Core Viewpoint - The analysis provides insights into the price trends and key drivers for various precious metals, including gold, silver, platinum, and palladium, up to December 24, 2025, highlighting potential volatility and risks at high price levels [2]. Group 1: Short-term, Medium-term, and Long-term Outlook - **Gold**: Expected to experience high-level fluctuations with support between 4100–4200, followed by a potential upward movement. The medium-term outlook suggests a strong average price, supported by monetary attributes, while the long-term trend remains within a high price range [2]. - **Silver**: Anticipated to show significant volatility with support at 62–64, driven by industrial demand and financial attributes. The long-term outlook remains positive due to a balanced supply-demand scenario [2]. - **Platinum**: After an overbought condition, a pullback is expected with support at 1900–1950, followed by a potential rebound. The long-term outlook is strong, supported by a persistent supply gap and increasing demand from hydrogen and fuel cell applications [2]. - **Palladium**: Expected to experience a pullback after a corrective rise, with support at 1650–1700. The long-term outlook is weak due to declining gasoline vehicle demand and increased substitution, leading to reduced returns and stability [2]. Group 2: Key Conclusions and Recommendations - For **gold and silver**, the short-term outlook indicates high-level fluctuations, while the medium-term trend remains unchanged, suggesting a phased investment approach with risk management [2]. - For **platinum**, a strong medium-term trend is expected, with recommendations to wait for a pullback before entering positions [2]. - For **palladium**, the risk of a pullback is high after a corrective rise, with advice to reduce positions at high levels and adopt a wait-and-see approach [2]. Group 3: Trigger Signals and Operational Suggestions - Key reversal signals include the Federal Reserve pausing interest rate cuts or restarting hikes, a sustained strengthening of the US dollar index, significant easing of geopolitical risks, and a rapid narrowing of the spot market gap for platinum group metals [3]. - Operational advice includes setting stop-loss levels (gold at 4000, silver at 60, platinum at 1800, palladium at 1550), building positions gradually, and avoiding chasing high prices, with a long-term focus on gold and silver and swing trading for platinum and palladium [3].

A股三大指数下跌，截至午间收盘，沪指跌0.19%报3952.09点，深证成指涨0.17%，创业板指跌0.15%， 北证50涨0.08%。全市场成交额14648亿元，较上日成交额放量2529亿元，超3900股下跌。盘面上，海 南自贸港封关首周进口"零关税"享惠货物超4亿元，海南板块全线上涨；地缘局势叠加降息预期助推金 银创新高，黄金及其他有色金属板块走强；电池、锂矿、光伏设备板块涨幅居前。造纸、CPO、白酒板 块走低。 ...

期货市场交易指引 2025 年 12 月 26 日 | | 宏观金融 | | --- | --- | | ◆股指： | 中长期看好，逢低做多 | | ◆国债： | 震荡运行 | | | 黑色建材 | | ◆焦煤： | 短线交易 | | ◆螺纹钢： | 区间交易 | | ◆玻璃： | 止盈观望 | | | 有色金属 | | ◆铜： | 区间交易 | | ◆铝： | 建议加强观望 | | ◆镍： | 建议观望或逢高做空 | | ◆锡： | 区间交易 | | ◆黄金： | 区间交易 | | ◆白银： | 多单持有，新开单谨慎 | | ◆碳酸锂： | 偏强震荡 | | | 能源化工 | | ◆PVC： | 区间交易 | | ◆烧碱： | 暂时观望 | | ◆纯碱： | 暂时观望 | | ◆苯乙烯： | 区间交易 | | ◆橡胶： | 区间交易 | | ◆尿素： | 区间交易 | | ◆甲醇： | 区间交易 | | ◆聚烯烃： | 偏弱震荡 | | | 棉纺产业链 | | ◆棉花棉纱： | 震荡偏强 | | ◆苹果： | 震荡运行 | | ◆红枣： | 震荡运行 | | | 农业畜牧 | | ◆生猪： | 震荡筑底 | ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the report industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report On December 23, 2025, the main contract of Shanghai silver futures reached a new historical high, which was the result of the resonance of macro - easing expectations, the explosion of industrial demand, geopolitical risk - aversion sentiment, and the market short - squeeze logic. In the short term, Shanghai silver is likely to continue its strong and volatile pattern [9]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - **Contract Market**: On December 23, 2025, the main 2602 contract of Shanghai silver futures continued its strong upward trend, reaching a maximum of 16,573 yuan/kg during the session and closing at 16,441 yuan/kg, with a daily increase of 4.30%. The market was bullish [2]. - **Variety Market**: The trading volume of the main 2602 contract of Shanghai silver futures on that day was 1,230,157 lots, a decrease of about 27.8% compared with the previous trading day, indicating that funds were more cautious due to high - level fluctuations. The open interest remained relatively high at 340,510 lots, slightly decreasing from the previous day, showing that the long - position structure was still stable. The market showed the characteristic of "decreasing volume and rising price", reflecting intensified high - level gaming among funds and a dominant bullish sentiment [5]. - **Spot Market Data**: On December 23, 2025, domestic silver spot prices also reached new records. The prices of national standard No. 1, No. 2, and No. 3 silver were 16,340 yuan/kg, 16,325 yuan/kg, and 16,310 yuan/kg respectively, all rising by 320 yuan/kg compared with the previous day. The narrowing of the discount reflected the tight supply of spot silver and an increased expectation of physical delivery [6]. 3.2 Influencing Factors - **Macro - aspect**: The strengthening of interest - rate cut expectations and geopolitical risk - aversion led to a concentrated release of precious - metal buying. The US dollar index continued to weaken, and the RMB against the US dollar broke through 7.02. Tensions in the Middle East and the escalation of Ukraine's attacks on Russia's "shadow fleet" drove global risk - averse funds to flow into precious - metal assets [8]. - **Technical - aspect**: The daily MACD indicator of the Shanghai silver 2602 contract continued to run above the zero - axis, with the fast and slow lines in a long - position arrangement, indicating a stable upward trend. The daily KDJ indicator continued to give a bullish signal, and the RSI indicator rose but did not enter the overbought range, suggesting sufficient short - term upward momentum [8].

铜价新高，持续性如何展望 20251224 摘要 交易所价差驱动库存向美国转移，加剧非美地区现货紧张，叠加国内下 游补库需求，共同推动铜价上涨。关注库存转移对全球铜供应格局的影 响。 非农数据和失业率数据强化降息预期，美元指数下跌，美联储官员言论 进一步巩固市场对未来降息的预期，为金融市场提供利好。关注降息预 期对铜价的支撑作用。 预计 2026 年全球主要矿企新增铜产量仅 30-40 万吨，远低于 3%的需 求增速，供需缺口扩大。美国可能推迟进口关税，继续囤积铜，加剧全 球供应短缺。关注供需缺口变化。 美联储 2026 年预计两次降息，对金融市场形成支撑。美国增加铜作为 战略金属储备的需求，进一步收紧全球供应。关注战略金属储备政策。 多家海外冶炼厂因原料紧张和加工费低而减产或停产，预计 2026 年冶 炼端供应紧张加剧。关注冶炼厂减产停产对铜供应的影响。 2024 年前三季度全球主要矿企新增铜产量远低于预期，智利等地存量 矿下降、开采难度增加及地缘政治风险加剧供应不确定性。关注地缘政 治风险对铜矿供应的影响。 电力电网投资、新基建、AI 产业发展、国内稳内需政策、欧美老旧电网 改造以及新兴经济体基建投资均将 ...

美联储政策走向及内部分歧是美元走势核心变量。12月美联储完成年内第三次降息至3.5%-3.75%，但官 员立场对立：鹰派主张维持利率，鸽派呼吁放宽。CME数据显示，市场预期明年1月降息概率仅21%， 政策不确定性压制美元上涨。 圣诞假期临近导致外汇流动性下降，美元波动受情绪驱动。12月25日亚盘，美元连跌三日，跌破98.50 支撑位，确认弱势。截至12月25日美元报97.8691，微跌0.08%，维持低位震荡。 2025年12月25日，美元指数（DXY）盘中触及97.80，收于97.95，创10月3日以来两月新低。截至当 日，年内累计跌幅超9%，有望创下2017年以来最大年度跌幅、逼近八年最差纪录。美联储政策分歧、 降息预期升温、非美货币走强及美国经济隐忧等因素，令美元短期弱势难改，中长期波动加剧。 投行普遍认为政策不确定性将持续压制美元。专家指出，2025年累计降息75个基点后，2026年降息预期 收窄，美联储或"缓降息"，若经济或通胀好转，美元仍有反弹可能。 机构提醒，短期需关注美国GDP修正数据及消费者信心数据；中长期需跟踪美联储表态、主席提名、地 缘风险及"去美元化"进程，做好风险对冲。 美元指数是全 ...

Group 1 - The market is increasingly betting on a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve, with the probability rising to 89.2% according to CME data [2] - Major investment banks like Goldman Sachs and Bank of America have adjusted their expectations, citing a weak labor market as a driving factor for this "preemptive rate cut" [2] - Recent data shows that cryptocurrency investment products attracted $1.07 billion in inflows, reversing four consecutive weeks of outflows, with Bitcoin and Ethereum products being the main focus [2] Group 2 - The rate cut is expected to lower returns on cash and fixed-income assets, prompting a search for higher-yield investments, with cryptocurrency emerging as a key alternative [3] - Following the rate cut, institutional clients have increased their cryptocurrency allocations by 12%, with Bitcoin ETF inflows exceeding $5 billion [3] - The easing of monetary policy has boosted market risk appetite, with the dollar index declining and enhancing Bitcoin's appeal as "digital gold" [5] Group 3 - DeFi lending rates have dropped below 3%, leading to a 25% monthly increase in leveraged trading volume, and the total value locked in the crypto ecosystem is recovering from $86 billion [5] - Coinup.io offers various tools for investors, including a fund flow monitoring tool to track large capital movements in the crypto market [5] - The platform provides customized investment strategies for different risk profiles, including conservative and aggressive options [6] Group 4 - Coinup.io has established a multi-layered risk control system, including real-time risk alerts and strict asset custody measures to ensure fund security [6] - The platform also offers a specialized course on "cryptocurrency strategies during the rate cut cycle," providing comprehensive guidance for investors [6] - New users can receive a "newbie benefits package," which includes transaction fee reductions and staking yield enhancements [6] Group 5 - While the rate cut injects optimism into the crypto market, investors are advised to remain rational and avoid blindly chasing high prices [7] - A suggested investment strategy is to follow a logical sequence of "first the market, then the ecosystem, and finally the segments" [7] - Professional tools should be utilized to track capital movements and manage risks effectively in a market characterized by both opportunities and risks [8]

美国首次申请失业救济人数降至21.4万人 周三盘中，标普500指数最高上涨至6937.32点，创盘中历史新高。 纽约证券交易所于美国东部时间周三（圣诞前夜）下午1时提前收盘，并将于周四（圣诞节）休市。周五正常交易。 投资者继续期待备受追捧的"圣诞老人行情"（Santa Claus rally）——即年末股市上涨行情，它通常发生在一年最后五个交易日和新年头两个交易日之间； 此次这一时段从2025年12月24日开盘起至2026年1月5日止。 有报道称英伟达已叫停一项采用英特尔制程工艺生产高端芯片的测试。 当地时间12月24日（周三），美股三大指数收高，标普500指数创历史新高。美国上周初申请失业救济人数降至21.4万。 截至收盘，道指涨288.75点，涨幅为0.60%，报48731.16点；纳指涨51.47点，涨幅为0.22%，报23613.31点；标普500指数涨22.26点，涨幅为0.32%，报 6932.05点。 金融股多数上涨。花旗集团、摩根士丹利、高盛涨超1%，摩根大通、富国银行、纽约梅隆银行、美国合众银行、瑞银集团、嘉信理财、地区金融、巴克 莱、万事达、维萨、美国银行、旅行者保险、哈特福德保险、德意志 ...

12月24日美股提前3小时收盘，三大指数集体拉升收涨，均录得日线5连涨。 道指涨0.6%，标普500指数涨0.32%，纳指涨0.22%。其中，标普500指数、道指均创历史收盘新高。 | 道琼斯工业平均 | | | DJIA | 纳斯达克 | | IXIC | 标普500 | | | SPX | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 48731.16 | | | 288.75 0.60% | 23613.31 | | 51.46 0.22% | 6932.05 | | | 22.26 0.32% | | 48771.32 | Company Controller, J. Co. | | 0.68% | 23621.72 | rown | 0.25% | 6937.32 | mandy | | 0.40% | | 48606.87 | | | 034% | 23591.78 | | 0.13% | 6923.55 | | | 0.20% | | 48442.41 | | | 0.00% | 23561.84 | ...

UNforex 12月24 日讯（分析师Stephen）近期白银价格维持在高位区间震荡，XAG/USD没有出现大幅 回落。即便短线回调，多头依然稳住价格支撑，显示资金仍在积极布局。技术上，价格守住20日EMA 及关键均线，多头格局未被破坏，说明回调更多是市场节奏的正常调整，而非趋势性转向。 白银既是贵金属，也是重要工业金属。在经济增长尚未明显减速的背景下，工业需求为价格提供额外支 撑；同时，降息预期提升投资需求，使白银在高位仍具弹性。这种双重属性是近期价格稳健的重要原 因。 降息预期依然是多头的支撑核心 CME FedWatch数据显示，市场预计美联储在2026年将至少降息50个基点的概率超过70%。相比点阵图 中显示的官方预期，市场定价更偏宽松。对于白银这一非息资产来说，降息预期直接提升了配置价值， 是维持多头逻辑的核心因素。 短期震荡是健康整理 白银在高位出现的震荡整理，主要是对前期上涨进行消化，而非趋势反转。价格在回调后仍能获得支 撑，多头并未出现放弃趋势的信号。横向震荡为趋势提供呼吸空间，同时吸收市场浮动筹码。 工业和投资双重支撑增强弹性 GDP意外强劲，并未改变市场判断 美国第三季度GDP同比增长4 ...