1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The crude oil market is currently being pulled by intermittent geopolitical risks and a weak supply - demand structure. In the short term, geopolitical risks may dominate, and it is expected that the prices of domestic and international crude oil futures may maintain a volatile and strong trend after the holiday. However, the weak supply - demand situation in the crude oil market is the long - term logic that suppresses oil prices, and the concern of global supply surplus still exists [5][76]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Market Review - **Spot price and basis**: As of the week ending December 31, 2025, the spot price of crude oil produced in the Shengli Oilfield area in China was 57.72 US dollars per barrel (equivalent to 405.7 RMB per barrel), with a week - on - week decrease of 3.2 US dollars per barrel. The main contract of domestic crude oil futures, 2602, closed at 432.2 RMB per barrel, with a week - on - week decrease of 12.5 RMB per barrel. The basis was 26.5 RMB per barrel, and the degree of contango decreased slightly [8]. - **Geopolitical risks and price trends**: In the last week before the holiday, as geopolitical risks were gradually digested by the market, the crude oil premium began to be reversed. The weak supply - demand expectation in the oil market dominated, causing the prices of domestic and international crude oil futures to show a volatile downward trend. The domestic crude oil futures 2602 contract was weak, with a cumulative decline of 2.17% to 432.2 RMB per barrel during the week [11]. 3.2 Crude Oil Supply and Demand Remain in an Excess Expectation, and the Production Increase Rhythm Slows Down - **OPEC+ production increase**: Since the second quarter of 2025, eight major OPEC+ oil - producing countries led by Saudi Arabia and Russia have launched a phased production increase policy. From April to September, the cumulative production increase exceeded 2.1 million barrels per day. In the fourth quarter, the production increase continued. In November, it was decided to continue the production increase plan in December. However, to cope with the possible seasonal off - peak demand in the first quarter of 2026, production increase will be suspended from January 2026 for three months. In November 2025, OPEC member countries' crude oil production was 28.48 million barrels per day, with a year - on - year increase of 1.711 million barrels per day [22][23][24]. - **Non - OPEC oil - producing countries**: Non - OPEC+ countries' capacity expansion has further aggravated the supply surplus. As of the week ending December 26, 2025, the number of active oil drilling platforms in the United States was 409, with a week - on - week increase of 3 and a year - on - year decrease of 74. The daily average crude oil production in the United States was 13.827 million barrels, with a week - on - week increase of 0.2 million barrels per day and a year - on - year increase of 0.254 million barrels per day [42]. - **Northern Hemisphere demand**: The United States, the world's largest crude oil consumer, has obvious seasonal changes in crude oil demand. From December to February is the peak season for heating oil consumption. Entering December, the demand for crude oil in the Northern Hemisphere will enter the peak season, and the inventory will change from accumulation to depletion. However, the EIA and IEA have both lowered their oil price forecasts and increased their forecasts for oil supply growth, while lowering their forecasts for demand growth [44][45][46]. - **US inventory and refinery operation rate**: As of the week ending December 26, 2025, US commercial crude oil inventory decreased by 1.934 million barrels week - on - week to 422.9 million barrels, and the refinery operation rate was 94.7%, with a week - on - week increase of 0.1 percentage points [48]. - **China's crude oil imports**: In November 2025, China's crude oil imports were 50.891 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.88%. The daily average import volume reached 12.38 million barrels, the highest level since August 2023. In 2026, China's crude oil production is expected to increase by 1.2% - 1.5%, demand is expected to reach 758 million tons, and imports are expected to reach 530 million tons [57][58]. 3.3 South American Geopolitical Turmoil Continues to Escalate, and Crude Oil Premium Increases - **Short - term impact**: In December 2025, the South American geopolitical situation heated up. The US military's actions against Venezuela triggered market concerns, leading to a short - term increase in the risk premium of international crude oil futures prices. However, this increase was mainly due to market sentiment rather than a substantial supply interruption [65]. - **Long - term impact**: In the long - term, the actual supply capacity of Venezuela is limited, and the global crude oil market is facing a structural supply - demand imbalance. The South American geopolitical risk is difficult to reverse the overall weak pattern of oil prices. After the initial sharp fluctuations, oil prices are expected to return to being dominated by fundamentals [66][67][69]. 3.4 Net Long Positions in the International Crude Oil Market Increased Significantly Week - on - Week - As of December 16, 2025, the average non - commercial net long position of WTI crude oil was 54,896 contracts, a week - on - week decrease of 3,537 contracts and a significant decrease of 9,975 contracts from the November average. As of December 23, 2025, the average net long position of Brent crude oil futures funds was 99,095 contracts, a week - on - week increase of 58,107 contracts and a significant decrease of 56,093 contracts from the November average [71]. 3.5 Conclusion - During the New Year's Day holiday, the US military's actions in Venezuela and the threat from President Trump may lead to an increase in oil prices after the holiday. However, the weak supply - demand situation in the crude oil market is the long - term factor suppressing oil prices. In the short term, domestic and international crude oil futures prices may maintain a volatile and strong trend [76].

gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn 综合晨报 2026年01月05日 (原油) 假期结束后首日外盘油价震荡。假期期间美委局势引发全球关注，3日美国抓获委内瑞拉总统，特朗 普要求美国石油公司在委内投资以恢复石油基础设施。美国对委内打击目标在于快速实现政权更迭 后接管委内石油资源，目前委内石油产量占全球仅约1%。尽管成员国地缘冲突持续升级，政佩克仍 在4日重申将在第一季度暂停增产。202601全球石油在供过于求主基调下油价中枢下移趋势难以扣 转。 【贵金属】 节日期间金银波动温和，铂肥大幅反弹。美国对委内瑞拉军事行动突显全球局势不确定性，不过事 件影响级别暂时有限，还需关注后续演绎。贵金属处于急涨后的阶段性调整阶段,短期谨慎参与, 波动率下降后维持多头思路。 【铜】 伦铜记录位置震荡，市场将首先消化委内瑞拉局势影响，尤其关注贵金属短线交投情绪。LME0-3月 现货升水38美元。因铜价年底涨势快，LME市场有较大规模已实值看涨期权,1月中上旬关注期权头 寸变动。等待海外机构对铜价预期表现的再修正。延续前期期权组合策略，关注炼厂排产、社库变 动，倘盘面缩量可能倾向价格将继续下调。 【铝】 假日期 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short - term, due to the US military strike on Venezuela, the uncertainty of the international situation has significantly increased, which is expected to cause some disturbances to the prices of risk assets such as A - shares. If the conflict escalates, the market risk appetite may be further pressured [3]. - In the long - term, in 2026, the stock index is expected to continue to rise on the basis of 2025. Macroeconomic policies continue to exert force, and the moderate rebound of inflation may help improve corporate profit expectations. Capital market reform policies are expected to bring incremental funds to A - shares, and the role of Central Huijin as a "quasi - stabilization fund" will also support the market. Investors can wait for the geopolitical situation to become clear and the market risk appetite to recover before choosing to build long positions [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Main Viewpoints and Strategy Overview - **Economic and Corporate Earnings**: In December 2025, China's manufacturing PMI was 50.1%, up 0.9 percentage points from the previous month, and the non - manufacturing business activity index was 50.2%, up 0.7 percentage points. The improvement was driven by the increase in working days and the effect of policy - based financial tools. On January 1, 2026, 62.5 billion yuan of national subsidy funds were issued, with specific subsidy plans for various products [3]. - **Macro Policy**: The new round of "national subsidies" is beneficial to consumption and equipment renewal, which is positive for the market [3]. - **Overseas Factors**: The US military strike on Venezuela has increased geopolitical risks, which may affect China's heavy oil processing and related downstream industries and increase the risk of economic and trade cooperation in Latin America. It will also cause disturbances to the prices of risk assets such as A - shares [3]. - **Liquidity**: Recently, the market trading volume has increased, and the margin trading balance has also risen. As of December 30, the A - share margin trading balance was 254.729 billion yuan, an increase of 13.57 billion yuan from the previous week [3]. - **Investment Viewpoint**: Short - term investment should be cautious, while long - term investment can consider going long after the geopolitical situation stabilizes [3]. 3.2 Stock Index Market Review - **Index Performance**: Last week, the Shanghai - Shenzhen 300 fell 0.59% to 4629.9; the Shanghai 50 fell 0.47% to 3031.1; the CSI 500 rose 0.09% to 7465.6; the CSI 1000 fell 0.13% to 7595.3 [7]. - **Futures Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume and open interest of stock index futures decreased last week. For example, the trading volume of CSI 1000 futures decreased by 44.23%, and the open interest decreased by 5.63% [13]. - **Contract Premium and Discount**: As of December 31, all contracts of stock index futures were at a discount, with different discount rates for different contracts [18]. - **Cross - Variety Spread**: The spread between the Shanghai - Shenzhen 300 and the Shanghai 50 was at a high historical level, while the spread between the CSI 1000 and the CSI 500 was at a low historical level [22]. 3.3 Stock Index Influencing Factors - Liquidity - **Central Bank Operations**: On the last trading day of 2025, the central bank's open - market operations continued to expand significantly and maintained a net injection. However, affected by the New Year's Day holiday, the main repurchase rates of deposit - taking institutions generally increased [24]. - **Margin Trading and Market Volume**: As of December 30, the A - share margin trading balance increased, and the financing purchase amount accounted for 11.8% of the total market turnover, at a high level in the past ten years. The average daily trading volume last week increased compared with the previous week [34]. 3.4 Stock Index Influencing Factors - Economic Fundamentals and Corporate Earnings - **Macroeconomic Indicators**: In 2025, GDP growth showed certain fluctuations, and indicators such as industrial added value, fixed - asset investment, and social consumer goods retail also had different trends. The manufacturing and non - manufacturing PMIs improved in December [37]. - **Real Estate**: The real estate market showed different trends in various indicators such as housing prices, sales volume, and investment [39]. - **Consumption**: The retail sales of consumer goods by enterprises above the designated size showed different growth rates in different categories [42]. - **Corporate Earnings**: The earnings indicators of major broad - based indexes and Shenwan primary industry indexes showed different performances [51][52]. 3.5 Stock Index Influencing Factors - Policy Driven - **Macro Policy**: The government has introduced a series of policies, including more active fiscal policies and moderately loose monetary policies, to support economic development, consumption, and the real estate market [56]. 3.6 Stock Index Influencing Factors - Overseas Factors - **US Economic Data**: In November 2025, the US manufacturing PMI decreased, the non - manufacturing PMI increased, the consumer confidence index rose, the unemployment rate was 4.6%, and the number of new non - farm jobs increased. The PCE and CPI growth rates also changed [67][70]. - **Trump's Policies**: Trump's team has proposed a series of tariff policies, which have a certain impact on international trade and the global economic situation [76]. 3.7 Stock Index Influencing Factors - Valuation - **Index Valuation**: As of December 31, 2025, the rolling price - to - earnings ratios of the Shanghai - Shenzhen 300, Shanghai 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 were at different historical percentile levels [84]. - **Sector Valuation**: Different sectors had different price - to - earnings ratios and price - to - book ratios, and their historical percentile levels also varied [88].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 【原油周报（SC)】 地缘局势再度升温，风险溢价或驱动油价反弹 主要周度数据变动回顾 国贸期货 能源化工研究中心 2026-01-05 叶海文 从业资格证号：F3071622 投资咨询证号：Z0014205 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议；期市有风险，投资需谨慎 01 PART ONE 主要观点及策略概述 原油:地缘局势再度升温，风险溢价或驱动油价反弹 | 影响因素 | 驱动 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | （1）EIA：EIA继续小幅上调对2025年和2026年全球原油及相关液体产量预测，预计2025年全球原油及相关液体产量为10,616万桶/日，较2024年上升 299万桶/日。(2)OPEC:11月份OPEC国家原油产量为2848万桶/日，较10月份下降0.1万桶/日；Non-OPEC DoC国家原油产量为1458.5万桶/日，较10月 | | 供给（中长期） | 中性 | | | | | 份上升4.5万桶/日。（3）IEA：11月份OPEC国家原油产量为2899万桶/日， ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view on polyester is "oscillating", with an expected upward trend mainly driven by the supply side [3]. 2. Core View of the Report - Amid the upsurge in bulk commodity sentiment, the polyester market is expected to be strong, pushing up prices. The PX market is at a critical juncture where speculative sentiment and fundamental factors intersect. The domestic PTA maintains high - level operation, and the new polyester installations drive the high - load operation of the polyester industry, keeping PTA consumption at a high level [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Views and Strategy Overview - **Supply**: The PX market sentiment is supported by the expectation of tight supply in Q1 2026. The PX - naphtha spread has widened to $360, and the PX - mixed xylene spread has reached $155, significantly improving the economics of aromatics extraction. The domestic PTA maintains high - level operation, and the high - load polyester industry supports demand [3]. - **Demand**: New polyester installations drive the high - load operation of the polyester industry. PTA consumption remains high, and the market's inventory - building willingness increases, leading to a rapid strengthening of the basis [3]. - **Inventory**: The port inventory of PTA has decreased by 30,000 tons, and mainstream polyester factories sell spot goods [3]. - **Basis**: The PTA basis has been continuously strengthening, and PTA profits have expanded significantly [3]. - **Profit**: The spread between PX and naphtha is $360, and the PTA processing fee has expanded to around 350 yuan [3]. - **Valuation**: The PTA price has significantly rebounded, exceeding 5,000 yuan. The profit of the reforming unit has recovered, and overseas PX units have increased their loads due to profit expansion [3]. - **Macro Policy**: Neutral [3]. - **Investment View**: Oscillating, expected to be mainly upward - trending driven by the supply side [3]. - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, adopt a wait - and - see approach. Pay attention to geopolitical risks [3]. 3.2 Oil Product Fundamentals Overview - **Crude Oil**: Affected by geopolitical factors, crude oil prices remain weak. Due to the intensification of US sanctions on Venezuela and the progress of Russia - Ukraine peace talks, crude oil prices are under pressure [6][26]. - **Gasoline**: In the US, gasoline inventories are accumulating, and demand is seasonally weakening. Gasoline cracking profits have slightly weakened. The European gasoline forward premium is strengthening, and the market has started to stock up for the 2026 summer driving season [10][15][26]. 3.3 Aromatics Fundamentals Overview - **PX Supply**: Although the PX supply has increased, the market is expected to be strong. The PX - naphtha spread has widened to $360, and the PX - mixed xylene spread has reached $155, significantly improving the economics of aromatics extraction. The PX market is at a critical juncture where speculative sentiment and fundamental factors intersect [66]. - **Aromatics Market**: Asian reformed naphtha remains firm due to regional supply - demand structural tightness. The cracking profit of naphtha has further deteriorated. The supply of reformed naphtha is restricted. In the short term, aromatic components are supported by supply constraints and seasonal demand, but in the medium - to - long term, they face challenges from energy transformation and low aromatic profits [45]. - **Mixed Xylene Market**: The mixed xylene market has strengthened significantly, mainly driven by the strong rebound of PX prices. The PX - mixed xylene spread has expanded to $156, and the mixed xylene - naphtha spread has reached a recent high of $174/ton. In the short term, the mixed xylene price will follow the PX trend, but its upward space is limited by weak gasoline blending profits and the impact of eased geopolitical risks on crude oil [59]. 3.4 Polyester Fundamentals Overview - **Ethylene Glycol**: The number of overseas ethylene glycol unit maintenance plans has increased. The ethylene glycol port inventory in East China remains at 730,000 tons. With the continuous decline of coal prices, the ethylene glycol price is difficult to be effectively supported. The return of coal - based ethylene glycol units exerts significant pressure on the market. Attention should be paid to recent domestic policy changes, and the ethylene glycol price may be supported under the background of carbon neutrality [79]. - **Gasoline**: Asian gasoline profits remain strong. Attention should be paid to domestic gasoline exports [80]. - **Polyester**: The polyester industry continues to operate at a high load, but demand is seasonally weakening. The commodity sentiment has weakened, and policy changes may have an impact on the polyester industry [87][99].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The commodity market sentiment has weakened, and it is expected that pure benzene and styrene will mainly fluctuate. The supply and demand of styrene both show a bearish trend, the inventory is neutral, the basis is bullish, the profit and valuation are neutral, and the macro - policy is bullish [4]. - Overseas markets for pure benzene and styrene are generally weak. The overseas pure benzene market has light trading, and the styrene market is in a downturn with limited upward momentum in the short term [74][95]. - The downstream demand for styrene is in the off - season, with weak demand and shrinking profits in industries such as ABS, PS, and EPS [52][64][75]. - The domestic pure benzene market has weak demand, high inventory, and narrow price fluctuations. Although there is short - term support from the rebound of energy prices, the overall market sentiment is still suppressed [84]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Viewpoints and Strategy Overview - **Supply**: The spread between styrene and naphtha has narrowed to $272, and the spread between styrene and benzene has dropped to $154. Asian producers are still in a loss - making state, showing a bearish trend [4]. - **Demand**: As of December 29, 2025, the commercial inventory of pure benzene in Jiangsu ports was 300,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 9.89% and a year - on - year increase of 56.09%, showing a bearish trend [4]. - **Inventory**: As of December 29, 2025, the total inventory of styrene in Jiangsu port samples was 138,800 tons, a decrease of 0.36% from the previous period, showing a neutral trend [4]. - **Basis**: The styrene basis has slightly strengthened, and attention should be paid to the change in cost support, showing a bullish trend [4]. - **Profit**: The spread between styrene and naphtha has narrowed to $272, and the spread between styrene and benzene has dropped to $154. Styrene profit has slightly recovered, showing a neutral trend [4]. - **Valuation**: The prices of pure benzene and styrene are at historical lows, and the overseas export demand is driving up the price. The market is paying attention to the strengthening of the basis and monthly spread performance, showing a neutral trend [4]. - **Macro - policy**: Geopolitical events may have an impact on the market, showing a bullish trend [4]. - **Investment Viewpoint**: It is expected that the market will mainly fluctuate [4]. - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, it is recommended to wait and see, and pay attention to geopolitical risks [4]. 3.2 Overview of Pure Benzene and Styrene Fundamentals - **Crude Oil**: The gasoline crack spread has shrunk, and there is less cross - regional trade [6]. - **Styrene**: The profit of non - integrated styrene plants is average [16]. - **Pure Benzene**: The demand for derivatives has not reversed, and the inventory of pure benzene remains at a high level [38]. 3.3 Polymer Demand Overview - **Styrene Downstream - ABS**: In the off - season, demand is weak, and profits are shrinking [52]. - **Styrene Downstream - PS**: The production profit is weak, and demand has entered the off - season [64]. - **Styrene Downstream - EPS**: Inventory continues to accumulate [75]. - **Pure Benzene - Aniline**: The output has declined, and the gross profit has rebounded [87]. - **Phenol**: The port inventory remains at a low level [97]. - **Adipic Acid**: Information about production profit, capacity utilization, etc. is presented in the relevant data charts [108]. - **Caprolactam**: The load has declined, and inventory has been depleted [119]. - **Household Appliances**: There is no obvious increase in demand [128].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 【甲醇专题（MA）】 卸货顺畅后累库，地缘风险持续加剧 国贸期货 能源化工研究中心 2026-01-05 卢钊毅 从业资格证号：F3171622 投资咨询证号：Z0021177 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议；期市有风险，投资需谨慎 甲醇：卸货顺畅后累库，地缘风险持续加剧 | 影响因素 | 驱动 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | 供给 | 中性 | 本周国内甲醇供给端呈国产、进口双减量态势。总供应量 248.50 万吨，环比降 3.10%；周产量 205.11 万吨，环比降 0.73%。新增西南气头装置检修、新疆天业减产，减产恢复 | | | | 量少于损失量，产能利用率降至 90.31%。进口量 43.39 万吨，环比大降 12.92%，下周进口预期窄幅增加。 | | 需求 | 利多 | 本周甲醇需求端整体增量。总消费量 240.15 万吨，环比增 1.85%；MTO 消费量 108.86 万吨，环比微降 0.08%。传统下游开工走低，交投清淡；中期受补空、刚需补货及内蒙古 | | | ...

Group 1 - The U.S. military conducted a large-scale military strike against Venezuela, capturing President Maduro and announcing plans for U.S. oil companies to invest billions in Venezuela's oil infrastructure [1] - Venezuela has the world's largest proven oil reserves at approximately 303 billion barrels, accounting for 17% of global reserves, but its daily oil production is currently below 1 million barrels [2][3] - Venezuela's oil production has sharply declined since 2017 due to U.S. sanctions, dropping from over 2 million barrels per day to around 300,000 barrels per day by 2020 [2] Group 2 - As of November 2025, Venezuela's oil production was 934,000 barrels per day, a month-on-month decrease of 2.3%, with an average annual production of 916,000 barrels per day, reflecting an 8.57% year-on-year increase [2] - In November 2025, Venezuela's oil export volume was 653,000 barrels per day, a month-on-month decrease of 16.71%, with an average annual export volume of 728,000 barrels per day, showing a 10.7% year-on-year increase [3] - The current geopolitical instability between the U.S. and Venezuela is likely to support oil prices in the short term, but ongoing developments need to be monitored [3] Group 3 - Venezuela's oil is primarily heavy and extra-heavy crude, which requires special processing and diluents for transportation and refining, resulting in higher extraction and operational costs compared to conventional light crude [3] - Prior to 2019, Venezuela was a key source of heavy oil for the U.S., but due to sanctions, imports have fallen to less than 100,000 barrels per day in 2025, with Canada and Mexico now being the top suppliers [4] - In 2025, WTI and Brent crude oil prices fell approximately 20% from the beginning of the year, influenced by OPEC+ production increases and oversupply in the oil market [4]

更深层的风险在于，此事件可能开启一个危险的先例。美国总统特朗普在事后暗示不排除对其他国家采取类似行动，甚至重提对格陵兰岛的领土兴趣，随即 招致丹麦政府的强烈抗议。这种"下一个会是谁？"的猜测，使得地缘政治风险溢价持续弥漫。与此同时，世界并未因此平静——俄罗斯国防部通报遭遇大规 模无人机袭击，显示俄乌冲突远未平息；中东局势依然紧张。多重地缘风险事件的叠加，共同构筑了黄金价格坚固的"防波堤"。根据当前安排，联合国安理 会定于美国东部时间5日上午10时（北京时间5日23时）在美国纽约的联合国总部，就美国对委内瑞拉采取军事行动举行紧急会议。当前被美国强行控制的委 总统马杜罗，预计也将于美东时间5日中午在纽约市的地区法院"首次出庭"。美方预计将就"毒品贩运"等内容对马杜罗提出指控。投资者需要继续保持关 注。 本周展望：地缘政治与就业数据双重考验，2026年美股开局迎变数。随着新年首个完整交易周的到来，金融市场正从假期平静中苏醒，并将面临委内瑞拉局 势与关键美国经济数据的双重考验。分析普遍认为，2026年可能将以波动开局，打破去年年末的窄幅震荡格局。地缘政治风险成为新焦点。美军抓捕委内瑞 拉总统马杜罗并可能接管该国的事件 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The report analyzes various sectors including agriculture, black metals, non - ferrous metals, shipping, and energy chemicals. Geopolitical events such as the US attack on Venezuela have significant impacts on commodity prices, and different sectors show diverse trends and investment opportunities based on their own fundamentals and market conditions [19][108]. - In the financial derivatives market, A - shares are expected to operate around the theme of a technology - powered nation, but risks such as over - opening and geopolitical factors need attention. The bond market may see sentiment repair after the implementation of new regulations, but the scope of repair is limited [19][23]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Financial Derivatives 3.1.1 Stock Index Futures - **Investment Logic**: A - shares showed a slow - bull trend at the end of 2025, with the PMI data above 50 adding market confidence. The potential listing of large companies is beneficial to the industrial chain. After the holiday, Hong Kong stocks rose, and A - shares are expected to focus on the technology - related sectors. Attention should be paid to risks such as over - opening, geopolitical issues, and institutional position adjustments [19]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading should be to buy on dips as the market is expected to rise; for arbitrage, wait for the spread of IM/IC to widen; for options, use a bull spread strategy [20]. 3.1.2 Treasury Futures - **Investment Logic**: The bond market was weak before the holiday. The new regulations on public - offering funds may repair the bond market sentiment, but the positive signals from the PMI data are negative for the bond market. The repair space of the bond market is limited due to factors such as strong fundamental expectations and supply - demand concerns for long - term bonds [21][22][23]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilaterally, close short positions of TS and TF contracts on dips; for arbitrage, wait and see [23]. 3.2 Agricultural Products 3.2.1 Protein Meal - **Logic Analysis**: International soybean cost faces pressure, especially with the improved weather in South America. Domestic soybean supply may decline, and the spot price may be supported. It is expected to oscillate [26]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilaterally, oscillate; for arbitrage, narrow the MRM spread; for options, sell a wide - straddle strategy [26]. 3.2.2 Sugar - **Logic Analysis**: Internationally, the supply pressure of Brazilian sugar will ease, and the market focuses on the northern hemisphere. The domestic sugar price is at a low level, with cost support and potential upward drive from the external market, but there is sales pressure during the peak crushing season [30]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilaterally, the international sugar price is expected to oscillate at the bottom, and the domestic sugar price is expected to oscillate. Wait and see for arbitrage and sell put options [32]. 3.2.3 Oilseeds and Oils - **Logic Analysis**: Geopolitical events may affect the oil market. The production of Malaysian palm oil in December is expected to decrease, but the inventory is high. Domestic soybean oil inventory is gradually decreasing, and rapeseed oil is affected by policies. The overall oil market lacks a clear driver [35]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilaterally, the oil market oscillates with increased volatility. For palm oil, short after a rebound; for soybean oil, follow the overall trend. Wait and see for arbitrage and options [35]. 3.2.4 Corn/Corn Starch - **Logic Analysis**: US corn is weak but may oscillate narrowly. In China, the supply in the Northeast is low with strong prices, while the supply in North China is increasing with weak prices. Wheat auctions may affect the corn market [38]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilaterally, the 03 - contract corn oscillates at the bottom and can be bought on dips, and the 07 - contract corn can be bought on dips. For arbitrage, narrow the spread between 03 - contract corn and starch; wait and see for options [38]. 3.2.5 Live Pigs - **Logic Analysis**: Pig prices have declined recently due to increased supply. The overall inventory is high, and there is still supply pressure [40]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilaterally, short positions can be taken; wait and see for arbitrage and sell a wide - straddle strategy for options [40]. 3.2.6 Peanuts - **Logic Analysis**: Peanut spot prices are stable, with a large price difference between Henan and the Northeast. The import volume has decreased, and the oil mill has profits. The 03 - contract peanut oscillates at the bottom [42]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilaterally, the 05 - contract peanut oscillates at the bottom and can be bought on dips; wait and see for arbitrage and sell the pk603 - C - 8200 option [42]. 3.2.7 Eggs - **Logic Analysis**: Egg demand is average, and prices are stable with a slight decline. The supply pressure has been relieved, and the near - month contract may oscillate weakly, while the far - month May contract can be considered for long positions on dips [46]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilaterally, the February contract is expected to oscillate, and the May contract can be bought on dips; wait and see for arbitrage and options [47]. 3.2.8 Apples - **Logic Analysis**: Apple production has decreased, and the cold - storage inventory is low. However, the market demand is weak, and prices are expected to oscillate [50]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilaterally, oscillate in the short term; for arbitrage, go long on the May contract and short on the October contract; wait and see for options [50]. 3.2.9 Cotton - Cotton Yarn - **Logic Analysis**: The planting area of Xinjiang cotton is expected to decrease, and the sales progress is fast. The improvement of Sino - US relations and the expansion of textile mills' capacity in Xinjiang support the cotton price. The market is bullish, but there may be short - term corrections [52]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilaterally, US cotton is expected to oscillate, and Chinese cotton is expected to rise slightly; wait and see for arbitrage and options [53]. 3.3 Black Metals 3.3.1 Steel - **Logic Analysis**: Steel raw materials are continuously restocked, and steel prices oscillate within a range. Steel production has increased, and inventory is decreasing. The demand for building materials is affected by the season, while the demand for hot - rolled coils is still growing. The export may decline in the short term [55]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilaterally, oscillate; for arbitrage, narrow the spread between hot - rolled coils and coking coal and between 03 - contract corn and starch; wait and see for options [56]. 3.3.2 Coking Coal and Coke - **Logic Analysis**: The contradiction in coking coal is not prominent, and the driving force is not obvious. The import of Mongolian coal may decrease in January, and the production of domestic coal will have seasonal fluctuations. The downstream winter - storage replenishment supports the price, but the upward driving force is insufficient [58]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilaterally, wait and see or go long on dips with a light position; wait and see for arbitrage and options [58]. 3.3.3 Iron Ore - **Logic Analysis**: The global iron ore shipment is stable, and the supply in China is abundant. The domestic demand for steel is declining, and the iron ore price is expected to oscillate [60]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilaterally, oscillate; wait and see for arbitrage and options [63]. 3.3.4 Ferroalloys - **Logic Analysis**: For ferrosilicon, the supply is decreasing slightly, the demand is expected to increase after the blast - furnace restart, and the cost is stable. For ferromanganese, the supply is stable, the demand is supported by the blast - furnace restart, and the cost is strong. Both are expected to oscillate strongly in the short term [63][64]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilaterally, oscillate strongly in the short term; wait and see for arbitrage and sell out - of - the - money put options for options [64]. 3.4 Non - Ferrous Metals 3.4.1 Gold and Silver - **Logic Analysis**: During the holiday, the US macro data and margin adjustments put pressure on gold and silver, but geopolitical issues increase the safe - haven demand, and they may oscillate strongly at a high level [67]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilaterally, go long on SHFE gold and silver cautiously if they break through the 5 - day moving average; wait and see for arbitrage and options [69]. 3.4.2 Platinum and Palladium - **Logic Analysis**: Geopolitical events may cause fluctuations in platinum and palladium. The fundamentals of platinum are tight, and it can be considered for long positions. Palladium may follow platinum. The domestic premium has shrunk, and attention should be paid to the rebound after over - selling [70][71]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilaterally, go long on platinum and palladium on dips based on the 5 - day moving average; for arbitrage, go long on platinum and short on palladium; wait and see for options [72]. 3.4.3 Copper - **Logic Analysis**: The US attack on Venezuela may slightly boost the copper price. The copper price has risen rapidly, leading to a decline in consumption and inventory accumulation. The long - term trend is upward, and it can be bought on dips [74]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilaterally, buy on dips; wait and see for arbitrage and options [74]. 3.4.4 Alumina - **Logic Analysis**: The profit of alumina warehouse - receipt registration has converged, and it is expected to oscillate. The futures "reservoir" function has been reflected, and attention should be paid to the digestion of warehouse receipts [77]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilaterally, oscillate in the short term; wait and see for arbitrage and options [78]. 3.4.5 Electrolytic Aluminum - **Logic Analysis**: The global shortage of aluminum and the domestic subsidy policy support the aluminum price. The domestic spot discount is large, and inventory may increase. It is recommended to go long on dips [79][80]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilaterally, go long on dips; for arbitrage, consider buying physical delivery products and shorting futures; wait and see for options [80]. 3.4.6 Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Logic Analysis**: The 2026 subsidy policy is better than expected. The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, and the cost supports the price. The demand is weak, and the trading is light [81]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilaterally, oscillate strongly with the sector; wait and see for arbitrage and options [82]. 3.4.7 Zinc - **Logic Analysis**: The shortage of domestic zinc ore is partially relieved, the smelting profit is good, and the supply may increase slightly. The downstream consumption is weak but has resilience. The price is expected to oscillate with the non - ferrous metal sector [84][85]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilaterally, oscillate widely; wait and see for arbitrage and options [86]. 3.4.8 Lead - **Logic Analysis**: The supply of lead is weak due to the shortage of lead ore and recycled lead raw materials. The demand has resilience, and the inventory is low. The price is expected to oscillate within a range [87]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilaterally, go long on dips; wait and see for arbitrage and options [91]. 3.4.9 Nickel - **Logic Analysis**: The expectation of quota reduction in Indonesia may boost the nickel price, but the US attack on Venezuela may be negative for the non - ferrous metal sector. The price may rise before significant inventory accumulation [92]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilaterally, consider the upward trend before significant inventory accumulation; wait and see for arbitrage and options [93]. 3.4.10 Stainless Steel - **Logic Analysis**: The expectation of nickel - ore quota reduction and tight hot - rolled resources support the stainless - steel price. The inventory is decreasing, but the export may be affected by the EU's CBAM policy. The price follows the nickel price but has limited upward drive [94]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilaterally, follow the nickel price; wait and see for arbitrage [95]. 3.4.11 Industrial Silicon - **Logic Analysis**: The demand for industrial silicon is in the off - season, and the supply is slightly reduced. The short - term price is strong, but the medium - term price may decline [98]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilaterally, sell on rallies; for arbitrage, go long on polysilicon and short on industrial silicon; sell out - of - the - money call options for options [98]. 3.4.12 Polysilicon - **Logic Analysis**: The photovoltaic industry's self - discipline and production control support the long - term price of polysilicon. The short - term futures trading volume is low, and attention should be paid to risk management [99]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilaterally, participate cautiously and control risks; for arbitrage, go long on polysilicon and short on industrial silicon; sell put options for options [99]. 3.4.13 Lithium Carbonate - **Logic Analysis**: The price of lithium carbonate is at a high level. The US attack on Venezuela may affect the market, and the supply and demand are relatively balanced. Attention should be paid to risk control [100][101]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilaterally, operate cautiously and control positions; wait and see for arbitrage and options [102]. 3.4.14 Tin - **Logic Analysis**: Geopolitical turmoil may increase the volatility of the tin price. The domestic supply is tight, and the demand is in the off - season. The price may oscillate widely [104]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilaterally, the price may oscillate widely after a significant decline; wait and see for options [104]. 3.5 Shipping 3.5.1 Container Shipping - **Logic Analysis**: Some shipping companies plan to raise prices in mid - January. The market has different views on the price peak and adjustment rhythm. The demand is expected to improve, and the supply will change. The US attack on Venezuela may affect fuel costs and trade patterns [105]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilaterally, close most long positions of the EC2602 contract on rallies and hold a small position; wait and see for arbitrage [106]. 3.6 Energy and Chemicals 3.6.1 Crude Oil - **Logic Analysis**: Geopolitical events in Venezuela increase the supply - side disturbance of crude oil. The short - term supply may be affected, but the long - term supply may increase. The price is expected to oscillate widely [109]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilaterally, oscillate widely; for arbitrage, gasoline is strong, diesel is weak, and the crude - oil time - spread rebounds; wait and see for options [109]. 3.6.2 Asphalt - **Logic Analysis**: The US capture of Maduro has increased the risk of raw - material supply disruption. In the short term, the near - month contract may be strong, and in the long term, the cost may rise [112]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilaterally, it may open higher on Monday, but be cautious about chasing the rise; wait and see for arbitrage and options [113]. 3.6.3 Fuel Oil - **Logic Analysis**: Geopolitical events may drive up the price of fuel oil in the short term. The high - sulfur fuel oil is expected to be weak in the fourth quarter, and the low - sulfur fuel oil supply is expected to increase [114][115]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilaterally, oscillate strongly in the short term, be cautious about geopolitical risks; for arbitrage, consider the FU59 positive spread; wait and see for options [116]. 3.6.4 Natural Gas - **Logic Analysis**: The cold weather in Europe supports the price in the short term, but the long - term trend is downward. The temperature in the US is expected to rise, and the HH price may decline [118]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilaterally, sell Q3 JKM/TTF contracts; wait and see for arbitrage and options [118]. 3.6.5 LPG - **Logic Analysis**: The increase in Saudi CP prices supports the domestic LPG price, but the high import price and high inventory pressure may limit the upward space [120]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilaterally, go short on the far - month contract; wait and see for arbitrage and options [122]. 3.6.6 PX & PTA - **Logic Analysis**: The cost of PX and PTA has increased, and the production reduction of polyester yarn is gradually implemented. The supply and demand of PTA have improved marginally, but the upward drive may weaken [123][124]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilaterally, oscillate strongly; for arbitrage, consider the positive spread of PX & PTA 3 and 5 contracts; wait and see for options [124]. 3.6.7 BZ