Market Performance - On July 28, the New York stock market opened higher but showed mixed results by the close, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq indices reaching new historical highs [1] - The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by 64.36 points, closing at 44,837.56 points, a decrease of 0.14% [1] - The S&P 500 index rose by 1.13 points, closing at 6,389.77 points, an increase of 0.02% [1] - The Nasdaq Composite index increased by 70.27 points, closing at 21,178.58 points, a rise of 0.33% [1] - Among the 11 sectors of the S&P 500, 8 sectors declined while 3 sectors gained, with the real estate and materials sectors leading the declines [1] Trade Agreements - A new trade agreement was announced between the U.S. and the EU, which includes a 15% tariff on EU goods entering the U.S. and a 50% tariff on EU-produced steel, aluminum, and copper [1][2] - The EU plans to invest an additional $600 billion in the U.S. during Trump's second term, building on over $100 billion in annual investments [2] Market Sentiment and Challenges - Market volatility has decreased to its lowest level since February, but investors face challenges such as complacency and the urgency to chase market gains [2] - Recent positive trade news has been largely ignored by investors, with potential market fluctuations expected from corporate earnings reports and U.S.-China trade negotiations [2] - Following recent gains and new highs, a market correction or consolidation may be necessary before further increases [2] Upcoming Economic Indicators - The Federal Reserve is set to announce its monetary policy decisions, and the U.S. will release July non-farm payroll data, along with earnings reports from major tech companies [3]

Group 1 - The article discusses the upcoming negotiations between the U.S. and China, with U.S. Treasury Secretary Mnuchin indicating that geopolitical issues, particularly regarding Iran and Russia, will be included in the discussions [3][5] - Mnuchin highlights that China is the largest buyer of oil from Iran and Russia, both of which are under U.S. sanctions, suggesting that this topic needs serious discussion between the two nations [3][5] - The article argues that China, as a sovereign nation, has the right to engage in oil trade with any country, and the U.S. should not interfere in these decisions [5][11] Group 2 - The U.S. aims to use the oil trade between China and Iran/Russia as leverage in the upcoming negotiations, attempting to create topics for bargaining [5][7] - The article notes that the U.S. has a history of trying to sow discord among China, Russia, and Iran, but increased pressure from the U.S. has led to closer ties among these nations [7][9] - The U.S. is also interested in encouraging China to increase its imports of American oil, especially since China has not purchased U.S. crude oil for three consecutive months, which is detrimental to U.S. shale oil producers [9][11]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry - wide investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Bean Meal**: It is expected to be in a large - range oscillation. The domestic soybean and bean meal are in the inventory - accumulation stage until the end of September, with the inventory - accumulation speed in August expected to slow down compared to July. Sino - US trade tariffs are the key cost support for bean meal. In the face of weak fundamentals and cost support, it should be treated as a large - range market. Attention should be paid to the results of this week's Sino - US trade negotiations [1][3]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: It is also expected to be in a large - range oscillation. Global rapeseed production has recovered year - on - year, but soil moisture in some areas of Canadian rapeseed is dry. In the domestic market, rapeseed and rapeseed meal inventories in oil mills are decreasing, but still at a relatively high level year - on - year. High tariffs and low imports support the price, but the improving import profit of Canadian rapeseed exerts upward pressure. The low price difference between bean meal and rapeseed meal in the spot market is not conducive to consumption. Attention should be paid to the improvement of Sino - Canadian relations and Sino - Australian progress [1][5]. - **Palm Oil**: Caution should be exercised when chasing long positions. The July USDA supply - demand report lowered the global palm oil ending inventory for the new year, and India's palm oil imports increased by 61.19% in June, which is positive for the market. Indonesia's plan to achieve the B40 target and conduct B50 research is also positive. However, after a series of positive factors, the market may return to the July fundamentals, and there is a possibility of inventory accumulation in July. There is a risk of price correction in the next one to two weeks, and opportunities to go long after price stabilization can be considered [1][7]. - **Cotton**: A cautious bearish view is taken. In the international market, the drought in the US cotton - growing areas has slightly affected the soil moisture, but the overall cotton situation is still good. In the domestic market, the sown area and yield per unit of new cotton have increased, but there may be potential weather disturbances in August. The commercial inventory is decreasing rapidly, but the replenishment power of downstream products has slowed down. The demand from textile enterprises is at a five - year low, and attention should be paid to high - selling opportunities and the 11 - 1 reverse spread [1][11]. - **Red Dates**: A cautious bearish view is also taken. The growth of new - season jujube trees is good, and the expected significant yield reduction due to the "alternate - bearing" phenomenon has not occurred. High inventory persists, and it is difficult to accelerate inventory reduction under weak demand. The implementation of the floor - purchase orders by some enterprises is limited, and it is recommended to be cautious when short - selling at high prices [1][14]. - **Live Pigs**: A cautious bullish view is held. In the short term, the slowdown of the live - pig slaughter rhythm and the pressure - holding and reluctant - to - sell sentiment of the breeding end support the price bottom. However, there is still a back - end supply pressure after the phased pressure eases, and the long - and medium - term over - capacity situation remains. For the 09 contract, beware of further callback risks; for the 01 contract and far - month contracts, consider going long at low prices or adopting the cross - year reverse spread [1][17]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Bean Meal - **Market Data**: The closing price of the main bean - meal futures contract was 2,990 yuan/ton, down 1.03% from the previous day. The national average spot price was 2,943.43 yuan/ton, down 0.67%. The national average soybean - pressing profit was - 173.9096 yuan/ton, down 21.27 yuan/ton [2]. - **Inventory Situation**: As of July 18, 2025, the national port soybean inventory was 7.979 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 252,000 tons; the soybean inventory of 125 oil mills was 6.4224 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 152,500 tons; the bean - meal inventory was 998,400 tons, a week - on - week increase of 112,200 tons [3]. Rapeseed Meal - **Market Data**: The closing price of the main rapeseed - meal futures contract was 2,660 yuan/ton, down 0.56% from the previous day. The national average spot price was 2,641.58 yuan/ton, down 0.71%. The national average rapeseed spot - pressing profit was - 620.811 yuan/ton, down 23.32 yuan/ton [4]. - **Inventory Situation**: As of July 18, the coastal area's main oil - mill rapeseed inventory was 162,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 16,000 tons; the rapeseed - meal inventory was 12,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 3,100 tons; the unexecuted contracts were 76,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 17,000 tons [4]. Palm Oil - **Market Data**: The closing price of the main palm - oil futures contract was 8,946 yuan/ton, up 0.11% from the previous day. The national average price was 8,993 yuan/ton, down 0.35%. The weekly commercial inventory was 615,500 tons, an increase of 24,100 tons [6]. - **Market Sentiment**: The proportion of those bullish on palm oil increased from 53% to 76% week - on - week, the proportion of those neutral decreased from 29% to 24%, and the proportion of those bearish decreased from 18% to 0 [6]. Cotton - **Market Data**: The closing price of the main Zhengzhou cotton futures contract CF2509 was 14,075 yuan/ton, down 0.67% from the previous day. The domestic spot price remained stable at 15,558 yuan/ton. The spinning profit of textile enterprises was - 1,496.70 yuan/ton, an increase of 99 yuan/ton [8]. - **Supply and Demand Situation**: In the international market, the non - drought rate of US cotton areas decreased by 4% to 89%, and the excellent - good rate decreased by 2% to 55%. In India, the sown cotton area increased by 7% year - on - year. In Brazil, the new - cotton harvest progress reached 16.7%. In the domestic market, the national average yield per unit is expected to increase by 2.5% year - on - year, and the output is expected to exceed 7.4 million tons. The industrial and commercial inventory of domestic cotton decreased by 151,900 tons to 3.1626 million tons [9][10]. Red Dates - **Market Data**: The closing price of the main red - date futures contract CJ2601 was 10,695 yuan/ton, up 2.39% from the previous day. The physical inventory of 36 sample points was 10,090 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 230 tons [12]. - **Production Situation**: The new - season jujube trees are growing well, and the yield is expected to be slightly lower than normal (less than 10% reduction), lower than the previous expectation [13]. Live Pigs - **Market Data**: The closing price of the main live - pig futures contract Lh2509 was 14,125 yuan/ton, down 2.15% from the previous day. The domestic live - pig spot price remained stable at 14,810 yuan/ton. The national sample - enterprise live - pig存栏量 increased by 11,520 to 3.71993 million, and the出栏量 increased by 167,700 to 1.12559 million [15]. - **Supply and Demand Situation**: In the short term, the average weight of live pigs has bottomed out and rebounded, and the price is supported by the pressure - holding and reluctant - to - sell sentiment. In the medium term, the number of new - born piglets from January to May 2025 increased, indicating potential growth in the second - half - year出栏量. In the long term, the policy - driven elimination of backward production capacity has limited coverage, and the industry has not yet entered the stage of full - scale loss and capacity elimination [16].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 棉花早报——2025年7月29日 大越期货投资咨询部 王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询证号： Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 棉花： 1、基本面：ICAC7月报：25/26年度产量2590万吨，消费2560万吨。USDA7月报：25/26年 度产量2578.3万吨，消费2571.8万吨，期末库存1683.5万吨。海关：6月纺织品服装出口 273.1亿美元，同比下降0.1%。6月份我国棉花进口3万吨，同比减少82.1%；棉纱进口11万 吨，同比增加0.1%。农村部7月25/26年度：产量625万吨，进口140万吨，消费740万吨， 期末库存823万吨。中性。 6：预期：中美贸易谈判第三轮正在进行，关注谈判进程。前期抢出口订单基本结束，市 场对金九银十旺季有所期待。郑棉主力09可能临近交割月，期现价差回归动力增加。09短 期运行区间14000-14500。 2、基差：现货3128b全国均价15609，基差1534（09合约），升水期货；偏多。 3、库存：中国农业部25/26年度7月预计期末库存823万吨；偏空。 4、盘面：2 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the given content. Core Viewpoints - The report focuses on various agricultural products, including soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil, palm oil, rapeseed meal, rapeseed oil, corn, hogs, and eggs. It analyzes the impact of factors such as trade negotiations, weather, policies, and market supply - demand on these products' prices and recommends corresponding investment strategies [2][3][4]. Summary by Related Catalogs Soybeans - Domestic soybeans have significantly reduced positions and pulled back. The Sino - US trade negotiation affects market sentiment, and the domestic commodity futures market has cooled down. The US Midwest has good weather, which is conducive to soybean production. Pay attention to the negotiation results, policy, and weather [2]. Soybeans & Soybean Meal - Before August 1st, the US tariff deadline, the third round of Sino - US trade talks will be held in Stockholm. China may resume importing US soybeans in the fourth quarter. If the US weather remains good, new - season soybeans may have a bumper harvest. The oil mill's soybean meal inventory has increased, and the soybean meal market is expected to fluctuate before the tariff issue is clear [3]. Soybean Oil & Palm Oil - The Sino - US trade negotiation affects market sentiment, and the domestic commodity futures market has cooled down. The US Midwest weather is good for soybean production. US soybean oil is strong, and palm oil is affected by multiple factors. It is recommended to buy on dips and be cautious of the short - term oil - strong and meal - weak situation [4]. Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil - Canadian rapeseed prices are expected to be under pressure in the short term due to uncertainties in Sino - Canadian economic and trade relations, fund reduction of long positions, and improved weather. The domestic rapeseed system continues to have low inventories, and it is expected to be in a weak and volatile state in the short term [6]. Corn - In July, CGSCC held 8 import corn auctions, with a continuous decline in the transaction rate and premium. The supply of corn has affected market expectations. The domestic corn market has no major contradictions, and the Dalian corn futures may continue to fluctuate weakly at the bottom [7]. Hogs - The sentiment of hog futures has weakened, and the spot price has been declining. The potential supply in the second half of the year is sufficient, and it is recommended that the industry participate in hedging at high prices [8]. Eggs - The spot price of eggs has declined, and the 08 contract has squeezed the premium. The 09 contract has also been affected. The far - month contracts in the first half of next year are relatively strong. It is necessary to pay attention to whether the spot price can continue the seasonal rebound [9].

Investment Rating - Investment rating: Positive (maintained) [4] Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes the high-quality development of the pig industry, recommending "platform + ecological" service-oriented enterprises like Dekang Agriculture and Animal Husbandry [4][18] - The Ministry of Agriculture held a meeting on July 23 to promote high-quality development in the pig industry, focusing on reducing breeding capacity, controlling new production capacity, and enhancing the competitiveness of the entire industry chain [6][60] - The report indicates that the pig price is currently at 14.1 CNY/kg, with a slight decrease in average weight to 128.48 kg, and a 15 kg piglet priced at 542 CNY/head, reflecting weak demand and a slight price drop [5][17] Summary by Sections 1. Pig Industry - The latest pig price is 14.1 CNY/kg, with a slight decrease in average weight to 128.48 kg, and a 15 kg piglet priced at 542 CNY/head. Weak demand has led to a slight price drop, with a 0.8% decrease in the national pig inventory in June, indicating a potential reduction in pig output in July and August [5][17] - The Ministry of Agriculture's meeting emphasized high-quality development, including reducing breeding capacity, strengthening disease prevention, and promoting resource utilization [6][18] - The report suggests that companies with cost advantages and strong connections with farmers may enjoy excess profits and valuation premiums, recommending Dekang Agriculture and Animal Husbandry and leading pig farming companies like Muyuan Foods and Wens Foodstuffs [18] 2. Poultry Industry - The price of chicken seedlings in Yantai is 2.5 CNY/chick, up 39% month-on-month but down 28% year-on-year. The price of broiler chickens is 3.43 CNY/kg, up 3.9% month-on-month but down 11.4% year-on-year. Demand pressure is easing, and if supply contracts in Q3, prices may rebound [19] - The report highlights the ongoing contradiction of "high capacity, weak consumption" in the white feather chicken industry, with losses forcing breeding farms to reduce capacity [19] 3. Feed Industry - The report recommends Haida Group due to the recovery of the industry, improved management effects, and increased capacity utilization, which is expected to lead to growth in volume and profit [21] 4. Pet Industry - In June, exports of dog and cat food decreased by 13.8% year-on-year, totaling 29,000 tons, with revenue of 820 million CNY (approximately 110 million USD), down 20.2% year-on-year [22][24] - The report notes that while there are concerns about export fluctuations due to tariff uncertainties, long-term prospects remain positive for domestic brands like Guibao and Zhongchong [24] 5. Agricultural Products - The report discusses uncertainties in soybean imports for Q4 and the upward trend in rubber prices, with natural rubber prices breaking through 15,000 CNY/ton [28]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Views of the Report - For gold futures, the overall trend of Shanghai gold futures is in an upward channel and may be at the end of the trend. For silver futures, the overall trend of Shanghai silver futures is steadily rising and is also at the end of the trend. It is recommended to wait and see for both gold and silver futures [7][34] 3. Summary by Directory Gold Futures 3.1 Mid - term Market Analysis - The overall trend of Shanghai gold futures is in an upward channel and may be at the end of the trend. Last week, gold was affected by factors such as the US dollar index, US economic data, Fed policy expectations, geopolitical risks, RMB exchange rate, domestic infrastructure policies, market sentiment, capital flow, and technical aspects. The US dollar index alternately suppressed and supported the gold price. The mild US economic data, stable Fed policy expectations, and geopolitical risks made the gold price seek a direction in the fluctuations. Domestic infrastructure policies and RMB exchange rate fluctuations provided additional support. It is recommended to wait and see [7][8] 3.2 Variety Trading Strategy - Last week, it was expected that the gold main contract 2510 would oscillate, and grid trading was recommended in the 760 - 785 range. This week, it is still expected to oscillate, and grid trading is recommended in the 750 - 800 range [11][12] 3.3 Relevant Data Situation - The content presents the historical data trends of Shanghai gold market trends, COMEX gold market trends, SPDR gold ETF holdings, COMEX gold inventory, US 10 - year Treasury bond yields, US dollar index, US dollar against offshore RMB, gold - silver ratio, Shanghai gold basis, and gold internal - external price difference [19][22][24] Silver Futures 3.1 Mid - term Market Analysis - The overall trend of Shanghai silver futures is steadily rising and is at the end of the trend. Last week, the US - Japan trade agreement improved market risk appetite, but silver was less suppressed due to its stronger industrial attributes. Industrial demand, especially in the photovoltaic and new - energy vehicle fields, provided support. Next week, silver prices will be affected by US economic data, China - US trade negotiation progress, geopolitical risks, and domestic policy orientation. If there is no substantial progress in China - US trade negotiations, silver prices are expected to remain strong; otherwise, silver may face some downward pressure. It is recommended to wait and see [34][36] 3.2 Variety Trading Strategy - Last week, it was expected that the silver contract 2510 would run strongly, with the lower support range of 8800 - 8900 and the upper pressure range of 9450 - 9550. This week, it is still expected to run strongly, with the lower support range of 8800 - 8900 and the upper pressure range of 9200 - 9300 [38] 3.3 Relevant Data Situation - The content shows the historical data trends of Shanghai silver market trends, COMEX silver market trends, SLV silver ETF holdings, COMEX silver inventory, Shanghai silver basis, and silver internal - external price difference [44][46][48]

Group 1: Gold Market Analysis - The gold market is experiencing a cautious bearish sentiment due to recent U.S. economic data, which has mitigated risk aversion despite ongoing geopolitical tensions [2][6] - Recent ETF gold holdings have shown a slight outflow, indicating a short-term recovery in market risk appetite, which is suppressing gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset [2] - The focus for gold prices next week will be on U.S.-EU and U.S.-China trade negotiations, with potential optimism possibly pushing prices down to the $3300 per ounce level [2] Group 2: Technical Analysis of Gold - On a weekly chart, gold prices are in a high-level consolidation phase, with a critical resistance level at $3325; prices above this level indicate a bullish trend [3] - Daily analysis shows that gold is currently testing support levels, with a risk of breaking below these levels, which could lead to a test of weekly support areas [3] - Short-term trading strategy suggests a focus on selling during rebounds and buying on dips, with key resistance at $3355-$3365 and support at $3320-$3310 [5] Group 3: Oil Market Analysis - The oil market is facing a weak downward trend, with U.S. crude oil trading around $65.04 per barrel, reflecting a decline of approximately 0.3% [6] - Recent price movements were influenced by unexpected declines in U.S. crude oil inventories and geopolitical tensions, particularly in Gaza, which have affected market sentiment [6] - Brent crude futures saw a slight increase, closing at $69.18 per barrel, driven by various factors including potential restrictions on Russian gasoline exports [6] Group 4: Technical Analysis of Oil - The medium-term outlook for oil remains bullish, with prices testing the $78 level, although recent MACD indicators suggest a weakening of bullish momentum [7] - Short-term trends indicate volatility, with frequent shifts between buying and selling pressure; the strategy recommends focusing on selling during price rebounds and buying on pullbacks [7] - Key resistance levels for oil are identified at $67.0-$68.0, while support levels are noted at $63.0-$62.0 [7]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the document. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton (2509) and the cotton yarn futures contract (2509) both declined, with weekly decreases of about 0.7% and 0.73% respectively [7][21]. - Internationally, there is a lack of strong factors guiding the US cotton market, which is fluctuating. The third round of China - US trade negotiations will be held, and trade dynamics should be monitored [7]. - Domestically, cotton is in a de - stocking state, and the supply is tight before the new cotton is launched. The inventory of imported cotton in major ports has decreased, while the demand side shows obvious signs of the off - season in the textile industry, with reduced profitability and lower operating rates of spinning enterprises [7]. - In 2025, the overall cotton planting area in China has increased, but there is a high risk of heat damage to cotton in some areas of Xinjiang due to high - temperature weather [7]. - Overall, as prices rise, downstream procurement becomes more cautious, and the upward momentum of the market is weakening. However, the tight supply provides strong support, and the market is expected to adjust strongly. It is recommended to wait and see for now, and pay attention to weather and trade relations [7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - to - Week Summary - **Market Analysis**: The main contract of Zhengzhou cotton (2509) and the cotton yarn futures contract (2509) declined this week, with decreases of about 0.7% and 0.73% respectively [7][21]. - **Market Outlook**: Internationally, the US cotton market is fluctuating. Domestically, cotton supply is tight before the new cotton is launched, and the textile industry is in the off - season. The overall market is expected to adjust strongly, and it is recommended to wait and see [7]. - **Future Trading Tips**: Pay attention to changes in foreign cotton prices, macro factors, trade policies, and weather conditions [7]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **US Cotton Market**: The price of the US cotton December contract decreased slightly this week, with a weekly decline of about 0.28%. As of July 15, 2025, the non - commercial long positions of ICE No. 2 cotton increased by 0.89% month - on - month, the non - commercial short positions decreased by 4.40% month - on - month, and the net position increased by 15.67% month - on - month [11]. - **Foreign Cotton Spot Market**: As of July 17, the net export sales of US cotton in the current market year decreased by 32,700 bales, and the net export sales in the next market year increased by 132,600 bales. The export shipments increased by 18% compared with the previous week. As of July 22, the Cotlook:A index was 78.65 cents per pound, a 1.01% decrease month - on - month [16]. - **Futures Market**: The main contract of Zhengzhou cotton (2509) and the cotton yarn futures contract (2509) declined this week. As of this week, the net position of the top 20 futures traders in cotton was - 39,736, and that in cotton yarn was - 394 lots. The number of cotton futures warehouse receipts was 9,265, and that of cotton yarn was 96 [21][27][33]. - **Spot Market**: As of July 25, 2025, the spot price index of cotton 3128B was 15,549 yuan per ton, and the spot price index of Chinese cotton yarn C32S was 20,740 yuan per ton. As of July 23, 2025, the CY index: OEC10s (air - spun yarn) was 14,800 yuan per ton [41][54]. - **Imported Cotton (Yarn) Cost**: As of July 23, 2025, the import price index of cotton (FC Index):M: 1% quota port pick - up price was 13,728 yuan per ton, a 0.26% increase month - on - month; the sliding - scale duty port pick - up price was 14,438 yuan per ton, a 0.17% increase month - on - month. The import price index of cotton yarn (FCY Index): port pick - up price: C32S was 21,203 yuan per ton, a 0.09% increase month - on - month [58]. - **Imported Cotton Cost - Profit**: As of July 23, 2025, the cost - profit of imported cotton sliding - scale duty port pick - up price (M) was 1,105 yuan per ton, and that of imported cotton quota port pick - up price (1%) was 1,815 yuan per ton [62]. 3.3 Industry Situation - **Supply Side**: As of June, the total commercial cotton inventory was 2.8298 million tons, a 18.18% decrease month - on - month. As of June 15, the industrial cotton inventory of textile enterprises was 930,100 tons, a 1.17% decrease month - on - month. In June 2025, China imported about 30,000 tons of cotton, a year - on - year decrease of about 82.1% [66][70]. - **Mid - end Industry**: As of June 15, the yarn inventory of textile enterprises was 23.864 days, a 6.8% increase month - on - month, and the grey cloth inventory was 35.46 days, a 7.81% increase month - on - month [74]. - **Terminal Consumption**: As of June 30, 2025, the monthly export value of textile yarns, fabrics and products was 1.2048207 billion US dollars, a 4.62% decrease month - on - month; the monthly export value of clothing and clothing accessories was 1.5266714 billion US dollars, a 12.44% increase month - on - month. The cumulative retail sales of clothing, footwear, hats, needles and textiles were 742.59 billion yuan, a 20.98% increase month - on - month, and the cumulative year - on - year was 3.1%, a 6.06% decrease month - on - month [78][82]. 3.4 Options and Stock Market Correlation - **Options Market**: Information about the implied volatility of cotton at - the - money options this week is provided, but specific data is not detailed in the summary part [83]. - **Stock Market**: Information about the price - earnings ratio trend of Xinjiang Nongkai Development Co., Ltd. is provided, but specific data is not detailed in the summary part [88].

Report Overview - Industry: Cotton [1] - Date: July 25, 2025 [2] - Researchers: Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, Liu Youran [3] 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Zhengzhou cotton is in a volatile adjustment phase. The spot cotton price index has increased, and the pure - cotton yarn market price has risen, but the downstream has difficulty in increasing volume. Spinning mills are still suffering significant losses, and the operating rate has decreased. The all - cotton grey fabric market has few inquiries and mainly small and urgent orders [7]. - Macroeconomically, trade negotiations are approaching. Internationally, the cotton growth progress is slow but the good - quality rate is improving, with limited external market drive. Domestically, the sown area has increased, and there is an expectation of a good harvest. Supply pressure has emerged in the short - term, but the tight commercial inventory contradiction in the 2024/25 season still exists. The short - term main contract is in a volatile adjustment, with the position shifting to the far - month contract and the 9 - 1 spread converging [8]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Review**: Zhengzhou cotton is in a volatile adjustment. The latest 328 - grade cotton price index is 15,563 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The pure - cotton yarn market price has risen, but the downstream is difficult to increase volume. Spinning mills are in large - scale losses, and the operating rate has decreased. The all - cotton grey fabric market has few inquiries and mainly small and urgent orders [7]. - **Market Analysis**: Macroeconomically, trade negotiations are approaching. Internationally, the growth progress is slow but the good - quality rate is good, with limited external market drive. Domestically, the sown area has increased, and there is an expectation of a good harvest. The supply side has brought short - term pressure to cotton prices, but the tight commercial inventory contradiction in the 2024/25 season still exists. The short - term main contract is in a volatile adjustment, with the position shifting to the far - month contract and the 9 - 1 spread converging [8]. 3.2 Industry News - In mid - July, most parts of Xinjiang had high temperatures. Precipitation was higher in most parts of Hami and lower in the rest of Xinjiang. Sunshine hours were higher in parts of northern Xinjiang and lower in the rest. The weather was beneficial to the growth of summer corn in southern Xinjiang but not conducive to the growth of spring wheat, spring corn, cotton, and fruit [9]. 3.3 Data Overview - The report provides multiple data charts, including the China Cotton Price Index, cotton spot price, cotton futures price, cotton basis change, CF spread, cotton commercial inventory, cotton industrial inventory, and warehouse receipt volume, etc., with data sources from Wind and the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures [17][18][19]