Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views - **Overall Market**: The reports cover various commodities, including coal, metals, agricultural products, and energy. Each commodity has its own supply - demand situation, price trends, and influencing factors. Market participants should pay attention to factors such as policy changes, geopolitical events, and macro - economic conditions [1][3][4]. - **Price Trends**: Different commodities show different price trends. Some are expected to have short - term support or upward movement, while others may face downward pressure or continue to fluctuate [1][3][4]. 3. Summary by Commodity **Coal and Coking Products** - **Coking Coal**: The average national ton - coke profit is - 13 yuan/ton. The market trading atmosphere is good, and the coal price in some producing areas continues to rebound. Due to frequent coal mine accidents and limited production increase space, the coking coal fundamentals are healthy, and the futures price is expected to be supported in the short term [1]. **Metals** - **Gold**: With the Trump administration relaxing tariff policies, the tariff disturbance may weaken, and precious metals may face a further correction risk [1]. - **Silver**: The silver price has risen by nearly 70% this year. The spot price is high, but it may face a correction risk after the market has priced in the Fed's October interest rate cut [4]. - **Iron Ore**: The inventory of imported iron ore in 45 ports has increased, and the daily port clearance volume has decreased. The iron ore fundamentals have slightly weakened, but the overall pressure is not prominent. The price is expected to fluctuate in the short term [4]. - **Steel (Rebar)**: After the National Day, the demand for rebar has recovered, and the supply has decreased while the demand has increased. The inventory has decreased, but it is still at a relatively high level. With policy support, the futures price may repair upwards from a low level [3]. **Agricultural Products** - **Soybeans**: The domestic feed enterprise's soybean meal inventory days have decreased. Due to strong domestic demand, short - term bean No. 2 may stabilize in a volatile manner, and the domestic new - season soybeans may have upward space [7]. - **Palm Oil**: The export volume of Malaysian palm oil from October 1 - 15 has increased significantly. The market lacks clear news guidance, and the short - term supply - demand trend remains unchanged. It is recommended to buy on dips [7]. **Energy** - **Crude Oil**: OPEC+ is increasing production, supply from Russia and the US is high, and global demand growth is slowing. Geopolitical factors also suppress oil prices. However, if the Sino - US trade negotiation reaches more consensus, the oil price may be supported in the short term [8]. - **Asphalt**: The refinery's production is stable, and the demand is affected by weather. The demand and production may show a seasonal decline, and the price is under pressure [9]. **Chemical Products** - **Rubber**: Overseas weather improvement has put pressure on raw material prices, and the cost support has weakened. The rubber price may further decline, but the inventory decline in Qingdao Port limits the decline. It is recommended to operate cautiously [10]. - **PVC**: The supply of PVC has decreased from a high level, and the production is expected to increase. The demand is picking up steadily, and the inventory has decreased slightly. It is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term [11]. - **Soda Ash**: The price of soda ash is stable and slightly weak. The supply is high, and the downstream glass industry has stable production lines and general procurement sentiment. The soda ash 01 contract is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term [12]. - **Plastic (LLDPE)**: The LLDPE production has decreased, but the market supply is still sufficient. The downstream demand increases slowly, and the cost support is weak. The L2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the short term [13]. **Financial Products** - **Medium - and Long - Term Treasury Bonds**: With the government's measures to boost the economy and the central bank's loose monetary policy, the medium - and long - term bond market is bearish. The bond market operation is difficult, and a mid - term oscillatory thinking is recommended [5]. **Livestock** - **Pigs**: The current supply - demand contradiction is still prominent. The supply is expected to be loose in the short term, and the price will be suppressed. It is recommended to wait and see [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Financial Markets**: - Gold: Short - term price is in a volatile phase, with a risk of decline. [14][15] - U.S. Stock Index Futures: Market risk preference is expected to improve, but volatility remains high. It is recommended to take a bullish approach and buy on dips. [21] - Treasury Bond Futures: The bond market has strengthened, but risks exist. It is recommended to take a cautious approach in short - term trading. [27][29] - Foreign Exchange Futures (USD Index): The USD is expected to be volatile in the short term. [18][19] - Stock Index Futures: It is recommended to allocate evenly among various stock indices. [25] - **Commodity Markets**: - Agricultural Products: - Sugar: ICE raw sugar is not expected to continue to decline significantly. Zhengzhou sugar is expected to be weak and volatile in the short term, and excessive short - selling is not recommended. [36][37] - Cotton: The upside of Zhengzhou cotton is limited, and it is under pressure in the short term. [41][42] - Soybean Meal: The price of soybean meal is expected to be weak and volatile. [47] - Corn Starch: The price difference between rice and flour may be repaired when approaching delivery. [51] - Red Dates: It is recommended to wait and see before the red dates are harvested and priced. [54] - Corn: The 11 - contract is expected to decline, and the 01 - contract should be approached with a short - term bearish and long - term bullish strategy. [55] - Black Metals: - Rebar/HRC: Steel prices are expected to be volatile and weak in the short term, and a volatile approach is recommended. [45][46] - Coking Coal/Coke: The price of coking coal in the Changzhi market is expected to be stable and slightly strong in the short term, but the sustainability of demand needs to be observed. [49][50] - Non - ferrous Metals: - Copper: The price of copper is expected to be volatile in the short term. It is recommended to wait for opportunities to buy on dips for mid - term long positions. [57][58] - Polysilicon: It is expected that the spot price will remain flat in October. It is not recommended to chase the rise, and attention should be paid to buying on dips when the price is at a discount to the spot. [61][62] - Industrial Silicon: It is more cost - effective to buy on dips. [64] - Lead: Unilateral trading should be observed with a volatile perspective, and mid - term positive spreads between domestic and foreign markets can be considered. [65][66] - Zinc: It is recommended to wait and see for unilateral trading, and pay attention to mid - term positive spreads for arbitrage. [68] - Lithium Carbonate: Short - term trading should be range - bound, and mid - term short - selling opportunities should be considered after the peak demand season. [69][70] - Nickel: It is recommended for the allocation portfolio to buy mid - to long - term long positions on dips, and for the speculative portfolio to consider selling near - the - money puts and buying deep - out - of - the - money calls. [72][73] - Energy Chemicals: - Carbon Emissions: CEA is expected to be volatile and weak in the short term. [74][75] - Crude Oil: The price of crude oil is expected to be volatile and bearish in the short term. [75][76] - Methanol: It is recommended to wait and see. [77][78] - PVC: The price is expected to be volatile and weak in the short term, and the downside space is limited. [80] - Caustic Soda: The price of caustic soda futures is expected to be weak in the short term. [82] - Bottle Chips: The supply - demand contradiction may accumulate in the fourth quarter, and there is pressure on the processing fee. [85] - Urea: It is not recommended to be overly bearish when the 2601 contract falls below 1600 yuan/ton. [88] - Soda Ash: A mid - term strategy of shorting on rallies is recommended, and attention should be paid to the progress of new capacity. [90] - Float Glass: It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of long glass and short soda ash when the spread widens. [92] - Shipping Index: For the 12 - contract, continue to pay attention to low - buying opportunities, and pay attention to risk management due to geopolitical disturbances. [94][95] 3. Summary by Directory 1. Financial News and Comments 1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - **News**: Trump met with Zelensky, and the Shanghai Futures Exchange raised the margin for precious metals. [13][14] - **Comment**: Gold prices fluctuated sharply on Friday, reaching a new high before falling back. The market's bullish sentiment cooled down, and profit - taking occurred. Short - term gold is overbought, and attention should be paid to the risk of decline. [14] - **Investment Advice**: Gold prices will enter a volatile phase in the short term, and attention should be paid to the risk of decline. [15] 1.2 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - USD Index) - **News**: The Bank of Japan's governor did not disclose whether to raise interest rates before the October policy meeting. The ECB's Lagarde advocated a unified approach to Russian assets. Trump urged Zelensky to accept a cease - fire. [16][17] - **Comment**: Trump pressured Ukraine to end the conflict, but a cease - fire along the current front line faces significant resistance. The USD is expected to be volatile in the short term. [18] - **Investment Advice**: The USD is expected to be volatile in the short term. [19] 1.3 Macro Strategy (U.S. Stock Index Futures) - **News**: Trump signed an executive order to impose tariffs on imported trucks, and Fed's Musalem supported a rate cut in October. [20][21] - **Comment**: With the start of the earnings season, the profit forecast of U.S. stocks has been revised upwards, and the risk of regional banks has not further spread. The Sino - U.S. negotiation situation has improved marginally, which is positive for risk assets. U.S. stocks may continue to recover their previous losses next week. [21] - **Investment Advice**: It is expected that market risk preference will continue to improve, but volatility remains high. A bullish approach should be taken, and buying on dips is recommended. [21] 1.4 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - **News**: Vice - Premier He Lifeng held a video call with U.S. officials, and the Ministry of Finance announced measures to consolidate economic recovery. [22][23] - **Comment**: Tariff escalation has a long - tail effect. Next week, attention should be paid to the progress of Sino - U.S. negotiations and the Fourth Plenary Session. Stock indices are in a high - level volatile pattern. [24][25] - **Investment Advice**: It is recommended to allocate evenly among various stock indices. [25] 1.5 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - **News**: The central government allocated 500 billion yuan from the local government debt balance limit, and the central bank conducted 164.8 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchases. [26][27] - **Comment**: The bond market has strengthened as expected, but risks exist. It is recommended to realize the floating profits of some unilateral trading positions next week. [27] - **Investment Advice**: A cautious approach is recommended for short - term trading. [29] 2. Commodity News and Comments 2.1 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - **News**: The actual soybean crushing volume of domestic oil mills in the 42nd week was 2.1662 million tons, and the expected volume in the 43rd week is 2.3335 million tons. [30] - **Comment**: The palm oil market lacks a clear driver, and the soybean oil market lacks data and policy guidance and continues to fluctuate. [30] - **Investment Advice**: For palm oil, pay attention to production, inventory, and replenishment in India. A long - allocation approach is recommended. Soybean oil is expected to fluctuate, and rapeseed oil is recommended to be observed. [30][31] 2.2 Agricultural Products (Sugar) - **News**: The Philippines suspended sugar imports until the end of the 2025/26 season. China's cumulative sugar imports in the 2024/25 season were 4.63 million tons. The number of sugar - carrying ships in Brazilian ports increased to 90. Brazilian sugar production in the second half of September was 3.14 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 10.8%. [32][33][34][35] - **Comment**: Brazilian sugar production is strong, but the sugar - making ratio has declined for three consecutive weeks, indicating that sugar mills are more willing to produce ethanol. ICE raw sugar is not expected to continue to decline significantly. [36] - **Investment Advice**: Zhengzhou sugar is expected to be weak and volatile in the short term, and excessive short - selling is not recommended. [37] 2.3 Agricultural Products (Cotton) - **News**: The cumulative public inspection of Xinjiang cotton was 560,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 124%. India's cotton production and imports were adjusted. Cotton prices stabilized, and the downstream market was weak. [38][39][40] - **Comment**: The purchase price of Xinjiang seed cotton is stable, which supports Zhengzhou cotton. However, the pressure of hedging and weak downstream demand limit the upside. [41] - **Investment Advice**: The upside of Zhengzhou cotton is limited, and it is under pressure in the short term. [42] 2.4 Black Metals (Rebar/HRC) - **News**: China's shipbuilding indicators ranked first globally in the first three quarters. The daily average pig iron output of 247 steel mills was 2.4095 million tons. [44][45] - **Comment**: The inventory of five major steel products has declined, but the absolute inventory is still high. The demand for building materials is weak, and the supply pressure of finished steel exists. Steel prices are expected to be volatile and weak. [45] - **Investment Advice**: A volatile approach is recommended for steel prices in the short term. [46] 2.5 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - **News**: The soybean crushing volume of domestic oil mills is expected to increase. [47] - **Comment**: The U.S. government shutdown has led to a lack of data. The domestic supply of imported soybeans in the fourth quarter is sufficient, and the inventory of soybean meal is high. [47] - **Investment Advice**: The price of soybean meal is expected to be weak and volatile. [47] 2.6 Black Metals (Coking Coal/Coke) - **News**: The price of coking coal in the Changzhi market is stable. [48][49] - **Comment**: The production of coking coal is normal, and the demand for replenishment exists. The price of coking coal is expected to be stable and slightly strong in the short term, but the sustainability of demand needs to be observed. [49] - **Investment Advice**: The price of coking coal is expected to be stable and slightly strong in the short term, but the sustainability of demand needs to be observed. [50] 2.7 Agricultural Products (Corn Starch) - **News**: The operating rate of starch sugar products has increased slightly after the holiday. [51] - **Comment**: The theoretical profit of starch enterprises has improved, and the operating rate has increased, and the inventory has accumulated seasonally. The price difference between rice and flour may be repaired when approaching delivery. [51] - **Investment Advice**: The price difference between rice and flour may be repaired when approaching delivery. [51] 2.8 Agricultural Products (Red Dates) - **News**: The price of red dates in the Hebei Cuierzhuang market fluctuated slightly. [52] - **Comment**: The futures price of red dates rose, and the supply is about to enter the harvesting period, while the demand is weak. [53][54] - **Investment Advice**: It is recommended to wait and see before the red dates are harvested and priced. [54] 2.9 Agricultural Products (Corn) - **News**: The inventory of major corn processing enterprises increased by 5.48%. [55] - **Comment**: The inventory of deep - processing enterprises has entered the seasonal increase stage. The spot price is expected to be weak and volatile, and the futures price is expected to follow the decline. [55] - **Investment Advice**: The 11 - contract is expected to decline, and the 01 - contract should be approached with a short - term bearish and long - term bullish strategy. [55] 2.10 Non - ferrous Metals (Copper) - **News**: Codelco raised the copper premium in Europe in 2026 to a record high. Zijin Mining's net profit in the third quarter increased by 52.25% year - on - year. [56][57] - **Comment**: The market will focus on Sino - U.S. trade negotiations and U.S. inflation data. The macro factors may cause short - term fluctuations in copper prices. The domestic and LME inventories show different trends. The price of copper is expected to be volatile. [57][58] - **Investment Advice**: It is recommended to wait for opportunities to buy on dips for mid - term long positions. Arbitrage should be observed. [58] 2.11 Non - ferrous Metals (Polysilicon) - **News**: Hebei plans to adjust the time - of - use electricity price. The price of polysilicon products is stable, and the demand is weakening at the end of October. [59][60][61] - **Comment**: The price of polysilicon is expected to be flat. Although there are many negative factors in the fundamentals, the upstream has no obvious inventory pressure, and production restrictions and sales restrictions are still being implemented. [61] - **Investment Advice**: It is expected that the spot price will remain flat in October. It is not recommended to chase the rise, and attention should be paid to buying on dips when the price is at a discount to the spot. [62] 2.12 Non - ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon) - **News**: The operating rate of silicon enterprises in Xinjiang has increased, while that in the south has decreased. The social inventory has increased. [63][64] - **Comment**: The fundamentals are weakening, and the price is under pressure. However, the price needs to break through 10,000 yuan/ton to increase supply significantly. Buying on dips is more cost - effective. [64] - **Investment Advice**: Buying on dips is more cost - effective. [64] 2.13 Non - ferrous Metals (Lead) - **News**: The LME 0 - 3 lead was at a discount of $44.99/ton on October 16. [65] - **Comment**: The prices of domestic and LME lead showed different trends last week. The supply of primary and secondary lead is expected to recover. The inventory of lead ingots has increased, but the short - term supply - demand mismatch may continue. The internal - external price ratio is expected to return. [65] - **Investment Advice**: Unilateral trading should be observed with a volatile perspective, and mid - term positive spreads between domestic and foreign markets can be considered. [66] 2.14 Non - ferrous Metals (Zinc) - **News**: The LME 0 - 3 zinc was at a premium of $137.2/ton on October 16. Bolivia's zinc concentrate production decreased in 2025, while Peru's increased in August. [67][68] - **Comment**: The high premium of LME zinc has stimulated a small amount of overseas warehousing, and the zinc ingot export window has opened briefly. The global low - inventory situation is difficult to improve. The price of Shanghai zinc is expected to be volatile, and the price difference may turn positive. [68] - **Investment Advice**: It is recommended to wait and see for unilateral trading, and pay attention to mid - term positive spreads for arbitrage. Positive - spread positions should be closed in batches on dips. [68] 2.15 Non - ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - **News**: Tianqi Lithium's 30,000 - ton lithium hydroxide project in Zhangjiagang, Jiangsu, reached the standard. [69] - **Comment**: The inventory of lithium carbonate has decreased, which supports the price. The price may be supported by the de - stocking in the peak season, but further upward momentum depends on supply disruptions. [69] - **Investment Advice**: Short - term trading should be range - bound, and mid - term short - selling opportunities should be considered after the peak demand season. [70] 2

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the document regarding the industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints - Short - fiber: Short - term range - bound, medium - term bearish. Currently, it is in a weak and volatile state, but the downside space is limited. There are uncertainties in Sino - US trade negotiations, and the polyester industry's profit situation is good during the decline, with downstream profit repair. There is support from demand and spot transactions at the bottom [3][8]. - Bottle chips: Weak and volatile, but the downside space is limited. In the fourth quarter, the factory's operating rate is expected to remain around 80%. There are uncertainties in Sino - US trade negotiations, and the polyester industry's profit situation is good during the decline, with downstream profit repair. There is support from demand and spot transactions at the bottom. However, there is a risk of inventory accumulation from October to November [9]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Short - fiber (PF) Supply - The average operating rate of short - fiber factories is 94.3%, and the operating rate of direct - spinning polyester staple fiber for spinning remains at 94.5%. It is expected to fluctuate in the range of 93% - 95% and may gradually decline slightly from October to November due to downstream pressure [8]. Demand - There is a lot of low - level restocking in the spot market, and short - fiber inventory continues to decline. The 1.4D equity inventory is 5 days, and the physical inventory is 15.8 days. The profits of downstream sectors have mostly recovered, and there is room for price - cut promotions. The yarn operating rate remains stable, and the physical inventory has decreased slightly. The terminal knitting is better than weaving, showing a structural peak season. After the national cooling, the demand for winter fabrics has improved [8]. Valuation - The current spot premium is 1000 - 1100 yuan/ton, which is neutral. The futures processing fee is 1000 yuan/ton. The processing fee and inter - month spread valuations are basically reasonable, and the basis is high [8]. Strategy - Unilateral: Gradually observe and take profit on short positions. - Inter - period: Hold long spreads. - Inter - variety: None [8]. 2. Bottle chips (PR) Supply - In the fourth quarter, the factory's operating rate is expected to remain around 80%. This week, it has slightly increased to 82%. On the one hand, the processing fee has recovered, and on the other hand, it is the off - season for demand. Subsequently, it is expected to maintain production cuts and industry self - discipline. The Fuhai project's commissioning has been postponed again, and factories may slightly reduce their loads starting from November [9]. Demand - The price continues to decline, and low - price purchases are still active. The inventory of bottle - chip factories has decreased to about 17 days. From October to November, demand decreases month - on - month. The operating rate of beverage factories has decreased to about 80%, and the operating rates of edible oil and sheet material factories have also decreased. Sea freight has declined, and the export volume in subsequent months is expected to be in the range of 50 - 550,000 tons from October to November [9]. Valuation - The spot processing fee is 500 - 550 yuan/ton, which is high. The processing fees for the November and December futures contracts are 450 - 500 yuan/ton, which are high, but it may be difficult to compress them due to weak raw material prices [9]. Strategy - Unilateral: Gradually observe and take profit on short positions. - Inter - period: Hold long spreads. - Inter - variety: Go long on TA and short on PR for the November and December contracts (enter when the processing fee is around 480 - 500) [9]. Cost and Profit - The polymerization cost has dropped to about 5100 yuan/ton. The raw materials are weak, and the bottle - chip processing fee is oscillating at a high level. The export profit has also recovered, about 830 - 850 yuan/ton [41]. Inventory - The overall PTA inventory of polyester factories has increased. The inventory of domestic polyester bottle - chip factories has decreased to around 17 days. It is expected to accumulate inventory from October to November [45]. Device Changes - Most factories maintain a 20% production cut. The 1.1 million - ton bottle - chip device of China Resources Zhuhai was shut down briefly due to a typhoon and has gradually restarted. A 600,000 - ton polyester bottle - chip device in China Resources Jiangyin was shut down in mid - September. The remaining 750,000 - ton device in Yisheng Hainan remains shut down. The 300,000 - ton new device of Fuhai is expected to be commissioned around the end of October [51]. Demand - The operating rate of downstream industries has declined. The beverage industry, sheet material industry, and edible oil industry all show a decline in operating rates. However, there are new production lines being put into operation in the beverage industry, and the demand for edible oil remains neutral. The penetration rate of ready - to - drink beverages in the sinking market is increasing, which drives the demand for sheet materials. The take - away war has increased the demand for sheet materials, and the demand from supermarkets has recovered [54][61][67]. Global Trade Flow - Overseas bottle - chip production capacity has increased little in recent years. The downstream demand overseas will increasingly rely on imports. China's bottle - chip exports mainly flow to Southeast Asia, South Asia, Central Asia, Russia, Eastern Europe, South Korea, Mexico, the Middle East, Africa, and South America [73]. Export Situation - From January to August 2025, the total export volume of domestic polyester bottle chips and slices was 5.195 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 16.1%. Traditional important export destinations have maintained good growth, and the exports to Indonesia, Vietnam, and South Korea have increased significantly month - on - month [80]. Anti - Dumping Policy - Many countries have implemented anti - dumping policies on Chinese bottle chips, including the United States, Brazil, Japan, the European Union, South Korea, Mexico, India, and Malaysia [91]. Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - From October to November, inventory will accumulate, but the amplitude is not high. The supply - side assumption is that mainstream factories will maintain production cuts, Sanfang will slightly increase production, and Fuhai will commission a 300,000 - ton device at the end of October (production will be realized starting from November). The demand assumption is that downstream demand will increase by 5% year - on - year compared with the peak season of last year, and the export demand will be around 600,000 tons in subsequent months [92][93].

豆粕：贸易事件不确定，低位震荡 豆一：震荡 吴光静 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0011992 wuguangjing@gtht.com 报告导读： 上周（10.13-10.17），美豆期价涨势为主，因为中美贸易谈判希望、国内大豆压榨需求较好。从周 K 线角度，10 月 17 日当周，美豆主力 11 月合约周涨幅 1.39%，美豆粕主力 12 月合约周涨幅 1.96%。 二 〇 二 五 年 度 2025 年 10 月 19 日 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 期货研究 上周（10.13-10.17），国内豆粕期价偏弱，豆一期价偏强。豆粕方面，盘面依然交易中美缓和、中 加缓和等。豆一方面，盘面偏强可能因为中美贸易摩擦担忧、国内政策支持预期。东北产区豆价也出现小 幅上涨，具有偏多影响。从周 K 线角度，10 月 17 日当周，豆粕主力 m2601 合约周跌幅 1.85%，豆一主力 a2511 合约周涨幅 2.03%。（上述期货价格及涨跌幅数据引自文华财经） 上周（10.13-10.17），国际大豆市场主要基本面情况：1）美国政府停摆持续，美国农业部相关报告 依然暂停发布，影响不大。美国政府维持停摆状态，美国农业部相 ...

国泰君安期货·能源化工 短纤、瓶片周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所 陈鑫超 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020238 贺晓勤 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0017709 钱嘉寅（联系人）期货从业资格号：F03124480 日期：2025年10月19日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 瓶片（PR） 短纤：短期震荡市，中期偏弱 估值与利润 基本面运行情况 供需平衡表 03 短纤（PF） 估值与利润 基本面运行情况 CONTENTS 01 观点小结 上游观点汇总 瓶片：震荡偏弱 2 02 观点小结 01 本周短纤观点：偏弱震荡但下方空间不大 | 供应 | 短纤工厂开工维持，平均开工率94.3%，纺纱用直纺涤短开工维持94.5%，短纤后续预计在93%-95%区间震荡，10-11月更多看下游压力，可 能逐渐小幅下行。 | | --- | --- | | 需求 | 现货市场低位补库较多，短纤库存继续下降，1.4D权益库存在5天，实物库存15.8天。价格持续下跌过程 ...

Group 1 - The U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessant and Chinese Vice Premier Foley Fang are scheduled to have a phone conversation to discuss ongoing trade negotiations between the U.S. and China [2][3] - The timing of this call is significant as it follows a week of heightened tensions, and it may represent a potential breakthrough in negotiations [4][6] - The market's reaction to comments made by President Trump regarding China indicates that investor sentiment is closely tied to trade developments [5][9] Group 2 - There is uncertainty about the content and outcomes of the upcoming call, with no guarantees of significant progress being made [6][7] - A larger breakthrough in trade relations is expected to require a face-to-face meeting between the top leaders of both countries, which is still planned for later this month in Asia [8]

Group 1 - The core point of the article highlights a significant increase in domestic gold prices, with an overall rise exceeding 30 yuan per gram, indicating a bullish trend in the gold market [1][4]. - Shanghai China Gold saw the largest increase of 46 yuan per gram, pricing at 1168 yuan per gram, while Chow Sang Sang reached a new high at 1281 yuan per gram, reflecting competitive pricing among major brands [1][3]. - The price spread between high and low gold prices has slightly narrowed to 113 yuan per gram, suggesting a more stable market environment [1]. Group 2 - The article provides a detailed list of gold prices from various brands, with notable increases across the board, such as Lao Miao and Liufeng both at 1279 yuan per gram, and Cai Bai at 1215 yuan per gram, which rose by 45 yuan [1][3]. - Platinum prices also saw an upward trend, with Chow Sang Sang's platinum jewelry increasing by 13 yuan per gram, indicating a broader rise in precious metal prices [4]. - The article mentions a significant rise in gold recycling prices, with Lao Feng Xiang offering a recovery price of 1000.70 yuan per gram, reflecting the growing demand for recycled gold [4]. Group 3 - Internationally, spot gold prices reached a historic high, closing at 4327.49 USD per ounce, with a subsequent rise to 4364.89 USD per ounce, indicating strong global demand [6]. - Analysts suggest that the potential for gold prices to reach 5000 USD per ounce will depend on the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions and the outcomes of US-China trade negotiations [6]. - The Federal Reserve's recent dovish stance, with discussions of a potential rate cut, has further supported the upward trend in gold prices, indicating a favorable environment for gold investments [6].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the performance of gold futures, with the Shanghai gold main contract reported at 966.22 yuan/gram, reflecting a 1.83% increase [1] - The macroeconomic context indicates a slight decline in consumer spending and a generally weak labor demand, as noted in the Federal Reserve's Beige Book [1] - The Federal Reserve's member Milan suggests accelerating interest rate cuts, with a realistic expectation of two more cuts this year, impacting the dollar index and U.S. Treasury yields [1] Group 2 - Domestic economic growth is showing signs of acceleration, despite ongoing tensions between China and the U.S., with both sides expressing restraint [1] - Various industries in China are rolling out growth stabilization plans, supported by increased policy measures, which are expected to boost domestic risk appetite [1] - The market's trading logic is currently focused on domestic stimulus policies and U.S.-China negotiations, with an enhanced upward macroeconomic drive anticipated in the short term [1] Group 3 - The precious metals market continues to trend upward, with the Shanghai gold main contract closing at 960.34 yuan/gram, up 2.09%, and the Shanghai silver main contract at 11,966 yuan/kilogram, up 2.30% [1] - The expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and geopolitical tensions are driving the ongoing record rise in spot gold prices, although short-term volatility is increasing [1] - The short-term outlook for precious metals remains strong, with a long-term upward trend unchanged; strategies suggest holding long positions or reducing positions at highs in the short term, and buying at lows in the long term [1]

Group 1: Report Summary - The report focuses on the soybean and soybean meal market, covering supply, demand, and inventory aspects [6][7] Group 2: Market Data Basis Data - On October 15, the basis of the soybean meal main contract in Zhangjiagang was 13, down 15; the basis of 43% soybean meal spot in Tianjin was 83, down 35; in Rizhao it was 63, down 15; in Dongguan it was down 15; in Zhanjiang it was 53, down 15; in Fangcheng it was 33, down 15; the basis of rapeseed meal spot in Guangdong was 127, down 15; MJ - 5 was 177, up 3 [4] Spread Data - The spot spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal in Guangdong was 300; the spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal in the main contract was 560; RM1 - 5 was 59 [5] Other Data - The US - dollar - to - RMB exchange rate was 7.0868; the盘面榨利 was - 215.00 yuan/ton; the 2025 import soybean盘面毛利 was 285 yuan/ton [5] Group 3: Supply Analysis - Due to less rainfall in US soybean - producing areas after August, the estimated 2025/26 US soybean yield of 53.5 bushels per acre by USDA may still be lowered; recent less rainfall in US soybean - producing areas is conducive to harvest progress; affected by the US government shutdown, the USDA crop growth report was delayed. As of October 5, the US soybean harvest progress was 38%. Brazilian soybean planting has started, and as of October 4, the sowing rate was 8.2%, much higher than 5.1% last year and close to the five - year average of 9.4%. In October, domestic soybeans are expected to start destocking, but the domestic soybean meal supply in the fourth quarter is still expected to be abundant. If China cannot purchase US soybeans, the soybean meal supply in the first quarter of next year needs to be supplemented, and the source is undetermined [6][7] Group 4: Demand Analysis - Livestock and poultry are expected to maintain high inventory in the short term, supporting feed demand. However, the breeding industry is currently in a loss, and national policies tend to control the inventory and weight of pigs, which may affect the supply in the far - term. Soybean meal has a relatively high cost - performance ratio, and downstream spot goods transactions are good [7] Group 5: Inventory Analysis - Domestic soybean inventory has reached a high level; this week, the soybean meal inventory of oil mills decreased and is currently at a high level; the number of days of soybean meal inventory in feed enterprises decreased [7] Group 6: Market Outlook - Due to the repeated emotions in Sino - US trade negotiations and the poor profit of domestic ship - buying and crushing, the ship - buying progress is expected to be affected. In the short term, limited by the uncertainty of Sino - US trade policies and the high domestic inventory, the market is expected to maintain low - level fluctuations [7]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **豆粕 (M2601)**: Expected to oscillate between 2900 and 2960. The US soybean market is waiting for new guidance from China - US trade negotiations and harvest weather. In China, low - price buying and technical adjustments support the market, but high imports and spot price discounts limit the upside. Overall, it will likely maintain a short - term oscillatory pattern [9]. - **大豆 (A2601)**: Forecasted to fluctuate between 3960 and 4060. The US soybean market has similar uncertainties as above. In China, the cost - advantage of domestic soybeans over imports supports prices, but high imports and expected domestic soybean production growth suppress the market. It will be affected by China - US trade and import volumes in the short term [11]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Tips - **豆粕**: Oscillates weakly in the futures market, with relatively stable spot prices and a slightly narrowing spot discount. The oil mill's soybean processing volume has declined from a high level, and the August bean meal production increased year - on - year. Downstream procurement has slightly decreased, while提货量 remains high. The spread between bean meal and rapeseed meal fluctuates slightly [23][25][27]. - **大豆**: The cost of imported soybeans supports the domestic market, and the expected increase in domestic soybean demand is positive. However, Brazilian soybean production and expected domestic soybean yield growth are negative factors [11]. 3.2 Recent News - China - US tariff negotiations are at a stalemate, which is short - term negative for US soybeans. The US soybean market is oscillating above the 1000 - point mark, waiting for further guidance on harvest, imports, and trade negotiations. - China's imported soybean arrivals remain high in October. The oil mill's bean meal inventory has declined from a high level in October. The demand for bean meal has weakened in October due to reduced pig - farming profits, but the market is still oscillating due to trade uncertainties [13]. 3.3 Multi - Empty Concerns - **豆粕**: Positive factors include slow customs clearance of imported soybeans, low inventory pressure in domestic oil mills, and uncertain US soybean weather. Negative factors are high October arrivals of imported soybeans and expected US soybean harvest and high yields. The main focus is on US soybean harvest weather and China - US trade tariff games [14]. - **大豆**: Positive factors are the cost support of imported soybeans and expected increased domestic demand. Negative factors are Brazilian soybean production and expected domestic soybean yield growth. The main focus is on US soybean weather and China - US trade tariff games [15]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Global Soybean Supply - Demand Balance**: Data from 2015 - 2024 shows changes in harvest area, production, consumption, and inventory, with the inventory - consumption ratio fluctuating [32]. - **Domestic Soybean Supply - Demand Balance**: Data from 2015 - 2024 shows changes in harvest area, production, imports, consumption, and inventory, with the inventory - consumption ratio also fluctuating [33]. - **Soybean Planting and Harvest Progress**: Information on the planting and harvest progress of soybeans in the US, Brazil, and Argentina from 2023 - 2025 is provided, including percentages at different time points [34][35][38]. - **USDA Supply - Demand Reports**: Data from March - September 2025 shows changes in planting area, yield, production, end - of - period inventory, exports, and crushing volume of US soybeans, as well as Brazilian and Argentine soybean production [43]. 3.5 Position Data - **豆粕**: The main short positions have increased, and funds have flowed out, indicating a bearish sentiment [9]. - **大豆**: The main short positions have decreased, and funds have flowed in, but overall, the market has a bearish bias [11].