Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The prices of the container shipping index (European line) futures showed mixed trends on Thursday. The main contract EC2508 closed down 1.74%, while the far - month contracts rose between 1% - 3%. The announced price increase of shipping rates on the Asia - Europe route by major shipping companies provided slight support to the futures prices, but the negative impact of additional tariffs remained unimproved. - The latest SCFIS European line settlement freight rate index rebounded by 369.99 points from last week, a 29.5% increase. - The uncertainty of the trade war persists, and the escalation of the Russia - Ukraine conflict has cooled the demand expectation for the container shipping index (European line), leading to large fluctuations in futures prices. However, the rapid recovery of spot - end price indicators may drive the futures prices to rise in the short term. - The long - term improvement of the trade war remains to be observed. Investors are advised to be cautious, pay attention to the operation rhythm and risk control, and track geopolitical, shipping capacity and cargo volume data in a timely manner [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Data - **Futures Prices**: EC main contract closed at 1984.700, down 35.2; EC sub - main contract closed at 1380.5, up 8.2. The spreads of EC2508 - EC2510 and EC2508 - EC2512 decreased by 26.20 and 63.50 respectively. The EC contract basis increased by 16.80, and the main contract's open interest increased by 409 to 45012 hands [1]. - **Spot and Indexes**: SCFIS (European line) reached 1622.81, up 369.99; SCFIS (US West line) was 2185.08, up 466.94. SCFI (composite index) was 2240.35, up 167.64. CCFI (composite index) was 1154.98, up 37.37; CCFI (European line) was 1397.02, up 21.40. The Baltic Dry Index was 1738.00, down 58.00; the Panamax Freight Index was 1337.00, down 37.00. Container ship capacity was 1227.97 (in ten thousand TEUs), down 0.01 [1]. - **Charter Rates**: The average charter price of Panamax ships was 10588.00, up 507.00; the average charter price of Capesize ships was 22882.00, down 913.00 [1]. Industry News - From June 9th to 10th, the first meeting of the China - US economic and trade consultation mechanism was held in London. Both sides had in - depth discussions, reached a principled agreement on the measures framework for implementing the important consensus of the leaders' phone call on June 5th and consolidating the results of the Geneva economic and trade talks, and made new progress in addressing each other's economic and trade concerns. The US side said the meeting achieved positive results and would work with China to implement the consensus [1]. - The latest US inflation data remained moderate. In May, CPI increased 2.4% year - on - year and 0.1% month - on - month. Core CPI (excluding food and energy) increased 2.8% year - on - year and 0.1% month - on - month, both lower than expected. After the CPI data was released, US President Trump called on the Fed to cut interest rates by one percentage point [1]. Key Data to Watch - Germany's May CPI monthly rate final value on June 13th at 14:00. - France's May CPI monthly rate final value on June 13th at 14:45. - US June one - year inflation rate expectation preliminary value on June 13th at 22:00. - US June University of Michigan consumer confidence index preliminary value on June 13th at 22:00 [1].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core View of the Report - In the short term, gold prices may continue to fluctuate within a range and maintain a long - term upward trend. The silver - gold ratio has basically recovered before the counter - tariff, and there is a risk of further weakening in the short term. In the long term, the upward trend of gold remains unchanged, and it is recommended to allocate more on dips [5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price Data - On June 11, 2025, COMEX gold was at $3357.90 per ounce, London gold spot was at $3336.87 per ounce, London silver spot was at $36.57 per ounce, and COMEX silver was at $36.74 per ounce. Compared with June 10, they increased by 0.3%, 0.3%, 0.3%, and 0.4% respectively. AU2508 was at 777.54 yuan/gram, AG2508 was at 8902 yuan/kilogram, AU (T + D) was at 774.41 yuan/gram, and AG (T + D) was at 8888 yuan/kilogram, with increases of 0.3%, 0.2%, 0.3%, and 0.2% respectively [5] Spread/Ratio Data - On June 11, 2025, the gold TD - SHFE active spread was 3.96 yuan/gram, the silver TD - SHFE active spread was - 3.13 yuan/gram, and the gold and silver spreads and ratios had corresponding changes compared with June 10, with some spreads having significant percentage changes such as 9.3%, 9.4%, etc. [5] Position Data - As of June 10, 2025, COMEX gold non - commercial long positions were 246,982 contracts, non - commercial short positions were 59,077 contracts. COMEX silver non - commercial long positions were 81,981 contracts, etc., with corresponding percentage changes compared with June 9 [5] Inventory Data - On June 11, 2025, SHFE gold inventory was 17,817 kilograms (unchanged from June 10), SHFE silver inventory was 1,229,816 kilograms, an increase of 3.02% compared with June 10. COMEX gold inventory was 37,929,466 troy ounces, a decrease of 0.44% compared with June 10, and COMEX silver inventory was 495,180,453 troy ounces, an increase of 0.17% [5] Interest Rate/Exchange Rate/Stock Market Data - On June 11, 2025, the US dollar index was 99.05, an increase of 0.03% compared with June 10. The US dollar/yuan central parity rate was 7.18, a decrease of 0.03% compared with June 10. Other data such as US Treasury yields, VIX, S&P 500, and NYMEX crude oil also had corresponding changes [5] Market News and Analysis - The US appellate court ruled that Trump's tariff measures can continue during the appeal process. The US and Mexico reached an agreement on reducing steel tariffs and restricting imports. The EU believes that trade negotiations with the US will extend beyond the July deadline. China and the US had in - depth and rational consultations on trade, and basically reached a framework for implementing the consensus of the leaders' calls and Geneva talks. US CPI data in June was lower than expected, increasing the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in August [5]

Group 1 - International oil prices continue to rise, with WTI crude reaching $69.29 per barrel after a 4.9% increase, marking the largest single-day gain since October of the previous year [1] - The rise in oil prices is attributed to escalating security risks in the Middle East, prompting the U.S. to order partial evacuation of personnel from its embassy in Baghdad [1] - Market speculation about potential supply disruptions in the Middle East has intensified following threats from Iran to attack U.S. military bases if nuclear negotiations fail [1] Group 2 - The current surge in oil prices breaks the narrow trading range observed over the past month, highlighting the market's sensitivity to geopolitical tensions, particularly in the Middle East, which accounts for one-third of global crude oil production [3] - Despite the recent price increase, oil prices are down approximately 4% year-to-date due to concerns over trade wars affecting demand and the potential return of Iranian oil to the market [3] - The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) reports indicate significant uncertainty in the oil market, forecasting a supply surplus of 800,000 barrels per day, the largest since 2025 predictions began, while also noting that U.S. crude production is unlikely to exceed last December's levels [3]

Group 1 - The article discusses the challenges faced by the current administration, particularly in relation to trade negotiations and internal political dynamics [1][3][21] - The term "TACO" is introduced, symbolizing the administration's tendency to backtrack on strong positions, particularly in trade matters [1][5][9] - The administration's approach to immigration enforcement is causing discontent among its base, potentially jeopardizing support from key demographics [3][4][6] Group 2 - Recent trade negotiations with Japan have highlighted internal conflicts among U.S. representatives, leading to ineffective discussions and a lack of coherent strategy [10][12][14] - The article suggests that the administration's internal strife and lack of clear direction may hinder its ability to secure favorable trade agreements [14][23] - The potential for leveraging U.S. debt as a financial tool in trade negotiations is mentioned, indicating a complex interplay of economic strategies [8][24] Group 3 - The article emphasizes the importance of understanding the administration's fluctuating stance on trade and its implications for global economic relations [20][22][24] - It notes that the administration's focus on internal conflicts may detract from addressing external competitive pressures [21][22] - The conclusion suggests that the ongoing trade war could present opportunities for other economies to strengthen their positions [24][26]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Today, precious metals showed a pattern of strong gold and weak silver, with the main contract of Shanghai Gold rising 0.56% and the main contract of Shanghai Silver falling 0.28% [1]. - In the short - term, there are still risks of repeated Trump trade wars, economic recession, and geopolitical changes; the risk of stagflation in the US economy has increased, and the Fed maintains a cautious attitude towards interest rate cuts [1]. - In terms of the safe - haven attribute, the leaders of China and the US had a phone call, and the Sino - US trade talks are expected to focus on rare earths and export controls. The second - day consultation between the two countries went smoothly, and a trade framework was reached [1]. - In terms of the monetary attribute, the anxiety of US people about the future inflation path in May has eased. The market expects the Fed's next interest rate cut to be in September, and the total expected interest rate cut space in 2025 has dropped to around 50 basis points. The US dollar index and US Treasury yields are oscillating weakly [1]. - In terms of the commodity attribute, the rebound of the CRB commodity index is under pressure, and the appreciation of the RMB is negative for domestic prices [1]. - It is expected that precious metals will oscillate with a slight upward trend in the short - term, oscillate at a high level in the medium - term, and rise step - by - step in the long - term [1]. - The price trend of gold is the anchor for the price of silver. In terms of capital, CFTC net long positions in silver and iShare Silver ETF have increased their positions again. In terms of inventory, the visible inventory of silver has increased slightly recently [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Gold 3.1.1 Strategy - For conservative investors, it is recommended to wait and see; for aggressive investors, it is recommended to sell high and buy low. Good position management and strict stop - loss and take - profit are suggested [2]. 3.1.2 Gold - related Data - International prices: Comex gold main contract closed at $3344.80 per ounce, down $1.90 (-0.06%) from the previous day and down $32.10 (-0.95%) from last week; London gold closed at $3337.70 per ounce, up $18.40 (0.55%) from the previous day and up $2.95 (0.09%) from last week [2]. - Domestic prices: Shanghai Gold main contract closed at 777.54 yuan per gram, up 2.48 yuan (0.32%) from the previous day and down 4.88 yuan (-0.62%) from last week; Gold T + D closed at 774.54 yuan per gram, up 1.72 yuan (0.22%) from the previous day and down 5.14 yuan (-0.66%) from last week [2]. - Other data: such as basis, spreads, ratios, positions, inventories, etc., have different changes compared with the previous day or last week [2]. 3.1.3 Top 10 Net Positions of Shanghai Gold by SHFE Members - The net long positions of the top 5, 10, and 20 members increased, while the net short positions decreased [3]. 3.2 Silver 3.2.1 Strategy - For conservative investors, it is recommended to wait and see; for aggressive investors, it is recommended to sell high and buy low. Good position management and strict stop - loss and take - profit are suggested [6]. 3.2.2 Silver - related Data - International prices: Comex silver main contract closed at $36.66 per ounce, down $0.25 (-0.68%) from the previous day and up $1.98 (5.71%) from last week; London silver closed at $36.76 per ounce, up $0.51 (1.41%) from the previous day and up $2.51 (7.33%) from last week [6]. - Domestic prices: Shanghai Silver main contract closed at 8902 yuan per kilogram, up 15 yuan (0.17%) from the previous day and up 439 yuan (5.19%) from last week; Silver T + D closed at 8882 yuan per kilogram, unchanged from the previous day and up 441 yuan (5.22%) from last week [6]. - Other data: such as basis, spreads, positions, inventories, etc., have different changes compared with the previous day or last week [6]. 3.2.3 Top 10 Net Positions of Shanghai Silver by SHFE Members - The net long positions of the top 5, 10, and 20 members had different changes, and the net short positions decreased [7]. 3.3 Fundamental Key Data - Federal Reserve: The upper limit of the federal funds target rate, the discount rate, and the reserve balance rate (IORB) all decreased by 0.25 percentage points; the Fed's total assets were $67236.32 billion, down $5.14 billion (-0.00%) [8]. - Other economic indicators: M2 increased by 0.83 percentage points year - on - year; the 10 - year US Treasury real yield, the US dollar index, the US Treasury yield spread, etc., all had different changes [8][10]. - Central bank gold reserves: China's gold reserves were 2296.37 tons, up 4.04 tons (0.18%); the US had 8133.46 tons, unchanged; the world had 36250.15 tons, unchanged [10][12]. - Other indicators: such as inflation, economic growth, labor market, real estate market, consumption, trade, etc., all had different changes [10]. - Fed's latest interest rate expectations: The probability of different interest rate ranges at different meeting dates is provided [13].

Core Viewpoint - The EU is preparing significant countermeasures against the US, including tariffs on over $100 billion worth of American goods, as trade negotiations intensify and the deadline approaches [1][3]. Group 1: Negotiation Dynamics - The EU believes that trade negotiations with the US may extend beyond the July 9 deadline, with only a principle agreement likely to be reached by then [1][2]. - EU officials have engaged in frequent discussions with US counterparts, focusing on key sectors such as steel, aluminum, automotive, pharmaceuticals, semiconductors, and civil aviation [2]. - Despite a seemingly positive negotiation atmosphere, the EU perceives the US demands as unilateral and potentially skewed in favor of Washington [2]. Group 2: Countermeasures Prepared by the EU - The EU has prepared a two-tiered response plan, with the first tier targeting $210 billion worth of US goods, including politically sensitive products like soybeans and poultry [4]. - The second tier is more aggressive, aimed at $950 billion worth of US products, specifically targeting Boeing aircraft, American-made cars, and bourbon whiskey [4]. - The EU estimates that current US tariffs affect approximately €380 billion ($434 billion) of EU exports to the US, representing about 70% of total EU exports to the US [3]. Group 3: EU's Stance on Tariffs - The EU Commission has expressed readiness to defend its interests and protect its workers, consumers, and industries, while also indicating a preference for reducing tariffs rather than increasing them [6].

| 集运指数（欧线）期货日报 | | | | 2025/6/11 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 项目类别 数据指标 环比 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 最新 | 环比 | | EC主力收盘价 | -42.9↓ EC次主力收盘价 | 2001.500 | 1371.1 | +18.70↑ | | 期货盘面 EC2508-EC2510价差 | -59.80↓ EC2508-EC2512价差 | 630.40 | 446.60 | -49.90↓ | | EC合约基差 | +40.60↑ | -378.69 | | | | 期货持仓头寸（手） EC主力持仓量 | -891↓ | 44603 | | | | SCFIS（欧线）（周） | 369.99↑ SCFIS（美西线）（周） | 1622.81 | 2,185.08 | 466.94↑ | | SCFI（综合指数）（周） | 167.64↑ 集装箱船运力（万标准箱） | 2240.35 | 1,227.97 | 0.00↑ | | 现货价格 CCFI（综合指数）（周） | 37.37↑ CCFI（欧线）（周） | 1154 ...

Core Points - The U.S. is pressuring China to lift restrictions on rare earth exports, revealing its anxiety over the trade situation [1][3] - China's rare earth exports fell by 34% in May, with significant impacts on military-grade materials [3][5] - The U.S. faces a long and costly process to rebuild its rare earth supply chain, estimated to take 8-10 years and require hundreds of billions of dollars [5] - The trade war is reshaping global supply chains, with China transitioning from a reactive stance to a rule-setting position [3][5] - The U.S. is experiencing a dual challenge of needing to constrain China while simultaneously relying on its resources [5][9] Group 1: U.S.-China Trade Negotiations - The U.S. delegation, including key economic officials, is demanding China restore rare earth exports to April levels [1] - There is a disconnect in the negotiations, with the U.S. pushing for concessions while China calls for the removal of recent export restrictions [5][9] - The U.S. has violated previous agreements, such as the Geneva consensus, which has weakened the economic relationship [7] Group 2: China's Strategic Position - China holds significant leverage in the rare earth market, controlling 92% of refining and 99% of heavy rare earth processing [3] - The country is also advancing in other strategic sectors like renewable materials and biotechnology, further enhancing its bargaining power [5][9] - China's customs data shows a sharp decline in graphite electrode exports to the U.S., critical for the American steel industry [7] Group 3: Economic Implications - A complete decoupling of U.S.-China technology could lead to a global GDP decline of $1.5 trillion, equivalent to the entire economy of Australia [7] - The ongoing trade tensions are detrimental to both nations, with the U.S. potentially facing greater losses if it continues its current approach [9]

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 沪铜早报- 大越期货投资咨询部 : 祝森林 从业资格证号：F3023048 投资咨询证号： Z0013626 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 每日观点 铜: 1、基本面：冶炼企业有减产动作，废铜政策有所放开，5月份，制造业采购经理指数为49.5%，比上月 上升0.5个百分点，制造业继续保持恢复发展态势；中性。 2、基差：现货79215，基差335，升水期货；中性。 3、库存：6月10日铜库存减2000至120400吨，上期所铜库存较上周增1613吨至107404吨；中性。 4、盘面：收盘价收于20均线上，20均线向上运行；偏多。 5、主力持仓：主力净持仓空，空增；偏空。 6、预期：美联储降息放缓，库存高位去库，美国贸易关税不确定性增强，铜价震荡运行为主. 1、美国全面关税超预期。 2、全球经济并不乐观，高铜价会压制下游消费。 3、铜材出口退税取消 每日汇总 近期利多利空分 ...

农产品早报 2025-06-11 五矿期货农产品早报 五矿期货农产品团队 从业资格号：F0273729 交易咨询号：Z0002942 邮箱：wangja@wkqh.cn 从业资格号：F03116327 交易咨询号：Z0019233 邮箱:yangzeyuan@wkqh.cn 从业资格号：F03114441 交易咨询号：Z0022498 电话：028-86133280 邮箱：sxwei@wkqh.cn 王俊 组长、生鲜研究员 周二美豆小幅收涨，美豆局部干旱及中美接触有所助力，不过美豆总体优良率较高限制涨幅。周二国内 豆粕现货小幅下跌，因压榨量处于高位，供应宽松，华东低价报 2820 元/吨，国内豆粕成交较弱，开机 率较高，不过提货较好，下游仍在补库。后续大豆、豆粕库存预计仍然维持累库趋势，不过由于前期开 机延迟等，油厂库存压力相对后移。 杨泽元 白糖、棉花研究员 美豆产区未来两周降雨偏好，覆盖大部分产区，不过爱荷华州及以北降雨偏少。巴西升贴水涨跌互现， 或因销售进度偏慢，但雷亚尔升值提供支撑。25/26 年度美豆面积下降，单产的扰动使得总产量容易下 调，美豆如果没有宏观走弱的驱动，新年度可能是震荡筑底的过程。不 ...