宏观：关注国内经济数据发布 【市场资讯】1）习近平在中央经济工作会议上谈科技创新成果：实践证明，对我们"卡脖 子"是卡不住的。2）中国 11 月新增社融 2.49 万亿元，新增人民币贷款 3900 亿元，M2- M1 剪刀差扩大。3）何立峰：2026 年要严防"爆雷"。4）韩文秀：明年将根据形势变化出 台实施增量政策，促进居民收入增长和经济增长同步，既要扩大出口也要增加进口。5）中 国多部委响应中央经济工作会议，央行：灵活高效运用降准降息等多种货币政策工具；发 改委：提振消费要出实招出新招，综合整治"内卷式"竞争和培育发展新动能；商务部等三 部门：加强商务和金融协同，更大力度提振消费；财政部：用好用足各类政府债券资金， 发行超长期特别国债，推动投资止跌回稳。6）特朗普：倾向于让沃什或哈塞特担任美联储 主席，希望一年后利率 1%或更低，自称应当在与美联储讨论利率方面发挥作用。7）摩根 大通 CEO 戴蒙据称支持沃什，警告哈赛特出任损害美联储独立性；戴蒙支持后，预测市场 对沃什出任的概率一度激增 24 个百分点。哈塞特：希望沃什和他无论谁出任都与特朗普 对话，特朗普可向联储提供建议，但无权设定其行动。8）"新美联 ...

铜周报：交割风险提高，铜价再创新高 研究员： 王伟 期货从业证号：F03143400 投资咨询资格证号：Z0022141 第三章 铜基本面分析及周度数据跟踪 5 GALAXY FUTURES 1 综合分析及操作策略 n 宏观面 目录 第一章 综合分析及交易策略 2 第二章 内外盘价格走势 4 美联储12月如期降息并进行技术性扩表，同时鲍威尔发表鸽派言论，美元下跌，对有色金属价格形成支撑。明年5月鲍威尔任期结束，哈塞特成为热门人选，后续市场预期 2026年美国货币政策仍保持宽松。国内12月经济会议定调2026年财政、货币政策相对宽松，宏观情绪进一步回暖。 n 铜矿 n 废铜 n 精铜 11月SMM中国电解铜产量环比增加1.15万吨，环比增幅百分之1.05，同比增幅百分之9.75。一到11月累计，产量同比增加128.94万吨，增幅为百分之11.76。Smm预计12 月电解铜环比上升6.57万吨。 n 消费 从终端来看，国内需求边际走弱，房地产继续拖累市场，光伏、空调排产出现大幅下滑，后期市场主要支撑来源于两网订单、汽车、储能电池，下游对高价接受度不足，价格 突破9万/吨以后，下游消费明显减弱，临近年底，未点价的下 ...

Core Viewpoint - The financial data for November 2025 indicates a continued trend of slowing loan growth, with a focus on optimizing credit structure while maintaining reasonable growth in total financing and broad money supply [1][4][5]. Loan Growth - In the first eleven months of 2025, RMB loans increased by 15.36 trillion yuan, with household loans rising by 533.3 billion yuan and corporate loans increasing by 14.4 trillion yuan [4][5]. - As of the end of November 2025, the total RMB loan balance reached 271 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 6.4%, with a slight decrease in growth rate compared to the previous month [5][6]. - November saw a monthly increase of 390 billion yuan in RMB loans, which is 1,883 billion yuan less than the same month last year [4][5]. Social Financing Scale - The total social financing scale reached 440.07 trillion yuan by the end of November 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 8.5%, surpassing the total for the entire year of 2024 [1][8]. - In November alone, the new social financing amounted to 2.49 trillion yuan, which is 1.67 trillion yuan more than the previous month and 1,597 billion yuan more than the same month last year [8][9]. Direct Financing - Direct financing remains a strong support for social financing, with government bonds, corporate bonds, and RMB loans being the main contributors [9][10]. - Government bond net financing reached 13.15 trillion yuan in the first eleven months, accounting for 39.4% of the total social financing [10]. Monetary Policy - As of the end of November, the broad money supply (M2) stood at 336.99 trillion yuan, growing by 8% year-on-year, while the narrow money supply (M1) grew by 4.9% [11][12]. - The current monetary policy is characterized as moderately accommodative, with expectations for continued easing in 2026, including potential interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions [14].

2025 年12月11日，智通财经消息：美联储宣布将联邦基金利率目标区间下调25个基点至 3.5%-3.75%，此为年内第三次降息，亦是2024年9月启动本轮降息 周期后的第六次降息，幅度与此前两次一致且符合市场预期。 此次降息既是美国国内经济政策节奏的延续，也将在全球金融棋局中掀起波澜——资本流向、汇率走势、跨境投资逻辑或将随政策转向深度调整，其对本 土消费、企业融资及全球货币政策协同的连锁效应，正成为市场瞩目的焦点。 NO.1 | 壹 降息连环击，房贷利率下调倒计时 美联储持续降息，为全球货币政策定调宽松基调。自2024年9月以来，美联储累计降息幅度已达150个基点（包括本次），显著缓解新兴市场压力。国内方 面，央行近期通过公开市场操作释放宽松信号，叠加多家中小银行下调存款利率（如平阳浦发村镇银行三年期利率降至1.3%），市场普遍预期12月LPR将 跟进下调10-15个基点。若落地，首套房贷利率有望跌破3%，进入"2字头"区间。 对中国楼市而言，美联储降息打开了货币政策宽松空间。中信证券研究表明，在预防式降息环境中，对利率敏感的板块通常表现突出。 对于购房者来说，最直接的影响就是房贷利率有望进一步下调。而 ...

12月11日至13日，每日经济新闻与海南国际经济发展局联合主办的2025第十四届上市公司发展年会暨海 南自贸港开放机遇交流大会系列活动在海口举行。广开首席产业研究院院长兼首席经济学家连平12日发 表主旨演讲时指出，中美货币政策同步宽松，为市场提供了良好的货币条件。我国持续实施适度宽松的 货币政策，未来若要满足信贷扩张、支持政府债券发行、稳定资本市场等各方面持续增长的资金需求， 都需要货币政策继续支持商业银行，因此降准降息仍有空间。与此同时，美国货币政策也进一步趋向宽 松，未来还有继续下行空间。若明年美联储主席按特朗普意愿进行人事调整，理事会成员构成相应变 动，将加大美联储降息的可能性。未来降息幅度可能超出市场预期。 每日经济新闻 ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The report suggests that Treasury bond futures are expected to consolidate in the short term, with a trading range due to both upward and downward pressures. In the medium to long term, the policy environment is conducive to a bullish outlook for Treasury bond futures, but short - term upward momentum is limited [1][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Sections 3.1 Variety View Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For the TL2603 variety, the short - term view is "sideways", the medium - term view is "sideways", and the intraday view is "weak". The overall view is "sideways consolidation". The core logic is that the probability of a short - term interest rate cut is low, while the long - term easing expectation still exists [1]. 3.2 Main Variety Price and Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - The intraday view for TL, T, TF, and TS is "weak", and the medium - term view is "sideways", with a reference view of "sideways consolidation". The core logic is that Treasury bond futures rebounded with fluctuations yesterday. The latest inflation data has rebounded but remains weak, and the liquidity of the capital market is loose. The Fed's interest rate cut in December has increased the expectation of monetary easing policy space, leading to a strong performance of Treasury bond futures this week. In the medium to long term, the monetary policy environment tends to be loose, providing strong support for Treasury bond futures. However, there is insufficient need for a short - term interest rate cut, and the concentrated supply of Treasury bonds in the first quarter of next year will bring some pressure, limiting the short - term upward momentum of Treasury bond futures [5].

不过，菲央行认为，随着货币政策宽松效应逐步释放，以及公共支出速度和质量改善，国内需求有望缓 慢回升。 中新社马尼拉12月11日电 (记者 张兴龙)菲律宾中央银行11日宣布，将关键政策利率下调25个基点至 4.50%，为三年来的最低水平。这是今年以来菲央行连续第五次降息。 与此同时，隔夜存款和贷款利率分别下调至4.00%和5.00%。菲央行今年已累计下调关键政策利率100个 基点。 菲央行指出，国内经济增长前景走弱是本次降息的重要原因。受国内治理问题担忧以及全球贸易政策不 确定性影响，菲律宾商业信心持续下滑，经济前景进一步承压。 数据显示，今年第三季度，菲律宾国内生产总值同比增长4.0%，明显低于第二季度的5.5%，亦未达到 政府全年5.5%至6.5%的增长目标区间下限。 此外，通胀前景保持稳定也是本次降息的依据之一。据菲央行最新预测，菲2026年和2027年通胀预期分 别为3.2%和3.0%，较此前预测略有上调，但总体仍处可控区间。 菲央行还暗示，当前宽松周期已接近尾声，未来降息空间有限，后续政策调整将取决于经济与通胀数据 表现。(完) ...

Core Viewpoint - The bond market continues to face downward pressure, with the 10-year government bond yield rising from 1.76% to around 1.86% in November, an increase of nearly 10 basis points [2][5]. Group 1: Market Performance - On December 4, the China Bond Composite Index fell by 0.2%, a significant drop compared to typical fluctuations [4]. - The bond market has been in a downward trend since mid-November, reaching new lows on December 4, which contradicts expectations of a year-end rally typically seen as institutions increase bond purchases [4][5]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The rise in the 10-year government bond yield corresponds with a decline in bond prices, highlighting the inverse relationship between bond prices and yields [3]. - The recent sharp decline in the bond market is attributed to trading behaviors rather than fundamental changes in the macroeconomic environment [11][12]. Group 3: Supply and Demand Factors - The supply of ultra-long bonds is expected to increase, with the issuance of special long-term government bonds projected to reach 1.3 trillion yuan by 2025, creating ongoing pressure on the market [13]. - Demand for long-duration bonds is weakening due to various factors, including banks' limitations on duration assessments and profit requirements, leading to a decrease in their willingness to hold long-term bonds [14]. - Recent regulatory changes have encouraged insurance funds to shift their investment preferences from the bond market to the stock market, further impacting demand for bonds [15]. Group 4: Policy Environment - The central bank is maintaining a loose monetary policy, as indicated by its recent liquidity operations, which aim to stabilize market expectations and provide a basic liquidity guarantee for the bond market [22]. - The central bank's actions, including the resumption of government bond trading operations, signal a potential "official buying" presence in the market, which could help stabilize market confidence [24]. - The overall policy direction remains supportive of a loose monetary environment, which is crucial for the bond market's long-term stability [25][23]. Group 5: Future Outlook - The current market panic may be overextending future pessimistic expectations, and as emotions stabilize, solid policy logic will likely reassert itself in pricing [26]. - The fundamental drivers of the bond market, including economic growth, inflation levels, and monetary policy, will continue to guide its medium to long-term direction [27].

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point reduction in the federal funds rate target range to 3.50% to 3.75%, marking the third rate cut of the year and the sixth since September 2024 [1] - The decision to lower rates is influenced by the dual mandate of stabilizing prices and achieving full employment, with recent data indicating a cooling labor market and a notable decline in private sector employment [2] - The Fed's decision-making is complicated by the lack of official employment and inflation data due to the recent government shutdown, leading to reliance on unofficial data and increasing the risk of misjudgment [2] Group 2 - There are internal divisions within the Fed, with the mainstream faction believing the current rate cut is sufficient to address employment risks while maintaining policy flexibility [2] - The more aggressive faction advocates for larger rate cuts, citing a more severe employment situation than reflected in official data, while the cautious faction worries that rapid rate cuts could prolong inflation cycles or trigger asset bubbles [2] - The effectiveness of rate cuts is subject to delays and is constrained by external factors such as global economic slowdown and geopolitical risks [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - For the stock index, although there is uncertainty in the market due to some funds cashing in profits at the end of the year, the policy support for the capital market remains unchanged. In the short - term, focus on the December Politburo meeting and the Central Economic Work Conference, and in the long - term, the idea is mainly to go long on dips [4]. - For treasury bonds, at the end of the year, the bond market is expected to remain volatile under the background of weak domestic demand and institutional behavior disturbances. Pay attention to the rebound after the bond market is oversold [7]. - For precious metals, after the Fed's interest - rate cut, the silver price has entered an accelerated upward phase. Pay attention to the pressure level of 14,500 yuan/kg for Shanghai silver, and consider taking profit. The reference operating range for Shanghai gold is 940 - 989 yuan/g, and for Shanghai silver is 13,232 - 14,500 yuan/kg [9]. - For non - ferrous metals, most metal prices are affected by factors such as Fed policies, supply and demand, and inventory. Some metals are expected to rise in the short - term, while others may be in a volatile state [12][14][20]. - For black building materials, steel products are expected to continue to oscillate at the bottom, and iron ore is expected to oscillate widely. Glass and soda ash markets are recommended to be treated with a bearish mindset [34][36][38]. - For energy and chemicals, different products have different trends. For example, rubber can be considered for short - term long positions on dips, and crude oil is recommended to wait for the test of OPEC's export price - support intention [53][55]. - For agricultural products, different products have different supply - demand situations. For example, the supply pressure of live pigs is still large, and the egg market may have high - valued contracts [75][77]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macro - financial Category Stock Index - **Market Information**: Commercial aerospace is accelerating "going global", the State Drug Administration will focus on certain products, Vanke will discuss bond extension, and Meta may launch a new model [2]. - **Basis Ratio**: The basis ratios of IF, IC, IM, and IH for different periods are provided [3]. - **Strategy**: Be cautious in the short - term and go long on dips in the long - term [4]. Treasury Bonds - **Market Information**: The prices of TL, T, TF, and TS main contracts have changed. China's November CPI and PPI data are released, and the IMF raises China's economic growth forecast. The central bank conducts reverse repurchase operations [5]. - **Strategy**: The bond market is expected to oscillate, and pay attention to the rebound [7]. Precious Metals - **Market Information**: The prices of Shanghai gold, Shanghai silver, COMEX gold, and COMEX silver change. The Fed's interest - rate cut and balance - sheet expansion support the price of precious metals [8]. - **Strategy**: Pay attention to the pressure level of silver and consider taking profit. Provide reference operating ranges for gold and silver [9]. Non - ferrous Metals Category Copper - **Market Information**: The Fed's interest - rate cut and balance - sheet expansion make copper prices rise. LME and domestic copper inventories change, and the spot premium and import loss are provided [11]. - **Strategy**: Copper prices are expected to rise in the short - term, and pay attention to inventory changes and policy announcements [12]. Aluminum - **Market Information**: Aluminum prices rebound. Domestic and LME aluminum inventories change, and the spot premium and processing fee are provided [13]. - **Strategy**: Aluminum prices are expected to oscillate and rebound [14]. Zinc - **Market Information**: Zinc prices change, and inventory data of domestic and LME zinc are provided [15]. - **Strategy**: In the short - term, zinc prices are expected to be strong following copper and aluminum, but the medium - term supply surplus cycle remains [17]. Lead - **Market Information**: Lead prices decline, and inventory and price data are provided [18]. - **Strategy**: Lead prices are expected to be strong in the short - term due to low domestic social inventory [19]. Nickel - **Market Information**: Nickel prices are weak. Spot prices, cost, and nickel - iron prices are provided [20]. - **Strategy**: Nickel prices may oscillate in the short - term, and wait for further signals [20]. Tin - **Market Information**: Tin prices rise. Supply and demand situations, including import, production, and consumption, are provided [22]. - **Strategy**: Tin prices may strengthen after the release of macro risks. It is recommended to wait and see [24]. Carbonate Lithium - **Market Information**: The price of carbonate lithium rises, and futures and spot prices are provided [25]. - **Strategy**: There is no clear trend in the short - term. It is recommended to wait and see and pay attention to the lithium - battery sector [25]. Alumina - **Market Information**: Alumina prices decline, and inventory, basis, and overseas price data are provided [26]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term, and pay attention to supply - side policies [27]. Stainless Steel - **Market Information**: Stainless steel prices rise, and inventory and raw - material prices are provided [29]. - **Strategy**: The high - inventory pressure is significant. Pay attention to the actual implementation of steel - mill production cuts [29]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market Information**: Cast aluminum alloy prices rebound, and inventory and trading volume data are provided [30]. - **Strategy**: Cast aluminum alloy prices may follow aluminum prices in the short - term [31]. Black Building Materials Category Steel - **Market Information**: The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil rise, and inventory and spot - price data are provided [33]. - **Strategy**: Steel products are expected to oscillate at the bottom, and pay attention to the winter - storage price and policy announcements [34]. Iron Ore - **Market Information**: Iron ore prices rise, and inventory, basis, and shipping data are provided [35]. - **Strategy**: Iron ore prices are expected to oscillate widely, and pay attention to policy expectations and Fed meetings [36]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Market Information**: Glass prices decline, and inventory and trading - volume data are provided. Soda ash prices decline, and inventory and production - capacity data are provided [37][39]. - **Strategy**: Glass is recommended to be treated with a bearish mindset, and soda ash is expected to oscillate weakly [38][39]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Market Information**: Manganese silicon and ferrosilicon prices decline, and spot - price data are provided [40]. - **Strategy**: Pay attention to the black - sector policy and potential cost changes [41][42]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Market Information**: Industrial silicon prices decline, and polysilicon prices change slightly. Supply, demand, and inventory data are provided [43][45]. - **Strategy**: Industrial silicon prices are expected to be weak, and polysilicon prices are expected to oscillate widely [44][48]. Energy and Chemicals Category Rubber - **Market Information**: Rubber prices rebound, and factors such as conflicts and inventory are analyzed. Tire - factory开工率 and inventory data are provided [50][52]. - **Strategy**: Adopt a neutral - to - bullish mindset, and consider short - term long positions on dips [53]. Crude Oil - **Market Information**: Crude oil and refined - oil prices decline, and inventory data of a port are provided [54]. - **Strategy**: Do not be overly bearish on oil prices in the short - term. Wait for the test of OPEC's export price - support intention [55]. Methanol - **Market Information**: Methanol prices change, and basis and inventory data are provided [56]. - **Strategy**: Methanol is expected to be sorted out at a low level. It is recommended to wait and see [56]. Urea - **Market Information**: Urea prices change, and basis and inventory data are provided [57]. - **Strategy**: Urea is expected to build a bottom in an oscillatory manner. Consider long positions on dips [57]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: The prices of pure benzene and styrene decline, and supply, demand, and inventory data are provided [58]. - **Strategy**: Consider going long on non - integrated styrene profits when the inventory inflection point appears [59]. PVC - **Market Information**: PVC prices decline, and cost, supply, demand, and inventory data are provided [60]. - **Strategy**: Adopt a bearish mindset and go short on rallies [61]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: Ethylene glycol prices decline, and supply, demand, and inventory data are provided [62][63]. - **Strategy**: Be aware of the risk of a rebound in the short - term, and the medium - term supply - demand pattern is still weak [64]. PTA - **Market Information**: PTA prices decline, and supply, demand, and inventory data are provided [65]. - **Strategy**: Pay attention to the opportunity of going long on dips based on expectations [66]. p - Xylene - **Market Information**: PX prices decline, and supply, demand, and inventory data are provided [67]. - **Strategy**: Pay attention to the opportunity of going long on dips [68]. Polyethylene (PE) - **Market Information**: PE prices decline, and supply, demand, and inventory data are provided [69]. - **Strategy**: Go short on the LL1 - 5 spread on rallies [70]. Polypropylene (PP) - **Market Information**: PP prices decline, and supply, demand, and inventory data are provided [71]. - **Strategy**: Wait for the change in the cost - side supply - surplus pattern in Q1 next year [72]. Agricultural Products Category Live Pigs - **Market Information**: Pig prices change, and regional supply - demand situations are analyzed [74]. - **Strategy**: Retain the reverse - spread idea, and gradually shift the focus from shorting the near - term contract to longing the far - term contract [75]. Eggs - **Market Information**: Egg prices change, and market trading situations are provided [76]. - **Strategy**: Be cautious about the high - valued contracts [77]. Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - **Market Information**: CBOT soybean prices rise slightly, and domestic soybean and meal supply, demand, and inventory data are provided [78]. - **Strategy**: Soybean meal is expected to oscillate [80]. Oils and Fats - **Market Information**: MPOB data shows the situation of Malaysian palm oil, and domestic oil prices change [81]. - **Strategy**: Try to go long on dips for palm oil [82]. Sugar - **Market Information**: Sugar prices change, and production data of major sugar - producing countries are provided [83]. - **Strategy**: Be bearish on the large - scale trend, and wait and see in the short - term [84]. Cotton - **Market Information**: Cotton prices oscillate, and supply, demand, and inventory data are provided [85]. - **Strategy**: It is difficult for cotton prices to have a unilateral trend [86].