特朗普政府掀起的新一轮关税战引发了全球范围的关注。 不少人对此感到迷茫，美国发动贸易战的真实目的是什么？特朗普的关税政策能否实现其目标？面对这 场大国博弈，中国又该如何应对？ 带着这些问题，我们与中国人民大学经济学院王孝松教授进行了一场访谈，王教授长期关注中美贸易， 对此有深刻且系统的思考。 访谈中，王孝松剖析了特朗普关税政策背后的政治经济考量，解析了中美贸易巨额逆差的深层原因，并 就中国如何在逆全球化和民粹主义抬头的国际环境中寻求突围提出了自己的见解。 以下为访谈内容： 一、特朗普到底想要什么？ 孙允广：我们今天的主题还是围绕特朗普的关税措施。 目前看，这些措施搅得世界不宁，也给美国带来不少损失。美国国内和世界很多国家政界和学界都表示 反对。特朗普背后真实的目的到底是什么呢？ 王孝松：其实在他第一任期的时候，有一个意图其实就已经很明朗：用贸易战的方式打压中国，从战略 上遏制中国。 中国赖以增长和强大的一个重要基础就是出口，我们的出口在全世界非常有竞争力。到了他第二任期， 可以说进入了"2.0时代"，他的目标依然是打压中国，只不过这次他把贸易战从针对中国扩展到向全球 发难。 从这一次来看，我们会发现关税既是目 ...

导读： 2018-2024年中国质谱仪进口市场在贸易摩擦背景下不断变化。仪器信息网基于海关总署数据，深入剖析七年间质谱仪进口趋 势、国别进口数量及金额变化，揭示市场格局演变与未来机遇。 特别提示 微信公众号机制调整，请点击顶部"仪器信息网" → 右上方"…" → 设为 ★ 星标，否则很可能无法看到我们的推送。 根据中华人民共和国海关总署最新数据，中国质谱仪进口市场近年来呈现出明显的阶段性特征。 七年间，进口质谱仪数量在2 0 1 9年降到最低，为11 6 9 3台，而进口质谱仪金额在2 0 2 3年达到峰值，为1 8 . 9 8亿美元。根 据数据显示，2 0 1 8年进口质谱仪总量为1 2 , 4 2 4台，进口总额达1 4 . 4 3亿美元。随后市场走势可分为三个典型阶段： 第一阶段（2 0 1 8 - 2 0 2 0年）：量价波动，贸易战阴霾初现。 从图中明显得出， 2 0 1 9年进口数量及金额双双跌至七年间 最低点 ，随后在2 0 2 0年开始回升，并较2 0 1 8年有小幅增长，呈现出明显的"正V型"走势。尽管我们无法定论质谱仪进 口量及金额的下降是否只是由中美贸易战引起的，但贸易战无疑对质谱仪等高 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The report analyzes the market conditions of various commodities and financial products, including energy, metals, agricultural products, and financial derivatives, and provides corresponding investment suggestions based on supply - demand relationships, policy impacts, and market sentiment [1][2][3] - Trade wars and tariffs have a significant impact on the market, affecting the supply - demand balance and price trends of multiple commodities [13][19][28] - The market is also influenced by factors such as production capacity adjustments, inventory changes, and seasonal demand [4][10][23] Summary by Commodity Categories Energy - **Crude Oil**: OPEC +'s production cut compensation plan and US sanctions on Iran support price rebound, but the upside is limited due to potential trade - war impacts on demand. Consider buying options after volatility subsides [1] - **Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: US sanctions on Iran and low Russian fuel oil shipments tighten global heavy - oil supply. Summer demand in South Asia benefits fuel oil, and supply pressure eases for low - sulfur fuel oil, driving prices up [20] - **Asphalt**: Supply increases as a refinery resumes production and others switch from other products. Demand improvement takes time, and the price is under pressure after reaching a high [21] - **Liquefied Petroleum Gas**: External prices are stable, and domestic refinery price cuts are due to increased supply. PDH shutdowns reduce import demand, but crude oil stability may drive the futures up [22] Metals - **Precious Metals**: Gold's long - term upward trend is supported by economic concerns and dollar risks, but short - term volatility is high after a rapid rise [2] - **Base Metals**: - **Copper**: Domestic spot provides support, but the price is expected to face resistance in the 76,500 - 77,000 yuan range. Consider short - selling on rebounds [3] - **Aluminum**: Low supply growth and strong destocking, but the price is expected to oscillate below 20,000 yuan due to macro - risk uncertainties [4] - **Zinc**: LME inventory increase and weak consumer confidence. The price is under pressure and should be short - sold [6] - **Lead**: High LME inventory and weak consumer demand in the off - season. The price is in a stalemate, and it's advisable to wait and see [7] - **Nickel & Stainless Steel**: The price rebound is approaching an end. New short - selling opportunities may emerge [8] - **Tin**: The price is expected to rebound, but short - sell against the MA60 daily line [9] - **Carbonate Lithium**: The price is in a downward channel, and short - selling on rebounds is recommended [10] - **Polysilicon**: The price is expected to continue weakening in the short term due to policy and supply factors [11] - **Industrial Silicon**: The market is cautious. Demand is mixed, and the market trend may not change without large - scale production cuts [12] - **Iron Ore**: Supply is expected to increase seasonally, and demand has some resilience. The price may have a small - scale rebound and will mainly oscillate [14] - **Coke & Coking Coal**: Prices follow steel trends. Coke inventory is high, and coking coal supply is abundant. Prices are likely to be weak in the short term [15][16] - **Silicon Manganese & Silicon Ferrosilicon**: Prices follow steel. Supply and demand factors suggest short - selling on rebounds [17][18] Chemicals - **Methanol**: Domestic production declines slightly, and inventory is low in the near term, supporting the price. However, supply is expected to increase significantly later [24] - **Styrene**: Supply is supported by maintenance, but cost and demand are weak, putting pressure on the price [25] - **Polypropylene & Plastic**: Crude oil rise boosts costs, but polyethylene demand is weak, and polypropylene lacks price support [26] - **PVC & Caustic Soda**: PVC may oscillate at a low level due to supply, demand, and cost factors. Caustic soda shows strength, but it's advisable to wait and see [27] - **PX & PTA**: The polyester industry chain is affected by tariffs. PTA's production cut has limited positive effects [28] Agricultural Products - **Soybeans & Related Products**: Brazilian soybean arrivals in the second quarter may pressure the basis of soybean meal. Mid - term, the futures may be more resilient due to tariffs and the US planting season [34] - **Corn**: Supply increases at Shandong deep - processing enterprises, and inventory is high. The price is likely to decline further [38] - **Livestock & Poultry Products**: - **Pigs**: High expected supply in September may limit the upward space of the futures price [39] - **Eggs**: The in - production inventory and chick - replenishment volume are rising, and the long - term price trend is bearish [40] - **Cotton**: US cotton sales data is good, but domestic cotton may be weak due to tariff impacts. It's advisable to wait and see [41] - **Sugar**: Uncertainty in Brazilian sugar production and domestic supply - demand changes. The price is expected to oscillate [42] - **Apples**: Cold - wave impacts are estimated to be small. Spot sales are good, and the price may rise. The market focuses on new - season production [43] - **Wood & Pulp**: - **Wood**: High expected arrivals in April and weak demand. The price is likely to be weak [44] - **Pulp**: High port inventory and general demand. The price is affected by the macro - environment [45] Financial Derivatives - **Stock Index Futures**: A - shares may oscillate and accumulate momentum. Focus on the timing of domestic policy implementation [46] - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The market is in a wide - range oscillation. Consider a steepening strategy for multi - variety hedging [47] - **Container Shipping Index (European Line)**: The short - term futures may oscillate. Potential drivers include ship transfers and US tariff policies [19]

首席点评：金银回调，油价续涨 报告日期： 2025 年 4 月 18 日 申银万国期货研究所 李强指出，在政策制定实施和政府工作的方方面面，都要有稳预期的意识，特别要结合形势变化，提高 政策针对性、有效性。要讲究政策时机，在一些关键的时间窗口，推动各方面政策措施早出手、快出 手，对预期形成积极影响。欧洲央行如期下调利率 25 个基点，为自去年 6 月以来第七次下调利率。欧 央行行长拉加德表示，经济前景笼罩在极大的不确定性中，经济下行风险有所增加。美国 3 月新屋开工 数下降 11.4% ，创一年来最大降幅，高房价和抵押贷款利率高企导致需求疲软，使得建筑商对破土动 工缺乏信心。美国能源部备忘录报道称，特朗普政府考虑砍掉将近 100 亿美元清洁能源资金，可能会在 氢能源、碳捕捉、 ETC 领域削减（政府）资金支持。 重点品种： 玻璃、原油、 贵金属 玻璃 ：周四，玻璃期货延续弱势，市场情绪仍有分歧，商品普遍受到关税冲击导致的对于内需消费的 观望情绪主导。玻璃自身目前库存缓慢去化，市场亦步亦趋。中期角度，目前经过 2 个月的玻璃累库， 等待开工后采购需求推动消化玻璃存量库存。本周玻璃生产企业库存 5624 万重箱， ...

Report Information - Report Title: Crude Oil Daily [1] - Date: April 18, 2025 [2] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - In the context of the trade war, the market has a pessimistic outlook on crude oil demand, and it is difficult for oil prices to have room for a trending increase. Oil prices are highly susceptible to significant fluctuations from news. Consider buying call options and setting timely profit - taking. The SC crude oil futures are relatively strong due to sanctions [7] Section Summaries 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Review**: WTI's opening price was $60.96, closing at $61.94, with a high of $62.31, a low of $59.87, a gain of 1.96%, and a trading volume of 26.78 million lots. Brent's opening price was $64.03, closing at $65.04, with a high of $65.43, a low of $63, a gain of 1.82%, and a trading volume of 27.79 million lots. SC's opening price was 476.2 yuan/barrel, closing at 482.7 yuan/barrel, with a high of 487.8 yuan/barrel, a low of 473.9 yuan/barrel, a gain of 2.31%, and a trading volume of 14.99 million lots [6] - **News Impact**: On the evening of April 16, the US Treasury announced new sanctions on Iran's energy sector, affecting a refinery in Shandong. During the Iran - nuclear deal negotiations, the US continued to pressure Iran, and Iran's attitude was tough, with a low probability of reaching an agreement. OPEC received an updated compensatory production cut plan on April 16, reducing supply after May and an average of 72,000 barrels per day by the end of 2025. After the update, the new supply in May decreased to 33,000 barrels per day [6] - **Operation Suggestions**: Buy call options and set timely profit - taking [7] 2. Industry News - OPEC received updated compensatory production cut plans from eight countries, reducing oil production by 305,000 barrels per day until June 2026 [8] - Iraq plans to cut crude oil exports by 70,000 barrels per day in April [8] - Fitch lowered its 2025 Brent crude oil price forecast by $5 to $65 per barrel and maintained its natural gas price forecast [8] - The US Treasury announced new sanctions targeting Iranian oil tankers, and the US Treasury Secretary said the US is ready to reduce Iran's energy exports to zero [8] 3. Data Overview - Multiple data charts are provided, including global high - frequency crude oil inventories, WTI and Brent fund positions, various spot prices, US crude oil production growth rate, and EIA crude oil inventories [10][11][21]

鲍威尔警告称，该央行在迅速缓冲总统特朗普的贸易战带来的经济影响方面可能没有那么灵活，这一言 论导致股市周三下跌。 鲍威尔重申，美联储不急于降息，"最好等待形势更加清晰之后，再考虑调整政策立场"。他也承认，由 于特朗普关税政策可能推高美国通胀并减缓经济增长，美联储可能会面临稳定物价和就业最大化这两项 政策目标相互冲突的艰难处境。在关税争端、降息预期和央行强劲买盘的支撑下，金价今年已上涨近 700美元，涨幅接近28%，超过2024年的27%涨幅。 FXTM富拓高级研究分析师Lukman Otunuga表示："美元普遍走软、关税公告的不确定性以及对全球经 济衰退的担忧，仍在大力支撑金价。超过3300美元，这是金价的心理水平。多头的目标可能是3400美 元、3500美元，甚至更高。然而，一轮获利回吐或积极的中美贸易发展可能引发抛售。" 由于鲍威尔关于贸易战影响的警告加剧市场波动，导致美股和美元大幅下跌，黄金价格再创新高。周四 (4月17日)现货黄金一度上涨0.4%，达到3,357.78美元，周三上涨3.5%创下自2023年3月以来的最大单日 涨幅。美元则跌至六个月新低，交易员再度被接连不断的关税新闻搅乱，而鲍威尔打压 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The precious metals market continued to strengthen on Wednesday. Gold is recommended to hold long positions, and silver short positions should be appropriately reduced or the gold - silver ratio should be long. The base metals market shows different trends, with copper expected to be volatile and strong, aluminum to be volatile in the short - term and potentially stabilize, and alumina to maintain a volatile run. [2] - In the agricultural products market, domestic soybean meal is expected to be volatile and bullish, corn futures prices are expected to be volatile and strong, palm oil is temporarily weak, domestic sugar is easy to rise in the short - term but has limited upside in the long - term, cotton can stop profit on short positions or wait and see, and eggs and logs have different price trends and trading strategies. [3][4] - In the energy and chemical market, LLDPE, PVC, PTA, rubber, glass, PP, MEG, styrene, soda ash, and caustic soda all have their own supply - demand situations and trading strategies, mainly including short - term volatility, long - term supply - demand changes, and attention to factors such as tariffs and device maintenance. [5][6][7] - In the shipping market, the overall outlook for shipping rates is pessimistic under the trade war. The Southeast Asian routes will have a supply - demand mismatch in the short - term, and the European routes will show a pessimistic outlook. [8] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Precious Metals - **Market Performance**: The precious metals market continued to strengthen on Wednesday. [2] - **News**: Powell reiterated the Fed's wait - and - see approach, warning of the dilemma between inflation and the economy and denying a bailout. There were disputes over tariff policies, and economic data such as China's Q1 GDP growth of 5.4%, Canada maintaining its interest rate at 2.75%, and a 1.4% increase in US March retail sales were released. [2] - **Inventory Data**: Indian silver imports in February decreased to about 250 tons, SHFE silver inventory increased by 9 tons to 961 tons, and SGE silver inventory decreased by 23 tons to 1745 tons last week. London's inventory in March decreased by 335 tons to 22124 tons. [2] - **Trading Strategy**: Hold long positions in gold and appropriately reduce short positions in silver or long the gold - silver ratio. [2] Base Metals Copper - **Market Performance**: Copper prices fluctuated yesterday. [2] - **Fundamentals**: Affected by the Sino - US trade war, copper prices weakened during the day session. At night, the decline in US stocks and the US dollar supported metal prices, and the strengthening of precious metals also supported copper prices. The spot premium of flat - copper in East and South China was 80 yuan and 60 yuan respectively. [2] - **Trading Strategy**: Treat it with a volatile and strong mindset. [2] Aluminum - **Market Performance**: The closing price of the electrolytic aluminum 2506 contract decreased by 0.64% compared with the previous trading day, closing at 19545 yuan/ton. [2] - **Fundamentals**: On the supply side, electrolytic aluminum plants maintained high - load production with a slight increase in operating capacity. On the demand side, the operating rate of aluminum products decreased slightly. [2] - **Trading Strategy**: The uncertainty of US tariff policies is the main driver of aluminum price fluctuations. Aluminum prices may continue to fluctuate and adjust in the short - term but may stabilize if tariff policies ease. It is recommended to wait and see. [2] Alumina - **Market Performance**: The closing price of the alumina 2505 contract increased by 1.04% compared with the previous trading day, closing at 2815 yuan/ton. [2] - **Fundamentals**: On the supply side, alumina maintenance, production cuts, and active production reduction were concentrated, with a significant decline in operating capacity. On the demand side, electrolytic aluminum plants maintained high - load production with a slight increase in operating capacity. [2] - **Trading Strategy**: The uncertainty of ore supply has increased, and the spot price has stopped falling. Alumina prices are expected to maintain a volatile run in the short - term. It is recommended to wait and see. [2] Agricultural Products Soybean Meal - **Market Performance**: CBOT soybeans rose slightly overnight. [3] - **Fundamentals**: On the supply side, South America has a bumper harvest in the near - term, and the US may reduce soybean planting area in the long - term. On the demand side, Brazil dominates in the short - term, and US soybean demand is seasonally weak. [3] - **Trading Strategy**: US soybeans are expected to be volatile, and domestic soybean meal is expected to be volatile and bullish, showing a backwardation pattern. Pay attention to trade policies and US soybean planting area changes in the medium - term. [3] Corn - **Market Performance**: The corn 2505 contract fluctuated narrowly, and the spot price rose slightly. [3] - **Fundamentals**: The grain sales progress is over 90%, much faster than in previous years. The expected decrease in substitute imports and the increase in demand have improved the supply - demand situation. The reduction in remaining grain and the addition of tariffs are beneficial to domestic corn consumption. [3] - **Trading Strategy**: With the reduction of remaining grain, the futures price is expected to be volatile and strong. [3] Palm Oil - **Market Performance**: Malaysian palm oil prices fell in the short - term, trading on the expectation of increased production. [3] - **Fundamentals**: On the supply side, there is seasonal production increase in the producing areas, with a 17% month - on - month increase in March production. On the demand side, exports from the producing areas improved month - on - month, with a 17% increase in Malaysian palm oil exports from April 1 - 15. [3] - **Trading Strategy**: Palm oil is temporarily weak, and there are differences among varieties. Pay attention to production in the producing areas and biodiesel policies in the medium - term. [3] Sugar - **Market Performance**: The Zhengzhou sugar 09 contract closed at 5913 yuan/ton, up 0.65%. [3] - **Fundamentals**: International raw sugar prices have broken through the support level, while domestic sugar is easy to rise. The import of processed sugar is expected to increase after the third quarter. There are differences in the market's expectations for the new domestic sugar production. [3] - **Trading Strategy**: Short the 09 contract unilaterally. [3] Cotton - **Market Performance**: US cotton prices rose overnight, and Zhengzhou cotton prices continued to fluctuate. [3] - **Fundamentals**: The US cotton sowing progress is slow, and domestic downstream procurement has slowed down. The cotton textile PMI in March increased significantly, but orders are expected to decline. [3] - **Trading Strategy**: Stop profit on short positions or wait and see. [3] Logs - **Market Performance**: The log 07 contract closed at 825.5 yuan/cubic meter, down 0.36%. [3] - **Fundamentals**: The ban on US log imports has been reflected in the market. The current inventory out - flow has increased, but the arrival volume is still high. Housing construction demand has increased slightly, supporting the price bottom. [3] - **Trading Strategy**: Wait and see. [3] Eggs - **Market Performance**: The egg 2505 contract rose, and the spot price was stable. [4] - **Fundamentals**: The new production capacity is limited in the later period, and the supply will gradually decline as old chickens are continuously culled. With the approaching of the May Day holiday, demand will improve, and inventory is at a low level. [4] - **Trading Strategy**: The futures price is expected to be volatile and strong. [4] Pigs - **Market Performance**: The pig 2505 contract fluctuated narrowly, and the spot price fell. [4] - **Fundamentals**: The slaughter volume in April is expected to increase by 3.67%. The narrowing of the standard - fat price difference reduces the willingness to hold pigs for fattening. Secondary fattening will support the pig price, but overall, the pig price may decline resistantly. [4] - **Trading Strategy**: Secondary fattening is cooling down, and the price is expected to be volatile and weak. [4] Energy and Chemicals LLDPE - **Market Performance**: The LLDPE main contract fell slightly yesterday. [5] - **Fundamentals**: On the supply side, new devices are being put into operation, and spring maintenance is ending, increasing supply. The import window is closed, and imports are expected to decrease. On the demand side, the peak season for agricultural films is ending, and exports of plastic products are expected to decline. [5] - **Trading Strategy**: In the short - term, it is mainly volatile and weak, and it is recommended to short on rallies. In the long - term, supply and demand will gradually ease, and it is recommended to short the far - month contracts on rallies. [5] PVC - **Market Performance**: The PVC V09 contract closed at 5041, down 0.38%. [5] - **Fundamentals**: Supply and demand are both weak, and the price is stable. Spring maintenance is coming, and the supply is expected to decrease. The inventory has declined from a high level. [5] - **Trading Strategy**: It is recommended to hedge after the price recovers to a high premium. [5] PTA - **Market Performance**: The PX CFR China price is 738 US dollars/ton, and the PTA East China spot price is 4329 yuan/ton. [6] - **Fundamentals**: On the supply side, PX and PTA supply has decreased in April, and polyester load is high, but downstream load has decreased. Pay attention to export orders after the tariff suspension. [6] - **Trading Strategy**: Pay attention to the long - short spread opportunity if there is a short - term rush to export. [6] Rubber - **Market Performance**: The RU2509 contract fell 1.98%, closing at 14635 yuan/ton. [6] - **Fundamentals**: Raw material output is limited, and the purchase price is relatively firm. The capacity utilization rate of tire enterprises has decreased, and the social inventory has increased. [6] - **Trading Strategy**: Wait and see or trade in the range, and pay attention to the support level at 14000 yuan/ton. [6] Glass - **Market Performance**: The FG09 contract closed at 1179, down 0.4%. [6] - **Fundamentals**: Supply and demand are both weak, and the inventory is stable. The price of glass fuel has increased due to US tariffs. There are both positive policy expectations and weak actual demand. [6] - **Trading Strategy**: It is expected to continue to fluctuate within the range. [6] PP - **Market Performance**: The PP main contract fell slightly yesterday. [6] - **Fundamentals**: On the supply side, short - term maintenance is ending, and new devices are starting up. The export window is open, and pay attention to the impact of tariffs on PDH devices. On the demand side, downstream production plans vary, and pay attention to the impact of tariff suspension on exports. [6] - **Trading Strategy**: In the short - term, it is mainly volatile. Pay attention to the impact on PDH device operation and new device commissioning. [6] MEG - **Market Performance**: The MEG East China spot price is 4329 yuan/ton. [6] - **Fundamentals**: On the supply side, domestic and overseas device maintenance will reduce supply, and the inventory has decreased. Polyester load is high, but downstream load has decreased. Pay attention to export orders after the tariff suspension. [6] - **Trading Strategy**: It is expected to be strong in the short - term but has limited upside in the long - term. [7] Styrene - **Market Performance**: The main contract fell slightly yesterday. [7] - **Fundamentals**: On the supply side, pure benzene inventory is high, and styrene inventory is normal and expected to decrease slightly. On the demand side, downstream profits are improving, but exports are affected by tariffs. Pay attention to the impact of tariff suspension on exports. [7] - **Trading Strategy**: It is expected to fluctuate with the cost (pure benzene) and long the month - spread. [7] Soda Ash - **Market Performance**: The SA05 contract closed flat at 1359. [7] - **Fundamentals**: The operating rate is 90%, and the inventory is high and stable. Downstream photovoltaic glass is being put into production. The supply - demand is healthy, but there is no obvious driving force. [7] - **Trading Strategy**: Wait and see. [7] Caustic Soda - **Market Performance**: The caustic soda sh09 contract closed flat. [7] - **Fundamentals**: The operating rate has slightly declined, and the inventory has decreased slightly. Non - aluminum downstream demand is weak. The price is pressured by the decline in the alumina industry chain. [7] - **Trading Strategy**: It is expected to continue to decline, and pay attention to the support level at 2200. [7] Shipping European Container Shipping - **Market Performance**: The main contract fell 6.21% yesterday. [8] - **Fundamentals**: The US exemption of high tariffs on semiconductor imports will slightly increase US - bound trade volume, but overall Sino - US trade volume will still be much lower than before the trade war. Exports are turning to re - export and domestic sales. The supply side is affected by tariff policies, and the demand side shows different trends in different regions. [8] - **Trading Strategy**: The overall shipping rate outlook is pessimistic under the trade war. Short the 10 - month contract on rallies. [8]

报告日期： 2025 年 4 月 17 日 申银万国期货研究所 首席点评：商品涨跌互现，金价再创新高 国家统计局公布数据，一季度国内生产总值同比增长 5.4% ，环比增长 1.2% 。 3 月规模以上工业增加 值同比实际增长 7.7% ，装备制造业和高技术制造业较快增长，新能源汽车继续保持高速增长态势。由 于汽车购买量大幅增加，美国 3 月零售销售环比增长 1.4% ，增幅创两年多来最大，表明消费者正赶在 惩罚性汽车关税之前购买汽车。但随着特朗普推进关税，一些通胀预期指标飙升，削弱了美国人对自己 财务状况的看法，低收入消费者已面临困境，而较富裕的消费者则受到股市抛售打击，这给支出前景蒙 上了阴影。现货黄金史上首次站上 3300 美元 / 盎司，日内暴涨 70 美元，涨幅超 2% 。受金价大幅波动 影响，部分投资者选择囤货待涨。 重点品种： 橡胶、原油、 贵金属 橡胶 ：周三橡胶走势回落，国内产区气候较好，产区逐步开割，泰国减产季即将结束。青岛地区总库 存持续增加，库存周期转变较为明显，美关税政策影响短期反复，预计仍将延续，关税政策本质上对原 料端不利，中长期终端消费的变化路径仍存在不确定性，消费端分析逻辑可能 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - The market's risk sentiment initially recovered due to the Trump administration's slight loosening in electronics - related tariff policies, but turned pessimistic as the latest US - EU trade negotiations stalled, pushing gold to a new all - time high. In the short to medium term, the impact of the trade war remains highly uncertain, and major - power games will continue to fluctuate. Gold, with its good hedging properties, is likely to rise easily and fall hard, and silver may also be supported by gold and show a strong - side oscillation [8]. Summary by Directory Market Review - In the precious metals market, London gold broke through the $3300 mark, reaching a record high of $3317.89 and then falling back to around $3295. London silver also rose and is trading around $32.9. Affected by the overseas market, the main contract of Shanghai gold futures closed up 2.68% at 781.6 yuan/gram, and the main contract of Shanghai silver futures closed up 1.5% at 8233 yuan/kilogram [3]. - The US dollar index fluctuated at a low level, trading around 99.6 [4]. - The 10 - year US Treasury yield fluctuated narrowly, trading around 4.31% [5]. - The RMB exchange rate against the US dollar opened lower and then rose slightly, trading around 7.316 [5]. Important Information - Tariff policy trends: Trump said on the 15th that the suspension of tariffs was for a transition period and flexibility, and would accelerate the issuance of all necessary licenses to NVIDIA. The EU and the US have made little progress in bridging trade differences, and most US tariffs on the EU will continue. Canada will suspend tariffs on some US goods for 6 months and conditionally exempt some counter - measures against imported US cars. Mexico has strengthened inspections, and fuel imports from the Texas border in the US have stalled [6]. - Fed watch: The probability that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged in May is 81.4%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut is 18.6%. By June, the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is 27.6%, and the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point rate cut is 60.1%. The market bets that the Fed will cut rates once each in June, July, September, and December this year [6]. Logical Analysis - The market's risk sentiment changed from recovery to pessimism due to the situation of trade negotiations, which led to gold hitting a new high. Gold is expected to be easy to rise and hard to fall in the short - to - medium term, and silver may be supported by gold [8]. Trading Strategies - For unilateral trading, hold long positions based on the 5 - day moving average [8]. - For arbitrage, stay on the sidelines [9]. - For options, use the collar call option strategy [10]. Data Reference - The report provides multiple sets of data charts, including the relationship between the US dollar index and precious metals prices, the relationship between real yields and precious metals prices, the relationship between domestic and foreign futures prices, the relationship between futures and spot prices, the gold - to - silver ratio, ETF holdings, futures trading volume, futures inventory, trading volume, TD data, and the relationship between Treasury yields and break - even inflation rates [15][16][17]

以下文章来源于财联社 ，作者牛占林 财联社 . 财联社是上海报业集团主管主办，定位资本市场报道财经通讯社，以"准确、快速、权威、专业"为准则，提供7x24小时金融信息服务。 来源|财联社 4月15日在美国政府发动全面贸易战之后，全球金融市场风雨飘摇，但未曾想到的是，俄罗斯卢布成为了今年全球表现最佳的货币，涨幅甚至远远超 过了黄金这一传统避险资产。 数据显示，今年迄今，俄罗斯卢布兑美元在场外交易中上涨了38%。美元因美国总统特朗普不断升级的关税战而面临巨大压力，卢布却因许多俄罗斯 独有的因素而受到支撑，其中包括创纪录的高利率。 当然，美国对俄罗斯政策的缓和迹象重新激发了卢布在套利交易中的吸引力。Istar资本研究与投资组合管理主管Iskander Lutsko表示，尽管制裁风 险仍然存在，外国投资者仍在转向那些与俄罗斯保持良好关系的国家，以获取高收益的卢布资产。 Lutsko补充说，除此之外，俄罗斯企业渴望利用成本低得多的人民币贷款，为成本高昂的本币债务进行再融资，这推动了更多的外币兑换成卢布。 与此同时，美元指数跌至六个月低点，因为特朗普在关税政策上的最新反复无常，加剧了投资者对美国资产的不安情绪，并削弱了美 ...