期货市场交易指引 2026 年 02 月 06 日 | | 宏观金融 | | --- | --- | | ◆股指： | 中长期看好，逢低做多 | | ◆国债： | 震荡运行 | | | 黑色建材 | | ◆焦煤： | 短线交易 | | ◆螺纹钢： | 区间交易 | | ◆玻璃： | 逢低做多 | | | 有色金属 | | ◆铜： 观望 | | | ◆铝： | 建议加强观望 | | ◆镍： | 建议观望 | | ◆锡： | 区间交易 | | ◆黄金： | 区间交易 | | ◆白银： | 区间交易 | | ◆碳酸锂： | 区间震荡 | | | 能源化工 | | ◆PVC： | 区间交易 | | ◆烧碱： | 暂时观望 | | ◆纯碱： | 暂时观望 | | ◆苯乙烯： | 区间交易 | | ◆橡胶： | 区间交易 | | ◆尿素： | 区间交易 | | ◆甲醇： | 区间交易 | | ◆聚烯烃： | 偏弱震荡 | | | 棉纺产业链 | | ◆棉花棉纱： | 震荡调整 | | ◆苹果： | 震荡运行 | | ◆红枣： | 震荡运行 | | | 农业畜牧 | | ◆生猪： | 反弹滚动空机会 | | ◆鸡蛋： | ...

微信编辑 | 苏小 受降息预期升温、对通胀持续性的担忧以及财政赤字压力影响，美国10年期国债与2年期国债收益率 利差一度扩大至73.7个基点，接近2025年4月触及的73.8个基点高位，为2022年1月以来最高水平。 据央视新闻 当地时间2月5日获悉，美国国债收益率曲线升至近四年来最陡水平。 ...

UNforex 2月6日讯 美国最新公布的一组劳动力市场指标释放出清晰的放缓信号，成为触发全球资产重 新定价的重要催化因素。数据出炉后，市场风险偏好迅速收缩，资金加速回流至避险资产，美债遭遇集 中买盘，推动收益率录得数月以来最大单日跌幅。同时，交易层面对美联储年内政策节奏的判断明显前 移。在就业、通胀与政策立场相互交织的背景下，市场运行逻辑由此前的结构性博弈，逐步转向更强调 防守的去风险交易模式。 综合来看，劳动力市场降温已成为近期去风险交易的关键触发因素，美债收益率的快速下行反映出市场 正在重新评估政策路径。然而，在通胀仍高于目标、决策层立场保持谨慎的背景下，降息预期能否兑现 仍有赖于后续数据的进一步验证。在部分关键宏观数据因行政因素推迟公布的情况下，市场短期内可能 继续处于预期主导、波动放大的运行状态。风险资产与贵金属的调整进程尚未结束，而政策信号与数据 表现之间的错位，仍将是未来一段时间影响市场定价的重要不确定因素。 从具体指标看，美国企业裁员公告数量显著增加，初请失业金人数高于市场预期，而职位空缺水平持续 下探，反映出劳动力需求的系统性回落。JOLTS 报告显示，去年 12 月美国职位空缺降至 654 ...

美股频道更多独家策划、专家专栏，免费查阅>> 责任编辑：栎树 根据隔夜指数掉期显示，美联储将在6月前下调基准利率任期结束仅一个月后），并在今年总计进行两 到三次25个基点的降息。投资者正猜测，特朗普总统提名的美联储主席人选凯文·沃什尽管有着鹰派名 声，但仍会倾向于更低的利率。西太平洋银行金融市场策略主管Martin Whetton表示："尽管曲线出现了 相当程度的平行移动，但疲软的就业信息给前端收益率带来了更多的下行风险。但由于美国财政部借款 咨询委员会本周早些时候的评论暗示，供应增加的时间点可能早于预期的11月，曲线因此变得更加陡 峭。" 2月6日，由于降息以及对持续通胀和财政赤字的担忧，美国国债收益率曲线正处于四年多来的最陡峭水 平附近。10年期国债相对于2年期国债的额外收益率在周四扩大至高达73.7个基点，仅略低于4月份触及 的73.8个基点的峰值，而该峰值是2022年1月以来的最高水平。周四利差扩大，原因是美国就业市场疲 软的迹象促使交易员增加了对美联储今年放宽货币政策的押注。 ...

Group 1: Report's Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The short - term view of TL2603 is shock, the medium - term view is shock, and the intraday view is weak, with an overall view of shock consolidation due to the decreased possibility of short - term comprehensive interest rate cuts [1]. - For financial futures in the bond index sector including TL, T, TF, and TS, the intraday view is weak, the medium - term view is shock, and the overall view is shock consolidation. Although the latest macroeconomic indicators are weak, there is a need for a loose monetary and credit environment and the expectation of interest rate cuts still exists, and the demand for bond investment is boosted by risk - aversion. However, due to the structural interest rate cut in January and the slowdown of the Fed's interest rate cut expectation, the short - term possibility of the central bank's comprehensive interest rate cut is low, so the bond futures will mainly fluctuate in the short term [5]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Index Sector - For the variety TL2603, the short - term is shock, the medium - term is shock, the intraday is weak, and the view reference is shock consolidation. The core logic is that the short - term possibility of comprehensive interest rate cuts has decreased [1]. Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Index Sector - For varieties TL, T, TF, and TS, the intraday view is weak, the medium - term view is shock, and the reference view is shock consolidation. The core logic is that bond futures rebounded yesterday. The weakening of macroeconomic indicators implies concerns in the demand side, so there is still an expectation of interest rate cuts and strong support for bond futures. The intensified disturbance of the Fed's monetary policy expectation and the volatility of silver also boost the demand for bond investment. But due to the structural interest rate cut in January and the slowdown of the Fed's interest rate cut expectation, the short - term possibility of the central bank's comprehensive interest rate cut is low, and the upward momentum of bond futures is insufficient [5].

Core Viewpoint - The market is experiencing volatility in gold prices due to weak U.S. employment data and geopolitical tensions, with a notable decline in gold prices and increased market uncertainty [2][4]. Economic Data - U.S. December JOLTS job openings fell to 6.542 million, the lowest level since September 2020, below the expected 7.25 million and the previous value of 6.928 million [2][4]. - The European Central Bank (ECB) decided to maintain the deposit rate at 2%, marking the fifth consecutive pause in rate cuts since June of the previous year, as it continues to monitor inflation risks [2][4]. Market Reactions - Gold prices saw a significant decline, with London spot gold down 4%, COMEX gold futures down 3.08%, and SHFE gold down 1.48% [2][4]. - The market is reacting to fears of economic weakness, leading to a sell-off in gold stocks and a rebound in the U.S. dollar index [2][4]. Geopolitical Factors - Attention is focused on U.S.-Iran negotiations and the Japanese elections, with Iranian Foreign Minister Amir-Abdollahian traveling to Oman for nuclear talks with the U.S. [2][4]. - The volatility in the market is exacerbated by geopolitical uncertainties, making it difficult to predict market trends [2][4].

Core Viewpoint - The global financial markets are expected to show varied trends following recent adjustments, with U.S. stocks likely to maintain a volatile upward trajectory ahead of the midterm elections, supported by easing geopolitical tensions, improved economic expectations, and interest rate cut anticipations [1] Group 1: U.S. Stock Market - U.S. stocks are projected to experience a period of volatile growth before the midterm elections [1] - Factors supporting this trend include a reduction in geopolitical conflicts and a positive shift in economic forecasts [1] - Anticipation of interest rate cuts is also contributing to the expected upward movement in the stock market [1] Group 2: U.S. Treasury Bonds - U.S. Treasury bond yields are expected to decline in the short term due to a dovish stance from the Federal Reserve [1] - However, uncertainties related to fiscal policies, tariffs, and geopolitical factors may lead to an increase in term and inflation premiums [1] Group 3: Currency and Commodities - The U.S. dollar is anticipated to rise initially before experiencing a decline in the short term, while the Chinese yuan may exhibit narrow fluctuations [1] - Gold prices are expected to experience wide fluctuations in the short term but are likely to return to an upward trend within the year [1] - Oil prices may see short-term upward volatility influenced by U.S.-Iran relations [1] Group 4: Domestic Stock Market - The domestic stock market is expected to experience volatility before the Spring Festival, with a potential "spring rally" following the holiday [1]

Labor Market Conditions - The U.S. labor market is showing significant signs of weakness, with January layoffs reaching 108,435, a year-on-year increase of 117.8%, marking the highest level for January since the 2009 financial crisis [1][3] - The Challenger report indicates that the number of new job postings in January fell to 5,306, a decline of 13% year-on-year, representing the worst January data since records began in 2009 [1][3] Industry-Specific Layoffs - The transportation sector experienced the highest layoffs, totaling 31,243, primarily due to UPS announcing a layoff of 30,000 employees after ending its partnership with Amazon [3] - The technology sector followed with 22,291 layoffs, including 16,000 from Amazon as part of a management restructuring [3] - The healthcare sector saw 17,107 layoffs, the highest monthly figure since April 2020, driven by inflation, high labor costs, and reduced reimbursement rates [3] Economic Outlook and Policy Implications - The increase in layoffs and initial jobless claims, which rose to 231,000, significantly above the expected 212,000, has led to market speculation regarding potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [4] - The market's expectations for maintaining interest rates in March decreased from 90.1% to 84.2%, while the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut increased to 15.8% [4] - Internal divisions within the Federal Reserve are evident, with some members advocating for more aggressive rate cuts, while others express concerns about inflation and the need to maintain current rates [6]

英央行的预测摘要显示，通胀将在4月回到2%目标，随后在2027年的大部分时间长期跌破2%目标。 MPC会议纪要称，有"经济增长低迷以及劳动力市场闲置人数增加的证据"。纪要还补充称，通胀的上行 风险"已变得不那么明显"。 贝利与凯瑟琳.曼恩(Catherine Mann)——本月亦投票支持按兵不动的五名委员之一、也是外部MPC成员 ——均暗示他们距离转向降息阵营已很接近。会议纪要称，他们"更加重视较弱经济活动对通胀带来的 下行风险"。 英国央行在货币政策利率表决中仅以一票之差未选择降息，并预测通胀不久后将跌破其锚定目标;这一 比经济学家们普遍预期更为接近的决定重新点燃了市场对英国央行下个月采取降息行动的希望。英国央 行行长安德鲁.贝利(Andrew Bailey)再次成为关键摇摆票，在5比4的表决中决定将利率维持不变于 3.75%，选择在去年12月上次会议已降息后，本次按兵不动。贝利本人在一份声明中表示，"今年央行 基准利率仍应有进一步下调的空间。" 在更新后的经济预测摘要中，英国央行预计整体通胀率将在4月达到其长期锚定的2%这一目标区间内， 并警告经济增长放缓且失业率上升。 据了解，英国央行货币政策委员会(M ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - Today, treasury bond futures all rebounded in a volatile manner. The latest macroeconomic indicators have weakened, indicating potential concerns on the demand side. A relatively loose monetary and credit environment is needed in the future, and there are still expectations for interest rate cuts, providing strong support for treasury bond futures. Additionally, recent intensified disturbances in the expectations of the overseas Federal Reserve's monetary policy have led to sharp fluctuations in silver, boosting the investment demand for treasury bonds due to the risk - averse sentiment. However, the central bank implemented a structural interest rate cut in January, and the expectation of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut has slowed down. The possibility of a comprehensive interest rate cut by the central bank in the short term is low, and the upward momentum of treasury bond futures is insufficient. Overall, treasury bond futures will mainly be in a volatile consolidation in the short term [4] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Industry News and Related Charts - On February 5th, the People's Bank of China announced that it carried out 118.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations at a fixed - rate and quantity - tender method with an operation rate of 1.4%. At the same time, it carried out 300 billion yuan of 14 - day reverse repurchase operations at a fixed - quantity, interest - rate - tender, and multiple - price winning method. With 345 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase maturing today, the open market achieved a net injection of 64.5 billion yuan [6]