Core Viewpoint - Since February 2025, long-term bond yields have shown an overall upward trend, with significant differentiation in trading behaviors among various institutions in the bond market. Funds and state-owned banks have primarily acted as sellers, while rural commercial banks and insurance companies have shown notable buying behavior in the long end of the curve. The market is expected to remain volatile in the short term despite a potential easing of regulatory pressure on market sentiment [1][2][4]. Recent Market Pressure - The bond market has faced overall pressure since February 2025, with the central bank tightening liquidity support. This has led to a rise in long-term government bond yields, breaking the earlier oscillating pattern. The yield curve has shown a general increase across various maturities, with the 30Y-10Y spread narrowing by approximately 20 basis points [2][3]. Institutional Trading Behavior Changes - There has been a significant divergence in trading patterns among major institutions. Insurance companies and rural commercial banks have displayed a clear tendency to buy on dips, while funds have mainly sold policy bank bonds. State-owned banks have significantly sold off various maturities of government bonds, contrasting with their previous "buy short, sell long" strategy [3][4]. Future Market Adjustment Pressures - The 10-year government bond yield has returned to levels seen before the "moderately loose" monetary policy stance was proposed. The market is now focused on the upper limits of this adjustment, with three key factors to consider: the return of policy rate anchors, the potential for substantial interest rate hikes conflicting with the goal of reducing overall financing costs, and the need to monitor liquidity and risk factors closely [4][5].

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the mixed signals in economic data from the US, Eurozone, and Japan, indicating a resilient service sector in the US, while manufacturing shows signs of weakness. Employment data is also showing marginal deterioration, suggesting potential risks in the economic outlook [2][5][6]. Economic Data Review - US service sector remains strong with the S&P Services PMI at 51, exceeding expectations of 49.7, while ISM Manufacturing PMI is at 50.3, below the expected 50.5 [5][14]. - Eurozone manufacturing, inflation, and employment data exceeded expectations, with the manufacturing PMI at 47.6, CPI at 2.4%, and unemployment rate at 6.2% [6][15]. - Japan's unemployment rate rose to 2.5%, higher than expected, but the service sector PMI remains robust at 53.7 [6][15]. High-Frequency Data - US economic activity index declined to 2.24, while Germany's index increased to around 0.41 [7][17]. - US retail sales growth rebounded to 6.6% year-on-year [8][18]. - Mortgage rates in the US decreased to 6.63%, with mortgage applications rebounding by 14.1% [9][19]. - Initial jobless claims in the US increased to 221,000, while continuing claims rose to 1.897 million [10][21]. Financial Conditions - Financial conditions in the US and Eurozone are tightening, with the Bloomberg Financial Conditions Index for the US at 0.27 [11][23]. - The US high-yield corporate bond spread widened to 2.91 basis points [25]. - The US-Euro bond yield spread narrowed significantly by approximately 44.9 basis points to 134.5 basis points [12][27].

哪些信用债更加抗跌 ——信用策略周报 一、上周资金面仍然偏紧，长端信用债表现优于短端 证券研究报告 | 债券专题报告 2025 年 2 月 18 日 由于资金面偏紧、社融数据超预期等因素，上周信用债收益率跟随利率债整体上 行，短端高评级收益率上行幅度较大，信用债收益率曲线趋于平坦化。上周信用 利差大多被动收窄，中长久期中低评级信用债利差压缩幅度大于短久期，3 年期 及以上 AA+级及以下中短票信用利差收窄幅度为 4-8bp，1 年期各评级中短票利 差全周累计收窄 2-4bp。分品种来看，中长久期低评级以及超长久期城投债的信 用利差收窄幅度较大；短久期中高评级二永债利差走阔幅度较大。 2）金融债：上周除短久期外，其他期限二永债信用利差普遍被动收窄，3 年期 中低评级二永债利差收窄幅度较大，约为 4bp。短久期中高评级二永债利差走阔 幅度较大，1 年期 AA+级及以上二永债信用利差的走阔幅度为 2-5bp。此外 3-7 年期各评级券商次级债利差收窄幅度同样较大，为 4-8bp。 二、近期债市调整后，短久期信用债性价比有所提升 机构行为方面，上周基金、其他产品类（包含企业年金、社保基金、养老基金等）、 理财是信用债 ...