Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Views - For industrial silicon, the spot price remains stable, and the supply - demand pattern may improve during the dry season but still shows a cumulative inventory pattern. The industrial silicon futures are mainly affected by overall commodity sentiment and policy news. If there are policies to promote, the futures may have room to rise. For polysilicon, the supply and demand both weaken, with high inventory pressure and general consumption performance. The futures are affected by anti - involution policies and weak reality, and are expected to fluctuate mainly [3][6] Market Analysis Industrial Silicon - On November 26, 2025, the industrial silicon futures price fluctuated. The main contract 2601 opened at 8,960 yuan/ton and closed at 9,020 yuan/ton, a change of 0.28% from the previous settlement. The position of the 2511 main contract was 260,529 lots, and the number of warehouse receipts was 40,425 lots, a decrease of 289 lots from the previous day. The spot price of industrial silicon remained stable, with prices in various regions unchanged [1] - The Lanzhou Dongjin Silicon Industry Co., Ltd. organic silicon integration project (change) has its total land area changed to 1,667.45 mu. The first - phase product is changed to 400,000 tons/year of industrial silicon blocks, and the second - phase will build a production line for 400,000 tons/year of organic silicon monomers and supporting downstream products [2] - The organic silicon DMC market is stable, with a current mainstream quotation of 13,100 - 13,200 yuan/ton. Manufacturers have a strong willingness to hold prices, and downstream enterprises actively follow up, with increased market confidence. It is expected to run steadily and strongly in the short term [2] Polysilicon - On November 26, 2025, the polysilicon futures main contract 2601 showed a strong - side fluctuation, opening at 54,730 yuan/ton and closing at 55,895 yuan/ton, a 2.93% change from the previous trading day. The position of the main contract reached 143,043 lots, and the trading volume was 330,316 lots [4] - The polysilicon spot price weakened slightly. The polysilicon manufacturer inventory and silicon wafer inventory increased, with polysilicon inventory at 271,000 tons (a 1.50% change) and silicon wafer inventory at 18.72 GW (a 1.63% change). The weekly polysilicon production was 27,100 tons (a 1.11% change), and the silicon wafer production was 12.78 GW (a - 2.59% change) [4][5] - The prices of silicon wafers, battery cells, and components were provided, with some prices remaining stable and some having slight changes [5] Strategy Industrial Silicon - The spot price is stable. The industrial silicon futures are mainly affected by overall commodity sentiment and policy news. Short - term interval operation is recommended, and contracts during the dry season can be bought at low prices [3] Polysilicon - The polysilicon futures are affected by anti - involution policies and weak reality. Short - term interval operation is recommended, and the main contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 50,000 - 57,000 yuan/ton [6]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Aluminium: Cautiously bullish [9] - Alumina: Neutral [9] - Aluminium alloy: Cautiously bullish [9] - Arbitrage: Neutral [9] Core Viewpoints - The report is optimistic about future aluminium consumption, believing that the long - term interest - rate cut cycle remains unchanged. The price decline caused by the current macro - sentiment provides a good long - term buying and hedging opportunity. Attention should be paid to whether the expected decline in social inventory before the Spring Festival can be realized. Alumina is in an oversupply situation, but its current valuation is low, and risks from the uncertainty of Guinea bauxite need to be guarded against [6][8]. Summary by Related Catalogs Aluminium Market Data - **Spot Aluminium**: On November 26, 2025, the price of East China A00 aluminium was 21,400 yuan/ton, a decrease of 40 yuan/ton from the previous trading day; the spot premium and discount of East China aluminium was - 20 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. Similar price and premium/discount changes were also seen in Central China and Foshan [1]. - **Futures Aluminium**: On November 26, 2025, the opening price of the main Shanghai aluminium contract was 21,465 yuan/ton, the closing price was 21,455 yuan/ton, an increase of 5 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 172,888 lots, and the open interest was 259,056 lots [2]. - **Aluminium Inventory**: As of November 26, 2025, the domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminium ingots was 613,000 tons, a decrease of 8,000 tons from the previous period; the warehouse receipt inventory was 66,985 tons, a decrease of 200 tons from the previous trading day; the LME aluminium inventory was 541,725 tons, a decrease of 2,000 tons from the previous trading day [2]. Alumina Market Data - **Spot Alumina**: On November 26, 2025, the SMM alumina prices in Shanxi, Shandong, Henan, Guangxi, and Guizhou were 2,835 yuan/ton, 2,770 yuan/ton, 2,860 yuan/ton, 2,910 yuan/ton, and 2,935 yuan/ton respectively, and the FOB price of Australian alumina was 320 US dollars/ton [2]. - **Futures Alumina**: On November 26, 2025, the opening price of the main alumina contract was 2,722 yuan/ton, the closing price was 2,720 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, with a change rate of - 0.37%. The trading volume was 190,375 lots, and the open interest was 377,215 lots [2]. Aluminium Alloy Market Data - **Aluminium Alloy Price**: On November 26, 2025, the procurement price of Baotai civil primary aluminium was 16,600 yuan/ton, and the procurement price of mechanical primary aluminium was 16,900 yuan/ton, with no change from the previous day. The Baotai quotation of ADC12 was 20,700 yuan/ton, also with no change from the previous day [3]. - **Aluminium Alloy Inventory**: The social inventory of aluminium alloy was 75,200 tons, and the in - factory inventory was 57,900 tons [4]. - **Aluminium Alloy Cost and Profit**: The theoretical total cost was 21,111 yuan/ton, and the theoretical profit was - 211 yuan/ton [5]. Market Analysis - **Electrolytic Aluminium**: The 500,000 - ton electrolytic aluminium project of Indonesia's Lygend has been completed and put into production, but it is expected to reach full production in October 2026. The power supply in Indonesia may still affect production. The expectation of an interest - rate cut in the US in December has strengthened again, and the aluminium price has rebounded. The trading enthusiasm in the spot market has declined slightly, and the spot discount has widened again. The social inventory decreased on Monday, and the future inventory - reduction trend is worth looking forward to. The low inventory level has little negative impact on prices [6]. - **Alumina**: There are few transactions in the spot market, and electrolytic aluminium plants have sufficient raw material reserves. There are few bullish factors in the fundamentals. The bauxite price is firm, domestic mines face short - term environmental protection pressure, and the supply of imported mines is increasing, weakening the sentiment towards prices. The price has fallen below the marginal maximum cash cost, but cost support needs to be tested. The social inventory is increasing, and the supply - demand is in an oversupply pattern. However, the current alumina valuation is low, and risks from the uncertainty of Guinea bauxite need to be guarded against [7][8].

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-11-27 单边：短期观望为主，关注库存与消费拐点及矿端复产情况 主力合约换月，碳酸锂盘面宽幅震荡 市场分析 2025-11-26，碳酸锂主力合约2605开于97740元/吨，收于96340元/吨，当日收盘价较昨日结算价变化1.45%。当日成 交量为810231手，持仓量为478054手，前一交易日持仓量430223手，根据SMM现货报价，目前基差为-5540元/吨 （电碳均价-期货）。当日碳酸锂仓单27050手，较上个交易日变化435手。 碳酸锂现货：根据SMM数据，电池级碳酸锂报价90000-95600元/吨，较前一交易日变化750元/吨，工业级碳酸锂报 价88800-92000元/吨，较前一交易日变化750元/吨。6%锂精矿价格1185美元/吨，较前一日变化65美元/吨。据SMM 数据，碳酸锂期货呈现区间震荡格局，主力合约已切换至2605，期货价格主要波动于9.53至9.99万元/吨之间。下游 材料厂采购意愿在短暂回暖后重归观望，采购仍以刚需为主，市场成交表现清淡。目前，上下游企业正在就明年 的长期协议进行谈判，现阶段主要围绕系数展开博弈。 10月，特斯拉在欧盟的新车 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The report provides trading suggestions and trend analyses for various energy - chemical futures on November 27, 2025, including PX, PTA, MEG, rubber, etc. For example, PX is advised not to be chased at high prices in the short term, and MEG's supply - demand pattern is improving [2][4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 PX, PTA, MEG - **PX**: Short - term not to chase high, with the price rising on November 26. The spread between PX and naphtha continues to expand. Suggest to exit long positions, go long MEG and short PX, and pay attention to the monthly spread reverse - arbitrage position [2][6][10]. - **PTA**: In a unilateral oscillating market, not to chase high. Valuation is at a high level, suggest to exit long positions and go long MEG and short PTA for hedging [2][10]. - **MEG**: Supply - demand balance sheet improves, suggest to cut short positions, take profit on short - position and reverse - arbitrage, and go long MEG and short PX for hedging [2][10]. 3.2 Rubber - The rubber market is oscillating strongly. The trend strength is 1. The futures price has increased, and the trading volume has also increased. In October 2025, China's truck and bus tire exports showed a short - term slowdown, and the export orders in November were weak [11][12][14]. 3.3 Synthetic Rubber - The synthetic rubber market is oscillating. The trend strength is 0. The inventory of domestic butadiene and butadiene rubber has increased. The short - term is in a weak decline, and the medium - term fundamentals of butadiene are under pressure [15][17][18]. 3.4 Asphalt - The asphalt market is following the weak trend of crude oil. The trend strength is - 1. The production capacity utilization rate has increased this week, and the shipment volume has also increased. The planned production volume in December has decreased [19][27][28]. 3.5 LLDPE - The LLDPE market has a situation where import offers may decrease and cracking load is disturbed. The trend strength is 0. The futures price is oscillating at a low level, and the downstream demand is supported by rigid demand. The supply side has some short - term contradictions, and medium - term attention should be paid to the supply - demand pressure [29][30]. 3.6 PP - In the short term, do not chase short positions in the PP market, but the medium - term trend is still under pressure. The trend strength is - 1. The supply side is currently under high pressure, and the demand peak has passed. The low profit of PP limits the downward space [31][32][33]. 3.7 Caustic Soda - The caustic soda market is still under pressure. The trend strength is - 1. The high - production and high - inventory pattern continues, and the demand side has limited support. The cost support is also limited, and long - term negative feedback may occur in the industry chain [35][37][38]. 3.8 Pulp - The pulp market is oscillating. The trend strength is 0. In November 2025, the pulp market showed a pattern of "weak softwood pulp and strong hardwood pulp". The price changes are affected by factors such as financial attributes, cost, and supply - demand structure [40][42][44]. 3.9 Glass - The glass market has stable original - sheet prices. The trend strength is 0. The spot price is slightly weak, the cost support is increasing, but the processing factory orders are average, and the trading volume is general [47][48]. 3.10 Methanol - The methanol market continues the short - term rebound pattern. The trend strength is 1. The spot price index has increased, and the port inventory has decreased significantly. The short - term rebound is due to the shutdown of Iranian methanol plants and capital games, while the medium - term fundamentals are still under pressure [50][52][53]. 3.11 Urea - The urea market is operating within a range, and the intraday trend mainly follows the spot sentiment. The trend strength is 0. The enterprise inventory has decreased, and the short - term is expected to be in an oscillating pattern. The domestic fundamentals are under pressure, but the downward driving force is weakened by policies [55][56][57]. 3.12 Styrene - The styrene market is oscillating in the short term. The trend strength is - 1. The pure benzene market is oscillating, and the styrene pattern is slightly stronger than pure benzene, but the rebound height is limited [58][59]. 3.13 Soda Ash - The soda ash spot market has little change. The trend strength is 0. The enterprise device is stable with minor fluctuations, the downstream demand is stable, and the market is expected to oscillate steadily in the short term [62][63]. 3.14 LPG and Propylene - **LPG**: The external market is strong, and the demand is acceptable. The trend strength is 0. The CP paper - cargo prices of propane and butane have increased [65][71]. - **Propylene**: The demand support is weakening, and the upward driving force is limited. The trend strength is 0 [22][66]. 3.15 PVC - The PVC market is oscillating at a low level. The trend strength is 0. The market is in a weak oscillation, and the supply - demand fundamentals have not improved. Although the absolute valuation is low, the high - production and high - inventory pattern is difficult to change in the short term [74][75]. 3.16 Fuel Oil and Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **Fuel Oil**: Oscillating at night, may be stronger than low - sulfur fuel oil in the short term. The trend strength is 0. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Continuing the adjustment trend, the spread between high - and low - sulfur in the external spot market has shrunk again. The trend strength is 0 [77]. 3.17 Container Shipping Index (European Line) - The container shipping index (European line) is operating weakly. The trend strength is not explicitly stated, but the market shows a weak trend with fluctuations in freight rates and trading volumes [79].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content found. 2. Core Views of the Report - For PTA, recent supply reduction exceeds expectations, polyester load remains strong, and the cancellation of India's BIS boosts export demand, reversing the inventory accumulation expectation and potentially leading to phased de - stocking. The spot basis is strong, but the absolute price still follows the cost - end. Attention should be paid to device changes [5]. - For MEG, the port arrivals this week are moderately low, and the port inventory may be slightly compressed early next week. However, there are still plans for large Saudi ships to arrive in early December, and the reduction in external supply is not obvious. The price has fallen to a two - year low, and some short - process oil - chemical plants face great production pressure. It is expected that the price will mainly fluctuate in a wide range in the short term [7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Previous Day Review No relevant content found. 3.2. Daily Tips - **PTA** - Fundamentals: The PTA futures rose slightly yesterday, the spot market negotiation atmosphere was okay, and the spot basis was strong. The mainstream spot basis today is 01 - 31 [5]. - Basis: The spot price is 4647, the 01 contract basis is - 37, and the futures price is at a premium [6]. - Inventory: The PTA factory inventory is 3.81 days, a decrease of 0.16 days compared to the previous period [6]. - Market: The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the closing price is above the 20 - day moving average [6]. - Main force position: Net long, long positions increasing [5]. - Expectation: Supply reduction, strong polyester load, and increased export demand may lead to de - stocking, but the price follows the cost - end [5]. - **MEG** - Fundamentals: On Wednesday, the ethylene glycol price fluctuated and adjusted, and the market negotiation was weak. The basis was weak, and the buying was scarce [7]. - Basis: The spot price is 3910, the 01 contract basis is 14, and the futures price is at a discount [8]. - Inventory: The total inventory in East China is 63.5 tons, an increase of 1.3 tons compared to the previous period [8]. - Market: The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day moving average [8]. - Main force position: Net short, short positions increasing [7]. - Expectation: Port inventory may be compressed slightly, but external supply reduction is not obvious. The price may fluctuate widely in the short term [7]. 3.3. Today's Focus No relevant content found. 3.4. Fundamental Data - **PTA Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: Presents PTA's supply, demand, inventory, and other data from January 2024 to December 2025, including production capacity, production, consumption, and inventory changes [12]. - **Ethylene Glycol Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: Shows ethylene glycol's supply, demand, inventory, and other data from January 2024 to December 2025, including production capacity utilization, production, import, and consumption [13]. - **Price and Spread Data**: Includes spot and futures prices of various products such as naphtha, PX, PTA, MEG, and polyester fibers, as well as basis, inter - month spreads, and profit data [14]. - **Inventory Analysis**: Displays inventory data of PTA, MEG, PET slices, and polyester fibers over the years [44][46][49]. - **Operating Rate Data**: Presents the operating rates of PTA, PX, MEG, and polyester industries over the years [56][58][60]. - **Profit Data**: Shows the profit data of PTA, MEG, and polyester fibers over the years [64][67][70].

商 品 研 究 陈鑫超 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020238 chenxinchao@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 LPG 基本面数据 2025 年 11 月 27 日 LPG：外盘强势，需求尚可 丙烯：需求支撑转弱，上涨驱动有限 研 究 所 期货研究 图 1：FEI 丙烷升贴水 图 2：美湾丙烷升贴水 资料来源：Argus，国泰君安期货研究 资料来源：Argus，国泰君安期货研究 图 3：中东丙烷升贴水 图 4：运费 资料来源：Argus，国泰君安期货研究 资料来源：Argus，国泰君安期货研究 | | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨幅 | 夜盘收盘价 | 夜盘涨幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | PG2512 | 4,383 | 1.93% | 4,366 | -0.39% | | 期货价格 | PG2601 | 4,288 | 1.37% | 4,281 | -0.16% | | | PL2601 | 5,853 | -0.63% | 5,880 | 0.46% | | | PL2602 | 5,837 | -0.12% | 5,857 | 0.34 ...

Report Summary Core View - On November 26, 2025, A-share major indexes showed mixed performance, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.15%, the Shenzhen Component Index up 1.02%, and the ChiNext Index up 2.14%. The trading volume of the two markets slightly decreased by 28.8 billion yuan to 1.7833 trillion yuan [1]. - Various futures varieties also had different trends. For example, the CSI 300 Index trended stronger, while the coke and coking coal weighted indexes trended weaker [1][2]. Summary by Variety Stock Index Futures - On November 26, the CSI 300 Index closed at 4,517.63, up 27.22 from the previous day [2]. Coke and Coking Coal - On November 26, the coke weighted index closed at 1,662.8, down 22.4; the coking coal weighted index closed at 1,124.9 yuan, down 10.4 [2][3]. - For coke, the fourth round of price increases has been implemented. The iron - water output decreased by 0.60 million tons to 2.3628 million tons, and the total coke inventory is higher than the same period. The average profit per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants is 19 yuan/ton [4]. - For coking coal, the price of Tangshan Mongolian 5 clean coal is 1,550, equivalent to 1,330 on the futures market. The National Development and Reform Commission issued a notice on ensuring the supply of thermal coal in 2026, weakening the futures market expectation. The mine capacity utilization rate has rebounded for two consecutive weeks, and the clean coal inventory of coal - washing plants has increased for three consecutive weeks [4]. Zhengzhou Sugar - Affected by the increase in new sugar supply and the decline in spot prices, the Zhengzhou Sugar 2601 contract trended slightly lower on November 26. The sugar production in the central - southern region of Brazil in the first half of November is expected to increase by 18.9% year - on - year to 1.075 million tons. The US sugar production in the 2025/26 season is expected to be 9.319 million short tons [4]. Rubber - Due to a large short - term decline, the Shanghai rubber futures trended slightly lower on November 26. Heavy rainfall in southern Thailand affected at least 13 million rai of rubber plantations, resulting in a loss of over 20,000 tons of rubber production. Thailand's total exports of natural rubber and mixed rubber in the first 10 months increased by 5.8% year - on - year to 3.64 million tons [4][5]. Palm Oil - On November 26, the decline of palm oil futures prices slowed down, and the main contract P2601 closed up 0.96% at 8,440. From November 1 - 25, 2025, Malaysia's palm oil yield per unit area increased by 3.34% month - on - month, the oil extraction rate increased by 0.41% month - on - month, and the production increased by 5.49% month - on - month [5]. Live Pigs - On November 26, the LH2601 main contract closed at 11,540 yuan/ton, up 1.1%. The inventory of breeding sows exceeds the normal level, the production efficiency has improved, and the number of newborn piglets remains high. The large - scale farms have a strong willingness to sell pigs at the end of the year, suppressing the upward movement of futures prices. The traditional bacon - making season has started, but the overall demand has not yet formed a scale [5]. Soybean Meal - Internationally, the CBOT soybeans closed slightly higher on November 26. Brazil's soybean exports in November are expected to reach 4.4 million tons. Domestically, the M2601 main contract closed at 3,015 yuan/ton, up 0.07%. The oil - mill crushing volume remains high, and the soybean meal inventory is sufficient. Chinese importers have made large - scale purchases of US soybeans, and the downstream is cautious about stockpiling [5]. Shanghai Copper - The main contract of Shanghai copper trended slightly stronger, opening at 86,750 yuan/ton and closing at 86,590 yuan/ton, up 0.20%. The trading volume was 107,213 lots, and the open interest was 204,728 lots [5]. Cotton - On the night of November 26, the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton closed at 13,645 yuan/ton. The cotton inventory decreased by 2 lots compared with the previous day. The purchase price of machine - picked cotton in Xinjiang on November 26 was 6.07 - 6.1 yuan/kg [6]. Logs - On November 26, the Log 2601 contract opened at 764, with a minimum of 762, a maximum of 768.5, and closed at 765, with an increase of 336 lots in open interest. The spot prices in Shandong and Jiangsu remained unchanged at 750 yuan/cubic meter. The log inventory has reached a three - month high [6][7][8]. Iron Ore - On November 26, the Iron Ore 2601 main contract closed up 0.19% at 797 yuan. The iron ore shipment volume has declined, the arrival volume has increased, and the port and steel - mill inventories have decreased. The iron - water output has declined again, and the short - term price is in a volatile trend [8]. Asphalt - On November 26, the Asphalt 2601 main contract closed down 0.56% at 3,043 yuan. The asphalt production plan of local refineries in December has decreased, the inventory is being depleted, and the shipment volume has increased slightly. However, due to weather conditions, the downstream demand is limited, and the short - term price is in a volatile trend [8]. Steel - On November 26, rb2601 closed at 3,099 yuan/ton, and hc2601 closed at 3,304 yuan/ton. The demand is facing seasonal decline and structural weakness. The real - estate industry continues to drag down the consumption of rebar, and the market trading may show a trend of "both volume and price decline" [8]. Alumina - On November 26, ao2601 closed at 2,720 yuan/ton. Recently, there has been some price - pressure in electrolytic aluminum tenders. The spot market trading was light, and the supply in the market may increase if futures warehouse receipts flow into the market, which may drive down the spot price [8]. Shanghai Aluminum - On November 26, al2601 closed at 21,455 yuan/ton. The supply is stable, and the aluminum ingot supply is good. The social inventory may continue to decline slightly. The demand is average, and the aluminum price remains in a volatile range. The performance in the plate, strip, foil, and industrial materials sectors is relatively stable, while the demand for aluminum rods and poles is average [8].

Investment consulting business qualification：CSRC License [2012] No. 669 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669 号 中 信 期 货 国 际 化 研 究 | 中 信 期 货 研 究 所 International 2024-10-09 中信期货国际化研究 | CITIC Futures International Research 2025/11/27 Macro News: China issued a the "Implementation Plan on Enhancing the Adaptability Between Supply and Demand of Consumer Goods to Further Promote Consumption". Futures Prices: On Nov 26th, equity index futures showed mixed performance while CGB futures declined; commodities displayed divergence, ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The log futures market is currently in a low - level oscillation. Last week, spot prices declined. The supply side has seen a continuous increase in arrivals, leading to inventory accumulation and significant market pressure. Demand remains resilient. The futures valuation is relatively low, and the significant inversion between domestic and foreign prices provides some support from import costs. Overall, in a weak fundamental situation, the log futures market is expected to operate weakly [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures and Spot Prices - **Futures Prices**: On November 26, the price of log 2601 was 765.0, up 0.5 (0.07%) from the previous day; log 2603 was 776.0, down 1.0 (-0.13%); log 2605 was 791.0, down 1.0 (-0.13%). The 01 - 03 spread was - 11.0, up 1.5; the 01 - 05 spread was - 26.0, up 1.5; the 03 - contract basis was - 26.0, up 1.0; the 01 - contract basis was - 15.0, down 0.5 [2]. - **Spot Prices**: Most spot prices remained stable, except for the 4A small - radiation pine in Taicang Port, which decreased by 10 (-1.43%) to 690 [2]. - **External Quotes**: The CFR prices of 4 - meter medium - A radiation pine and 11.8 - meter spruce remained unchanged on November 28 compared to November 21 [2]. - **Import Cost**: The RMB - US dollar exchange rate on November 26 was 7.077, down 0.02 from the previous day. The import theoretical cost was 807.03, down 1.88 [2]. Supply - **Monthly Supply**: In October, the port freight volume was 201.3 million cubic meters, up 24.7 (13.99%) from September. The number of departing ships from New Zealand to China, Japan, and South Korea was 54, up 8 (17.39%) [2]. Inventory - **Main Port Inventory**: As of November 21, the total inventory in Shandong was 303.0 million cubic meters, up 8.0 (5.68%) from November 14; in Jiangsu, it was 83.18 million cubic meters, down 0.5 (-0.57%) [2][3]. Demand - **Daily Average Out - bound Volume**: As of November 21, the daily average out - bound volume in China was 6.44 million cubic meters, down 0.12 (-2%); in Shandong, it was 3.59 million cubic meters, down 0.08 (-2%); in Jiangsu, it was 2.36 million cubic meters, down 0.08 (-3%) [3]. Forecast of Arrivals - From November 24 - 30, 2025, the number of expected arriving ships of New Zealand logs at 13 Chinese ports was 6, a week - on - week decrease of 7 (54%); the total arriving volume was about 21.7 million cubic meters, a week - on - week decrease of 20.1 million cubic meters (48%) [3].

Report Information - Report Name: Soda Ash and Glass Daily Report [1] - Date: November 27, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Energy and Chemical Research Team [4] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - Soda ash continues its weak pattern of supply - demand imbalance. In the short - term, it will experience bottom - grinding oscillations, and in the medium - to - long - term, it may be treated with a strategy of shorting on rebounds [8] - The current glass price has limited room to decline further. The mid - term market direction is still dominated by fundamentals. Without new market expectations, the downward trend of the market is difficult to reverse [9] Summary by Section 1. Soda Ash and Glass Market Review and Operation Suggestions Soda Ash - On November 26, the main soda ash futures contract SA601 oscillated at a low level. The closing price was 1,175 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged from the previous day, with a daily reduction of 27,403 lots in positions [7] - Soda ash maintains a weak supply - demand imbalance. Although weekly production and operating rates have declined, the absolute output remains high. Downstream float glass has a weak supply - demand situation, and the terminal real estate and photovoltaic demand show no significant improvement. Cost supports prices, but high inventory restricts price increases [8] Glass - On the fundamental side, the spot performance is lower than market expectations. The impact of the concentrated production suspension in Shahe is less than expected. Supply is stable, inventory remains high after the holiday, and demand from the real estate market is weak. However, as industry profits decline, cold - repairs are accelerating. If 5,000 tons of production lines are cold - repaired by the end of the year, inventory can be reduced, and a new supply - demand balance can be achieved. The glass price is currently undervalued, with limited room for further decline [9] 2. Data Overview - The report presents various data charts, including the price trends of soda ash and glass active contracts, soda ash weekly production, soda ash enterprise inventory, central China heavy soda market price, and flat glass production [13][17][18]