Group 1 - The latest data indicates an unexpected rise in the UK's unemployment rate to 4.8%, the highest level since May 2021, while private sector wage growth slowed to 4.4%, below market expectations and the lowest since the end of 2021 [1][4] - The data suggests a loosening labor market, providing support for more dovish members of the Monetary Policy Committee who wish to maintain interest rate cut expectations [4] - The number of job vacancies decreased by only 9,000 in the three months to September, indicating that the labor market is stabilizing despite the recent challenges [4][8] Group 2 - The UK's inflation rate is nearly double the 2% target, leading to intensified debates within the Bank of England regarding the risk of a feedback loop from high inflation pushing up wage demands [6] - Recent discussions among policymakers, including Megan Greene, highlight concerns about second-round effects of inflation, although the market has largely ruled out further rate cuts this year [6] - The recent slowdown in layoffs due to the April payroll tax increase and minimum wage rise aligns with a key survey indicating stabilization in multiple labor market indicators [8]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Cautiously bearish. [5] - Arbitrage: Neutral. [5] Core View - The domestic supply pressure remains as the domestic smelting profit narrows but does not affect the smelting seasonality. The opening of the export window reverses the short - allocation logic marginally, strengthening the linkage between the Shanghai zinc price and overseas macro factors. Although there are short - term fluctuations due to tariff trade wars, there is no need to be overly pessimistic in the long - term. [4] Summary by Related Catalogs Important Data Spot - LME zinc spot premium is $100.45 per ton. SMM Shanghai zinc spot price is 22,200 yuan per ton, down 100 yuan from the previous trading day, with a spot premium of - 60 yuan/ton. SMM Guangdong zinc spot price is 22,210 yuan per ton, down 110 yuan, with a spot premium of - 50 yuan/ton. Tianjin zinc spot price is 22,210 yuan per ton, down 100 yuan, with a spot premium of - 50 yuan/ton. [1] Futures - On October 13, 2025, the SHFE zinc main contract opened at 22,450 yuan/ton, closed at 22,255 yuan/ton, down 130 yuan from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 177,344 lots, and the open interest was 101,699 lots. The highest price was 22,450 yuan/ton, and the lowest was 22,100 yuan/ton. [2] Inventory - As of October 13, 2025, the total inventory of SMM seven - region zinc ingots was 163,100 tons, a change of 12,900 tons from the previous period. The LME zinc inventory was 37,475 tons, a change of - 475 tons from the previous trading day. [3] Market Analysis - The domestic concentrate TC and imported TC continue to diverge, with the domestic concentrate TC declining. The opening of the export window reverses the short - allocation logic marginally. The LME inventory has fallen below 38,000 tons, and the overseas premium continues to strengthen. Although tariff trade wars cause short - term fluctuations, the long - term interest rate cut expectation remains unchanged, and there is no need to be overly pessimistic about the impact of tariffs. [4] Strategy - Unilateral: Cautiously bearish. [5] - Arbitrage: Neutral. [5]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report The medium - to long - term outlook for precious metals is bullish. In the short term, precious metals are surging rapidly. It is recommended that existing long positions be held cautiously, and new long positions should be entered with caution. Short - term investors are advised to either observe the market or conduct quick - in - quick - out trades. Price pullbacks are considered opportunities to build long positions for the medium - to long - term. The resistance levels for London gold are 4200 and then 4300, with support around 4100. For silver, the resistance is 55, and the support is 50 [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - On Monday, the precious metals sector continued its strong performance. The lease rates of silver and palladium remained high after a sharp increase, and the lendable quantity of SLV ETF was extremely low, indicating shortages in the spot market and potential short - squeeze issues. The results of the US "232" investigation on silver and palladium are expected to be submitted on October 19, which involves the sensitive topic of whether the US will impose a 50% tariff on these metals. COMEX gold 2512 contract closed at $4130 per ounce, up 3.24%; COMEX silver 2512 contract closed at $50.775 per ounce, up 7.47%. SHFE gold 2512 main contract closed at 927.56 yuan per gram, up 1.99%; SHFE silver 2512 contract closed at 11531 yuan per kilogram, up 2.84% [2]. 3.2 Interest Rate Cut Expectations and Fund Holdings - Interest rate cut expectations were generally stable. According to CME's "FedWatch" data, the probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in October was 1.7%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point cut was 98.3%. In December, the probability of keeping rates unchanged was 0%, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point cut was 4.5%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point cut was 95.5%. In January, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point cut was 2.2%, the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point cut was 49.1%, and the probability of a cumulative 75 - basis - point cut was 48.6%. - Long - term funds: SPDR Gold ETF holdings increased by 1.72 tons to 1018.88 tons; iShares Silver ETF holdings increased by 310.5 tons to 15754.26 tons. In terms of inventory, SHFE silver inventory decreased by 44.6 tons to 1124.4 tons per day; as of the week ending September 26, SGX silver inventory decreased by 43.6 tons to 1124.4 tons per week [3]. 3.3 This Week's Focus - Data: This week, focus on the US September retail sales and PPI data. Due to the US government shutdown, the release of the US September CPI, originally scheduled for October 15, has been postponed to October 24. - Events: There will be numerous speeches by Fed officials this week, which will provide more guidance for the October 31 FOMC meeting. Key speeches include those by Fed Governor Bowman on Tuesday at 20:45, Fed Chair Powell at 23:30, Fed Governor Waller on Wednesday at 03:25, 2025 FOMC voter and Boston Fed President Collins at 03:30, Fed Governor Milan on Thursday at 00:30, ECB President Lagarde at 02:00, and Fed Governor Waller at 21:00. Additionally, the IMF will release the "Global Economic Outlook Report" on Tuesday at 21:00, the Fed will release the Beige Book on Thursday at 02:00, and 2025 FOMC voter and St. Louis Fed President Musalem will speak on Saturday at 00:15 [4]. 3.4 Precious Metals Spot and Futures Price Table - SHFE gold main - continuous contract was at 927.56 yuan per gram, up 2.88%; SGX gold TD was at 926.48 yuan per gram, up 3.2%; CME gold main contract was at $4130 per ounce, up 2.34%. - SHFE silver main - continuous contract was at 11531 yuan per kilogram, up 4.05%; SGX silver TD was at 11453 yuan per kilogram, up 3.56%; CME silver main contract was at $50.775 per ounce, up 6.86%. - SHFE - TD gold was at 1.08 yuan per gram, down 71.73%; SHFE - TD silver was at 78 yuan per kilogram, down 428.57%. The CME gold - silver ratio was 81.3392, down 4.23% [6]. 3.5 Inventory and Position Table - SHFE gold inventory was 70728 kilograms, unchanged; CME gold inventory was 1235.5878 tons, down 0.54%; SHFE gold positions were 239996 lots, up 0.62%; SPDR gold positions were 1018.88 tons, up 0.17%. - SHFE silver inventory was 1124.456 tons, down 3.82%; CME silver inventory was 16179.8026 tons, down 0.43%; SGX silver inventory was 1172.37 tons, down 3.66%; SHFE silver positions were 495579 lots, up 7.71%; SLV silver positions were 15754.260981 tons, up 2.01% [15][17]. 3.6 Stock, Bond, and Commodity Summary - The US dollar index was 99.2444, up 0.41%; the US dollar - to - RMB exchange rate was 7.1366, up 0.18%; the Dow Jones Industrial Average was 46067.58 points, up 1.29%; WTI crude oil spot was $59.49 per barrel, up 1%; LmeS copper 03 was $10802 per ton, up 4.13%. - The 10 - year US Treasury yield was 4.05%, down 2.17%; the 10 - year US real interest rate was 1.75%, down 2.78%; the 10 - 2 - year US Treasury yield spread was 0.53%, down 1.85% [22].

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Gold prices recovered losses and reached new highs due to tariff concerns and a recovery in risk - appetite. The upward trend of gold prices remains unchanged due to tariff concerns and interest - rate cut expectations. - Silver prices saw a significant increase and reached a record high. The upward trend of silver prices remains unchanged, with the influence of tariff concerns and interest - rate cut expectations. [4][6] Summary by Directory 1. Previous Day's Review - For gold, the tech - stocks supported the rebound of US stocks, tariff concerns eased, but gold prices still rose. US and European stock markets rose, US bond yields fell, the US dollar index rose, and COMEX gold futures rose 3.24% to $4130 per ounce. - For silver, the tech - stocks supported the rebound of US stocks, and silver prices increased significantly. US and European stock markets rose, US bond yields fell, the US dollar index rose, and COMEX silver futures rose 7.47% to $50.775 per ounce. [4][6] 2. Daily Tips - **Gold**: The basis is - 3.25, with the spot at a discount to the futures; the inventory of gold futures is 70728 kilograms and remains unchanged; the 20 - day moving average is upward, and the K - line is above the 20 - day moving average; the main net position is long, and the main long position is decreasing. - **Silver**: The basis is - 62, with the spot at a discount to the futures; the inventory of Shanghai silver futures decreased by 17785 kilograms to 1169061 kilograms; the 20 - day moving average is upward, and the K - line is above the 20 - day moving average; the main net position is long, and the main long position is increasing. [5][6] 3. Today's Focus - Today, pay attention to the intensive speeches of the Fed Chairman and ECB members, the Eurozone's October ZEW economic sentiment index, and the UK unemployment rate. Also, there are various economic data releases and official speeches throughout the day, such as the release of the Singapore Monetary Authority's monetary policy statement, the minutes of the RBA's September monetary policy meeting, etc. [4][15] 4. Fundamental Data - **Gold**: The upward trend of gold prices remains unchanged due to tariff concerns and interest - rate cut expectations. The Shanghai gold premium is maintained at - 9.6 yuan/gram. - **Silver**: The upward trend of silver prices remains unchanged. The Shanghai silver premium has significantly expanded to - 290 yuan/gram, and the sentiment of domestic silver prices has clearly recovered. [4][6] 5. Position Data - **Gold**: On October 13, 2025, the long - order volume was 220,070, an increase of 1.45% compared to the previous day; the short - order volume was 78,569, an increase of 0.74%; the net position was 141,501, an increase of 1.84%. - **Silver**: On October 13, 2025, the long - order volume was 368,167, an increase of 7.22% compared to October 10; the short - order volume was 268,339, an increase of 7.57%; the net position was 99,828, an increase of 6.27%. [31][34]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news highlights a strong performance in the non-ferrous metals sector, with the National Index for Non-Ferrous Metals (399395) rising by 2.50% as of October 14, 2025, driven by significant gains in individual stocks such as Silver Holdings (601212) up 10.02% and China Rare Earth (000831) up 8.00% [1] - The increase in spot gold prices, reaching a record high of $4,148.93 per ounce, is attributed to the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts and tariff impacts, which have heightened risk aversion among investors [1] - Dongwu Securities indicates that the downward trend in real interest rates, combined with overseas fiscal and tariff pressures, is boosting safe-haven demand for precious metals, with expectations of further interest rate cuts in October [1] Group 2 - As of September 30, 2025, the top ten weighted stocks in the National Index for Non-Ferrous Metals (399395) include Zijin Mining (601899) and Northern Rare Earth (600111), collectively accounting for 53.12% of the index [2] - The Non-Ferrous ETF Fund (159880) closely tracks the National Index for Non-Ferrous Metals, reflecting the overall performance of listed companies in the non-ferrous metals sector on the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges [1][2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - The short - term and medium - term outlook for TL2512 is "oscillation", and the intraday view is "oscillation with a weak bias". The core logic is that the long - term and medium - term expectation of interest rate cuts still exists, but the possibility of a comprehensive short - term interest rate cut is low [1]. - For the TL, T, TF, and TS varieties, the intraday view is "oscillation with a weak bias", the medium - term view is "oscillation", and the reference view is "oscillation". Overall, in the short term, the upward momentum and downward space of Treasury bond futures are both limited, and they will mainly conduct bottom oscillation consolidation [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For the TL2512 variety, the short - term view is "oscillation", the medium - term view is "oscillation", the intraday view is "oscillation with a weak bias", and the reference view is "oscillation". The core logic is that the long - term and medium - term expectation of interest rate cuts still exists, but the short - term possibility of a comprehensive interest rate cut is low [1]. Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - Yesterday, Treasury bond futures opened higher and closed slightly up. On the news front, Trump's sudden tariff threat last Friday led to a rapid decline in the risk preference of the capital market and an increase in risk - aversion sentiment, which is beneficial to Treasury bond futures. From a macro - fundamental perspective, the problem of insufficient effective domestic demand still exists, and there is a need for a relatively loose monetary environment in the future. Policy easing expectations still exist, which strongly supports Treasury bond futures. However, in the short term, domestic economic data shows strong resilience, and the necessity of a comprehensive short - term interest rate cut is insufficient. The implied interest rate cut expectation between the current market interest rate and the policy rate is weak, and the upward momentum of Treasury bond futures is also insufficient [5].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that the short-term risks for the US stock market are increasing due to multiple factors including escalating US-China trade conflicts, government shutdowns, and low economic visibility, leading to potential downward pressure on stock prices [1][3] - The S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Dow Jones Industrial Average experienced weekly declines of 2.43%, 2.53%, and 2.73% respectively, reflecting the market's reaction to these risks [3] - The upcoming earnings season is expected to heighten the focus on earnings certainty, with a warning about the risks of high valuation corrections [1][3] Group 2 - The Indian stock market is experiencing upward momentum driven by tax reforms and foreign capital inflows, particularly with the introduction of GST 2.0, which lowers consumption and automotive-related tax rates [7][8] - The Indian market benefits from a robust growth outlook, supported by structural reforms and a favorable demographic dividend, positioning it for long-term growth [8] - The Japanese stock market is showing significant strength due to political changes and expectations of continued monetary easing, with the new Prime Minister's policies reinforcing market optimism [11][12] Group 3 - The Hong Kong market is facing volatility due to the escalation of US-China trade tensions, with a focus on the progress of negotiations and earnings certainty as key factors influencing market sentiment [20][21] - The gold market is experiencing new highs driven by the interplay of government shutdowns and trade conflicts, with gold prices rising significantly as a safe-haven asset [32][33] - The oil market is under pressure from geopolitical tensions and trade conflicts, leading to a notable decline in oil prices, with Brent crude and WTI experiencing drops of 3.78% and 4.34% respectively [36][38]

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve's Powell suggests support for two more interest rate cuts this year, each by 25 basis points [12] - OPEC maintains its global oil demand growth forecast, expecting a significant narrowing of supply gaps next year [12] - The People's Bank of China signs a memorandum with the Monetary Authority of Macao for cross-border payment connectivity [12] Group 2 - The U.S. stock market sees all three major indices rise, with the Dow Jones up 1.29%, S&P 500 up 1.56%, and Nasdaq up 2.2% [4] - Major European indices also rise, with France's CAC40 up 0.21%, Germany's DAX30 up 0.6%, and the UK FTSE 100 up 0.16% [4] - The Hong Kong Hang Seng Index falls by 1.52%, with technology and education sectors experiencing significant declines [5] Group 3 - A surge in gold prices, with spot gold rising by 2.3% to $4110.7 per ounce, and silver prices increasing by 4.12% to $52.37 per ounce [7] - WTI crude oil rises by 2.16% to $59.23 per barrel, while Brent crude oil increases by 1.9% to $63.18 per barrel [7] - The A-share market sees a mixed performance, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.19% and the ChiNext Index down 1.11%, while the Sci-Tech 50 Index rises by 1.4% [6]

Report Overview - Report Title: Commodity Weekly Report - Report Date: October 13, 2025 - Report Author: Hu Jingyi from Guotou Futures 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - The commodity market closed up 0.46% last week, with precious metals leading the gain at 2.47%, non - ferrous and black metals rising 1.93% and 1.41% respectively, while agricultural products and energy - chemical products fell 0.47% and 1.63% respectively. Due to the re - intensification of the Sino - US trade situation, the commodity market may be under pressure in the short term [2]. - The US government shutdown, economic data uncertainty, inflation resilience, dovish statements from Fed officials, and central bank gold purchases support precious metals, which may fluctuate strongly in the short term. Non - ferrous metals may be under pressure due to trade tensions despite supply disturbances. Black metals are likely to face pressure with weak demand and increasing external trade frictions. Energy prices may oscillate weakly due to inventory increases and geopolitical factors. Chemical products may be affected by trade frictions and oil price drops. Agricultural products may face supply shortages if the trade war persists [3][4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - **Overall Market**: The commodity market rose 0.46% last week. Precious metals led the gain at 2.47%, non - ferrous and black metals rose 1.93% and 1.41% respectively, while agricultural products and energy - chemical products fell 0.47% and 1.63% respectively. The 20 - day average volatility of the commodity market increased significantly, and all sectors had net capital outflows [2]. - **Top Gainers and Losers**: Tin, copper, and coking coal led the gains with increases of 4.1%, 3.37%, and 3.11% respectively. Pigs, eggs, and crude oil had larger declines of 8.38%, 7.64%, and 3.71% respectively [2]. 3.2 Outlook for Different Sectors - **Precious Metals**: The losses from the US government shutdown, economic data uncertainty, inflation resilience, dovish Fed statements, and central bank gold purchases support precious metals. With the rising risk of the Sino - US trade war, the sector may oscillate strongly in the short term [3]. - **Non - Ferrous Metals**: Supply disturbances made the sector perform strongly during the holiday, but the re - intensification of the Sino - US trade situation led to large declines in previously strong varieties. Supply remains tight, but terminal consumption has slowed, and inventories are accumulating. The sector may be under pressure in the short term [3]. - **Black Metals**: During the long holiday, the apparent demand for rebar dropped significantly, production decreased slightly, and inventories increased sharply. With high - level molten iron, weakening steel mill profitability, and increasing external trade frictions, the sector may face pressure in the short term [3]. - **Energy**: International oil prices declined around the National Day holiday. The EIA report showed an unexpected increase in US crude oil inventories, and geopolitical factors may have a negative impact on oil prices. Oil prices may oscillate weakly in the short term, and attention should be paid to the escalation of the Russia - Ukraine conflict [4]. - **Chemical Products**: For building materials, trade friction may be unfavorable for PVC exports, and PVC may oscillate weakly. Polyester products may be affected by trade friction and oil price drops, facing cost collapse and weak demand [4]. - **Agricultural Products**: Possible US tariff increases may affect domestic soybean supplies in the first and second quarters of next year. If the trade war lasts, the overall supply may tighten in the first quarter of next year. Oils and fats may be under pressure due to the decline in crude oil prices and the uncertainty caused by the US government shutdown [4]. 3.3 Commodity Fund Overview - **Precious Metal ETFs**: Most gold ETFs had a weekly return of around 2.94% - 2.99%. The total net asset value of gold ETFs was 1,773.72 billion yuan, with a 1.66% increase. The total net asset value of all commodity ETFs was 1,853.72 billion yuan, with a 1.83% increase [38]. - **Other ETFs**: The energy - chemical futures ETF had a - 1.28% return, the feed soybean meal futures ETF had a - 0.29% return, the non - ferrous metal futures ETF had a 3.26% return, and the silver futures (LOF) had a 2.61% return [38].

Core Insights - Gold and silver prices have reached historical highs, with spot gold touching $4080 per ounce and COMEX gold futures surpassing $4100 per ounce, marking increases of approximately 55% and 56% year-to-date respectively [1] - Silver prices have surged over 70% this year, outperforming gold [1] Market Performance - On October 13, the A-share precious metals sector rose nearly 7%, with notable gains in stocks such as Western Gold (601069) and Zhaojin Gold (000506) [3] - U.S. gold stocks also saw pre-market gains, with Coeur Mining rising over 7% and other companies like Harmony Gold and Barrick Mining showing significant increases [3] Gold Jewelry Prices - Domestic gold jewelry prices have increased, with major brands adjusting their prices upwards; for instance, Chow Tai Fook raised its price from 1180 to 1190 yuan per gram [3][4] Investment Sentiment - Huatai Futures Research Team maintains a "cautiously bullish" stance on gold and silver, citing tariff risks and ongoing expectations for monetary easing as factors driving prices higher [5] - The precious metals index has risen over 113% this year, significantly outperforming the broader market, with several stocks doubling in value [5][6] Stock Performance - Notable stock performances in the precious metals sector include Zhaojin Gold with a 254.66% increase and Western Gold with a 187.34% increase year-to-date [6] - Hunan Gold has the smallest increase among the listed stocks at 49.21% [6] Risk Advisory - Silver YS (601212) issued a risk warning after its stock price surged 40.10% over four consecutive trading days, indicating potential for future declines [7]