6月23日，国内期市能化板块多数飘绿。其中，甲醇期货主力合约开盘报2518.00元/吨，今日盘中低位 震荡运行；截至午间收盘，甲醇主力最高触及2588.00元，下方探低2484.00元，跌幅达1.89%。 目前来看，甲醇行情呈现震荡下行走势，盘面表现偏弱。对于甲醇后市行情将如何运行，相关机构观点 汇总如下： 瑞达期货（002961）分析称，近期国内甲醇恢复涉及产能产出量多于检修、减产涉及产能产出量，整体 产量小幅增加。西北产区因部分企业延长提货期，加之部分长约提货放缓，致部分企业库存小幅上涨。 上周甲醇港口库存如期去库，周期内阶段性抵港偏少，虽然江苏沿江部分主流库区提货有所减量，但外 轮补充有限以及刚需消耗下整体去库；华南地区下游刚需消耗下，库存亦有下降，短期港口甲醇库存或 将累库，关注沿海市场可流通量变动及国际形势变动。需求方面，中煤蒙大计划内检修，华东企业负荷 稍降，上周国内甲醇制烯烃行业开工率有所下降，本周随着中煤蒙大烯烃检修陆续进行，以及华东地区 烯烃企业可能出现的降负荷预期，烯烃行业开工或继续降低。MA2509合约短线预计在2500-2600区间波 动。 东海期货表示，由于中国进口自伊朗甲醇占总量6 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: Bullish [1] - LPG: Bullish [1] - L: Short - term bullish rebound [1] - PP: Short - term bullish rebound [1] - PVC: Short - term bullish rebound [1] - PX: Bullish [1] - PTA: Short - term bullish [1] - Ethylene glycol: Short - term bullish [1] - Glass: Weak bullish rebound [2] - Soda ash: Low - level consolidation [2] - Caustic soda: Bearish rebound [2] - Methanol: Bullish [2] - Urea: Bearish but with long - position opportunities [2] - Asphalt: Bullish [2] Core Views - The current core driver of the oil market has shifted from supply - demand to geopolitics. The Israel - Iran conflict dominates oil prices, and short - term oil prices are bullish. Other chemical products are also affected by factors such as geopolitics, supply - demand, and cost [1][5]. Summary by Variety Crude Oil - **Market conditions**: On June 20, WTI rose 0.46%, Brent fell 0.09%, and SC rose 2.47%. The current international oil prices are high - level volatile [4]. - **Basic logic**: The core driver is geopolitical, with the Israel - Iran conflict likely to intensify. Iran threatens to block the Strait of Hormuz. Supply: Iran's oil facilities continue to operate. Demand: OPEC forecasts 2025 and 2026 demand growth. Inventory: US commercial crude inventory decreased [5]. - **Strategy**: Do not chase long positions. Consider option strategies. Long - term, due to factors like trade wars and new energy, oil prices are expected to range between $60 - 70 per barrel. Short - term, expect high - level volatility. SC to focus on [560 - 590] [5][6] LPG - **Market conditions**: On June 20, the PG main contract closed at 4557 yuan/ton, up 1.00%. Spot prices in Shandong, East China, and South China had different changes [7]. - **Basic logic**: Geopolitical factors drive up oil prices, which in turn affect LPG. Cost - profit, supply, demand, and inventory all show certain trends. For example, PDH, MTBE, and alkylation开工率 increased, and port inventory decreased [8]. - **Strategy**: Double - buy option strategy. Long - term, the central price may decline. Short - term, due to geopolitics, be cautious with short positions. PG to focus on [4550 - 4750] [9] L - **Market conditions**: The L main contract showed certain price and position changes [10]. - **Basic logic**: Recent shutdown and maintenance of devices, with reduced supply expectations. Downstream demand has a slowdown in restocking. Geopolitical impact on cost weakens. Import may shrink due to the conflict. Maintenance intensity increases this week, and production is expected to decline [10]. - **Strategy**: Short - term bullish. Negative basis, upstream enterprises can consider selling hedging. L to focus on [7350 - 7550] [10] PP - **Market conditions**: The PP main contract price and position changed [13]. - **Basic logic**: Cost support improves, but the terminal market has not improved substantially. Supply pressure is high in June - July. Domestic demand is in the off - season, and export margins turn negative [13]. - **Strategy**: Short - term bullish following the cost. PP to focus on [7150 - 7350] [13] PVC - **Market conditions**: The PVC main contract price and position changed [15]. - **Basic logic**: Macro - policy uncertainty and energy price fluctuations affect the market. Supply remains high, domestic demand is poor, and foreign trade has no growth space. Cost support is weak [15]. - **Strategy**: Short - term bullish rebound following the cost. Short - term long, long - term short. V to focus on [4850 - 5050] [15] PX - **Market conditions**: On June 20, PX spot price in East China was flat, and the PX09 contract price decreased. The basis converged [17]. - **Basic logic**: PX profit improves, and domestic and foreign device loads are high. Supply and demand are expected to increase. Inventory is decreasing but still high. PXN spread is not low, and the basis is converging [18]. - **Strategy**: Look for opportunities to go long at low prices. PX to focus on [7020 - 7200] [18][19] PTA - **Market conditions**: On June 20, PTA spot price in East China increased, and the TA09 contract price decreased. The basis strengthened [20]. - **Basic logic**: Supply pressure is expected to increase due to device restarts and new capacity. Downstream polyester load is high, but terminal weaving load is declining. Inventory is decreasing, processing fees are high [21]. - **Strategy**: Go long at low prices. TA to focus on [4930 - 5080] [21] Ethylene Glycol - **Market conditions**: On June 20, the ethylene glycol spot price in East China increased, and the EG09 contract price decreased. The basis strengthened [22]. - **Basic logic**: Device load increases, but arrivals and imports are low. Demand is expected to weaken, downstream polyester load is high, but terminal weaving load is declining. Inventory is decreasing [23]. - **Strategy**: Look for low - long opportunities. EG to focus on [4480 - 4560] [24] Glass - **Market conditions**: The glass main contract price increased slightly, and the basis weakened [25]. - **Basic logic**: Commodity sentiment warms up, but glass mid - term demand decline has not been alleviated. In the short - term, upstream inventory accumulates, and the cost of coal - based production still has profit, so large - scale cold repair is difficult [26]. - **Strategy**: Reduce short positions. The 5 - day moving average provides weak support. FG to focus on [990 - 1020] [26] Soda Ash - **Market conditions**: The soda ash main contract price decreased slightly, and the basis fluctuated narrowly. Warehouse receipts decreased [28]. - **Basic logic**: Supply increases as device maintenance ends, and new capacity is expected. Demand from float glass and photovoltaic glass weakens. Inventory accumulates, and the cost center moves down [28]. - **Strategy**: Short - term, coal prices rebound, and the cost suppresses the decline speed. Pay attention to the pressure of the 10 - day moving average. SA to focus on [1150 - 1180] [2] Caustic Soda - **Market conditions**: The caustic soda spot price decreased, and the main contract price rebounded weakly. The basis weakened [30]. - **Basic logic**: Supply is at a high level, and demand from alumina decreases. Overall demand is weakening [30]. - **Strategy**: Pay attention to the pressure of the 10 - day moving average. SH to focus on [2230 - 2280] [2] Methanol - **Market conditions**: Not detailed in the text. - **Basic logic**: Upstream profit is good, and domestic device load is high. Iranian supply is expected to decline due to the conflict. Demand feedback is negative, and inventory is low [2]. - **Strategy**: The 09 contract is short - term bullish. Lightly go long, but also pay attention to high - short opportunities. Consider going long on the 01 contract. MA to focus on [2500 - 2600] [2] Urea - **Market conditions**: Not detailed in the text. - **Basic logic**: Supply pressure is high, but agricultural demand is expected to pick up. The Israel - Iran conflict affects international supply, and international prices are short - term bullish [2]. - **Strategy**: Look for long - position opportunities at low prices. UR to focus on [1740 - 1780] [2] Asphalt - **Market conditions**: Not detailed in the text. - **Basic logic**: Price is driven by oil prices. Supply increases, inventory accumulates, and demand shows a "north - strong, south - weak" pattern [2]. - **Strategy**: Temporarily wait and see. BU to focus on [3750 - 3900] [2]

Investment Rating - The report rates the defense and military industry as "Overweight," indicating an expectation for the industry to outperform the overall market [3][29]. Core Insights - The report highlights that geopolitical uncertainties are increasing the valuation of the military industry, with expectations for quarterly performance to gradually materialize, potentially triggering a reversal in stock performance [2][6]. - The military industry is expected to see a gradual increase, particularly in June, driven by external geopolitical factors and the implementation of the 14th Five-Year Plan [6]. - The report emphasizes the importance of the military's fundamental changes, with stable order inflows expected to translate into performance improvements starting in Q2 [6]. - Key investment opportunities are identified in precision-guided weapons, underwater capabilities, AI/robotics, and traditional aircraft supply chains [6]. Market Review - The report notes that the Shenwan Defense and Military Index fell by 2.01%, while the CSI Military Leaders Index dropped by 2.83%, underperforming the Shanghai Composite Index, which fell by 0.51% [3][7]. - The report provides a detailed performance analysis of individual stocks within the military sector, highlighting the top gainers and losers for the week [14][15]. Valuation Changes - The report states that the current PE-TTM for the Shenwan Military Sector is 74.63, placing it in the upper range historically, with significant differentiation among sub-sectors [15][21]. - The report includes a valuation table for key military industry stocks, projecting future earnings and PE ratios [22].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 沪铜周报（6.16~6.20） 大越期货投资咨询部:祝森林 从业资格证号：F3023048 投资咨询证号： Z0013626 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 目录 一、行情回顾 二、基本面（库存结构） 三、市场结构 上周回顾 沪铜周评: 上周沪铜冲高回落，沪铜主力合约下跌0.03%，收报于77990元/吨。宏观面看，地缘政治扰动铜价,美 国关税再起波澜，伊以摩擦加剧，全球不确定加强。国内方面，消费进入淡季，目前来看下游消费意 愿一般。产业端，国内现货交易一般，整体还是刚需交易为主。库存方面，铜库存LME库存99200吨， 上周出现小幅减少，上期所铜库存较上周减1129吨至100814吨。 期货主力 数据来源：博易大师 基本面 1、PMI 2、供需平衡表 3、库存 PMI 数据来源：Wind 供需平衡 2024供需紧平衡，2025过剩 数据来源：Wind 供需平衡 | | ...

中原期货研究所 晨会纪要 2025 第（111）期 发布日期：2025-06-23 | 投资咨询业务资格 | | | --- | --- | | 证监发【2014】217 | 号 | | 中原期货研究所 | 0371-58620081 | | 0371-58620083 | | | 公司官方微信 | | 中原期货研究所 | 化工 | 主力合约 | 2025/6/23 | 2025/6/22 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅/% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 8:00 | 15:00 | | | | | 焦煤 | 796.50 | 795.00 | 1.50 | 0.189 | | | 焦炭 | 1,379.00 | 1,384.50 | -5.50 | -0.397 | | | 天然橡胶 | 13,860.00 | 13,900.00 | -40.0 | -0.288 | | | 20号胶 | 11,970.00 | 12,065.00 | -95.0 | -0.787 | | | 塑料 | 7,416.00 | 7,415.00 | 1.0 | 0.013 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core View of the Report Last week, influenced by the ongoing tension between Israel and Iran, methanol futures continued to rise, with the methanol weighted closing at 2,525 yuan/ton on Friday afternoon, a 5.34% increase from the previous week. The fundamentals of methanol have not improved substantially. In the future, the focus will still be on the development of the conflict between Iran and Israel. If the conflict eases, methanol may fall significantly; if it continues, methanol will remain strong [6][7][10]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Methanol Trend Review - **Futures Market**: From Monday to Thursday last week, methanol futures rose continuously due to the tense conflict between Israel and Iran. On Friday, there was profit - taking, and the futures fluctuated and consolidated. By Friday afternoon, the methanol weighted closed at 2,525 yuan/ton, up 5.34% from the previous week [14]. - **Spot Market**: Iran's methanol production unexpectedly dropped significantly, leading to a decline in exports. It is expected that the arrival volume in China in July will decrease. In the short term, alternative sources like Saudi Arabia and Russia cannot quickly make up for the shortage. This has stimulated the stocking demand of domestic traders, resulting in a continuous decrease in the inventory of northwest factories. The arbitrage window between the inland and ports has opened, but the overall supply is limited. The port is stronger than the inland due to weak downstream demand [14]. 2. Methanol Fundamental Analysis - **Supply**: Last week, China's methanol production was 1,997,846 tons, an increase of 15,190 tons from the previous week. The device capacity utilization rate was 88.65%, a 0.76% increase. The number of resumed production devices was more than that of maintenance devices [16]. - **Demand**: As of June 19, the average weekly start - up of the olefin industry decreased. The average weekly capacity utilization rate of MTO devices in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions was 83.53%, a 0.73 - percentage - point decrease from the previous week. The overall demand for traditional downstream products was weak [18]. - **Inventory**: As of June 18, the inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises was 367,400 tons, a 3.10% decrease from the previous period; the order backlog of sample enterprises was 273,800 tons, a 9.37% decrease. The port sample inventory was 586,400 tons, a 10.09% decrease [21][27]. - **Profit**: Last week, the average weekly profit of domestic methanol samples increased significantly. The profit margins of coal - based and coke - oven gas - based production increased, and the loss of gas - based production narrowed [31]. 3. Methanol Trend Outlook - **Supply**: This week, the number of resumed production devices is more than that of maintenance devices. It is expected that China's methanol production will be about 2.0763 million tons, and the capacity utilization rate will be about 92.14%, an increase from last week [35]. - **Demand**: The start - up of the olefin industry will continue to decrease. The capacity utilization rates of dimethyl ether, glacial acetic acid, and chlorides are expected to increase, while those of formaldehyde are expected to decrease [36]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises is expected to be 347,600 tons, a continued slight decrease. The port inventory is expected to increase [38].

Market Reaction - Asian markets opened in a typical risk-averse mode following the U.S. airstrikes on Iranian nuclear facilities, but there was no panic selling [1] - U.S. stock futures initially opened down about 1% but narrowed the decline to around 0.4% [1] - Oil prices surged initially, with WTI crude reaching $79 per barrel before retreating to $76, reflecting a 2.95% increase [5] - The dollar strengthened against the euro and most major currencies, with the dollar index rising 0.22% to 98.99 [7] - Gold prices initially spiked but then fell back, currently reported at $3,369 per ounce [9] Geopolitical Context - President Trump announced the completion of airstrikes on three Iranian nuclear facilities, suggesting a potential regime change in Iran [1] - Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu stated that Iran's nuclear and missile programs have been significantly damaged, with military actions nearing completion [1] - Despite the escalating geopolitical tensions, Iran has not shown clear signs of retaliation, leading to a relatively restrained market response [2] Oil Market Implications - Analysts warn that if Iran were to block the Strait of Hormuz, oil prices could spike to $120-$150 per barrel, significantly impacting the global economy [2][7] - The market is closely monitoring Iran's potential actions, with a 35% probability estimated for the closure of the Strait of Hormuz [7] Cryptocurrency Market - Bitcoin experienced a significant drop, falling below the $100,000 mark for the first time since May, while Ethereum also saw substantial declines [10]

2025年06月23日 | 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报 | | --- | 观点与策略 | 黄金：地缘政治有所升级 | 3 | | --- | --- | | 白银：继续冲高 | 3 | | 铜：伦铜现货走强，支撑价格 | 5 | | 铝：等待库存拐点 | 7 | | 氧化铝：窄幅震荡 | 7 | | 铝合金：区间震荡 | 7 | | 锌：供应过剩或渐显，偏承压 | 9 | | 铅：供需双弱，震荡运行 | 10 | | 锡：紧现实弱预期 | 11 | | 镍：远端镍矿端预期松动，冶炼端限制上方弹性 | 13 | | 不锈钢：供需边际双弱，钢价低位震荡 | 13 | | 碳酸锂：临近交割月，关注仓单接货意愿 | 15 | | 工业硅：上方空间有限，逢高空配 | 17 | | 多晶硅：继续空配 | 17 | | 铁矿石：预期反复，区间震荡 | 19 | | 螺纹钢：宽幅震荡 | 20 | | 热轧卷板：宽幅震荡 | 20 | | 硅铁：板块情绪共振，宽幅震荡 | 22 | | 锰硅：矿端报价坚挺，宽幅震荡 | 22 | | 焦炭：铁水增量，宽幅震荡 | 24 | | 焦煤：铁水增量，宽幅震荡 | 24 | | 动力 ...

聚烯烃产业期现日报 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1292号 2025年6月23日 免费声明 本报告中的信息均来源于被广发期货有限公司认为可靠的已公开资料、但厂发期货对这些信息的能确性及完整体不作任何保证。本报告反映研究人 员的不同观点、见解及分析方法。并不代表广发期货或其附属机构的立场。 在任何情况下。 报告内容仅供参考,报告中的信息或所表达的意见并不 风险自担。本报告旨在发送给广发期货特定客户及其他专业人士,题权归广发期货所有,未经 构成所述品种买卖的出价或询价。 投资者据此投资, 广发期货书面授权. 任何人不得对本报告进行任何形式的发布、复制。如引用、刊发、需注明出处为广发期货。 6 关注微信公众号 知识图强,求实奉献,客户至上,合作共赢 张晓珍 Z0003135 些业期现日报 | 品中 | 6月20日 | 6月19日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | L2601收盘价 | 7347 | 7399 | -55 | -0.70% | | | L2509 收盘价 | 7415 | 7462 | -47 | -0.63% ...

研究报告 橡胶周报 地缘提振供需宽松，盘面或将区间震荡 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2012】1087 号 期货从业资格证号：F0305828 投资咨询资格证号：Z0011566 电话：0931-8894545 邮箱：2367823725@qq.com 本报告中所有观点仅供参 考，请投资者务必阅读正文之后 的免责声明。 摘要： 【行情复盘】 研究员：张正卯 上周天然橡胶主力合约 RU2509 价格在 13705-14100 元/吨 之间运行，上周期货价格窄幅震荡，总体微幅上涨。 截至 2025 年 6 月 20 日上周五下午收盘，天然橡胶主力合 约 RU2509 报收 13900 元/吨，当周上涨 25 点，涨幅 0.18%。 【操作策略】 预计天然橡胶期货主力合约本周或将维持区间震荡。 操作上，建议保持观望，激进投资者可考虑区间操作。 *特别声明：本报告基于公开信息编制而成，报告对这些信息的准确性及完整性不作任何保证。本文中 的操作建议为研究人员利用相关公开信息的分析得出，仅供投资者参考，据此入市风险自负。 3 9 研究报告 【后市展望】 上周国内天然橡胶期货主力合约价格窄幅震荡，总体微幅 上涨。 报告日 ...