Policy Changes - The meeting removed the phrase "combine the implementation of the strategy to expand domestic demand with deepening supply-side structural reform" and added "place greater emphasis on strengthening the domestic circulation" [2] - The monetary policy approach changed from "timely reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts" to "flexibly grasp the implementation intensity and rhythm of policies" [2] - The statement regarding exchange rates was modified, removing "strengthen market management and resolutely correct market pro-cyclical behavior" [2] Consistent Policy Stance - The central bank maintained the expression of "moderately loose monetary policy" while also emphasizing "smooth monetary policy transmission mechanisms and improve fund utilization efficiency" [5] - The focus on the scale of household deposits moving to non-bank institutions is critical for understanding the balance between monetary policy and preventing fund idling [6] Liquidity Injection Methods - Over the past 20 years, the central bank's liquidity injection methods have evolved from buying foreign exchange (2003-2013) to using re-lending and reverse repos (2014-2023), and now includes more comprehensive methods like buying government bonds and facilitating stock repurchases [7] - The current liquidity injection aims not only to support commercial banks' credit expansion but also to stabilize the liquidity in stock and bond markets [7]

Monetary Policy Outlook - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) signaled important adjustments in monetary policy and exchange rate management for the second half of the year, reflecting a more flexible approach in response to complex economic conditions [1][4] - The second quarter meeting emphasized maintaining an appropriately accommodative monetary policy while enhancing counter-cyclical adjustments and the dual function of monetary policy tools [5][6] Economic Growth Projections - Economic growth is projected at approximately 5.2% for the second quarter, with a target of around 4.7% for the second half to meet the annual growth goal, indicating manageable pressure under current policy measures [5] - Market analysts expect further policy adjustments, including potential reserve requirement ratio (RRR) cuts, to support liquidity and economic stability [6] Real Estate Market Stability - The meeting highlighted the need to implement existing financial policies effectively to stabilize the real estate market, focusing on revitalizing existing housing stock and land [9][10] - Data from January to May showed a year-on-year decline in new housing sales area and sales revenue by 2.9% and 3.8%, respectively, although some first- and second-tier cities experienced growth [9] Domestic Circulation Strategy - The PBOC emphasized strengthening domestic circulation as a strategic focus, coordinating supply and demand, and enhancing macro policy coordination to stimulate economic recovery [11] - Recent policies included lowering interest rates on housing provident fund loans and optimizing capital market support tools, with a total of 800 billion yuan allocated for securities and stock repurchase financing [11] Exchange Rate Management - The second quarter meeting shifted its focus from strict measures to enhancing the resilience of the foreign exchange market and stabilizing market expectations, aiming to maintain the yuan's stability at a reasonable level [12] - Historical data suggests the yuan may be entering a new appreciation cycle, which could help stabilize the global monetary system and support economic growth [12]

固 定 收 益 研 究 固定收益半年报 大浪难寻，细浪掘金 ――利率债 2025 年下半年投资策略报告 分析师： 王哲语 SAC NO： S1150524070001 2025 年 6 月 27 日 2025 年上半年市场回顾 资金价格：2025 年上半年，资金面先紧后松。一季度资金面偏紧且波幅较 大，与央行稳汇率防空转、银行负债压力加剧及政府债供给规模较高有关。 二季度资金价格趋降趋稳，主要源于，在关税冲击下，央行积极维稳资金 面，叠加 5 月降准降息直接带动资金价格下移。 一级市场：2025 年上半年，利率债供给加量，发行规模和净融资规模均远高 于 2024 年同期，其中，国债净融资规模接近 3.4 万亿元，约为 2024 年同期 的 2 倍。节奏上，国债发行主要在二季度提速；地方债则在一季度发行放 量，与国债发行节奏形成错位；政金债发行节奏较为平滑。 二级市场：2025 年上半年，利率先上后下，曲线走平。一季度利率出现较为 明显的上行调整，主要源于"宽货币"向"稳货币"甚至"紧货币"转变， 资金利空逐渐由短端向长端传导，带动曲线呈现熊平特征。二季度"关税交 易"是主线，4 月利率受关税避险和宽松预期升温 ...

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has implemented a moderately accommodative monetary policy in 2023, utilizing various tools to maintain ample liquidity and support economic recovery [1][2][5]. Group 1: Monetary Policy Tools - The PBOC has employed multiple monetary policy tools, including reserve requirement ratios, open market operations, Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF), and re-lending to ensure sufficient liquidity in the banking system [1][2]. - In the first half of the year, the PBOC conducted 7-day reverse repos and, when necessary, 14-day reverse repos to meet the needs of primary dealers, injecting a total of 2.6 trillion yuan across the Spring Festival period [2]. - The MLF operations totaled 23.5 trillion yuan in the first half of the year, with a fixed quantity and interest rate bidding system introduced in March [2][3]. Group 2: Liquidity Management - The PBOC has introduced a buyout-style reverse repo operation to fill the gap between 7-day reverse repos and 1-year MLF, enhancing liquidity management precision [3]. - As of now, the PBOC has conducted 47 trillion yuan in 3-month buyout reverse repos and 25 trillion yuan in 6-month buyout reverse repos this year [3]. - The PBOC has also utilized the Standing Lending Facility (SLF) to provide short-term liquidity support to local financial institutions, with a total of 240.82 billion yuan in SLF operations in the first five months [4]. Group 3: Future Expectations - Experts predict that the PBOC will continue to adopt a loose monetary policy in the second half of the year, with potential for further interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions [5][6]. - The anticipated interest rate cut could range from 10 to 30 basis points, while reserve requirement ratio cuts may be between 25 to 50 basis points [5]. - There is a possibility of resuming government bond trading operations in the second half of the year, depending on market conditions [6][7].

Group 1: Money Market Overview - The average daily trading volume in the money market increased, with a total transaction volume of 136.5 trillion yuan in May, reflecting a 4.6% decrease month-on-month, while the average daily transaction rose by 10.4% to 7.2 trillion yuan [2] - The overall liquidity in the market remained balanced and loose, with the central bank implementing a 10 basis point interest rate cut and a 0.5 percentage point reserve requirement ratio reduction, releasing 1 trillion yuan in funds [3] - The average daily balance in the money market increased to 11.7 trillion yuan, up 1.2% month-on-month, while the average net lending balance of large commercial banks rose by 20.4% [4] Group 2: Bond Market Dynamics - The issuance of bonds decreased to 4.48 trillion yuan in May, down 9.8% month-on-month but up 18.8% year-on-year, with net financing increasing by 68% to 2.11 trillion yuan [6] - The trading volume of bonds increased, with a total of 30 trillion yuan traded in May, reflecting a 6.7% month-on-month increase and a 5.5% year-on-year increase [8] - Bond yields experienced fluctuations, with the 10-year government bond yield ranging between 1.63% and 1.73%, indicating a steepening yield curve [10] Group 3: Interest Rate Swaps - The interest rate swap curve shifted upward overall, with slight increases in the swap prices for various maturities [11] - The average daily transaction volume for interest rate swaps saw a minor increase, with a total nominal principal amount of 3.2 trillion yuan traded in May [11]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In May 2025, the total bond custody scale increased by 216.33 billion yuan month-on-month, 55.57 billion yuan more than in April, mainly due to the significant rise in the net financing scale of treasury bonds and policy financial bonds. The custody increments of local bonds, interbank certificates of deposit (CDs), and credit bonds decreased slightly month-on-month [3][6]. - The profit-taking sentiment after the reserve requirement ratio (RRR) cut and interest rate cut in May and the increase in government bond supply pressure were important factors affecting institutional behavior. Non-bank institutions' profit-taking sentiment heated up, and commercial banks had to take on more primary supply, increasing their liability pressure, which requires the central bank to maintain a loose liquidity environment [3][8]. - The bond market leverage ratio in May was about 107.1%, basically the same as in April and still significantly lower than before January this year. The leverage ratio of commercial banks increased slightly, while that of non-bank institutions decreased and remained near a three-year low [3][37]. Summary by Directory 1. Interest Rate Bonds' Net Financing Soared while Credit Bonds and CDs Slightly Declined, and the Bond Custody Increment Rose Significantly in May - The total bond custody scale increased by 216.33 billion yuan month-on-month in May, 55.57 billion yuan more than in April, mainly due to the significant rise in the net financing scale of treasury bonds and policy financial bonds. The custody increments of local bonds, interbank CDs, and credit bonds decreased slightly month-on-month [3][6]. - Specifically, for interest rate bonds, the treasury bond custody increment rose by 64.2 billion yuan to 90.8 billion yuan; the local bond custody increment decreased by 18.46 billion yuan to 52.23 billion yuan; the policy financial bond custody increment rose by 26.9 billion yuan to 28.21 billion yuan. For credit bonds, the medium-term note (MTN) custody increment decreased by 3.63 billion yuan to 7.37 billion yuan, and the short-term financing bill (STFB) custody volume changed from an increase of 3.36 billion yuan in the previous month to a decrease of 4.31 billion yuan. The custody scales of enterprise bonds and private placement notes (PPNs) continued to decline, but the decline narrowed [6]. 2. Non-bank Profit-taking Sentiment Heated up in May, and the Supply Pressure Increased, Leading to a Significant Increase in Banks' Bond Purchases and Higher Liability Pressure - **General Funds**: The custody increment decreased by 34.3 billion yuan to 81.26 billion yuan. They reduced their purchases of CDs and treasury bonds, sold STFBs and policy financial bonds, but increased their purchases of MTNs and local bonds. Relative to the stock, they reduced their allocation of bonds, especially CDs, and switched to reducing their allocation of treasury bonds and policy financial bonds [11]. - **Securities Companies**: The bond custody volume changed from an increase of 1.124 billion yuan in the previous month to a decrease of 1.261 billion yuan. They sold treasury bonds and policy financial bonds and reduced their sales of CDs. Relative to the stock, they also reduced their allocation of bonds [16]. - **Insurance Companies**: The bond custody volume changed from an increase of 99 million yuan in the previous month to a decrease of 120 million yuan. They sold local bonds, but reduced their sales of financial bonds on the Shanghai Clearing House and increased their purchases of treasury bonds. Relative to the stock, they reduced their allocation of local bonds [19]. - **Overseas Institutions**: The bond custody volume changed from an increase of 9.54 billion yuan in the previous month to a decrease of 9.63 billion yuan. They sold CDs, policy financial bonds, and commercial bank bonds and significantly reduced their purchases of treasury bonds. Relative to the stock, they reduced their allocation of bonds [23]. - **Other Institutions**: The decline in bond custody volume narrowed from 74.29 billion yuan in the previous month to 19.27 billion yuan. They reduced their sales of local bonds and treasury bonds, but sold policy financial bonds and reduced their purchases of CDs. The narrowing of the decline was mainly due to the decrease in the net reverse repurchase volume of the central bank [25]. - **Commercial Banks**: The bond custody increment increased by 90.74 billion yuan to 167.8 billion yuan, reaching a new high since July 2022. They increased their purchases of treasury bonds to a record high, switched to buying policy financial bonds, and reduced their sales of CDs. However, the custody increment of local bonds decreased significantly due to the narrowing of the net reverse repurchase volume. Relative to the stock, they increased their allocation of bonds, mainly interest rate bonds [28]. - **Credit Unions**: The bond custody increment increased by 539 million yuan to 544 million yuan. They switched to buying treasury bonds and policy financial bonds, but slightly reduced their purchases of local bonds, CDs, and financial bonds on the Shanghai Clearing House. Relative to the stock, they increased their allocation of bonds, mainly treasury bonds and local bonds [32][35]. 3. Non-bank Leverage Ratio Declined Again in May and Remained Near a Three-year Low - The bond market leverage ratio in May was about 107.1%, basically the same as in April and still significantly lower than before January this year. The leverage ratio of commercial banks increased by 0.2 percentage points to 103.3%, but was still lower than before 2025. The leverage ratio of non-bank institutions decreased by 0.4 percentage points to 116.4% and remained near a three-year low [37]. - Among non-bank institutions, the leverage ratio of securities companies decreased by 6.7 percentage points to 207.4%, and that of insurance and non-legal person products decreased by 0.2 percentage points to 113.2%, both remaining near recent lows. In the general funds, the repurchase balance of money market funds increased significantly, while that of non-money products of fund companies increased limitedly, and their absolute levels were still low. The repurchase balances of insurance companies and other products slightly declined from high levels, and that of wealth management products continued to decline slightly near a historical low [37].

Core Viewpoint - The overall economic growth in May remains stable, but the structure shows signs of divergence, with retail growth accelerating due to external factors, while fixed asset investment and real estate sales continue to weaken [1][8]. Macro - External factors support retail growth, with tariff reductions not fully reflected in May data, leading to a slight decline in industrial value-added growth to 5.8% year-on-year [2][8]. - May's industrial value-added growth slowed to 5.8% from 6.1% in April, with manufacturing and high-tech manufacturing also experiencing declines [2]. - Retail sales in May increased by 6.4% year-on-year, the highest growth rate in 2024, driven by trade-in policies and early promotions [3][8]. - Fixed asset investment growth slowed to 3.7% in the first five months, with declines in manufacturing, infrastructure, and real estate investments [4][5]. - Real estate sales continue to weaken, with a 3.3% year-on-year decline in sales area and a 6.0% decline in sales value in May [6][24]. Strategy - The economic data for May indicates a need for further policy support to stimulate demand, with a focus on stable recovery in the second half of the year [8][20]. - Investment strategies should focus on sectors with strong dividend yields and growth potential, particularly in mergers and acquisitions, artificial intelligence, and consumer sectors [8]. Real Estate - The real estate market shows continued weakness, with new housing sales declining and investment pressures persisting [24][25]. - The government is expected to enhance policy measures to stabilize the real estate market and stimulate demand [24][25].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Since May, the bond market has been in a volatile pattern. Despite the implementation of reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts, concerns about bank liabilities have increased, and the Sino-US trade agreement has also put some pressure on long-term bonds. However, the central bank's intention to stabilize funds is clear, and the expectation of restarting bond purchases is rising. In June, the interest rate curve is expected to steepen downward [2]. - Although there are still fluctuations in funds after the reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts, the process of funds rates returning to policy rates continues. In early June, funds have loosened as expected. The central bank's disclosure of the scale and time of outright repurchase is conducive to reducing unnecessary market fluctuations and releasing a signal of stabilizing the funds market. The market believes that the 1 trillion outright reverse repurchase on June 6 also aims to supplement the medium - and long - term liquidity of banks. Whether this is the case depends on whether the central bank conducts another tender within the month. Even without such operations, the bank's liability pressure is expected to ease in June [2]. - Although DR007 was still above 1.5% last week, the overnight rate has dropped to the range of 1.4% - 1.5%. The widening spread between the two may be related to the increase in bank lending. The overnight rate is expected to drop to around 1.4% in June. The inflection point of the certificate of deposit (CD) rate may have appeared and is expected to continue to decline. - The central bank's disclosure of the liquidity injection situation of various tools in May has limited help in judging the subsequent funds situation. The decline in the central bank's claims on the government from January to April may be due to the maturity of short - term bonds without renewal or the closing of short - term bond short - selling positions. Although the central bank's bond - buying cannot be used as a baseline expectation, it is difficult to disprove in the short term, and the decline in short - term interest rates may not be over [2][3]. - Recent high - frequency data shows that the economy has not improved significantly. The sales area of new and second - hand houses has declined, and the prices of black commodities remain weak. The export growth rate in May dropped to 4.8%. Considering the potential increase in domestic fundamental pressure after the peak season, the overall environment for the bond market is still favorable. The short - end decline will also create space for the long - end. In the short term, the curve may continue the bull - steepening trend. It is recommended to maintain a combination of 3 - year policy financial bonds and 10 - year interest - rate bonds and appropriately increase the leverage to hold 3 - 5 - year credit bonds [3]. Summary by Directory I. The central bank sends a signal to stabilize the market. The overnight rate is expected to remain low, and the inflection point of the CD rate may have appeared - Since March, the process of funds rates returning to policy rates has continued. In early June, funds loosened as expected. The central bank's disclosure of the scale and time of outright repurchase can reduce unnecessary market fluctuations and release a signal of stabilizing the funds market [7]. - The 1 trillion outright reverse repurchase on June 6 supplements the medium - term liquidity of banks and is considered beneficial to alleviating the bank's liability pressure. However, considering that 1.2 trillion of outright reverse repurchases will mature in June, whether the central bank has the intention to further supplement liquidity depends on whether it conducts another tender within the month. Even without such operations, the bank's liability pressure is expected to ease in June due to weak credit demand and a marginal decline in government bond supply [10]. - In the first week of June, DR007 remained above 1.5%, while the overnight rate dropped to the range of 1.4% - 1.5%. The central bank seems to pay more attention to controlling the overnight rate, and the overnight rate is expected to drop to around 1.4% in June. With the overnight rate remaining low, the demand for CDs from non - bank institutions has been significantly released, and the CD rate is expected to continue to approach 1.6% [12][15][17]. II. The central bank's bond - buying cannot be used as a baseline expectation, but it is difficult to disprove and still benefits the medium - and short - term bonds - The central bank's disclosure of the "Liquidity Injection and Withdrawal of Central Bank Tools in May 2025" is considered an attempt to increase policy transparency. However, since June 2024, the deviation between the central bank's claims on other depository corporations and high - frequency operations has increased significantly, and the relatively small changes in structural tools in May are difficult to explain this deviation. The relationship between excess reserves and bank lending has also weakened, so the disclosure of monthly information on central bank tools has limited help in judging the subsequent funds situation [21][24]. - The disclosure of the scale of outright bond purchases and sales in the open market may not include maturity and roll - over. The decline in the central bank's claims on the government from January to April may be due to the maturity of short - term bonds without renewal or the closing of short - term bond short - selling positions. Which reason is more likely needs to be observed from whether the relevant accounts continue to decline in May [26][28]. - Although the increase in the net purchase of treasury bonds with a maturity of less than 3 years by large - scale banks last week has led to an increase in the expectation of the central bank restarting bond purchases, it may also be the banks' own operations. The central bank's bond - buying in June cannot be used as a baseline expectation, but this expectation is difficult to disprove in the short term and is still beneficial to medium - and short - term bonds [30]. III. High - frequency data remains weak, and the curve is expected to continue to steepen in June - In May, the manufacturing PMI increased from 49% to 49.5%, slightly stronger than the seasonal pattern, which may be boosted by export - rush factors. However, overall, the recovery speed of production activities is still higher than that of demand, and the new export orders and new order indexes are still below the boom - bust line. The situation of enterprises reducing inventory through price cuts has not changed significantly [32]. - Domestic high - frequency data shows that the economy has not improved significantly. The marginal improvement in new - house sales in May was mainly concentrated in first - tier cities, and the data has weakened recently. The second - hand housing market has also cooled down. Indicators such as the apparent demand for rebar and the cement shipping rate are still at low levels in recent years. Although the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index has risen significantly since late May, the increase in port container volume is not significant. Considering the potential increase in domestic fundamental pressure after the peak season, the overall environment for the bond market is still favorable. The short - end decline will create space for the long - end, and the curve is expected to continue to steepen in June. It is recommended to maintain a combination of 3 - year policy financial bonds and 10 - year interest - rate bonds and appropriately increase the leverage to hold 3 - 5 - year credit bonds [35][48].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 国债期货早报- 2025年6月9日 大越期货投资咨询部 杜淑芳 从业资格证号：F0230499 投资咨询证号：Z0000990 联系方式：0575-85229759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或 阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 期债 行情回顾 行情回顾 30年期、10年期、5年期与2年期主力合约行情要素表 | 期货合约 | 现价 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量 | 持仓量 | 日增仓 | CTD券 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | T2509 | 108.925 | +0.17% | 8.87万 | 293116 | 4332 | 240013.IB | | TF2509 | 106.140 | +0.08% | 7.90万 | 240303 | 2851 | 240001.IB | | TS2509 | 102.452 | +0.02% | 5.55万 | 188500 | -14 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent interest rate cuts by the central bank are aimed at stabilizing growth and market expectations, with significant implications for the banking sector and liquidity management [1][2]. Group 1: Monetary Policy Changes - On May 7, the central bank announced a 50 basis point reduction in the reserve requirement ratio, releasing approximately 1 trillion yuan of long-term low-cost funds [1]. - The central bank also lowered the policy interest rate by 10 basis points, with the 7-day reverse repo rate decreasing from 1.5% to 1.4%, and the 1-year LPR adjusted from 3.1% to 3% [1]. - State-owned banks collectively reduced deposit rates, with the 1-year fixed deposit rate lowered by 15 basis points to around 1.5% [1]. Group 2: Market Reactions and Trends - Following the "double cut," the overall funding environment remained loose, with overnight rates declining from a range of 1.55%-1.65% to 1.45%-1.55% [2]. - The 1-year deposit rates for state-owned banks fell from approximately 1.75% to around 1.65%, but concerns over upcoming maturity pressures led to a rebound in rates above 1.7% [2]. Group 3: Factors Affecting Liquidity and Stability - The short-term funding and deposit rates did not align quickly with the policy rates due to the central bank's cautious liquidity management and potential credit weakness in May [3]. - Banks are focusing on managing liability duration to mitigate interest rate risks, leading to a decrease in overall stability of bank liabilities [3]. - A record high of 4.1 trillion yuan in interbank certificates of deposit is set to mature in June, prompting banks to absorb deposits in May to alleviate pressure [3].