Summary of Conference Call on Long-term Bonds Industry Overview - The conference call focuses on the long-term bond market, particularly the super long bonds, which are currently experiencing volatility due to supply expectations and weak demand [1][2]. Key Points and Arguments 1. **Market Sentiment and Interest Rates** - The sentiment in the super long bond market is negatively impacted by supply expectations and weak demand, leading to rising interest rates, especially for super long bonds [1][2]. - A short-term rebound opportunity exists, but long-term factors such as allocation strength and interest rate cut expectations limit this rebound potential [1][3]. 2. **Future Monetary Policy Expectations** - It is anticipated that monetary policy may become more accommodative in 2026, with clearer easing expectations emerging around March-April, while January-February may show less clarity [1][4]. 3. **Current Bond Recommendations** - Liquid super long bonds currently include T6, T2, and 25 ordinary government bonds [1][5]. - The 30-year old bonds, such as 25 special 5 and 25 special 6, show a yield spread of over 10 basis points, indicating holding value, but the compression speed of this spread may be slow [1][5]. 4. **Investment Strategies** - Suggested strategies include a low-duration defensive approach combined with a coupon strategy, focusing on two-year credit bonds and the potential rebound of 30-year government bonds [3][10]. - For short-term high-frequency trading, the most liquid bond is 25 special 6, while 2,502 bonds are recommended for slightly longer-term holds [8][9]. 5. **Liquidity and Future Issuance of Bonds** - The future liquidity of 2,502 bonds is uncertain, with potential issuance in 2026 estimated to reach between 250 billion to 300 billion, which could enhance its status as an active bond [6][7]. 6. **Short-term Investment Strategies** - Current market conditions favor short-term investments in three-month certificates of deposit due to favorable coupon rates [9]. - A combination of three-month and one-year certificates is recommended for better value [9]. 7. **Credit and Local Government Bonds** - For local government bonds, focus on new bonds with an implied tax rate above 4%, and for credit bonds, consider three-year secondary capital bonds and the spread with three-year national development bonds [12]. 8. **Floating Rate Bonds and Hedging Strategies** - Floating rate bonds are currently overpriced, but specific types like 25 Longfa XFL09 still hold value [13]. - A hedging strategy involving buying five-year national development bonds and shorting government bond futures could yield around 1.95% returns, providing a stable risk-return profile [13]. Additional Important Insights - The overall market environment presents unique opportunities across various bond types, including long-term government bonds and local government special bonds, which should be analyzed based on implied tax rates and regional economic conditions [15]. - The differentiation in performance among main bonds indicates a need for careful selection based on liquidity premiums and potential returns [11].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views of the Report - The macro - economic recovery momentum needs to be strengthened, and monetary policy is expected to remain loose. Treasury bond futures are under some pressure and should be treated with caution [6][7]. - The domestic economic situation is stable, but the recovery momentum is weak. The valuation of domestic assets is low, and the stock index is expected to gradually move up, and investors can choose the right time to go long [8]. - The global trade and financial environment is complex. Precious metals are expected to continue rising, and investors can wait and see for long - entry opportunities [10]. - The supply - demand pattern of steel products, iron ore, and coking coal and coke is weak, and investors can pay attention to short - selling and long - buying opportunities respectively [12][14][17]. - The overall surplus of ferroalloys has eased, and investors can consider long - entry opportunities at low levels after the spot losses expand [19][20]. - The crude oil price is supported, and the fuel oil price is also affected by positive factors. Both are currently on a wait - and - see basis [21][22][25]. - The demand for polyolefins has a certain improvement under the influence of policies and seasons, and it is on a wait - and - see basis [27]. - Synthetic rubber is expected to fluctuate, and natural rubber can be considered for long - entry opportunities [29][30][32]. - PVC should focus on supply - side changes, and urea's downward space is limited [33][34][36]. - PX may fluctuate and adjust in the short term, PTA is expected to fluctuate, ethylene glycol is under pressure, short - fiber may follow the cost to fluctuate, and bottle - chip is expected to follow the cost to fluctuate [37][38][39][41][42][43]. - For lithium carbonate, pay attention to the consumption sustainability and the resumption of production at the mine end [44][45]. - Copper, aluminum, and zinc are expected to be strong in the short term, lead is expected to fluctuate within a range, and tin is expected to fluctuate strongly [46][47][48][50][51][52][53][54][55]. - Nickel is expected to fluctuate, and soybean oil and soybean meal can pay attention to long - entry opportunities in the low - cost support range [56][59]. - Palm oil can consider long - entry on pullbacks, and rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil are on a wait - and - see basis [60][61][63]. - The upward space of cotton is limited, sugar is expected to fluctuate, apples are expected to be strong, and the short - term trend of live pigs should pay attention to the supply and consumption changes. Eggs are on a wait - and - see basis, and corn and corn starch can pay attention to the far - month out - of - the - money put options [64][65][67][68][70][72][76][80]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Treasury Bonds - On the previous trading day, most treasury bond futures closed down. The central bank carried out 122.3 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 14.7 billion yuan. Due to the low treasury bond yield, stable economic recovery, rising core inflation, and increased market risk appetite, treasury bond futures are under pressure [5][7]. Stock Index - On the previous trading day, stock index futures showed mixed trends. The domestic economic recovery momentum is weak, but the asset valuation is low, and the market sentiment has increased recently. The stock index is expected to gradually move up, and investors can go long [8]. Precious Metals - On the previous trading day, the gold main contract fell, and the silver main contract rose. The complex global environment, central bank gold - buying behavior, and the possible continuous interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve are beneficial to precious metals, which are expected to continue rising, and investors can wait for long - entry opportunities [10]. Steel Products (Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil) - On the previous trading day, rebar and hot - rolled coil futures slightly pulled back. In the medium term, the demand for rebar is declining, the market will enter the off - season, the supply capacity is surplus, the inventory is high, and the price is expected to be weak. Hot - rolled coil may have a similar trend, and investors can short on rebounds [12]. Iron Ore - On the previous trading day, iron ore futures slightly fell. The national hot - metal daily output has declined, the import volume has increased, the port inventory has risen, and the market supply - demand pattern is weak. The futures may continue to pull back, and investors can short at high levels [14]. Coking Coal and Coke - On the previous trading day, coking coal and coke futures fell sharply. The supply of coking coal is increasing, and the demand is weakening. The first - round price reduction of coke has been implemented, and the demand may weaken. The futures are still in a weak state, and investors can buy at low levels [16][17]. Ferroalloys - On the previous trading day, manganese - silicon and silicon - iron main contracts fell. The manganese ore supply has changed, the cost is rising, the output is falling, the demand is weak, and the overall surplus is easing. After the price pull - back, investors can consider long - entry opportunities when the spot losses expand [19][20]. Crude Oil - On the previous trading day, INE crude oil fluctuated upward due to the tense relationship between the US and Venezuela. The reduction of net short positions by US funds and geopolitical factors support the oil price, and the main contract is on a wait - and - see basis [21][22][23]. Fuel Oil - On the previous trading day, fuel oil rose sharply. The short - term supply is sufficient, and the market is under pressure. However, the deepening of the Asian fuel oil spot discount and the strengthening of the cost - end crude oil are beneficial to the price, and the main contract is on a wait - and - see basis [24][25][26]. Polyolefins - On the previous trading day, the PP market in Hangzhou declined in some parts, and the LLDPE price in Yuyao fell. The demand for polypropylene products has a certain improvement under the influence of policies and seasons, and it is on a wait - and - see basis [27][28]. Synthetic Rubber - On the previous trading day, the synthetic rubber main contract rose. The supply - demand is in a weak balance, and it is expected to fluctuate. Pay attention to the supply - side device changes and the demand - side recovery [29][30]. Natural Rubber - On the previous trading day, the natural rubber main contract showed mixed trends. The supply and demand have changed, and it is expected to fluctuate within a range. Investors can pay attention to long - entry opportunities [31][32]. PVC - On the previous trading day, the PVC main contract fell. The supply exceeds demand, and the downward space is limited. Pay attention to the supply - side changes after the festival [33][34]. Urea - On the previous trading day, the urea main contract fell. The supply is expected to decline slightly, the demand of downstream products has changed, the profit has improved, and the downward space is limited [35][36]. PX - On the previous trading day, the PX main contract rose. The PX load has slightly decreased, the import has decreased, and the short - term price may fluctuate and adjust. Pay attention to the crude oil changes and macro - policies [37][38]. PTA - On the previous trading day, the PTA main contract fell. The supply and demand have changed little, the processing fee is low, and the inventory is low. It is expected to fluctuate, and pay attention to the oil price [39]. Ethylene Glycol - On the previous trading day, the ethylene glycol main contract fell. The supply is increasing, the inventory is accumulating, the demand support is limited, and it is under short - term pressure. Pay attention to the port inventory and supply changes [40][41]. Short - Fiber - On the previous trading day, the short - fiber main contract fell. The supply is at a relatively high level, the demand changes little, and it may follow the cost to fluctuate. Pay attention to the cost and macro - policies [42]. Bottle - Chip - On the previous trading day, the bottle - chip main contract fell. The raw material price support is limited, the load is stable, the export growth has slowed down, and it is expected to follow the cost to fluctuate [43]. Lithium Carbonate - On the previous trading day, the lithium carbonate main contract rose. The supply is at a high level, the consumption is improving, and the inventory is decreasing. Pay attention to the consumption sustainability and the resumption of production at the mine end [44][45]. Copper - On the previous trading day, the Shanghai copper main contract fell slightly. The macro - economic data in the US is not as expected, increasing the possibility of interest rate cuts. The copper supply is expected to tighten, the consumption is weak, and the price is expected to be strong in the medium - to - long term, but beware of pull - backs [46][47]. Aluminum - On the previous trading day, the Shanghai aluminum and alumina main contracts fell slightly. The alumina supply is in surplus, the electrolytic aluminum supply increment is limited, the consumption enters the off - season, and the price is expected to be strong before the situation changes [48][49][50]. Zinc - On the previous trading day, the Shanghai zinc main contract rose. The zinc concentrate processing fee has fallen, the supply is decreasing, the inventory is decreasing, and the price is expected to be strong in the short term [51][52]. Lead - On the previous trading day, the Shanghai lead main contract fell slightly. The lead concentrate processing fee has fallen, the production enthusiasm of smelters may be affected, and the price is expected to fluctuate within a range [53][54]. Tin - On the previous trading day, the tin main contract fell. The supply of tin ore is tight, the demand has certain resilience, the inventory is decreasing, and the price is expected to fluctuate strongly [55]. Nickel - On the previous trading day, the nickel main contract fell. The nickel ore price is stable, the downstream demand is weak, the inventory is relatively high, and the price is expected to fluctuate [56]. Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal - On the previous trading day, soybean oil and soybean meal main contracts fell. The Brazilian soybean planting progress is slightly slower, the US soybean harvest is basically completed, the supply pressure exists, the inventory is high, the demand has a certain improvement, and investors can pay attention to long - entry opportunities in the low - cost support range [57][58][59]. Palm Oil - The Malaysian palm oil price fell. The Chinese import of US soybeans is uncertain, the Indonesian policy may change, the Malaysian palm oil inventory may rise, and the domestic palm oil inventory is at a medium level. It can be considered to go long on pullbacks [60][61]. Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil - The Canadian rapeseed price fell. The Canadian rapeseed production has increased, the domestic import of rapeseed - related products has changed, the inventory of rapeseed meal has increased slightly, and the inventory of rapeseed oil has decreased. It is on a wait - and - see basis [62][63]. Cotton - The domestic and foreign cotton prices showed different trends. The US cotton production and inventory have increased, and the domestic cotton is in a bumper harvest, with weak demand and limited upward space [64][65][66]. Sugar - The domestic and foreign sugar prices rebounded slightly. The Brazilian sugar production is in the off - season, the Indian sugar production is expected to increase, the domestic sugar production is increasing, and the import is expected to be high. The price is expected to fluctuate [67][68][69]. Apples - The domestic apple futures fell. The apple inventory is at a low level in recent years, the production has decreased, and the price is expected to be strong [70][71]. Live Pigs - The live pig price has changed regionally. The supply and demand situation has changed, and investors should pay attention to the supply of farms and the consumption changes after the temperature drop. Consider closing the remaining short positions [72][73]. Eggs - The egg price has changed slightly. The egg supply is at a high level, but the supply - side improvement is offset by weak demand. It is on a wait - and - see basis [74][75][76]. Corn and Corn Starch - The corn and corn starch main contracts fell. The transportation of corn in the Northeast is difficult, the supply pressure exists, the import may increase in the future, the demand has a slight increase, and investors can pay attention to the far - month out - of - the - money put options. Corn starch may follow the corn trend [77][78][80].

Core Viewpoint - The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has ended a shortened rate-cutting cycle and is now assessing whether to extend the pause on interest rates or shift towards tightening, as inflation risks have shifted to the upside [1][3]. Group 1: Interest Rate Decisions - RBA Governor Michele Bullock announced the decision to maintain the cash rate at 3.6%, indicating that the risk of rising prices has led to a surge in bond yields to a 13-month high [1]. - The RBA is closely monitoring whether to extend the pause on interest rates or consider a potential rate hike, with no immediate plans for rate cuts in the foreseeable future [1][5]. - The RBA's decision to keep rates unchanged follows three rate cuts earlier in the year, making it one of the shortest easing cycles among developed countries [3]. Group 2: Economic Indicators - Australia's economy is nearing full capacity, with unemployment at historical lows and inflation exceeding the target range of 2-3%, prompting the RBA's cautious stance [3]. - Recent data has shown unexpected upward trends, putting pressure on the RBA to consider rate hikes if inflation continues to rise [3]. - The latest consumer price index (CPI) stands at 3.8%, with forecasts suggesting inflation may not return to target levels until mid-2027 [4]. Group 3: Market Reactions - Following the RBA's hawkish guidance, the Australian dollar rose by 0.3%, and government bond yields increased by up to 12 basis points, reaching their highest levels since November 2024 [1]. - The divergence in monetary policy between Australia and the U.S. has led to significant selling of Australian bonds, with the yield premium over U.S. Treasuries widening at the fastest pace since early 2020 [3].

这些分析师称，即将到来的美联储主席换届也构成一个风险，因为市场将对任何新的领导层进行评估。 美国联邦公开市场委员会也将发布季度《经济预测摘要》，其中将包含对2026年及以后利率的看法，这 可能会证实该委员会内部近期的意见分歧。 新浪合作大平台期货开户 安全快捷有保障 责任编辑：刘明亮 BNY的分析师在一份报告中称，市场已充分反映美联储本月降息的预期，与此同时，认为此次降息将 被定性为偏紧缩的共识正日益增强。 这些分析师称，这意味着进一步的货币政策宽松将取决于2026年3月和6月出现更疲软的数据或更低的通 胀。 BNY的分析师在一份报告中称，市场已充分反映美联储本月降息的预期，与此同时，认为此次降息将 被定性为偏紧缩的共识正日益增强。 这些分析师称，这意味着进一步的货币政策宽松将取决于2026年3月和6月出现更疲软的数据或更低的通 胀。 这些分析师称，即将到来的美联储主席换届也构成一个风险，因为市场将对任何新的领导层进行评估。 美国联邦公开市场委员会也将发布季度《经济预测摘要》，其中将包含对2026年及以后利率的看法，这 可能会证实该委员会内部近期的意见分歧。 BNY的分析师称："我们预计，对于2026年的政策 ...

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) announced a 900 billion yuan MLF operation, exceeding the monthly maturity amount by 200 billion yuan, which is seen as a targeted liquidity injection to address funding gaps during the October tax peak and special bond issuance [1][3]. Group 1: PBOC Actions - The MLF operation has a longer maturity of 3 months, compared to the usual 1 month, indicating a shift in strategy [3]. - The interest rate remains unchanged at 2.5%, breaking the expectation of a rate cut [3]. - The use of multiple price-level bidding suggests strong demand for medium to long-term funds from commercial banks [3]. Group 2: Economic Context - The CPI rose only 0.8% year-on-year in September, while the PPI has been in negative growth for 12 consecutive months, indicating visible deflationary pressures [3]. - The actual financing cost for enterprises is at 5.2%, highlighting the economic challenges [3]. - The RMB exchange rate has fallen below 7.3, with a 160 basis point inversion in the 10-year US-China treasury yield spread, limiting traditional rate cut options [3]. Group 3: Market Implications - The 200 billion yuan net injection is not a broad-based liquidity release but is aimed at stabilizing the stock market, supported by regulatory requirements for insurance funds to invest 30% of new premiums in the market [3]. - Historical precedents show that similar MLF injections in the past have led to subsequent rate cuts and a bullish market environment [4]. - The current liquidity measures are expected to benefit specific sectors, including the CSI 300 constituents, hard technology in the STAR Market, and high-dividend stocks [4]. Group 4: Global Monetary Policy Landscape - Global central banks are adjusting their monetary policies, with the Federal Reserve showing an 87% probability of a rate cut in December, while the European Central Bank is likely to pause rate hikes [4]. - The PBOC's liquidity measures are seen as a counter to external economic pressures and a preparation for upcoming special bond issuances [4]. Group 5: Future Outlook - The market should focus on the upcoming Politburo meeting on October 31 and the LPR quote in November for further indications of monetary policy direction [5]. - Historical trends suggest that a shift in monetary policy requires three consecutive similar actions to confirm a trend, making it premature to declare a new easing cycle [5]. - The coordinated efforts of the financial committee, PBOC, and CSRC indicate a stabilizing policy environment for the A-share market [5].

Domestic Macro - Demand Side - Domestic consumption shows improvement with a year-on-year decline in passenger car retail sales narrowing to 1.2%[3] - The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) reached a new high for December 2023, increasing by 23.2%[3] - Movie box office revenue surged due to the release of a popular animated film, contributing to a 5.4% increase in overall entertainment spending[3] Domestic Macro - Supply Side - Seasonal production continues to decline, with a decrease of 2.92 percentage points in production intensity[3] - Real estate and infrastructure sectors remain weak, with production intensity at 32.55%[3] - The chemical industry shows varied performance, with PTA production at 73.81%[3] Price Performance - Consumer Price Index (CPI) shows a decline in pork prices while fruit and vegetable prices continue to rise, with CPI growth at 1.06%[3] - Producer Price Index (PPI) reflects rising prices in crude oil and non-ferrous metals, with WTI crude oil prices up by 2.61%[2] Monetary Policy Outlook - Expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in December are increasing, influenced by U.S. employment and inflation data[3] - Hassett is likely to succeed the current Fed chair, with a clear bias towards easing monetary policy[4]

Core Idea - Current market conditions suggest not to aggressively bottom-fish but to consider small positions for short-term gains, with a focus on 1-2 basis point fluctuations before retreating [3][32] - There is a probability of unexpected monetary easing in Q1 next year, and if there is large-scale central bank net buying of government bonds, significant trading opportunities may arise [3][32] Group 1: Current Market Conditions - The bond market currently lacks major institutional buyers, with funds showing diminished profit effects and banks potentially selling old bonds due to year-end pressures [4][7][9] - Fund products are under pressure, with a notable decline in the scale of long-term bond ETFs from approximately 55 billion to 48 billion since November [7][41] - Insurance companies are focusing on high-dividend stocks as substitutes for long-term bonds, with the dividend yield of the A-share dividend index at approximately 4.3%-4.4%, significantly higher than the 30-year government bond yield of 2.25% [16][48] Group 2: Future Opportunities - Patience is advised for positioning after the year-end, as new rounds of easing may emerge post-New Year, with expectations of increased central bank bond purchases [4][50] - The market anticipates a rebound in the bond market after year-end adjustments, with potential significant trading opportunities when the main contract price approaches 109 yuan [4][50][53] - The current lack of trend-following buying interest from major institutional investors suggests that the bond market's negative sentiment may not have fully dissipated [4][34] Group 3: Short-term and Mid-term Strategies - Short-term strategies should focus on risk control, while mid-term outlooks remain optimistic, anticipating a shift in investment strategies from capital gains to carry strategies [4][34] - The bond market is expected to experience a rebound as year-end adjustments conclude, with institutions likely to increase their allocations [4][53] - The central bank's bond buying signals are currently more significant than their actual impact, with expectations of increased buying in the near future [4][50]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term view of TL2603 is to oscillate, the medium - term view is to oscillate, and the intraday view is weak, with an overall view of oscillatory consolidation. The short - term probability of interest rate cuts is low, while the medium - and long - term easing expectations still exist [1]. - The intraday view of varieties TL, T, TF, TS is weak, the medium - term view is to oscillate, and the reference view is oscillatory consolidation. In the short term, the Treasury bond futures are mainly in oscillatory consolidation, with low short - term interest rate cut possibility, alleviated market uncertainty risks, insufficient upward momentum, concerns about long - term bond supply in Q1 next year, possible policy of using long - term bonds to replace short - term bonds, and institutional profit - taking needs near the year - end. However, the long - term monetary policy environment is loose, providing strong support for Treasury bond futures [5]. Group 3: Summary According to Related Catalogs Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For TL2603, short - term: oscillate; medium - term: oscillate; intraday: weak; view reference: oscillatory consolidation; core logic: low short - term interest rate cut probability, medium - and long - term easing expectations [1]. Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - Varieties: TL, T, TF, TS. Intraday view: weak; medium - term view: oscillate; reference view: oscillatory consolidation. Core logic: Treasury bond futures oscillated and pulled back yesterday, with a significant decline in 30 - year Treasury bond futures. Short - term weak performance is due to low short - term interest rate cut possibility, alleviated market uncertainty risks, insufficient upward momentum, concerns about long - term bond supply in Q1 next year, possible policy of using long - term bonds to replace short - term bonds, and institutional profit - taking needs near the year - end. Long - term support comes from the loose monetary policy environment [5].

Group 1 - The market is increasingly betting on a dovish policy shift and a rate cut in December, following unexpectedly weak ADP employment data [1] - The current Fed Chair Jerome Powell's term ends in May next year, and President Trump has hinted at Kevin Hassett as the next Fed Chair, with an official announcement expected early next year [3] - The demand for the short-term yield curve linked to the Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR) is rising, reflecting market expectations of accelerated monetary policy easing after Powell's term ends [3] Group 2 - Kevin Hassett, the current Director of the White House National Economic Council, has a close relationship with Trump and was a key architect of the 2017 tax cuts, raising concerns about the independence of the Fed if he becomes Chair [5] - The nomination of Hassett signals Trump's strongest public criticism of the current Fed's interest rate policy, potentially weakening the long-standing "firewall" between the White House and the Fed [7] - Hassett's inclination towards growth-focused easing policies may lead to quicker rate cuts, raising concerns about the Fed's independence and market predictability [7] Group 3 - The market has not fully priced in the implications of Hassett's potential appointment, but confirmation could lead to a comprehensive reassessment based on "political risk premium" and "easing expectations" [7] - A more dovish Fed could weaken the dollar's interest rate advantage and damage its status as a global reserve currency [7] - Gold prices may rise due to expectations of monetary easing, a weaker dollar, and increased demand for safe-haven assets amid geopolitical and financial uncertainties [7] Group 4 - The yield curve in the U.S. Treasury market is expected to steepen, with short-term rates declining faster due to rate cut expectations, while long-term bonds may face selling pressure due to inflation concerns [8] - The nomination of Hassett represents a significant test of the independence of the U.S. central bank and the stability of the modern monetary financial system [10]

Core Viewpoint - Traders are increasingly betting that the appointment of a new Federal Reserve chairman and delayed economic data will support President Donald Trump's calls for interest rate cuts [1] Group 1: Market Reactions - There is a growing demand for short-term interest rate curves linked to the Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR), reflecting market expectations regarding Federal Reserve rate decisions [1] - These bets indicate that the pace of monetary policy easing may accelerate after Chairman Jerome Powell's term ends in May next year [1] Group 2: Leadership Changes - The market began positioning itself after Kevin Hassett, the director of the White House National Economic Council, emerged as a leading candidate to succeed Powell [1] - President Trump stated during a cabinet meeting that the race for the Federal Reserve chairman has "narrowed down to one person," referring to Hassett as a "potential Federal Reserve chairman" [1] - Trump indicated that a final decision will be announced early next year [1]