Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index rose throughout the day, surpassing the 3900-point mark, reaching its highest level since August 2015, while the ChiNext Index experienced a pullback after an initial surge [1] - Gold stocks saw a collective surge, with companies like Sichuan Gold and Shandong Gold hitting the daily limit [1] - The controlled nuclear fusion concept gained momentum, with over ten stocks including Guoguang Electric and China Nuclear Power hitting the daily limit [1] - The rare earth permanent magnet sector also rallied, with Northern Rare Earth and others reaching the daily limit [1] - Overall, more stocks rose than fell, with over 3000 stocks in the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing markets showing gains, and total trading volume reaching 2.67 trillion [1] Key Highlights Mineral Resources - The gold sector experienced significant gains, with companies like Xingye Silver and Shengtun Mining achieving consecutive daily limits [4] - The catalyst for this surge was the spot gold price breaking the $4000 per ounce mark for the first time in history, with a year-to-date increase of over 52% [4] - The rare earth industry received a boost from the Ministry of Commerce's announcement of export controls on rare earth-related technologies, particularly for applications in semiconductor manufacturing [4][6] Nuclear Fusion - The nuclear fusion concept saw substantial gains, with stocks like Hezhong Intelligent and Yongding Co. hitting the daily limit [7] - A key breakthrough was reported in the construction of China's nuclear fusion device BEST, marking the start of the assembly of its core components [7] - The global nuclear fusion sector is rapidly developing, with significant stock price increases observed in U.S. nuclear fusion companies during the National Day holiday [8] Domestic Chips - The domestic chip sector continued to rise, with companies such as Deep Technology and Tongfu Microelectronics hitting the daily limit [10] - Overseas storage companies saw a collective surge, with SK Hynix rising nearly 15% and Micron increasing by 11% [10] - AMD announced a significant partnership with OpenAI, providing substantial computing power for AI infrastructure, leading to a 43% increase in AMD's stock over three days [10][12] Rare Earths - The rare earth sector is experiencing a supply-demand resonance, with China's export controls enhancing strategic control over the industry [6] - The demand for key elements like praseodymium and neodymium is being driven by global green transitions and carbon neutrality goals [6] - The profitability of rare earth companies is expected to concentrate in the second half of the year due to supply constraints and increased demand [6] Other Active Sectors - Solid-state batteries and robotics also showed active performance in the market, while sectors like film and photolithography faced declines [12]

长假期间事件频发，全球风险资产大涨，国际商品市场整体表现强势，贵金属表现尤为瞩目，其中，国 际现货黄金价格8日突破每盎司4000美元关口，创下历史新高；COMEX黄金期货也在长假期间累计涨 近5%，同步创下历史新高。 节后首个交易日，10月9日早盘国内贵金属双双高开，沪金期货跳空大幅高开，日内涨幅持续扩大，截 至上午收盘，主力合约一度涨超5%，盘中最高触及918.88元／克，续创新高；沪银主力合约一度涨超 3%，同步刷新上市新高。 此外，黄金概念股也大幅高开，截至上午收盘，四川黄金、山东黄金涨停，中金黄金、晓程科技涨超 8%，招金黄金、赤峰黄金、山金国际涨超7%。 在黄金大涨下，国内多个金饰克价再创新高，多家站上1160元／克。9日上午，周生生足金饰品价格达 到1170元／克，周大福为1168元／克，老庙黄金为1160元／克。 市场避险需求强劲，国际金价涨势如虹 自当地时间10月1日起，美国联邦政府正式进入"停摆"状态，成为近七年来首次全面暂停非必要运作的 重大公共事件。据路透社报道，受政府"关门"影响，有约75万名联邦雇员被迫停薪休假，而不能离岗的 军队及边境巡逻人员等其他职员暂时"无薪上班"。更严峻的是， ...

Group 1 - Gold prices have been rising since August 22, closing September with a strong bullish trend, indicating robust market momentum [1] - The Federal Reserve lowered interest rates by 25 basis points during the September meeting, with expectations for further rate cuts increasing due to ongoing labor market weakness [1][4] - As of late October, the probability of a rate cut has risen to nearly 100%, with a 99.4% chance of a 25 basis point cut in October [4] Group 2 - The labor market is showing signs of weakness, with non-farm payrolls increasing by only 22,000 in August and a decrease of 32,000 in September's ADP data [3] - Revised data from the Labor Department indicates a reduction of 911,000 in actual non-farm employment over the past year, with an average monthly increase of only 71,000 [3] - Job openings rose to 7.23 million in August, but hiring plans have dropped to the lowest level since June of the previous year, indicating fewer opportunities for job seekers [3] Group 3 - The recent government shutdown on October 1 has raised concerns about delayed data releases, further increasing the likelihood of a dovish shift from the Federal Reserve [4] - Analysts suggest that if unemployment rates rise significantly, the Federal Reserve may need to adopt more aggressive rate cuts, potentially leading to market volatility [4] - Technically, gold is showing a bullish trend on both weekly and monthly charts, with expectations of reaching around $4,000 in the short term [4]

Report Investment Rating The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. Core Views - Fed officials have significant differences on interest - rate cuts. Some believe the September cut was unnecessary, and the government shutdown makes economic assessment more difficult [6]. - Stock index futures are expected to oscillate with a slightly bullish bias, but investors should avoid over - aggressiveness. There are factors both favorable and unfavorable to the market [7][8]. - Copper supply disruptions are likely to push up prices due to events like the Indonesian mine accident and supply - side policy adjustments [10]. Summary by Directory Fed Interest - Rate Cut Situation - The Fed decided to cut interest rates by 25 basis points in September. Most participants emphasized inflation risks, and there were differences on the number of future cuts. The government shutdown has led to data delays, complicating economic assessment [6]. Stock Index Futures - Maintain a moderately bullish view on stock index futures, but avoid over - aggressiveness. The holiday situation is conducive to the continuation of the bullish market, but regulatory risks and the upcoming earnings season should be noted [7][8]. Copper - Supply disruptions, such as the Indonesian Grasberg mine accident, will reduce copper supply. The industry association advocates controlling smelting capacity expansion, and the market expects increased copper demand from AI, which may push up copper prices [10][21][23]. Other Commodities - **Precious Metals**: Gold is expected to continue hitting new highs, while silver will experience oscillatory adjustments [12][16]. - **Base Metals**: Each base metal has different trends, such as zinc having support, lead lacking drivers, and tin oscillating within a range [12][24][27]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: Different energy and chemical products have various trends, including some expected to open high and then fall, and others to oscillate or be weak [12][15]. - **Agricultural Products**: Agricultural products also show different trends, such as some oscillating weakly and others being slightly bullish [12][15].

Core Viewpoint - The ongoing "shutdown" crisis in the U.S. government has heightened expectations for interest rate cuts, leading to increased risk aversion in the market, as evidenced by the surge in gold prices and strong performance in major overseas stock markets, including Chinese concept stocks [1]. Market Performance Summary - **Gold Prices**: COMEX gold rose from $3883.9 to $4039.9, marking a 4.02% increase during the holiday period [1]. - **Copper Prices**: COMEX copper increased from $4.8810 to $5.0670, reflecting a 3.81% rise [1]. - **Aluminum Prices**: LME aluminum prices went up from $2664.5 to $2750.5, a 3.23% increase [1]. - **Stock Indices**: The DAX 30 index rose from 23775.12 to 24597.13, a 3.46% increase, while the Nasdaq increased from 22591.154 to 23043.379, a 2.00% rise [1]. - **Oil Prices**: Brent crude oil decreased slightly from $66.78 to $66.08, a 1.05% drop, while U.S. crude oil fell from $63.18 to $62.19, a 1.57% decrease [2]. Commodity Performance Summary - **Palm Oil**: Palm oil prices increased from 4369 to 4546, a 4.05% rise [1]. - **Soybean Oil**: CBOT soybean oil rose from 49.67 to 51.34, a 3.36% increase [1]. - **Natural Gas**: U.S. natural gas prices increased from $3.253 to $3.341, a 2.71% rise [1]. - **Zinc Prices**: LME zinc prices rose from $2917.5 to $2995.0, a 2.66% increase [1].

Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. Core Views - During the National Day holiday, there were two major trading themes in global assets: the US government shutdown and the victory of Sanae Takaichi as the president of Japan's Liberal Democratic Party. The global risk appetite is expected to rise driven by liquidity. Japanese stock indices and gold led the gains, while long - term bond yields in major countries such as the US and Japan increased due to concerns about loose fiscal policies and debt sustainability [1][11]. Summary by Directory 1. Holiday News Summary and Thoughts - **US Government Shutdown**: On the evening of September 30, the US Senate failed to pass the annual appropriation bill, leading to a government shutdown. The core reason is the disagreement between the two parties on medical insurance welfare spending. The shutdown may delay important economic data releases and the Fed's interest - rate cut decision. The market's concern about the unsustainability of US government debt has increased [11][12]. - **Sanae Takaichi's Victory**: On October 4, Sanae Takaichi won the Liberal Democratic Party's presidential election. Her victory implies a high probability of becoming Japan's prime minister. Her policy style is expected to continue "Abenomics", with a combination of loose fiscal and monetary policies, which may lead to a strong Japanese stock market, a weak Japanese bond market, and a weak yen. The market's expectation of a Japanese interest - rate hike in October has been postponed [12][13]. - **Gold Price Increase**: During the National Day holiday, the COMEX gold price rose 2.49% in three trading days. The rise is driven by the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation, geopolitical risks, and central banks' gold purchases. The US government shutdown further boosted gold's safe - haven demand [14]. 2. Global Asset Class Performance - **Equity Assets**: During the National Day holiday (October 1 - 6), equity asset prices generally rose, with Japanese stock indices performing outstandingly. In the domestic market, A - shares were on holiday, and Hong Kong stocks rose first and then fell. Overseas, most global stock indices rose after the Fed's September interest - rate cut. Sanae Takaichi's victory pushed up the Japanese stock market [15][19]. - **Commodity Market**: The US government shutdown drove up the safe - haven demand for precious metals. Gold, silver, and copper prices rose significantly, while crude oil prices generally fell [19]. - **Bond Market**: Affected by the US government shutdown and concerns about the sustainability of loose fiscal policies, US 10 - year Treasury bond yields first decreased and then increased, with a net increase of 2.0BP. Japanese bonds showed a steepening trend, with 10 - year Treasury bond yields rising 1.5BP. Italian and German 10 - year Treasury bond yields also increased [20]. 3. Overseas News Summary - **US Government Shutdown and Data Delays**: Key economic data were postponed due to the government shutdown. The new ADP employment was negative, but the decline slowed down. The US 9 - month manufacturing PMI was still in the contraction range, but the contraction speed slowed down, and the non - manufacturing PMI rose significantly [27][30]. - **US 9 - month ISM Manufacturing PMI**: The 9 - month ISM manufacturing PMI was 49.1%, a slight increase from the previous month. Except for output, supplier delivery, and prices, other sub - items were in the contraction range. The output item had the largest month - on - month increase, while new export orders had the largest decline [32]. - **Eurozone Inflation**: In September, the Eurozone CPI increased slightly year - on - year, and the core CPI decreased month - on - month. The PPI decreased both year - on - year and month - on - month [36]. - **Sanae Takaichi's Victory and BOJ Expectations**: Sanae Takaichi won the Liberal Democratic Party's presidential election, and the market's expectation of a BOJ interest - rate hike in October was postponed [39]. 4. Domestic News Summary - **Travel**: During the National Day holiday, the cross - regional population flow and private travel volume increased compared with the same period last year. Domestic and international flight operations also increased, especially international flights [44][45]. - **Movies**: During the National Day holiday, the number of moviegoers and box office revenue were close to those of 2024 but far lower than those of 2019. The number of movie screenings was significantly higher than that of 2019 [51]. - **City Subways**: The subway ridership in most first - tier cities decreased during the National Day holiday [51]. - **Catering**: Catering consumption was booming during the National Day holiday. The order volume of "Must - eat List" restaurants increased significantly, and the sales of key retail and catering enterprises increased year - on - year [58]. - **Real Estate**: Shanghai's second - hand housing transactions decreased compared with 2024, while Beijing's real estate market was active during the National Day holiday. The real - estate market's "stabilization" still needs further confirmation [58][61].

Market Trends & Price Analysis - Gold price surpassed $4,000/ounce due to the ongoing US federal government shutdown and increasing expectations of interest rate cuts [1] - The market is still digesting expectations of interest rate cuts, which will further benefit gold [1] - Increased policy uncertainty and bets on the Federal Reserve's easing policy are keeping safe-haven demand strong [1] Investment & Holdings - Investors are rapidly increasing their holdings of gold ETFs [1] - Gold ETF holdings expanded last week, bringing total holdings to the highest level since September 2022 [1] - Current total holdings are still below the peak of 2020, indicating further room for increased holdings [1] Central Bank & Geopolitical Factors - Central banks are continuing to buy gold, despite record high prices [1] - China's central bank increased its gold holdings for the 11th consecutive month in September [1] - The ongoing trade war and heightened geopolitical risks contribute to the potential for further gold price increases [1] Future Outlook - Expectations of further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve are growing [1] - All factors suggest that gold still has room for further upside [1]

Group 1 - AMD's stock surged by 37% after OpenAI announced a deployment of 6 gigawatts of AMD GPU computing power, resulting in a market capitalization increase of $100 billion [1][3] - The cryptocurrency market experienced significant turmoil, with Ethereum contracts facing liquidations amounting to $143 million, more than double that of Bitcoin, leading to over 130,000 liquidations in 24 hours [1][3] - The surge in AMD's stock price highlights the intense competition for AI computing power, while the cryptocurrency market's volatility is exacerbated by changing policy expectations and market sentiment [5][7] Group 2 - Chinese concept stocks, such as NIO and Xpeng, saw gains as they became a safe haven for funds, with the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index rising by 0.46% [5] - Gold prices surged to $3,950 per ounce, driven by safe-haven demand amid economic uncertainties and geopolitical tensions, with central banks accumulating significant gold reserves [5][7] - The contrasting fortunes of technology giants and retail investors illustrate the disparity in benefits from technological advancements, with retail investors facing significant losses in the cryptocurrency market [7]

Market Performance Review - The Hong Kong stock market showed strong performance this week, with the Hang Seng Index, Hang Seng Composite Index, and Hang Seng Tech Index increasing by +4.34%, +3.88%, and +6.90% respectively [4][14] - All major industry sectors, except telecommunications, experienced gains, with the materials sector leading with a weekly increase of over 10% [4][14] - Technology stocks performed exceptionally well, driving consumer discretionary and information technology sectors to weekly gains exceeding 6% and 5% respectively [4][14] Valuation Levels - As of the end of this week, the 5-year PE (TTM) valuation percentile for the Hang Seng Composite Index stands at 83.81%, indicating a valuation level above the 5-year average by one standard deviation [4] Buyback Statistics - The total buyback amount this week was HKD 3.07 billion, a significant decrease from last week's HKD 4.84 billion [25][26] - Tencent Holdings (0700.HK) led the buybacks with an amount of HKD 2.20 billion, followed by HSBC Holdings (0005.HK) with HKD 0.32 billion [25][26] Southbound Capital Flow - The top net buying companies this week included Alibaba (9988.HK) with a net buy of HKD 15.14 billion, and Tencent Holdings (0700.HK) with HKD 4.65 billion [33] - The top net selling companies included the Tracker Fund of Hong Kong (2800.HK) with a net sell of HKD 2.75 billion, and China Mobile (0941.HK) with HKD 1.40 billion [34] Macroeconomic Environment - The overall economic performance remains stable, with the composite PMI indicating a slight improvement to 50.6, while the manufacturing PMI is at 49.8, showing continued recovery [38][43] - The National Development and Reform Commission is actively promoting a new policy financial tool worth HKD 500 billion to support specific projects [38][39] Market Outlook - The economic data indicates a further weakening trend, with domestic economic conditions still in a bottoming phase; future policies are expected to focus on stimulating domestic demand and supporting key industries [4][43] - The report suggests a favorable outlook for sectors such as automotive, new consumption, innovative pharmaceuticals, and technology, which are expected to benefit from policy support [4][43]

Group 1: Gold Market - Spot gold opened strong on October 6, rising nearly 1% to a record high of $3920.77 per ounce, marking a year-to-date increase of 49% [1] - COMEX gold also reached a new high of $3945.2 per ounce [1][2] - The surge in gold prices is attributed to increased uncertainty from the U.S. government shutdown and rising expectations for interest rate cuts [1] Group 2: Federal Reserve and Interest Rates - The Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point reduction in the federal funds rate target range to 4.00% to 4.25% in September [3] - The probability of a rate cut in October is approximately 95%, with a 99% probability for December [3] - According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the likelihood of maintaining the current rate in October is only 5.4% [3] Group 3: Oil Market - OPEC+ held an online meeting on October 5 to discuss production arrangements for November, with expectations to confirm an increase of at least 137,000 barrels per day [5][6] - Since April, OPEC+ has abandoned its reduction strategy, leading to a significant increase in oil supply [6] - The International Energy Agency (IEA) predicts that if the current production trend continues, oil supply surplus could reach historical highs by 2026 [6]