行业 豆粕 日期 2025 年 6 月 13 日 021-60635732 yulanlan@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F0301101 021-60635740 linzhenlei@ccb.ccbfutures.co m期货从业资格号：F3055047 021-60635727 wanghaifeng@ccb.ccbfutures.c om期货从业资格号：F0230741 农产品研究团队 研究员：余兰兰 研究员：林贞磊 研究员：王海峰 研究员：洪辰亮 研究员：刘悠然 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 | 表1：行情回顾 | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 合约 | 前结算价 | 开盘价 | 最高价 | 最低价 | 收盘价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量 | 持仓量 | 持仓量变化 | | 豆粕2507 | 2864 | 2872 | 2886 | 2853 | 2874 | 10 | 0.35% | 68216 | ...

2025 年 6 月 13 日 对二甲苯：油价大幅上涨，估值重塑 商 品 研 究 PTA：成本推升，反套离场 MEG：多 PTA 空 MEG 对二甲苯、PTA、MEG 基本面数据 | 日 期 | P X主力收盘 | P T A主力收盘 | M E G主力收盘 | P F主力收盘 | S C主力收盘 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025-06-12 | 6536 | 4620 | 4234 | 6362 | 3645 | | 2025-06-11 | 6528 | 4620 | 4285 | 6414 | 3563 | | 2025-06-10 | 6502 | 4612 | 4269 | 6358 | 3559 | | 2025-06-09 | 6494 | 4602 | 4256 | 6388 | 3514 | | 2025-06-06 | 6556 | 4652 | 4261 | 6394 | 3525 | | 日度变化 | 0.1% | 0.0% | -1.2% | -0.8% | 2.3% | | 月 差 | P X（ 9 - 1） | P T ...

商 品 研 究 2025 年 6 月 13 日 沥青：暂时震荡 王涵西 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0019174 wanghanxi023726@gtjas.com 【基本面跟踪】 表 1：沥青基本面数据 | | 项目 | 单位 | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨跌 | 昨夜夜盘收盘价 | 夜盘涨跌 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | BU2507 | 元/吨 | 3,554 | 1.89% | 3,540 | -0.39% | | | BU2508 | 元/吨 | 3,543 | 1.78% | 3,530 | -0.37% | | | | | 昨日成交 | 成交变动 | 昨日持仓 | 持仓变动 | | 期货 | BU2507 | 手 | 52,667 | 12,111 | 60,412 | (516) | | | BU2508 | 手 | 12,642 | 450 | 29,057 | 1,242 | | | | | 昨日仓单 | 仓单变化 | | | | | 沥青全市场 | 手 | 91510 | 0 | | | | | | | 昨日价差 | 前日价差 ...

| | | | Million | 国投期货 | 软商品日报 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 操作评级 | 2025年06月12日 | | 棉花, | ☆☆☆ | 曹凯 首席分析师 | | 纸浆 | ☆☆☆ | F03095462 Z0017365 | | 白糖 | ☆☆☆ | 黄维 高级分析师 | | 苹果 | ★☆☆ | F03096483 Z0017474 | | 天然橡胶 | な女女 | | | 20号胶 | な女女 | 胡华轩 高级分析师 | | 丁二烯橡胶 ☆☆☆ | | F0285606 Z0003096 | | | | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | (苹果) 期价偏弱震荡。现货方面，主流报价持稳。需求进入谈季，虽然目前冷库苹果库存较低，但是时令水果上市量增加，天气也较 为炎热,苹果需求有所下降,现货价格涨势放缓。从交易逻辑来看,市场的交易重心转向新季度的估产。今年西部产区受到寒 潮和花期大风的影响，坐果率和苹果质量可能会受到一些影响。不过，4月份寒潮过程中低温对产量的影响不大，主要增加了果 锈的风险。 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For soda ash, supply pressure is gradually increasing, demand has not improved significantly, and although the futures market has a short - term rebound, the upward pressure is large. It is recommended to short after the rebound of the soda ash main contract [2]. - For glass, the current futures price has fallen below the profit support, and there is still upward momentum from the basis regression. In the short - term, it is advisable to go long at low prices, while in the medium - to - long - term, it is advisable to go short [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - Soda ash main contract closing price is 1175 yuan/ton, down 27 yuan; glass main contract closing price is 981 yuan/ton, down 17 yuan [2]. - The price difference between soda ash and glass is 194 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; soda ash main contract open interest is 1,602,361 lots, an increase of 105,599 lots; glass main contract open interest is 1,490,737 lots, an increase of 64,703 lots [2]. - Soda ash top 20 net position is - 314,426 lots, down 15,120 lots; glass top 20 net position is - 233,116 lots, down 17,006 lots [2]. - Soda ash exchange warehouse receipts are 5,495 tons, unchanged; glass exchange warehouse receipts are 877 tons, unchanged [2]. - The price difference between soda ash September - January contracts is 10 yuan/ton, down 7 yuan; the price difference between glass September - January contracts is - 59 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan [2]. - Soda ash basis is 65 yuan/ton, an increase of 23 yuan; glass basis is 67 yuan/ton, an increase of 17 yuan [2]. Spot Market - North China heavy soda ash is 1,240 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan; Central China heavy soda ash is 1,350 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - East China light soda ash is 1,305 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; Central China light soda ash is 1,265 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan [2]. - Shahe glass large plate is 1,048 yuan/ton, unchanged; Central China glass large plate is 1,070 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Soda ash plant operating rate is 80.76%, an increase of 2.19 percentage points; float glass enterprise operating rate is 75.53%, down 0.15 percentage points [2]. Industry Situation - Glass in - production capacity is 15.68 million tons/year, an increase of 0.05 million tons; the number of glass in - production production lines is 224, down 1 [2]. - Soda ash enterprise inventory is 1.6783 billion tons, an increase of 513,000 tons; glass enterprise inventory is 69.754 million heavy boxes, an increase of 2.092 million heavy boxes [2]. Downstream Situation - The cumulative value of real estate new construction area is 178.3584 million square meters, an increase of 48.3938 million square meters; the cumulative value of real estate completion area is 156.4785 million square meters, an increase of 25.8758 million square meters [2]. Industry News - China and the US have reached a framework on implementing the consensus of the two heads - of - state phone call and the Geneva talks [2]. - The Ministry of Foreign Affairs has no further information on the next arrangements for China - US economic and trade consultations [2]. - China will implement zero - tariff on 100% of tariff items for 53 African diplomatic countries [2]. - The central bank conducted a 1 - trillion - yuan 3 - month outright reverse repurchase operation on June 7 to release medium - and long - term liquidity [2]. - Industrial Securities clarified that it has not received any written or oral information about the merger with Huafu Securities [2]. - From January to May, China's automobile sales reached 12.748 million vehicles, with new energy vehicles accounting for 44% [2]. Supply and Demand Analysis - On the supply side, although the overall profit of the soda ash industry has declined, natural soda ash projects still maintain high profits. The maintenance of traditional backward production capacity has intensified, and the expansion of natural soda ash project capacity has led to an increase in production and capacity utilization, resulting in large supply pressure [2]. - On the demand side, futures and spot traders are active in restocking, but the decline in soda ash spot prices is expected to lead to a decline in demand. The continuous decline in glass production also drags down the demand for soda ash, and the subsequent de - stocking speed of soda ash will slow down [2]. - For glass, on the supply side, a new cold - repair production line has been added, the weekly output has decreased, the industry's overall profit is poor, and the willingness of enterprises to support prices is limited. On the demand side, the real - estate situation is not optimistic, the demand will further weaken in the off - season, downstream deep - processing orders are unstable, and procurement is mainly for rigid demand [3].

有色早报 研究中心有色团队 2025/06/12 铜 ： 日期 沪铜现货 升贴水 废精铜 价差 上期所 库存 沪铜 仓单 现货进口 盈利 三月进口 盈利 保税库 premium 提单 premium 伦铜 C-3M LME 库存 LME 注销仓单 2025/06/05 80 805 105791 31687 -1366.56 279.74 79.0 98.0 93.15 138000 83300 2025/06/06 75 974 107404 32278 -1323.74 19.48 41.0 65.0 69.84 132400 77800 2025/06/09 70 944 107404 34242 -1215.58 217.42 43.0 66.0 95.78 122400 67800 2025/06/10 90 1043 107404 33746 -1195.14 161.13 43.0 66.0 84.10 120400 71725 2025/06/11 90 1103 107404 33373 -874.85 136.66 38.0 60.0 55.49 119450 70700 变化 0 60 ...

| 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑及价格区间 | | --- | --- | --- | | 原油 | 高空 | 地缘升温，油价跳涨，关注高空机会。EIA 最新月报数据显示，原油供给 | | | | 压力逐渐上升；伊核谈判不确定性上升，美国从中东撤离部分人员，中东 | | | | 地缘冲突升温；市场调查数据显示，OPEC 实际产量低于计划量；消费旺 | | | | 季到来，中国原油进口回升。策略：轻仓试空。SC【490-505】 | | | 盘整 | 油价行至压力位，下游化工需求上升，液化气盘整。成本端油价短期受地 | | LPG | | 缘和消费旺季带动，走势偏强，但上行阻力上升；供需双增，炼厂检修逐 | | | | 渐结束，供给量上升，下游化工需求保持平稳，PDH 开工有上升预期。策 | | | | 略：卖出看涨期权。PG【4130-4230】 | | L | 空头反弹 | 原油走强，盘面延续反弹，华北基差为-2（环比+4），停车比例为 13.4%。 | | | | 本周装置重启计划偏多，预计产量增加；社会库存转为累库，农膜需求淡 | | | | 季，下游补库动力不足，后市中游存在继续累库风险。策略：基 ...

【现货消息】 短纤：直纺涤短期货跟随原料震荡盘整，现货方面，工厂报价维稳，成交优惠商谈。期现. 基差报价多 维持，成交刚需为主。半光 1.4D 主流在 6400~6700 区间，较低 6300~6350 区间。今日直纺涤短销售一般，截 止下午 3:00 附近，工厂平均产销 69%，部分工厂产销：100%、70%、80%、100%、100%、35%、30%、30%、 40%、70%。 瓶片：聚酯原料期货震荡收跌，聚酯瓶片工厂报价多稳, 局部下调 20-40 元不等。日内聚酯瓶片市场成 交气氛一般。6-8 月订单多成交在 5820-5950 元/吨出厂不等，局部少量略高 5980-5990 元/吨出厂不等，品牌 不同价格略有差异。 2025 年 06 月 12 日 短纤：成本抬升，跟随上涨 瓶片：成本抬升，跟随上涨 贺晓勤 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0017709 hexiaoqin024367@gtjas.com 钱嘉寅（联系人） 从业资格号：F03124480 Qianjiayin028310@gtjas.com 【基本面跟踪】 | | | 昨日 | 前日 | 变化 | | 昨日 | 前日 | 变化 | | -- ...

| | | | Millio | 国投期货 | 软商品日报 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 操作评级 | 2025年06月11日 | | 棉花 | な女女 | 曹凯 首席分析师 | | 纸浆 | な女女 | F03095462 Z0017365 | | 白糖 | ななな | 胡华轩 高级分析师 | | 苹果 | ★☆☆ | F0285606 Z0003096 | | 木材 | 女女女 | | | 20号胶 | な女女 | 黄维 高级分析师 | | 天然橡胶 | 女女女 | F03096483 Z0017474 | | 丁二烯橡胶 ☆☆☆ | | | | | | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | (棉花&棉纱) 今天郑棉小幅上涨，目前中美谈判传出来信息比较积极，关注具体情况。棉花现货成交一般,贸易商采购比较积极,甚差稳中 偏强。纯棉纱纺企顺价走货,市场信心不足,近期下游开机缓慢走低,成品库存有所增加，压力有所增加,反观棉花现货价格 坚挺，优质资源逐渐减少，基差持续偏强，市场对于后期库存有偏紧的预期，截至5月底棉花商业库存为 ...

祁玉蓉（F03100031, Z0021060），联系电话：010-8229 5006 | 铅锌日评20250611：沪铅下方支撑较强；沪锌偏弱整理 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025/6/11 指标 单位 | | | 今值 | | 变动 近期趋势 | | SMM1#铅锭平均价格 | | 元/吨 | 16,625.00 | | 0.61% | | 期货主力合约收盘价 | 沪铅期现价格 | 元/吨 | 16,880.00 | | 0.69% | | 沪铅基差 元/吨 | | | -255.00 | -15.00 | | | 升贴水-上海 元/吨 | | | -25.00 | - | | | 升贴水-LME 0-3 | | 美元/吨 | -27.55 | | 0.40 | | 升贴水-LME 3-15 | 价差 | 美元/吨 | -68.10 | -0.70 | | | 沪铅近月-沪铅连一 元/吨 | | | -40.00 | | 5.00 | | 沪铅连一-沪铅连二 元/吨 铅 | | | 5.00 | 10.00 | | | 沪铅连 ...