Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for several companies in the non-ferrous metals sector, including Zijin Mining, Luoyang Molybdenum, and China Nonferrous Mining [4][6][10]. Core Views - The report highlights a significant increase in the probability of interest rate cuts, which has led to rising prices for both industrial and precious metals. The macroeconomic environment is expected to support metal prices in the second half of the year [2][4]. - Industrial metals are anticipated to benefit from ongoing macroeconomic policy support in China, with a focus on the "14th Five-Year Plan" and continued investment in infrastructure [2][4]. - Precious metals, particularly gold, are expected to see a long-term upward trend due to central bank purchases and weakening US dollar credit [4][6]. Summary by Sections Industrial Metals - Copper prices have been affected by the US imposing a 50% tariff on semi-finished copper, leading to a significant drop in COMEX copper prices. However, domestic demand is showing signs of recovery with an increase in the operating rate of copper rod enterprises to 71.73% [2][4]. - Aluminum production capacity remains stable, but demand is weak due to seasonal factors, with social inventory increasing to 544,000 tons [2][4]. - Key companies recommended include Zijin Mining, Luoyang Molybdenum, and China Nonferrous Mining [2][4]. Energy Metals - Cobalt prices are expected to rise due to the impact of the Democratic Republic of Congo's mining ban, while lithium prices have seen a rapid decline amid cautious market sentiment [3][4]. - Nickel prices are projected to remain strong due to low inventory levels and increased purchasing activity from downstream sectors [3][4]. - Recommended companies include Huayou Cobalt and Zangge Mining [3][4]. Precious Metals - Gold prices are expected to rise due to strong central bank purchases and a favorable macroeconomic environment, with the report highlighting a long-term upward trend for gold prices [4][6]. - Silver prices are also expected to increase, driven by industrial demand and recovery in the market [4][6]. - Key companies recommended include Shandong Gold, Zhongjin Gold, and Zijin Mining [4][6].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Palm oil: The domestic macro sentiment pushed palm oil to a three - year high, but the fundamentals lack continuous drivers. The market is trading the de - stocking scenario in the second half of the year. Malaysia is expected to continue the inventory accumulation trend in July, but it is conservatively estimated not to exceed 2.2 million tons. The B50 rumor in Indonesia has a low correlation with the price increase. The international oil market may see a systematic upward trend due to reduced export supply, and palm oil is sensitive to this. The bean - palm spread is unlikely to return to par this year, and opportunities to go long on palm oil at low levels should be continuously monitored [2][3]. - Soybean oil: The continuous good rainfall in the Midwest of the United States in mid - to - late July is beneficial for improving the yield per unit. Before the USDA August report, CBOT soybeans will maintain a weak fluctuation if there is no more positive progress in Sino - US trade negotiations. The large number of domestic soybean oil export orders has reversed the weak situation, and if this trend continues, it is expected to drive the domestic bean - palm spread closer to the international one [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Last Week's Viewpoints and Logic - Palm oil: The domestic macro sentiment pushed palm oil to a three - year high, but the fundamentals lack continuous drivers. Without a strong supply theme, the high price needs strong downstream demand to support it. With weak demand from India, the price at the high level was difficult to rise further. The palm oil 09 contract fell 0.29% last week [1]. - Soybean oil: A large number of domestic soybean oil export orders ignited the trading enthusiasm. The bean - palm spread narrowed significantly, and soybean oil showed signs of a catch - up rise. The soybean oil 09 contract rose 1.6% last week [1]. 3.2 This Week's Viewpoints and Logic 3.2.1 Palm oil - Fundamental analysis: After the slight increase in inventory in the MPOB June report, the negative impact was digested, and the price rebounded. It is estimated that the production in July will still be difficult to reach 1.8 million tons, and the export volume in the first 25 days was poor, estimated to be less than 1.4 million tons. The demand in the producing areas is expected to remain high, and Malaysia will continue the inventory accumulation trend, but not exceed 2.2 million tons. In Indonesia, the price of various palm oils is high, and the market is quite resistant to price drops. The B50 rumor has a low correlation with the price increase. The production recovery may fall short of expectations, and the inventory will remain below 3 million tons throughout the year. The US biodiesel policy will lead to a reduction in the supply of US soybean oil in the international market, which will drive up the international oil market, and palm oil may be affected [2]. - Market sentiment and trading opportunities: The market has different views on the palm oil production in Malaysia this year. If the production in July - August maintains a good yield per unit, there will be a large inventory accumulation pressure in August - September. If the inventory in Malaysia does not exceed 2.3 million tons, the market may have digested the high - point inventory. If the inventory accumulation in August - September exceeds expectations, palm oil may still have room for correction, but attention should be paid to the potential positive sentiment caused by lower - than - expected production in July - August [2][3]. - Sales area analysis: Except for sunflower oil, the import profit of crude palm oil is higher than that of crude soybean oil. The reconstruction of channel inventory is in progress. As long as the monthly import volume can be maintained above 800,000 tons, the inventory of Malaysian palm oil is difficult to exceed 2.3 million tons. The current fundamentals in the producing areas are not sufficient to stimulate China to open commercial profits, and the bean - palm spread is difficult to return to par [2]. 3.2.2 Soybean oil - International situation: Good rainfall in the Midwest of the United States in mid - to - late July is beneficial for improving the yield per unit. Before the USDA August report, CBOT soybeans will maintain a weak fluctuation if there is no more positive progress in Sino - US trade negotiations. Only positive news from Sino - US trade negotiations can drive up the price of US soybeans [4]. - Domestic situation: The large number of domestic soybean oil export orders has reversed the weak situation. Although the domestic apparent demand for pick - up is poor, oil mills are actively exporting. If this trend continues, it is expected to drive the domestic bean - palm spread closer to the international one. If the purchase of US soybeans for the October shipment has not been made, there is potential for the spread between months and the Brazilian premium to rise, and soybean oil may benefit [4]. 3.3 Disk Basic Market Data - Futures prices: The palm oil main - continuous contract closed at 8,910 yuan/ton, down 0.29%; the soybean oil main - continuous contract closed at 8,274 yuan/ton, up 1.6%; the rapeseed oil main - continuous contract closed at 9,524 yuan/ton, up 0.71%; the Malaysian palm oil main - continuous contract closed at 4,245 ringgit/ton, down 0.72%; the CBOT soybean oil main - continuous contract closed at 53.90 cents/pound, down 3.61% [8]. - Trading volume and open interest: The trading volume of the palm oil main - continuous contract was 2,707,492 lots, a decrease of 767,521 lots; the open interest was 394,141 lots, a decrease of 62,307 lots. The trading volume of the soybean oil main - continuous contract was 3,475,013 lots, a decrease of 47,548 lots; the open interest was 499,756 lots, a decrease of 4,882 lots [8]. - Spreads: The rapeseed - soybean 09 spread was 1,250 yuan/ton, down 4.8%; the bean - palm 09 spread was 363 yuan/ton, up 19.7%. The palm oil 9 - 1 spread was - 20 yuan/ton, down 350%; the soybean oil 9 - 1 spread was 48 yuan/ton, up 20%; the rapeseed oil 9 - 1 spread was 58 yuan/ton, up 3.57% [8]. - Warehouse receipts: The number of palm oil warehouse receipts was 570 lots, an increase of 570 lots; the number of soybean oil warehouse receipts was 3,000 lots, a decrease of 18,495 lots; the number of rapeseed oil warehouse receipts was 3,487 lots, with no change [8]. 3.4 Oil Fundamental Information - Production and inventory: Malaysia's palm oil production is expected to recover in July, and the inventory is expected to continue to increase. Indonesia's inventory is expected to remain low after the second quarter, and the price difference between Indonesia and Malaysia remains high [10][13]. - Export and import: ITS estimates that Malaysia's palm oil exports from July 1 - 31 were 1.289727 million tons, a 6.71% decrease compared to the same period last month. The EU's cumulative imports of palm oil in 2025 decreased by 330,000 tons, and the cumulative imports of four major oils decreased by 640,000 tons [13][15]. - Other indicators: The POGO spread rebounded significantly, the import profit of Indian palm oil started to improve, and the basis of palm oil (South China) for 09 was - 20, while the basis of soybean oil (Jiangsu) rebounded [11][13][15].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that the A-share market is experiencing a significant shift, with a recommendation to moderately reduce positions due to anticipated volatility and risks [3][5]. - The market saw a decline in major indices, with the CSI 300 index down by 1.75%, the Shanghai Composite Index down by 0.94%, and the CSI 500 index down by 1.37% [3]. - The fundamental factors affecting the market include unexpected challenges in the US-China economic relations and a slight decline in China's official PMI data, leading to a cautious outlook for the Chinese economy in the second half of the year [3][5]. Group 2 - Institutional caution is increasing, as indicated by weakening fund flow indicators, suggesting a potential continuation of market adjustments [4][5]. - The recent non-farm payroll data from the US has shown significant weakness over the past three months, reinforcing concerns about the US economic outlook [3][5]. - The recommendation for the main board is to reduce positions to a medium level in response to the market's changing signals, while the small-cap sector should also follow suit due to its high beta characteristics [7]. Group 3 - There is a notable correlation between the market's significant adjustment and the timing of a new product subscription window for a quantitative private equity fund, although the actual impact on the market was limited [8].

Group 1 - The core objective of the Trump administration is to pressure China regarding its reliance on oil from Russia and Iran, which is closely tied to ongoing US-China trade negotiations [1][3] - The recent US-China economic talks in Sweden did not result in a substantial agreement, highlighting the complexities of the relationship and the unreliability of verbal commitments [3][7] - The Trump administration's strategy aims to force China to purchase more US oil to alleviate the US trade deficit, leveraging the higher prices of US oil compared to Russian and Iranian oil [3][5] Group 2 - China maintains a firm stance on its right to choose oil suppliers and refuses to be constrained by US demands, emphasizing its independence in energy sourcing [5][7] - The Trump administration's approach mirrors previous trade agreements with Japan, the UK, and the EU, where countries accepted US tariffs in exchange for commitments to purchase US goods and energy [5][7] - Following the Sweden talks, Trump may delay decisions on extending tariff relief until after August 12, potentially waiting for Russia's response regarding the Ukraine conflict [7]

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 棉花早报——2025年8月1日 大越期货投资咨询部 王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询证号： Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 前日回顾 2 每日提示 3 4 5 今日关注 基本面数据 持仓数据 棉花： 1、基本面：ICAC7月报：25/26年度产量2590万吨，消费2560万吨。USDA7月报：25/26年 度产量2578.3万吨，消费2571.8万吨，期末库存1683.5万吨。海关：6月纺织品服装出口 273.1亿美元，同比下降0.1%。6月份我国棉花进口3万吨，同比减少82.1%；棉纱进口11万 吨，同比增加0.1%。农村部7月25/26年度：产量625万吨，进口140万吨，消费740万吨， 期末库存823万吨。中性。 6：预期：中美贸易谈判继续延后，关税暂时维持现状。郑棉主力即将换月01，近期下跌 09跌 ...

这一改此前人民币兑美元汇率升值的行情。在"对等关税"公布后，离岸人民币兑美元汇率一路由7.4升至7.17，两 个月内上涨3%。 截至7月31日收盘，在岸、离岸人民币兑美元汇率报7.193、7.2019；人民币兑美元即期汇率连续五日下探，7月累 计下跌0.38% 文｜《财经》记者 康恺 编辑｜张威 在升破7.15关口后，人民币兑美元汇率掉头向下、持续走跌，并于7月31日收报两个月新低。 截至7月31日收盘，在岸、离岸人民币兑美元汇率报7.193、7.2019。截至当日，人民币兑美元即期汇率连续五日下 探，7月累计下跌0.38%。 当日，人民币兑美元汇率中间价亦下跌，报7.1494。该值较市场预测偏强水平则扩至近570点，为5月上旬以来最 大偏离。 此前一日，截至7月30日收盘，在岸人民币兑美元汇率微跌58点至7.1823，为7月9日以来新低。同日，离岸人民币 兑美元汇率收报7.186，盘中曾下跌64点至近两周新低。 从汇率市场来看，美元指数上涨是背后的重要推动力。当地时间7月30日，美元指数收创两个月新高，接近100的 关键点位。 与人民币一同，近期欧元等非美货币同样走低。截至北京时间7月31日18时，欧元兑美 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Buy**: Bean oil, Palm oil, Rapeseed oil [1] - **Neutral**: Soybean, Soybean meal, Rapeseed meal [1] - **Sell**: Live pigs, Eggs [1] Core Views - The overall commodity market in China is experiencing a decline, with anti - involution related varieties falling and market sentiment cooling. Attention should be paid to weather and policy guidance in the short term [2][4] - The Fed's July interest - rate meeting maintained the interest rate, and the third round of Sino - US economic and trade negotiations suspended the addition of tariffs. The weather in the US soybean - producing areas is good, and the soybean has a high excellent rate, which may lead to an early bumper harvest [3] - For soybean oil and palm oil, a strategy of buying on dips is maintained, and caution should be exercised regarding the short - term situation of strong oil and weak meal [4] - For eggs, if the egg price can complete capacity reduction through price decline in the second half of this year, there may be a cyclical reversal [9] Summary by Category Soybean - The main contract of domestic soybeans reduced positions and the price pulled back. The market sentiment cooled, and there were policies on two - way purchase and sale. Short - term attention should be paid to precipitation in the Northeast and the weather in the US Midwest [2] Soybean & Soybean Meal - The commodity market declined. The Fed maintained the interest rate, and Sino - US trade negotiations were the focus. The US soybean has a high excellent rate, and the domestic soybean meal inventory is gradually increasing. The market is expected to be volatile [3] Soybean Oil & Palm Oil - Domestic soybean oil and palm oil reduced positions and adjusted. The US soybean oil is in a sideways shock, and the oil - meal ratio is at a historical high. A strategy of buying on dips is maintained [4] Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil - Rapeseed - related contracts fell, and the main contract positions declined slightly. Rapeseed meal pulled back 1.3% today. Short - term strategy is to wait and see [6] Corn - The corn futures continued to be weak in a shock. There were corn auctions, and the US corn has a high excellent rate. The Dalian corn futures may continue to be weak at the bottom [7] Live Pigs - The live pig futures fell sharply. The supply is sufficient in the medium - term, and the probability of a decline after the peak is high. It is recommended for the industry to hedge on rallies [8] Eggs - The egg futures fell, and the off - season contracts broke through the support level. If the egg price can reduce capacity in the second half of the year, there may be a cyclical reversal next year [9]

Group 1: PMI Trends - July manufacturing PMI decreased to 49.3%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous value, indicating a contraction for the fourth consecutive month[2] - Non-manufacturing PMI fell to 50.1%, a decline of 0.4 percentage points, with service and construction sectors dropping by 0.1 and 2.2 percentage points respectively[2] - Composite PMI output index decreased by 0.5 percentage points to 50.2%, suggesting a slowdown in overall economic expansion[2] Group 2: Supply and Demand Signals - July PMI production index was 50.5%, down 0.5 percentage points, indicating continued expansion but with weakening demand[3] - New orders index fell by 0.8 percentage points to 49.4%, entering contraction territory, with new export orders down by 0.6 percentage points[3] - New export orders index dropped to 47.1%, remaining in contraction, while import orders held steady at 47.8%[3] Group 3: Price and Employment Insights - Price indices rebounded, with raw material and factory price indices rising by 3.1 and 2.1 percentage points respectively, indicating a narrowing decline in PPI[4] - Employment pressure eased slightly, with manufacturing, service, and construction employment indices increasing by 0.1, 0.0, and 1.0 percentage points respectively[4] - Service sector PMI fell to 50.0%, while construction PMI dropped 2.2 percentage points to 50.6%, the second-lowest this year[6] Group 4: Economic Outlook - The July Politburo meeting indicated a focus on policy implementation, with potential new policies expected but not strong stimulus measures[6] - Economic pressures are anticipated to increase in the second half of the year, particularly in August and September, due to prior "export rush" effects and short-term contraction[6] - Continued monitoring of US-China trade negotiations is advised, as potential developments may impact market conditions[6]

Market Overview - The bond market continued its warm trend on July 31, with the release of the July official PMI data not exerting pressure on the performance of bonds, leading to an overall increase in government bond futures and a general decline in interbank bond yields by approximately 2 basis points [1][2] - The People's Bank of China conducted a net withdrawal of 47.8 billion yuan in the open market, while the overall funding situation remained stable, with a slight increase in overnight repurchase rates at the month-end [1][5] Bond Futures and Yields - Government bond futures closed higher across the board, with the 30-year main contract rising by 0.57% to 119.120, the 10-year main contract up by 0.17% to 108.485, and the 5-year main contract increasing by 0.08% to 105.725 [2] - The yields on major interbank bonds saw a slight decrease, with the 10-year government bond yield down nearly 2 basis points, reported at 1.786% for "25国开10" and 1.703% for "25附息国债11" [2] International Bond Market - In North America, U.S. Treasury yields collectively rose on July 30, with the 2-year yield increasing by 7.38 basis points to 3.941% and the 10-year yield rising by 4.57 basis points to 4.368% [3] - In the Eurozone, the 10-year French bond yield fell by 0.5 basis points to 3.357%, while the 10-year German bond yield decreased by 0.3 basis points to 2.703% [3] Primary Market - The China Development Bank's financial bonds for 1-year, 5-year, and 10-year terms had winning yields of 1.3677%, 1.6187%, and 1.7341%, respectively, with bid-to-cover ratios of 4.15, 4.49, and 3.52 [4] Funding Conditions - The People's Bank of China announced a fixed-rate reverse repurchase operation of 283.2 billion yuan at an interest rate of 1.40%, with the same amount being the winning bid [5] - The Shibor rates for short-term products mostly declined, with the overnight rate increasing by 7.5 basis points to 1.392% [5] Economic Indicators - The official non-manufacturing PMI for July was reported at 50.1, a decrease of 0.4 percentage points, while the manufacturing PMI fell to 49.3, also down by 0.4 percentage points, indicating a slight contraction in manufacturing activity [6] - The comprehensive PMI output index was at 50.2, down 0.5 percentage points, but still above the critical point, suggesting overall expansion in business activities [6] Institutional Insights - Huatai Securities noted that the political bureau meeting's cautious stance on real estate and anti-involution reflects a long-term planning focus rather than short-term stimulus [7] - China Galaxy Securities indicated limited incremental changes from the political bureau meeting, suggesting a downward trend in bond yields, while monitoring risk preferences and government bond supply [7] - CICC highlighted the potential for fiscal policy adjustments in the fourth quarter, with a positive outlook for the bond market in the second half of the year [7]

Group 1 - The international gold price has shown a slight recovery after testing the support level around $3300, ending a four-day decline [1] - Market focus is on the outcomes of the US-China trade negotiations and the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting, with expectations of relative stability until these results are announced [1] - Recent agreements on tariffs between the US, Japan, and the EU have led to a decrease in market risk aversion, potentially stabilizing gold prices [1] Group 2 - In the short term, gold prices are expected to fluctuate within the $3305-$3335 range, with potential downward support at $3280 and $3250, and upward resistance at $3350-$3355 [2] - The outcome of the battle for the $3350 level will be crucial for determining the future price trajectory of gold [2]