Core Insights - RadexMarkets observes a significant asset structure transformation among central banks and sovereign wealth funds, shifting from traditional government bonds to gold assets in the current global macroeconomic context [1][3] - Ray Dalio highlights that the global financial system is at a sensitive moment of risk accumulation, with historical cycles indicating that rising debt levels can lead to liquidity crises [1][4] Debt Cycle Dynamics - Dalio states that when debt levels are low relative to income, moderate borrowing does not trigger systemic crises; however, as total debt and interest payments rise, it crowds out social spending, leading to liquidity issues [4] - RadexMarkets believes that sovereign credit expansion provides short-term relief but sets the stage for long-term currency devaluation [4] Market Supply and Demand Imbalance - The imbalance in market supply and demand is critical, as high levels of dollar-denominated debt and increasing supply diminish buyer confidence in future returns [2][4] - This new risk encourages sovereign investors to abandon traditional fiat currencies in favor of hard currencies, with gold's rising status being a key finding in RadexMarkets' research [2][4] Geopolitical Risks - Increasing geopolitical conflicts add complexity to asset safety, with risks associated with holding dollar-denominated debt stemming from supply-demand imbalances and potential capital restrictions or sanctions [5] - Dalio emphasizes that gold's status as a "neutral asset" becomes apparent when investors recognize the risks of asset freezing or devaluation [5] Historical Context and Gold's Role - Since 1971, central banks have typically responded to debt crises by creating substantial amounts of money and credit, resulting in soaring inflation and rising gold prices [5] - Dalio asserts that gold has demonstrated exceptional purchasing power maintenance over the long term, making it the best alternative currency in response to "paper debt crises" [5] Strategic Asset Allocation - RadexMarkets advises ordinary investors to view gold not merely as a short-term speculative tool but as a strategic asset allocation of 5% to 15% [5][6] - In light of dual challenges from currency system fluctuations and geopolitical reshaping, the defensive value of gold is being redefined in the market [6] - Investors are encouraged to shift their perspective from "tactical play" to "strategic reserve," especially during heightened debt default risks or intense currency competition, with gold serving as a solid safe haven for personal wealth [6]

Core Insights - Silver and tin futures prices have experienced significant volatility and have reached historical highs since the beginning of 2026, prompting the Shanghai Futures Exchange to tighten trading limits on these commodities [1][3]. Group 1: Trading Limit Adjustments - On January 26, the Shanghai Futures Exchange announced adjustments to trading limits for silver and tin futures, effective from the night trading session, with a maximum of 800 contracts for silver and 200 contracts for tin for non-futures company members and special overseas non-broker participants [3]. - Since December 2025, the exchange has made four adjustments to silver futures trading limits and two adjustments to tin futures trading limits [3]. Group 2: Market Analysis - The recent surge in precious and non-ferrous metal prices is attributed to a complex interplay of factors, including geopolitical conflicts, supply constraints, and long-term demand expectations [5]. - Analysts suggest that while macroeconomic uncertainties continue to support prices, the short-term supply-demand structural imbalances for silver and tin remain challenging, indicating a sustained upward trend in the long term [7].

相关机构表示，在地缘冲突持续与全球去美元化加速后，金价加速走强。展望后市，美国对外政策不确 定性或持续加剧全球宏观的波动，由美国财政信用和美元共同构筑的稳定支柱正受到其传统盟友的质 疑，打开了资本流动和避险逻辑的新篇章。虽然特朗普政府对欧洲极限施压后又撤回，但即便格陵兰争 议进入协议阶段，达成共识也需要时间，且摇摆不定的不确定性状态或持续支撑避险情绪。伴随近期 ETF等资金流入，短期内或可能延续涨幅、加速赶顶。 （文章来源：每日经济新闻） 中长期看，黄金价格中枢仍有望上行，投资者或可考虑后续回调参与、逢低分批布局。关注直接投资实 物黄金，免征增值税的黄金基金ETF（518800），覆盖黄金全产业链股票的黄金股票ETF（517400）。 ...

文 ： 华创证券首席经济学家 张瑜 执业证号：S0360518090001 联系人： 付春生(18482259975) 报告摘要 伊朗骚乱似有平息，但"灰犀牛"的地缘风险仍存。本篇报告主要概述伊朗的基本经济国情，侧重自然资 源、优势产业和出口结构。 一、伊朗近期发生了什么？ 经济困境引发各地抗议，逐步升级为伊朗全国大规模骚乱，伤亡人数是过往动荡之最。 去年11月开始，伊 朗多地因物价上涨、货币贬值等问题发生抗议，随后扩散至全境并出现暴力骚乱和大规模伤亡，期间全面 断网8天。1月下旬局势趋于缓和。1月21日伊朗官方称近期骚乱事件导致3117人死亡。 地缘冲突风险仍存 。1月22日特朗普表示美国"大型舰队"正驶向伊朗周边。 从经济地理位置看，伊朗对霍尔木兹海峡具有强大控制力。 霍尔木兹海峡是全球能源贸易的咽喉要道，流 经该海峡的石油和其他液体燃料贸易量约占全球消费量约20%，占全球海运贸易量约27%，流经该海峡的 LNG贸易量约占全球LNG贸易量的20%，约占全球天然气贸易量的9%。 二、伊朗的主要自然资源 1、石油：全球探明原油储量第三，目前日产量约320万桶/日，出口量约180万桶/日。 伊朗探明原油储量约 ...

在全球经济和关税目前,实质上是贸易政策不确定性的再暴露;一方面,贸易摩擦会扰动跨国供应链与企业 盈利预期,二来则可能促使企业与主权实体寻求硬通货或对冲工具以规避信用与汇率风险,因此即便关税 最终未落实,市场的信息传导与风险重估已在短期内为金银提供了"避风港"属性的支撑。 地缘风险放大避险情绪 近期推动黄金白银在新一周开盘阶段出现明显冲高,市场在政治、地缘与货币层面的不确定性持续累积 下,避险情绪快速升温;同时,美日汇率层面罕见互动使美元承压,进一步强化贵金属的"美元计价"优势。高 地集团发现回顾本轮行情,金价上涨的核心并非单一因素,而是贸易摩擦升级、地缘冲突风险加剧以及全 球货币政策预期变化三条逻辑共同发酵。 从关税言论看政治风险对贵金属的路径 本周四的美联储会议成为时间上的关键节点。当前市场普遍认为短期内降息不会立即到来,本次会议焦 点不在利率数字本身,而是鲍威尔会后讲话对"降息节奏"和对经济/通胀判断的传递,如果美联储偏向鸽派 且暗示加速降息路径,实际利率预期将下降,进而利好贵金属;相反,若措辞偏鹰或强调耐心,短期贵金属波 动可能受压。总体而言,议息周更像是波动的引爆点,而非决定性逆转因素。 白银的双重属 ...

1月27日，周评我们说本周一开盘黄金将直接奔向5000大关，昨天周一黄金开盘后一路大涨破了5000美 元，黄金屡破新高已不算新闻，但是开启5000美元新时代却是人类历史上首次。特朗普还在任，牛市就 很难结束，其在伊朗，格陵兰岛，加拿大，古巴等多个问题搞事，地缘冲突频发，黄金是最优质的战术 性避险资产，势必会受到追捧。 1月27日，周评我们说本周一开盘黄金将直接奔向5000大关，昨天周一黄金开盘后一路大涨破了5000美 元，黄金屡破新高已不算新闻，但是开启5000美元新时代却是人类历史上首次。特朗普还在任，牛市就 很难结束，其在伊朗，格陵兰岛，加拿大，古巴等多个问题搞事，地缘冲突频发，黄金是最优质的战术 性避险资产，势必会受到追捧。 昨日我们提到了围绕5030防守多，午后黄金回踩止步5050后给出直接多，破位5100后触及5111后迅速回 落，1小时线收取长上影线，可见买盘在刷新5111高点之后的抛售力度还是挺大的，但是二度回撤至 5050形成小双底后继续多，目标看30美金以上，有没有去进场？美盘黄金探高未破高承压回落，跌破 5050低点后出现惯性下跌。 前面涨的太猛了，加速上冲之后抵达风险区，持续未能刷新新高 ...

Core Insights - Recent surge in international gold prices, exceeding $5100 per ounce, has led to significant movements in the A-share precious metals sector and a concurrent rise in the banking and insurance sectors [1] - Despite the gold price increase, nearly 4500 stocks underperformed expectations, with trading volume decreasing, indicating a complex market sentiment [1] Group 1: Market Behavior - Investors often fall into the trap of making impulsive decisions based on market fluctuations and news, leading to suboptimal trading outcomes [3] - Emotional responses to market volatility can result in premature exits from positions, causing investors to miss out on potential gains [3] Group 2: Quantitative Analysis - Utilizing quantitative big data can help filter out market noise and identify significant trading signals, allowing for more informed decision-making [6] - Advanced quantitative models can separate different trading behaviors, revealing the true market state and enhancing understanding of market dynamics [6][10] Group 3: Strong Behavior Insights - "Strong behavior" in trading, such as "strong replenishment" and "strong liquidation," indicates significant capital movements and should be closely monitored for strategic insights [10][14] - These strong behaviors reflect planned capital actions and provide clearer operational rhythms, reducing reliance on emotional judgment and speculative news [10][14] Group 4: Data-Driven Decision Making - Transitioning from intuitive trading to data-driven analysis can help investors avoid emotional pitfalls and improve their trading strategies [14] - By leveraging quantitative data, investors can maintain a steady approach in volatile markets, gradually building positive feedback from their investments [14]

铜冠金源期货：预计短期棕榈油震荡偏强运行 宏观方面，美国11月耐用品订单环比增长5.3%，经济仍显示韧性，但地缘冲突影响持续，避险情绪升 温；油价遇阻力位回落。基本面上，美国对加拿大施压威胁加征100%关税，加总理表示并不寻求与中 国达成贸易协议，加菜籽远端进口仍有变数；当前澳菜籽到港，但同比偏少，短期国内偏紧格局不改， 支撑菜油大幅度走强。高频数据对马棕油产量减少，出口增加进一步确认，预计1月底库存将下滑，对 价格有提振。预计短期棕榈油震荡偏强运行。 宁证期货：短期棕榈油易涨难跌 1月27日盘中，棕榈油期货主力合约遭遇一波急速上涨，最高上探至9208.00元。截止发稿，棕榈油主力 合约报9202.00元，涨幅2.27%。 棕榈油期货主力涨超2%，对于后市行情如何，相关机构该如何评价？ 机构 核心观点 铜冠金源期货 预计短期棕榈油震荡偏强运行 宁证期货 短期棕榈油易涨难跌 中辉期货 棕榈油近期反弹较高，追多谨慎对待 马来西亚最新出口数据公布，棕榈油出口环比涨幅均较此前1-20日下降；从产量来看，减产幅度同样不 及此前1-20日。但是加拿大与中国的贸易协定因美国而搁置，加菜籽依然无法进口，带动棕榈油价格走 强。 ...

中辉能化观点 | | 中辉能化观点 | | | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑 | | | | 地缘反复扰动，油价短线反弹。地缘：中东地缘反复，油价反弹；核心驱 动：淡季供给过剩，消费淡季叠加 OPEC+仍在扩产周期，全球海上浮仓 | | 原油 | 空头反弹 | 以及在途原油激增，美国原油和成品油库存均累库，原油供给过剩压力逐 | | ★ | | 渐上升；关注变量：美国页岩油产量变化，俄乌以及中东地缘进展。 | | | | 中东地缘反复，跟随成本端反弹。成本端油价短期受地缘扰动反弹，当前 | | LPG | 空头反弹 | 原油仍过剩，中枢或继续下移；供需方面，液化气商品量出现下降，PDH | | ★ | | 开工率维持在 70%上方，下游化工需求存在韧性；库存端利多，港口库存 | | | | 环比下降。 | | L | | 短期跟随天然气偏强震荡，标品供应回升抑制反弹空间，关注寒潮和地缘 | | | 空头反弹 | 变动。两油石化库存暂无明显压力，上游出厂价偏强。近期线性排产继续 | | ★ | | 回升，农膜需求淡季，终端补库意愿不足，基本面供强需弱存累库预期， | ...

金瑞期货分析称，宏观层面，地缘冲突升级推升金属板块风险溢价。基本面方面，佤邦炸药审批进度加 快，供应有恢复预期，锡加工费上调3000元，冶炼环节利润修复预期升温。需求端受锡价高位压制，下 游企业补库意愿持续低迷，市场整体维持谨慎观望态势。展望后市，尽管锡矿供应存在环比修复预期， 但供应依旧偏紧，叠加地缘持续紧张与光伏抢出口支撑，沪锡价格预计延续高位震荡格局。 1月26日，国内期市有色金属板块大面积飘红。其中，沪锡期货主力合约开盘报438850.00元/吨，今日 盘中高位震荡运行；截至发稿，沪锡主力最高触及462720.00元，下方探低424340.00元，涨幅达2.71% 附近。 新湖期货表示，当前市场情绪亢奋，物质实现影响的消息也可能被炒作。在当前亢奋的情绪下，锡价继 续强势，但也需警惕市场降温后的回调。操作上不建议追高。中期建议逢低偏多对待。 目前来看，沪锡行情呈现震荡上行走势，盘面表现偏强。对于沪锡后市行情将如何运行，相关机构观点 汇总如下： 广州期货指出，当前整体宏观氛围中性偏多，贵金属继续上冲引领有色金属，锡矿供应脆弱新兴需求刚 性预期赋予价格弹性，资金参与度高涨，价格波动率或继续放大，短期内锡价易 ...