Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **PX**: Short - term is relatively strong, but the medium - term trend is weak. PXN valuation is at a low level, and it is advisable to go long on dips. Future supply and demand will both increase, overseas device operating rates are falling, and PX processing fees have shrunk significantly [6][7]. - **PTA**: Short - term rebound is strong, but the medium - term is still weak. It is recommended to short on rallies unilaterally. Do basis and calendar spread reverse arbitrage. Take profit on the strategy of going long on PTA and short on MEG. Conduct a hedging operation of going long on PR and short on PTA [8]. - **MEG**: The impact of tariffs on ethane cracking plants is gradually emerging. Go long on MEG and short on PTA for the 09 contract, and do 9 - 1 calendar spread positive arbitrage. The short - term is a rebound, and the medium - term trend is weak [9]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs **Fundamental Tracking** - **Price and Change**: On April 17, 2025, the PX main contract closed at 6034, up 1.8% daily; PTA closed at 4294, up 1.7%; MEG closed at 4113, unchanged; PF closed at 5946, up 1.0%; SC closed at 3441, up 3.4% [2]. - **Calendar Spread**: For PX (5 - 9), the value on April 17 was - 70; for PTA (5 - 9), it was - 28; for MEG (5 - 9), it was - 47; for PF(5 - 6), it was - 44; for PX - EB05, it was - 1403. The daily change of MEG (5 - 9) was - 13, and that of PF(5 - 6) was 18, and PX - EB05 was 25 [2]. - **Inter - variety Spread**: On April 17, PTA05 - 0.65PX05 was 360, PTA05 - MEG05 was 153, PTA05 - PF05 was - 1636, PF05's processing margin on the disk was 877, and PTA05 - LU05 was 739. The daily changes were 3, 71, - 4, 14, and - 105 respectively [2]. - **Basis and Other Spreads**: On April 17, the PX basis was 118, PTA basis was - 8, MEG basis was 56, PF basis was 164, and the PX - naphtha spread was 172. The daily changes were 39, 12, - 12, 22, and 3 respectively. The PTA warehouse receipts decreased by 1,963, and SC warehouse receipts decreased by 40,000 [2]. **Market Overview** - **PX**: On April 18, the PX price in the Chinese market was estimated at 738 - 740 USD/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day; in the South Korean market, it was 718 - 720 USD/ton, also unchanged. South Korea's PX exports in March decreased by 1.75% month - on - month to 370,742 tons. Exports to China decreased by about 2.23% to 295,948 tons, and to Unv1 decreased by 25% to 34,282 tons. However, exports to the US increased by about 39% to 40,512 tons [4]. - **PTA**: On April 18, PTA futures fluctuated and closed higher. The spot market negotiation atmosphere weakened, the spot basis loosened slightly. The 4 - month goods were traded at 05 + 20~25, with the price negotiation range around 4290 - 4330. The mainstream spot basis on the 18th was 05 + 22 [5]. - **MEG**: The ethylene glycol load of a 100 - million - ton/year EO - EG co - production unit in East China decreased by about 20% recently and is expected to last for a long time. The restart time of a 36 - million - ton/year ethylene glycol unit in the US is still undetermined. On April 17, the MEG shipment from a mainstream warehouse in Zhangjiagang was about 6800 tons, and from two mainstream warehouses in Taicang was about 7400 tons [5]. - **Polyester**: A 25 - million - ton polyester film device in Zhejiang was put into production in mid - February, and the supporting film device was put into production in early April. A 30 - million - ton polyester bottle - chip device in the Southwest was restarted recently [5]. - **Polyester Yarn Sales**: On April 18, the sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang increased locally, with an average sales rate of about 90% by 4 pm. The sales rate of direct - spun polyester staple fiber factories decreased moderately, with an average sales rate of 80% by 3 pm [6].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - The methanol market lacks obvious drivers from both supply and demand sides in April. The overall situation is that it is difficult to find bullish factors. It is recommended to take a wait - and - see approach for unilateral strategies [1] 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures and Spot Prices and Basis - **Methanol Futures Prices**: MA01 closed at 2309 yuan/ton on April 17, down 22 yuan/ton (-0.94%) from the previous day; MA05 closed at 2333 yuan/ton, down 36 yuan/ton (-1.52%); MA09 closed at 2238 yuan/ton, down 24 yuan/ton (-1.06%) [1] - **Methanol Spot Prices**: The daily average price in Taicang was 2425 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton (-1.22%); in Shandong, it was 2565 yuan/ton, down 2.5 yuan/ton (-0.10%); in Guangdong, it remained unchanged at 2475 yuan/ton; in Shaanxi, it was 2255 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton (-0.22%); in Sichuan - Chongqing, it was 2310 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan/ton (0.65%); in Hubei, it remained unchanged at 2465 yuan/ton; in Inner Mongolia, it was 2262.5 yuan/ton, down 2.5 yuan/ton (-0.11%) [1] - **Basis**: The basis of Taicang spot - MA was 116 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan/ton from the previous day [1] 3.2 Raw Material Prices - **Coal Spot Prices**: The price of Ordos Q5500 and Datong Q5500 remained unchanged at 472.5 yuan/ton and 542.5 yuan/ton respectively. The price of Yulin Q6000 was 537.5 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton (-0.92%) [1] - **Industrial Natural Gas Prices**: The prices in Hohhot and Chongqing remained unchanged at 3.94 yuan/cubic meter and 3.30 yuan/cubic meter respectively [1] 3.3 Profit Situation - **Methanol Production Profit**: The profit of coal - based methanol was 653 yuan/ton, up 6.3 yuan/ton (0.97%); the profit of natural - gas - based methanol remained unchanged at - 410 yuan/ton [1] - **Downstream Profit**: The profit of Northwest MTO was - 189.8 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton (-5.56%); the profit of East China MTO was - 822.57 yuan/ton, up 77.5 yuan/ton (8.61%); the profit of acetic acid was 570.37 yuan/ton, up 16.5 yuan/ton (2.98%); the profit of MTBE was 276.56 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton (-15.31%); the profit of formaldehyde remained unchanged at - 273.2 yuan/ton [1] 3.4 Important Information - **Domestic Futures**: The main methanol contract MA2509 continued to be weak, opening at 2270 yuan/ton, closing at 2238 yuan/ton, down 37 yuan/ton, with a trading volume of 659,451 lots and an open interest of 668,645 lots [1] - **Foreign Information**: The reference negotiation price of non - Iranian methanol shipments arriving in the far - month is 258 - 268 US dollars/ton. Some non - Iranian shipments arriving at the end of May were traded at 258 US dollars/ton (5000 tons). The reference negotiation price of non - Iranian shipments arriving in the far - month is +1 - 1.5%. In other Middle Eastern regions, a small number of far - month shipments were traded at +0.5% [1]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating in the report Group 2: Core View of the Report - Copper inventory is continuously increasing, which restricts the price rebound [1] - The trend strength of copper is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [3] Group 3: Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Price and Volume**: The closing price of the Shanghai Copper main contract was 75,870 with a daily decline of 0.58%, and the night - session closing price was 75,830 with a decline of 0.05%. The closing price of the LME Copper 3M electronic disk was 9,137 with a decline of 0.91%. The trading volume of the Shanghai Copper main contract was 87,809, a decrease of 22,039 from the previous day, and the position was 150,069, a decrease of 2,954. The trading volume of the LME Copper 3M electronic disk was 8,366, an increase of 742, and the position was 293,000, an increase of 2,002 [1] - **Futures Inventory**: The inventory of Shanghai Copper was 92,209, an increase of 2,840 from the previous day. The inventory of LME Copper was 212,475, an increase of 4,650, and the注销仓单 ratio was 43.82%, a decrease of 0.25% [1] - **Price Spreads**: The LME copper spread decreased by 14.73 to - 44.74. The spread between spot and the near - month futures contract increased by 40 to 40. The spread between the near - month contract and the next - month contract decreased by 100 to - 40 [1] 2. Macro and Industry News - **Macro News**: The US launched an investigation into the national security risks posed by key minerals and their derivatives that rely on imported processing. Canada will suspend tariffs on some US goods for 6 months and conditionally exempt some counter - measures against imported US cars. Mexico strengthened inspections, and fuel imports from the US Texas border were halted. The EU expects US tariffs to continue [1] - **Micro News**: Panama's government announced that Canada's First Quantum Minerals has withdrawn an international arbitration request against the country. In March 2025, China's imports of copper ore and concentrates were 239.4 million tons, and the cumulative imports from January to March were 710.8 million tons, a 1.8% increase from the previous year. Canada's Hudbay Minerals reached an agreement with seven industry unions to support the construction of the Copper World copper mine in Arizona, with an annual copper production capacity of 8.5 million tons and an expected mining life of 20 years [3]

焦炭：首轮提涨落地，宽幅震荡 焦煤：宽幅震荡 刘豫武 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021518 liuyuwu025832@gtjas.com 【基本面跟踪】 2025 年 4 月 16 日 【价格及持仓情况】 1、北方港口焦煤报价：京唐港山西主焦煤库提价 1400 元/吨，青岛港外贸澳洲主焦煤库提价 1315 元/吨， 连云港澳洲主焦煤库提价 1315 元/吨，日照港澳洲主焦煤港口库提价 1200 元/吨，天津港澳洲主焦煤港口 库提价 1305 元/吨（中国煤炭资源网）。 2、4 月 15 日汾渭 CCI 冶金煤指数：S1.3 G75 主焦（山西煤）介休 1145（-）；S1.3 G75 主焦（蒙 5）沙河 驿 1053（-）；S1.3 G75 主焦（蒙 3）沙河驿 1039（-） 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 期货研究 焦煤焦炭基本面数据 | 昨日收盘价(元/吨) | | JM2505 | 908 | 涨跌(元/吨) 2.5 | 涨跌幅 0. 28% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 1567 | | J2505 | ...

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Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoints of the Report - Industrial silicon prices are expected to continue low-level consolidation in the short term, with an operating range of 9,000 - 10,500 yuan/ton, and follow-up attention should be paid to the production dynamics of silicon enterprises [1] - The price of polysilicon may decline in the future, and the previous long positions can be gradually closed at high prices. The inter - delivery strategy can consider the 06 - 11 positive spread and 11 - 12 negative spread [1] Summary According to Related Content Industrial Silicon - **Price Changes**: The average price of non - oxygenated 553 (East China) industrial silicon remained flat at 9,950 yuan/ton compared to the previous day, and the average price of 421 (East China) industrial silicon also remained flat at 10,900 yuan/ton. The closing price of the futures main contract decreased by 1.53% to 9,310 yuan/ton [1] - **Supply and Demand**: In terms of supply, furnace starts in Xinjiang decreased, while there were new furnace starts in Sichuan. It is expected that some silicon enterprises in Yunnan will have new capacity put into operation in April, showing a pattern of increasing supply in the south and decreasing in the north. On the demand side, there is no obvious improvement, and the high inventory pressure in the silicon market remains [1] - **Investment Strategy**: Due to the reduction in supply after the production cut of some large northern factories, but the lack of improvement in demand, the short - term silicon price is expected to continue low - level consolidation, and the follow - up should focus on the production dynamics of silicon enterprises [1] Polysilicon - **Price Changes**: N - type dense material remained flat at 40 yuan/kg compared to the previous day; polysilicon re - feeding material price remained flat at 36 yuan/kg; polysilicon dense material remained flat at 34.5 yuan/kg. The closing price of the futures main contract decreased by 0.68% to 41,550 yuan/ton [1] - **Supply and Demand**: On the supply side, polysilicon enterprises maintained a production - cut situation, and it is expected that the output in April will still be within 100,000 tons. On the demand side, as the 430 rush - installation node approaches, the demand for distributed component orders has cooled down, but the demand for centralized orders has started to increase [1] - **Investment Strategy**: Considering that the self - disciplined production cut and the rush - installation tide still support the polysilicon price, but the follow - up demand may weaken, the price center may move down. Previous long positions can be gradually closed at high prices, and the inter - delivery strategy can consider the 06 - 11 positive spread and 11 - 12 negative spread [1] Other Products - **DMC**: The domestic DMC market has poor trading recently. Due to high inventory, the mainstream trading center of DMC has moved down to 13,500 yuan/ton, and the price is expected to decline slightly in the future [1] - **Photovoltaic Cells**: Photovoltaic cell prices have started to decline, with different sizes showing different market trends. The price of Topcon210RN batteries has dropped significantly, with a decline of over 12% [1]

瑞达期货研究院 「 2025.04.11 」 纯碱玻璃市场周报 研究员:王福辉 期货从业资格号F03123381 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0019878 取 更 多 资 讯 关 注 我 们 获 业 务 咨 询 添 加 客 服 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业链分析 「 周度要点小结」 3 u 行情回顾：本周纯碱期货收跌3.91%，受对等关税宏观消息影响，纯碱价格一路下行，后空头情绪消退， 价格反弹，纯碱5-9基差走弱，玻璃期货本周主力合约下跌4.34%，整体波动幅度较大，主要原因是下游 需求较弱导致，同时没有政策对冲关税影响。纯碱-玻璃基差走弱，上游利润向下游转移正在进行。从持 仓数量来看，目前整体进入移仓换月，但净空头依旧持续，情绪依旧较为悲观。 u 行情展望：纯碱期货方面，由于近期基本面边际改善，供应下降对期价有较强支撑。考虑到 05 合约即 将交割，部分社会库存已提前锁定到期货盘面，近期纯碱现货流通货源减少，在乐观情绪推动下，纯碱 期价仍有上冲可能，上行高度取决于检修规模、下游补库力度和进出口情况。但当纯碱进入高价区间后， 成交可能变差，且目前玻璃厂纯碱库存较高，需观察后续现货价格跟进情况，操作 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The industrial silicon market is expected to continue its low - level consolidation in the short term, with prices ranging from 9,000 to 10,500 yuan/ton. The price center of polysilicon may shift downward [1]. - For industrial silicon, although the supply has decreased after some capacity reduction in northern large - scale plants, the demand has not improved significantly, and the high inventory pressure in the silicon market remains. For polysilicon, the self - disciplined production cuts and the rush - installation tide still support the price, but the subsequent demand may weaken [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Price Information - **Industrial Silicon Spot Prices**: The average price of non - oxygen - blown 553 (East China) remained unchanged at 9,950 yuan/ton; the average price of 421 (East China) remained unchanged at 10,900 yuan/ton. The average prices of other regions also remained stable [1]. - **Industrial Silicon Futures Price**: The closing price of the futures main contract rose 0.47% to 9,555 yuan/ton [1]. - **Polysilicon Spot Prices**: N - type dense material remained at 40 yuan/kg; polysilicon re - feeding material remained at 36 yuan/kg; polysilicon dense material remained at 34.5 yuan/kg; polysilicon cauliflower material remained at 33.5 yuan/kg [1]. - **Polysilicon Futures Price**: The closing price of the futures main contract fell 0.13% to 42,190 yuan/ton [1]. Company News - **Daquan Energy**: The current industry inventory is about 400,000 tons. The company's inventory is less than two - month production. In Q4 2024, the company's polysilicon production was 34,000 tons and sales were 42,000 tons; the annual production was 205,000 tons and sales were 181,000 tons. It is expected that the Q1 2025 production will be 25,000 - 28,000 tons, and the annual production guidance is 110,000 - 140,000 tons [1]. - **GCL Technology**: In Q1, the EBITDA of the photovoltaic materials business reached 505 million yuan. The average cash cost of granular silicon in Q1 decreased from 27.14 yuan/kg in January - February to 27.07 yuan/kg [1]. Investment Strategies - **Industrial Silicon**: Due to the limited change in overall supply and the decline in demand, the silicon price is expected to remain low in the short term. Continuously monitor the production dynamics of silicon enterprises [1]. - **Polysilicon**: Move the stop - profit point of long positions down to around 43,500 yuan/ton. Long positions established earlier can take profits on rallies. Consider the 06 - 11 positive spread and 11 - 12 negative spread for inter - period strategies [1].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Views - For lead, the fundamentals show that primary lead smelters have basically resumed production with increased output in March, but there may be a decline in April in Henan due to maintenance. The recycled lead market faces a shortage of waste batteries, and the overall price is still firm. The demand side is in the off - season, with limited support for lead prices. However, due to the US tariff policy change, lead prices may rebound, and short - term unilateral operations are recommended [1]. - For zinc, the fundamentals indicate that smelters have sufficient raw material reserves, and the zinc concentrate processing fee is rising, leading to an obvious upward trend in production. The demand side has different performances in different sectors. Recently, non - ferrous metals mainly follow macro - sentiment fluctuations. After the change in the US tariff policy, zinc prices may have a small rebound, and continuous attention should be paid to macro - sentiment changes [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Lead Market Data - SMM1 lead ingot average price was 16,450 yuan/ton, down 1.05%. The futures主力合约收盘价 was 16,410 yuan/ton, down 0.79%. The LME3 - month lead futures收盘价 (electronic disk) was 1,865 dollars/ton, down 0.21%. The沪伦铅价比值 was 8.80, down 0.57% [1]. - The沪铅基差 was 40 yuan/ton, down 45 yuan. The升贴水 - LME 0 - 3 was - 28.66 dollars/ton, down 0.10 dollars. The沪铅近月 - 沪铅连一 was - 45 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan [1]. - The期货活跃合约成交量 was 54,274 hands, up 10.24%. The期货活跃合约持仓量 was 41,816 hands, down 2.12%. The成交持仓 ratio was 1.30, up 12.62%. The LME inventory was 235,600 tons, unchanged. The沪铅仓单库存 was 60,841 tons, down 1.37% [1]. 3.2 Zinc Market Data - SMM1 zinc ingot average price was 22,130 yuan/ton, down 1.51%. The期货主力合约收盘价 was 21,930 yuan/ton, down 1.64%. The LME3 - month zinc futures收盘价 (electronic disk) was 2,620 dollars/ton, up 2.22%. The沪伦锌价比值 was 8.37, down 3.78% [1]. - The沪锌基差 was 200 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan. The升贴水 - LME 0 - 3 was - 3.00 dollars/ton, up 8.61 dollars. The沪锌近月 - 沪锌连一 was 290 yuan/ton, up 225 yuan [1]. - The期货活跃合约成交量 was 235,271 hands, down 9.67%. The期货活跃合约持仓量 was 75,249 hands, down 5.55%. The成交持仓 ratio was 3.13, down 4.37%. The LME inventory was 123,150 tons, unchanged. The沪锌仓单库存 was 7,606 tons, down 12.13% [1]. 3.3 Lead - related News - A newly - built large - scale recycled lead smelter in East China may start production between August and September this year as some equipment is still to be installed [1]. - On April 8, the [LME0 - 3 lead] was at a discount of 29.16 dollars/ton, and the position was 153,812 hands, down 1,305 hands [1]. 3.4 Zinc - related News - Ivanhoe Mines announced that in Q1 2025, the Kipushi concentrator processed a record 151,000 tons of ore with an average feed grade of 32.5%, producing 43,000 tons of zinc in concentrate with a zinc grade of over 53%. The concentrator will continue to increase production in Q2 and is expected to complete the expansion plan by the end of Q3 2025 to reach an annual zinc production of 250,000 tons [1]. - On April 8, the [LME0 - 3 zinc] was at a discount of 12.15 dollars/ton, and the position was 218,013 hands, down 7,601 hands [1].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View The short - fiber and bottle - chip industries are both facing cost collapse and are operating weakly [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Short - fiber** - Futures prices of short - fiber contracts 2505, 2506, and 2507 decreased by 222, 246, and 588 respectively compared to the previous day. The price differences PF05 - 06, PF06 - 07, and PF basis increased by 24, 342, and 96 respectively. - The short - fiber持仓量 decreased by 7238 to 367819, and the short - fiber成交量 decreased by 362955 to 17979. - The short - fiber华东现货价格 dropped by 150 to 6.410, and the short - fiber产销 rate remained at 35% [1]. - **Bottle - chip** - Futures prices of bottle - chip contracts 2505, 2506, and 2509 decreased by 154, 168, and 138 respectively compared to the previous day. The price differences PR05 - 06, PR05 - 09, and PR主力基差 changed by 14, - 30, and - 24 respectively. - The bottle - chip持仓量 decreased by 3589 to 15457, while the bottle - chip成交量 increased by 27174 to 28610. - The bottle - chip华东现货价格 dropped by 115 to 5570, and the bottle - chip华南现货价格 dropped by 150 to 5650 [1]. 3.2 Spot News - **Short - fiber** - Short - fiber futures continued to decline significantly. Factory quotes for spot goods remained stable, but discounts were available for negotiation. High - price transactions were difficult, while low - price purchases were moderate. The mainstream negotiation range for semi - bright 1.4D was 6200 - 6600, with some lower at 6000 - 6100. The average sales - to - production ratio of direct - spinning polyester staple fiber factories was 35% [1]. - **Bottle - chip** - Upstream polyester raw material prices fell, and most polyester bottle - chip factories resumed quoting with lower prices. The trading atmosphere in the polyester bottle - chip market was active, with market transactions exceeding 100,000. The 4 - 6 month orders were mostly traded at 5510 - 5670 yuan/ton ex - factory, with a small amount at 5900 yuan/ton ex - factory. Some terminal large enterprises held tenders, and the specific transactions were being followed up [2]. 3.3 Trend Intensity The trend intensity of short - fiber and bottle - chip is - 1, indicating a bearish view on the day - trading of the main contracts on the reporting day [2].