Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) will implement a moderately loose monetary policy in 2026, focusing on stabilizing economic growth and ensuring reasonable price recovery as key considerations for monetary policy [1] Monetary Policy Direction - The PBOC aims to maintain ample liquidity and align the growth of social financing and money supply with economic growth and price level expectations, indicating room for further cuts in reserve requirement ratios (RRR) and interest rates this year [1] - The PBOC will enhance the execution and supervision of interest rate policies to keep the comprehensive financing costs low [1] Structural Policy Focus - The PBOC will optimize the design and management of structural monetary policy tools, guiding financial institutions to increase support for major strategies, key areas, and weak links [1] - Recent monetary policies have been released to optimize the elements of structural monetary policy tools [1] Financial Market Stability - The PBOC emphasizes maintaining stable financial markets, managing expectations, and ensuring the RMB exchange rate remains stable at a reasonable level [2] - There will be a focus on strengthening supervision across various markets, including bonds, foreign exchange, and gold [2] Monetary Policy Framework - The PBOC plans to optimize the monetary policy target system, reducing emphasis on quantitative targets and allowing for more effective interest rate adjustments [3] - A market-oriented interest rate formation and transmission mechanism will be established to improve the flow from central bank policy rates to market rates [3] Macro-Prudential Management - The PBOC will enhance monitoring and assessment of systemic financial risks, recognizing the strong correlation between economic operations and financial risks [4] - The scope of macro-prudential management will be expanded to include financial markets, non-bank financial institutions, and internet finance [4] Tool Development and Legal Framework - The PBOC will enrich and standardize macro-prudential management tools, ensuring a comprehensive management process [5] - Legislative efforts will be made to strengthen the legal framework for macro-prudential policies and enhance coordination with monetary and micro-prudential regulations [5]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints The bond market is experiencing a volatile adjustment, with all Treasury bond futures closing lower. Influenced by the stock market, the Political Bureau meeting signaled loose monetary policy, the LPR remained unchanged, and the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations and rising global trade uncertainties increased the uncertainty of foreign capital inflows. Overall, the bond market is oscillating between stable growth and easing expectations, and short - term attention should be paid to policy signals at the end of the month [1][3]. 3. Summary by Directory I. Interest Rate Pricing Tracking Indicators - **Price Indicators**: China's monthly CPI had a 0.20% month - on - month increase and 0.80% year - on - year increase; monthly PPI had a 0.20% month - on - month increase and - 1.90% year - on - year increase [8]. - **Monthly Economic Indicators**: The social financing scale was 442.12 trillion yuan, a 0.47% increase from the previous month; M2 year - on - year growth was 8.50%, a 6.25% increase from the previous month; the manufacturing PMI was 50.10%, a 1.83% increase from the previous month [9]. - **Daily Economic Indicators**: The US dollar index was 98.28, a - 0.51% change from the previous day; the offshore US dollar to RMB exchange rate was 6.9647, a 0.10% increase from the previous day. Other indicators such as SHIBOR 7 - day, DR007, etc. also showed corresponding changes [9]. II. Overview of Treasury Bonds and Treasury Bond Futures Market - **Closing Price and Fluctuation**: On January 22, 2026, the closing prices of TS, TF, T, and TL were 102.41 yuan, 105.84 yuan, 108.15 yuan, and 112.17 yuan respectively, with fluctuations of - 0.02%, - 0.04%, - 0.05%, and - 0.07% respectively [3]. - **Other Indicators**: The average net basis of TS, TF, T, and TL was 0.018 yuan, 0.019 yuan, - 0.013 yuan, and 0.069 yuan respectively [3]. III. Overview of the Money Market Liquidity - **Central Bank Operations**: On January 22, 2026, the central bank conducted 210.2 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations at a fixed interest rate of 1.4% [2]. - **Repo Rates**: The main term repo rates of 1D, 7D, 14D, and 1M were 1.413%, 1.497%, 1.590%, and 1.557% respectively, and the repo rates have recently declined [2]. IV. Spread Overview - **Inter - period and Inter - variety Spreads**: There are various spread indicators such as the inter - period spread of Treasury bond futures and the inter - variety spread between spot bonds and futures, including 4*TS - T, 2*TS - TF, etc. [26][29][35] V. Two - year Treasury Bond Futures - **Implied Interest Rate and Yield**: The implied interest rate of the two - year Treasury bond futures main contract and the yield of Treasury bonds are presented, along with the IRR of the TS main contract and the relationship with the funding rate [38][40]. - **Basis and Net Basis**: The three - year basis and net basis trends of the TS main contract are shown [46]. VI. Five - year Treasury Bond Futures - **Implied Interest Rate and Yield**: The implied interest rate of the five - year Treasury bond futures main contract and the yield of Treasury bonds are presented, along with the IRR of the TF main contract and the relationship with the funding rate [47]. - **Basis and Net Basis**: The three - year basis and net basis trends of the TF main contract are shown [54]. VII. Ten - year Treasury Bond Futures - **Implied Yield and Yield**: The implied yield of the ten - year Treasury bond futures main contract and the yield of Treasury bonds are presented, along with the IRR of the T main contract and the relationship with the funding rate [55]. - **Basis and Net Basis**: The three - year basis and net basis trends of the T main contract are shown [56]. VIII. Thirty - year Treasury Bond Futures - **Implied Yield and Yield**: The implied yield of the thirty - year Treasury bond futures main contract and the yield of Treasury bonds are presented, along with the IRR of the TL main contract and the relationship with the funding rate [61]. - **Basis and Net Basis**: The three - year basis and net basis trends of the TL main contract are shown [67]. 4. Strategies - **Unilateral Strategy**: With the decline in repo rates, Treasury bond futures prices are oscillating [4]. - **Arbitrage Strategy**: Pay attention to the decline in the basis of the 2603 contract [4]. - **Hedging Strategy**: There is medium - term adjustment pressure, and short - side investors can use far - month contracts for moderate hedging [4].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - Rising risk sentiment in the copper market supports copper prices [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: The closing price of the Shanghai Copper main contract was 100,700, down 0.57%, and the night - session closing price was 100,270, down 0.43%. The LME Copper 3M electronic disk closed at 12,840, up 0.62%. The trading volume of the Shanghai Copper Index was 321,730, a decrease of 121,398 from the previous day, and the open interest was 647,275, an increase of 772. The trading volume of the LME Copper 3M electronic disk was 28,201, an increase of 4,664, and the open interest was 316,000, a decrease of 1,559 [1] - **Inventory Data**: Shanghai Copper inventory was 143,173, a decrease of 2,408, and LME Copper inventory was 168,250, an increase of 8,850. The cancellation warrant ratio was 27.99%, a decrease of 1.38% [1] - **Spread Data**: The LME copper premium, Shanghai 1 bright copper price, and various spreads such as spot - to - futures near - month spread, near - month contract to continuous - first contract spread, etc., all showed different degrees of change compared with the previous day [1] Macro and Industry News - **Macro**: The Fed's preferred inflation indicator met expectations. The US November PCE price index was 2.8% year - on - year and 0.2% month - on - month, with robust growth in personal spending. Pan Gongsheng said that there is still room for reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts this year [1] - **Industry**: During the 15th Five - Year Plan period, the State Grid Corporation's fixed - asset investment is expected to reach 4 trillion yuan, a 40% increase compared with the 14th Five - Year Plan. Ivanhoe Mines achieved its 2025 copper and zinc production targets. The union of the Mantoverde copper - gold mine in Chile condemned the company for illegally replacing workers during a 15 - day strike. In December 2025, China's copper ore concentrate imports increased by 7.05% month - on - month and 7.32% year - on - year, refined copper imports decreased by 2.19% month - on - month and 27.00% year - on - year, and scrap copper imports increased by 14.81% month - on - month and 9.90% year - on - year. Japanese copper smelters are still negotiating 2026 TC/RC with global miners [1][3] Trend Intensity - The copper trend intensity is 1, indicating a relatively neutral view on the copper price trend [3]

Core Insights - The report highlights the slight increase in the US GDP for the third quarter, which is above expectations, indicating a resilient economic performance [4] - The European Central Bank's meeting minutes suggest that maintaining stable interest rates for an extended period may be appropriate, reflecting a cautious approach to monetary policy [4] - The report mentions the potential for further reductions in reserve requirements and interest rates in China, indicating a supportive monetary stance to stimulate economic growth [4] Economic Data Summary - The Baltic Dry Index increased by 4.28% to 1803.00, indicating a positive trend in shipping rates [5] - The Nasdaq Index rose by 0.91% to 23436.02, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average increased by 0.63% to 49384.01, reflecting a bullish sentiment in the US stock market [5] - Crude oil prices (ICE Brent) decreased by 1.29% to $64.40, while gold prices (London Gold Spot) increased by 2.18% to $4938.35, showing mixed trends in commodity markets [5] - The US dollar index fell by 0.50% to 98.28, indicating a weakening dollar against other currencies [5] - The Hang Seng Index closed at 26629.96, up by 0.17%, while the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.14% to 4122.58, reflecting stability in the Hong Kong and mainland Chinese markets [5]

行业 国债日报 日期 2026 年 1 月 23 日 研究员：何卓乔(宏观贵金属) 18665641296 hezhuoqiao@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3008762 研究员：黄雯昕(国债集运) 021-60635739 huangwenxin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3051589 研究员：聂嘉怡(股指) 021-60635735 niejiayi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03124070 宏观金融团队 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 | | 表1：国债期货1月22日交易数据汇总 | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 合约 | 前结算价 | 开盘价 | 收盘价 | 结算价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 （%） | 成交量 | 持仓量 | 仓差 | | TL2603 | 112.250 | 112.090 | 112.170 | 112.220 | -0.080 | -0.07 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - Zinc has upward elasticity [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - **Price**: The closing price of the main contract of Shanghai Zinc was 24,400 yuan/ton, up 0.21%; the closing price of the LME Zinc 3M electronic disk was 3,175 US dollars/ton, unchanged [1] - **Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of the main contract of Shanghai Zinc was 131,273 lots, a decrease of 14,813 lots; the trading volume of LME Zinc was 10,031 lots, a decrease of 1,448 lots. The open interest of the main contract of Shanghai Zinc was 118,558 lots, a decrease of 3,135 lots; the open interest of LME Zinc was 228,807 lots, a decrease of 649 lots [1] - **Premium and Discount**: The premium of Shanghai 0 zinc was 55 yuan/ton, unchanged; the LME CASH - 3M premium was -40.12 US dollars/ton, an increase of 3.45 US dollars/ton. The premium of Guangdong 0 zinc was 20 yuan/ton, an increase of 5 yuan/ton; the import bill of lading premium was 135 US dollars/ton, unchanged. The premium of Tianjin 0 zinc was -15 yuan/ton, unchanged; the spot import profit and loss of zinc ingots was -1,844.12 yuan/ton, an increase of 88.46 yuan/ton. ZN00 - ZN01 was -45 yuan/ton, unchanged; the import profit and loss of Shanghai Zinc continuous three was -1,779.24 yuan/ton, an increase of 30.12 yuan/ton [1] - **Inventory**: The inventory of Shanghai Zinc futures was 30,300 tons, a decrease of 747 tons; the LME zinc inventory was 111,700 tons, a decrease of 150 tons. The LME zinc cancelled warrants were 8,825 tons, a decrease of 150 tons; the LME off - warrant (T + 3) was 27,758 tons, a decrease of 4,958 tons [1] - **Related Product Prices**: The tax - included price of 1.0mm hot - dipped galvanized coil was 4,077 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of Shanghai Zamak - 5 zinc alloy was 25,560 yuan/ton, an increase of 100 yuan/ton; the price of Shanghai Zamak - 3 zinc alloy was 24,985 yuan/ton, an increase of 100 yuan/ton. The price of zinc oxide ≥99.7% was 23,100 yuan/ton, an increase of 100 yuan/ton [1] News - The governor of the People's Bank of China, Pan Gongsheng, said that there is still room for reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts this year, and multiple monetary policy tools such as reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts will be used flexibly and efficiently. He also mentioned maintaining the basic stability of the RMB exchange rate, strengthening market supervision, and establishing a mechanism to provide liquidity to non - bank institutions in specific scenarios, and continuing to use two monetary policy tools to support the capital market [2] - The final value of the US Q3 real GDP quarterly - on - quarterly growth rate was slightly revised up to 4.4%, the fastest growth rate in two years, and the core PCE inflation remained at 2.9%. The market generally expects the Fed to keep interest rates unchanged at the next week's interest - rate meeting [2][3] Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of zinc is 1, indicating a relatively strong trend [3]

Monetary Policy - The central bank will continue to implement a moderately loose monetary policy in 2026, utilizing various tools such as reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate reductions to maintain ample liquidity [2][7] - There is still room for further reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate reductions this year [2][7] - The People's Bank of China aims to stabilize the RMB exchange rate at a reasonable and balanced level and enhance supervision of various financial markets [2][7] Economic Indicators - The U.S. GDP for Q3 2025 was revised to an annualized growth rate of 4.4%, surpassing the initial estimate of 4.3%, marking the fastest growth in nearly two years [2][7] - The core PCE price index in the U.S. rose by 2.8% year-on-year and 0.2% month-on-month in November, aligning with expectations [2][7] - Initial jobless claims in the U.S. were reported at 200,000, lower than the expected 210,000 [2][7] Market Performance - A-shares experienced a slight increase, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.14% to close at 4122.58 points, and the ChiNext Index increasing by 1.01% [3][8] - The trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 2.7 trillion yuan [3][8] - U.S. stock indices all closed higher, with the Nasdaq rising by 0.91% to 23436.02 points [3][8] Investment Strategies - The continuation of a moderately loose monetary policy and the implementation of the personal consumption loan interest subsidy policy are expected to support consumer recovery [9] - The current trend of policy adjustment is cooling, and there may be opportunities to focus on the IC index for entry [9]

2026年01月23日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-贵金属及基本金属 观点与策略 | 黄金：再创新高 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 白银：冲刺100 | 2 | | 铜：风险情绪上升，支撑价格 | 4 | | 锌：具备向上弹性 | 6 | | 铅：海外库存减少，支撑价格 | 8 | | 锡：区间震荡 | 9 | | 铝：高位震荡 | 10 | | 氧化铝：小幅反弹 | 10 | | 铸造铝合金：跟随电解铝 | 10 | | 铂：交易重心上移 | 12 | | 钯：跟随上行 | 12 | | 镍：印尼言论反复扰动情绪，镍价宽幅震荡运行 | 14 | | 不锈钢：盘面锚定矿端矛盾，镍铁跟涨支撑重心 | 14 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 商 品 研 究 2026 年 1 月 23 日 黄金：再创新高 白银：冲刺 100 1、美国 Q3 实际 GDP 季环比终值小幅上修至 4.4%，创两年来最快增速，核心 PCE 通胀保持在 2.9%。 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 刘雨萱 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020476 liuyu ...

Economic Policy - The People's Bank of China will continue to implement a moderately loose monetary policy in 2026, utilizing various tools such as reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate reductions to maintain ample liquidity [1] - The Ministry of Commerce and nine other departments have issued opinions to promote high-quality development in the pharmaceutical retail industry, supporting mergers and acquisitions among retail pharmacies [1] Capital Market Developments - The People's Bank of China announced a 900 billion yuan MLF operation to maintain liquidity in the banking system, with a one-year term [3] - Public funds have focused on core sectors such as electronics and power equipment, with Zhongji Xuchuang becoming the largest holding stock, valued at 78.421 billion yuan [3] - The National Development and Reform Commission has allocated 93.6 billion yuan in special bonds to support over 4,500 projects across various sectors, driving total investment exceeding 460 billion yuan [3] Industry Highlights - The commercial aerospace sector is gaining attention, with Blue Arrow Aerospace's IPO status changing to "inquiry" as it aims to become the first commercial aerospace stock [7] - Domestic AI chip company Suiyuan Technology has received approval for its IPO, aiming to raise 6 billion yuan for AI chip development [7] - The human-shaped robot sector remains active, with Zhejiang's innovation center completing a 450 million yuan Pre-A round of financing [7] Company Updates - Zhaoyi Innovation expects a net profit of 1.61 billion yuan for 2025, a year-on-year increase of approximately 46%, benefiting from AI computing demand [8] - ST Biology announced the termination of its major asset restructuring plan to acquire a 51% stake in Hunan Huize Biomedical Technology [9] - Xiaomi Group plans to repurchase up to 2.5 billion Hong Kong dollars of its Class B shares starting January 23 [10] - Alibaba has decided to support its chip subsidiary "Pingtouge" for future independent listing, initiating a restructuring process [11] - Intel reported a fourth-quarter revenue of 13.674 billion dollars, with a net loss of 591 million dollars, while its annual revenue was 52.853 billion dollars [11]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The short - term double - silicon steel mills are gradually implemented with a decline. The overall fundamentals are weak recently. As the Spring Festival holiday in February approaches, the pre - holiday demand release expectation for silicon manganese will gradually decrease, and the bargaining sentiment in the silicon manganese market is rising. The supply level remains at a relatively high position. The short - term disk shows strong support below and has a slight rebound sign, mainly fluctuating following the black market trend [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - Yesterday, the main contract of manganese silicon SM2603 closed at 5,814 yuan/ton, a 0.48% increase compared to the opening of the day session. The main contract of ferrosilicon SF2603 closed at 5,610 yuan/ton, a 0.97% increase compared to the opening of the day session [1] 3.2 Important Information - In 2026, the People's Bank of China will continue to implement a moderately loose monetary policy, and there is still room for reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts this year [1] - This week, the approved production capacity utilization rate of 523 coking coal mine samples was 89.3%, a 0.9% increase month - on - month. The daily average output of raw coal was 1.994 million tons, a 17,000 - ton increase month - on - month, and the raw coal inventory was 5.605 million tons, a 106,000 - ton increase month - on - month [1] - About 20% of short - process steel enterprises in Guangdong will gradually stop production for holidays in mid - to - late January. More than 60% of short - process steel enterprises choose to gradually stop production for holidays in early February. Most steel enterprises will gradually resume production in early March [1] 3.3 Market Logic - The short - term double - silicon steel mills are gradually implemented with a decline. The overall fundamentals are weak recently. As the Spring Festival holiday in February approaches, the pre - holiday demand release expectation for silicon manganese will gradually decrease, and the bargaining sentiment in the silicon manganese market is rising. In the production areas, the previous production in the north has been put into operation and produced iron one after another. There is no obvious decline in the supply side's start - up recently, and the overall supply level remains at a relatively high position [1] 3.4 Trading Strategy - The short - term disk shows strong support below and has a slight rebound sign, mainly fluctuating following the black market trend [1]