Core Viewpoint - International gold prices have reached a historic high, touching $4000.1 per ounce for the first time, driven by various geopolitical and economic factors [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - On October 7, gold prices continued to rise, with a peak of $4000 per ounce during the Asian trading session [1] - As of 8:33 AM Beijing time on October 7, December gold futures were reported at $3999.9 per ounce, reflecting an increase of 0.59% [1] Group 2: Influencing Factors - The ongoing U.S. federal government "shutdown" crisis has contributed to increased investor interest in gold as a safe-haven asset [1] - There is a growing market expectation for multiple interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, further driving demand for gold [1] - Continued geopolitical conflicts in various regions around the world are also influencing investors to seek refuge in gold [1]

Core Viewpoint - International gold prices have reached a historic high, touching $4000.1 per ounce for the first time, driven by various geopolitical and economic factors, including the ongoing U.S. government shutdown and expectations of multiple interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [1][3]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The recent surge in gold prices is attributed to increased investor demand for safe-haven assets amid geopolitical tensions and economic uncertainties [3]. - As of October 7, 2023, the December gold futures price on the New York Commodity Exchange was reported at $3999.9 per ounce, reflecting a 0.59% increase [3]. Group 2: Future Price Predictions - BMO Capital Markets has significantly raised its price forecasts for gold and silver, predicting an average gold price of $3900 per ounce in Q4 2025, an 8% increase from previous estimates, and $4400 per ounce in 2026, a 26% increase [4]. - UBS has also released a bullish outlook for the gold market, forecasting that gold prices will reach $4200 per ounce by mid-2026, supported by a weaker dollar, central bank purchases, and increased ETF investments [4].

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in gold prices is driven by expectations of interest rate cuts, political risks from a potential U.S. government shutdown, and ongoing geopolitical tensions, particularly the Russia-Ukraine conflict [2][3][4][5]. Group 1: Economic Factors - The strongest driver for the gold market is the rising expectation of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, with a 89.3% probability of a cut in October [3]. - The U.S. personal consumption expenditure price index data aligns with market expectations, providing a conducive environment for rate cuts [3]. - The decline in bond yields, with the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield dropping below 4.14%, supports the upward trend in gold prices [3]. Group 2: Political Risks - The political deadlock in Washington is a significant factor pushing gold prices higher, as a government shutdown could lead to economic uncertainty and volatility in the markets [4]. - The potential delay in the release of the non-farm payroll report due to the shutdown adds to the uncertainty, further enhancing gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset [4]. Group 3: Geopolitical Tensions - The ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict continues to escalate, reinforcing gold's status as a safe-haven asset amid geopolitical instability [5]. - A decline in the U.S. dollar index, which fell by 0.24% to 97.92, provides additional support for gold prices as it lowers the cost for overseas buyers [5]. Group 4: Market Sentiment - There is a growing consensus among institutional investors regarding the bullish outlook for gold, driven by the combination of political risks and interest rate cut expectations [6]. - The flattening of the yield curve, with the spread between two-year and ten-year Treasury yields narrowing to 51 basis points, indicates weakening confidence in economic growth [6]. - The divergence in opinions among Federal Reserve policymakers regarding inflation and labor market conditions adds to the uncertainty, enhancing gold's investment appeal [6].

Core Insights - Gold prices have reached a historic high of $3,824.5 per ounce, leading to the total value of U.S. Treasury's gold reserves exceeding $1 trillion [1][3] - The official book value of these gold reserves, based on a price set in 1973, is just over $11 billion, indicating a significant disparity with the current market value [3] - Factors such as anticipated interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, geopolitical conflicts, and trade wars have contributed to the rising gold prices, which have increased by 45% this year [3] Group 1 - The U.S. Treasury's gold reserves total approximately 261.5 million ounces [3] - The current market value of gold reserves is over 90 times the official book value [3] - Analysts from institutions like Goldman Sachs and Deutsche Bank expect the upward trend in gold prices to continue [3] Group 2 - Gold prices are projected to achieve a third consecutive quarter of increases [3] - The recent surge in gold prices is attributed to various economic and geopolitical factors [3] - The speculation regarding the revaluation of gold reserves by the U.S. government has been denied by Treasury Secretary [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Trade war uncertainties persist, demand for the Container Shipping Index (European Line) futures is weakly expected, and the futures price fluctuates significantly. Investors are advised to be cautious, pay attention to the operation rhythm and risk control, and track geopolitical, shipping capacity, and cargo volume data in a timely manner [1] 3. Summary according to Relevant Catalogs Market Data - EC main contract closing price is 1115.000, down 35.8; EC second - main contract closing price is 1756.3, down 24.30. The spread between EC2510 - EC2512 is - 641.30, down 3.30; the spread between EC2510 - EC2602 is - 552.00, down 6.00. The EC contract basis is 5.49, and the main contract position is 29314, down 3117 [1] - SCFIS (European Line) (weekly) is 1120.49, down 134.43; SCFIS (US West Line) (weekly) is 921.25, down 272.39. SCFI (composite index) (weekly) is 1114.52, down 83.69. Container ship capacity is 1227.97 (ten thousand TEUs), up 0.04 [1] - CCFI (composite index) (weekly) is 1087.41, down 32.82; CCFI (European Line) (weekly) is 1401.91, down 69.06. The Baltic Dry Index (daily) is 2259.00, up 7.00; the Panamax Freight Index (daily) is 1832.00, up 3.00 [1] - The average charter price of Panamax ships is 14769.00, unchanged; the average charter price of Capesize ships is 30090.00, down 400.00 [1] Industry News - US President Trump announced that from October 1st, a new round of high - tariffs will be imposed on multiple imported products, but for trade partners such as the EU and Japan with which the US has reached trade agreements, the 15% tariff cap in the agreements will be adhered to [1] - Five major German economic research institutions predict that the German economy will only grow slightly by 0.2% in 2025. Due to structural weaknesses and the impact of US tariff hikes, its foreign trade growth momentum is gradually disappearing, and the growth prospects of the German economy will continue to deteriorate [1] - Goldman Sachs analysts said that the risk of the US economy re - accelerating is rising, which will have an important impact on the Fed's monetary policy path, especially under the background of the Fed selecting a new chairman [1] Market Trends - On Monday, the prices of the Container Shipping Index (European Line) futures fell collectively. The main contract EC2510 rose 3.11%, and the far - month contracts fell between 1 - 2%. The latest SCFIS European Line settlement freight rate index is 1254.92, down 134.43 points from last week, a 10.7% decline. Spot indicators continue to decline, and the futures price lacks support [1] - Maersk's spot cabin quotes for the European Line in mid - October stopped falling and rebounded significantly, followed by a small rebound in MSC's quotes in the next two weeks, leading to an increase in the futures price valuation. Geopolitical conflicts support the futures price, but before the National Day holiday, liner companies lowered freight rates to increase cargo collection, and the supply - demand pattern remains unchanged, with significant freight rate pressure [1] - Eurozone economic data has fluctuated recently. The September manufacturing PMI was slightly worse than last month, but the service PMI exceeded expectations. The ECB stated that it will slow down the pace of interest rate cuts [1] Key Data to Watch - China's official manufacturing PMI for September, UK's Q2 GDP annual rate final value, France's September CPI monthly rate preliminary value, Germany's September seasonally adjusted unemployment rate, Germany's September CPI monthly rate preliminary value, US July S&P/CS20 - city unadjusted house price index annual rate, and US September Chicago PMI on September 30th [1]

Group 1: Report Information - Report Date: September 29, 2025 [2] - Report Type: MEG Daily Report [1] - Research Team: Energy and Chemical Research Team [4] Group 2: Market Review and Operational Suggestions - Futures Market: EG2601 closed at 4,213 yuan/ton, down 36 yuan; EG2605 closed at 4,276 yuan/ton, down 33 yuan. The trading volume of the main contract was 105,146 lots, and the open interest was 326,040 lots [7] - Market Outlook: The current supply - demand structure of ethylene glycol is slightly weak, but due to factors such as intensified geopolitical conflicts, prices may fluctuate widely in the short term [7] Group 3: Industry News - Crude Oil Market: European and American crude oil futures stabilized after hitting a seven - week high. WTI November 2025 futures settled at $64.98 per barrel, down $0.01 (0.02%); Brent November 2025 futures settled at $69.42 per barrel, up $0.11 (0.16%) [8] - Ethylene Glycol Market: In Zhangjiagang, the negotiation price for ethylene glycol before October 17 and in late October was 4,281 - 4,283 yuan/ton, with a basis premium of 68 - 70 yuan/ton over EG2601 [8] - Industry Operation: The operations of PX, PTA, ethylene glycol, and polyester were stable [8] Group 4: Data Overview - Graphs: Include graphs of MEG futures prices, spot - futures price differences, international crude oil futures prices, raw material price indices, PTA - MEG price differences, MEG prices, MEG downstream product prices, and MEG downstream product inventories [10][15][16][18] - Data Source: Wind, Research and Development Department of CCB Futures [7][8][11]

Report Scope and Title - The report is a weekly LPG report titled "Geopolitical Conflicts Heat Up Again, Cost drives LPG Higher", dated September 28, 2025 [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report Report Core Viewpoints - Geopolitical tensions have flared up again, and in the short term, cost will drive LPG to strengthen to a certain extent [6] - OPEC+ is further increasing crude oil production. Although geopolitical disturbances between the US and Venezuela, the US and Iran, and the US and Russia may offset the increase to some extent, it does not change the fact that LPG supply remains abundant [6] - On the demand side, the peak season for the blending market is coming to an end, and it will be difficult to maintain high operating rates, so chemical demand may weaken [6] - PDH profits have significantly recovered, and subsequent operating rates may be supported [6] - Overall, LPG supply is very abundant. CP prices may be affected by peak - season stockpiling and strengthen periodically in the short term, but will follow oil prices in the long term. With high supply and the expectation that demand is unlikely to strengthen beyond expectations, the upside for LPG is limited, and a bearish view is maintained in the long term [6] Summary by Related Catalogs PART 01: LPG Market Review - Propane CP expected average price is $544/ton, down $4/ton from the previous period, a 0.73% month - on - month decrease; butane CP expected average price is $524/ton, down $4/ton from the previous period, a 0.76% month - on - month decrease [5] - Propane CFR South China average price is $587/ton, down $7/ton from the previous period, a 1.18% month - on - month decrease; butane CFR South China average price is $567/ton, down $7/ton from the previous period, a 1.22% month - on - month decrease [5] - Domestic LPG supply has increased slightly. This period's LPG commercial volume is 539,200 tons, an increase of 700 tons from the previous period, a 0.13% increase [5] - Domestic LPG market demand is expected to increase. With the National Day holiday approaching, downstream still has restocking needs before the holiday, and the holiday will boost combustion consumption. In the chemical field, there are plans to start up plants for olefin and alkane deep - processing, including one alkylation unit and three PDH units, and the demand for ether - after C4 and propane is expected to increase [5] PART 02: LPG Fundamentals LPG Supply - Domestic - Data on the operating rates of major refineries' atmospheric and vacuum distillation units, Shandong local refineries' atmospheric and vacuum distillation units, comprehensive refining profits of major refineries, and LPG commercial volume in China from 2021 - 2025 are presented [11][12] LPG Supply - Import - Data on LPG arrivals in China, import trade margins in the South China region, total monthly LPG imports in China, and LPG imports from different countries from 2021 - 2025 are presented [14][15][16] LPG Inventory - Data on LPG port inventory, refinery capacity utilization ratio, port capacity utilization ratio, factory - level inventory, and sales - to - production ratios in different regions in China from 2021 - 2025 are presented [22][23][25] LPG Downstream Industry - Data on PDH unit operating rates, PDH production margins, MTBE isomerization etherification production margins, MTBE export factory capacity utilization rates, alkylation oil capacity utilization rates, and alkylation oil production margins in China from 2021 - 2025 are presented [27][29][31] PART 03: LPG - Related Price Data Import Cost: CP Forward and Current - Month Prices - Data on propane and butane CP contract prices, CP crude oil price trends, and propane spot prices in South China from 2021 - 2025 are presented [35][36] Spot: Domestic Refinery Civil Gas Prices and Import Premiums - Data on the ex - factory prices of civil LPG at Guangzhou Petrochemical, Jinan Refinery, and Shanghai Gaoqiao from 2021 - 2025 are presented [38][39][40] PART 04: LPG Other Data - Data on LPG main contract basis, the price difference between the first - and second - month contracts, and registered warehouse receipts at major delivery warehouses from 2021 - 2025 are presented [43][45] Key Strategy Recommendation - Futures strategy: Try shorting at high prices [7]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoints of the Report - Crude oil strengthened significantly this week. The EIA inventory showed a large drawdown during the week, indicating the end of the peak season. Meanwhile, geopolitical conflicts flared up again, causing the market to worry about crude oil supply to some extent. The logic of peak - season demand for crude oil is approaching its end, and geopolitical conflicts are unlikely to have a significant impact. The market is expected to shift back to trading based on weak fundamentals. On the supply side, 1.66 million barrels per day of production is planned to resume, and the OPEC+ meeting in early October may continue to increase production. The magnitude of the increase requires close attention. On the demand side, the economic data released by the US is mediocre, which may suppress demand, and inventories may enter a continuous accumulation phase. Overall, the contradiction of oversupply in the crude oil market may become more prominent, and oil prices are more likely to fall than rise [26] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 01 Core Indicators and Views This Week's Key Event Review - **Fundamentals**: The API crude oil inventory in the US for the week ending September 19 decreased by 3.821 million barrels, compared with a decrease of 3.42 million barrels in the previous week. As of September 22, the total refined oil inventory at the Fujairah Port in the UAE increased by 1.833 million barrels to 14.922 million barrels. The EIA report showed that for the week ending September 19, US crude oil exports decreased by 793,000 barrels per day to 4.484 million barrels per day; domestic crude oil production increased by 19,000 barrels to 13.501 million barrels per day; commercial crude oil inventories excluding strategic reserves decreased by 607,000 barrels to 415 million barrels, a decrease of 0.15%. The average four - week supply of US crude oil products was 20.466 million barrels per day, a 0.94% increase compared to the same period last year. The US strategic petroleum reserve (SPR) inventory increased by 230,000 barrels to 406 million barrels, an increase of 0.06%. The US commercial crude oil imports excluding strategic reserves were 6.495 million barrels per day, an increase of 803,000 barrels per day compared to the previous week. A refinery of Rosneft in Russia suspended its oil processing operations after a drone attack on September 20. Iraq reached an agreement to export oil from the Kurdish oil fields through the Iraq - Turkey pipeline. The total number of US oil rigs for the week ending September 26 was 424, compared with 418 in the previous week. The Iraqi oil ministry officials stated that the resumption of the Iraq - Turkey oil pipeline will increase the crude oil export volume to nearly 3.6 million barrels per day in the coming days, and Iraq's production and export levels will remain within the OPEC - set quota of 4.2 million barrels per day [10][11][14] - **Macroeconomics**: The OECD expects the global economic growth rate to be 3.2% in 2025 (previously forecasted as 2.9%) and 2.9% in 2026 (unchanged from the previous forecast). It also expects the US economic growth rate to slow down to 1.8% in 2025 (previously forecasted as 1.6%) and be 1.5% in 2026 (unchanged from the previous forecast). The one - year loan prime rate in China as of September 22 was 3%, in line with expectations and the previous value. The preliminary value of the US S&P Global Manufacturing PMI in September was 52, in line with expectations but down from 53 in the previous month; the preliminary value of the US S&P Global Services PMI in September was 53.9, slightly lower than the expected 54 and down from 54.5 in the previous month. The number of initial jobless claims in the US for the week ending September 20 was 218,000, lower than the expected 235,000. The monthly rate of durable goods orders in the US in August was 2.9%, far exceeding the expected - 0.5%. The final annualized quarterly rate of real GDP in the US in the second quarter was 3.8%, higher than the expected 3.3%. The final annualized quarterly rate of the core PCE price index in the US in the second quarter was 2.6%, slightly higher than the expected 2.5%, and the final quarterly rate of real personal consumption expenditure in the second quarter was 2.5%, higher than the expected 1.7% [16] - **Geopolitical Conflicts**: Trump stated at the United Nations General Assembly on September 23 that if Russia is unwilling to reach an agreement, the US is ready to impose tariffs. He also called on Europe to stop all energy purchases from Russia and urged the United Nations to take anti - Russian oil measures with the US. On September 24, Trump said that with the support of the EU, Ukraine is capable of fighting and regaining its entire territory. On September 23, Polish Prime Minister Tusk announced that the border crossing with Belarus would be reopened at 0:00 on the 25th. On September 25, the North American Aerospace Defense Command (NORAD) stated that US fighter jets urgently took off to identify and intercept four Russian military aircraft flying near Alaska [18][22] - **Institutional Forecasts**: The EIA short - term energy outlook report expects the WTI crude oil price to be $64.16 per barrel in 2025 (previously expected to be $63.58) and $47.77 per barrel in 2026 (unchanged from the previous forecast). It expects the Brent crude oil price to be $67.80 per barrel in 2025 (previously expected to be $67.22) and $51.43 per barrel in 2026 (unchanged from the previous forecast) [23] Next Week's Core Indicator Calendar - Key indicators to be released next week include China's official manufacturing PMI for September on September 30, the number of US JOLTs job openings in August and the US Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index for September on September 3, the EIA crude oil inventory for the week ending September 26 on October 1, the number of initial jobless claims in the US for the week ending September 27 on October 2, the seasonally adjusted non - farm payrolls in the US for September on October 3, and the total number of US oil rigs for the week ending October 3 on October 4 [24] 02 Price Basic Data Crude Oil Basic Price - The prices of Brent, WTI, SC main contract, and Middle East main contract on September 26, 2025, were $69.22, $65.72, 491.3 yuan, and $70.62 respectively. The weekly changes were $2.54, $3.32, 4.3 yuan, and $1.66 respectively, with weekly change rates of 4%, 5%, 1%, and 2% respectively. The monthly changes were $2.52, $2.47, - 4.8 yuan, and $1.37 respectively, with monthly change rates of 4%, 4%, - 1%, and 2% respectively. The annual changes were - $1.87, - $1.95, - 31.9 yuan, and - $1.32 respectively, with annual change rates of - 3%, - 3%, - 6%, and - 2% respectively [33] Crude Oil Forward Price - The report provides the forward curves of Brent, WTI, and SC crude oil from September 22 to September 26, 2025 [54] Crude Oil Monthly Spread - The report presents the daily data of Brent, WTI, and SC crude oil monthly spreads, including the spreads between the first - month contract and the second - month contract, the first - month contract and the third - month contract, and the first - month contract and the sixth - month contract [56] Crude Oil Disk Spread - The report shows the daily data of the spreads between Brent and WTI, Brent and Oman, and the quality spread EFS (Brent - Dubai) [64][67] Main Oil Grade Premiums and Discounts - The report provides the monthly data of premiums and discounts for various oil grades, including Iran's OSP to Asia for light and heavy crude oil, Saudi Arabia's OSP to Asia for ultra - light, extra - light, light, medium, and heavy crude oil, Iraq's OSP to Asia for Basra medium and heavy crude oil, and Kuwait's FOB premiums to Asia [70][72][78] US Dollar Index - The report shows the relationship between the US dollar index and the WTI crude oil price [86] 03 World Crude Oil Supply and Demand World Crude Oil Supply and Demand Forecast - **OPEC Supply - Demand Balance**: The OPEC supply - demand balance table shows the world's crude oil supply and demand situation from 2022 to 2026. The world's total demand is expected to increase from 99.87 million barrels per day in 2022 to 107.1 million barrels per day in 2026, with an average annual increase of about 1.5 million barrels per day. The world's total supply is expected to increase from 100.3 million barrels per day in 2022 to 107.67 million barrels per day in 2026. The supply - demand gap is expected to change from a surplus of 0.43 million barrels per day in 2022 to a slight shortage in some quarters in the future [97][99][100] - **EIA Supply - Demand Forecast**: The EIA's world supply - demand balance table shows that the world's total production is expected to increase from 102.6 million barrels per day in the first quarter of 2024 to 106.99 million barrels per day in the fourth quarter of 2026. The world's total consumption is expected to increase from 101.79 million barrels per day in the first quarter of 2024 to 105.66 million barrels per day in the fourth quarter of 2026. The net extraction of global crude oil and other oil product inventories is expected to show a downward trend overall [107][109] OPEC Major Country Production - The OPEC+ quota table shows the production quotas of major OPEC countries from January to October 2025. The total quota of OPEC+ is expected to increase from 30.423 million barrels per day in January to 33.017 million barrels per day in October, with a total increase of 2.594 million barrels per day [94] Crude Oil Supply and Demand Forecast - The report provides the supply and demand forecasts of OPEC and EIA, including the production and consumption of different regions and countries, as well as the changes in inventories [97][107] Refinery Maintenance Capacity - Not provided in the document Refining Profit - Not provided in the document Crude Oil Inventory - The OPEC report shows the changes in OECD commercial inventories, strategic reserve inventories, and total inventories from 2022 to 2026. The EIA report shows the net extraction of crude oil and other oil product inventories in the world, the US, and other OECD countries from the first quarter of 2024 to the fourth quarter of 2026, as well as the ending commercial inventories of crude oil and other oil products in OECD countries [100][109]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The freight rates are still suppressed by fundamentals in the short term. With demand not significantly improving, over - capacity remains a huge pressure on the supply side, limiting the recovery space of shipping prosperity. - Whether the price increase announced by leading shipping companies in December can be implemented depends on the cargo volume in the fourth quarter. Although the economic data of the eurozone has improved, the overall situation is not optimistic. - The uncertainty of tariffs is too high. Although it has improved in the short term, the market is generally in a wait - and - see mode before the holiday. Overall, freight and industry profitability are expected to be under pressure, and the traditional peak season this year may show the characteristic of "not a real peak season", with freight rates expected to fluctuate weakly. [7][38] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Market Review - This week, the futures prices of the container shipping index (European line) rose collectively. The main contract EC2510 closed up 6.22%, and the far - month contracts rose between 1 - 9%. The latest SCFIS European line settlement freight rate index was 1254.92, down 185.32 points from last week, a 12.9% month - on - month decline. - The trading volume and open interest of the EC2510 contract were generally weak this week, and the market was mainly in a wait - and - see mode. [6][10][15] 3.2. News Review and Analysis | News | Impact | | --- | --- | | The US issued a document officially finalizing a tariff agreement with the EU, confirming a 15% tariff on EU cars and auto parts since August 1st. Since September 1st, EU pharmaceuticals, aircraft and their parts, generic drugs and their raw materials, as well as some metals and ores have been included in the tariff exemption list. | Bullish | | Premier Li Qiang met with European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen in New York, emphasizing the importance of trade and investment market openness and avoiding politicizing and securitizing economic and trade issues. | Neutral | | The Ministry of Commerce responded to China - US soy trade and Boeing aircraft purchase negotiations, stating that the US should cancel unreasonable tariffs and that the biggest obstacle to normal China - US economic and trade cooperation is US unilateral restrictions. | Neutral | | The OECD released a mid - term outlook report, raising the forecast of global economic growth in 2025 to 3.2% (up 0.3 percentage points from the June forecast) and keeping the 2026 forecast at 2.9%. The economic growth forecasts of the US, eurozone, Japan, and the UK for this year were slightly raised. | Slightly Bullish | [18] 3.3. Weekly Market Data - This week, the basis and spread of the container shipping index (European line) futures contracts converged. - The export container freight rate index declined this week. - Container ship capacity continued to grow. The BDI and BPI rebounded this week due to geopolitical factors. - The charter price of Panamax ships fluctuated this week, and the spread between the offshore and on - shore RMB against the US dollar mainly oscillated. [25][27][30][32] 3.4. Market Outlook and Strategy - The same as the core view, the freight rates are expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term. Attention should be paid to factors such as the actual follow - up increase of shipping companies' opening prices in December, the frequency of Houthi attacks, and trade war - related information. [7][38]

Core Insights - The market is currently focused on the Federal Reserve's interest rate path, with gold at a critical juncture influenced by strong economic data and a rising dollar, alongside geopolitical conflicts and buying support [1] Economic Data Impact - The U.S. Q2 GDP was revised up to 3.8% from a previous 3.3%, and initial jobless claims fell to 218,000, exceeding expectations, which led to the dollar index reaching a three-week high [3] - A strong dollar puts direct pressure on gold, causing prices to briefly dip to $3722 per ounce before rebounding to close at $3749.18 per ounce, a 0.38% increase [3] - Market expectations for a rate cut in October have slightly decreased from 90% to 85%, indicating a marginal impact of economic resilience on easing expectations [3] Geopolitical Risks and Safe-Haven Demand - Despite hawkish economic signals, ongoing global geopolitical risks, including conflicts in the Middle East and Ukraine, are elevating market risk aversion [4] - Domestic risks such as potential government shutdowns and new tariffs on heavy truck imports are also contributing to heightened market anxiety [4] - The combination of buying support during price dips and safe-haven demand is creating a strong floor for gold prices, making significant declines unlikely [4] PCE Inflation Data Significance - The market is awaiting the August core PCE price index, which is the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation measure, with expectations of a 0.3% month-over-month increase and a 2.7% year-over-year rise [5] - Higher-than-expected inflation data could reinforce the notion of prolonged high interest rates, exerting significant pressure on gold prices, while softer data could bolster rate cut beliefs and push gold prices higher [5] Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - Gold is currently in a "seesaw" position, balancing between the pressures of a strong dollar and economic data against the support from geopolitical risks and rate cut expectations [7] - Market sentiment is cautious ahead of the PCE data release, with investors advised to closely monitor data performance, Federal Reserve officials' comments, and geopolitical developments, as these factors will shape the future trajectory of gold prices [7]