Core Viewpoint - Mobileye's stock experienced a significant increase of 11.6% due to geopolitical events and macroeconomic factors, outperforming the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite which both gained 0.9% [1] Geopolitical Factors - Investors reacted positively to Iran's missile strikes on U.S. bases in Iraq and Qatar, interpreting them as a sign that military tensions might deescalate [2][5] - The U.S. had conducted airstrikes on Iranian nuclear facilities, raising concerns about potential escalation in the Middle East, but the nature of Iran's retaliatory strikes appeared largely symbolic and preemptively communicated to U.S. officials, resulting in no reported casualties [4][5] - Mobileye, being headquartered in Israel, could face challenges if geopolitical stability worsens, but the current signs of deescalation have positively impacted its stock price [6] Macroeconomic Factors - Comments from Federal Reserve Vice Chair Michelle Bowman suggested that a rate cut could be possible next month, which contributed to the bullish sentiment in the stock market [7][8] - Bowman's remarks indicated that the macroeconomic environment might be more favorable for a rate cut than previously thought, potentially benefiting Mobileye and other growth stocks if the Fed decides to lower rates [8]

Core Insights - BlackSky Technology's stock is experiencing significant gains, with a 15.3% increase noted in recent trading sessions, driven by positive developments in its satellite initiatives and geopolitical dynamics [1][2][3] Company Developments - The company announced a major initiative to expand its satellite network with the introduction of Aros satellites, which will utilize multispectral, large-area collection technologies and are expected to launch in 2027 [2] - The new satellite project is aimed at enhancing country-scale digital mapping and navigation guidance capabilities, indicating a strategic focus on next-generation defense technologies [2][3] Geopolitical Context - Recent military actions, including U.S. bombings of Iranian nuclear facilities and Iran's missile strikes on U.S. bases in Iraq and Qatar, have created a favorable environment for BlackSky, as the company may secure expanded contracts with the U.S. Department of Defense [3][4] - The measured nature of Iran's retaliation is interpreted as a potential de-escalation of tensions, which could contribute to geopolitical stability and a strong demand outlook for BlackSky's technology [4][5]

Group 1: Core Views on Pig Cycle - The stability of pig prices since the beginning of the year indicates a near balance between supply and demand, influenced by the number of breeding sows, with a 7% year-on-year decline in breeding sows correlating with stable pig prices [1] - The pig cycle consists of efficiency and breeding cycles, where the efficiency cycle reflects production efficiency affected by winter diseases, and the breeding cycle shows a strong correlation between the number of breeding sows and price changes [1][2] - The current phase is characterized by a downward trend in pig prices and capacity reduction, with attention needed on price declines, industry losses, and potential policy impacts [2] Group 2: Investment Outlook in Pig Sector - The pig sector is currently in a capacity reduction phase, which historically corresponds to strong stock performance [3] - Major stocks in the sector are at relatively low valuations, and factors such as price declines, disease situations, and policy changes could act as catalysts for stock price increases [3] - Selection of individual stocks should consider funding, cost, and growth balance, with a focus on companies with cost advantages likely to see long-term valuation increases [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The commodity market may fluctuate weakly in the short - term due to pressure on liquidity and demand [1]. - The evolution of the Israel - Iran situation is crucial, determining the short - term direction and pricing logic of major asset classes. There is uncertainty in the short - term, and the subsequent counter - attack strength of Iran needs to be observed [1]. - Risk appetite is under short - term pressure, but the impact is limited with a stable RMB. The implied volatility of energy and the stability of offshore US dollar liquidity should be continuously tracked [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Performance Review - The overall commodity market rose 2.29% last week. The energy and chemical sector had a relatively large increase of 4.11%, while the agricultural products and black sectors rose 2.10% and 0.91% respectively. The precious metals and non - ferrous metals sectors fell 1.76% and 0.09% respectively [1][5]. - Among specific varieties, crude oil, methanol, and short - fiber led the gains with increases of 8.82%, 5.86%, and 5.31% respectively. Gold, pulp, and silver were the top decliners with drops of 1.99%, 1.50%, and 1.44% respectively [1][5]. - The funds in the market decreased, mainly affected by the outflow of funds from precious metals [1][5]. 3.2 Market Outlook by Sector Precious Metals - International gold prices consolidated at high levels due to dovish signals from Fed officials, increased market expectations of interest rate cuts this year, a decline in the US dollar index, and continued gold purchases by global central banks. Silver showed a relatively differentiated performance, fluctuating within a range affected by manufacturing data [2]. Non - Ferrous Metals - The non - ferrous metals sector fluctuated narrowly. Copper prices consolidated at high levels, supported by tight overseas inventories and continued global new energy investment, but the upward momentum slowed due to the Fed's interest rate policy and weak high - level consumption. Aluminum prices found support near the electrolytic aluminum cost line, and the market focused on power costs and inventory destocking [2]. Black Metals - Steel futures continued to rebound, driven by increased expectations of "stable growth" policies and the fermentation of Tangshan production restriction news. Iron ore prices stabilized following steel as port inventories decreased due to the Brazilian rainy season. The fifth round of coke price increases was implemented, and coking coal was more willing to follow the price increase, maintaining the resilience of the black metal industry chain, but the recovery of terminal demand still requires policy support [2]. Energy - Crude oil futures rose significantly due to the escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and the unexpected decline in US crude oil inventories. OPEC+ implemented production cuts well, and the market had positive expectations for the summer oil - using peak season, keeping oil prices strong in the short - term and driving the联动上涨 of fuel oil, asphalt and other varieties [3]. Chemicals - Driven by rising energy prices, the chemical sector generally strengthened. Some varieties such as methanol, PTA, and fuel oil made up for lost ground, and the inventory destocking speed accelerated due to some device overhauls and cost increases. Weak varieties such as PVC and ethylene glycol got short - term support, but the substantial recovery of the downstream has not been clear, and the market is more trading - driven [3]. Agricultural Products - The oil and oilseed sector fluctuated strongly. Although US soybean export data was weak, domestic rapeseed varieties rose supported by domestic production cuts and policy expectations, with rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil leading the gains. Corn prices were under pressure due to import substitution and declining deep - processing profitability. Pig prices fluctuated and corrected due to the off - season consumption and the pressure of slaughter, and industry confidence was still insufficient [3]. 3.3 Commodity - Related Fund Situation - Most gold ETFs had negative weekly returns, with the overall gold ETF having a - 1.86% to - 1.95% decline, and the total scale decreased by 1.06%. The trading volume of gold ETFs decreased significantly [42]. - The energy - chemical futures ETF had a positive weekly return of 5.34%, and its scale increased by 2.07%, but the trading volume decreased by 78.24% [42]. - The soybean meal futures ETF had a weekly return of 0.73%, and its scale increased slightly by 0.17%, with a small decrease in trading volume [42]. - The non - ferrous metal futures ETF had a weekly return of - 0.20%, and its scale increased by 1.19%, with a 23.67% decrease in trading volume [42]. - The silver futures (LOF) had a weekly return of - 0.99%, and its trading volume increased by 64.13% while the scale remained unchanged [42].

Market Movements - US stock index futures are all down, with Dow futures down 0.23%, S&P 500 futures down 0.14%, and Nasdaq futures down 0.13% [1] - European indices also show declines, with Germany's DAX down 0.75%, UK's FTSE 100 down 0.27%, France's CAC40 down 0.94%, and the Euro Stoxx 50 down 0.62% [2][3] - WTI crude oil is up 0.74% at $74.39 per barrel, while Brent crude is up 0.82% at $76.10 per barrel [4] Geopolitical Impact - The escalation of US military strikes in Iran is overshadowing economic issues, with investors focusing on the implications of the Israel-Iran conflict and Trump's tariff policies [5] - Trump's announcement of military action against Iran marks the first direct US intervention since the conflict escalated on June 13, which is expected to influence market sentiment [5] - Key economic indicators, including the core PCE price index, manufacturing and services PMIs, consumer confidence index, and Q1 GDP final value, are set to be released this week [5] Corporate Earnings and Events - Major companies such as Carnival Corporation (CCL.US), FedEx (FDX.US), Micron Technology (MU.US), and Nike (NKE.US) are scheduled to report quarterly earnings [5] Oil and Gas Market Outlook - Goldman Sachs warns that the Iran conflict could push Brent crude oil prices above $100 per barrel, with potential scenarios outlined for significant supply disruptions [6] - If oil flow through the Strait of Hormuz is halved for a month, Brent prices could spike to $110 per barrel, while a reduction of 1.75 million barrels per day from Iran could see prices reach $90 [6] Currency and Economic Analysis - Despite geopolitical tensions, the US dollar has weakened, attributed to structural challenges such as high valuations and difficulties in attracting non-hedged capital inflows [7][8] - Goldman Sachs predicts that the dollar will continue to decline against currencies like the euro and yen, while gold prices are expected to rise [8] Company-Specific News - Tesla (TSLA.US) has launched a limited Robotaxi service in Austin, Texas, utilizing its latest Full Self-Driving software, with strict controls on the number of vehicles and users [9] - Stellantis (STLA.US) has undergone a management restructuring under new CEO Antonio Filosa, which has disappointed investors expecting external leadership to revitalize the company [10] - Eli Lilly (LLY.US) reported positive results for its oral weight-loss drug orforglipron, showing an average weight reduction of nearly 8% at the highest dose after 40 weeks [11] - Novo Nordisk (NVO.US) disclosed high side effect rates for its new weight-loss drug CagriSema, with nearly 80% of users experiencing gastrointestinal issues [12]

Geopolitical Tensions - Closing the Strait of Hormuz would escalate tensions between Iran and the US along with its allies, potentially leading to military confrontations and conflicts [1] - Surrounding countries may find themselves caught in diplomatic struggles, requiring significant international efforts to mediate disputes [1] Oil Supply Disruption - Approximately one-third of global maritime oil transportation passes through the Strait, and its closure would severely restrict oil supply [1] - A significant reduction in oil supply could lead to a sharp increase in international oil prices, creating an energy crisis for oil-importing nations [1] Economic Impact - Rising oil prices could trigger a domino effect, adversely affecting the real economy by increasing production costs and overall prices, thereby raising living costs for the public [1] - There is a risk of a global economic recession due to disrupted international trade and increased transportation costs for goods reliant on oil shipping [1] Shipping Safety Concerns - The closure would pose risks to shipping safety, as vessels would need to take longer routes, increasing travel time and costs while facing higher security threats [3] - The likelihood of shipping accidents may rise due to factors such as piracy and adverse weather conditions [3] Regional Instability - Countries surrounding the Strait that depend on its trade would suffer economically, potentially leading to social unrest and protests among communities reliant on the Strait for their livelihoods [3] - The cumulative effect of internal instability could result in a broader state of turmoil in the region [3]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 姓名：涂伟华 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F3060359 投资咨询证号：Z0011688 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：tuweihua@bcqhgs.com 作者声明 本人具有中国期货业协会 授予的期货从业资格证书，期 货投资咨询资格证书，本人承 诺以勤勉的职业态度，独立、 客观地出具本报告。本报告清 晰准确地反映了本人的研究观 点。本人不会因本报告中的具 体推荐意见或观点而直接或间 接接收到任何形式的报酬。 黑色金属 | 日报 2025 年 6 月 23 日 煤焦日报 专业研究·创造价值 地缘因素扰动，煤焦偏强运行 核心观点 焦炭：6 月 23 日，焦炭主力合约报收于 1385.0 元/吨，日内录得 0.22%的 跌幅。截至收盘，主力合约持仓量为 5.06 万手，较前一交易日仓差为- 1363 手。现货市场方面，23 日焦炭第四轮提降 50/55 元落地，下游压价 情绪仍存，焦炭价格继续走低。期货市场方面，随着利多因素逐渐累积， 原先普遍悲观的市场情绪迎来转变，部分空单止盈离场，市场多空博弈加 剧，带动焦炭期货低位宽幅震荡。展望后市，从 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - On June 13, the US-Iran nuclear negotiation was hopeless, Israel attacked Iran, and the Middle East turmoil escalated with a sharp rise in crude oil prices. After 10 days, oil price growth weakened and gold price first soared then declined, indicating market optimism about the Middle East situation. On June 22, US military planes bombed three Iranian nuclear facilities, and Iran vowed to retaliate, which may boost gold prices. In the long run, gold prices have been oscillating at a high level since the second quarter, facing significant upward pressure. If the Middle East situation is under control, gold prices may remain under pressure in the third quarter due to the increased market risk appetite after the relaxation of US tariff policies [3][26] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review 1.1 Weekly Trend - The report includes a chart of the linkage between the US dollar index and COMEX gold futures closing price, but no specific trend description is provided [7] 1.2 Indicator Price Changes - From June 13 to June 20, COMEX gold decreased by 1.98% from 3,452.60 to 3,384.40; COMEX silver decreased by 1.15% from 36.37 to 35.95; SHFE gold主力 decreased by 1.99% from 794.36 to 778.58; SHFE silver主力 decreased by 1.44% from 8,791.00 to 8,664.00; the US dollar index increased by 0.63% from 98.15 to 98.76; the US dollar against the offshore RMB decreased by 0.14% from 7.19 to 7.18; the 10-year US Treasury real yield decreased by 0.08 from 2.13 to 2.05; the S&P 500 decreased by 0.15% from 5,976.97 to 5,967.84; the US crude oil continuous increased by 2.49% from 73.18 to 75.00; the COMEX gold-silver ratio decreased by 0.83% from 94.93 to 94.14; the SHFE gold-silver ratio decreased by 0.55% from 90.36 to 89.86; the SPDR gold ETF increased by 9.75 from 940.49 to 950.24; the iShare gold ETF increased by 1.76 from 436.00 to 437.76 [8] 2. Gold Price Soars and Then Declines - Last week, the gold price soared and then declined, while the US dollar index bottomed out and rebounded, crude oil showed weak upward momentum, and the three major US stock indexes did not have significant declines, indicating market optimism about the Middle East situation. Over the weekend, the Middle East situation heated up, which is beneficial to the gold price. On June 22, US military planes bombed three Iranian nuclear facilities, and on the day after the Fed's June interest rate meeting, Fed Governor Waller said that the Fed should cut interest rates as early as July [10] 3. Tracking of Other Indicators - Since late May, the net long non-commercial positions on COMEX have been rising. As of June 10, compared with the previous week, long positions decreased by 987, short positions decreased by 563, and net long positions decreased by 424. This indicator is more sensitive to precious metal price trends than gold ETFs but has a lower update frequency and poor timeliness [15] - Since late May, gold ETFs have started to rise, and silver ETFs have risen significantly. In early June, silver prices rose sharply with obvious ETF position increases, showing a combination of price and volume increases. Silver broke through the May 2024 high, and short-term capital attention has rapidly increased, expected to remain strong [17] - Since late April, the gold price soared and then declined, and the gold-silver ratio also declined from a high level. Silver benefited from its precious metal attribute and had a short-term supplementary increase. It broke through the one-year oscillation high, and short-term capital attention increased with strong upward momentum. The gold-silver ratio is expected to continue to be weak [20] - Since June, the spread between the 10-year and 2-year US Treasury yields has decreased slightly overall [22] 4. Conclusion - The analysis is consistent with the core viewpoints, emphasizing that the recent Middle East situation changes may boost gold prices, but in the long run, gold prices face upward pressure and may remain under pressure in the third quarter if the Middle East situation is controllable [3][26]

每日观点 【博时市场点评6月23日】三大指数反弹，计算机涨幅领先 资金追踪 市场成交额为11470.95亿元，较前一交易日上涨。两融余额上周五收报18124.82亿元，较前一交易日下 跌。 数据来源：同花顺，截至2025年6月23日。基金有风险，投资需谨慎。基金管理人承诺以诚实信用、勤 勉尽责的原则管理和运用基金资产，但不保证基金一定盈利，也不保证收益。基金的过往业绩并不预示 其未来表现。 6月22日，在中国人民银行和香港金融管理局共同推动下，跨境支付通正式上线，标志着内地与香港快 速支付系统已实现互联互通，今后两地居民可实时办理跨境汇款。当日，全国首笔跨境支付通内地居民 南向、港人北向汇款业务落地深圳。 简评：跨境支付通是内地与香港合作的重要举措之一，通过连接内地与香港快速支付系统实现互联互 通，有效提升跨境支付效率，便利经贸活动和人员往来，有利于巩固和提升香港国际金融中心及离岸人 民币业务枢纽的地位，更好地满足内地与香港居民对跨境汇款和支付的需求。 市场复盘 6月23日，A股三大指数上涨。截至收盘，上证指数报3381.58点，上涨0.65%；深证成指报10048.39点， 上涨0.43%；创业板指报201 ...

据环球时报报道，欧盟委员会日前单方面宣布取消中欧高层经济对话，距中国对欧开放稀土绿色通道仅三天。 欧盟资料图 欧盟资料图 欧盟取消对话的时间点耐人寻味。7月是欧盟对华电动车加征关税的最后决定期限。同时，特朗普威胁对欧盟汽车征收50%关税的言论甚嚣尘上。欧盟显然 试图以"终止谈判"向中方施压，同时向美国展示协调立场以换取关税豁免。冯德莱恩在抱怨美国对欧盟钢铝高关税的同时，却提议"美欧联手对付中国原材 料主导"，被批短视。特朗普政府在中东的军事行动进一步牵制全球注意力。6月21日，美军B-2隐形轰炸机对伊朗三处核设施实施精确打击。特朗普在社交 媒体宣布行动成功并要求伊朗"结束战争"。这种单边行动与欧盟取消对华对话形成战略呼应，强化了西方阵营的对抗姿态。 欧盟委员会以"当前经贸议题缺乏实质进展空间"为由，取消了原定7月下旬举行的中欧高层经济对话。这一决定正值中国刚为欧盟企业开通稀土出口审批绿 色通道三天后。当时，欧盟委员会主席冯德莱恩正在G7峰会现场与美国协调立场。她特意展示由稀土材料制成的磁铁，暗示欧美将联手应对中国在关键资 源领域的主导地位。 贸易争端已造成实质性损害。2025年前四个月，中国对欧电动汽车出口量 ...