记者丨 易妍君 编辑丨包芳鸣 公募基金行业迈入"35万亿"时代。 中国证券投资基金业协会（以下简称"基金业协会"）最新公布的数据显示 ，截至2025年7月 底，我国境内公募基金资产净值（即规模）合计达到35.08万亿元，为首次突破35万亿元大 关。这也是公募基金市场自2025年4月以来连续第4个月扩容。 据基金业协会统计，截至2025年7月底，我国境内公募基金管理机构共164家，其中基金管理 公司149家，取得公募资格的资产管理机构15家。以上机构管理的公募基金资产净值合计35.08 万亿元。 对比今年6月末，整个7月，公募行业总规模增加了约6829.93亿元。这部分增量主要来自开放 式股票基金、混合基金、货币基金。 其中，1333只封闭式基金（包含申报为封闭运作和定期开放的基金）的净值合计为3.74万亿 元；11681只开放式基金的总规模为31.33万亿元。 不过，股票基金、混合基金的规模增长主要得益于基金净值的修复，而非基民大举入场。 开放式基金具体包含5类产品：3074只股票基金的净值合计为4.92万亿元，5203只混合基金的 净值共计3.83万亿元，而债券基金、货币基金、QDII基金的总规模分别为7. ...

Core Viewpoint - The public fund industry in China has reached a significant milestone, with total net assets surpassing 35 trillion yuan as of July 2025, marking a continuous expansion over the past four months [1][4]. Fund Industry Overview - As of July 2025, the total net asset value of public funds in China reached 35.08 trillion yuan, an increase of approximately 682.99 billion yuan from June [1][2]. - The growth in fund size is primarily attributed to the recovery of fund net values rather than a significant influx of new investors [2][6]. - The public fund management sector consists of 164 institutions, including 149 fund management companies and 15 asset management firms with public qualifications [2]. Fund Categories and Performance - The total net asset value of closed-end funds is 3.74 trillion yuan, while open-end funds account for 31.33 trillion yuan [2]. - Open-end funds include 3,074 stock funds with a net value of 4.92 trillion yuan, 5,203 mixed funds totaling 3.83 trillion yuan, and other categories such as bond funds, money market funds, and QDII funds [2]. - In July, stock funds, mixed funds, and money market funds saw increases of 192.59 billion yuan, 138.56 billion yuan, and 381.38 billion yuan, respectively [3]. Market Dynamics - The average net value growth rates for stock and mixed funds in July were 5.29% and 5.02%, respectively, indicating a positive correlation between public fund size and stock market performance [3][4]. - The total net asset value of listed ETFs reached 4.59 trillion yuan by the end of July, reflecting an increase of over 530 billion yuan since April [3]. - QDII funds also experienced growth, with a monthly increase of approximately 46.3 billion yuan [3]. Investor Behavior - Despite the growth in fund size, stock and mixed funds experienced net redemptions in July, indicating a prevailing sentiment among investors to take profits [6][7]. - The total shares of stock and mixed funds decreased by 11.47 billion and 37.06 billion shares, respectively, from June [6]. - Conversely, money market and QDII funds saw net subscriptions, with money market funds reaching a total of 14.62 trillion shares, an increase of about 2.67% [7]. Bond Fund Trends - Bond funds faced significant redemption pressure, with total shares decreasing by over 194.4 billion shares, a decline of approximately 3% [9]. - The outflow from bond funds is attributed to a shift in investor preference towards equities, driven by rising risk appetite and market conditions [9][10]. - Analysts suggest that the redemption pressure on bond funds is primarily a short-term impact, with overall redemption risks remaining manageable [9][10].

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the increasing attractiveness of "equity + fixed income" bank wealth management products due to the rising equity market, leading to a shift in investor preferences from pure fixed income products [3][6] Regulatory and Industry Dynamics - The annualized yield of certain equity-linked bank wealth management products has shown impressive performance, prompting investors to reallocate funds from pure fixed income products to these hybrid options [3][6] - Bank wealth management subsidiaries are intensifying collaborations with local small and medium-sized banks to expand distribution channels and business scope [3][6] Peer Innovation Dynamics - On August 26, China Post Wealth Management launched two new personal pension wealth management products with different holding periods, designed to meet diverse retirement planning needs [7] - On August 23, Xingyin Wealth Management completed an equity investment in Beijing Mainline Technology Co., Ltd., driven by a long-term investment logic in smart driving [7][8] Yield Performance - For the week of August 18-24, 2025, cash management products recorded a 7-day annualized yield of 1.31%, remaining stable compared to the previous week, while money market funds reported a yield of 1.20% [4][9] - The yield of various fixed income and hybrid products has generally declined, with the 1-year government bond yield increasing by 0.4 basis points to 1.37% and the 10-year government bond yield rising by 3.5 basis points to 1.78% [4][10] Net Value Tracking - The net value ratio of bank wealth management products rose to 3.04%, an increase of 1.47 percentage points week-on-week, while credit spreads narrowed by 2.90 basis points [5][15] - Despite a weakening sentiment in the bond market, credit spreads remain at historically low levels, indicating limited value [5][15]

8月26日晚，中国基金业协会披露数据：截至2025年7月底，我国公募基金总规模为35.08万亿元，续创历史新高。 7月份，随着沪深指数同步上涨，权益类产品净值增幅明显，无论是股票基金还是混合基金均有明显的净值增幅；此外，港股与美股上涨亦带动了QDII基金份额与 净值的同步增长。值得一提的是，在股债"跷跷板"效应作用下，不少债基资金选择"撤离"搬至权益市场或"固收+"产品，因此7月内债基规模环比下降超480亿元。 续创历史新高 对于货基规模的增长，有公募人士指出，虽然权益市场行情转暖，但波动和不确定性仍在，加之银行存款下调后部分存款资金转化至货基，导致货基的规模依旧稳 定增长。除此之外，货币基金具有门槛低、风险低、流动性高等特点，尤其是部分货币基金与购物场景做了结合，满足了当下年轻人的便捷需求。在多方因素的叠 加影响下，造成了货币基金虽然收益下行，但规模却持续增长的现象。 权益基金规模大增 随着A股的回暖，权益基金规模上升势头明显。 7月份，上证指数上涨3.74%，深证成指上涨5.2%。权益基金方面，受"回本就卖"影响，股票基金的总份额环比下降114.65亿份；而混合基金的总份额则下降370.59 亿份。但在指 ...

1. Report's Investment Rating for the Industry - The report does not explicitly mention an overall industry investment rating. However, for specific financial derivatives: - Stock index futures are expected to be "oscillating with a bullish bias" [9] - Stock index options are also expected to be "oscillating with a bullish bias" [10] - Treasury bond futures are expected to be "oscillating" [10] 2. Core View of the Report - The stock market rally is not over, and the sentiment in the bond market has improved. Stock index futures are in high - level oscillations with shrinking capital; stock index option trading remains active, and the skewness indicates that the market rally is not over; the bullish sentiment in the bond market continues [2][3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Views 3.1.1 Stock Index Futures - **Market Situation**: On Tuesday, the Shanghai Composite Index opened lower and oscillated, with trading volume shrinking by nearly 500 billion yuan to 2.7 trillion yuan. All four stock index futures varieties reduced their positions by over 10,000 lots [9]. - **Reasons for Oscillations**: High trading volume is not sustainable; during the intensive disclosure period of interim reports, funds are avoiding high - valuation sectors; with the approaching military parade, risk appetite may converge [9]. - **Outlook**: This retracement is defined as an oscillation in a bull market. Loss - making stock price increases, a signal of the end of a bull market, have not appeared. It is recommended to continue holding IM long positions and wait for opportunities to add positions [9]. 3.1.2 Stock Index Options - **Market Situation**: The trading volume of the options market was 14.636 billion yuan, still above the 10 - billion - yuan level. After the decline, the position PCR did not drop significantly, and the skewness index decreased. Volatility is high, with most varieties oscillating at high levels [10][11]. - **Outlook**: The market is still expected to rise. It is recommended to continue holding long - position strategies, such as buying call options or using bull spreads [10][11]. 3.1.3 Treasury Bond Futures - **Market Situation**: Most yields of major inter - bank interest - rate bonds declined. The central bank's open - market operations had a net withdrawal of 17.45 billion yuan, but the inter - bank pledged repurchase rate mostly declined, and the capital market remained loose [4][12]. - **Reasons for Bullish Sentiment**: The decline of the Shanghai Composite Index supported the long - end of the bond market through the stock - bond seesaw effect. This week, trading funds such as fund companies have turned to net buying of bonds [4][12]. - **Outlook**: Short - term risk appetite improvement may disrupt the bond market. It is advisable to focus on opportunities for narrowing long - end basis spreads [4][12]. 3.2 Economic Calendar - The economic calendar lists data such as the US new home sales in July 2025, the S&P/CS housing price index of 20 large and medium - sized cities in the US in June, and the expected data of the eurozone's economic sentiment index and consumer confidence index in August [13]. 3.3 Important Information and News Tracking - The Ministry of Housing and Urban - Rural Development plans to start the renovation of 25,000 old urban residential areas in 2025, and 19,800 have been started from January to July. Six regions including Hebei and Liaoning have a start - up rate of over 90% [14]. - The State Council issued the "Opinions on Deeply Implementing the 'Artificial Intelligence +' Initiative", proposing to increase financial and fiscal support in the field of artificial intelligence [15][16]. - The State - owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission requires state - owned enterprises to further deepen industrial assistance to Tibet and promote major projects such as the Yaxia Hydropower Project and the Sichuan - Tibet Railway [16]. 3.4 Derivatives Market Monitoring - The report mentions monitoring data for stock index futures, stock index options, and treasury bond futures, but specific data details are not provided in the given text [17][21][33]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates that the bond market has shown significant adjustments since August, particularly in the long end, leading to a bearish trend with interest rate adjustments greater than credit [1][2] - The article suggests that two conditions need to be met for a turning point in the bond market: the pessimistic expectations must be fully released, and a widely recognized bullish signal must emerge [1][2] - Current institutional behavior suggests that pessimistic expectations in the bond market may have been largely released, as indicated by a typical adjustment process of gradual decline followed by stabilization [1][2] Group 2 - A clear and widely accepted bullish signal is needed for the bond market to recover, with potential signals including the end of a unilateral upward trend in equities or the bond market developing an independent trend [2][3] - The article discusses three possible bullish signals: the end of the equity market's unilateral rise, the potential for interest rate cuts by the central bank, and the confirmation of a turning point in social financing growth [2][3] - The article predicts that social financing growth may peak around 9.0% in July-August and gradually decline to approximately 8.2% by the end of the year, with government bond issuance pressures expected to decrease [2][3] Group 3 - The sentiment in the bond market appears to have been largely released, with a higher probability of independent trends in both stocks and bonds, while expectations for central bank interest rate cuts require further observation [3] - The 10-year government bond yield is expected to face strong resistance around 1.8%, suggesting potential investment opportunities arising from the current adjustments in the bond market [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report provides investment analysis and strategies for various financial and commodity futures and options, including intraday and mid - term views, reference strategies, and core logics for each product [1][2][5]. - For financial futures, the stock index futures are expected to have high - level sideways consolidation and index differentiation in the short - term, with a wide - range shock in the medium - term. The treasury bond futures are expected to continue to rebound with long - term bonds being strong in the short - term and remain strong in the medium - term [1][2]. - For commodity futures, different sectors such as metals, black and building materials, livestock and soft commodities, and energy and chemicals have different trends and influencing factors. For example, copper in the metal sector is affected by factors like Fed's interest - rate cut expectations, supply and demand, and inventory [5][6][7]. Summary by Related Catalogs Financial Futures and Options Stock Index Futures - **Varieties**: IF, IH, IC, IM - **Intraday View**: High - level sideways consolidation, index differentiation [1] - **Mid - term View**: Wide - range shock - **Reference Strategy**: Hold long positions in IF2509 cautiously and hold IO - 4300 - P put options for protection - **Core Logic**: Market trading volume has decreased but remains at a high level. Margin trading balance is stable and approaching 2.2 trillion yuan. Leverage funds continue to enter the market, and the trading sentiment of margin trading funds is heating up. The policy side forms multiple positive overlays, providing good support for the market [1]. Treasury Bond Futures - **Varieties**: TS, TF, T, TL - **Intraday View**: Rebound continues, long - term bonds are strong - **Mid - term View**: Strong - **Reference Strategy**: Hold long positions in TL2512 - **Core Logic**: The central bank's open - market operations turn to net withdrawal, but the previous monthly MLF renewal achieved a large - scale net injection. The inter - bank market liquidity remains abundant. The stock - bond seesaw effect may be further desensitized, and the economic recovery is slow, indicating that the bond market is difficult to switch from bull to bear [2][3]. Commodity Futures and Options Metal and New Energy Materials Sector - **Copper** - **Intraday View**: Fluctuate within the range of 79290 - 80100 (also 78500 - 80000 in another part) [5][51] - **Mid - term View**: Fluctuate within the range of 60000 - 90000 - **Reference Strategy**: Adopt an oscillating operation idea - **Core Logic**: The Fed's September interest - rate cut expectation is high. Supply shows a tightening trend in some aspects, and demand is positive in some areas like China's power grid investment and global energy - storage battery shipments. However, the slowdown in US import demand may weaken the support for copper prices [6][7][51]. - **Industrial Silicon** - **Intraday View**: Run strongly, within the range of 8600 - 8900 (also 8500 - 8800 in another part) [8][54] - **Mid - term View**: Run strongly, within the range of 8500 - 9500 - **Reference Strategy**: Adopt a long - biased approach - **Core Logic**: Supply decreased year - on - year in July. Demand also decreased year - on - year in June. The inventory is at a high level in the past 7 years, but the "Industrial Silicon Industry Kunming Initiative" is expected to boost the price [8][9][54]. - **Polysilicon** - **Intraday View**: Run strongly, within the range of 50,000 - 53,000 - **Mid - term View**: Run strongly, within the range of 45,000 - 65,000 - **Reference Strategy**: Adopt a long - biased approach - **Core Logic**: Supply decreased year - on - year in June. Demand decreased year - on - year in July. The inventory shows obvious oversupply, but the "anti - involution" expectation boosts the price [10][11][12]. - **Aluminum** - **Intraday View**: Run at a high level, within the range of 20600 - 20900 - **Mid - term View**: Run strongly, within the range of 19500 - 21000 - **Reference Strategy**: Sell AL2510 - P - 19300 - **Core Logic**: The supply - side reform in 2017 set a cap on China's electrolytic aluminum production capacity, and the current production capacity increase space is limited. The social inventory is at the second - lowest level in the past 5 years, and the automobile market is performing well, which is beneficial to the aluminum price [13][14][59]. - **Lithium Carbonate** - **Intraday View**: Wide - range fluctuation, within the range of 75,000 - 85,000 - **Mid - term View**: Oscillate strongly, within the range of 70,000 - 100,000 - **Reference Strategy**: Adopt a long - biased approach - **Core Logic**: The spot price has declined recently. Supply increased year - on - year in July, and the total inventory is at a high level within the year [15]. Black and Building Materials Sector - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil** - **Intraday View**: Short - term decline but limited downside space - **Mid - term View**: Lack of upward driving force - **Reference Strategy**: Continue to hold sold out - of - the - money put options on rebar, such as RB2510 - P - 2900 - **Core Logic**: The inflection point of raw material supply and demand has appeared, and the policy - based production restriction is less than expected. However, the explicit inventory of steel products is at the lowest level in the past 5 years, so the downside space in the next 1 - 2 weeks is expected to be limited [17][18][61]. Livestock, Animal Husbandry, and Soft Commodities Sector - **Sugar** - **Intraday View**: Run weakly - **Mid - term View**: Strong bottom support (also oscillate weakly in another part) [20][21][63] - **Reference Strategy**: Exit long positions and wait and see - **Core Logic**: Production and exports in Brazil decreased in July. India is expected to have a large increase in production in the new season, and Thailand is expected to continue to increase production. In China, the domestic refined sugar production has increased significantly year - on - year, and the supply is expected to be marginally looser [23][63]. - **Protein Meal** - **Intraday View**: Rapeseed meal 2601 is weaker than soybean meal 2601 - **Mid - term View**: Soybean meal 2601 will fluctuate sharply in August and September - **Reference Strategy**: Continue to hold the strategy of shorting soybean oil 2601 and going long on palm oil 2601 - **Core Logic**: The average yields of US corn and soybeans are expected to reach record highs. The situation of US soybean exports to China, the harvest progress of Canadian rapeseed, and relevant policies all affect the market [33][34][64]. Energy and Chemicals Sector - **Crude Oil** - **Intraday View**: There is upward space - **Mid - term View**: Under pressure - **Reference Strategy**: Sell out - of - the - money put options on SC crude oil - **Core Logic**: OPEC + maintains the production - increase strategy in September. The supply of heavy - oil is still tight due to sanctions, but the supply from Venezuela may increase. The demand shows different trends in different regions and products, and the inventory is expected to accumulate in the third - quarter end [40][41][67]. - **PVC** - **Intraday View**: Stabilize and rebound (also run weakly in another part) [42][70] - **Mid - term View**: Support at the bottom - **Reference Strategy**: Continue to hold the strategy of selling out - of - the - money put options on PVC - **Core Logic**: The cost of calcium carbide increases, the supply decreases due to equipment maintenance but may increase in the future. The demand is weak, and the inventory is currently accumulating but may decrease later [43][44][70].

Group 1 - The bond market has experienced significant adjustments in August, with many medium to long-term pure bond funds facing pressure on net value due to rising bond yields and frequent redemptions from bond funds [1] - Fund managers exhibit different strategies in response to the current market conditions, with some actively positioning for buying opportunities while others prefer to shorten duration and enhance liquidity [1] - The People's Bank of China has indicated a commitment to maintaining a moderately loose monetary policy, ensuring ample liquidity in the market, which reduces the likelihood of a significant rise in bond yields [1] Group 2 - The issuance and utilization of government bonds have accelerated this year, with a total of 996 billion yuan in ultra-long special government bonds issued by August 26, achieving a progress rate of 76.6% [2] - Local governments have issued 31,497.6 million yuan in new special bonds, surpassing the issuance scale of the same period last year, which is expected to provide strong support for stable growth [2] - The company bond ETF (511030) has shown a recent price of 106.09 yuan, with a cumulative increase of 1.01% over the past six months [2] Group 3 - The latest scale of the company bond ETF has reached 22.361 billion yuan, with recent fund inflows and outflows remaining balanced [3] - Over the past five trading days, the company bond ETF has attracted a total of 31.8173 million yuan in net inflows, indicating sustained interest from leveraged funds [3] - The company bond ETF has achieved a net value increase of 13.47% over the past five years, with a historical monthly return of up to 1.22% and a 100% probability of profit over a three-year holding period [3][4] Group 4 - The maximum drawdown for the company bond ETF in the past six months was 0.19%, with a relative benchmark drawdown of 0.08% [4] - The management fee for the company bond ETF is set at 0.15%, while the custody fee is 0.05% [5] Group 5 - The company bond ETF has maintained a tracking error of 0.013% this year, closely following the China Bond - Medium to High Grade Corporate Bond Spread Factor Index [6] - The index serves as a performance benchmark for investments in medium to high-grade corporate bonds, with adjustments made quarterly based on market conditions [6]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report aims to objectively reflect the research views of futures companies and securities companies on various commodity futures, track hot - spot varieties, analyze market investment sentiment, and summarize investment driving logic [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Quotes - **Commodities**: PTA, ethylene glycol, palm oil, PVC, and crude oil had positive weekly price changes with rates of 3.22%, 1.41%, 1.40%, 1.31%, and 1.13% respectively from August 18 to August 22, 2025. While silver, methanol, gold, copper, aluminum, corn, pig, iron ore, soybean meal, rebar, polysilicon, glass, and coking coal had negative changes, with coking coal dropping 5.53% [2] - **A - shares**: The Shanghai - Shenzhen 300, CSI 500, and SSE 50 had positive weekly price changes of 4.18%, 3.87%, and 3.38% respectively [2] - **Overseas Stocks**: The FTSE 100, France CAC40, and Hang Seng Index had positive changes of 2.00%, 0.58%, and 0.27% respectively, while the Nasdaq Index and Nikkei 225 had negative changes of - 0.58% and - 1.72% respectively [2] - **Bonds**: The 5 - year, 10 - year, and 2 - year Chinese government bonds had positive price changes of 4.20%, 2.21%, and 1.83% respectively [2] - **Foreign Exchange**: The euro - US dollar exchange rate had a positive change of 0.16%, while the US dollar central parity rate and the US dollar index had negative changes of - 0.07% and - 0.12% respectively [2] 3.2 Commodity Views 3.2.1 Macro - financial Sector - **Stock Index Futures**: Among 8 institutions' views, 3 were bullish, 2 were bearish, and 3 were neutral. Bullish factors included the Fed's dovish signal, relaxation of Shanghai's real - estate purchase restrictions, expectations of further stimulus policies, central bank's net liquidity injection, and increased trading volume and record - high margin trading balance. Bearish factors included weaker - than - expected economic data, cooling effect of earnings reports, over - heated small - cap stock trading, and short - term correction risk after a rapid rise [4] - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Among 7 institutions' views, 1 was bullish, 4 were bearish, and 2 were neutral. Bullish factors included the Fed's dovish signal, lower - than - expected social financing and credit data, and the central bank's clear attitude to maintain market liquidity. Bearish factors included the strong stock market, seasonal issuance peak in the third quarter, more sensitive stock market to the Fed's rate - cut expectation, and weak expectation of further policy easing [4] 3.2.2 Energy Sector - **Crude Oil**: Among 9 institutions' views, 3 were bullish, 3 were bearish, and 3 were neutral. Bullish factors included the Fed's dovish signal, unexpected decline in US crude oil inventory, seasonal rebound in US gasoline crack spread, and potential increase in sanctions against Russia. Bearish factors included weak euro - zone macro - economy, OPEC +'s planned production increase, significant production growth in Latin American countries, and weakening of crude oil calendar spread [5] 3.2.3 Agricultural Products Sector - **Palm Oil**: Among 8 institutions' views, 3 were bullish, 1 was bearish, and 4 were neutral. Bullish factors included lower - than - expected US biodiesel exemption, slow inventory growth in Malaysia, low - inventory environment before the production - reduction period, and declining inventory in Indonesia. Bearish factors included the Indonesian palm - oil industry's call to re - evaluate the B50 plan, rising inventory in China, short - term correction risk after a sharp rise, and a significant increase in Indonesia's palm - oil production in June [5] 3.2.4 Non - ferrous Metals Sector - **Copper**: Among 7 institutions' views, 2 were bullish, 0 were bearish, and 5 were neutral. Bullish factors included Powell's dovish remarks, improved macro - sentiment, tight overseas mine supply, and expected increase in downstream restocking demand. Bearish factors included uncertain impact of tariffs on demand, increased non - US supply due to US copper tariff policy, stable but weak restocking demand at high prices, and increased domestic electrolytic copper production in July [6] 3.2.5 Chemicals Sector - **Glass**: Among 7 institutions' views, 0 were bullish, 1 was bearish, and 6 were neutral. Bullish factors included real - estate policy - driven demand improvement, traditional demand peak season in September, and enhanced bottom - valuation support. Bearish factors included lower spot transaction prices, large premium of the 01 contract, increasing inventory pressure of float - glass factories, and weakening cost support from coal price decline [6] 3.2.6 Precious Metals Sector - **Gold**: Among 7 institutions' views, 2 were bullish, 0 were bearish, and 5 were neutral. Bullish factors included Powell's dovish speech, US economic stagflation expectation, and mid - term de - dollarization logic. Bearish factors included the market having priced in the Fed's rate - cut expectation, progress in trade negotiations, and lack of strong upward momentum [7] 3.2.7 Black Metals Sector - **Coking Coal**: Among 8 institutions' views, 3 were bullish, 1 was bearish, and 4 were neutral. Bullish factors included the eighth round of coke price increase, high expected molten - iron output, stricter safety supervision before early September, and a coal - mine accident in Fujian. Bearish factors included increased Mongolian coal imports, weakened downstream purchasing enthusiasm, expected production cuts by downstream steel mills and coking plants at the end of August, and the opening of the Australian coal import window [7]

Group 1 - The stock market shows a strong trend while the bond market faces challenges, leading to a "see-saw" effect between stocks and bonds [1][4] - The yield on 10-year and 30-year government bonds has increased by 14 basis points and 23 basis points respectively since early July, reaching 1.7818% and 2.0775% [1] - The bond market sentiment remains cautious despite a slight recovery potential as the 10-year government bond yield approaches the 1.8% mark [4] Group 2 - The macroeconomic fundamentals of the bond market have not changed significantly, with weak financing demand and a reasonably ample liquidity environment providing support [2] - In July, social financing continued to show a divergence in total and structural characteristics, with government bond issuance being a major contributor while real financing demand remains weak [2] - Economic data for July indicates weakening demand pressures, with notable declines in investment, particularly in infrastructure and manufacturing [2][3] Group 3 - The current economic strength suggests that achieving annual growth targets is not overly pressured, with rising commodity prices contributing to a rebound in inflation expectations [3] - The monetary policy is in a "comfortable zone," with no immediate motivation for active easing, and the probability of rate cuts further decreasing in the third quarter [3] - Recent policies aimed at supporting personal consumption loans and service industry loans reflect a coordinated effort between fiscal and monetary policies to boost consumption and stabilize employment [3][4] Group 4 - A new "quasi-fiscal" tool worth 500 billion yuan is set to be implemented, focusing on emerging industries and infrastructure, which can enhance effective investment [4] - The market has experienced three phases since the beginning of the year: tightening liquidity in Q1, a dual bull market in Q2, and a renewed "see-saw" effect in Q3 driven by strong policy support [4] - The future of the "see-saw" market trend will depend on whether the positive expectations for the economic fundamentals can translate into reality and the direction of monetary policy [4]