Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) is expected to continue injecting medium-term liquidity through MLF and reverse repos in August, with potential rate cuts anticipated in early Q4 [1] Group 1 - The chief macro analyst at Dongfang Jincheng, Wang Qing, interprets that the PBOC will maintain liquidity support through MLF and reverse repos in August [1] - There is an expectation for further reserve requirement ratio (RRR) and interest rate cuts by the PBOC around early Q4 [1]

Core Viewpoint - The central bank is actively conducting reverse repurchase operations to maintain liquidity in the banking system, with a net injection of 300 billion yuan expected in August due to the maturity of previous operations and ongoing government bond issuance [1][2][3]. Group 1: Central Bank Operations - The central bank conducted a 500 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation with a 6-month term, indicating a proactive approach to ensure liquidity [1][2]. - This operation follows a pattern of increased reverse repurchase activities over the past three months, reflecting a commitment to maintaining ample liquidity in the market [1][2]. - The total amount of reverse repurchase operations in August is expected to exceed 300 billion yuan, as the central bank continues to respond to the high issuance of government bonds [2][3]. Group 2: Market Conditions - The maturity of a significant volume of certificates of deposit in August, exceeding 3 trillion yuan, is creating pressure for renewal, necessitating the central bank's intervention [3]. - The ongoing issuance of government bonds is expected to accelerate, as indicated by the recent political bureau meeting, which emphasizes the need to expedite government bond issuance [3][4]. - The overall market liquidity remains relatively loose, despite some tightening pressures anticipated in the medium term due to earlier credit demand being pulled forward [4][5]. Group 3: Future Expectations - Analysts predict that the central bank may implement further monetary easing measures, including potential rate cuts, to support economic recovery and maintain favorable financing conditions for the real economy [4][6]. - The central bank is likely to utilize various liquidity tools, including reverse repos and medium-term lending facilities, to create a conducive monetary environment in the second half of the year [6].

多国央行启动加息 中国银行研究院研究员梁斯表示，近期外部环境变化导致我国金融市场出现一定波动，但我国作为经济 大国货币政策操作坚持"以我为主"，重点服务国内经济发展大局。但对外部货币条件变化可能引发的风 险需及时关注，必要时积极运用货币政策工具引导市场预期，确保我国金融市场稳健运行。 "接下来监管层将会密切关注国内经济走势以及汇市和跨境资金流向，决定具体措施出台的时机和力 度。但从根本上说，不必高估美联储加快政策收紧步伐可能对国内货币政策形成的掣肘。"王青说。 我国货币政策立足"稳"相机"动" 当地时间5月4日，美国联邦储备委员会宣布上调联邦基金利率50个基点，同时宣布6月1日开始缩表。为 应对高通胀，多国央行最近启动加息，英格兰银行5日宣布加息25个基点。接受《经济参考报》记者采 访的多位业内人士表示，全球金融环境收紧不会从根本上影响国内货币政策走向。综合考虑内外部因 素，我国稳健货币政策持续发力的基调将持续强化，一方面，结构性货币工具将发挥更大作用，另一方 面，降准降息空间也有望再次打开。 多国央行加息应对通胀 美国联邦储备委员会日前如期宣布加息50个基点，将联邦基金利率目标区间上调到0.75%至1%之间 ...

【纠错】 【责任编辑:赵文涵】 中国人民银行行长潘功胜5月7日在国新办举行的新闻发布会上宣布，降准0.5个百分点，向市场提 供长期流动性约1万亿元，并降低政策利率0.1个百分点。（记者：吴雨 刘慧） ...

Core Viewpoint - The liquidity in the market for August is expected to remain stable and not continue the tightening process that began in late July, with the sustainability of rising market interest rates needing further observation [1][2]. Group 1: Market Liquidity - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) announced a 700 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation on August 8, with a term of 3 months (91 days), to maintain ample liquidity in the banking system [1]. - There are 4 trillion yuan of 3-month and 5 trillion yuan of 6-month reverse repos maturing in August, indicating that the PBOC may conduct another operation for the 6-month term within the month [1][2]. - An additional 300 billion yuan of Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF) is also expected to be rolled over, suggesting a proactive approach to liquidity management [1]. Group 2: Government Bonds and Monetary Policy - The central political bureau meeting on July 30 emphasized accelerating government bond issuance, which is expected to peak in August [1][2]. - The PBOC is likely to continue using MLF and reverse repos to inject medium-term liquidity, supporting the ongoing government bond issuance and reinforcing the signal for a quantitative monetary policy approach [2]. - The manufacturing PMI index fell back into contraction territory in July, indicating potential economic challenges, which may lead to further interest rate cuts in the fourth quarter [2].

记者 刘 琪 韩 昱 今日（5月17日），财政部公开招标发行400亿元人民币30年期特别国债，票面利率通过竞争性招标确 定，这期国债从招标结束至2024年5月20日进行分销，5月22日起上市交易。本期国债也正式拉开了本次 万亿元超长期特别国债发行的序幕。 今年《政府工作报告》提出，从今年开始拟连续几年发行超长期特别国债，专项用于国家重大战略实施 和重点领域安全能力建设，今年先发行1万亿元。根据财政部发布的2024年超长期特别国债发行有关安 排，今年拟发行超长期特别国债的期限分别为20年、30年、50年，付息方式均为按半年付息。 事实上，我国曾在1998年、2007年和2020年分别发行过三次特别国债，对经济社会稳定向好发展产生了 积极影响。那么，当前我国为何要发行超长期特别国债？本轮超长期特别国债"特别"之处在哪？货币政 策又将如何配合？《证券日报》记者就上述问题采访了多位业内专家。 "发行超长期特别国债既保增长，又促创新；既利当前，又惠长远；既可助力实体经济，又可推进国家 中长期战略布局。"中国商业经济学会副会长、华德榜创始人宋向清在接受《证券日报》记者采访时认 为，这次发行超长期特别国债具有战略性、综合性 ...

Core Viewpoint - The issuance of ultra-long-term special government bonds is expected to have limited impact on the liquidity and bond markets, while also supporting economic growth through fiscal policy measures [1][2][3]. Group 1: Impact on Liquidity - Analysts believe that the issuance of ultra-long-term special government bonds will have a limited effect on liquidity due to the long issuance cycle and gradual pace, which helps to reduce market volatility [2]. - The first issuance of the 30-year ultra-long-term special government bond on May 17 did not lead to significant fluctuations in the short-term policy interest rates, as evidenced by the DR007 remaining stable at 1.8421% [2]. Group 2: Impact on Bond Market - The issuance of ultra-long-term special government bonds is expected to alleviate the "asset shortage" in the bond market by increasing the supply of safe assets, thus balancing supply and demand [2]. - The gradual issuance schedule is anticipated to smooth out any potential supply pressure on the bond market, as the market had already anticipated the supply increase [2]. Group 3: Economic Implications - The issuance of these bonds signals a proactive fiscal policy aimed at supporting economic development, which may help alleviate local government financial pressures and support infrastructure growth [3][4]. - The introduction of ultra-long-term special government bonds is seen as a step towards promoting interest rate marketization and providing a reference for pricing long-term local government bonds [3]. Group 4: Monetary Policy Outlook - There remains potential for interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions, particularly in the second quarter, to support fiscal policy and provide banks with low-cost long-term funding [4][5]. - The central bank's recent actions, such as the equal volume renewal of MLF, indicate a cautious approach to managing liquidity without immediate rate cuts [5][6].

"就目前来看，本轮降准降息落地后，理财产品资产端利率在短期内未出现明显下降，反而有所回 升。实际上，今年市场上资产供给有所增加，理财公司'资产荒'的现象并未显著加剧，只能说是高收益 资产遭遇了激烈拼抢。"某股份行理财公司投研业务负责人告诉记者。 从短期来看，央行降准降息政策对理财产品资产端收益率的影响相对有限，近期长债利率震荡回 升，同业存单利率有所上行。但从长期来看，理财产品底层资产收益率下行趋势明确，理财公司的"资 产荒"局面难以改变。 在资产配置方面，不少理财公司投研人士表示，将优先布局同业存单、短期信用债等短债资产，以 锁定当前高利率。此外，在低利率环境下，为增厚收益，理财公司将优化投资组合，通过增加多元资产 配置，分散投资于不同的资产类别，降低对单一资产的依赖，以平衡风险和收益。 资产端收益率影响有限 从短期来看，央行降准降息政策对理财产品资产端收益率影响有限，上周存款降息、LPR下调等操 作落地，长债利率震荡回升。 "从2023年以来存款利率下降后的债券走势来看，1年期和10年期国债收益率的表现不一，存款降息 并不一定会带来债券收益率快速下行，更多需要考虑当时的基本面、政策环境和交易情绪。债券收益 ...

Group 1 - The central bank will conduct a 700 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation on August 8, with a term of 3 months, to maintain ample liquidity in the banking system [1] - There are 4 billion yuan of 3-month and 5 billion yuan of 6-month reverse repos maturing in August, indicating that the central bank may conduct another 6-month reverse repo operation within the month [1] - The backdrop for these operations includes a high issuance period for government bonds and a significant amount of maturing deposits, with regulatory emphasis on increasing monetary credit [1] Group 2 - In August, short-term market liquidity is expected to remain stable, while there may be some tightening pressure in the medium term [2] - The central bank is likely to continue injecting medium-term liquidity through MLF and reverse repos to support the ongoing government bond issuance [2] - The manufacturing PMI index has declined again, suggesting that the central bank may consider further rate cuts in the fourth quarter [2]

文/刘佳 据央行官网消息，8月7日央行发布公告，为保持银行体系流动性充裕，2025年8月8日，中国人民银行将以固定数 量、利率招标、多重价位中标方式开展7000亿元买断式逆回购操作，期限为3个月（91天）。 "在上半年宏观经济偏中偏强，三季度外部波动及经济增长动能变化有待进一步观察的背景下，短期内降准和恢复 国债买卖的概率不大，央行更可能通过MLF和买断式逆回购等政策工具保持市场流动性充裕。不过，7月制造业 PMI指数在收缩区间再度下行，结束了此前两个月的回升过程。这意味着近期经济下行压力有所加大。"王青对 《华夏时报》记者分析称，预计四季度央行有可能再度实施降准降息。 在业内分析人士看来，因8月分别有4000亿元3个月期和5000亿元6个月期买断式逆回购到期。8日央行开展7000亿 元3个月期逆回购，并不意味着本月买断式逆回购缩量，很可能意味着月内央行还将开展一次6月个月期逆回购操 作，预计当月两个期限品种的合计操作金额会在9000亿元到期量之上。另外，8月还有3000亿元MLF到期，预计 央行也会加量续作。 编辑：冯樱子 东方金诚首席分析师王青认为，整体上看，8月市场流动性不会延续7月下旬开始的持续收紧过 ...