1月10日-11日，以"棋至中局：承前启后建设强国"为主题的中国首席经济学家论坛年会在上海W酒店盛 大召开。作为本次大会的重要支持单位，汇正财经深度参与这场经济领域的年度盛会，与海内外一流银 行、证券、基金、保险、投行、资管等机构的50余位首席经济学家，以及500多位政、产、学界专家学 者和行业翘楚，共话经济大势，共谋发展良策。 顶级智库齐聚论道 解码中国经济与金融核心趋势 周汉民：中国要通过自身的稳定发展为世界经济提供稀缺的稳定性 全国政协常委、民建中央原副主席周汉民表示，2025年的世界经济可概括为低增长成为常态，但增长逻 辑尚未断裂。展望2026年，世界经济的不稳定性将更多来自结构层面，而非周期层面。一是全球增长动 能长期走弱且高度不均衡；二是全球金融体系处于低容错状态；三是地缘经济逻辑正在取代效率逻辑。 连平：中国金融结构正在发生历史性转折 中国首席经济学家论坛理事长、广开首席产业研究院院长连平表示，中国金融结构正在发生历史性转 折。近三年来，尤其是2025年之后，金融领域一大值得关注的新变化是，间接金融增量占比持续下降， 直接金融增量占比稳步上升。 盛松成：适时降准降息,配合积极的财政政策 远是核心 ...

证券研究报告·固定收益·固收点评 固收点评 20260112 2026 年一季度会否出现降准降息？ 2026 年 01 月 12 日 [Table_Tag] [Table_Summary] 事件 ◼ 2025 年 12 月 10 日至 11 日召开的中央经济工作会议，为 2026 年的政 策定调。其中财政政策方面提及"保持必要的财政赤字、债务总规模和 支出总量"，货币政策方面提及"灵活高效运用降准降息等多种政策工 具"，而降准降息何时落地成为一季度的博弈点。 观点 《二级资本债周度数据跟踪 （20260105-20260109）》 证券分析师 李勇 执业证书：S0600519040001 010-66573671 liyong@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 徐沐阳 执业证书：S0600523060003 xumy@dwzq.com.cn 相关研究 《转债策略建议控回撤仍为第一要 务》 2026-01-11 2026-01-11 东吴证券研究所 1 / 4 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 ◼ 降准因素之一：补充季节性的流动性缺口。在 2025 年 12 月 28 日发表 的报告《如何看待 2026 年 ...

以下文章来源于时代财经APP ，作者张昕迎 时代财经APP . 聚焦于企业财经新闻，互联网新闻信息服务许可证编号：44120230006 导语：50万亿存款到期潮来袭。 以广东龙川农商银行在1月7日发行的今年首期大额存单为例，其中分别包括6个月、一年期、两年期三款产品，利率分别为1.15%、1.3%、 1.35%。 更有部分短期大额存单利率已跌至1%左右。例如，安徽石台农商银行1月6日发行的2026年第一期大额存单，期限为三个月，利率仅为1%；无独 有偶，淮北农商银行1月7日发行的三个月期限大额存单，利率也在1%。 在存款利率持续下行的背景下，作为银行的"揽储利器"，相对高息的大额存单产品仍受到不少储户关注。 新年伊始，来自江苏的储户王先生（化名）便在某家国有大行存下了新年的第一张存单，一笔期限三年的30万元大额存款，年利率为1.55%。"只 能说利率一年比一年低，但每年都还是存一笔吧，也有些米面油可拿。"王先生表示。 自今年开年以来，多家银行正在密集推出2026年首期大额存单产品。时代财经根据中国货币网数据统计，截至1月7日，今年已有超过30家银行发 布2026年第一期大额存单发行公告；当下"开门红"活动正 ...

Group 1 - The report indicates that the liquidity environment remains loose despite a significant net withdrawal of 1.655 trillion yuan in OMO operations during the week of January 3 to January 9, 2026, with the DR001 rate staying below 1.3% [2][15][31] - The central bank's recent meetings suggest a shift in attitude towards more flexible monetary policy tools, including potential rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio adjustments to support economic growth [4][34][33] - The upcoming government bond issuance is expected to increase significantly, with a net supply of approximately 1.3 trillion yuan anticipated in January, which may lead to a rise in the central bank's bond purchases [35][36][55] Group 2 - The interbank lending market shows a slight decrease in Shibor rates, with the 1-year Shibor rate falling to 1.65% as of January 9, 2026, indicating a trend of declining borrowing costs [9][63] - The issuance of interbank certificates of deposit has seen a net repayment of 156.4 billion yuan, with the total issuance rising to 1.764 trillion yuan, reflecting a shift in funding dynamics among different types of banks [10][68] - The report highlights that the success rate of issuance for state-owned banks has improved, while other bank types have seen a decline, indicating varying levels of demand and market confidence [69]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The rating for treasury bonds is "Oscillating" [4] Core Viewpoints of the Report - Treasury bond futures fluctuated and declined this week. Although there may be a short - term rebound next week, the medium - term outlook remains bearish. The bearish macro - and micro - level logics for treasury bonds, especially ultra - long bonds, are long - term, so it's necessary to be cautious when betting on a rebound [1][2][13] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. One - Week Review and Views 1.1 This Week's Trend Review - From January 5th to 11th, treasury bond futures fluctuated and declined. Various factors such as changes in stock markets, commodity markets, central bank policies, and inflation data affected the daily trends of treasury bond futures. By January 9th, the settlement prices of the main contracts of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures were 102.338, 105.570, 107.775, and 110.870 yuan respectively, down 0.108, 0.160, 0.050, and 0.510 yuan from last weekend [1][11] 1.2 Next Week's View - There may be a short - term rebound in the bond market next week, but the adjustment pressure remains in the medium term. Factors that may trigger a rebound include stock market adjustments, rising expectations of reserve requirement ratio cuts, and weak economic indicators. However, the factors suppressing the bond market are long - term, and there won't be a major opportunity for the bond market to strengthen in the short term [13][14] 2. Weekly Observation of Interest - Bearing Bonds 2.1 Primary Market - This week, 58 interest - bearing bonds were issued, with a total issuance volume of 763.234 billion yuan and a net financing amount of 349.184 billion yuan. The net financing amount of treasury bonds, local government bonds, and inter - bank certificates of deposit all increased [17][18][20] 2.2 Secondary Market - Treasury bond yields rose. By December 31st, the yields of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bonds were 1.44%, 1.65%, 1.88%, and 2.31% respectively, up 6.46, 2.10, 3.03, and 3.50 basis points from last weekend. The spreads of 10Y - 1Y, 10Y - 5Y, and 30Y - 10Y all widened [23][24][25] 3. Treasury Bond Futures 3.1 Price, Trading Volume, and Open Interest - Treasury bond futures fluctuated and declined. By January 9th, the settlement prices of the main contracts of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures changed compared to last weekend. The trading volumes of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures this week were 42,234, 70,459, 86,203, and 125,268 lots respectively, with changes of - 35, - 8,144, - 14,320, and - 103 lots from last week. The open interests were 76,124, 166,548, 245,351, and 181,430 lots respectively, with changes of - 2,902, + 814, + 3,386, and + 13,012 lots from last week [31][34] 3.2 Basis and IRR - This week, the IRR of each variety generally declined, and the opportunity for cash - and - carry arbitrage strategies is not obvious. Recommended cash - and - carry strategies include laying out short - hedging strategies after the market rebounds and moderately paying attention to widening the basis strategy [38] 3.3 Inter - Delivery and Inter - Variety Spreads - By January 9th, the inter - delivery spreads of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures contracts 2603 - 2606 were - 0.042, + 0.005, + 0.090, and - 0.140 yuan respectively, with changes of + 0.002, - 0.005, + 0.085, and + 0.070 yuan from last weekend [44] 4. Weekly Observation of the Funding Situation - From January 5th to 9th, the central bank conducted 102.2 billion yuan of reverse repurchase operations, with 1.3236 trillion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing, resulting in a net withdrawal of 1.2214 trillion yuan. The funding rates such as R007, DR007, SHIBOR overnight, and SHIBOR 1 - week all declined. The average daily trading volume of inter - bank pledged repurchase increased [46][47][50] 5. Weekly Overseas Observation - The US dollar index strengthened slightly, and the yield of 10Y US treasury bonds fluctuated within a narrow range. By January 9th, the US dollar index rose 0.69% to 99.14 compared to last weekend, and the yield of 10Y US treasury bonds was 4.18%, down 1 basis point from last weekend. The Sino - US 10Y treasury bond yield spread was inverted by 229.9 basis points [56][57] 6. Weekly Observation of High - Frequency Inflation Data - This week, industrial product prices rose across the board, and agricultural product prices showed mixed trends. By January 9th, the South China Industrial Product Index, Metal Index, and Energy and Chemical Index all increased compared to last weekend. The prices of pork, 28 key vegetables, and 7 key fruits also changed compared to last weekend [60][62] 7. Investment Recommendations - It is recommended to pay attention to the short - selling strategy on rallies. Specific strategies include not chasing the high in the short - term rebound next week, paying attention to short - hedging strategies, moderately paying attention to steepening the yield curve strategy after the long - end varieties strengthen, and moderately paying attention to widening the basis strategy [2][15][19]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint presented by Sheng Songcheng is that China's monetary policy is likely to adopt a "small step" approach, with a preference for reserve requirement ratio (RRR) cuts over interest rate reductions, while still allowing for some flexibility in both areas [1][2] - Sheng emphasizes that the monetary policy transmission mechanism in China is complex and relies heavily on the cooperation of commercial banks and the financial system, making it difficult for the central bank to precisely control changes at each stage of the transmission [1] - The central bank's toolbox for monetary policy has been expanding, with various liquidity support tools and secondary market treasury transactions being utilized to manage liquidity and stabilize interest rate fluctuations [2] Group 2 - Sheng argues that RRR cuts are more beneficial than interest rate cuts, as they increase the funds available for commercial banks, thereby better supporting proactive fiscal policies [2] - Since 2016, the statutory RRR has been cut 23 times, reducing the RRR for large deposit-taking financial institutions from 17.5% to 9%, a total decrease of 8.5 percentage points, while the policy interest rate has only been adjusted 14 times [2] - The current net interest margin of commercial banks is at a historical low of 1.42%, significantly down from over 3.5% in 2008, indicating that large interest rate cuts could further pressure banks' operations [3]

1月10日，中国首席经济学家论坛研究院院长、中欧国际工商学院教授盛松成在2026中国首席经济学家 论坛年会上表示，未来一段时间，货币政策"小步走"的可能性较大，降准降息仍有空间。 盛松成表示，货币政策一般聚焦中短期目标，在面临较多不确定性时，更需要"摸着石头过河"。与财政 政策可以直接介入经济活动不同，货币政策一般是间接发挥作用的，需要私人部门、商业银行及整个金 融体系的配合，其实施效果在相当程度上受市场反馈的影响。 从工具运用看，盛松成认为，我国货币政策工具箱日趋丰富，央行正在不断增强政策利率的作用，通过 各类流动性支持工具、二级市场国债买卖等方式投放流动性和调节资金成本，能有效平抑市场短期波 动。 在具体政策走向上，盛松成认为，降准优于降息，与国际上主要经济体的央行相比，我国降准还有较大 空间。（上证报） ...

利好来了！ 如果今天继续收阳线，A股上证指数的表现将继续创造历史。而与此同时，融资余额持续增长，截至1 月8日，上交所融资余额报13060.06亿元，较前一交易日增加77.92亿元；深交所融资余额报12887.61亿 元，较前一交易日增加79.91亿元；两市合计25947.67亿元，较前一交易日增加157.83亿元。 那么，跨年行情是否一马平川？据中信建投研报，过去两年市场开年下跌有一个共性原因是全球流动性 变化和人民币的贬值压力。今年元旦市场面临的流动性环境和汇率环境明显好于前两年。人民币汇率保 持强劲，有利的外部环境或将推动A股元旦后迎来"开门红"行情。同时国内流动性环境整体宽松，也有 利于跨年行情的展开。人民币升值、科技板块利好集中释放、宏观经济预期改善及资金面积极信号等多 重利好共同推动港股开年大涨，这些利好也同样有望推动A股跨年行情的继续演绎。 值得注意的是，今天早上亚太市场整体表现也较好。日经225指数早盘收涨1.1%，报51692.7点。日本东 证指数早盘收涨0.7%。韩国股指由跌转涨。香港市场也跟随走强。恒生科技指数一度上涨超1%。 分析人士认为，A股市场走强的带动作用可能比较明显。而A股走强 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the content about the report industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report analyzes the liquidity situation in December 2025 and makes a forecast for January 2026. In December, the central bank actively injected liquidity, and the funds across the year were stable. The monetary policy emphasizes cross - cycle balance and flexible and efficient use of reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts. In January, the liquidity gap pressure is relatively large, and the potential disturbances on the bank's liability side may increase in the middle and late months, but the funds fluctuation may be relatively mild, and attention should be paid to the marginal changes in the bank's liability pressure after the increase in fiscal factor disturbances [1][3][4]. Summary According to the Directory 1. December 2025 Funds and Liquidity Review: Active Injection, Stable across the Year (1) Funds Review: Narrow - range Fluctuation Continued In December 2025, the overnight fluctuation range narrowed compared with the previous month, and the 7D funds fluctuation range widened. The overnight funds basically ran stably around 1.28%, and the 7D funds were stable around 1.45% from the beginning of the month to the 23rd, then rose continuously until reaching 1.9821% on the 31st. The overnight and 7D funds did not show an inversion. The funds were loose at the beginning of the month, the central bank carried out 100 billion yuan of 3M repurchase on the 5th, and 60 billion yuan of 6M repurchase in the middle of the month, continuing the "short - term contraction and long - term expansion" operation. At the end of the year, affected by seasonal factors, the 7D funds price fluctuated slightly. The funds across the year were relatively stable [11][12]. (2) Liquidity Review: The Central Bank Actively Injected in December, Continuing the "Short - term Contraction and Long - term Expansion" - **Liquidity Aggregate**: In December, the base money may have increased by 1.7 trillion yuan, with government deposits supplementing about 1 trillion yuan, the central bank's net injection totaling 752.8 billion yuan, and foreign exchange funds continuing to withdraw slightly by 7 billion yuan. After deducting the consumption of excess reserves, the excess reserves at the end of the month may have increased by about 1 trillion yuan, and the excess reserve ratio may be around 1.5%, at a seasonal level. The narrow - sense excess reserve level after deducting reverse repurchases may be around 0.8%, close to the seasonal level [36]. - **Open - market Operations**: In December, the central bank's open - market reverse repurchases slightly increased, with a net injection of 28.19 billion yuan. The MLF was injected with 40 billion yuan and 30 billion yuan matured, with a balance of 6.25 trillion yuan. The net injection of the outright reverse repurchase was 20 billion yuan, with a balance of 6.5 trillion yuan. The central bank also net - bought 5 billion yuan of national debt, carried out 26 billion yuan of treasury time deposits, and 15.94 billion yuan of PSL and other structural tools [46][51][54]. 2. December 2025 Monetary Policy Tracking: Focus on Cross - cycle Balance, Flexibly and Efficiently Use Reserve Requirement Ratio Cuts and Interest Rate Cuts In December 2025, important meetings emphasized "flexibly and efficiently using reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts." The overall loosening may be relatively prudent, but the idea of liquidity protection continues. The central bank emphasizes cross - cycle balance to avoid large - scale policy expansion and contraction. The central economic work conference takes promoting stable economic growth and reasonable price recovery as important considerations. The fourth - quarter monetary policy meeting first proposed to "give play to the integrated effect of incremental and existing policies." In a neutral scenario next year, the policy interest rate is likely to be cut once, with a range of 10bp [3][57][63]. 3. January 2026 Gap Prediction: Disturbances May Increase in the Middle and Late Months (1) Rigid Gap: Reserve Requirement Slightly Consumes Excess Reserves, and MLF Maturities Decrease Marginally In January, the increase in general deposits may consume about 32.96 billion yuan of excess reserves. The MLF matures at 20 billion yuan, and the outright reverse repurchase matures at 1.7 trillion yuan (1.1 trillion yuan for 3M and 600 billion yuan for 6M), of which 1.1 trillion yuan of the 3M outright reverse repurchase was renewed on the 7th [69]. (2) Exogenous Shocks: Cash Withdrawal and Non - financial Institution Deposits Consume Liquidity at the End of the Year In January, cash withdrawal and non - financial institution deposits slightly consume excess reserves. Cash withdrawal may consume about 67.87 billion yuan of excess reserves, and non - financial institution deposits may consume about 16.36 billion yuan [71]. (3) Fiscal Factors: A Big Month for Taxation, Coupled with Government Bond Issuance, May Partially Consume Reserves In January, government bond issuance pressure increases. Considering factors such as payment and refund, taxation, and fiscal expenditure, government deposits may consume about 1.2 trillion yuan of liquidity [4][75][76]. (4) Comprehensive Judgment: Stable at the Beginning of the Month, Disturbances May Increase in the Middle and Late Months In January, the liquidity gap pressure is relatively large, but the bank's liquidity level at the beginning of the month may be relatively abundant. Affected by factors such as the maturity of high - interest deposits and the renewal of large - scale certificates of deposit, the potential disturbances on the bank's liability side may increase in the middle and late months. However, considering the current relatively low excess reserve level, the central bank has no intention of large - scale withdrawal, and the Spring Festival is later, so the funds fluctuation may be relatively mild. Attention should be paid to the marginal changes in the bank's liability pressure after the increase in fiscal factor disturbances [4][80].

作者：金融界银行研究院院长 陈国汪 2026年中国人民银行工作会议1月5日—6日召开。会议提出，要继续实施好适度宽松的货币政策。"把促 进经济高质量发展、物价合理回升作为货币政策的重要考量，灵活高效运用降准降息等多种货币政策工 具，保持流动性充裕，保持社会融资条件相对宽松，引导金融总量合理增长、信贷投放均衡，使社会融 资规模、货币供应量增长同经济增长和价格总水平预期目标相匹配。畅通货币政策传导机制，发挥好政 策利率引导作用，做好利率政策执行和监督，促进社会综合融资成本低位运行。有序扩大明示企业贷款 综合融资成本工作覆盖面，推动明示个人贷款综合融资成本"。 人民银行2026年的货币政策将对不同类型银行业金融机构经营发展带来不同的影响。银行业金融机构如 何利用货币政策，错位经营，推动自身差异化特色化发展，将对整个十五五期间的发展带来深远影响。 核心政策要点预测 央行2026年工作会议明确适度宽松货币政策总基调，根据国内经济金融运行情况，考虑美联储可能大幅 降息和中美贸易战等因素，预计2026年货币政策的核心量化特征包括： 降准降息空间：预计全年降准1-2次（释放长期流动性1-2万亿元），降息10-25BP（5年期 ...