在美股三大股指集体下跌的情况下，美股能源股集体上涨。具体来看，埃克森美孚、康菲石油涨超2%，斯伦贝谢涨近2%，西方石油涨逾3%。 中东地缘政治冲突引起全球市场投资者的担忧，周五（6月13日），欧美股市集体收跌。 截至收盘，道琼斯工业指数跌1.79%，报42197.79点；纳斯达克指数跌1.30%，报19406.83点；标普500指数跌1.13%，报5976.97点。本周美股三大股指均录得跌幅， 道琼斯工业指数一周累计下跌1.32%，标普500指数下跌0.39%，纳斯达克指数下跌0.63%。 | 序号 | 代码 | 名称 | 现价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 年初至今 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 1 | DJI | 道琼斯工业指数 | 42197.79 | -769.83 | -1.79% | -0.81% | | 2 | IXIC | 纳斯达克指数 | 19406.83 | -255.65 | -1.30% | 0.50% | | 3 | SPX | 标普500 | 5976.97 | -68.29 | -1.13% | 1.62% | 欧洲三 ...

我翻了一下行情，确实看到了不少预示着风险的信号。A股今天开盘走势不利，中等低开后能否回拉？短期内几乎注定是跌的态势。虽然权重板块如黄金、 石油和有色金属可能还会有一些表现，但对于很多科技股来说，情况并不乐观。 #夏季图文激励计划# 尊敬的审阅人员和品鉴读者：本文是经过严格查阅相关权威文献和资料。 全文数据有据可依，可供查证。 有没有注意到？这次，终于是忍不住了——以色列对伊朗动手了！原本在复杂的国际局势中，局部的冲突看似远离我们，但这个一夜之间的举动，直接让全 球市场的情绪失控了。黄金、原油直线拉升，欧美股指期货和亚太股市几乎全线下跌，反映出市场的恐慌情绪正快速蔓延。你是不是也有点担心，今天的股 市也会被波及呢？ 你知道吗？在以色列和伊朗的局势中，黄金和原油的涨势可不只是偶然。从历史经验来看，这两个商品一向是全球市场的不稳定时期的避风港。尤其是黄 金，作为避险资产，通常会受到这种地缘政治风险的直接影响。你有没有注意到，这几天黄金价格已经突破了历史高点？这不单是市场恐慌，更是资金对不 确定性的集体反应。每一次局势恶化，黄金的避险属性都会被资本市场反复验证。今天，可能正是黄金新一轮上涨的开始。 说到A股的走势，我 ...

Group 1: Oil Market Insights - On June 13, international crude oil prices surged significantly, with WTI crude futures rising over 14% to a peak of $77.62 per barrel, the highest since January 21 of this year [1][2] - Domestic crude oil futures also saw a spike, reaching a limit-up price of 535.2 yuan per barrel, marking a new high since April 7, before closing at 529.9 yuan per barrel, up 7.9% [2] - Analysts attribute the surge in oil prices to escalating geopolitical risks in the Middle East, a weaker dollar due to lower-than-expected U.S. CPI data, and strong fundamentals in the oil market [2][4] Group 2: Gold Market Developments - International gold prices also rose sharply, with London spot gold exceeding $3440 per ounce, reaching a high of $3444.49 per ounce, and COMEX gold futures hitting $3467 per ounce, both marking new highs since April 22 [1][3] - The increase in gold prices is driven by heightened geopolitical tensions and a decline in U.S. economic data, which has raised expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut [3][5] - Domestic gold futures also experienced significant gains, with the main contract closing at 794.36 yuan per gram, up 1.72%, and peaking at 801.14 yuan per gram, the first time surpassing 800 yuan per gram since May 9 [3] Group 3: Future Price Projections - Analysts suggest that while short-term volatility in oil prices is expected due to market speculation, gold may exhibit stronger long-term performance due to its monetary and safe-haven attributes [4][5] - The potential for gold prices to reach between $3000 and $3200 per ounce for long positions, with a possibility of surpassing $3500 per ounce if geopolitical conflicts persist, is highlighted [5] - The ongoing geopolitical tensions and the shift in monetary policy are likely to support gold prices, with projections indicating a potential rise to $3800 per ounce in the future [5]

Group 1: Market Reactions - The US stock market opened lower, with the Dow Jones down 1.14%, Nasdaq down 1.07%, and S&P 500 down 0.83% as of 22:45 [1] - Major tech stocks mostly declined, with Apple up 0.21%, while Amazon, Tesla, Nvidia, and Google fell over 1% [2] Group 2: Geopolitical Tensions - Israel's air force conducted multiple strikes in Iran, resulting in significant casualties, with 329 injured and 78 dead [3] - Israel announced the closure of all its embassies globally and the suspension of consular services [4] - Iran's civil aviation organization suspended all domestic and international flights until further notice [5] - Iran officially withdrew from nuclear negotiations with the US [6] Group 3: Gold Market Dynamics - International gold prices surged past $3,400 per ounce due to rising geopolitical tensions [7][8] - The World Gold Council noted that increased geopolitical risks typically drive investors towards safe-haven assets like gold, leading to heightened market activity [10] - Geopolitical risk is a significant driver of gold prices, contributing to an 8% increase in 2024 and 5.7% in the first five months of 2025 [11] Group 4: Oil Market Impact - Following the Israeli strikes, concerns over potential disruptions to Middle Eastern oil supplies led to a spike in oil prices, with WTI crude rising over 14% at one point [12] - Iran's oil production has significantly recovered, reaching approximately 3.3 million barrels per day, close to pre-sanction levels [12] - The potential for military action raises concerns about supply disruptions, but OPEC+ has sufficient spare capacity to offset potential losses from Iran [13] - Long-term oil price trends will depend on global growth prospects and supply-demand dynamics, with caution advised against chasing oil investments at current price levels [14]

美股能源股爆发。 | 取消排序 | 最新, | 总市值↓ | 涨幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | us 微软 | 478.270 | 3.55万亿 | -0.13% | | MSFT | 475.970 盘前 | | -0.61% | | us 英伟达 | 143.218 | 3.49万亿 | -1.23% | | NVDA | 142.470 盘前 | | -1.74% | | us 苹果 | 197.300 | 2.95万亿 | -0.95% | | AAPL | 199.500 盘前 | | 0.15% | | US V 马 沙 | 211.060 | 2.24万亿 | -1.02% | | AMZN | 209.690 盘前 | | -1.66% | | Us 谷歌-A | 173.940 | 2.11万亿 | -1.00% | | GOOGL | 172.320 盘前 | | -1.92% | | us Meta Platforms I | 692.035 | 1.74万亿 | -0.19% | | META | 687.640 盘前 | | -0.82% | | us ...

Group 1: Geopolitical Tensions and Oil Prices - Israel's airstrike on Iran has escalated geopolitical tensions, leading to a significant increase in gold prices, which briefly surpassed $3,400 per ounce [1] - International oil prices surged, with WTI and Brent crude oil prices both rising over 7% in response to the conflict [1] - Iran, as the third-largest oil producer in OPEC, controls the Strait of Hormuz, which accounts for nearly 40% of global oil exports; any disruption in this area could lead to a sharp increase in oil prices [2][4] Group 2: Market Reactions and Predictions - Despite the airstrike, Iran's oil facilities remain operational, but market concerns about ongoing geopolitical tensions persist [2] - Analysts predict that the combination of escalating tensions, seasonal demand, and other factors will support higher oil prices in the short term [2] - Historical data shows that conflicts have previously led to significant spikes in oil prices and shipping costs, indicating potential for similar outcomes in the current situation [5] Group 3: Shipping and Transportation Impacts - The potential closure of the Strait of Hormuz could lead to oil tanker rates increasing significantly, similar to past conflicts where shipping costs surged due to heightened risks [5][6] - The shipping industry may see a structural improvement in oil tanker demand due to the geopolitical situation, although the probability of a complete blockade is considered low [6] - The impact of the conflict on container shipping rates is being assessed, with concerns about the safety of vessels in the region, particularly those associated with Israel [6]

据央视新闻消息，以色列空军13日当天已对伊朗境内的目标发动了5轮袭击。据悉，以方总计已发动数 百次打击行动。 当地时间13日早间，以色列国防军发言人埃菲·戴弗林发布视频声明称，当天凌晨以军共出动超过200架 战机参与对伊朗的首轮空袭，其间共投下330多枚弹药，打死了伊朗高级军事领导人以及其他指挥官。 伊朗国家电视台证实，伊朗武装部队负责人、总参谋长巴盖里在以色列袭击中死亡。 随后，以色列再次发动针对伊朗的新一轮袭击。本轮袭击包括伊朗城市大不里士、克尔曼沙阿省等。伊 朗东阿塞拜疆省危机管理中心负责人表示，该省三处军事区域遭以色列袭击。 以色列总理内塔尼亚胡13日凌晨说，以军行动目标是"打击伊朗核设施、弹道导弹工厂和军事能力"。 他还表示，以军对伊朗的打击会"持续多日"。 伊朗最高领袖哈梅内伊警告称，以色列此次袭击已为自己酿下苦果，必将自食其果。他还证实，多名伊 朗军方指挥官与科学家在以军袭击中丧生，他们的同事将立刻接替职位。 复旦大学国际问题研究院研究员、中东研究中心主任孙德刚在接受21世纪经济报道记者采访时表示，此 次以色列发起的代号为"狮子的力量"（Operation Rising Lion）的袭击，是一次 ...

Report Overview - There is no overall investment rating for the industry provided in the report [1] - The core view of the report is that due to the Middle - East geopolitical conflicts, international oil prices have risen significantly, affecting the prices of various chemical products. Each chemical product has its own supply - demand fundamentals, and price trends vary. It is necessary to pay attention to factors such as oil prices, production and shipment rhythms, and downstream demand [2][3][4] Each Chemical Product Summary Methanol - Middle - East geopolitical conflicts led to a sharp rise in international oil prices, increasing shipping risks in the Strait of Hormuz. The market expects future coastal imports to be far lower than expected, causing the methanol futures to hit the daily limit. Fundamentally, the arrival volume of imported methanol is high, the operating rate of coastal olefin plants has declined slightly, and port inventories have increased significantly. Domestic supply remains sufficient, and producer inventories have increased slightly. The volatility of methanol prices is expected to increase [2] Urea - The urea futures stopped falling, and the spot market improved. Agricultural purchases are scattered, and the production of high - nitrogen fertilizers for compound fertilizers in summer is ending. Demand support is insufficient, and producer inventories have increased significantly. Although exports are gradually opening up, the inspection process is slow, and some goods are locked, with port inventories remaining flat. Supply remains sufficient, and short - term downstream industrial and agricultural demand is weak. The price is weak in the short term but may stabilize and rebound as rainfall increases in major regions [3] Polyolefins - The main futures contracts of polyolefins rose significantly. The military conflict between Israel and Iran escalated the Middle - East geopolitical situation, increasing concerns about oil supply and causing a sharp rise in international oil prices, which directly drove up the prices of downstream products in the industrial chain. It is recommended to pay attention to the release of macro - risks in the future [4] Styrene - The main futures contract of styrene rose significantly. The sharp rise in international oil prices due to Middle - East geopolitical risks strengthened the cost support for styrene. Fundamentally, supply is expected to increase as multiple plants restart, and the operating rates of downstream "3S" plants are also expected to increase [5] Polyester - Geopolitical conflicts led to a sharp rise in oil prices, causing PX and PTA to rise in the morning but then partially giving back gains. The weekly loads of PX and PTA increased, while the operating rates of terminal weaving and dyeing decreased, and terminal orders weakened. The sales of filament yarns increased significantly, and enterprises are expected to maintain their operating rates after destocking. In the second half of the year, with the expectation of PTA inventory accumulation, holding far - month reverse spreads is recommended. PX has no prominent supply - demand contradictions but may have periodic mismatches, and its absolute price is mainly driven by oil prices. Ethylene glycol rebounded due to the boost of oil prices, with increased weekly operation, port inventory accumulation, and stable arrival volume. The supply - demand situation is slightly weakening. Short - fiber and bottle - grade chips rose and then moderately declined, with the overall price center rising. The short - fiber 7 - 8 spread fluctuated sharply. The industry's operating rate has declined from the high point in the first half of the year, and inventories have continuously decreased. Bottle - grade chips may face inventory accumulation pressure after the peak order season [6] Chlor - alkali - PVC closed higher. The fundamental situation of high supply and weak demand continues. In June, with fewer maintenance and new production, supply pressure is high. Exports have entered the off - season, domestic demand is weak, and there is inventory pressure. Although the price of calcium carbide has risen, chlor - alkali integration still has profits, and cost support is weak. The futures price may fluctuate at a low level. Caustic soda fell below the previous low. Major alumina plants in Shandong reduced their quotes. The comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali is good, and with less maintenance and new production capacity release in June, supply is at a high level. Non - aluminum demand is average, and there is resistance to high prices. Liquid caustic soda inventories are high, and the futures price is under pressure at a high level [7] Glass and Soda Ash - Glass closed lower. The industry continues to accumulate inventory, with high inventory pressure. Recently, cold repairs and ignitions coexist, and production capacity fluctuates slightly. Pay attention to the fuel switch of production lines in Shahe. Processing orders are weak. During the rainy season and with high inventories, the driving force is still weak. Soda ash continues to have high supply and high inventory, and the cost has decreased, causing the futures price to reach a new low [8]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: ★☆☆, indicating a bullish bias but limited trading operability on the market [1] - Fuel oil: ★☆☆, suggesting a bullish bias but limited trading operability on the market [1] - Low-sulfur fuel oil: ★☆☆, showing a bullish bias but limited trading operability on the market [1] - Asphalt: ★☆★, with a relatively more bullish indication [1] - Liquefied petroleum gas: ☆☆☆, indicating a short - term equilibrium state with poor market operability [1] Core Viewpoints - Geopolitical risks from the Israel - Iran conflict have caused a sharp rise in crude oil futures, and there is still room for trading geopolitical risks.虚值原油看涨期权 have hedging value, and short positions in futures can be considered after the geopolitical situation becomes clear [2] - In the context of the continuous fermentation of geopolitical conflicts, the prices of fuel oil and low - sulfur fuel oil follow the upward trend of oil prices, but their fundamentals face challenges such as weak demand and increased supply [2] - The price of asphalt follows the rise of crude oil but lags behind, and its cracking spread has dropped significantly. There are still fundamental support factors, and investment opportunities can be considered after the geopolitical risk premium of crude oil is removed [3] - The price of LPG has a limited follow - up increase due to its high price - to - value ratio and loose fundamentals. It may fall back if there is no substantial impact on Middle - East exports, and the market will fluctuate widely [4] Summary by Related Categories Crude Oil - Recently, crude oil futures have soared, with the Brent 08 contract rising 4.3% in the Asian session and the SC07 contract rising 6.9% intraday. The risk of a large - scale conflict in the Middle East has materialized. Referring to the extreme - case pricing when Iran blocked the Strait of Hormuz, the upward target of the Brent near - month contract is around $80/barrel [2] Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - Geopolitical conflicts have led to a continuous rise in oil prices, and the domestic fuel oil futures have followed suit, with the increase of high - sulfur fuel oil (FU) greater than that of low - sulfur fuel oil (LU). The demand for high - sulfur fuel oil in ship bunkering and deep - processing is still relatively low, and the supply of both high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oil is expected to increase, while the demand is insufficient [2] Asphalt - The price of asphalt has followed the rise of crude oil but lags behind, and its cracking spread has fallen below the previous low. The subsequent increase in production by local refineries lacks momentum, and the increase in asphalt production by major refineries is expected to be limited. The shipment volume of 54 sample refineries has increased, and the terminal demand is expected to be boosted. The de - stocking trend is expected to continue [3] LPG - The price of LPG has a limited follow - up increase due to its high price - to - value ratio and loose fundamentals. If there is no substantial impact on Middle - East exports, it may fall back. The domestic chemical demand has increased, but the subsequent growth space is limited, and the inventory of terminals and refineries has increased. The market will fluctuate widely [4]

周五，原油一度暴涨超10%，黄金等避险资产明显拉升，全球股市集体下挫。 以伊冲突爆发，地缘政治紧张情绪加剧，市场担心伊朗封锁全球最重要的石油动脉之一的霍尔木兹海峡。 霍尔木兹海峡连接波斯湾和阿拉伯海，每天大约有2000万桶石油和石油产品通过这里运输，占全球石油运输的近五分之一。若 被封锁，将对全球能源市场造成巨大冲击。 6月13日周五，多位分析师指出，伊朗完全封锁霍尔木兹的可能性极低。一方面，海峡太宽，部分水域属于阿曼，物理上难以完 全封锁。而且伊朗自身也依赖该航道进口大量民生物资。另一方面，封锁反而可能伤害伊朗的石油客户，从而引发反对。 尽管可能性较低，但随着局势不断升级，一些分析人士已经开始认真考虑这种极端情况。Kpler分析师称，当前局势已极端，不 能完全排除最坏情况。 霍尔木兹海峡连接波斯湾和阿拉伯海，宽达35至60英里，其中大部分海域属于阿曼而非伊朗。由于这条海峡太宽了，使得伊朗 几乎无法从物理上实现全面封锁。虽然很多船只确实要经过伊朗水域，但船只仍可以通过阿联酋和阿曼的水域绕行，并不完全 依赖伊朗控制的水道。 此外，在美国第五舰队驻扎巴林的背景下，伊朗要长期控制甚至关闭该海峡几乎是不现实的。在历史 ...