and the export volume increased by 34.5%. Indonesia's policies and actions have also affected the palm oil market [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the documents Core Views - The short - term trend of soybean meal and rapeseed meal is bullish, but caution is needed when chasing long positions. Palm oil is generally bullish, and the strategy is to go long on dips. Cotton, jujube, and live pigs are cautiously bullish, with specific strategies for each variety [1]. Summary by Variety Soybean Meal - Climate - neutral expectations indicate smooth soybean planting weather in the US. In China, soybeans and soybean meal are in the inventory - building stage, with the inventory - building speed in August expected to slow compared to July. The US Department of Agriculture's August supply - demand report unexpectedly lowered the US soybean planting area but increased the yield per unit, resulting in a decrease in the final US soybean production and ending inventory. The Sino - US trade tariff is a key cost support for soybean meal. Recently, event speculation has cooled down. The short - term trend is bullishly volatile, but caution is needed when chasing long positions [1][4]. - As of August 15, 2025, the national port soybean inventory was 8.926 million tons, a decrease of 12,000 tons from last week; the soybean inventory of 125 oil mills was 6.804 million tons, a decrease of 301,600 tons from last week, a drop of 4.24%. The soybean meal inventory was 1.0147 million tons, an increase of 11,200 tons from last week, an increase of 1.12%. The domestic feed enterprises' soybean meal inventory days were 8.35 days, a decrease of 0.02 days from August 8, a drop of 0.20%. The downstream has started to purchase spot goods to replenish positions. The future supply uncertainty makes feed mills' purchases cautious, but traders' acceptance is okay [3]. Rapeseed Meal - Globally, rapeseed production has recovered year - on - year, but there is a risk of a decrease in the yield per unit of Canadian rapeseed in the new year. In China, the rapeseed inventory of oil mills has decreased month - on - month, while the rapeseed meal inventory has increased month - on - month. The commercial inventory has decreased, but it is still at a relatively high level year - on - year. From August to October, rapeseed imports are significantly lower year - on - year, combined with a 100% import tariff on Canadian rapeseed meal, anti - dumping deposits on rapeseed, and the strength of old - crop Canadian rapeseed, which strongly supports the rapeseed meal price. However, the high inventory of granular meal at ports suppresses the market. The short - term trend is bullish, but caution is needed when chasing long positions [1][6]. - As of August 15, the rapeseed inventory of major coastal oil mills was 115,000 tons, a decrease of 23,800 tons from last week; the rapeseed meal inventory was 25,500 tons, a decrease of 6,500 tons from last week; the unexecuted contracts were 55,000 tons, a decrease of 14,000 tons from last week [5]. Palm Oil - The biodiesel policies of Indonesia and Malaysia are beneficial to the consumption expectation of the palm oil market, and there is purchasing demand from China and India. In July, Malaysia's palm oil inventory increased but was lower than expected. The export data in the first 15 days of this month was good, boosting the market to a new high. The overall trend is to go long on dips, but attention should be paid to the impact of the Russia - Ukraine negotiation on the crude oil price [1][7]. Cotton - Internationally, the drought in the US cotton - growing area has expanded, and the non - drought rate has dropped significantly. The excellent - good rate of US cotton has increased. Brazil's cotton production is expected to be 3.935 million tons this year. Domestically, Xinjiang's new cotton is mostly in the boll - splitting stage, and the production is expected to exceed 7.4 million tons. The import volume in July was 50,000 tons. The commercial inventory has decreased. The demand is improving, and the "Golden September and Silver October" stocking market is starting. The short - term focus is on the supply before the new cotton is listed. It is recommended to be cautiously bullish, and those with long positions at low levels should consider partial profit - taking [1][10][11]. Jujube - New - season jujube production is expected to be in the range of 500,000 - 580,000 tons in the 2025/26 season in southern Xinjiang, with a definite reduction in production but a smaller reduction than in 2023/24. The inventory removal speed has accelerated recently. Before November, the speculation around the purchase price is expected to be long, which is beneficial to the bullish trend. The strategy is to go long on dips [1][14]. Live Pigs - In the short term, the planned slaughter volume of Steel Union sample enterprises in August has increased. There is supply pressure from second - fattening. In the medium term, the number of new - born piglets from January to July has increased, indicating potential growth in slaughter volume in the second half of the year. In the long term, the inventory of breeding sows remains high, but the growth rate is expected to slow down. The demand is gradually recovering. The short - term pressure on the spot market remains, but the far - month contracts may rise due to the capacity reduction of leading enterprises. It is not recommended to short - sell blindly in the short term. Consider going long on far - month contracts on dips or conducting reverse arbitrage operations [1][16][17].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the given content. 2. Report's Core Views - The steel market may experience weak and volatile prices in the short - term due to decreased demand in the off - season and expected production restrictions in Tangshan [1]. - The methanol 01 contract is expected to be weak and volatile in the short - term, with a suggested strategy of short - selling on rebounds [2]. - The manganese silicon price is expected to be volatile in the short - term, and its upside potential is limited in the long - term [4]. - The coking coal futures are expected to be volatile in the short - term as the supply recovery is slow and demand has slowed down [5]. - The short - term price of live pigs futures is stable, and farmers are advised to sell and hedge according to the slaughter rhythm [6]. - The palm oil price is expected to be volatile at a high level in the short - term [7]. - The domestic soybean price is expected to be weakly stable in the short - term [7]. - The L2601 contract of plastics is expected to be weak and volatile in the short - term, with a suggested strategy of short - selling on rebounds [8]. - The soda ash 01 contract is expected to be volatile in the short - term, and it is recommended to wait and see or short - sell on rebounds [9]. - The silver is still expected to be bullish with increased volatility recently [9]. - The gold is expected to have a short - term rebound but be bearish in the medium - term [10]. - The medium - and long - term treasury bonds are expected to rebound in the short - term and be bearish in the medium - term [10]. - The crude oil is expected to be weak and volatile in the short - term [12]. - The polyester staple fiber is expected to be weak and volatile, and it is advisable to wait and see [12]. - The rubber is expected to be in a range - bound and weak in the short - term [13]. 3. Summary by Commodity Steel - On August 19, the domestic steel market price fell weakly. The average price of rebar in major cities was 3347 yuan/ton, down 22 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The demand for steel in the off - season continued to decline, and the supply - demand pressure increased. However, considering the planned production restrictions of Tangshan steel mills at the end of August and early September, the market bearish sentiment was not strong [1]. Methanol - The weekly signing volume of methanol sample production enterprises in the northwest decreased by 0.75 tons to 2.83 tons. The market price in Jiangsu Taicang was 2280 yuan/ton, down 22 yuan/ton. The port inventory increased by 9.63 tons to 102.18 tons, and the production enterprise inventory increased by 0.19 tons to 29.56 tons. The methanol capacity utilization rate rose by 0.97% to 82.4%, while the downstream total capacity utilization rate decreased by 0.34% to 72.36% [2]. Manganese Silicon - The national开工率 (capacity utilization rate) of 187 independent silicon - manganese enterprises was 45.75%, up 2.32% from the previous week, and the daily average output increased by 1605 tons to 29580 tons. The cost support of manganese silicon was strong, but the supply - demand relationship tended to be loose due to the resumption of production by manufacturers [4]. Coking Coal - The capacity utilization rate of 230 independent coking enterprises was 74.13%, up 0.38%. The daily average coke production increased by 0.27 to 52.29, the coke inventory decreased by 5.32 to 39.31, the total coking coal inventory decreased by 3.34 to 829.41, and the available days of coking coal decreased by 0.11 days to 11.9 days [5]. Live Pigs - On August 19, the "Agricultural Product Wholesale Price 200 Index" rose 0.09 points to 115.33, and the "Vegetable Basket" product wholesale price index rose 0.11 points to 115.70. The average wholesale price of pork in the national agricultural product market was 20.21 yuan/kg, unchanged from the previous day, and the price of eggs rose 1.8% to 7.73 yuan/kg [6]. Palm Oil - The Malaysian Palm Oil Council expects the palm oil price to remain above 4300 ringgit. The domestic spot price decreased, and the trading volume was slightly boosted. The international soybean - palm oil price spread was inverted again, affecting future demand, but there was still support from holiday stocking in India and China [7]. Soybean - Brazil's soybean export volume in August is expected to reach 890 tons, up from the previous week's forecast of 880 tons. The domestic soybean market shows a situation of weak supply and demand. The new soybeans have not been listed in large quantities, but the state - reserve auctions have supplemented the market supply. The demand is weak due to high - temperature weather and the impact of other food prices [7]. Plastics - The mainstream price of LLDPE in North China was 7327 yuan/ton, down 9 yuan/ton. The weekly production was 28.96 tons, down 3.6%. The production enterprise inventory decreased by 16% to 15.17 tons. The oil - based daily production profit was - 244 yuan/ton. The average opening rate of downstream polyethylene products increased by 0.3% [8]. Soda Ash - The national mainstream price of heavy - quality soda ash was 1326 yuan/ton, showing weak and volatile trends recently. The weekly production was 76.13 tons, up 2.24%. The total inventory of soda ash manufacturers increased by 1.54% to 189.38 tons. The opening rate of float glass was 75.34%, up 0.15% [9]. Silver - The S&P confirmed the US "AA +/A - 1+" sovereign credit rating with a stable outlook. The market believes that the US economy is still resilient, and the US dollar index has rebounded, putting pressure on precious metals. However, the silver is still expected to be bullish with increased volatility [9]. Gold - The geopolitical situation in the Russia - Ukraine conflict shows signs of easing, and the safe - haven sentiment has cooled. Coupled with the Fed's interest - rate cut and the rise of the US dollar index, the gold is expected to have a short - term rebound but be bearish in the medium - term [10]. Medium - and Long - term Treasury Bonds - The central bank increased the re - loan quota for supporting agriculture and small businesses by 100 billion yuan. The bond market may rebound in the short - term due to loose liquidity and the stock - bond seesaw effect, but it is bearish in the medium - term [10]. Crude Oil - As of the week ending August 15, 2025, the US commercial crude oil inventory decreased by 2.4 million barrels, the distillate inventory increased by 0.5 million barrels, and the gasoline inventory increased by 1 million barrels. The profit of China's diesel and gasoline exports was poor, and India's economic growth rate was lower than expected, putting pressure on the oil market. The short - term crude oil has no upward driving force and is expected to be weak and volatile [11][12]. Short - fiber - The average capacity utilization rate of polyester staple fiber was 86.45%, down 0.04% from the previous period. The production was 16.35 tons, down 0.01 tons or 0.06%. The average opening rate of the pure - polyester yarn industry was 70.96%, unchanged from the previous period. The average cash flow of the polyester staple fiber industry was - 223.77 yuan/ton, up 0.09% [12]. Rubber - The price of raw rubber glue in Thailand was 54.7 baht/kg, and the price of cup rubber was 49.8 baht/kg. In July 2025, China's rubber tire outer - tire production was 94.364 million, down 7.3% year - on - year. From January to July, the production increased by 0.7% to 686.115 million compared with the same period last year. The supply was stable, the social inventory decreased slightly, and the demand was weak [13].