新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-12-04 下游承压价格走弱，多晶硅基本面表现仍较弱 工业硅： 市场分析 2025-12-03，工业硅期货价格偏弱震荡运行，主力合约2601开于8955元/吨，最后收于8920元/吨，较前一日结算变 化（-145）元/吨，变化（-1.60）%。截止收盘，2601主力合约持仓193926手，2025-12-03仓单总数为6892手，较前 一日变化108手。 供应端：工业硅现货价格持稳。据SMM数据，昨日华东通氧553#硅在9400-9600（-50）元/吨；421#硅在9700-9900 （0）元/吨，新疆通氧553价格8800-9000（0）元/吨，99硅价格在8800-9000（0）元/吨。昆明、黄埔港、西北、天 津、新疆、四川、上海地区硅价持平，97硅价格持稳。 根据SMM调研，南北地区工业硅开工率分化，川滇硅企继续枯水期减产节奏开工率延续下行趋势。北方个别硅企 有增开或复产开工率上行。增减变化之下预计12月工业硅产量或基本持平于11月。 消费端：据SMM统计，有机硅DMC报价13200-13500（150）元/吨。SMM报道，在单体企业减排和持续挺价预期 背景下，刺激 ...

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Cautiously bullish. - Arbitrage: Inter - period positive spread [5] 2) Core View of the Report - Overseas spot premium remains high and difficult to decline, overseas inventory is at a low level, export profit increases, domestic spot premium shows a positive trend, domestic warehouse receipt inventory declines slightly, and the fundamentals are all favorable. The domestic social inventory continues to decline. In November, the smelting output decreased month - on - month and was significantly lower than expected. The continuous upward repair of spot premium reflects both consumption intensity and supply tightness. The TC at home and abroad continues to decline. High - altitude mines in China have entered the winter shutdown and maintenance period. The rapid decline of TC price and the decline of absolute price have caused the smelting comprehensive cost to face losses, and the supply - side pressure is expected to decline in the later stage. The fundamental data has turned from bearish to bullish, and the current zinc valuation is low. The expectation of interest rate cuts in the US in December increases, and the future consumption is optimistic [4] 3) Summary According to Related Catalogs Important Data - **Spot**: LME zinc spot premium is $250.98 per ton. SMM Shanghai zinc spot price is 22,790 yuan per ton, up 50 yuan from the previous trading day, with a spot premium of 55 yuan per ton; SMM Guangdong zinc spot price is 22,700 yuan per ton, up 20 yuan, with a spot premium of - 35 yuan per ton; Tianjin zinc spot price is 22,690 yuan per ton, up 20 yuan, with a spot premium of - 45 yuan per ton [1] - **Futures**: On December 3, 2025, the main SHFE zinc contract opened at 22,745 yuan per ton and closed at 22,755 yuan per ton, up 50 yuan from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 106,416 lots, and the open interest was 104,585 lots. The highest price was 22,800 yuan per ton, and the lowest was 22,695 yuan per ton [2] - **Inventory**: As of December 3, 2025, the total inventory of zinc ingots in seven regions monitored by SMM was 144,300 tons, a decrease of 3,800 tons from the previous period. As of the same date, LME zinc inventory was 52,450 tons, an increase of 75 tons from the previous trading day [3]

黑色建材日报 | 2025-12-04 基本面弱平衡，钢价区间震荡运行 钢材：基本面弱平衡，钢价区间震荡运行 市场分析 昨日螺纹钢期货主力合约收于3137元/吨，热卷主力合约收于3319元/吨。现货方面，全国建材成交89788吨。 供需与逻辑：供应端，数据显示成材产量库存下降，需求表现尚可。板材数据产量库存数据回升，需求端稍弱。 当前基本面矛盾不突出，换月完成，宏观预期上升市场交易地位，后续需重点关注宏观政策落地力度、天气变化 对施工的影响、终端需求释放节奏及冬储行情启动情况。 策略 单边：震荡 跨期：无 跨品种：无 期现：无 期权：无 风险 宏观政策、成材需求情况、钢材出口、钢厂利润、成本支撑等。 铁矿：市场观望为主，矿价持续震荡 市场分析 期现货方面：昨日，双焦期货市场呈现涨跌分化态势，焦煤主力合约价格回调，焦炭主力合约延续上涨行情。进 口蒙煤市场表现平淡，贸易商情绪谨慎，市场活跃度一般，交投氛围冷清。 期现货方面：昨日铁矿石期货价格震荡偏弱运行，最终铁矿石2601合约收盘799.5元/吨；现货方面，报价整体小幅 下跌、成交氛围略显平淡，供需呈现宽松态势，采购价格多随行就市。全国主港铁矿累计成交119.1 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 宝城期货豆类油脂早报（2025 年 12 月 4 日） 品种观点参考 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货农产品板块 品种：豆粕（M） 日内观点：震荡偏弱 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：震荡偏弱 专业研究·创造价值 1 / 3 请务必阅读文末免责条款 核心逻辑：近期豆类市场呈现近弱远强的分化走势，资金继续向远期 2605 合约移仓。美豆期价受中 国采购预期支撑高位运行，但巴西大豆创纪录的丰产预期及美豆较巴西大豆的升水限制了上行空间。 国内豆粕高库存与油厂高压榨量对价格形成压制，而下游生猪养殖存栏高位支撑饲料需求，使得市场 在"弱现实"与"强预期"间反复博弈。短期豆粕 2605 合约仍将维持区间内震荡偏弱运行，需关注 南美天气变化及中国采购美豆的实际进展。 时间周期说 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints - The report presents the latest price, production and sales, inventory and profit data of glass and soda ash, and shows the relevant historical data trends through charts, but does not clearly put forward the core viewpoints [1][2][3][4]. 3. Summary by Category Glass - **Price**: From November 26 to December 3, 2025, the price of 5mm glass in some regions changed slightly. For example, the price of 5mm large - plate glass of Shahe Safety increased from 1044.0 to 1061.0, while that of Shahe Great Wall decreased from 1044.0 to 1036.0. The FG05 contract price decreased from 1169.0 to 1125.0, and the FG01 contract price decreased from 1037.0 to 1020.0 [1]. - **Production and Sales**: On December 3, 2025, the production - sales ratio of glass in Shahe was 109, in Hubei was 99, in East China was 98, and in South China was 131 [2]. - **Profit**: The profit of North China's coal - fired glass increased from 105.7 to 113.3, while the profit of South China's natural gas glass remained at - 188.1. The profit of North China's natural gas glass increased from - 306.6 to - 304.5. The profit of 05FG and 01FG on the natural gas futures market decreased [1]. Soda Ash - **Price**: From November 26 to December 3, 2025, the price of heavy soda ash in some regions changed. For example, the price of Shahe heavy soda ash decreased from 1160.0 to 1130.0. The SA05 contract price decreased from 1244.0 to 1233.0, and the SA01 contract price decreased from 1183.0 to 1165.0 [1]. - **Industry Situation**: The inventory of the mid - upstream of the soda ash industry continued to decline, and the second - phase project of Yuanxing was put into production. The spot price of heavy soda ash in Hebei delivery warehouses was about 1120, and the price delivered to Shahe was about 1130 [1]. - **Profit**: The profit of North China's ammonia - soda process first increased and then decreased, while the profit of North China's combined - soda process increased [1].

中 信 期 货 国 际 化 研 究 | 中 信 期 货 研 究 所 International 2024-10-09 中信期货国际化研究 | CITIC Futures International Research 2025/12/04 China Futures Daily Note 中国期货每日简报 桂晨曦 Gui Chenxi 从业资格号 Qualification No：F3023159 投资咨询号 Consulting No.：Z0013632 CITIC Futures International Service Platform：https://internationalservice.citicsf.com 摘要 Abstract Macro News: China-Russia Strategic Security Consultation was held. Investment consulting business qualification：CSRC License [2012] No. 669 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669 号 Futures Prices: On ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|农业策略⽇报 2025-12-4 停产消息刺激纸浆上涨，但维持宽幅震 荡格局 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。中信期货不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内 容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。如本报告涉及行业分析或上市公司相关内容，旨在对期货市场及其相关性进行比较论证，列举解释期货品种 相关特性及潜在风险，不涉及对其行业或上市公司的相关推荐，不构成对任何主体进行或不进行某项行为的建议或意见，不得将本报告的任何内容据以作为中信 期货所作的承诺或声明。在任何情况下，任何主体依据本报告所进行的任何作为或不作为，中信期货不承担任何责任。 油脂：关注上方技术阻力有效性 蛋白粕：美豆震荡，豆菜粕价差如期扩大 玉米/淀粉：盘内冲高，玉米维持偏紧格局 生猪：供需宽松，猪价偏弱运行 天然橡胶：回归窄幅震荡走势 合成橡胶：消息面情绪提振幅度有限 棉花：近月合约下方支撑较强，上方空间受套保限制 白糖：糖价承压，小幅下跌 纸浆：停产消息刺激盘面继续上涨，但维持宽幅震荡格局 双胶纸：现货维稳，盘面跟随 ...

周三（12月3日）纽约尾盘，现货黄金大致持平，报4207.07美元/盎司，日内呈现出M形走势，交投于 4241.50-4194.65美元区间。 纽约证交所ARCA金矿开采商指数收跌0.47%，报2278.38点，美股开盘之前微幅上涨，随后快速走高至 2321.09点——短时呈现出M形走势。 现货白银大致持平，报58.4880美元/盎司，日内交投于58.9789-57.5578美元区间。 COMEX黄金期货涨0.44%，报4239.30美元/盎司，交投于4273.30-4225.10美元区间。 费城金银指数收跌0.35%，报318.01点。 COMEX白银期货涨0.49%，报58.990美元/盎司，日内交投于58.210-59.655美元区间。 COMEX铜期货涨2.87%，报5.3935美元/磅，全天处于上涨状态，北京时间00：00过后高位持稳。 现货铂金涨1.98%，现货钯金跌0.40%。 新浪合作大平台期货开户 安全快捷有保障 责任编辑：丁文武 周三（12月3日）纽约尾盘，现货黄金大致持平，报4207.07美元/盎司，日内呈现出M形走势，交投于 4241.50-4194.65美元区间。 COMEX黄金期货 ...

沪铜期货主力合约站上9万元/吨大关，现涨1.4%，创历史新高。 沪铜期货主力合约站上9万元/吨大关，现涨1.4%，创历史新高。 ...

多晶硅、碳酸锂、工业硅日报 （一）多晶硅 市场走势：今日多晶硅期货偏强运行，主力 2601 合约较上一交 易日收盘价下跌 1.98%，报 57430 元/吨。 核心逻辑：11 月底多晶硅仓单集中注销后，仓单量大幅减少。 当前主要交易逻辑集中在市场上符合要求的可交割资源偏紧，资金面 扰动较大。从过去交易所介入后对行情的影响来看，本次交易所限仓 提保对盘面的影响相对较小，今日延续偏强运行。若交割规则问题不 解决，叠加新仓单数量不多的格局延续，谨慎防范 2601 合约复刻 2512 合约 11 月底的走势。基本面来看，多晶硅现货价格持稳，延续累库 格局，全产业链需求整体疲弱，下游硅片及电池片价格均有一定程度 下调。 技术面分析：今日多晶硅期货整体持仓量小幅增加，仍是多头控 盘。日内 9：05 有"首 K 突破法"叠加成交量大放量的上行介入机会， 给到了 1：2 盈亏比。目前多晶硅主力 2601 合约 5 分钟级别周期为红 线红带红阶梯，隔夜 2 小时级别周期仍是红色阶梯线偏强，仍在震荡 区间上沿，关注是否能突破震荡区间，多空分水位 55235 元/吨。 策略建议：本次交易所限仓提保对多晶硅盘面影响较小，仍维持 偏强 ...