2025年06月05日 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 商 品 研 究 2025 年 6 月 5 日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-能源化工 观点与策略 | 对二甲苯：估值高位，反套 | 2 | | --- | --- | | PTA：供增需减，反套 | 2 | | MEG：多PTA空MEG逢高离场 | 2 | | 橡胶：震荡运行 | 4 | | 合成橡胶：短期震荡承压 | 6 | | 沥青：震荡延续 | 8 | | LLDPE：短期不追空，后期仍有压力 | 10 | | PP：价格小跌，成交一般 | 12 | | 烧碱：强现实弱预期，关注成本变动 | 13 | | 纸浆：震荡运行 | 15 | | 玻璃：原片价格平稳 | 17 | | 甲醇：短期低位反弹 | 18 | | 尿素：震荡承压 | 20 | | 苯乙烯：短期震荡 | 22 | | 纯碱：现货市场变化不大 | 23 | | LPG：短期震荡运行 | 24 | | PVC：短期不追空，趋势仍有压力 | 27 | | 燃料油：弱势延续，短期将进入调整走势 | 29 | | 低硫燃料油：小幅 ...

早盘开盘，国内期货主力合约涨跌不一，集运欧线、焦煤涨近2%，沪锡涨超1%。跌幅方面，PTA、瓶 片、烧碱、SC原油、PX跌超1%。 ...

Group 1 - The Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange announced adjustments to the hedging position limits for various products, including an increase in the combined limits for hedging and speculative positions for 14 products, including PTA [1] - Reports indicated that Mongolia's coal resource tax might be raised to 20%, but the Mongolian Tax Authority confirmed that no official decision regarding changes to coal resource taxes or export taxes has been made [1] - In Tangshan, some steel mills plan to reduce the prices of various types of coke by 50 to 75 yuan per ton, effective from June 6, 2025 [1] - National building materials inventory decreased by 2.63% to 5.5047 million tons, while factory inventory fell by 0.92% to 3.2615 million tons, and production dropped by 0.90% to 4.2193 million tons [1] Group 2 - The Brazilian National Grain Exporters Association (Anec) estimates that soybean exports in June will be 12.55 million tons, down from 13.83 million tons in the same month last year, and lower than May's 14.20 million tons [2] - A foreign media survey predicts that U.S. net soybean export sales for the 2024/25 marketing year will range between 100,000 to 500,000 tons, while for the 2025/26 marketing year, it will be between 0 to 100,000 tons [2] - A Reuters survey forecasts that Malaysia's palm oil inventory for May 2025 will be 2.01 million tons, a 7.74% increase from April, with production expected to rise by 3% to 1.74 million tons and exports by 17.9% to 1.30 million tons [2] - A commodity research institution reported that Indonesia's palm oil production for the 2024/2025 fiscal year is expected to be 48.8 million tons, while Malaysia's is projected at 19 million tons, both remaining unchanged from previous estimates [2] Group 3 - A large lead recycling plant in East China has resumed production, but output remains unstable due to ongoing environmental inspections [3] - A zinc smelting plant in South China is undergoing maintenance for 10 to 15 days, which is expected to impact around 2,000 tons of production [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The sharp rise in coking coal futures on June 4, 2025, was triggered by rumors of Mongolia imposing a resource tax on coal exports and a technical rebound after 18 months of continuous decline. However, the sustainability of the upward trend is doubtful due to oversupply and weak demand [3][4]. - For stock index futures, with the thawing of the China - EU Comprehensive Investment Agreement, it may further stimulate negotiations between the US and China. The recommended operation strategy is high - selling and low - buying [7][8]. - Gold is in a short - term oscillatory pattern. It is advisable to go long but not chase the rise, and instead buy on dips [11][12]. - Iron ore has a risk of overvaluation due to the weak reality of seasonal decline in molten iron production and the ongoing quarterly end shipment rush by mines. However, the continuous decline in port inventory supports the market, and it is a strong variety in the black series. The outlook is oscillatory and bullish [15][16]. - Glass is expected to see a significant change only after the effects of real - estate stimulus policies are evident or major policies are introduced. Technically, it shows strong signs of a rebound from an oversold position, and the outlook is oscillatory and bullish [18][19]. - Urea is expected to continue its weak adjustment in the short term due to slow progress in agricultural demand and limited follow - up from downstream players, despite a relatively high daily output and operating rate [20]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Coking Coal Futures - **Reasons for the sharp rise**: Rumors of Mongolia's coal export tax increase and a technical rebound after 18 months of decline. On June 3, the position increased by 29,000 lots, and short - covering boosted the upward trend [3]. - **Sustainability of the rise**: Doubtful, as there is an oversupply (domestic coal mine output increased by 16 - 20% year - on - year, Mongolian imports reached a record high with 1,200 vehicles per day, and port inventory was 3.594 million tons) and weak demand (decline in steel mill molten iron production, coking enterprises' losses of 39 yuan per ton of coke) [4]. Stock Index Futures - **Market situation**: A - share indexes continued to close higher, with the CSI 1000 index performing well. The thawing of the China - EU Comprehensive Investment Agreement may further stimulate US - China negotiations [8]. - **Operation strategy**: High - selling and low - buying [7]. Gold - **Market situation**: After the holiday, the overseas market hit a new high, and Shanghai gold opened sharply higher and then adjusted. It is currently in an oscillatory pattern [12]. - **Operation strategy**: Go long but not chase the rise, and buy on dips [11]. Iron Ore - **Market situation**: The end - of - quarter shipment rush by mines is ongoing, and molten iron production is seasonally weak, increasing the risk of overvaluation. However, the continuous decline in port inventory supports the market [16]. - **Outlook**: Oscillatory and bullish [15]. Glass - **Market situation**: There has been no major cold - repair situation due to losses on the supply side, factory inventories are high, and downstream deep - processing orders have weak restocking power [19]. - **Outlook**: Oscillatory and bullish, awaiting the effects of real - estate stimulus policies or major policy introductions [18]. Urea - **Supply situation**: The domestic daily output is about 205,600 tons, and the operating rate is about 87.23% [20]. - **Demand situation**: Agricultural demand progress is slow, and downstream follow - up is limited [20]. - **Price outlook**: Weak adjustment in the short term [20].

期货热点追踪 相关链接 蒙古国煤炭政策传闻引发市场动荡，焦煤期货暴涨，盘中临近涨停！若传闻证伪，价格会跌破700元 吗？ ...

主力合约涨跌排行 (%) 8.00% 6.00% 4.00% 2.00% 0.00% -2.00% -4.00% 看期货热点,到 3 金十期货 EFF 2025 06-04 17:00 $ 期市动态雷达 今日主力合约涨跌分布 今日主力合约市场中51个合约上涨,22个合 约下跌。市场呈现明显的多头情绪,更多资金 和交易活动集中在上涨品种上。 涨幅居前的品种: 焦煤2509(+7.19%)、集运指数(欧线) 2508(+6.86%)、焦炭2509(+5.72%)。这些品种受供需影响显著。 数据透视线索 跌幅居前的品种： 胶板2511(-3.26%)、菜油2509(-2.56%)、烧碱 2509(-1.95%)，可能受空头力量增强或基本面利空影响。 资金流向(亿元) 20 10 0 -10 -20 -30 资金流入最多的品种： 沪铜2507(11.13亿元)、沪银2508(3.48亿元)、 焦煤2509(2.95亿元)，这些品种吸引了大量主力资金关注。 资金流出最多的品种: 沪金2508(-29.81亿元)、沪深300 2506(-19.09 亿元)、中证1000 2506(-17.96亿元)，这些品种出现了明显的 ...

Group 1: Copper - The LME cash - 3M spread widened due to the large - scale extraction of Russian copper from LME warehouses and its entry into the Chinese market, and high spot premiums in Southeast Asia. Domestic cross - month spreads and spot premiums remained stable, with weakening export demand and potential weakening downstream demand and orders. The supply disruption at Kamora Copper Mine may last until the fourth quarter, negatively affecting Ivanhoe's annual production guidance. The domestic refined copper balance may shift from tight to neutral, and rising inventory may suppress absolute prices [1]. Group 2: Aluminum - Supply increased slightly, with large imports of aluminum ingots from January to April. Demand from May to June is not expected to decline significantly, with stable aluminum product exports and a slight decline in photovoltaic demand. There is still a supply - demand gap. Inventory is expected to decline gradually from May to July. The fundamentals are acceptable, and attention should be paid to demand. Long - short spreads can be held if the absolute price drops [1]. Group 3: Zinc - Zinc prices fluctuated widely this week, briefly surging due to rumors of extended maintenance at a southern smelter. Domestic TC rose to 3,600 yuan/ton, and smelting output is expected to increase by 25,000 tons in June compared to May. Domestic demand has limited elasticity, with slow - falling spot premiums and weak orders in North China, while exports in East and South China are stable. Overseas spot premiums are recovering, and European demand is slightly improving. Domestic social inventory is accumulating slowly, and the inflection point of accelerated accumulation is expected to occur in early June. LME inventory is slightly declining. Attention should be paid to the transition from inventory drawdown to accumulation, and short positions are recommended to be held. Partial profit - taking can be considered for long - short spreads due to potential Trump tariff interference [2]. Group 4: Nickel - On the supply side, pure nickel production remains high, and Russian nickel imports increased in April. Demand is weak overall, and Jinchuan's premium strengthened slightly after the price decline. Overseas nickel plate inventory is slightly increasing, and domestic inventory is stable. The macro - impact is weakening, and the short - term fundamentals are average. Opportunities to narrow the nickel - stainless steel price ratio can continue to be monitored [3]. Group 5: Stainless Steel - In terms of supply, production increased seasonally in April, and some steel mills cut production passively in May. Demand is mainly for rigid needs. The prices of nickel and chrome iron are stable. Inventory in Xijiao and Foshan is slightly decreasing, and exchange warehouse receipts are partially expiring. The fundamentals are generally weak, and short - term fluctuations are expected [3]. Group 6: Lead - Lead prices oscillated downward this week. On the supply side, scrap volume is weak year - on - year, recyclers are panic - selling, and mid - stream secondary smelters have concentrated production capacity, but operate at half capacity due to tight scrap battery supply. Downstream demand is weak, with about 50% capacity utilization. Concentrate supply is abundant from April to May. On the demand side, battery inventory is high, and overall demand is weak, but there is a motivation for replenishment this week. The refined - scrap price difference is +75, and secondary lead prices are strongly supported. LME inventory has concentrated deliveries. The old - for - new policy continues, but overall consumption is weak in the off - season from April. The price is expected to oscillate between 16,400 - 16,700 next week, and supply is expected to decline in May [5]. Group 7: Tin - Tin prices declined this week due to weak commodity sentiment and energy prices. On the supply side, the short - term复产 in Myanmar's Wa State requires negotiation, processing fees are low, and smelting profits are inverted. Some smelters in Jiangxi have cut production, and those in Yunnan are struggling. Overseas supply disruptions have basically subsided. On the demand side, solder demand has limited elasticity, and the growth of terminal electronics and photovoltaics is expected to slow. Domestic downstream actively replenished inventory after the price drop, and overseas consumption continues to be strong with low - level inventory fluctuations. Small - brand tin ingots are still in short supply, and exchange inventory is mainly high - priced Yunzi brand, with weak downstream提货意愿. In the short term, supply disruptions and weakening demand coexist, and the first half of the year is expected to see weak supply and demand. June may be a key period to verify the transmission from tight ore to tight ingot supply. Short - term observation is recommended, and medium - term short - selling opportunities can be monitored [7]. Group 8: Industrial Silicon - Some northern large - scale plants resumed production this week, Sichuan Tongwei continued to increase production, and new production capacities of Yunnan Yongchang and Xin'an Silicon Materials are gradually coming online. Market overall operating rate increased slightly, and some small plants in Sichuan plan to resume production in June during the wet season. Organic silicon plants that previously cut production increased their operating rates, slightly boosting the demand for industrial silicon. Inventory is at a high level, with sufficient warehouse receipts and non - standard goods, and high spot pressure. In the short term, both supply and demand are decreasing, and the rigid demand from polysilicon and organic silicon is weak. Speculative demand in downstream and mid - stream sectors is limited. Currently, the overall supply and demand of industrial silicon reach a tight balance after upstream large - scale plants reduce their operating rates. However, with the commissioning of new production capacities and small - scale resumption of small plants in the wet season, future supply has significant potential pressure. In the long - term, industrial silicon prices are expected to bottom - out based on the cash - flow costs of leading large - scale plants [10]. Group 9: Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate prices declined this week. Downstream buyers prefer new or discounted goods, and the basis of new goods is decreasing. Manufacturers are reluctant to sell and try to support prices, while traders have difficulty selling. Tianqi and Yahua resumed production, small recycling plants cut production more severely, some self - owned mines rely on hedging to maintain profits and production, and Jiangxi Chunpeng plans maintenance. The inventory accumulation speed slowed this week, and downstream only maintains a safety inventory. Low prices reduce the registration of new goods in warehouse receipts, and production in June is expected to decrease slightly. In the long - term, there are many lithium mine and lithium salt capacity expansion projects. If the operating rates of leading mine - smelting integrated enterprises do not significantly decline, lithium carbonate prices will continue to oscillate weakly. In the short term, downstream demand is weak, and policies to stimulate demand are less effective than expected. Lithium ore prices are declining, and lithium prices lack support. Downstream buyers replenish inventory cautiously at low prices. Smelters using externally - sourced ores are all in losses and cut production. The price has reached the cost line of some self - owned mines, which rely on hedging to maintain profits. Cathode production is less motivated due to losses, and high - cost production capacities may be cleared. Future supply has high elasticity, and there may be more news of production cuts and shutdowns next week, with prices expected to decline after oscillations [12].

农产品日报（2025 年 6 月 4 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | 玉米 | 周二，玉米近月合约减仓下行，端午假期结束后的首个交易日，期价承压下行， 技术上重回弱势表现。与期货下跌相比，玉米现货维持偏强表现。端午假日期间 期货市场缺少盘面的指引，北港主流收购价格维持稳定，产区深加工主流收购价 | 震荡下跌 | | | 格也暂无明显调整。端午节期间，华北地区玉米价格整体稳中偏强运行。麦收之 | | | | 前部分贸易商仍然继续出货，东北粮源持续流入，华北市场整体供应尚可，部分 | | | | 企业玉米价格上调 6-20 元/吨。端午节假期，销区市场玉米价格基本稳定。假期 | | | | 期间下游企业采购较少，使用前期订单及库存为主，产区价格暂时稳定，部分销 | | | | 区市场港口贸易商报价小幅上调。技术上，7 月合约是主力合约，今日期价表现 | | | | 受制于 20 日均线的压制，一根长阴线收复此前连续一周的上涨。从技术端和心 | | | | 理上恢复了悲观的预期。这样玉米市场中，现货强、期货弱，基差走强的表现还 | | | | 在继续 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided on industry investment rating. 2. Report Core Views - The industrial silicon industry is expected to continue its weak and volatile operation due to the oversupply situation in the short - term, with relatively high total inventory pressure and weak downstream demand [3]. - The polysilicon industry is expected to have a wide - range volatile operation, affected by the increase in warehouse receipts and weak downstream demand [6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Industrial Silicon - **Market Analysis** - On June 3, 2025, the industrial silicon futures price showed a weak and volatile trend. The main contract 2507 opened at 7110 yuan/ton and closed at 7070 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan/ton (-1.39%) compared to the previous settlement price. The position of the main contract 2507 was 200193 lots at the close, and on June 4, 2025, the total number of warehouse receipts was 62690 lots, a decrease of 563 lots from the previous day [1]. - The spot price of industrial silicon declined. For example, the price of East China oxygen - containing 553 silicon was 8100 - 8300 (-100) yuan/ton, and 421 silicon was 8500 - 9200 (-100) yuan/ton. The silicon prices in various regions also continued to fall. In May 2025, the industrial silicon output was 30.77 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.3% and a year - on - year decrease of 24.6%. From January to May 2025, the cumulative output decreased by 15.3% year - on - year [1]. - The consumption side: The quoted price of organic silicon DMC was 11300 - 11600 (0) yuan/ton. Some manufacturers stopped quoting prices. The overall market trading atmosphere was good, and the trading activity of both buyers and sellers was at a normal level [2]. - **Strategy** - The industrial silicon futures price hit a new low, and the spot price continued to decline. The supply was relatively weak overall, but the expectation of resuming production in large northwest factories increased, and some silicon factories in the southwest were preparing to start furnaces during the wet season. The demand remained weak. It is recommended to use range - based operations for single - side trading, and upstream producers should sell hedging at high prices [3]. Polysilicon - **Market Analysis** - On June 3, 2025, the main contract 2507 of polysilicon futures fell sharply, opening at 35605 yuan/ton and closing at 34360 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.65% from the previous trading day. The position of the main contract was 71600 lots (77400 lots the previous day), and the trading volume was 144680 lots [4]. - The spot price of polysilicon remained stable. The inventory of polysilicon manufacturers increased, while the inventory of silicon wafers decreased. The polysilicon inventory was 27.00, a month - on - month increase of 3.85%, the silicon wafer inventory was 18.57GW, a month - on - month decrease of 2.00%. The weekly polysilicon output was 21600.00 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.40%, and the silicon wafer output was 13.40GW, a month - on - month increase of 0.75% [4][5]. - The prices of silicon wafers, battery cells, and components remained stable [5]. - **Strategy** - The futures price showed a weak and volatile trend, mainly affected by the significant increase in the number of warehouse receipts. The spot price was stable with a slight decline. The polysilicon industry was operating at a reduced load, and the short - term supply pressure was relieved, but the inventory digestion was slow. The downstream demand was still weak. It is recommended to use range - based operations for single - side trading, and upstream producers should sell hedging at high prices [6].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - In May 2025, China's Caixin Manufacturing PMI dropped to 48.3, the first time below the critical point since October 2024, indicating a decline in both supply and demand in the manufacturing sector, with significant drag from external demand, continued contraction in employment, weak prices, and delayed logistics [7][8]. - For caustic soda, there is a strong current situation but weak expectations. The market is bearish on caustic soda profits due to insufficient demand - side drive, but the short - term downside space may be limited under the strong basis pattern [9][11]. - Synthetic rubber has a short - term static valuation with a small rebound at a low level, but the medium - term fundamental pressure is still relatively large [13]. - Rapeseed meal is affected by the weakening of soybean meal spot prices and the market is concerned about the progress of China - Canada trade negotiations. Rapeseed meal futures are expected to remain under pressure following soybean meal futures [15]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Metals - **Gold and Silver**: During the holiday, the Russia - Ukraine issue flared up again. Gold prices rose nearly 3% and silver followed the rebound. The trend intensities of gold and silver are both 2, indicating a bullish outlook [21][25]. - **Copper**: The reduction in inventory supports the price. The trend intensity is 1, showing a relatively strong trend [27][29]. - **Aluminum and Alumina**: Aluminum is in a range - bound oscillation, and alumina has a small rebound. The trend intensities of both are 0, indicating a neutral trend [30][32]. - **Zinc**: The price is relatively pressured at the upper level. The trend intensity is 0, showing a neutral trend [33][34]. - **Lead**: It is operating within a range. The trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral trend [35][36]. - **Tin**: It has stopped falling and started to rise. The trend intensity is 1, showing a relatively strong trend [37][40]. - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: Nickel is supported by short - term costs but suppressed by weak expectations. Stainless steel is in a game between negative feedback and production cuts, with steel prices oscillating within a range. The trend intensities of both are 0, indicating a neutral trend [41][42][47]. - **Carbonate Lithium**: The ore price dropped rapidly after the holiday, and the lithium price trend remains weak. The trend intensity is - 1, showing a bearish trend [49][51]. 3.2 Energy and Chemicals - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon**: Industrial silicon is oscillating weakly at the bottom, and polysilicon has an unexpected large increase in warehouse receipts, with the disk having a downward driving force. The trend intensities of industrial silicon and polysilicon are - 1 and - 2 respectively, showing bearish trends [52][54]. - **Caustic Soda**: There is a strong current situation but weak expectations. Attention should be paid to cost changes. The market is bearish on caustic soda profits, but the short - term downside space may be limited [9][10][11]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: It has a short - term static valuation with a small rebound at a low level, but the medium - term fundamental pressure is still relatively large [13]. 3.3 Building Materials and Minerals - **Iron Ore**: The demand expectation is weak, and the price faces downward risks. The trend intensity is - 1, showing a bearish trend [55]. - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: Affected by the macro - sentiment, the weak trend continues. The trend intensities of both are - 1, showing bearish trends [58][59][61]. - **Silicon Ferrosilicon and Manganese Silicide**: Silicon ferrosilicon is continuously exploring the bottom and oscillating weakly, and manganese silicide's ore end continues to be under pressure and oscillating weakly. The trend intensities of both are - 1, showing bearish trends [62][64]. - **Coke and Coking Coal**: Coke is in a wide - range oscillation, and coking coal is affected by news and in a wide - range oscillation. The trend intensities of both are 0, indicating a neutral trend [65][66][68]. - **Steam Coal**: It is in a stable stage at the bottom. The trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral trend [69][71]. 3.4 Agricultural Products - **Rapeseed Meal**: Affected by the weakening of soybean meal spot prices, it is concerned about the progress of China - Canada trade negotiations. Rapeseed meal futures are expected to remain under pressure following soybean meal futures [15]. - **Palm Oil**: Driven by India's tax cut and crude oil, the short - term sentiment is positive [69]. - **Soybean Oil**: The driving force of the soybean system is not strong, and it is relatively weak among varieties [69]. - **Soybean Meal**: Affected by the rebound of US soybeans and the weakness of rapeseed meal, it may still oscillate [71].