Report Industry Investment Rating - The overall outlook for the black building materials industry is "oscillating," with short - term prices expected to be on the stronger side [2][6]. Core Viewpoints - Macro - favorable news such as "anti - involution," Shanxi's crude steel reduction, and "urban renewal" has fermented, leading to a significant upward movement in prices. The market is dominated by macro - policy imagination during the off - season. The fundamentals have no significant contradictions, and the rally in the futures market has spurred downstream restocking, causing spot prices to rise in resonance. In the short term, prices are expected to run strongly [1][2]. - The expectation of a new round of supply - side reform for steel is increasing, and the warming market sentiment has spurred speculative demand, forming a positive feedback for the industrial chain. Against the backdrop of decent spot fundamentals, the futures market is expected to run strongly. Attention should be paid to policy implementation and off - season demand [6]. Summary by Directory Iron Element - Overseas mines have basically ended their end - of - quarter volume rush this week, with a decline in shipments. The arrival volume at 45 ports has slightly increased but fallen short of expectations, and there may be a concentrated arrival in the next 1 - 2 weeks. Steel mills' profitability has slightly improved, and the iron - making volume has decreased but remains at a high level year - on - year. Due to the lower - than - expected arrivals and high demand, port inventories have slightly decreased, and the overall supply - demand contradiction is not prominent. The market sentiment is good, and the futures price is expected to run strongly with oscillations [2]. Carbon Element - In Shanxi, the coal mines affected by previous accidents are gradually resuming supply, but some mines in Shanxi and Shaanxi are still reducing production. Overall, supply is slowly recovering. At the import end, the Mongolia - China border will be closed for 5 days starting tomorrow due to the Naadam Festival, but recent customs clearance has been at a high level, and port transactions are good. On the demand side, coke production has slightly decreased, and there is still short - term rigid demand for coking coal. Downstream procurement sentiment is positive, and the coking coal trading atmosphere is good. The overall supply - demand contradiction is not prominent at present, and attention should be paid to coal mine resumption and Mongolian coal imports [3]. Alloys Manganese Silicon - The sharp rise in coking coal futures prices has raised expectations of an increase in energy prices, strengthening the cost support for manganese silicon. Recently, the sentiment in the black chain has been positive, and the news of peak - period power rationing and the cancellation of electricity subsidies in Ningxia has caused the manganese silicon futures price to open and close higher, but this news has been proven false. Port inventories have slightly increased, and with the arrival of low - priced ores in the future, there is still room for ore prices to decline. The supply - demand relationship of manganese silicon is becoming looser, and it is more difficult to reduce inventories. In the short term, the futures price is expected to fluctuate with the sector [3][6]. Ferrosilicon - The supply - demand relationship of ferrosilicon is relatively healthy. In the short term, the futures price is expected to fluctuate with the sector. However, there is a possibility of filling the supply - demand gap in the future, increasing the difficulty of inventory reduction. Attention should be paid to the adjustment of ferrosilicon's electricity cost [6]. Glass - The news of stronger - than - expected urban renewal and a high - level urban renewal meeting has driven up the futures price. In the off - season, demand is declining, and deep - processing demand has continued to weaken. Although downstream restocking at the beginning of the month has led to good production and sales, the sustainability is to be observed. There are still 3 production lines waiting to produce glass, and daily melting is still on the rise. Upstream inventories have slightly decreased, and there are many market sentiment disturbances. The market is waiting and seeing, and the long - term over - supply pattern is difficult to change. Enterprises are advised to seize the short - term positive feedback hedging opportunities [6]. Steel - The supply - side contraction expectation formed by the "anti - involution" policy and Shanxi's production - limit news, as well as the demand - side improvement expectation such as "urban renewal," have jointly promoted the futures market to be strong. After the futures rally, spot trading sentiment has improved. This week, the supply and demand of rebar have both decreased, and inventory has continued to decline; the supply and demand of hot - rolled coils have both decreased, and inventory has slightly increased; the supply and demand of the five major steel products have both decreased, and inventory changes are limited, with the absolute inventory at a relatively low level over the years. In the short term, with the warming of the macro - sentiment and no obvious negative factors in the fundamentals, steel prices are expected to run strongly. Attention should be paid to policy implementation and off - season demand [9]. Iron Ore - The port trading volume has decreased. From the fundamental perspective, overseas mines have basically ended their end - of - quarter volume rush this week, with a decline in shipments. The arrival volume at 45 ports has slightly increased but fallen short of expectations, and there may be a concentrated arrival in the next 1 - 2 weeks. Steel mills' profitability has slightly improved, and the iron - making volume has decreased but remains at a high level year - on - year. Due to the lower - than - expected arrivals and high demand, port inventories have slightly decreased, and the overall supply - demand contradiction is not prominent. With good market sentiment and decent fundamentals, the futures price is expected to run strongly with oscillations. Before the market sentiment weakens, the price is likely to rise rather than fall [9][10]. Scrap Steel - The fundamentals are stable, and the price is oscillating. The apparent demand and production of rebar have slightly decreased, in line with off - season characteristics, and the total inventory has continued to decline, indicating some resilience in off - season demand. After the market sentiment has warmed up, raw material prices have risen significantly, and the futures price has oscillated upward. This week, the average daily arrival volume of scrap steel has slightly increased but is still lower than the same period last year, and resources are slightly tight. After the rise in steel prices, the profitability of some electric furnaces has recovered, and the daily consumption of scrap steel in electric furnaces has slightly increased; the iron - making volume of blast furnaces has slightly decreased, and the daily consumption of scrap steel in long - process production has also decreased. Although the arrival volume has slightly increased this week, the daily consumption is at a relatively high level in the same period, and factory inventories have slightly decreased [10]. Coke - The futures price of coke has strengthened following coking coal. On the supply side, most coke enterprises are maintaining normal production, while a small number of enterprises with poor profitability have reduced production, and coke production has slightly decreased. On the demand side, the average daily iron - making volume has decreased this week but remains at a high level year - on - year. Steel mills' profitability is good, and they are actively restocking. Recently, the futures market has been strong, and arbitrage demand has been actively purchasing, leading to a rapid reduction in coke inventories of coke enterprises. The current supply - demand pattern of coke has further improved. In the short term, coke prices are likely to rise rather than fall under the strong pull of raw coal prices [10][11][13]. Coking Coal - Market sentiment has been high, and coking coal prices have continued to rise. On the supply side, coal mines affected by previous accidents in Shanxi are gradually resuming supply, but some mines in Shanxi and Shaanxi are still reducing production, and overall supply is slowly recovering. At the import end, the Mongolia - China border will be closed for 5 days starting tomorrow due to the Naadam Festival, but recent customs clearance has been at a high level, and port transactions are good. On the demand side, coke production has slightly decreased, and there is still short - term rigid demand for coking coal. Downstream procurement sentiment is positive, and the coking coal trading atmosphere is good. The overall supply - demand contradiction is not prominent at present, and attention should be paid to coal mine resumption and Mongolian coal imports. Upstream coal mines are still reducing inventories, and the positive market sentiment remains, so the futures market is expected to be supported in the short term [11][12][13]. Glass - The news of stronger - than - expected urban renewal has driven up the futures price. In the off - season, demand is declining, and deep - processing demand has continued to weaken. Although downstream restocking at the beginning of the month has led to good production and sales, the sustainability is to be observed. There are still 3 production lines waiting to produce glass, and daily melting is still on the rise. Upstream inventories have slightly decreased, and there are many market sentiment disturbances. The market is waiting and seeing. In the short term, one should wait and see the pace and intensity of policy introduction. If policies continue to exceed expectations, downstream expectations may improve, leading to a wave of restocking and price increases. In the long run, market - oriented capacity reduction is still needed, and the market is expected to oscillate [14]. Soda Ash - The supply - side over - supply pattern has not changed. The market has spread the news of "anti - involution" in the photovoltaic industry, with an expected significant reduction in daily melting, and the current daily melting of photovoltaic glass has slightly decreased, and the demand for heavy soda ash has flattened, with weak demand expectations. The downstream demand for light soda ash is weak, and manufacturers have continued to cut prices. Sentiment is interfering with the futures market, and the long - term over - supply pattern is difficult to change. Although the short - term "anti - involution" sentiment has driven up the futures price, the over - supply problem still exists after the positive feedback. Enterprises are advised to seize the short - term positive feedback hedging opportunities. In July, there are planned maintenance activities, and in the short term, it is expected to oscillate. In the long run, the price center will continue to decline to promote capacity reduction [6][14][16]. Manganese Silicon - The sharp rise in coking coal futures prices has raised expectations of an increase in energy prices, strengthening the cost support for manganese silicon. Recently, the sentiment in the black chain has been positive, and the news of peak - period power rationing and the cancellation of electricity subsidies in Ningxia has caused the manganese silicon futures price to open and close higher, but this news has been proven false. Port inventories have slightly increased, and with the arrival of low - priced ores in the future, there is still room for ore prices to decline. The supply - demand relationship of manganese silicon is becoming looser, and it is more difficult to reduce inventories. In the short term, the futures price is expected to fluctuate with the sector [3][6][16]. Ferrosilicon - The sharp rise in coking coal futures prices has raised expectations of an increase in energy prices, strengthening the cost support for ferrosilicon. Recently, the sentiment in the black chain has been positive, and the news of peak - period power rationing and the cancellation of electricity subsidies in Ningxia and Qinghai has caused the ferrosilicon futures price to rise strongly, but this news has been proven false. During the steel tender period, the amount of low - priced goods in the market has decreased, and the strong futures market has driven up the spot price. The cost support for ferrosilicon has weakened. The supply of ferrosilicon is increasing. The downstream demand for steelmaking remains resilient. Attention should be paid to the price of this round of steel tenders. The current supply - demand relationship of ferrosilicon is relatively healthy. In the short term, the futures price is expected to fluctuate with the sector. However, there is a possibility of filling the supply - demand gap in the future, increasing the difficulty of inventory reduction. Attention should be paid to the adjustment of ferrosilicon's electricity cost [18][19].

其 他 报 告 2025年07月11日 晨会纪要 | 国内市场 | | 涨跌幅（%） | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 指数 | 收盘 | 1日 | 上周 | | 上证综合指数 | 3510 | 0.48 | 1.40 | | 深证成份指数 | 10631 | 0.47 | 1.25 | | 沪深300指数 | 4010 | 0.47 | 1.54 | | 创业板指数 | 2190 | 0.22 | 1.50 | | 上证国债指数 | 226 | -0.02 | 0.16 | | 上证基金指数 | 6949 | 0.06 | 0.16 | 资料来源:同花顺iFinD | 海外市场 | | 涨跌幅（%） | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 指数 | 收盘 | 1日 | 上周 | | 中国香港恒生指数 | 24028 | 0.57 | -1.52 | | 中国香港国企指数 | 8668 | 0.83 | -1.75 | | 中国台湾加权指数 | 22693 | 0.74 | -0.14 | | 道琼斯指数 | 44458 | 0.49 | 2.30 | | ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 市场情绪延续回暖，玻璃、焦煤、纯苯涨幅靠前 ——中信期货晨报20250711 中信期货研究所 仲鼎 从业资格号F03107932 投资咨询号Z0021450 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 | | | | SEE THE FOR COLLECTION POST OF COLLECTION | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 板块 | 品种 | 现价 | | | 日度涨跌幅周度涨跌幅月度涨跌幅季度涨跌幅今年涨跌幅 | | | | 股指 | 沪深300期货 | 3972 | 0.49% | 0.91% | 2.224 | 222 | 1.30% | | | 上证50期货 | 2740.4 | 0.60% | 0.85% | 11914 | 1 91% | 2.33% | | | 中证500期货 | EdE88 | 0.49% | ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|⾦融衍⽣品策略⽇报 2025-07-11 股指期货：延续温和上⾏态势 股指期权：维持谨慎 国债期货：债市情绪偏弱 股指期货方面，昨日盘面延续温和上扬态势，其中地产、保险、 煤炭、油气领涨，其中体现几个逻辑，其一，政治局会议临近，对于地产 政策落地预期提升，其二，反内卷、供给侧的预期进一步强化，资金预计 在国企占比更高的产业链落地概率更大，其三，银行、保险高股息的特征 继续吸引中长期资金介入。同时观察盘面，涨停家数66家，跌停家数14 家，涨停家数处于中等偏低水平，显示大金融行情对盘面形成一定分流作 用。故短线高度我们倾向与大金融板块的持续性有关，若继续发力则向上 空间打开。 股指期权方面，昨日标的表现仍然偏强，上证50指数上涨0. 62%，而上证指数突破3500点，盘面强势延续。期权端，量能变动不大， 表明市场并未出现大规模上涨追高交易；波动率方面，仍有窄幅抬升， 但抬升斜率较周初再度放缓。情绪指标方面，持仓量PCR冲高，来到阶段 性峰值，而比值PCR再度探底，多数临近前低水平，两者分别从期权卖方 和期权买方市场表明当前投资者情绪再度谨慎。综上，操 ...

广期所称，经研究决定，自2025年7月14日结算时起，多晶硅期货合约涨跌停板幅度调整为9%，投机交 易保证金标准调整为11%，套期保值交易保证金标准调整为10%。 有业内人士表示，交易所适时发布"提保扩板"政策，一方面可让火热的多晶硅市场适当降温，另一方面 也有助于防控市场风险。 7月3日工信部召开光伏行业制造业企业座谈会，坚决落实中央财经委第六次会议关于纵深推进全国统一 大市场建设的决策部署。 光伏玻璃行业积极响应"反内卷"政策导向。 6月29日国内十大光伏玻璃厂决定7月开始集体减产，减产规模预计将达到30%。 大全能源投资者关系活动记录表显示，行业硅料库存约40万吨。结合产业历史规律及当前供需格局，行 业硅料库存规模满足2个月的下游需求水平。 随着多晶硅期货行情不断升温以及波动明显加大，7月10日晚间，广期所紧急发布"提保扩板"政策。 智通财经APP获悉，据 SMM，为避免光伏玻璃企业之间竞争加剧使得市场恶性循环，多数玻璃企业计 划 7 月开始减产改善供应端，行业倡议减产规模达到 30%。 广发证券研究预计在现阶段短期更多依靠市场化手段实现供给收缩，老旧产能在上一轮下行周期中基本 出清。 光伏产业链相关港 ...

中金研究 6 月 CPI 同比由负转正，主要受工业消费品价格回升带动，除国际原油和贵金属价格上涨外，反 " 内卷 " 打压 " 价格战 " 、促消费政策提振，汽车、家电价 格同比改善， PPI 同比中汽车制造、光伏、锂电池价格同比均改善。但 PPI 同比跌幅进一步走扩、环比连续第 7 个月负增，供过于求、需求不足仍是主要 矛盾。向前看，反 " 内卷式 " 竞争拉开序幕，提振消费和纠正无序同质竞争在供需两端同时发力，有望助益物价回升。 点击小程序查看报告原文 1. 工业消费品价格回升助力CPI同比转正 6月CPI同比结束连续四个月的负增，由上月的-0.1%转为0.1%，主要受工业消费品价格的拉动，能源与核心商品同比均改善，后者带动核心CPI同比升至 14个月新高的0.7%（5月为0.6%）。 ► 肉价弱，果蔬强，食品通胀微升。 CPI食品价格同比下降-0.3%，比上月收窄0.1个百分点。其中，受生猪供给持续释放和去产能推进，猪肉价格同比由 上月的上涨3.1%转为下降8.5%，边际拖累CPI同比0.14ppt；因部分地区高温天气和供应地调整，应季蔬菜价格同比较上月-8.3%大幅收窄至-0.4%，鲜果价 格同比亦由 ...

Core Viewpoint - The phenomenon of "zero-kilometer used cars" is gaining attention in the market, where vehicles are sold at prices significantly lower than new cars, raising concerns about market dynamics and consumer protection [1][2]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The circulation of "zero-kilometer used cars" is increasing, with 12.7% of the used car market consisting of vehicles registered for less than 3 months and having mileage under 50 kilometers, indicating a significant impact on new car sales and pricing structures [2]. - The presence of these vehicles is expected to disrupt the profit margins of new car retailers, leading to a potential decline in new car sales and increased pressure on manufacturers to adopt aggressive market strategies [2][4]. Group 2: Consumer Risks - Consumers purchasing "zero-kilometer used cars" may face hidden risks, including the loss of warranty rights, as many manufacturers only provide warranty coverage to the first owner, which could lead to high repair costs for subsequent owners [3]. - The export of "zero-kilometer used cars" to overseas markets has raised concerns about anti-dumping allegations and potential tariffs, posing a threat to the reputation and interests of Chinese automotive manufacturers [3]. Group 3: Regulatory Response - The industry is experiencing a push for regulatory measures to address the "zero-kilometer used car" phenomenon, with the Ministry of Commerce and the China Automotive Industry Association advocating for fair competition and the cessation of price wars [4][5]. - Initiatives are being implemented to promote healthy market practices, including enhancing product consistency checks and enforcing regulations against unfair competition, aimed at fostering a sustainable automotive industry [4][5].

多只理财产品提前终止，什么情况？ 特朗普急催美联储降息，五大原因令他难以如愿！ 美国总统特朗普希望美联储尽快削减美国利率，但短期内难对借贷成本产生太大影响。主要原因有：美 联储主席只有一票，即便更换主席也需说服其他11名成员；美联储坚守独立性，若降息出于政治目的， 新主席难获支持；美联储理事会改组耗时，特朗普难以短期内重塑；美联储无法直接控制多数借贷利 率；华尔街话语权重大，投资者会根据通胀调整长期利率。详情>> 【一图看懂】这三国按下暂停键！全球降息潮添变数 相关新闻虽未提供正文，但从标题可知，有三个国家的某些举措按下暂停键，这给全球降息潮增添了变 数，可能影响全球金融市场和经济形势的走向。详情>> 金融市场犹如变幻莫测的海洋，时刻涌动着投资与经济政策的波澜，深刻影响着全球经济的走向。在 此，喜娜AI为您呈上昨夜今晨的财经热点新闻，全方位覆盖股市动态、经济数据、企业财务状况以及 政策更新等关键领域，助您精准洞察金融世界的风云变幻，把握市场脉搏。 近段时间股市走强，部分挂钩股指及其他资产品类的理财产品因触发敲出条件或达到止盈条件提前终 止。专家认为，这一机制能让投资者提前锁定收益、规避风险，但也面临资金再配置 ...

Core Viewpoint - The "anti-involution" movement is a significant transformation aimed at promoting high-quality development in major industries by restructuring competition rules and breaking path dependence, shifting competition from "low-level internal consumption" to "high-quality co-creation" [1][2][4] Group 1: Industry Context - The "anti-involution" movement is not merely a cooling of industries but a necessary step to address the detrimental effects of "involution-style" competition, which has trapped companies in a cycle of low prices and low quality [2][3] - Historical competition in China was characterized by scale expansion and price competition, which has now become outdated and counterproductive in the current economic environment [1][2] Group 2: Governance Changes - The governance logic is shifting from "administrative dominance" to "rule of law," with the revision of the Anti-Unfair Competition Law targeting practices like "forced low-price sales" and "platform choice," thereby protecting normal pricing rights while curbing malicious competition [3] - The focus of governance is moving from merely monitoring production capacity to facilitating the free flow of resources across the national market, allowing companies to collaborate with leading technology partners rather than being restricted by local procurement policies [3] Group 3: Long-term Goals - The objective of the "anti-involution" movement is to foster long-term growth by encouraging innovation and providing tax incentives for R&D investments, steering resources towards technological advancements rather than price wars [3][4] - This approach aims to guide companies to compete based on quality and innovation rather than price, promoting a rational competitive environment where collaboration and technological upgrades are prioritized [3][4]

英伟达盘中市值突破4万亿美元 点击按钮▲立即报名 国办发布19条稳就业举措 7月10日消息，国务院办公厅近日印发《关于进一步加大稳就业政策支持力度的通知》，从7个方面提出19条政策举措。《通知》明确，扩大稳 岗扩岗专项贷款支持范围；加大失业保险稳岗返还政策力度，中小微企业返还比例由不超过企业及其职工上年度实际缴纳失业保险费的60%最高 提至不超过90%，大型企业返还比例由不超过30%最高提至不超过50%；实施阶段性缓缴社会保险费政策；扩大社会保险补贴范围等。 《通知》提出，对符合条件的吸纳16—24岁登记失业青年就业的企业和社会组织，按照每人不超过1500元的标准发放一次性扩岗补助。此外， 《通知》还就优化就业服务、强化就业援助、开展就业监测、切实加强组织保障等方面作出多项部署。（综合央视新闻） ｜点评｜ 稳就业不仅是稳经济、扩内需，还关系着众多家庭的生计和整个社会的稳定。这两年国家已经推出了一系列稳就业政策，目前青年失 业率仍处于高位，7月是毕业生离校和新一轮秋招的过渡期，此时加码稳就业，也加大了对失业青年就业的支持力度。企业尤其是民企，是经济 的毛细血管，更是吸纳就业的主力军。从具体措施来看，稳就业政策也 ...