Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints of the Report - The oil price is expected to fluctuate and move upward as the market continues to price in geopolitical risks [1] - The absolute prices of high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oils are likely to follow the oil price fluctuations, with high - sulfur fuel oil facing greater subsequent supply - demand pressure [2] - The asphalt market is expected to be in a game between "weak demand reality" and "strong cost expectation", with prices expected to stabilize and strengthen [2] - Polyester prices are expected to be strongly volatile in the short - term due to the game between downstream negative feedback and rising oil prices [3] - Rubber prices may rebound due to a warming macro - expectation but could be pressured by inventory accumulation [3] - Methanol is expected to maintain a bottom - level oscillation, with the current tense situation in Iran potentially increasing its volatility [5] - Polyolefins are likely to oscillate at the bottom, with inventory expected to rise gradually from late January [5] - PVC prices are expected to maintain a bottom - level oscillation, with the 05 contract showing a structure of weak reality and strong expectation [7] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Research Views - **Crude Oil**: On Monday, WTI February contract rose $0.38 to $59.50 per barrel (0.64% increase), Brent March contract rose $0.53 to $63.87 per barrel (0.84% increase), and SC2602 fell 0.3 yuan to 435.4 yuan per barrel (0.07% decrease). Market concerns about reduced Iranian exports offset the expected increase in Venezuelan supply. The price center of oil is expected to oscillate upward [1] - **Fuel Oil**: On Monday, the main fuel oil contract FU2603 fell 1.32% to 2461 yuan per ton, and the low - sulfur fuel oil contract LU2603 rose 0.93% to 3026 yuan per ton. The low - sulfur market will have sufficient supply in the short - term, while the high - sulfur market has some support. With Venezuelan heavy crude entering the market, it may be negative for relevant spreads. Short - term prices are expected to follow oil prices, and high - sulfur fuel oil is recommended to be shorted on rallies [2] - **Asphalt**: On Monday, the main asphalt contract BU2602 fell 0.25% to 3157 yuan per ton. Due to the Venezuelan situation, the expectation of tight processing raw materials strengthens cost - side support, and refinery supply decreases. The market is expected to be in a game between weak demand and strong cost expectation, with prices expected to stabilize and strengthen [2] - **Polyester**: TA605 rose 0.67% to 5142 yuan per ton, EG2605 rose 0.36% to 3880 yuan per ton, and the PX futures contract 603 rose 0.97% to 7308 yuan per ton. The production and sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang were moderately good. Some devices had changes. The market is in a game between downstream negative feedback and rising oil prices, with prices expected to be strongly volatile in the short - term. The supply of ethylene glycol is still abundant, and prices are expected to oscillate widely [2][3] - **Rubber**: On Monday, the main rubber contract RU2605 rose 100 yuan to 16130 yuan per ton, and the NR contract rose 60 yuan to 13010 yuan per ton. In 2025, Cote d'Ivoire's natural rubber exports increased by 13.4% year - on - year. In the United States, tire imports from different countries had different changes. In December 2025, the retail sales of passenger cars decreased year - on - year. The rubber inventory in Qingdao increased. Rubber prices may rebound due to a warming macro - expectation but could be pressured by inventory accumulation [3][5] - **Methanol**: On Monday, the spot price in Taicang was 2260 yuan per ton. In January, the arrival volume will decline significantly, and the MTO device load will also decrease. The port will face de - stocking pressure. Methanol is expected to maintain a bottom - level oscillation, with the Iranian situation potentially increasing volatility [5] - **Polyolefins**: On Monday, the mainstream price of East China拉丝 was 6350 - 6500 yuan per ton. In January, the supply may decrease slightly, and demand is expected to recover in the first half of the month but weaken in the second half due to the Spring Festival. Polyolefins are likely to oscillate at the bottom [5][7] - **Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC)**: On Monday, the PVC market prices in East, North, and South China had different adjustments. The supply is at a high - level oscillation, domestic demand is slowing, and the 05 contract has a large premium. The export policy change will put pressure on the far - month contract and support the near - month contract. PVC prices are expected to maintain a bottom - level oscillation [7] Daily Data Monitoring - **Crude Oil**: The spot price of Oman crude was 426.82 yuan per barrel on January 12, the futures price of SC was 435.70 yuan per barrel, the basis was - 8.88 yuan per barrel, and the basis rate was - 2.04% [8] - **Other Varieties**: Similar data on spot prices, futures prices, basis, and basis rates are provided for various energy - chemical products such as liquefied petroleum gas, asphalt, fuel oil, etc. [8] Market News - Market concerns about reduced Iranian exports during the anti - government protests offset the expected increase in Venezuelan supply. Iran is in communication with the US, and Trump is considering how to respond to the protests in Iran [10] - After the Venezuelan president was taken away by the US, Venezuela is expected to resume oil exports soon. Trump said Venezuela will transfer up to 50 million barrels of oil to the US, and oil companies are preparing for transportation [10] Chart Analysis - **4.1 Main Contract Prices**: Charts show the closing prices of main contracts for various energy - chemical products such as crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, etc. from 2022 to 2026 [12][14][16] - **4.2 Main Contract Basis**: Charts present the basis data for main contracts of different products, including crude oil, fuel oil, etc. over different time periods [29][34][35] - **4.3 Inter - period Contract Spreads**: Charts display the spreads between different contracts (e.g., 01 - 05, 05 - 09) for products like fuel oil, asphalt, etc. [42][44][47] - **4.4 Inter - variety Spreads**: Charts show the spreads between different varieties, such as crude oil internal and external markets, fuel oil high - low sulfur spreads, etc. [58][60][62] - **4.5 Production Profits**: Charts illustrate the production profits of products like LLDPE, PP, PTA, etc. [66][68] Team Members Introduction - **Zhong Meiyan**: Deputy Director of Everbright Futures Research Institute. She has over a decade of experience in futures derivatives market research, has won multiple awards, and has served many listed companies and well - known domestic enterprises [71] - **Du Bingqin**: Research Director of Energy and Chemicals. She has a background in finance, has won many industry awards, and has in - depth research on the energy industry chain [72] - **Di Yilin**: Analyst for natural rubber and polyester. She has won several awards in the industry and is good at data analysis [73] - **Peng Haibo**: Analyst for methanol, propylene, etc. He has a background in energy - chemical spot - futures trading and has passed the CFA Level III exam [74]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the surge in gold prices, reaching new highs, which has positively impacted Hong Kong-listed gold stocks, with notable increases in companies like China Gold International and Shandong Gold [1][2] - Spot gold prices reached $4630 per ounce, while spot silver prices surpassed $86 per ounce, both marking historical highs due to concerns over geopolitical risks and the independence of the Federal Reserve [1] - Citigroup has raised its short-term outlook for precious metals, increasing the gold price target from $4200 to $5000 per ounce and the silver target from $62 to $100 per ounce, reflecting heightened geopolitical risks and physical shortages [1] Group 2 - Specific stock performance includes China Gold International rising by 6.16%, Shandong Gold by 3.34%, and Zijin Mining by 2.61%, with several companies reaching historical highs [2] - Other notable increases in Hong Kong-listed gold stocks include Lingbao Gold at 2.64%, Chifeng Jilong Gold at 2.32%, and Zhenfeng Gold at 2.15% [2] - The overall positive sentiment in the gold sector is reflected in the performance of various companies, indicating strong investor interest amid rising gold prices [2]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 黄金 | 2604 | 震荡 | 强势 | 震荡 偏强 | 观望 升 | 宏观氛围冷却，短期避险需求上 | | 铜 | 2603 | 震荡 | 强势 | 震荡 偏弱 | 长线看强 | 宏观氛围冷却，短期多头了结意 上升 | 说明： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货 宝城期货贵金属有色早报（2026 年 1 月 13 日） 品种：黄金（AU） 日内观点：震荡偏强 中期观点：强势 参考观点：观望 核心逻辑：昨日金价强势运行，纽约金触及 4600 美元关口 ...

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2) Core View of the Report In 2026, precious metals, especially industrial precious metals, will continue to perform strongly. The report suggests that investors should adopt a bullish approach but strictly control their position sizes. Conservative traders can consider cross - commodity arbitrage strategies such as going long on silver and platinum while shorting gold and palladium. Long - hedgers should hedge in batches as soon as possible, and short - hedgers should appropriately reduce their hedging ratios [4][6]. 3) Summary by Relevant Sections Precious Metals Market Trends and Outlook - **Intraday Trends**: On January 12, Asian trading hours, precious metal prices continued to strengthen. The market expects the Fed to continue its loose monetary policy in 2026, and geopolitical risks have pushed up prices. The correction at the end of December 2025 has released internal adjustment risks. In 2026, precious metals will continue to be strong. Investors are advised to trade with a bullish view and control position sizes. This week, attention should be paid to US price data, Chinese import and export data, and the US Supreme Court's ruling on Trump's tariff measures [4]. - **Medium - term Trends**: In 2026, geopolitical risks may significantly increase. The restructuring of the global political and economic landscape and the loose monetary policies of central banks will boost the demand for reserve diversification, strategic value, and liquidity premiums of the precious metals sector. The sector will continue the upward trend since 2024. Silver and platinum will outperform gold, but price volatility will also increase. Investors are advised to trade with a bullish view and control positions. Conservative traders can consider cross - commodity arbitrage [6]. Precious Metals Market Data - Domestic precious metals market data shows that on January 12, the Shanghai Gold Index closed at 1,028.89, up 1.98%; the Shanghai Silver Index closed at 20,909, up 11.65%; the Guangzhou Platinum Index closed at 622.66, up 3.88%; the Guangzhou Palladium Index closed at 505.71, up 1.29% [5]. Major Macroeconomic Events/Data - **US Employment Data**: In December 2025, the US added 50,000 non - farm jobs, less than the expected 60,000. The unemployment rate dropped to 4.4%. Wage growth was stable, and the market expects the Fed to keep interest rates unchanged in January. The probability of a rate cut in April is 45%, and it is more likely to cut rates in June [18]. - **US - Venezuela Relations**: The US may lift more sanctions on Venezuela in the coming week. Venezuela is exploring expanding diplomatic relations with the US, and the US is evaluating the possibility of "phased resumption" of embassy operations in Venezuela [18]. - **Iran Situation**: In Iran, local riots have caused more than 500 deaths. Trump has threatened to intervene, and Iran blames the US and Israel. Trump will meet with senior advisors on Tuesday to discuss options against Iran [19].

Group 1: Report Information - Report title: Crude Oil Daily [1] - Date: January 13, 2026 [2] Group 2: Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided Group 3: Core View - Geopolitical risks have eased, the US is gradually lifting sanctions on Venezuela and starting to sell Venezuelan crude oil, resulting in marginal bearishness on the supply side. Coupled with the inventory build - up pressure of nearly 3 million barrels per day in the crude oil market in Q1 2026, crude oil is expected to be weak. Attention should be paid to the situation in Iran [7] Group 4: Market Review and Operation Suggestions Market Review | Variety | Opening Price ($/barrel) | Closing Price ($/barrel) | Highest Price ($/barrel) | Lowest Price ($/barrel) | Change (%) | Trading Volume (10,000 lots) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | WTI (main contract) | 58.19 | 58.62 | 59.57 | 57.46 | 1.7 | 27.71 | | Brent (main contract) | 62.6 | 63.02 | 63.92 | 61.83 | 1.66 | 45.85 | | SC (main contract, Yuan/barrel) | 431.7 | 437.5 | 440.1 | 429.8 | 2.75 | 8.66 | [6] Event - Trump met with the heads of 17 major oil companies at the White House. After the meeting, Trump said that oil companies would invest $100 billion in Venezuela to revitalize its oil industry. Oil companies have different attitudes. ExxonMobil is cautious about increasing investment, while Chevron expects to increase production by 120,000 barrels per day in 18 - 24 months, and Repsol expects to increase production by 100,000 barrels per day in two to three years [6] Group 5: Industry News - Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman: In addition to Switzerland as an intermediate channel, the communication channel between Iran and the US special envoy remains open [8] - US President Trump: He is in contact with Iranian opposition leaders and is studying very tough options against Iran. The military is also studying this matter [8] - US President Trump: Cuba has relied on a large amount of oil and funds from Venezuela for years, but this will no longer happen. He strongly advises Cuba to reach an agreement quickly [8] Group 6: Data Overview - The report provides multiple data charts, including global high - frequency crude oil inventory, EIA crude oil inventory, US crude oil production growth rate, Dtd Brent price, WTI spot price, Oman spot price, US gasoline consumption, and US diesel consumption. The data sources are Bloomberg, EIA, and Wind [10][14][21][23]

热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 来源：华泰期货 作者： 新能源有色金属组 相关品种：沪金、沪银 贵金属价格继续走强，昨日主力合约沪银2604开于18800元/千克，收于20945元/千克，涨幅达14.42%； 主力合约沪金2602开于1004.48元/克，收于1026.28元/克，涨幅达2.57%。 我们多次提示了对贵金属谨慎偏多观点，宏观面看，地缘与避险仍是现阶段维持贵金属看多环境的核心 逻辑：以伊冲突风险显著升温；此外，尽管市场已开始定价对于2026年美联储降息节奏偏缓的预期，但 货币政策方向仍向宽松，对贵金属价格难以形成强利空，宏观面因素对贵金属仍偏多。 基本面来看，现货紧张局面仍未缓解，COMEX白银近月未平仓合约对应较大实物交割需求，而全球白 银显性库存中可供交割实物料仍紧张，SLV白银ETF金融化锁仓的背景未发生显著改变，而银价的上涨 或将进一步强化该逻辑，整体看挤仓逻辑仍在。 总结看，未来实际利率仍有向下空间，叠加地缘因素多变以及去美元化的逐步推进，贵金属估值虽然偏 高但仍有向上动力。 风险提示：美元价格波动 本报告基于本公司认为可靠的、已公开的信息编制，但本公 ...

Group 1 - Gold prices have reached new highs, leading to significant increases in Hong Kong-listed gold stocks, with China Gold International rising over 6%, Shandong Gold up 3.3%, and Zijin Mining increasing by 3% [1] - Several gold companies, including Zhaojin Mining, Zijin Mining, and China Gold International, have reached historical highs in their stock prices [1] - Spot gold has surged to $4630 per ounce and spot silver has surpassed $86 per ounce, both setting new historical price records [1] Group 2 - Citigroup has raised its short-term outlook for precious metals due to increasing geopolitical risks, physical shortages, and uncertainties regarding the independence of the Federal Reserve [1] - Analysts, including Max Layton, have adjusted the gold price target for the next 0-3 months from $4200 per ounce to $5000 per ounce, and the silver target from $62 per ounce to $100 per ounce [1]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Macro Finance**: Index futures are bullish in the medium - long term, recommended to buy on dips; Treasury bonds are expected to trade sideways [1][5] - **Black Building Materials**: Coking coal for short - term trading; Rebar for range trading; Glass recommended to sell on rallies [1][7] - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Copper recommended to hold long positions cautiously at low levels and conduct rolling operations; Aluminum advised to strengthen observation; Nickel advised to observe or sell on rallies; Tin for range trading; Gold for range trading; Silver is expected to be strong; Lithium carbonate to trade in a range [1][11] - **Energy Chemicals**: PVC with a low - buying strategy; Caustic soda and soda ash to wait and see temporarily; Styrene for range trading; Rubber for range trading; Urea for range trading; Methanol for range trading; Polyolefins to be weak and volatile [1][19] - **Cotton Textile Industry Chain**: Cotton and cotton yarn are expected to be strong with fluctuations; Apples are expected to be strong with fluctuations; Jujubes are expected to rebound from the bottom [1][26] - **Agricultural and Animal Husbandry**: Pigs: Near - term contracts to sell on rallies and roll short, far - term contracts to be bullish cautiously; Eggs: Current 02 contract for farmers to wait and sell on rallies for hedging; Corn: Short - term to be cautious of chasing high, grain - holding entities to sell on rallies for hedging; Soybean meal: Near - term contracts to be treated strongly on dips, far - term contracts to be treated weakly; Oils: Soybean and palm oil rallies are limited, be cautious of chasing up, rapeseed oil is weak [1][30] Core Viewpoints The report provides trading guidance for various futures products in different industries, analyzing the market conditions, supply - demand relationships, and influencing factors of each product, and giving corresponding trading strategies based on these analyses. Summary by Directory 1. Macro Finance - **Index Futures**: Although the US December non - farm payrolls were disappointing, the unemployment rate dropped, reducing January rate - cut bets. The January consumer confidence index reached a four - month high. Geopolitical and precious - metal risks increased. Considering the December PMI returning to expansion and strong expectations of early - year policy support, the market may develop further, but the index may trade sideways. It is recommended to be bullish in the medium - long term and buy on dips [5] - **Treasury Bonds**: The decline momentum of the bond market has attenuated in the short term, but it still faces supply pressure and rising inflation expectations in the medium term. Whether the bond - market pressure has been fully released remains to be seen. Treasury bonds are expected to trade sideways [5] 2. Black Building Materials - **Coking Coal**: The number of coal - hauling vehicles has decreased, the inventory at ports has accumulated, and market demand has not improved significantly. It is recommended for short - term trading [7] - **Rebar**: The futures price is slightly higher than the electric - furnace off - peak electricity cost and slightly lower than the flat - rate electricity cost. The supply - demand pattern has weakened seasonally. The rebound space is limited, and it is recommended for range trading [7] - **Glass**: The short - term price rise is due to factors such as production line shutdowns and inventory reduction, but the fundamental pattern has not changed. It is expected to be weak, and it is recommended to sell on rallies [7][9] 3. Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The market is in a "strong expectation, weak reality" stage. The short - term upward momentum is exhausted, but the long - term shortage expectation and supporting factors still exist. It is expected to trade in a high - level range with a possible downward shift, and it is recommended to hold long positions cautiously at low levels and conduct rolling operations [11] - **Aluminum**: The weak reality of alumina surplus will continue, and the policy expectation is uncertain. The aluminum price is mainly driven by expectations and capital, and it faces great pressure in January. It is recommended to strengthen observation [13] - **Nickel**: The nickel ore quota is expected to be cut, but the overall nickel market remains in surplus. It is recommended to observe or sell on rallies [14] - **Tin**: The supply of tin ore is tight, and the downstream demand is recovering. It is expected to be strong with fluctuations, and it is recommended for range trading [15] - **Silver**: Due to factors such as the disappointing US non - farm payrolls and interest - rate cut expectations, the price is expected to be strong. It is recommended to hold long positions and be cautious of opening new positions [17] - **Gold**: Similar to silver, the price is expected to move up in the medium term. It is recommended for range trading and be cautious of chasing high [17] - **Lithium Carbonate**: The supply is expected to increase, and the demand is strong but may decline slightly. It is expected to trade in a range [18] 4. Energy Chemicals - **PVC**: The cost is at a low level, the supply is high, the domestic demand is weak, and the export is expected to maintain a high growth rate. Although the current supply - demand situation is weak, considering valuation and policies, it is recommended to buy at low levels [19] - **Caustic Soda**: The short - term has delivery pressure, and the medium - term may be supported by the market atmosphere of related commodities. However, the rebound space is limited without production cuts. It is recommended to wait and see [21] - **Styrene**: The current valuation is high, and the overseas gap has been filled. It is recommended to be cautiously bearish in the short term and focus on the improvement of cost and supply - demand in the long term [21] - **Rubber**: The supply is increasing during the high - yielding season, but the inventory accumulation may slow down. The downstream demand is weak. It is expected to trade in a range [22] - **Urea**: The supply is increasing, the agricultural and industrial demand has some support, and the inventory is at a low level. It is expected to trade in a range [23] - **Methanol**: The supply in the inland area is recovering, the demand for methanol - to - olefins is stable, and the traditional downstream demand is weak. Affected by geopolitical and port - arrival factors, the price is expected to trade in a range [24] - **Polyolefins**: The supply is still abundant, the demand has entered the off - season, and the price is expected to be weak and volatile [24] - **Soda Ash**: The supply is in surplus, but the cost support is strong. It is recommended to wait and see [26] 5. Cotton Textile Industry Chain - **Cotton and Cotton Yarn**: The global cotton supply and demand are adjusted, and the price has shown high - level fluctuations after a continuous rise. It is recommended to be cautious in the short term and optimistic in the long term [28] - **Apples**: The market of late - Fuji apples in the warehouse is stable, with different trading situations in different regions. The price is expected to be strong with fluctuations [28] - **Jujubes**: The acquisition in Xinjiang is almost finished, and the market trading atmosphere is different in different regions. It is expected to rebound from the bottom [29] 6. Agricultural and Animal Husbandry - **Pigs**: The short - term supply - demand relationship may turn loose, and the price may decline. In the medium - long term, the supply in the first quarter will increase, and the price after the Spring Festival will be under pressure. It is recommended to sell on rallies for near - term contracts and be cautiously bullish for far - term contracts [30][31] - **Eggs**: The short - term price may rise seasonally, but the supply is sufficient, limiting the increase. In the medium - long term, the new - laying pressure is not large, but the supply pressure still exists. It is recommended to wait for the opportunity to sell on rallies for hedging [33][34] - **Corn**: The short - term price is under selling pressure, and the long - term demand will gradually recover, but the supply - demand pattern is relatively loose year - on - year. It is recommended to be cautious of chasing high in the short term and sell on rallies for hedging [35][36][37] - **Soybean Meal**: The short - term price is expected to be strong with fluctuations, and the long - term price is expected to be weak. It is recommended to be long on dips for the near - term contract and pay attention to the pressure levels [38][39] - **Oils**: The short - term rallies of soybean and palm oil are limited, and rapeseed oil is weak. In the medium - long term, soybean and palm oil may rebound, and rapeseed oil will continue to be weak. It is recommended to be cautious of chasing up for soybean and palm oil and gradually exit long positions for rapeseed oil [39][43][44]

Oil Market - Oil prices experienced fluctuations with WTI February contract closing at $59.50 per barrel, up $0.38, a 0.64% increase, while Brent March contract closed at $63.87 per barrel, up $0.53, a 0.84% increase [2][16] - Concerns over Iran potentially reducing exports amid significant anti-government protests countered expectations of increased supply from Venezuela, another sanctioned OPEC member [2][16] - The U.S. President Trump indicated that any country doing business with Iran would face a 25% tariff, contributing to ongoing geopolitical risk pricing in the market [2][16] Fuel Oil - The main contract for fuel oil on the Shanghai Futures Exchange (FU2603) fell by 1.32% to 2461 yuan/ton, while low-sulfur fuel oil (LU2603) rose by 0.93% to 3026 yuan/ton [3][17] - The low-sulfur fuel oil market remains stable, while the high-sulfur market shows slight support due to recovering demand for marine fuel oil [3][17] Asphalt - The main asphalt contract (BU2602) decreased by 0.25% to 3157 yuan/ton, with market dynamics influenced by tightening raw material supply and declining refinery output [5][18] - The asphalt market is expected to navigate between weak demand realities and strong cost expectations, with a focus on future raw material supply [5][18] Rubber - Shanghai rubber futures (RU2605) rose by 100 yuan/ton to 16130 yuan/ton, with various rubber grades showing price increases [6][19] - The export volume of natural rubber from Côte d'Ivoire is projected to reach 1.98 million tons in 2025, a 13.4% increase from 2024 [6][19] PX, PTA, and MEG - TA605 closed at 5142 yuan/ton, up 0.67%, while EG2605 closed at 3880 yuan/ton, up 0.36% [7][20] - PX futures closed at 7308 yuan/ton, up 0.97%, with the market facing geopolitical risks that may elevate oil price premiums [7][20] Methanol - Methanol prices in Taicang were at 2260 yuan/ton, with CFR China prices ranging from $265 to $269 per ton [8][22] - The market is expected to maintain a bottoming trend, but tensions in Iran may increase volatility [8][22] Polyolefins - Polypropylene prices in East China ranged from 6350 to 6500 yuan/ton, with various production margins reported [9][23] - Supply is expected to see slight reductions due to temporary maintenance, while demand is anticipated to recover slightly before the Lunar New Year [9][23] PVC - PVC prices in East China showed slight adjustments, with the market remaining under pressure from high supply and slowing domestic demand [10][24] - The overall market sentiment is bearish, with expectations of price stabilization at lower levels [10][24] Urea - Urea futures prices remained stable, with the main contract closing at 1783 yuan/ton, while spot prices in Shandong and Henan decreased slightly [11][25] - The market is experiencing cautious demand, with production rates showing significant regional disparities [11][25] Soda Ash - Soda ash futures closed at 1239 yuan/ton, up 1.31%, with stable pricing from manufacturers [12][27] - The market faces a balance between basic supply and external factors, with expectations of pressure as the Lunar New Year approaches [12][27] Glass - Glass futures prices fluctuated, with the main contract closing at 1143 yuan/ton, while spot prices increased to an average of 1096 yuan/ton [13][28] - The market is supported by low supply and high transaction volumes, although demand may decline as the holiday approaches [13][28]

Intel 国投期货 原油: 供需宽松主导全年，价格中枢下移 国投期货研究院 根据IEA评估，2025年全球汽油需求预计达到2740万桶/目的峰值并在随后年份步入下滑通道： 郑若金 Z0011388 2026年1月 11/11/1 国投期货 需求展望 The Station the was and the 川川 历年布伦特原油价格走势 美元/桶 布伦特均价 ——近十年累计平均值 —— 近二十年累计平均值 ----自1976年以来累计平均值 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 数据来源：BP，路透，国投期货 % 汽油需求：全球需求达峰，区域分化明显 图:全球汽油需求 国新能源汽车销量及渗透率 图：美国汽油表观消费量 汽油消费增速 = 用消费 28 10% 5% 26 24 202 ZOZ coz ZOZ coz ZOZ ZOZ ZOZ ZOZ 202 ＞ 从 ...