021-60635736 期货从业资格号：F3033782 投资咨询证书号：Z0014484 021-60635735 niejiayi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03124070 021-60635727 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03134307 报告类型 焦炭焦煤日评 | | | | | | 表1：12月11日焦炭焦煤期货主力合约价格、成交及持仓情况（单位：元/吨、手、亿元） | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 合约 代码 | 前收 盘价 | 开盘价 | 最高价 | 最低价 | 收盘价 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量 | 持仓量 | 持仓量 变化 | 资金流 入流出 | | J2601 | 1527 | 1525 | 1543 | 1488.5 | 1491.5 | -2.96% | 18,180 | 25,407 | -631 | -0.37 | | JM2605 | 1070 | 1065.5 | 10 ...

＃summary＃ 行业 纯碱、玻璃日报 日期 2025 年 12 月 12 日 油） 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3037892 硅）028-8663 0631 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3065843 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 021-60635727 期货从业资格号：F03134307 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 能源化工研究团队 研究员：李捷,CFA（原油燃料 研究员：任俊弛（PTA、MEG） 研究员：彭浩洲（尿素、工业 研究员：彭婧霖（聚烯烃） 研究员：刘悠然（纸浆） 研究员：冯泽仁（玻璃、纯碱） 请阅读正文后的声明 每日报 ...

今 日 早 评 重点品种： 【短评-甲醇】 江苏太仓甲醇市场价2105元/吨，上升27元 /吨；国内甲醇周产能利用率89.81%，环比+0.72%，山西亚鑫30 万吨甲醇装置预期近期检修结束；下游总产能利用率75.1%，周 下降1.17%；中国甲醇港口样本库存123.44万吨，周下降11.5万 吨；中国甲醇样本生产企业库存35.28万吨，周减少0.87万吨， 样本企业订单待发20.75万吨，周降低3.22万吨。评：国内甲醇 开工高位，下游需求小幅下降，本周甲醇港口库存大幅去库， 华东地区甲醇倒流内地强势支撑沿江主流库区提货。内地部分 市场偏强，企业竞拍成交一般，港口甲醇市场基差维稳，商谈 成交一般。甲醇港口库存高位下降，预计短期震荡偏弱运行。 【短评-白银】美国上周初请失业金人数激增4.4万人，达 到23.6万人，这一增幅为2020年3月以来最高。截至11月29日当 周，续请失业金人数降至184万人，创四年来最大单周降幅，当 周恰逢感恩节假期。评：初请失业金人数有所增加，美国就业 形势严峻，2026年降息或仍有空间，提升风险偏好。白银震荡 偏多，关注是否出现逼空行情。 投资咨询中心 2025年12月12日 研 ...

来源：市场资讯 作者： 李馨 棉花观点 市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面，昨日收盘棉花2601合约13860元/吨，较前一日变动+80元/吨，幅度+0.58%。现货方面， 3128B棉新疆到厂价14835元/吨，较前一日变动+5元/吨，现货基差CF01+975，较前一日变动-75； 3128B棉全国均价15013元/吨，较前一日变动+9元/吨，现货基差CF01+1153，较前一日变动-71。 近期市场资讯，近期巴基斯坦纱厂需求持续疲软，当地皮棉价格维持区间盘整。轧花厂仍惜售高等级库 存，部分低等级资源成交价较现行价格低500-1500卢比/莫恩德，为纱厂提供了补库良机。此外，纱厂 普遍反映经营压力重，纱线利润承压。10日卡拉奇棉花协会（KCA）2025/26年度现货价格稳定在15500 卢比/莫恩德。 风险 宏观及政策风险、主产国天气 白糖观点 市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面，昨日收盘白糖2605合约5245元/吨，较前一日变动-83元/吨，幅度-1.56%。现货方面，广西南 宁地区白糖现货价格5370元/吨，较前一日变动+0元/吨，现货基差SR05+125，较前一日变动+83。云南 昆明地区白糖现货价格5340元 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Views of the Report - PX is expected to be strong before the holiday due to tight supply - demand, but not to be chased at high prices in the short - term. Hold long PX and short BZ positions. Be cautious about the warehouse receipt pressure of PX01 contract [9]. - PTA is in a high - level volatile market with cost support. Hold long PX and short PTA positions for the 05 contract and conduct 5 - 9 positive spreads. Be wary of the negative feedback in the industrial chain caused by early terminal holidays from late December to early January [10]. - MEG is in a weak trend. Pay attention to the support of unplanned maintenance on the market. The price is expected to operate in the range of 3600 - 3900 yuan/ton. There is a pattern of increasing supply and decreasing demand in the next 2 - 3 months [11]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Dynamics - On December 11, Platts evaluated Asian PX CFR Unv1/China and FOB Korea at 835.67 dollars/ton and 814.67 dollars/ton respectively, both up 4 dollars/ton from the previous day. The FOMC cut the target interest rate by 25 basis points on December 10 [4]. - In the Platts closing assessment, the 1 - 2 month spread of PX continued to narrow. Some Asian PX term contracts have not been settled, and the volume of 2026 contracts is much lower than that of 2025 [6]. Fundamentals - PX: Domestic production start - up rate remains at 88.2% (- 0.3%). GS has a shutdown plan in December, Satorp in the Middle East restarts 700,000 tons, and there are maintenance plans for Zhejiang Petrochemical and Sheng Hong Refining [9]. - PTA: Mainland China's device changes are small this week, with a load of 73.7%. A 550,000 - ton device in Taiwan, China is shut down, and the load drops to 30% [7]. - MEG: As of December 11, the overall start - up load in mainland China is 69.93% (down 3.01% from the previous period), and the start - up load of syngas - made MEG is 72.17% (down 0.41% from the previous period) [7]. - Polyester: The start - up load of domestic polyester industrial yarn manufacturers remains stable at about 75%. The overall polyester load in mainland China is about 91.2% [7][8]. Trend Intensity - PX trend intensity is - 1, PTA trend intensity is - 1, and MEG trend intensity is 0 [9]. Futures and Spot Prices - Futures: PX, PTA, and PF closed up, while MEG and SC closed down on the previous trading day [2]. - Spot: PX, PTA, and short - fiber processing fees increased, while MEG, naphtha, and Brent crude oil prices decreased [2].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 目 录 1 每日观点 2 基本面/持仓数据 供给端来看，上周工业硅供应量为8.8万吨，环比有所减少3.29%。 需求端来看，上周工业硅需求为7.2万吨，环比减少12.19%.需求持续低迷. 多晶硅库存为29.3万吨，处于高位，硅片亏损，电池片亏损，组件盈利； 有机硅库存为43900吨，处于低位，有机硅生产利润为1215元/吨，处于盈 利状态，其综合开工率为74.84%，环比持平，高于历史同期平均水平；铝 合金锭库存为7.38万吨，处于高位，进口亏损为233元/吨，A356铝送至无 锡运费和利润为672.41元/吨，再生铝开工率为61.5%，环比持平，处于高 位。 成本端来看，新疆地区样本通氧553生产亏损为2874元/吨，枯水期成本支 撑有所上升。 2、基差: 12月11日，华东不通氧现货价9200元/吨，05合约基差为970元/吨，现货 升水期货。 偏多。 3、库存: ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the document. 2. Core Views of the Report - PTA: The supply - demand pattern of PTA has not changed significantly recently. Some polyester factories have made phased replenishments, and the spot basis fluctuates within a range. The futures market fluctuates with the cost side. Attention should be paid to oil price trends and downstream demand [5]. - MEG: The port inventory of ethylene glycol has risen to around 820,000 tons, reaching a high for the year. The arrival at the main port this week is moderately high, and with some domestic - trade trucks delivering into the tank, the short - term explicit inventory of ethylene glycol will still accumulate moderately. The supply - demand pattern of ethylene glycol in December is neutral, but there is great pressure for inventory accumulation in the medium - to - long term, and the market sentiment is mainly under pressure. As the delivery period approaches, the market will gradually limit positions, and it is expected that ethylene glycol will operate at a low level in the short term. Attention should be paid to the new changes in the equipment at low prices [7]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1前日回顾 No information provided in the document. 3.2每日提示 - PTA: Yesterday, the PTA futures fluctuated and closed higher. The negotiation atmosphere in the spot market was average, and the spot basis slightly strengthened. Polyester factories mainly replenished their stocks. The main - port goods in December were negotiated and traded at a discount of around 20 to the 01 contract, with sporadic transactions at a discount of 23 - 25 to the 01 contract. The warehouse receipts this week were traded at a discount of 26 to the 01 contract, and the price negotiation range was between 4,600 and 4,680. Today, the mainstream spot basis is 01 - 21. The PTA factory inventory is 3.86 days, a decrease of 0.06 days compared to the previous period. The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day moving average. The net long position of the main contract has increased [5][6]. - MEG: On Thursday, the price center of ethylene glycol declined weakly, and the market negotiation was average. In the night session, ethylene glycol fluctuated and declined. The spot negotiation was around a discount of 5 - 18 yuan/ton to the 01 contract. In the morning, the ethylene glycol market fluctuated weakly, and the buying interest in the market was average. The spot negotiation for this week and next week was around a discount of 7 - 20 yuan/ton to the 01 contract. In the afternoon, the market dropped rapidly, and the low - level spot was traded at around 3,576 yuan/ton. In terms of US dollars, the center of the ethylene glycol overseas market declined during the day. In the morning, the negotiation for recent shipments was around 434 US dollars/ton, and the negotiation for shipments from the end of December to early January was around 437 - 438 US dollars/ton. In the afternoon, the negotiation center dropped rapidly, and at the end of the session, the recent shipments were traded at around 424 US dollars/ton, and the shipments from the end of December to early January were traded at around 429 US dollars/ton. There were appropriate traders participating in buying during the day. The inventory in the East China region is 758,000 tons, an increase of 38,000 tons compared to the previous period. The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day moving average. The net short position of the main contract has increased [7]. 3.3今日关注 No information provided in the document. 3.4基本面数据 - **PTA Supply - Demand Balance Table**: It shows the PTA production capacity, production, import, total supply, polyester production, polyester demand for PTA, and other data from January 2024 to December 2025, as well as the changes in inventory and the supply - demand gap [11]. - **Ethylene Glycol Supply - Demand Balance Table**: It shows the ethylene glycol production, import, total supply, polyester production, polyester demand for ethylene glycol, and other data from January 2024 to December 2025, as well as the changes in port inventory and the supply - demand gap [12]. - **Price Data**: It includes the price changes of various products such as naphtha, paraxylene, PTA, ethylene glycol, and polyester fibers from December 10 to December 11, 2025, as well as the changes in basis and processing fees [13]. 3.5 PTA每日观点 - Fundamental analysis: The futures market fluctuated and closed higher, the spot basis slightly strengthened, and the inventory decreased slightly. The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day moving average. The net long position of the main contract has increased. - Expectation: The supply - demand pattern has not changed significantly recently. The futures market fluctuates with the cost side. Attention should be paid to oil price trends and downstream demand [5][6]. 3.6 MEG每日观点 - Fundamental analysis: The price center declined weakly, the inventory increased, the 20 - day moving average is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day moving average. The net short position of the main contract has increased. - Expectation: The port inventory has reached a high for the year. There is pressure for inventory accumulation in the medium - to - long term. It is expected to operate at a low level in the short term. Attention should be paid to the new changes in the equipment at low prices [7]. 3.7影响因素总结 - **Likely to be Bullish**: A 500,000 - ton/year ethylene glycol plant in Zhejiang has been shut down for maintenance as planned recently and is expected to restart around the end of January. A 400,000 - ton/year MEG plant in South China has been shut down for maintenance today, with a preliminary planned maintenance period of around 10 days [8][9]. - **Likely to be Bearish**: A 250,000 - ton/year MEG plant in Taiwan has been restarted with temperature rise. The plant was shut down for a short - term maintenance at the end of November [9]. 3.8 当前主要逻辑和风险点 Short - term commodity markets are greatly affected by the macro - level. Attention should be paid to the cost side, and the upper resistance level should be monitored for the market rebound [10].

玻璃纯碱早报 | | | | | | | | | 研究中心能化团队 | | 2025/12/12 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 玻 璃 | | | | | | | | | | | | | 2025/12/4 2025/12/10 2025/12/11 周度变化 日度变化 | | | | | | | | | 2025/12/4 2025/12/10 2025/12/11 周度变化 日度变化 | | | | 沙河安全 | 1044.0 | 1002.0 | 1002.0 | -42.0 | 0.0 | FG05合约 | 1131.0 | 1062.0 | 1053.0 | -78.0 | -9.0 | | 5mm大 板 | | | | | | | | | | | | | 沙河长城 | 1019.0 | 984.0 | 984.0 | -35.0 | 0.0 | FG01合约 | 1010.0 | 964.0 | 956.0 | -54.0 | -8.0 | | 5mm大板 | | | ...

Rebar Steel - The rebar futures contract closed at 3069 CNY/ton, down 48 CNY/ton or 1.54% from the previous trading day, with an increase in open interest by 87,900 contracts [3][12] - Spot prices fell, with Tangshan's ordinary billet price down 20 CNY/ton to 2940 CNY/ton and Hangzhou's Zhongtian rebar price down 40 CNY/ton to 3180 CNY/ton; national construction material transaction volume was 92,200 tons [3][12] - National rebar production decreased by 105,300 tons week-on-week to 1,787,800 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 392,900 tons; social inventory fell by 224,300 tons to 3,387,000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 452,800 tons [3][12] - The supply-demand data appears strong, with many regions experiencing specification shortages, providing strong support for price trends; however, market sentiment remains cautious due to expectations of increased steel mill restarts in January and weakening demand in the off-season [3][12] Iron Ore - The iron ore futures contract closed at 757 CNY/ton, down 12 CNY/ton or 1.6% from the previous trading day, with a trading volume of 320,000 contracts and a reduction in open interest by 1,000 contracts [4][13] - Port inventory of imported iron ore increased by 1,203,600 tons to 161,114,700 tons, while steel mill inventory decreased by 1,500,000 tons to 8,834,000 tons [4][13] - Supply from Australia has stabilized, while Brazil's shipments have decreased; demand is affected by increased annual inspections and the maintenance of 13 blast furnaces [4][13] Coking Coal - The coking coal futures contract closed at 1035 CNY/ton, down 35 CNY/ton or 3.27%, with an increase in open interest by 3,764 contracts [5][14] - Spot prices in Shanxi's Linfen region for lean coal decreased to 895 CNY/ton, while other coal prices also saw declines [5][14] - Supply recovery is slow due to some coal mines being shut down; downstream purchasing sentiment is weak, and procurement is cautious due to reduced profits in coking enterprises [5][14] Coking - The coking futures contract closed at 1491.5 CNY/ton, down 35.5 CNY/ton or 2.32%, with a decrease in open interest by 631 contracts [6][15] - Spot prices for metallurgical coke at the port fell to 1440 CNY/ton, a decrease of 10 CNY/ton [6][15] - The second round of price reductions for coke has begun, with expectations of expanded losses for coking enterprises; steel mills are also increasing maintenance, leading to a decline in demand [6][15] Manganese Silicon - The manganese silicon futures contract closed at 5712 CNY/ton, down 0.49%, with an increase in open interest by 10,182 contracts [7][16] - The main steel procurement price for December was set at 5770 CNY/ton, a decrease of 50 CNY/ton, with procurement volume down by 1,300 tons [7][16] - Production costs remain high, leading to increased willingness to reduce or halt production; inventory levels are at record highs due to weak demand [7][16] Silicon Iron - The silicon iron futures contract closed at 5418 CNY/ton, down 0.88%, with a decrease in open interest by 480 contracts [8][17] - The main steel procurement price for December was set at 5660 CNY/ton, a decrease of 20 CNY/ton, with a slight increase in procurement volume [8][17] - High production costs and weak demand are leading to increased intentions to reduce or halt production, with some companies already ceasing operations [8][17]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|农业策略⽇报 2025-12-12 纸浆盘面异动现行，消息面接续利多 油脂：近期或震荡盘整，关注进一步信息指引 蛋白粕：进口豆溢价成交，双粕或延续震荡 玉米/淀粉：现货上量价格承压，盘面震荡运行 生猪：基本面依旧宽松，价格弱势运行 天然橡胶：宽幅震荡，仍无强驱动 合成橡胶：盘面情绪偏暖 棉花：棉价走强，后续关注库存变动 白糖：短期下方支撑较强 纸浆：盘面异动现行，消息面接续利多 双胶纸：情绪低迷，窄幅震荡 原木：买方接货意愿低迷，原木震荡走弱 风险因素：宏观大幅变动；气候异常；供需超预期变化 【异动品种】 纸浆观点：盘面异动现行，消息面接续利多 逻辑:昨日纸浆期货大幅波动，夜盘期间05合约大幅上涨，一度接近涨 停，随后日盘价格有所回落，但依旧录得显著上涨。从消息面来看，夜盘 盘面异动时并无明显产业消息，在日盘期间银星公布涨价信息。我们认为 昨日的价格异动更多来自于资金端，而非信息面。基本面角度看，近期产 业消息面偏多变化。1、针、阔叶浆在美金盘报价上行，同时国内仍处于 下游生产高峰时期的状态下，价格上涨仍能向下传导。随着内盘针阔价差 的收窄，阔叶浆 ...