黄金周三（9月10日）早盘下跌3619/3618附近反弹3641承压下跌，在跌至3620附近企稳上涨，欧盘保持震荡上涨走势，在上涨3657/3658附近后受阻转跌， 美盘震荡下跌走势，凌晨最低下探3635，日线收出一根上影线长于下影线的小阳线。 一、基本面 1、美国PPI疲软夯实美联储降息预期 数据表现：8月美国生产者物价指数（PPI）环比意外下降0.1%（预期上涨0.3%），同比涨幅2.6%（预期3.3%），且7月数据下修至0.7%；叠加8月非农就业 仅增2.2万人、前期就业数据大幅下修，显示美国经济放缓、劳动力市场降温。 20:30，美国将公布8月未季调CPI数据，预计年率将录得2.90%（前值为2.70%），月率将录得0.30%（前值为0.20%）；核心CPI年率预计将录得3.10%，月率 将录得0.30%，预计两者均与前值持平； 20:30，美国将公布至9月6日当周初请失业金人数，市场预期将新增23.5万人，前值录得23.7万人。 二、技术面 政策影响：市场对美联储降息预期强化——芝商所FedWatch工具显示，9月16-17日会议降息25个基点概率达100%，50个基点降息概率为8%-10%；分析师 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall energy and chemical market is in a state of shock. The oil price is affected by geopolitical risks and inventory data, and it is expected to fluctuate. The fundamentals of fuel oil, asphalt, polyester, rubber, methanol, polyolefins, and PVC also have different influencing factors, and their prices are expected to show different trends of shock [1][2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Crude Oil**: On Wednesday, the oil price center moved up. The WTI October contract closed up $1.04 to $63.67 per barrel, a 1.66% increase. The Brent November contract closed up $1.10 to $67.49 per barrel, also a 1.66% increase. SC2510 closed at 490.1 yuan per barrel, up 4.0 yuan per barrel, a 0.82% increase. The market is pricing in the increase in geopolitical risks, and the oil price is expected to fluctuate [1]. - **Fuel Oil**: On Wednesday, the main fuel oil contract FU2510 on the Shanghai Futures Exchange closed up 1.44% at 2,827 yuan per ton, and the low - sulfur fuel oil contract LU2511 closed up 0.48% at 3,383 yuan per ton. The supply in the Singapore area has increased recently. The fundamentals of FU and LU have no obvious driving force, and in the short term, attention should be paid to the fluctuations of the cost - side crude oil [2]. - **Asphalt**: On Wednesday, the main asphalt contract BU2510 on the Shanghai Futures Exchange closed up 0.55% at 3,463 yuan per ton. It is expected that the supply - demand contradiction will ease in September, and the asphalt price may have further upward space [2]. - **Polyester**: TA601 closed at 4,698 yuan per ton, up 0.43%. EG2601 closed at 4,319 yuan per ton, down 0.07%. It is expected that the PX price will fluctuate with the cost, the TA fundamentals have improvement expectations, and ethylene glycol is expected to fluctuate weakly [2][4]. - **Rubber**: On Wednesday, the main沪胶 contract RU2601 rose 40 yuan per ton to 15,980 yuan per ton. It is expected that the rubber price will be mainly in a strong - side shock, and close attention should be paid to the weather conditions in the production areas during the peak production season [4]. - **Methanol**: On Wednesday, the spot price in Taicang was 2,295 yuan per ton. It is expected that the methanol price will enter a stage - bottom [4][5]. - **Polyolefins**: On Wednesday, the mainstream price of East China wire - drawing was 6,750 - 6,960 yuan per ton. The polyolefins are gradually transitioning to a situation of both strong supply and demand, and the overall will show a weakly - fluctuating pattern [5]. - **Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC)**: On Wednesday, the PVC market in East China was in a shock - finishing state. It is expected that the PVC price will fluctuate weakly [5][6]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - The report provides the basis data of various energy and chemical varieties on September 11, 2025, including spot prices, futures prices, basis, basis rates, and their changes, as well as the quantile of the latest basis rate in historical data [7]. 3.3 Market News - Trump urged the EU to impose up to 100% "secondary tariffs" on China and encouraged similar measures against India. The EU official delegation will visit Washington this week to discuss joint actions to pressure Russia [11]. - The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) said that as of the week ending September 5, U.S. commercial crude oil inventories increased by 3.9 million barrels to 424.6 million barrels, and U.S. crude oil exports decreased by 1.1 million barrels per day to 2.8 million barrels per day [11]. 3.4 Chart Analysis - **4.1 Main Contract Prices**: The report provides the closing price charts of the main contracts of various energy and chemical varieties from 2021 to 2025, including crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, etc. [13][15][17]. - **4.2 Main Contract Basis**: The report provides the basis charts of the main contracts of various energy and chemical varieties from 2021 to 2025, including crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, etc. [26][28][32]. - **4.3 Inter - period Contract Spreads**: The report provides the spread charts of inter - period contracts of various energy and chemical varieties, such as fuel oil, asphalt, PTA, etc. [41][43][46]. - **4.4 Inter - variety Spreads**: The report provides the spread charts of inter - variety contracts of various energy and chemical varieties, such as crude oil internal - external spreads, fuel oil high - low sulfur spreads, etc. [59][62]. - **4.5 Production Profits**: The report provides the production profit charts of various energy and chemical varieties, such as ethylene - based ethylene glycol cash flow, PP production profit, etc. [67][69]. 3.5 Team Member Introduction - The report introduces the members of the Guangda Futures Energy and Chemical Research Team, including Zhong Meiyan, Du Bingqin, Di Yilin, and Peng Haibo, and their positions, educational backgrounds, honors, and professional experiences [72][73][74].

Group 1: Gold Pricing Dynamics - Gold exhibits three attributes: commodity, currency, and financial asset, with prices positively correlated to inflation and negatively correlated to the US dollar and real interest rates[3] - Since 2022, the negative correlation between gold prices and real interest rates has weakened due to central banks increasing gold reserves, reflecting declining trust in the US dollar[3] - The supply of gold is relatively stable due to resource scarcity and long exploration and extraction cycles, while demand has shifted from investment to strategic allocation, changing the pricing anchor from "real interest rates" to "central bank purchases"[7] Group 2: Central Bank Gold Purchases - The trend of central banks increasing gold reserves reflects a loss of confidence in the US dollar as the world’s reserve currency, particularly after the freezing of Russian assets due to the Ukraine conflict[8] - As of 2024, the US federal government debt-to-GDP ratio is projected to reach 124.3%, indicating a growing risk to the dollar's credibility and prompting countries to reduce dollar assets in favor of gold[8] - A survey by the World Gold Council indicates that 81% of central banks expect to increase their gold reserves in the next 12 months, suggesting a strong and growing demand for gold[10] Group 3: Future Gold Price Outlook - Geopolitical risks and political polarization are expected to continue, enhancing gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset and increasing central bank demand for gold[9] - The military expenditure of major countries is at historical lows as a percentage of GDP, providing a safety net against potential declines in gold prices[9] - The average annual net gold purchases by central banks from 2022 to 2024 reached 1,059 tons, accounting for 23% of global gold demand, indicating a structural shift in demand dynamics[34]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - Gold: ★★, indicating long - position dominance [1] - Silver: ★★, indicating long - position dominance [1] - Copper: ★, indicating long - position dominance [1] - Zinc: ★, indicating short - position dominance [1] - Lead: ★, indicating short - position dominance [1] - Tin: ★, indicating a neutral position [1] - Aluminum: ★★, indicating long - position dominance [1] - Nickel: ★, indicating a neutral position [1] - Industrial Silicon: ★, indicating long - position dominance [1] - Polysilicon: ★, indicating short - position dominance [1] - Lithium Carbonate: ★, indicating short - position dominance [1] Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Gold: Hold long positions. Supported by short - to long - term factors such as interest - rate cut expectations and geopolitical conflicts. Long - term strategic allocation is recommended. Be cautious of recession trading risks [1][3] - Silver: Hold long positions. High - level volatility in the short term. With strong demand and limited supply growth in the medium - to long - term, the upward trend remains unchanged. Pay attention to US dollar liquidity risks [1] - Copper: Hold long positions. The probability of a 50bp interest - rate cut by the Fed increases. With the arrival of the peak season and tight supply, long - term optimism is maintained [1][7] - Zinc: Wait for opportunities to short on rebounds. In the short term, more macro - and micro - level resonance is needed for further upward movement. In the long term, supply increases while demand decreases [1][10] - Lead: The price rebound is under pressure due to factors such as production recovery and weak downstream consumption [1] - Tin: The price stabilizes after a decline due to a weak supply - demand situation [1] - Aluminum: The price shows a strong upward trend. With the approaching peak season, demand recovers and supply is relatively stable [1][13] - Nickel: The price rebounds weakly. There is an oversupply of refined nickel and weak downstream consumption. Short - term profit - taking and waiting are recommended [1][17] - Industrial Silicon: The price shows a short - term upward trend due to news of energy - consumption restrictions [1] - Polysilicon: The price corrects from a high level. There are expectations of fundamental improvement and policy support. Short - term support is at 50,000 yuan [1] - Lithium Carbonate: Adopt a wait - and - see approach. There is a strong game between long and short positions. The market is waiting for the market to stabilize [1][22] Group 3: Summary by Variety Gold and Silver - **Market Review**: Gold remains strong supported by interest - rate cut expectations and geopolitical conflicts [2] - **Basic Logic**: US inflation pressure eases, interest - rate cut expectations increase; regional conflicts escalate; gold benefits from global monetary easing and geopolitical restructuring in the long term [3] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Adopt a long - position strategy in the short term. Gold should be continuously monitored if it fails to break through the high of 842. Silver may find support around 9630 [4] Copper - **Market Review**: Shanghai copper consolidates at a high level, adjusting and accumulating strength [6] - **Industrial Logic**: Copper concentrate supply is tight. With the arrival of the peak season, demand recovers, and the overall supply - demand is in a tight balance [6] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold long positions. Shanghai copper should focus on the range of [79,000, 82,000] yuan/ton, and LME copper on [9,900, 11,000] US dollars/ton [7] Zinc - **Market Review**: Shanghai zinc stops falling and rebounds [9] - **Industrial Logic**: Zinc concentrate supply is abundant in 2025. Domestic refinery maintenance increases in September, and inventory shows different trends at home and abroad. Demand is expected to improve in the peak season [9] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Wait and see for now, and wait for opportunities to short on rebounds. Shanghai zinc should focus on the range of [22,000, 22,500] yuan/ton, and LME zinc on [2,700, 2,900] US dollars/ton [10] Aluminum - **Market Review**: Aluminum prices continue to rebound, and alumina stabilizes at a low level [12] - **Industrial Logic**: For electrolytic aluminum, interest - rate cut expectations are obvious. Production increases slightly, and demand recovers in the peak season. For alumina, supply is abundant, and inventory accumulates [13] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Adopt a short - term long - position strategy for Shanghai aluminum, paying attention to the operating rate of downstream processing enterprises. The main operating range is [20,000 - 21,200] yuan/ton [14] Nickel - **Market Review**: Nickel prices rebound weakly, and stainless steel rebounds under pressure [16] - **Industrial Logic**: For nickel, there is an oversupply of refined nickel and weak downstream consumption. For stainless steel, downstream demand is weak, and inventory is gradually decreasing [17] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Adopt a short - term profit - taking and wait - and - see strategy, paying attention to the improvement of terminal consumption. The main operating range of nickel is [120,000 - 122,000] yuan/ton [18] Lithium Carbonate - **Market Review**: The main contract LC2511 opens low and goes high, falling more than 4% [20] - **Industrial Logic**: Supply shows an upward trend with a decreasing marginal increment. Demand shows peak - season characteristics, and inventory has been declining for four weeks. However, news of CATL's resumption of production affects market sentiment [21] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Adopt a wait - and - see approach, focusing on the range of [70,000 - 71,500] yuan/ton [22]

Report Summary 1. Reported Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the given report. 2. Core View of the Report - The gold price has started a new round of upward trend, and this rally may continue until the spring and summer of 2026. Investors are advised to maintain a long - position mindset in precious metal trading, and short - hedgers can appropriately reduce the hedging ratio. Silver, with strong industrial attributes, will also rise following the gold price and may outperform gold in terms of gains due to its high volatility [4][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Precious Metal Market Conditions and Outlook - **Intra - day Market**: As of March 2025, the US non - farm payrolls data for the past year was revised down by 911,000, indicating the weakness of the US job market before Trump's tariff policy. This increases the pressure on the Fed to restart the rate - cutting process. After the negative news was digested, the market shifted its focus to the US inflation data for August. Gold and silver prices first rose and then fell but remained relatively strong overall. On the 10th Asian session, the London gold price rebounded slightly to $3,650 per ounce. The mainstream market expectation is that the overall CPI and core CPI in the US in August will increase by 2.9% and 3.1% year - on - year respectively [4]. - **Medium - term Market**: From late April to early August, the London gold price fluctuated widely between $3,100 - $3,500 per ounce to digest the over - valuation pressure. Since August, the US employment and inflation situation supports the Fed to restart the rate - cutting process. Under Trump's pressure, the Fed's rate - cutting pace may be faster than required by the employment and inflation situation, and geopolitical risks continue to provide safe - haven demand for gold. From late August to early September, safe - haven demand, liquidity premium and currency - pricing factors jointly pushed the gold price above the $3,500 per - ounce mark [5]. 3.2 Precious Metal Market - Related Charts - The report provides multiple charts, including Shanghai gold and silver futures indices, London gold and silver spot prices, the basis of Shanghai futures indices against Shanghai Gold Exchange T+D contracts, gold and silver ETF holdings, the gold - silver ratio, and the correlation between London gold and other assets. All data sources are from Wind and the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures [7][9][11]. 3.3 Major Macroeconomic Events/Data - Israel launched an air strike on a Hamas leader in Qatar on Tuesday, escalating its military operations in the Middle East. This action has received strong negative responses worldwide, and the UN Secretary - General has condemned it [17]. - Apple launched a series of upgraded new iPhone models, including the thinner and lighter iPhone Air. It maintained stable prices despite the impact of Trump's tariff hikes on company profits. It also released the iPhone 17, iPhone 17 Pro, new - version AirPods Pro wireless earphones, and introduced a blood pressure monitoring function in the new - version Apple Watch [17]. - US President Trump stated that the US government is continuing to negotiate with India to resolve trade barriers between the two countries. According to the Financial Times, Trump has urged the EU to impose a 100% tariff on China and India as a strategy to pressure Russian President Putin [17].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the increasing market uncertainty due to global economic slowdown, geopolitical risks, and fluctuating central bank policies, highlighting the potential for a revaluation of gold as a safe-haven asset in this complex environment [1]. Group 1: Factors Influencing Gold Prices - Real interest rates are a crucial variable for observing gold price trends. As central banks tighten policies under high inflation, gold often faces pressure due to the lack of interest returns. However, if rates approach a peak or enter a downward trend, the decline in real returns could significantly enhance gold's pricing foundation [3]. - The performance of the US dollar and global liquidity patterns also impact gold. A temporary weakening of the dollar may lead to increased allocation of international funds towards gold and other non-dollar assets. Additionally, the trend of central banks increasing gold reserves is strengthening, as official purchases are becoming a key support for gold prices [3]. Group 2: Shifts in Gold Investment Logic - Current market valuation logic for gold is shifting from "short-term hedging" to "medium to long-term allocation." While risk aversion can drive short-term price increases, the long-term value of gold is supported by real interest rates, central bank demand, and the broader liquidity environment [5]. - Overall, the investment logic surrounding gold is becoming more diversified, serving as both a defensive asset during turbulent times and a structural beneficiary amid changes in interest rates and liquidity cycles [5].

Core Viewpoint - Gold prices have reached a new historical high, driven by factors such as expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, geopolitical risks, and increased demand from global central banks [1][2]. Group 1: Price Movement - On September 9, the spot price of gold in London hit a record high of $3,659.38 per ounce, surpassing the previous high of $3,646.46 per ounce on September 8 [1]. - As of September 9, the spot price was reported at $3,653.37 per ounce, reflecting a month-on-month increase of over 7% and a year-to-date increase of over $1,000, or more than 38% [1]. Group 2: Factors Influencing Gold Prices - The rise in gold prices is attributed to several factors, including the weaker-than-expected U.S. non-farm payroll data for August, a slight increase in the unemployment rate, and the resulting market speculation regarding the extent and frequency of potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [1]. - The decline in the U.S. dollar index and U.S. Treasury yields, driven by expectations of interest rate cuts, has also supported gold prices [1]. - Increased gold purchases by global central banks have been noted, with the World Gold Council reporting that central banks added 166 tons of gold in the second quarter of this year [1]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Short-term expectations suggest that gold prices may continue to rise, although technical adjustments could occur [2]. - Long-term projections indicate that gold prices are likely to trend upwards due to ongoing support from interest rate cuts and strong central bank demand for gold [2]. - The market's ongoing uncertainty regarding U.S. monetary policy and geopolitical risks is expected to sustain demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [2].

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overnight Israeli air - strike on the Hamas base in Qatar has increased the risk sentiment of geopolitical concerns, and the situation in Gaza is unlikely to improve. The EIA's short - term energy outlook remains pessimistic about future oil prices, and the API inventory has increased more than expected, putting pressure on prices. In the short term, continue to monitor geopolitical changes. Oil prices are expected to fluctuate. It is predicted to operate in the range of 480 - 490 in the short term, and long - term long positions should be held [3]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Prompt - **Fundamentals**: Israel's air - strike on Hamas leaders in Qatar has escalated the military operation in the Middle East. The EIA predicts that global oil prices will drop significantly in the coming months as OPEC+ production increases, causing a large increase in oil inventories. The U.S. economic employment figures may be 911,000 less than previously estimated. Overall, it is neutral [3]. - **Basis**: On September 9, the spot price of Oman crude oil was $70.05 per barrel, and that of Qatar Marine crude oil was $69.38 per barrel. The basis was $37.67 per barrel, with the spot price higher than the futures price, which is bullish [3]. - **Inventory**: The U.S. API crude oil inventory for the week ending September 5 increased by 1.25 million barrels, exceeding the expected decrease of 1.869 million barrels. The EIA inventory for the week ending August 29 increased by 2.415 million barrels, contrary to the expected decrease of 2.031 million barrels. The Cushing area inventory for the week ending August 29 increased by 1.59 million barrels. As of September 9, the Shanghai crude oil futures inventory remained unchanged at 5.721 million barrels, which is bearish [3]. - **Disk**: The 20 - day moving average is flat, and the price is below the moving average, which is neutral [3]. - **Main Position**: As of September 2, the main position of WTI crude oil is long, with a decrease in long positions; the main position of Brent crude oil is long, with an increase in long positions, which is neutral [3]. - **Expectation**: Oil prices are expected to fluctuate. In the short term, it will operate in the range of 480 - 490, and long - term long positions should be held [3]. 2. Recent News - **Israeli Attack in Qatar**: On September 9, there were several explosions in Doha, Qatar. Israel's military and security agencies admitted responsibility for the attack on Hamas leaders. The targeted Hamas leaders were said to be responsible for the 2023 attack on Israel and were planning new operations. The attack occurred during a meeting of Hamas leaders discussing a U.S. - proposed cease - fire in Gaza [5]. - **U.S. Employment Data Revision**: The U.S. government stated that the total number of employment positions in the economy as of March may be 911,000 less than previously estimated, indicating that employment growth had stagnated before Trump's tariff policies. The data revision means that the average monthly increase in non - farm employment is about 71,000 instead of 147,000. The financial market's reaction was limited, and the Fed is expected to resume interest - rate cuts next Wednesday [5]. - **Iran - IAEA Agreement**: On the evening of September 9, Iran's foreign minister and the IAEA director - general announced a new cooperation agreement in Cairo, aiming to build a new cooperation framework between Iran and the IAEA, which is the first meeting since the June bombing of Iranian nuclear facilities by Israel and the U.S. [5]. 3. Bullish and Bearish Concerns - **Bullish Factors**: None mentioned in the report. - **Bearish Factors**: The possibility of a cease - fire between Russia and Ukraine, and the continuous tension in U.S. trade relations with other economies [6]. - **Market Drivers**: In the short term, geopolitical conflicts are decreasing, while the risk of trade tariffs is rising. In the medium - to - long - term, supply will increase after the peak season [6]. - **Risk Points**: Disunity within OPEC+ leading to increased production, and the escalation of war risks [6]. 4. Fundamental Data - **Futures Market**: The settlement prices of Brent crude oil, WTI crude oil, SC crude oil, and Oman crude oil have all increased, with increases of $0.37, $0.37, $7.20, and $0.34 respectively, and the increase rates are 0.56%, 0.59%, 1.51%, and 0.49% respectively [7]. - **Spot Market**: The spot prices of UK Brent, WTI, Oman crude oil, Shengli crude oil, and Dubai crude oil have all increased, with increases of $0.22, $0.37, $0.67, $0.39, and $0.56 respectively, and the increase rates are 0.33%, 0.59%, 0.97%, 0.61%, and 0.81% respectively [9]. - **Inventory Data**: The API inventory for the week ending September 5 increased by 1.25 million barrels, and the EIA inventory for the week ending August 29 increased by 2.415 million barrels [3]. 5. Position Data - **WTI Crude Oil**: As of September 2, the net long position of WTI crude oil funds was 102,428, a decrease of 7,044 [16]. - **Brent Crude Oil**: As of September 2, the net long position of Brent crude oil funds was 251,054, an increase of 44,511 [18].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views - **Polyester Industry**: The short - term supply - demand pattern of short - fiber is weak, with high supply and uncertain demand during the peak season. PTA's absolute price follows raw material fluctuations, and its basis and processing fee repair drivers are limited. The supply - demand pattern of ethylene glycol is strong in the near term and weak in the long term. The price of PX is expected to be supported at low levels, but the rebound space is limited [2]. - **PVC and Caustic Soda Industry**: The caustic soda spot price may remain firm in the short term, while the decline space of the futures price is limited. The PVC market is under pressure, with supply increasing and demand remaining weak, and it is expected to continue weak and volatile [5]. - **Crude Oil Industry**: Geopolitical events increase the risk premium of oil prices, but the loose supply - demand pattern restricts the increase. It is recommended to mainly wait and see on the single - side, and look for opportunities to expand spreads on the option side [9]. - **Pure Benzene and Styrene Industry**: The supply - demand of pure benzene in September is expected to be loose, and its price is driven by oil prices. The short - term drive of styrene is weak, but there is an expectation of improvement in supply - demand in the future [14]. - **Polyolefin Industry**: The current core contradiction in the polyolefin market is not prominent. The market will present a pattern of "decreasing supply and increasing demand", with attention to the supply rhythm and seasonal demand [17]. - **Urea Industry**: The urea futures price is weak due to a loose supply - demand pattern and low market sentiment, with high supply and weak demand [21]. - **Methanol Industry**: The methanol supply is increasing, and the demand from traditional downstream is weak. The port is accumulating inventory, and attention should be paid to the inventory digestion rhythm [33]. Summary by Directory Polyester Industry - **Raw Material Prices**: On September 9, Brent crude oil (November) was $66.02/barrel, up 0.6%; CFR China PX was $836/ton, up 0.4% [2]. - **Product Prices and Cash Flows**: POY150/48 price was 6805 yuan/ton, down 0.3%; its cash flow was 144 yuan/ton, down 3.7% [2]. - **Industry Operating Rates**: The comprehensive operating rate of polyester was 91.3%, up 1.0%; the operating rate of PTA was 70.4%, up 3.4% [2]. PVC and Caustic Soda Industry - **Product Prices**: On September 9, the market price of PVC in East China was 4650 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong was 2718.8 yuan/ton, unchanged [5]. - **Industry Operating Rates**: The operating rate of the caustic soda industry was 86.7%, up 1.5%; the total operating rate of PVC was 76.2%, up 3.9% [5]. - **Inventory**: On September 4, the inventory of liquid caustic soda in East China factories was 170,000 tons, down 7.8%; the total social inventory of PVC was 533,000 tons, up 2.1% [5]. Crude Oil Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: On September 10, Brent crude oil was $66.70/barrel, up 0.47%; the spread between Brent M1 - M3 was $0.55/barrel, up 3.77% [9]. - **Driving Factors**: Geopolitical events such as the Israeli air - strike on Doha and Ukraine's attacks on Russian energy infrastructure support oil prices, while the loose supply - demand pattern restricts the increase [9]. Pure Benzene and Styrene Industry - **Raw Material Prices**: On September 9, CFR China pure benzene was $733/ton, down 0.1%; the price of pure benzene in East China was 5900 yuan/ton, down 0.2% [13]. - **Product Prices and Spreads**: The spot price of styrene in East China was 7110 yuan/ton, down 0.4%; the spread between EB - BZ spot was 1210 yuan/ton, down 1.6% [14]. - **Industry Operating Rates**: The operating rate of Asian pure benzene was 77.9%, unchanged; the operating rate of styrene was 79.7%, up 2.0% [14]. Polyolefin Industry - **Product Prices**: On September 9, the closing price of L2601 was 7229 yuan/ton, down 0.30%; the closing price of PP2601 was 6949 yuan/ton, down 0.27% [17]. - **Inventory and Operating Rates**: The inventory of PE decreased last week, while that of PP increased. The operating rate of PP devices was 80.2%, up 2.6% [17]. Urea Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: On September 9, the price of the main urea contract was 2398 yuan/ton, down 0.42%; the spread between UR - MA main contracts was - 756 yuan/ton, down 2.38% [21]. - **Supply and Demand**: The daily output of urea is relatively high, and demand from agriculture, industry, and exports is weak [21]. - **Inventory**: The factory inventory of urea was 1095,000 tons, up 0.85%; the port inventory was 620,900 tons, up 3.48% [21]. Methanol Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: On September 9, the closing price of MA2601 was 2398 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; the spread between MA91 was - 151 yuan, up 9 yuan [33]. - **Inventory**: The enterprise inventory of methanol was 341,083 tons, up 1 ton; the port inventory was 1428,000 tons, up 13 tons [33]. - **Operating Rates**: The operating rate of upstream domestic enterprises was 74.21%, up 2%; the operating rate of downstream external - procurement MTO devices was 78.81%, up 0.2% [33].

地缘局势方面，当地时间9月9日，以色列对卡塔尔发动空袭，出动15架战机打击哈马斯高级领导人，造 成五名成员死亡。白宫称仅在行动前一刻获知并表示遗憾，卡塔尔方面保留回应的权利。此事显著加剧 中东地区紧张局势，引发国际社会对冲突外溢及大国博弈升级的关注。与此同时，外界关注俄罗斯是否 会趁美国注意力分散之际，在乌克兰方向加大军事行动力度，这一可能性令本就复杂的地缘格局更添变 数。地缘政治风险的显著升温提振了市场避险情绪，为贵金属价格提供支撑。 【交易思路】 贵金属牛市格局延续，聚焦高位回调后的布局机会。短期重点关注9月10日公布的美国PPI及9月11日的 CPI数据，这两项通胀指标的表现将显著影响市场对美联储降息节奏和幅度的预期。在地缘局势持续紧 张、经济数据整体疲软以及政策不确定性延续的背景下，贵金属预计延续震荡偏强走势，当前高位震荡 属于健康整固，中长期在降息预期和地缘风险支撑下价格重心仍有望稳步上移。 技术面上，黄金关键支撑位于3550美元附近，下一目标可看向3730美元左右，中长期有望挑战3800美元 高位；白银守稳40美元后短期或测试43美元附近阻力，中期目标可关注45美元方向。 【行情回顾】 周二，美国 ...