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市场情绪降温,碳酸锂价格企稳震荡,市场应关注什么?
Qi Huo Ri Bao Wang· 2026-02-14 00:39
Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that the recent fluctuations in lithium carbonate prices are primarily driven by a resonance between macro policies and fundamentals, with a shift from "macro emotional disturbances" to "fundamentals dominance" in trading logic [1][3][10] - As of February 13, lithium carbonate futures closed at 152,640 yuan/ton, reflecting a stabilization around the 150,000 yuan/ton mark after a period of volatility [1][4] - The lithium carbonate market is currently experiencing a supply-demand imbalance, with expectations of oversupply in the first half of 2025 due to trade frictions and weakening macro sentiment, leading to price drops below 60,000 yuan/ton [2][10] Group 2 - The introduction of lithium carbonate futures has effectively reduced the volatility of spot prices, with the average daily volatility decreasing from 1.68% to 1.16% post-futures listing [3][4] - Industry analysts note that the price of lithium carbonate is expected to show a fluctuating upward trend in 2025, driven by cost support, supply disruptions, and demand growth [2][4] - The futures market has become an essential tool for industry players, allowing them to hedge against price fluctuations and stabilize their operations, with nearly 3,000 enterprises participating in lithium carbonate futures trading [7][8] Group 3 - Recent data indicates that lithium carbonate inventory has decreased, with a reduction of 2,531 tons reported as of February 13, suggesting a tightening supply despite the traditional off-peak season [10][11] - The market is expected to maintain a tight balance throughout the year, with potential growth in demand from energy storage and power sectors, although supply uncertainties remain [11][12] - Analysts emphasize the importance of not over-relying on single pieces of information for trading decisions, as short-term disruptions may not significantly impact the overall supply-demand dynamics [12]
芝加哥小麦、大豆本周累涨超1.8%,纽约可可期货累跌约14.1%
Jin Rong Jie· 2026-02-13 21:35
Core Insights - The Bloomberg Commodity Index decreased by 0.68% to 30.0284 points on Friday, with a weekly increase of 1.37% [1] Grain Futures - CBOT corn futures remained flat at $4.4125 per bushel, with a weekly increase of 0.68% [1] - CBOT wheat futures fell by 1.75% to $5.4875 per bushel, but recorded a weekly increase of 1.81% [1] - CBOT soybean futures decreased by 0.22% to $11.4975 per bushel, with a weekly increase of 1.86% [1] - Soymeal futures rose by 0.19% with a weekly increase of 1.79%, while soybean oil futures dropped by 0.64% but had a weekly increase of 3.04% [1] Livestock Futures - CBOT lean hog futures experienced a cumulative decline of 6.76% this week [1] - Live cattle futures increased by 1.33% this week, while feeder cattle futures fell by 0.48% [1] Sugar and Coffee Futures - ICE raw sugar futures fell by 1.70%, and ICE white sugar futures decreased by 2.66% [1] - ICE Arabica coffee futures rose by 0.34%, while coffee "C" futures increased by 2.40% [1] - Robusta coffee futures saw a cumulative increase of 3.54% [1] Cocoa Futures - New York cocoa futures dropped by 14.07% to $3683 per ton, while London cocoa futures fell by 0.14% [1] Canola and Cotton Futures - Chicago WCE canola futures increased by 0.64% [1] - ICE cotton futures rose by 1.81% [1]
沪锌期货日报-20260213
Guo Jin Qi Huo· 2026-02-13 11:38
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report - The zinc market has no obvious fundamental drivers, and it is expected that the Shanghai zinc futures will maintain a range - bound oscillation in the short term due to the weak pre - holiday trading, seasonal decline in downstream demand, low inventory support, and macro - level pressure from the cooling of the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations caused by strong US non - farm payrolls data [6] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The main contract ZN2603.SHF of Shanghai zinc futures showed an oscillating trend today. The opening price was 24,750 yuan/ton, the highest price was 24,775 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 24,415 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 24,650 yuan/ton, up 0.67% from the previous trading day. It opened high, then oscillated downward, and finally stabilized and rebounded. The current price is in the upper - middle area of the one - month fluctuation range [2] 3.2 Spot Market Analysis - On February 12, 2026, the spot price of zinc in Shanghai was 22,510 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton from the previous trading day; in Guangdong, it was 22,490 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton; in Tianjin, it was 22,500 yuan/ton, also down 50 yuan/ton. The price of 0 zinc in the Tianjin market was between 24,370 - 24,380 yuan/ton [3] 3.3 Market Dynamics - The market has entered the pre - Spring Festival holiday state, with weak trading and purchasing. Downstream开工 has significantly declined, but the seasonal rhythm is in line with previous years. Both domestic mines and smelters have entered the production - reduction and maintenance cycle, the smelters' procurement demand has declined, and the import ore trading is scarce, with TC remaining stable overall [4] 3.4 Market Outlook - Pre - holiday market trading is light, downstream demand weakens seasonally, but low inventory supports prices. Strong US non - farm payrolls data cools the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations, putting pressure on the macro - level. Overall, the zinc market has no obvious fundamental drivers, and the Shanghai zinc futures are expected to maintain a range - bound oscillation in the short term [6]
不锈钢期货日报-20260213
Guo Jin Qi Huo· 2026-02-13 08:59
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - The stainless steel market is expected to show a wide - range oscillation pattern after the Spring Festival. The key factors affecting prices in the short - term are post - festival inventory accumulation and demand recovery rhythm. Supply contraction is obvious with a 23% month - on - month decrease in February production, which may relieve post - festival inventory pressure. The actual demand recovery of downstream manufacturing after the Lantern Festival needs to be observed. Attention should be paid to the changes in Indonesia's nickel - iron policy, downstream demand recovery, and macro - sentiment [6] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - On February 12, 2026, the closing price of the stainless steel futures main contract was 13,970 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 115,890 lots, an increase of 12,040 lots compared to the previous trading day. The open interest was 100,602 lots, and the settlement price was 14,075 yuan/ton, a rise of 205 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day [2] 3.2 Spot Market - Stainless steel main product prices remained stable. In the South China market, 304 cold - rolled coil prices were in the range of 13,800 - 13,890 yuan/ton, 430 cold - rolled coil prices were in the range of 7,250 - 7,400 yuan/ton, and 201 series prices were in the range of 7,100 - 8,100 yuan/ton. Stainless steel wire prices were mainly stable, with the 304 φ5.5 - 16 Qingshan white - line quoted at 14,600 yuan/ton in the Dainan market and 316L φ5.5 - 16 Qingshan quoted at 26,800 yuan/ton. In the stainless steel round - bar market, the Qingshan 304 round - bar was quoted at 13,900 yuan/ton and 316L round - bar at 25,100 yuan/ton in the Wenzhou market. Due to the approaching Spring Festival, market trading was light, and actual transactions were scarce [3] 3.3 Influencing Factors - In the raw material market, nickel prices showed an upward trend. On February 12, the nickel spot price index was 143,057 yuan/ton, a rise of 2,765 yuan/ton compared to the previous day. Chromium - iron prices remained stable, with the JCr99 - A Shanghai market price at 73,000 yuan/ton and the Jinzhou market price at 75,000 yuan/ton [4] - Technically, stainless steel futures prices have shown an oscillating trend recently. After hitting a low on February 2, the main contract rebounded but remained at a relatively low level. Trading volume gradually shrank before the festival, and changes in open interest indicated a decrease in market participation [5] 3.4 Market Outlook - After the Spring Festival, the stainless steel market is expected to be in a wide - range oscillation pattern. In the short - term, post - festival inventory accumulation and demand recovery rhythm are key price - influencing factors. Supply contraction is significant, with a 23% month - on - month decrease in February production, which may relieve post - festival inventory pressure. Downstream manufacturing is expected to gradually resume work after the Lantern Festival, and the actual demand recovery needs to be observed. Attention should be paid to changes in Indonesia's nickel - iron policy, downstream demand recovery, and macro - sentiment [6]
供需持续博弈,价格波动有限
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2026-02-13 08:16
Group 1: Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core Views - Industrial silicon prices are expected to remain range - bound. Supply contraction provides price support, but high polysilicon inventory suppresses demand, and the price lacks upward momentum. The upward potential depends on downstream demand recovery and inventory reduction, while the downward space is limited by cost support and production cut expectations [2] - Polysilicon prices are expected to continue to fluctuate. Supply contraction in February provides price support, but downstream cost drags down demand, and the large inventory is being reduced slowly, suppressing price increases. Before April, the "rush to export" phenomenon has no obvious driving force, and the market awaits the supply - demand game [5] Group 3: Market Analysis Industrial Silicon - On February 12, 2026, the industrial silicon futures price fluctuated and fell. The main contract 2605 opened at 8,375 yuan/ton and closed at 8,335 yuan/ton, a change of (-35) yuan/ton or (-0.42)% from the previous settlement. The position of the main contract 2605 at the close was 307,764 lots, and the number of warehouse receipts on February 11, 2026 was 19,317 lots, a change of 1,200 lots from the previous day [1] - The spot price of industrial silicon remained stable. The price of East China oxygen - permeable 553 silicon was 9,200 - 9,400 (0) yuan/ton; 421 silicon was 9,500 - 9,800 (0) yuan/ton; Xinjiang oxygen - permeable 553 price was 8,600 - 8,800 (0) yuan/ton; 99 silicon price was 8,600 - 8,800 (0) yuan/ton. Silicon prices in Kunming, Huangpu Port, Northwest, Tianjin, Xinjiang, Sichuan, and Shanghai remained flat, and the 97 silicon price was stable [1] - As of February 5, the total social inventory of industrial silicon in major areas was 562,000 tons, a 1.44% increase from the previous week [1] - The demand for industrial silicon continued to slump. The pre - holiday stocking was nearing the end, there were no new orders, and large polysilicon manufacturers cut production, so the market mainly focused on inventory reduction [1] - Large manufacturers have plans to cut production and stop work in February, and with the approaching Spring Festival holiday, the supply is expected to shrink [1] Polysilicon - On February 12, 2026, the main futures contract 2605 of polysilicon fluctuated and rose. It opened at 48,840 yuan/ton and closed at 49,015 yuan/ton, a 0.44% change in the closing price from the previous trading day. The position of the main contract was 37,702 (38,313 in the previous trading day) lots, and the trading volume on the day was 4,540 lots [2] - The spot price of polysilicon slightly declined. N - type material was 48.50 - 58.00 (-0.40) yuan/kg, and n - type granular silicon was 49.00 - 51.00 (0.00) yuan/kg [3] - The inventory of polysilicon manufacturers and silicon wafers increased. The latest polysilicon inventory was 34.90, with a 2.30% month - on - month change, and the silicon wafer inventory was 28.32GW, a 6.14% month - on - month change. The weekly polysilicon production was 20,100.00 tons, with a 0.00% month - on - month change, and the silicon wafer production was 10.38GW, a - 3.18% month - on - month change [3] - The prices of domestic N - type 18Xmm silicon wafers were 1.13 (0.00) yuan/piece, N - type 210mm was 1.43 (0.00) yuan/piece, and N - type 210R silicon wafers were 1.23 (0.00) yuan/piece [3] - The prices of battery chips were stable. The price of high - efficiency PERC182 battery chips was 0.27 (0.00) yuan/W; PERC210 battery chips were about 0.28 (0.00) yuan/W; Topcon M10 battery chips were about 0.44 (0.00) yuan/W; Topcon G12 battery chips were 0.44 (0.00) yuan/W; Topcon 210RN battery chips were 0.44 (0.00) yuan/W; HJT210 half - cell battery was 0.37 (0.00) yuan/W [3][4] - The mainstream transaction prices of components were stable. PERC182mm was 0.67 - 0.74 (0.00) yuan/W, PERC210mm was 0.69 - 0.73 (0.00) yuan/W, N - type 182mm was 0.73 - 0.74 (0.00) yuan/W, and N - type 210mm was 0.75 - 0.77 (0.00) yuan/W [4] Group 4: Strategies Industrial Silicon - Unilateral: Short - term range operation - Inter - period: None - Options: None [2] Polysilicon - Unilateral: Short - term range operation, and the main contract is expected to maintain a slight fluctuation in the short term - Inter - period: None - Cross - variety: None - Spot - futures: None - Options: None [5]
黑色建材日报:供需同步走弱,钢价震荡运行-20260213
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2026-02-13 08:16
Report Industry Investment Ratings - Steel: Oscillating [1] - Iron Ore: Oscillating with a bearish bias [3] - Coking Coal and Coke: Oscillating [5][6] - Thermal Coal: Stable with a slight upward trend before the holiday, may face pressure after the holiday [7] Core Views - Steel market shows simultaneous weakening of supply and demand, with steel prices oscillating weakly due to pre - holiday inventory growth and lack of raw material drive [1] - Iron ore market has a large supply - demand contradiction, with port inventory slightly decreasing and iron water output rising. If port liquidity issues are resolved, there will be a large supply impact [3] - Coking coal and coke markets have a quiet trading atmosphere before the holiday. Coke prices are expected to oscillate with cost fluctuations, and coking coal prices are expected to be stable with narrow adjustments [5][6] - Thermal coal market has limited trading volume, with prices rising slightly due to supply contraction and expected to be stable and slightly strong before the holiday, but may face pressure after the holiday [7] Summary by Commodity Steel - **Market Analysis**: Futures prices of steel oscillated downward. This week, steel demand dropped significantly, and inventory accumulation accelerated. The output of the five major steel products was 794100 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 25800 tons. The inventory was 1.4427 million tons, with an inventory accumulation of 105000 tons (last week's inventory accumulation was 59000 tons). The apparent demand was 689100 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 71600 tons [1] - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: The overall contradiction in the steel market is not prominent. Before the holiday, the construction material terminal is stagnant, and the rebar price is weak. The plate demand is relatively stable, but high inventory restricts the price space of hot - rolled coils. The steel inventory continues to grow before the holiday, and the supply - demand pressure increases slightly. With weak raw material drive, steel prices will oscillate weakly. Later, attention should be paid to winter storage replenishment and raw material price changes [1] - **Strategy**: Unilateral: Oscillating; Other strategies: None [2] Iron Ore - **Market Analysis**: Iron ore futures prices oscillated. In the spot market, the prices of mainstream imported iron ore varieties in Tangshan Port fluctuated slightly. The daily average molten iron output of 247 steel mills was 330490 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1910 tons. The total inventory of 45 ports was 169.46 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.94 million tons [3] - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: On the supply side, non - mainstream shipments remain high at high ore prices, and global shipments decline seasonally, with port inventory slightly decreasing. On the demand side, the daily average molten iron output has increased slightly. After steel mills complete replenishment, the support for raw material prices is weak. The supply - demand contradiction is still large. If port liquidity issues are resolved, there will be a large supply impact. Later, attention should be paid to iron ore inventory changes and negotiation progress [3] - **Strategy**: Unilateral: Oscillating with a bearish bias; Other strategies: None [4] Coking Coal and Coke - **Market Analysis**: The futures prices of coking coal and coke oscillated narrowly. The trading atmosphere of coking coal was quiet before the holiday, and the price decreased slightly. The spot price of coke was relatively stable, and most steel mills had completed inventory replenishment. This week, coking coal inventory decreased significantly, and coke inventory increased slightly [5] - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: For coke, supply has increased slightly recently. Most steel mills have completed winter storage replenishment. Before the holiday, coking plants adjust production independently, and the price is expected to oscillate and follow cost fluctuations. For coking coal, the molten iron output of steel mills has increased, and the rigid demand maintains resilience. After downstream replenishment is completed, speculative demand shrinks. Before the Spring Festival, coal mines stop production and take holidays one after another, and Mongolian coal customs clearance is suspended during the Spring Festival, so the supply pressure of coking coal is relieved. It is expected that the coal price will be stable with narrow adjustments before the Spring Festival. Attention should be paid to the resumption of domestic coal production after the holiday [6] - **Strategy**: Coking coal: Oscillating; Coke: Oscillating; Other strategies: None [6] Thermal Coal - **Market Analysis**: In the production area, most private coal mines are on holiday, and supply further shrinks. In the port area, most traders are on holiday, and market trading is light. In the import market, the Indonesian policy has not been implemented, and the market pattern remains unchanged [7] - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: Recently, due to coal mine holidays, supply has shrunk, and downstream factories are also on holiday, so both supply and demand are weak. Affected by supply in the import market, the price of domestic coal continues to rise slightly. It is expected that the Indonesian supply will recover later. Overall, the price increase space before the holiday is limited, and it is expected to run stably and slightly strongly. After the holiday, when coal mine supply recovers and the peak season is approaching the end, coal prices may face pressure [7]
供需同步走弱,钢价震荡运行
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2026-02-13 07:54
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views - The supply and demand of steel are both weakening, and steel prices are fluctuating. Glass and soda ash are experiencing range - bound oscillations due to pre - holiday cautious sentiment. For double silicon, the market is mainly in a wait - and - see mode as the Spring Festival approaches [1][3] - Glass market fundamentals have no obvious improvement. Although the expected production halt in Shahe eases supply pressure, pre - holiday demand is weak, and inventory is accumulating. Soda ash supply is abundant with new production projects advancing, and pre - holiday demand is seasonally low [1] - The fundamentals of silicon manganese have improved slightly with expected increase in iron - water production, but inventory pressure remains high. The fundamentals of silicon iron are controllable, and demand is expected to improve marginally as steel mills resume production, but overall over - capacity restricts price increases [3] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Glass and Soda Ash Market Analysis - Glass contracts showed narrow - range fluctuations yesterday, with decreasing positions as the holiday nears. Spot prices are stable, but trading volume is low. This week, cold - repair of production lines increased, daily melting volume dropped, and inventory rose. Soda ash contracts also had narrow - range fluctuations, with low spot trading volume. This week, soda ash production increased slightly, heavy - ash inventory rose slightly, and light - ash inventory decreased [1] Supply - Demand and Logic - Glass fundamentals have no significant improvement. The expected production halt in Shahe eases supply pressure, but pre - holiday demand is weak, and inventory accumulation continues. Soda ash supply is in a loose pattern. With new production projects advancing, production remains high, and inventory is increasing. Pre - holiday demand drops seasonally, and the new production projects need to be monitored [1] Strategy - Glass: Range - bound fluctuations; Soda ash: Range - bound fluctuations; No strategies for inter - period and inter - variety trading [2] Double Silicon Market Analysis - Silicon manganese futures continued to fluctuate slightly, and the market was quiet with a strong holiday atmosphere. The price of 6517 silicon manganese is 5580 - 5680 yuan/ton in the northern market and 5700 - 5750 yuan/ton in the southern market. Silicon iron futures followed the overall black - metal market downwards, and the spot market was weak. Most of the market is in a wait - and - see mode. The price of 72 - grade silicon iron in the main production areas is 5250 - 5350 yuan/ton, and that of 75 - grade silicon iron is 5850 - 6000 yuan/ton [3] Supply - Demand and Logic - Silicon manganese fundamentals have improved slightly, and iron - water production is expected to increase, leading to marginal improvement in demand. However, inventory pressure is still high. The South African tariff policy may increase manganese ore costs. Silicon iron fundamentals are controllable. Enterprises are reducing production, and demand is expected to improve as steel mills resume production. But overall over - capacity restricts price increases, and inventory reduction and power - price policies need to be monitored [3] Strategy - Silicon manganese: Range - bound fluctuations; Silicon iron: Range - bound fluctuations [4]
苯乙烯下游节前负荷下降
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2026-02-13 07:53
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core View of the Report - Pure benzene: The port inventory was still at a high level before the holiday. The domestic production rate has started to recover from the bottom. The arrival of imports has rebounded from the bottom, and there is still pressure on shipments to China in the future. The downstream production performance is acceptable, with the styrene production rate starting to recover from the bottom, the caprolactam production rate remaining at a low level, and the production rates of phenol, aniline, and adipic acid all performing well [1][3] - Styrene: The domestic production peak has passed, and Tianjin Bohua has resumed production. Attention should be paid to the resumption plans of Shandong Yuhuang and Jingbo, which have been shut down for a long time. The styrene production profit has started to peak and decline, and the market is worried that the supply may return more than expected under the current production profit. The port inventory declined again in the middle of the week, and the seasonal inventory accumulation was not realized before the holiday. EPS rapidly reduced its production load seasonally before the holiday, and the inventory increased seasonally; the PS production load declined again, but the inventory pressure was not large; after the ABS inventory pressure eased, the production rebounded [3] 3. Summary According to the Directory I. Basis Structure and Inter - Period Spreads of Pure Benzene and EB - Pure benzene: The main basis is -1 yuan/ton (+63), and the spread between East China pure benzene spot and M2 is -125 yuan/ton (+10 yuan/ton) [1] - Styrene: The main basis is 152 yuan/ton (+34 yuan/ton) [1] II. Production Profits and Internal - External Spreads of Pure Benzene and Styrene - Pure benzene: The CFR China processing fee is 161 dollars/ton (+7 dollars/ton), the FOB South Korea processing fee is 160 dollars/ton (+8 dollars/ton), and the US - South Korea spread is 154.3 dollars/ton (-4.0 dollars/ton). The production profits of downstream products vary, with aniline having a relatively high profit of 1235 yuan/ton (+174) [1] - Styrene: The non - integrated production profit is 403 yuan/ton (-17 yuan/ton), and it is expected to gradually compress [1] III. Inventory and Production Rates of Pure Benzene and Styrene - Pure benzene: The port inventory is 29.70 million tons (-0.80 million tons), and the production rate has started to recover from the bottom [1][3] - Styrene: The East China port inventory is 96,200 tons (-12,400 tons), the East China commercial inventory is 54,000 tons (-6,800 tons), and it is in the inventory rebuilding stage. The production rate is 71.1% (+1.1%) [1] IV. Production Rates and Profits of Styrene Downstream - EPS: The production profit is 321 yuan/ton (+10 yuan/ton), and the production rate is 48.02% (-8.22%) [2] - PS: The production profit is -329 yuan/ton (+10 yuan/ton), and the production rate is 54.00% (-1.20%) [2] - ABS: The production profit is -651 yuan/ton (+6 yuan/ton), and the production rate is 68.90% (+4.50%) [2] V. Production Rates and Profits of Pure Benzene Downstream - Caprolactam: The production profit is -630 yuan/ton (+30), and the production rate is 74.10% (+0.94%) [1] - Phenol - acetone: The production profit is -716 yuan/ton (+0), and the phenol production rate is 89.00% (+3.00%) [1] - Aniline: The production profit is 1235 yuan/ton (+174), and the production rate is 89.25% (+0.21%) [1] - Adipic acid: The production profit is -163 yuan/ton (-9), and the production rate is 69.00% (-0.10%) [1] 4. Strategy - Unilateral: None - Basis and Inter - Period: None - Cross - Variety: Short EB2604 and long BZ2603 [4]
收评|国内期货主力合约跌多涨少 集运欧线涨超3%
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2026-02-13 07:08
Core Viewpoint - Domestic futures contracts experienced a mixed performance, with some contracts rising while others fell significantly, indicating volatility in the market [3][7]. Group 1: Price Movements - The shipping index for Europe rose over 3%, while lithium carbonate, caustic soda, soybean meal, and eggs increased by more than 2% [3][7]. - In contrast, Shanghai tin dropped over 7%, silver fell more than 5%, and SC crude oil decreased by over 4% [3][7]. Group 2: Inventory and Market Dynamics - Recent technical recovery in tin prices saw them rise from around 360,000 to just below 400,000 yuan per ton, facing upward pressure at this key level [5]. - A significant increase in warehouse receipts was noted, with a daily accumulation of 3,780 tons, raising total inventory from 6,516 tons to 10,296 tons, marking a daily increase of over 50% [5]. - The increase in inventory is attributed to major smelting companies delivering large amounts of stock, rather than a deterioration in the fundamental market conditions [5]. Group 3: Seasonal and Economic Considerations - The market is entering a seasonal slowdown due to the upcoming Spring Festival, with logistics and transportation gradually halting, and downstream soldering companies entering a holiday state [5]. - Post-holiday, attention will be on the resumption of production by downstream enterprises and the speed of inventory digestion under low hidden inventory conditions [5].
农产品日报(2026 年2 月13日)-20260213
Guang Da Qi Huo· 2026-02-13 05:01
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Corn is expected to be weak in a volatile manner. The main corn contract 2605 increased in positions and rose this week, breaking through the upper limit of the volatile range. The market is mainly led by macro and capital factors. The spot market is inactive, and the price of Northeast corn is stable. The trading activity is low before the Spring Festival, and the price remains basically unchanged. The downstream feed enterprises are still cautious and观望, and the purchasing speed is slow [1]. - Soybean meal is expected to be volatile. The CBOT soybean reached a two - month high on Thursday. The market interprets the news of Trump's planned visit to China and the close communication between China and the US economic and trade teams as positive for US soybean exports. However, the weekly export sales data is lower than expected. In China, the protein meal increased in price with a decrease in positions. The rise in US soybeans drives up the import cost and boosts the domestic protein meal market. The spot market trading is light, and the basis is firm. The strategy is to participate in the short - term and exit the 5 - 9 reverse spread [1]. - Oils are expected to be volatile. The BMD palm oil fell for the third consecutive day on Thursday, affected by the appreciation of the Malaysian ringgit and the weakness of the surrounding markets. Industry experts expect the price of Malaysian palm oil to decline due to sufficient supply and weak demand. In China, palm oil prices are falling, while soybean oil and rapeseed oil prices are firm. The market continues to digest the negative news, and the spot market has little guidance on the futures. The strategy is to focus on the short - term [1]. - Eggs are expected to be volatile. The main egg futures contract 2604 continued to rebound on Thursday, rising 1.39%. The spot price of eggs decreased slightly. As the Spring Festival approaches, most markets in the sales areas are closed. It is recommended to hold a light position or no position during the festival and pay attention to the changes in egg demand and related commodity prices [1]. - Pigs are expected to be volatile. The main pig futures contract 2605 fell slightly on Thursday. The spot price of pigs increased in some areas and remained stable or decreased in others. As the Spring Festival approaches, the slaughter volume of the breeding end decreases, and the price - supporting attitude is positive. It is necessary to pay attention to the changes in spot prices and related commodity prices during the festival [1][2]. 3. Summary of Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Information - On February 9, the "Agricultural Product Wholesale Price 200 Index" was 129.51, down 0.25 points from last Friday, and the "Basket of Vegetables" product wholesale price index was 132.33, down 0.29 points from last Friday. As of 14:00 today, the average price of pork in the national agricultural product wholesale market was 18.34 yuan/kg, unchanged from last Friday; beef was 66.08 yuan/kg, down 0.6% from last Friday; mutton was 64.51 yuan/kg, up 0.1% from last Friday; eggs were 8.39 yuan/kg, down 1.4% from last Friday; and white - striped chickens were 17.18 yuan/kg, down 1.3% from last Friday [3]. - As it is the last week before the Spring Festival, many soybean crushing plants have stopped production and are on holiday. Most of them stopped production from February 9 - 12 and will resume operation from February 24 - 26. Feed and breeding enterprises have stocked up in advance, and the market trading is light. Although the operating rate of the plants decreases after the shutdown, due to limited purchases after the stockpiling, the soybean inventory in the plants is sufficient, and the supply of soybean meal is loose, leading to a continued weak downward trend in soybean meal prices [3]. 3.2 Variety Spreads - The report provides charts of contract spreads and contract basis for various agricultural products, including corn, corn starch, soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil, palm oil, eggs, and pigs, but no specific spread data is analyzed in the text [4][13]. 3.3 Introduction of the Agricultural Product Research Team - Wang Na is the director of the agricultural product research at Everbright Futures Research Institute and the leader of the top ten investment research teams of the Dalian Commodity Exchange. She has won the "Best Agricultural Product Analyst" title in the Futures Daily and Securities Times' best futures analyst selection for many years. She has rich experience and has led the team to win many honors [27]. - Hou Xueling is a soybean analyst at Everbright Futures, with more than ten years of futures experience. She has also won the "Best Agricultural Product Analyst" title and her team has won many awards [27]. - Kong Hailan, an economics master, is the researcher of the egg and pig industries at Everbright Futures Research Institute. She has participated in many media interviews and her team has won multiple honors [27].