格隆汇1月5日｜新加坡华侨银行投资策略董事总经理Vasu Menon表示，尽管特朗普承诺由美国企业支 持振兴委内瑞拉的石油生产，但在产能能够全面恢复之前，重启运营仍需要相当长的时间以及大量资本 投入。在持续的政治动荡背景下，供应中断可能在短期内小幅推高油价。不过，鉴于委内瑞拉目前并非 主要石油生产国，其影响可能有限。欧佩克的产量决策也有助于稳定油价。"总体而言，经历了2025年 一整年的重大地缘政治事件后，市场如今对地缘政治风险的脆弱性似乎有所降低。短期突发事件可能引 发一些紧张反应，但正如去年所见，其影响或许只是昙花一现。" ...

1月5日 资讯分享 欧佩克+八国同意第一季度暂停增产，会议未谈及委内瑞拉问题。 美联储保尔森：若通胀降温，美联储或可进一步降息。不会立即出台任何额外降息举措。 随着交易员在供应过剩担忧与地缘政治风险之间权衡，国际原油低位震荡。WTI原油盘中曾跌超1%， 最终收跌0.21%，报57.21美元/桶，但周线勉强录得两连涨；布伦特原油最终收跌0.07%，报60.73美元/ 桶。 委内瑞拉局势——①美对委发起"三小时闪电战"。②委副总统代行职权。③川普威胁委代理总统，还 称"绝对需要格陵兰岛" 。④美国解除加勒比海空域限制。⑤欧盟发布有关声明，未谴责美国。 伊朗内乱——①伊朗：已针对煽动骚乱带头人进行定点逮捕。②伊朗：如果华盛顿冒险行事，该地区的 美基地将成为目标。 上周五，由于即将到来的彭博商品指数再平衡可能引发被动型基金的集中抛售，贵金属投资者正保持谨 慎。现货黄金先涨后跌，美盘前一度收复4400美元关口，随后急转直下，回吐日内大部分涨势，最终收 涨0.36%，报4330.5美元/盎司；现货白银最终收涨1.92%，报72.66美元/盎司。 ...

他补充道，Signum公司非常确信委内瑞拉的局势将按照当前的趋势发展，并且他们已经开始为此做准备。一旦时机成熟，他们将组织投资者团体前往该 国。事实上，Signum曾经也组织过类似的考察活动，带领资产管理经理和对冲基金代表前往叙利亚和乌克兰等地进行考察。 随着委内瑞拉总统尼古拉斯·马杜罗于周六被美国拘留的消息传出，一支由约20名美国投资者组成的考察团正在筹划，预计将在今年3月前往委内瑞拉考察。 政治风险咨询公司Signum Global Advisors的主席查尔斯·迈尔斯，在接受《商业内幕》采访时表示，在他接触的投资者中，普遍弥漫着一种谨慎乐观的情 绪。他指出，展望未来12到24个月，委内瑞拉成功的关键将取决于外国投资，并且从现在开始，委内瑞拉的发展将更多依赖外国资本，尤其是在石油和天然 气行业，这一点非常明显。但在建筑业和旅游业，也存在巨大的商机。 迈尔斯强调，他和他的公司并不评判美国是否介入委内瑞拉政权问题，而是帮助客户分析投资机会，并帮助他们规避可能因地缘政治事件带来的风险。 迈尔斯表示：很多人早已预见到这一天的到来，尤其是那些敏锐的投资者。很多人甚至提前购买了委内瑞拉的债券。他说，目前市场上存在一种 ...

Group 1 - The precious metals market has gained significant attention, with gold and silver reaching historical highs in December 2025, with gold surpassing $4500 per ounce and silver peaking at $72.7 per ounce, marking annual increases of over 70% and nearly 150% respectively [1] - The surge in precious metal prices is attributed to multiple macroeconomic factors and changes in industry dynamics, driven by increased risk aversion and accelerated capital inflow into the sector [1][2] - The Federal Reserve's anticipated interest rate cuts, driven by rising unemployment and lower-than-expected core CPI, have weakened the dollar and reduced the opportunity cost of holding precious metals, further supporting price increases [2] Group 2 - Geopolitical risks have intensified, prompting a flight to safety into precious metals, which, combined with the end-of-year asset rebalancing cycle, has accelerated capital allocation into this sector [2] - Industrial demand, particularly for silver due to the expansion of photovoltaic installations and increased AI server demand, has provided strong support for precious metal prices [2] - The market sentiment and capital rotation have played a crucial role in the recent price surge, with speculative and trend-following funds entering the market, amplifying price increases [3] Group 3 - Central banks have continued their gold purchasing trend, with a reported net purchase of 53 tons in October 2025, a 36% month-on-month increase, highlighting the strategic value of precious metals in official reserves [3] - The recent volatility in precious metals has led to increased margin requirements for trading, indicating heightened market risk [3] - Despite short-term volatility, long-term prospects for precious metals remain strong due to ongoing global monetary easing, persistent central bank purchases, and geopolitical risks [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View - Short - term attention should be paid to the impact of overseas events on the risk appetite of domestic equity assets. In the medium and long term, stock indices in 2026 are expected to continue rising on the basis of 2025. Macro - policies continue to exert force, and a moderate rebound in inflation may help improve corporate profit expectations. Capital market reform policies are expected to bring incremental funds to A - shares. The role of Central Huijin as a "quasi - stabilization fund" will also support the market. Investors can wait for the geopolitical situation to become clear and market risk appetite to recover before opportunistically building long positions [6] 3. Summary of Related Catalog 3.1 Money Market - DRO01 closed at 1.33 with a 9.30bp increase, DR007 at 1.98 with a 29.47bp increase, GC001 at 1.86 with a 17.50bp decrease, GC007 at 1.74 with a 31.00bp decrease, SHBOR 3M at 1.60 with a 0.20bp decrease, LPR 5 - year at 3.50 with no change, 1 - year treasury bond at 1.34 with a 0.18bp increase, 5 - year treasury bond at 1.63 with a 1.33bp increase, 10 - year treasury bond at 1.85 with a 0.29bp decrease, and 10 - year US treasury bond at 4.19 with a 1.00bp increase. On the last trading day of 2025, the central bank's open - market operations continued to significantly increase volume and maintain net investment. The money market on Wednesday remained generally loose, but due to the New Year's Day holiday, the main repurchase rates of deposit - taking institutions generally rose, with the weighted average rate of the seven - day repurchase across the holiday rising nearly 30bp to around the 2% mark [4] 3.2 Stock Index Market - The CSI 300 closed at 4630 with a 0.46% decrease, the SSE 50 at 3031 with a 0.18% decrease, the CSI 500 at 7466 with a 0.09% increase, the CSI 1000 at 7595 with a 0.03% decrease. The IF current - month contract closed at 4622 with a 0.5% decrease, the IH current - month contract at 3026 with a 0.3% decrease, the IC current - month contract at 7456 with no change, the IM current - month contract at 7581 with a 0.2% decrease. The IF trading volume was 103038 with a 9.1% increase and the holding volume was 276001 with a 1.8% decrease. The IH trading volume was 49681 with a 20.7% increase and the holding volume was 88647 with a 0.3% increase. The IC trading volume was 110981 with a 5.5% decrease and the holding volume was 274174 with a 5.1% decrease. The IM trading volume was 157425 with a 3.6% decrease and the holding volume was 360137 with a 3.4% decrease. During the holiday, the overseas markets performed strongly. On January 2nd, the Hong Kong stock market had a good start, with the Hang Seng Index closing up 2.76% and the Hang Seng Technology Index up 4%. The semiconductor sector led the rise. The FTSE China A50 index futures rose nearly 1%, and the RMB - US dollar exchange rate once broke through the 6.97 mark [5] 3.3 Stock Index Futures Premium and Discount - The IF premium/discount rates for the current - month, next - month, current - quarter, and next - quarter contracts were 5.08%, 3.41%, 3.17%, and 3.56% respectively. The IH premium/discount rates were 5.14%, 1.52%, 0.98%, and 1.07% respectively. The IC premium/discount rates were 4.06%, 6.01%, 6.70%, and 8.55% respectively. The IM premium/discount rates were 5.56%, 9.29%, 10.19%, and 11.50% respectively [8]

2026年01月05日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-能源化工 观点与策略 | 对二甲苯：成本支撑，高位震荡市 | 2 | | --- | --- | | PTA：成本支撑，高位震荡市 | 2 | | MEG：上方空间有限，中期仍有压力 | 2 | | 橡胶：震荡略偏强20260105 | 5 | | 合成橡胶:短期中枢上移，中期步入震荡 | 7 | | LLDPE：上游库存转移，基差持稳 | 9 | | PP：1月多套PDH计划检修，盘面企稳震荡 | 10 | | 烧碱：关注1月交割压力 | 11 | | 纸浆：宽幅震荡20260105 | 12 | | 玻璃：原片价格平稳 | 14 | | 甲醇：短期偏强 | 15 | | 尿素：震荡中枢上移 | 17 | | 苯乙烯：短期震荡 | 19 | | 纯碱：现货市场变化不大 | 21 | | LPG：地缘因素扰动成本，关注下行驱动兑现 | 22 | | 丙烯：上下驱动有限，现货走势企稳 | 22 | | PVC：震荡为主 | 25 | | 燃料油：地缘冲突爆发，短期将继续上行 | 26 | | 低硫燃料油：大概率出现跟涨，外盘现货高低硫价差暂时平稳 | 26 | ...

【最新黄金期货行情解析】 2月黄金期货近期呈现高位震荡，地缘政治风险与美联储降息预期支撑金价。技术面看，多头需突破 4500美元关键阻力以确认上行趋势，空头则关注4250美元支撑。当前初步阻力位于4453美元，进一步阻 力为4475美元；初步支撑在4400美元，若跌破可能下探4367美元。市场情绪受避险需求主导，但需警惕 技术性回调风险。操作上，建议多头等待突破4500美元后入场，空头在4475美元附近逢高试空，止损设 于关键点位上方。 美国费城联储主席、2026年FOMC新晋票委安娜·保尔森在上周六美国经济学会年会的准备讲稿中表 示，若经济前景保持良性，2026年晚些时候适度降息可能是合适的。她预计通胀将有所缓和，劳动力市 场趋于稳定，全年经济增长约2%，在此情况下，今年晚些时候对联邦基金利率进行适度调整是合理 的。 保尔森指出，劳动力市场风险仍较高，需求减速快于特朗普政府打击移民政策带来的供应收缩，但失业 保险申请已趋稳，劳动力市场虽承压但未崩溃。她认为当前政策仍略显限制性，有助于维持通胀下行， 推动其逐步回到美联储2%的目标。 对于关税影响，保尔森承认其可能使2026年上半年通胀保持在高位，但预计下半年 ...

姓名：陈栋 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F0251793 投资咨询证号：Z0001617 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：chendong@bcqhgs.com 本人具有中国期货业协会授 以勤勉的职业态度，独立、客 观地出具本报告。本报告清晰 准确地反映了本人的研究观 点。本人不会因本报告中的具 体推荐意见或观点而直接或 间接接收到任何形式的报酬。 原油 | 专题报告 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 2026 年 1 月 5 日 原油 专业研究·创造价值 地缘诡谲暗涌 原油溢价仍存 摘 要 2026 年全球原油市场正处于供需基本面与地缘政治风险的深 度博弈期。国际能源署（IEA）预测，全年原油市场日均过剩量将 达 380-409 万桶，占全球需求的 4%，供应过剩格局成为市场运行 主基调。然而，中东、南美、俄乌三大关键区域的地缘局势动荡持 续发酵，形成对供应端的潜在冲击，与供需基本面形成反向拉扯。 中东地区，伊朗社会危机与以伊影子战争升级、红海航运通道安全 风险上升，叠加海湾国家转型期的政策不确定性，构成原油供应的 核心地缘风险点；南美地区，委内瑞拉在美制裁高压下开启对美石 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Geopolitical risks have suddenly changed, and the commodity market may experience new fluctuations. The Fed meeting minutes did not provide more information to boost market sentiment. Domestic policies are gradually taking effect, and new policies will be introduced to achieve a stable economic start. Geopolitical factors, such as the US's new actions against Venezuela, will disrupt commodities like crude oil and drive a phased rebound in energy prices [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs PART ONE: Main Viewpoints - **Market Review**: This week, domestic commodities fluctuated. During the Christmas and New Year holidays, the news was relatively quiet, and market trading was dull [3] - **Overseas Factors** - The Fed meeting minutes showed internal disagreement on policy paths. The Fed has entered a "wait - and - see" policy stage, and future interest rate decisions will be more data - dependent [3] - The US manufacturing PMI in December 2025 was 51.8, lower than November's 52.2 and the market expectation of 52, indicating a significant slowdown in manufacturing expansion [3] - US President Trump postponed the tariff increase plan for imported soft furniture, kitchen cabinets, and bathroom cabinets on December 31, 2025 [3] - The US military's action in Venezuela on January 3, 2026, a geopolitical "black swan" event, briefly pushed up the risk premium of crude oil and stimulated safe - haven assets. However, the impact on oil prices is limited and unsustainable due to the global oil supply glut [3] - **Domestic Factors** - In December, China's manufacturing, non - manufacturing, and composite PMI all rose into the expansion range, indicating an overall recovery of the economic climate. There was an improvement in supply and demand, a continuation of the price recovery, and a return of the non - manufacturing business activity index to the expansion range [3] - The National Fiscal Work Conference in December 2025 implemented the fiscal policy tone, showing policy continuity and stability [3] - During the New Year's Day holiday in 2026, the domestic consumption and travel markets had a strong start [3] - The National Development and Reform Commission and the Ministry of Finance jointly issued a notice on large - scale equipment renewal and consumer goods trade - in policies in December 2025, optimizing support scope, subsidy standards, and implementation mechanisms, and advancing 62.5 billion yuan in special treasury bond funds [3] PART TWO: Overseas Situation Analysis - **Interest Rate Decision**: The Fed cut the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to 3.50% - 3.75% in December 2025, but the number of opposing votes was the highest since 2019, revealing internal differences on the policy path [3] - **Manufacturing PMI**: The US manufacturing PMI in December 2025 was 51.8, the lowest in five months, showing a slowdown in manufacturing expansion [3][10] - **Tariff Policy**: The US postponed the tariff increase on imported soft furniture, kitchen cabinets, and bathroom cabinets [3][13] - **Geopolitical Event**: The US military action in Venezuela on January 3, 2026, affected the oil market, but the impact was limited due to the global oil supply surplus [3][16] PART THREE: Domestic Situation Analysis - **PMI Index**: In December 2025, China's manufacturing, non - manufacturing, and composite PMI rose to the expansion range, with improvements in supply, demand, price, and business expectations [3][21] - **Fiscal Policy**: The National Fiscal Work Conference in December 2025 implemented the fiscal policy for 2026, showing policy continuity [3] - **Consumption and Travel**: The domestic consumption and travel markets had a strong start during the New Year's Day holiday in 2026 [3][27] - **Policy Optimization**: The equipment renewal and consumer goods trade - in policies in 2026 were optimized in support scope, subsidy standards, and implementation mechanisms, with 62.5 billion yuan in special treasury bond funds advanced [3][29][30] PART FOUR: High - Frequency Data Tracking - **Industrial Production**: The operating rates of the polyester industry chain and the blast furnace operating rates showed certain trends [33][37] - **Automobile Sales**: Automobile wholesale and retail data had specific changes [42][45] - **Agricultural Product Prices**: The average wholesale prices of vegetables, pork, and fruits, as well as the agricultural product wholesale price index, fluctuated [47]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Gold: Long - term hold [1] - Silver: Long - term hold [1] - Copper: Long - term hold [1] - Zinc: Rebound under pressure, short - term wait - and - see, long - term short - position allocation [1][9] - Lead: Under pressure and decline [1] - Tin: Under pressure and decline [1] - Aluminum: Rebound [1] - Nickel: Rebound [1] - Industrial silicon: Rebound in the short - term, short on rallies in the long - term [1] - Polysilicon: High - level adjustment, wait - and - see [1] - Lithium carbonate: High - level adjustment, wait - and - see [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - The geopolitical situation has a significant impact on the prices of precious metals and copper. The capture of the Venezuelan president has injected geopolitical risk premiums into the gold market and may distort the global copper supply [1][2][6] - The supply and demand fundamentals of different metals vary, affecting their price trends. For example, zinc is facing supply increase and demand decrease in the medium - long term, while aluminum and nickel are showing short - term rebound trends [1][8][12] 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Gold and Silver - **Core view**: Long - term hold, short - term attention to the trading of the safe - haven properties of gold and silver after the opening [1][3] - **Main logic**: The capture of the Venezuelan president has a far - reaching impact, enhancing the safe - haven demand for gold. The European economic data is weak, and the overall support for precious metals in 2026 is strong [2][3] - **Market data**: SHFE gold price decreased by 100.00%, COMEX gold price increased by 0.23%. SHFE silver price decreased by 100.00%, COMEX silver price increased by 1.81% [2] Copper - **Core view**: Long - term hold, short - term market volatility may increase, copper is likely to rise and difficult to fall [1][6] - **Main logic**: The global copper concentrate supply is continuously tight, and the geopolitical situation may further distort the supply. High copper prices suppress demand [5][6] - **Market data**: The closing price of SHFE copper main contract increased by 0.84%, and the social inventory increased by 2.41 million tons [4] Zinc - **Core view**: Rebound under pressure, short - term wait - and - see, long - term short - position allocation [1][9] - **Main logic**: As the Spring Festival approaches, demand weakens, supply slightly recovers, and the price center may gradually decline in January [8] - **Market data**: The closing price of SHFE zinc main contract increased by 0.06%, and the SMM seven - place social inventory decreased by 0.58 million tons [7] Aluminum - **Core view**: Rebound, short - term profit - taking and then wait - and - see [1][13] - **Main logic**: The production of electrolytic aluminum increases, the demand enters the off - season, and the alumina market is in excess [12] - **Market data**: The closing price of LME aluminum increased by 0.80%, and the SMM aluminum ingot social inventory increased by 1.5 million tons [10] Nickel - **Core view**: Rebound, short - term profit - taking and then wait - and - see [1][17] - **Main logic**: Indonesia reduces the nickel ore quota, and the inventory is at a high level. The stainless steel market is in the off - season [16] - **Market data**: The closing price of SHFE nickel main contract increased by 0.35%, and the SMM nickel ore port inventory decreased by 480,000 wet tons [14] Lithium Carbonate - **Core view**: High - level adjustment, wait - and - see [1][21] - **Main logic**: The production in January decreases, the supply has room to increase, and there is an expectation of inventory accumulation [20] - **Market data**: The price of battery - grade lithium carbonate decreased by 0.83%, and the weekly inventory decreased by 652 tons [18]