尿素日报 | 2025-06-10 需求跟进有限，尿素震荡偏弱 市场分析 价格与基差：2025-06-09，尿素主力收盘1697元/吨（-23）；河南小颗粒出厂价报价：1760 元/吨（0）；山东地区小 颗粒报价：1760元/吨（-70）；江苏地区小颗粒报价：1780元/吨（-70）；小块无烟煤800元/吨（+0），山东基差：63 元/吨（-47）；河南基差：63元/吨（-47）；江苏基差：83元/吨（-47）；尿素生产利润195元/吨（-70），出口利润533 元/吨（+17）。 供应端：截至2025-06-09，企业产能利用率89.43%（0.08%）。样本企业总库存量为103.54 万吨（+5.48），港口样本 库存量为20.50 万吨（+0.00）。 需求端：截至2025-06-09，复合肥产能利用率37.13%（-2.96%）；三聚氰胺产能利用率为64.31%（+1.33%）；尿素 企业预收订单天数5.47日（-0.41）。 需求端表现清淡，下游跟进有限，尿素震荡偏弱。尿素装置检修较少，开工依旧高位运行，供应端偏宽松。煤炭、 天然气等上游原料价格窄幅变动，成本端稳定延续。目前处于农需旺季，但是下游农 ...

聚烯烃日报 行业 日期 2025 年 6 月 10 日 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3037892 028-86630631 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3065843 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 研究员：李金（甲醇） 021-60635730 lijin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3015157 021-60635727 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03134307 能源化工研究团队 研究员：彭婧霖（聚烯烃） 研究员：李捷,CFA（原油燃料油） 研究员：任俊弛（PTA、MEG） 研究员：彭 ...

行业 甲醇日报 日期 2025 年 6 月 10 日 请阅读正文后的声明 每日报告 研究员：李金（甲醇） 021-60635730 lijin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3015157 研究员：任俊弛（PTA、MEG） 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3037892 028-8663 0631 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3065843 研究员：彭婧霖（聚烯烃） 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 研究员：刘悠然（纸浆） 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3031215 021-60635727 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3134307 能源化工研究 ...

棉纺策略日报 宏观方面，一是 6 月美国国债到期，市场存担忧情绪，二是国内宏观利 好政策出台，央行在 6 月 5 日开展 1 万亿元买断式逆回购，来缓冲 市场资金流动性，三是中美关系异动，6 月 5 日晚中美首脑 3 个月内 第一次通电话，预计特朗普即将访问中国，并且启动新一轮中美贸易谈 判，四是 6 月 5 日欧洲央行降息，五是 CFTC 基金持仓净空恢复维持 2.94 万手。基本面来看，国内目前供需形势，本年度商业库存预测 8 月底为 155 万吨，去年是 214 万吨，23 年是 163 万吨，今年显然 商业库存偏紧。对于 09 合约，显然有支撑，所以现货基差偏强，棉花 短期基本面供应是偏紧的，在国内通缩和出口受阻的形势下，棉花整体 表现震荡抗跌的形态。新季度全球今年丰产概率增大，新疆丰产，预计 产量 720-750 万吨，巴西丰产至 395 万吨，美国干旱指数出现拐点 向下，预计单产提升，虽然面积减少，可能产量跟与去年保持持平。消 费端，可变性较大，主要取决于美国对等关税的态度以及美联储降息时 间，跟中国宏观持有积极态度，何时形成共振。短中期来看，进入 6、 7 月为对等关税谈判密集期，市场保持观望情 ...

BR 日报 【银河期货】丁二烯橡胶每日早盘观察（25-06-10） 【市场情况】 BR 丁二烯橡胶相关：BR 主力 08 合约报收 11040 点，下跌-65 点或- 0.59%。截至前日 18 时，山东地区大庆石化顺丁报收 11500 元/吨，山东民营顺丁 报收 11400-11500 元/吨，华东市场扬子石化顺丁报收 11500 元/吨，华南地区茂 名石化顺丁报收 11600 元/吨。山东地区抚顺石化丁苯 1502 报收 11600 元/吨。山 东地区丁二烯报收 9470-9600 元/吨。 RU/NR 天然橡胶相关：RU 主力 09 合约报收 13670 点，下跌-55 点或- 0.40%。截至前日 12 时，销地 WF 报收 13550-13650 元/吨，越南 3L 混合报收 14900-14950 元/吨。NR 主力 08 合约报收 11915 点，下跌-40 点或-0.33%；新加 坡 TF 主力 08 合约报收 160.8 点，上涨+0.7 点或+0.44%。截至前日 18 时，泰标 近港船货报收 1690-1700 美元/吨，泰混近港船货报收 1680-1700 美元/吨，人民 币混合胶现货 ...

2025年06月10日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-黑色系列 观点与策略 | 铁矿石：震荡反复 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 螺纹钢：需求预期走弱，低位震荡 | 3 | | 热轧卷板：需求预期走弱，低位震荡 | 3 | | 硅铁：宽幅震荡 | 5 | | 锰硅：宽幅震荡 | 5 | | 焦炭：宽幅震荡 | 7 | | 焦煤：宽幅震荡 | 7 | | 动力煤：需求仍待释放，宽幅震荡 | 9 | | 原木：震荡反复 | 10 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 所 商 品 研 究 2025 年 6 月 10 日 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 【基本面跟踪】 铁矿石基本面数据 | | | | 昨日收盘价(元/吨) | 涨跌(元/吨) | 涨跌幅 -0.64% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货 | 12509 | | 703. 0 | -4.5 | | | | | | | 昨日持仓(手) | 持仓变动(手) | | | | | | 719.741 | -4.428 | | | | ...

2025年06月10日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-能源化工 观点与策略 | 对二甲苯：中期趋势偏弱 | 2 | | --- | --- | | PTA：需求转淡，中期趋势偏弱 | 2 | | MEG：多PTA空MEG | 2 | | 橡胶：震荡运行 | 4 | | 合成橡胶：震荡运行 | 6 | | 沥青：跟随原油震荡偏强 | 8 | | LLDPE：短期震荡，后期仍有压力 | 10 | | PP：现货维稳，刚需成交 | 12 | | 烧碱：高利润背景下估值承压 | 13 | | 纸浆：震荡运行 | 15 | | 玻璃：原片价格平稳 | 17 | | 甲醇：短期反弹，中期压力仍偏大 | 18 | | 尿素：弱势运行 | 20 | | 苯乙烯：短期震荡 | 22 | | 纯碱：现货市场变化不大 | 23 | | LPG：短期震荡运行 | 24 | | PVC：趋势仍有压力 | 27 | | 燃料油：日盘偏弱，短期将进入调整走势 | 29 | | 低硫燃料油：震荡走势为主，外盘现货高低硫价差延续上行趋势 | 29 | | 集运指数（欧线）：高位震荡；10-12反套持有 | 30 | | 短纤：短期震荡，中期偏弱 ...

Core Insights - The article discusses the significant recovery of U.S. winter wheat ratings, which have reached a six-year high after starting the season with the "second worst" ratings in history [1] - The market is currently facing dual pressures from strong rainfall threats and record-high export sales, raising questions about future market directions [1] Group 1 - U.S. winter wheat ratings have improved dramatically, indicating a strong recovery in crop conditions [1] - The initial poor ratings at the start of the season highlight the volatility and unpredictability of agricultural markets [1] - The combination of adverse weather conditions and high export sales creates a complex market environment for stakeholders [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The domestic Shanghai rubber futures contract 2509 is expected to maintain a stable and fluctuating trend. The methanol futures contract 2509 may show a slightly stronger fluctuating trend. Crude oil futures prices at home and abroad are likely to maintain a slightly stronger fluctuating trend [4][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Industry Dynamics Rubber - As of June 1, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 609,700 tons, a decrease of 5,000 tons or 0.80% from the previous period. The inventory in the bonded area was 86,900 tons, a decrease of 3.99%, and the general trade inventory was 522,800 tons, a decrease of 0.25%. - As of the week of June 6, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 64.05%, a decrease of 8.46 percentage points from the previous week and 16.12 percentage points from the same period last year. The capacity utilization rate of China's all - steel tire sample enterprises was 55.65%, a decrease of 5.15 percentage points from the previous week and 5.94 percentage points from the same period last year. - In May 2025, the inventory warning index of Chinese automobile dealers was 52.7%, a decrease of 5.5 percentage points from the same period last year and 7.1 percentage points from the previous month. - In May 2025, the China Logistics Prosperity Index was 50.6%, a slight decrease of 0.5 percentage points from the previous month. The China Warehousing Index was 50.5%, a slight decrease of 0.2 percentage points from the previous month. - In May 2025, about 83,000 heavy - duty trucks were sold in China, a slight decrease of 5% from April and an increase of about 6% from the same period last year. From January to May 2025, the cumulative sales of heavy - duty trucks in China were about 435,500, a slight increase of about 1% year - on - year [8][9]. Methanol - As of the week of June 6, 2025, the average domestic methanol operating rate was 83.33%, a slight increase of 0.38% week - on - week, a slight decrease of 0.81% month - on - month, and a significant increase of 10.55% from the same period last year. The average weekly methanol output in China reached 1.9859 million tons, a slight increase of 19,200 tons week - on - week, a significant decrease of 71,900 tons month - on - month, and a significant increase of 290,900 tons from the same period last year. - As of the week of June 6, 2025, the domestic formaldehyde operating rate was 29.40%, a slight increase of 0.01% week - on - week. The dimethyl ether operating rate was 6.03%, a slight decrease of 3.82% week - on - week. The acetic acid operating rate was 87.82%, a slight increase of 3.90% week - on - week. The MTBE operating rate was 45.09%, a significant increase of 5.30% week - on - week. - As of the week of June 6, 2025, the average operating load of domestic coal (methanol) to olefin plants was 80.97%, a slight increase of 1.06 percentage points week - on - week and a significant increase of 4.24 percentage points month - on - month. As of June 6, 2025, the futures market profit of domestic methanol to olefin was 133 yuan/ton, a significant decrease of 118 yuan/ton week - on - week and a significant decrease of 205 yuan/ton month - on - month. - As of the week of June 6, 2025, the port methanol inventory in East and South China was 458,400 tons, a significant increase of 64,000 tons week - on - week, a slight increase of 43,300 tons month - on - month, and a slight decrease of 1,800 tons from the same period last year. As of the week of June 5, 2025, the total inland methanol inventory in China reached 370,600 tons, a slight increase of 15,600 tons week - on - week, a significant increase of 66,700 tons month - on - month, and a slight decrease of 22,500 tons from the same period last year [10][11][12]. Crude Oil - As of the week of May 30, 2025, the number of active oil drilling rigs in the United States was 461, a slight decrease of 4 rigs week - on - week and a decrease of 35 rigs from the same period last year. The average daily crude oil production in the United States was 13.408 million barrels, a slight increase of 7,000 barrels per day week - on - week and an increase of 308,000 barrels per day year - on - year. - As of the week of May 30, 2025, the U.S. commercial crude oil inventory (excluding strategic petroleum reserves) reached 436 million barrels, a significant decrease of 4.304 million barrels week - on - week and a significant decrease of 19.863 million barrels from the same period last year. The crude oil inventory in Cushing, Oklahoma, reached 24.086 million barrels, a slight increase of 576,000 barrels week - on - week. The U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) inventory reached 401.8 million barrels, a slight increase of 509,000 barrels week - on - week. The U.S. refinery operating rate was maintained at 93.4%, a slight increase of 3.2 percentage points week - on - week, a slight increase of 4.8 percentage points month - on - month, and a slight decrease of 2.00 percentage points year - on - year. - Since June 2025, international crude oil futures prices have shown a stable and fluctuating trend, and the market's bullish power has increased. As of June 3, 2025, the average non - commercial net long positions in WTI crude oil were maintained at 167,957 contracts, a slight increase of 2,263 contracts week - on - week and a significant decrease of 10,254 contracts or 5.75% from the May average. As of June 3, 2025, the average net long positions of Brent crude oil futures funds were maintained at 155,519 contracts, a significant increase of 7,688 contracts week - on - week and a significant increase of 19,984 contracts or 14.74% from the May average [12][13][14]. 3.2 Spot Price Table | Variety | Spot Price | Change from Previous Day | Futures Main Contract | Change from Previous Day | Basis | Change | | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | | Shanghai Rubber | 13,750 yuan/ton | +200 yuan/ton | 13,725 yuan/ton | +75 yuan/ton | +25 yuan/ton | -75 yuan/ton | | Methanol | 2,340 yuan/ton | -2 yuan/ton | 2,277 yuan/ton | +13 yuan/ton | +63 yuan/ton | -13 yuan/ton | | Crude Oil | 450.7 yuan/barrel | +0.1 yuan/barrel | 474.3 yuan/barrel | +8.2 yuan/barrel | -23.6 yuan/barrel | -8.1 yuan/barrel | [16] 3.3 Related Charts - The report provides various charts related to rubber (such as rubber basis, Shanghai Futures Exchange rubber futures inventory, etc.), methanol (such as methanol basis, methanol domestic port inventory, etc.), and crude oil (such as crude oil basis, U.S. crude oil commercial inventory, etc.) [17][30][43].

大宗商品研究所 沥青研发报告 沥青日报 2025 年 6 月 9 日 沥青日报 第一部分 相关数据 | 名称 | 2025/06/09 | 2025/06/06 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货价格与持仓 | | | | | | BU2507 （主力） | 3488 | 3509 | -21 | -0.60% | | BU2508 | 3505 | 3488 | 17 | 0.49% | | BU2509 | 3488 | 3445 | 43 | 1.25% | | SC2507 | 474.3 | 466.1 | 8.2 | 1.76% | | Brent首行 | 65.62 | 65.20 | 0.4 | 0.64% | | 主力合约持仓/万手 | 20.5 | 8.1 | 12.3 | 151.76% | | 主力合约成交/万手 | 26.4 | 10.7 | 15.7 | 147.32% | | 仓单数量/吨 | 91510 | 91510 | 0 | 0.00% | | 基差月差 | | | | | | BU07-08 | (17.0 ...