Group 1 - The Australian dollar (AUD) against the US dollar (USD) has shown a positive trend, rising above 0.6500, with the latest exchange rate at 0.6505, reflecting a 0.28% increase. This rise is attributed to optimistic signals in international trade, particularly regarding a potential trade agreement between the US and China [1] - US President Trump indicated that implementing comprehensive tariffs on China is not sustainable and expressed hope for a high-quality agreement between the two nations. However, he warned of a potential 155% tariff if negotiations fail, making the upcoming US-China trade talks a focal point for the market [1] - The US government shutdown has entered its 22nd day, with the Senate failing to pass a funding bill for the 11th time, indicating a continued legislative deadlock [1] Group 2 - Market attention is shifting towards the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data set to be released on October 24, with expectations of a 0.4% month-on-month increase and a 3.1% year-on-year rise. Additionally, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting on October 29 is anticipated to result in a 25 basis point rate cut, which may further influence the AUD's performance [2] - Technical analysis indicates that the AUD/USD exchange rate has gained some bullish momentum, supported by the stability of the current support level at 0.6475. However, the negative pressure from trading below the EMA50 continues to limit recovery opportunities in the near term [2] - The AUD/USD has failed to break through the key resistance level of 0.6535, with a lack of new catalysts suggesting a potential for continued volatility in the short term. Analysts have identified support levels at 0.6440 and 0.6415, and resistance levels at 0.6535 and 0.6630, indicating the need for investors to monitor upcoming catalysts [2]

具体走势上，金价自亚市开于4354.42美元/盎司，先行录得日内高点4375.09美元，之后遇阻回落，一路 走低，延续到美盘22点半时段触及日内低点4082.92美元，就此触底回升后，又回撤保持低位震荡走 盘，最终收于4124.76美元，日振幅292.17美元，收跌229.66美元，跌幅5.27%。 上交易日周二(10月21日)：国际黄金巨幅回落走低，一度跌超6.3%，创2013年4月以来最大单日跌幅， 如期验证了上周说道的9转序列，后市短期即将迎来回调风险，也如期在触及上周给出的上升趋势压力 位置遇阻回撤。目前来看，多头动力减弱，在重回4300美元上方持稳前，偏向技术反弹遇阻回调的行情 为主。 展望今日周三(10月22日)：国际黄金开盘继续走低回落，延续昨日空头动力，一方面受到技术的进一步 抛压，另一方面市场对于中美贸易谈判以及美国政府停摆将结束的乐观预期利空压力，那么在停摆结束 落地之前，金价都将维持偏弱回落的走势为主。 等待风险偏好落地或降息预期升温，以及进入下个月时，再去又一次的长线看涨入场。 影响上，市场对于美国政府停摆将结束以及将达成贸易协议的预期，提振了美元，削弱了市场对黄金避 险资产的需求。使 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core View of the Report - Overnight crude oil stabilized and rebounded. The suspension of the meeting between Trump and Putin cast a shadow over the negotiation prospects due to differences in the Ukraine war. The US Energy Department's plan to buy 1 million barrels of crude oil for the Strategic Petroleum Reserve signaled low oil prices, and the significant draw in API crude oil inventory stimulated the price rebound. However, the market still faces many macro - shocks such as Sino - US trade negotiations, and short - term oil prices are expected to run at a low level. SC2512 is expected to trade in the range of 435 - 445, and long - term investors are advised to stay on the sidelines [3]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Daily Tips - **Fundamentals**: The Trump - Putin summit was postponed due to the Ukraine issue, and the US Energy Department plans to buy 1 million barrels of crude oil for the SPR. Trump rejected the Democrats' meeting request. Overall, it is neutral [3]. - **Basis**: On October 21, the spot price of Oman crude oil was $62.47 per barrel, and that of Qatar Marine crude oil was $61.24 per barrel. The basis was 29.53 yuan/barrel, with the spot at a premium to the futures, which is bullish [3]. - **Inventory**: The US API crude oil inventory decreased by 2.981 million barrels in the week ending October 17, while the EIA inventory increased by 3.524 million barrels in the week ending October 10 (expected to increase by 0.288 million barrels). Cushing area inventory decreased by 0.703 million barrels in the week ending October 10. As of October 21, the Shanghai crude oil futures inventory remained unchanged at 5.211 million barrels, which is bearish [3]. - **Market Chart**: The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the price is below the moving average, which is bearish [3]. - **Main Position**: As of September 23, the long positions in WTI crude oil increased, and as of October 14, the long positions in Brent crude oil decreased, which is bearish [3]. - **Expectation**: Short - term oil prices are expected to run at a low level, and SC2512 is expected to trade in the range of 435 - 445, with long - term investors advised to stay on the sidelines [3]. 3.2 Recent News - The Trump - Putin summit was postponed due to Russia's refusal to immediately cease fire in Ukraine, and a White House official said Trump has no plan to meet Putin in the near future [5]. - The EU Trade Commissioner invited China's Commerce Minister to visit Brussels to find an "urgent solution" to China's tightened rare - earth export restrictions. China hopes the EU will urge the Netherlands to solve the Anshi Semiconductor issue, and both sides exchanged views on the EU's anti - subsidy case against Chinese electric vehicles [5]. - Reliance Industries, India's largest private refiner, has accelerated crude oil purchases from the Middle East due to uncertain Russian crude oil exports to India, and has bought at least 2.5 million barrels of crude oil from the Gulf region recently [5]. - UBS expects oil prices to stabilize around the current level, but if trade tensions escalate, oil prices may face pressure. UBS believes the oil market is in a supply glut, but not as extreme as the IEA's forecast [5]. 3.3 Bullish and Bearish Concerns - **Bullish factors**: The threat of the Russia - Ukraine conflict to refineries and oil fields, and the mitigation of Trump's tariff threats [6]. - **Bearish factors**: Easing of the Middle East situation, the risk of a US government shutdown, and OPEC+ considering further production increases [6]. - **Market Drivers**: Short - term geopolitical conflicts are weakening, and there is a medium - to - long - term risk of increased supply [6]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Futures Quotes**: The settlement price of Brent crude oil decreased by $0.03 ( - 0.05%), WTI crude oil decreased by $0.09 ( - 0.16%), SC crude oil increased by 1.70 (0.39%), and Oman crude oil increased by $0.19 (0.31%) [7]. - **Spot Quotes**: The price of UK Brent Dtd increased by $0.65 (1.07%), WTI decreased by $0.28 ( - 0.49%), Oman crude oil decreased by $1.32 ( - 2.08%), Shengli crude oil decreased by $0.03 ( - 0.05%), and Dubai crude oil increased by $0.29 (0.47%) [9]. - **Inventory Data**: API crude oil inventory decreased by 2.981 million barrels in the week ending October 17, and EIA inventory increased by 3.524 million barrels in the week ending October 10 [3]. 3.5 Position Data - **WTI Crude Oil Fund Net Long Position**: As of September 23, the net long position was 102,958, an increase of 4,249 [17]. - **Brent Crude Oil Fund Net Long Position**: As of October 14, the net long position was 109,606, a decrease of 37,794 [19].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall fundamentals of LLDPE and PP are bearish, with the plastics and PP main contracts expected to fluctuate weakly today. The long - term "supply increase and demand decrease" pattern of crude oil remains unchanged, and the cost - side support for polyolefins is limited. The outcome of Sino - US trade negotiations is uncertain, and oil prices are continuously falling [4][6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs LLDPE Overview - **Fundamentals**: In September, the official PMI was 49.8, up 0.4 percentage points from the previous month. The manufacturing prosperity improved but was still in the contraction range. The long - term "supply increase and demand decrease" pattern of crude oil remained unchanged, and the cost - side support for polyolefins was limited. On the 18th, Sino - US economic and trade leaders held a video call, and there was still uncertainty in Sino - US trade negotiations, causing oil prices to fall. On the supply - demand side, the agricultural film operation was stable with a slight increase in the start - up rate, and the demand for other films was good as Double 11 approached. The current LLDPE delivery product spot price was 6920 (+0), and the overall fundamentals were bearish [4]. - **Basis**: The basis of the LLDPE 2601 contract was 41, and the premium - discount ratio was 0.6%, which was bullish [4]. - **Inventory**: The comprehensive PE inventory was 58.0 tons (+3.7), which was neutral [4]. - **Disk**: The 20 - day moving average of the LLDPE main contract was downward, and the closing price was below the 20 - day line, which was bearish [4]. - **Main Position**: The net long position of the LLDPE main contract decreased, which was bullish [4]. - **Expectation**: The LLDPE main contract was expected to fluctuate weakly. With the decline in crude oil prices, stable operation of the agricultural film industry, and a moderately high industrial inventory, the PE was expected to fluctuate weakly today [4]. - **Positive Factors**: The demand in the peak season increased month - on - month [5]. - **Negative Factors**: The demand was weak year - on - year, there were many new production projects in the fourth quarter, and there were Sino - US trade risks [5]. - **Main Logic**: Cost and demand were driven by domestic macro - policies [5]. PP Overview - **Fundamentals**: In September, the official PMI was 49.8, up 0.4 percentage points from the previous month. The manufacturing prosperity improved but was still in the contraction range. The long - term "supply increase and demand decrease" pattern of crude oil remained unchanged, and the cost - side support for polyolefins was limited. On the 18th, Sino - US economic and trade leaders held a video call, and there was still uncertainty in Sino - US trade negotiations, causing oil prices to fall. On the supply - demand side, plastic weaving was supported by the peak season and performed well, while the demand for pipes increased but was still weak year - on - year. The current PP delivery product spot price was 6550 (-0), and the overall fundamentals were bearish [6]. - **Basis**: The basis of the PP 2601 contract was - 15, and the premium - discount ratio was - 0.2%, which was neutral [6]. - **Inventory**: The comprehensive PP inventory was 67.9 tons (-0.3), which was bearish [6]. - **Disk**: The 20 - day moving average of the PP main contract was downward, and the closing price was below the 20 - day line, which was bearish [6]. - **Main Position**: The net short position of the PP main contract decreased, which was bearish [6]. - **Expectation**: The PP main contract was expected to fluctuate weakly. With the decline in crude oil prices, the launch of new production capacity, the maintenance of the average downstream start - up rate, and a moderately high industrial inventory, the PP was expected to fluctuate weakly today [6]. - **Positive Factors**: The demand in the peak season increased month - on - month [7]. - **Negative Factors**: The demand was weak year - on - year, there were many new production projects in the fourth quarter, and there were Sino - US trade risks [7]. - **Main Logic**: Cost and demand were driven by domestic macro - policies [7]. Spot and Futures Market Data - **LLDPE**: The spot delivery product price was 6920 (unchanged), the 01 - contract price was 6879 (+5), the basis was 41 (-5), the comprehensive PE factory inventory was 58.0 tons, and the social PE inventory was 54.6 tons [8]. - **PP**: The spot delivery product price was 6550 (unchanged), the 01 - contract price was 6565 (+14), the basis was - 15 (-14), the comprehensive PP factory inventory was 67.9 tons, and the social PP inventory was 34.9 tons [8]. Supply - Demand Balance Sheets - **Polyethylene**: From 2018 to 2024, the production capacity, output, and apparent consumption generally showed an upward trend, with the production capacity growth rate reaching 20.5% in 2025E [12]. - **Polypropylene**: From 2018 to 2024, the production capacity, output, and apparent consumption generally increased, with the production capacity growth rate expected to be 11.0% in 2025E [14].

有色金属日报 2025-10-22 五矿期货早报 | 有色金属 曾宇轲 从业资格号：F03121027 交易咨询号：Z0023147 0755-23375139 zengyuke@wkqh.cn 张世骄 从业资格号：F03120988 0755-23375122 zhangsj3@wkqh.cn 王梓铧 从业资格号：F03130785 0755-23375132 wangzh7@wkqh.cn 刘显杰 从业资格号：F03130746 0755-23375125 liuxianjie@wkqh.cn 陈逸 铜 【行情资讯】 吴坤金 从业资格号：F3036210 交易咨询号：Z0015924 0755-23375135 wukj1@wkqh.cn 从业资格号：F03137504 0755-23375125 cheny40@wkqh.cn 贵金属价格大幅调整，美元指数反弹，铜价震荡回调，昨日伦铜 3M 合约收跌 1.08%至 10596 美元/ 吨，沪铜主力合约收至 85020 元/吨。LME 铜库存减少 25 至 137150 吨，注销仓单比例提高，Cash/3M 维持贴水。国内上期所仓单减少 0.4 至 3.8 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Gold: Expected to decline further, with prices entering a phase of long - short competition and increased market volatility [13][14] - US Dollar Index: Expected to strengthen [17][18] - US Stock Index Futures: Expected to improve risk appetite, but with continued high volatility, recommended to take a bullish approach and buy on dips [20] - Treasury Bonds: In the short - term, trading should be cautious. Later, opportunities to buy on dips for medium - term long positions can be sought [22][23] - Sugar: Expected to show weak oscillations, not recommended to short aggressively [28] - Soybean Meal: Expected to remain weak in the short term [30] - Steel: Recommended to approach prices with an oscillatory mindset [32][33] - Vegetable Oils: Recommended to wait for market drivers and take a short - term wait - and - see approach or hold light long positions [34] - Corn Starch: The price difference between rice and flour in contracts 01 and 03 is expected to have limited room for further narrowing [35] - Corn: Short - term recommended to wait and see, not advisable to short [37] - Red Dates: Recommended to wait and see, focus on price competition in production areas and downstream consumption [40] - Thermal Coal: Prices are expected to strengthen due to supply - demand resonance [41] - Iron Ore: Overall trend is expected to be weak, but short - term decline may not be smooth [42] - Polysilicon: Maintain the view that spot prices will not decline in October. Consider buying on dips when the futures price is at a discount to the spot price, and pay attention to reverse arbitrage opportunities for PS2511 - PS2512 [47] - Industrial Silicon: Buying on dips may be more cost - effective [49] - Lithium Carbonate: Short - term recommended for range trading, mid - term focus on short - selling opportunities after peak demand [51] - Lead: Unilateral trading should be observed with an oscillatory mindset, and mid - term positive arbitrage opportunities between domestic and foreign markets can be considered [53] - Zinc: Unilateral trading recommended to wait and see, focus on mid - term positive arbitrage opportunities, and maintain a positive arbitrage approach for domestic - foreign trading [56] - Crude Oil: Expected to show weak oscillations in the short term [61] - Carbon Emissions: CEA is expected to show weak oscillations in the short term [63] - Methanol: Recommended to wait and see [66] - Pulp: Expected limited upside space for the futures price [68] - Caustic Soda: Not recommended to short aggressively [70][71] - Styrene: The market will oscillate, and attention should be paid to the negative feedback from downstream products of pure benzene [74] - Container Freight Rates: Short - term recommended to approach the market with an oscillatory mindset, not advisable to buy on the rise [76] 2. Core Views - The formulation of a 12 - point peace plan for the Russia - Ukraine conflict by Europe and Ukraine has weakened short - term market risk - aversion sentiment, leading to a stronger US dollar index, but there are still uncertainties in the Russia - Ukraine situation [17] - The decline in gold prices is mainly due to the joint statement of European leaders on supporting a cease - fire in Russia - Ukraine, a softening of Trump's stance on tariffs, and the news of a possible visit to China, which has reduced risk - aversion demand. Gold prices are expected to continue to decline [13] - Multiple small and medium - sized banks have lowered deposit rates, and the bond market is expected to strengthen with oscillations after the implementation of the 14th Five - Year Plan policies [22] - The soybean meal market is trading on the expectation of improved Sino - US relations, and combined with weak supply - demand fundamentals, it is expected to remain weak [30] - Steel prices are oscillating, lacking a clear trend. Due to inventory pressure and average demand recovery, prices are expected to continue to oscillate weakly [32] - The polysilicon market has factors such as production cuts by leading enterprises and limited inventory pressure on non - leading enterprises. Spot prices are expected to remain stable [46] - The industrial silicon market has a clearer price floor due to cost factors, and buying on dips may be more cost - effective [49] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Financial News and Comments 3.1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - European leaders' joint statement on supporting a cease - fire in Russia - Ukraine and Trump's related remarks have led to a more than 5% drop in gold prices. Gold prices are expected to continue to decline due to reduced risk - aversion demand and short - term over - rise [13] 3.1.2 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - The 12 - point peace plan for the Russia - Ukraine conflict has weakened short - term market risk - aversion sentiment, causing the US dollar index to strengthen. However, there are uncertainties in the Russia - Ukraine situation, and the US dollar is expected to oscillate in the short term [17] 3.1.3 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - Nvidia's discussion of providing loan guarantees for OpenAI has increased market concerns. With uncertainties in Sino - US negotiations and a cautious market before the earnings season, risk appetite has declined. The market is expected to improve but with high volatility [20] 3.1.4 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - Multiple small and medium - sized banks have lowered deposit rates, and the central bank has conducted reverse repurchase operations. The bond market is expected to strengthen with oscillations after the implementation of the 14th Five - Year Plan policies [22] 3.2 Commodity News and Comments 3.2.1 Agricultural Products (Sugar) - China's imports of syrup and sugar premix have decreased, Brazil's sugar exports in October have increased, and the price of gasoline in Brazil has been lowered. The domestic sugar market is expected to show weak oscillations [24][26][28] 3.2.2 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - Argentina's soybean exports in September increased, and the US soybean export inspection volume increased week - on - week but decreased year - on - year. The soybean meal market is trading on the expectation of improved Sino - US relations and is expected to remain weak [29][30] 3.2.3 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - The EU has made an anti - dumping final ruling on Chinese steel crawler tracks, and China's automobile exports in September have increased. Steel prices are oscillating, lacking a clear trend, and are expected to continue to oscillate weakly [31][32] 3.2.4 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - Malaysia's palm oil production from October 1 - 20 increased. The oil market is oscillating, and it is recommended to wait for market drivers [34] 3.2.5 Agricultural Products (Corn Starch) - The theoretical profits of corn starch enterprises in different regions vary. The price difference between rice and flour in contracts 01 and 03 is expected to have limited room for further narrowing [35] 3.2.6 Agricultural Products (Corn) - Domestic corn prices are mainly rising, but the upward trend has slowed. Spot prices are expected to decline, while futures prices may enter an oscillatory bottom - building phase [36][37] 3.2.7 Agricultural Products (Red Dates) - The price of red dates in the Hebei Cuierzhuang market has fluctuated slightly. The fundamentals have not changed significantly, and it is recommended to wait and see [40] 3.2.8 Black Metals (Thermal Coal) - The price of thermal coal in the northern port market is strong. Due to supply - demand resonance, prices are expected to strengthen [41] 3.2.9 Black Metals (Iron Ore) - BHP's iron ore production in the third quarter of 2025 decreased. Iron ore prices are oscillating weakly, and the overall trend is expected to be weak [42] 3.2.10 Non - Ferrous Metals (Polysilicon) - China's solar power generation in September increased. The polysilicon market has factors such as production cuts by leading enterprises and limited inventory pressure on non - leading enterprises. Spot prices are expected to remain stable [43][46] 3.2.11 Non - Ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon) - Some polysilicon bases are shutting down, affecting the industrial silicon market. The price floor is clearer, and buying on dips may be more cost - effective [48][49] 3.2.12 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - Sigma Lithium plans to increase lithium concentrate production. The inventory of lithium carbonate is decreasing, and prices are expected to be supported in the short term [50] 3.2.13 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lead) - The LME lead price is oscillating, and the domestic lead market has a short - term supply - demand mismatch. It is recommended to observe unilaterally and consider positive arbitrage between domestic and foreign markets [52][53] 3.2.14 Non - Ferrous Metals (Zinc) - Silvercorp's zinc production in Q2 2025 decreased. The LME zinc price is rising, and the domestic zinc market has a stable supply - demand situation. It is recommended to wait and see unilaterally and consider positive arbitrage [54][55] 3.2.15 Energy Chemicals (Crude Oil) - The US plans to purchase 100 million barrels of crude oil for strategic reserves, and API crude oil inventories have decreased. Oil prices are expected to show weak oscillations [57][60][61] 3.2.16 Energy Chemicals (Carbon Emissions) - The CEA price in the carbon emissions market is oscillating weakly. The supply - demand structure is balanced and loose, and prices are expected to be lower than last year [62][63] 3.2.17 Energy Chemicals (Methanol) - China's methanol imports in September were high. Due to a temporary shutdown of an Iranian methanol plant, futures prices have rebounded, but it is recommended to wait and see [64][66] 3.2.18 Energy Chemicals (Pulp) - The price of imported wood pulp is mostly stable, and the paper pulp futures price is relatively strong. However, due to poor supply - demand fundamentals, the upward space is limited [67][68] 3.2.19 Energy Chemicals (Caustic Soda) - The price of liquid caustic soda in Shandong is mostly stable. The supply is sufficient, and demand is stable. It is not recommended to short aggressively [69][71] 3.2.20 Energy Chemicals (Styrene) - A new styrene plant has started production, and there are many maintenance rumors in the industry. The market is oscillating, and attention should be paid to downstream negative feedback [72][74] 3.2.21 Shipping Index (Container Freight Rates) - HPL will increase freight rates from the Far East to multiple destinations. The market is expected to oscillate in the short term, and it is not recommended to buy on the rise [75][76]

股指期货日报 2025年10月21日 王映(投资咨询证号：Z0016367) 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1290号 上行持续性有待观望 策略推荐 持仓观望 股指日报期指市场观察 市场回顾 今日股指走势上行，以沪深300指数为例，收盘上涨1.53%。从资金面来看，两市成交额上涨1362.89亿元。 期指各品种均放量上涨。 重要资讯 核心观点 今日股市走势偏强，主要原因为股市影响因素有利空缓和，利多可期之势。一方面中美贸易谈判推进，叠加 前期美方官员讲话措辞态度转变，避险情绪有所缓和；另一方面，二十届四中全会召开之后，市场对于政策 面引导预期偏积极。除此之外，日韩股市创新高以及稳股市的一些信息释放，带动市场乐观情绪有所升温。 不过，今日虽量能有所扩张，但仍在两万亿下方，且信息层面的不确定性仍在，尽管今日股市运行偏强，但 整体并未脱离前期震荡中枢，上行持续性预计仍有待进一步利好释放带动。短期建议以持仓观望为主，等待 进一步重磅信息揭晓。 | | IF | IH | IC | IM | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 主力日内涨跌幅（%） | 1.63 | 1.19 | ...

Group 1: Gold Market - Gold prices surged over 2.5%, reaching a historical high of $4,381.29 before closing at $4,356.26 [1] - Following the surge, gold prices experienced a significant drop, falling below the $4,300 mark and hovering around $4,276 [1] Group 2: U.S. Government Shutdown - The U.S. government remains in a shutdown, now entering its 20th day, after the Senate failed to pass a funding bill [4] - The funding bill aimed to extend government funding until November 21 but did not meet the required 60 votes, receiving only 50 in favor [4] - The shutdown has led to approximately 1,400 employees at the National Nuclear Security Administration being placed on unpaid leave, marking the first such occurrence since the agency's establishment in 2000 [4] Group 3: U.S. Stock Market - U.S. stock indices rose significantly, with the Dow Jones up 1.12% to 46,706.58, the S&P 500 up 1.07% to 6,735.13, and the Nasdaq up 1.37% to 22,990.54 [2] - Market expectations are leaning towards a potential resolution of the government shutdown [2] Group 4: Federal Reserve Interest Rate Outlook - The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in October stands at 99.4%, with a 0.6% chance of maintaining current rates [5] - For December, the cumulative probability of a 50 basis point cut is 98.6% [5] Group 5: U.S.-China Trade Relations - President Trump has made multiple statements regarding trade negotiations with China, indicating a potential for both tariffs and agreements [7] - The market reacted positively to Trump's final statement expressing hope for China's prosperity, leading to gains in U.S. stock indices [7] Group 6: U.S.-India Trade Relations - President Trump has threatened to impose "huge tariffs" on Indian goods if India does not cease purchasing Russian oil, escalating tensions between the two nations [8] - An Indian official noted that trade-related differences between India and the U.S. have narrowed, with hopes for an agreement to reduce punitive tariffs [10] Group 7: Political Developments in Japan - On October 21, high-profile politician Takashi Saito was elected as Japan's first female Prime Minister, advocating for expansionary fiscal policies and increased defense spending [12] - The ruling Liberal Democratic Party has formed a new coalition with the Japan Innovation Party after the Komeito party exited the ruling alliance [14] Group 8: Ukraine Conflict - Ukrainian President Zelensky has rejected Russia's demands for a complete withdrawal of Ukrainian forces from the Donbas region, maintaining Ukraine's position in ongoing negotiations [15]

Core Viewpoint - China's total export volume of rare earth magnets in September increased by 17.5% year-on-year, reaching 5,773 tons, while exports to the U.S. significantly decreased [2][4]. Group 1: Export Data - In September, China's rare earth magnet exports to the U.S. were 420 tons, a decrease of 29.5% year-on-year and 28.7% month-on-month, marking two consecutive months of significant decline [2][4]. - Exports to Germany increased by 27.9% to 1,288 tons, while exports to South Korea surged by 84.5% to 854 tons, and exports to Japan rose by 20.8% to 228 tons [4]. Group 2: Market Context - China holds a 70% share of global rare earth production, with rare earth magnets accounting for over 80% of this production [4]. - Amidst stalled U.S.-China trade negotiations, China plans to reduce monthly exports of rare earth magnets to the U.S. from over 400 tons in 2024 to 46 tons by May 2025, seeking to ease semiconductor restrictions imposed by the U.S. [4]. Group 3: Regulatory Environment - In August, the Chinese government implemented stricter regulations on rare earth production management, which may lead to a halt in exports to the U.S. due to increased scrutiny [4].

商 品 研 究 2025 年 10 月 21 日 豆粕：美豆偏强，或跟随反弹震荡 豆一：偏强震荡 吴光静 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0011992 wuguangjing@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 豆粕/豆一基本面数据 | | | 收盘价 （日盘） | 涨 跌 | 收盘价 （夜盘） 涨 跌 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | DCE豆一2601 （元/吨） | 4086 | +52 （+1.29%） | 4085 +30（+0.74%） | | 期 货 | DCE豆粕2601 （元/吨） | 2895 | +13（+0.45%） | 2901 +7（+0.24%） | | | CBOT大豆11 （美分/蒲） | 1032.75 | +11.75（+1.15%） | | | | CBOT豆粕12 （美元/短吨） | 284.8 | +3.8（+1.35%） | n a | | | | | 豆粕 | （43%） | | | 山东 （元/吨） | 2960～2970， M2601+50/+60/+80/+90， | 较昨-10或持平； 持平或-10； | 现货基差M260 ...