Group 1: Gold Market Insights - On August 28, Shanghai gold futures closed at 783.22 CNY per gram, with a daily increase of 0.21% and a trading volume of 135,834 lots [1] - The spot price of gold in Shanghai was quoted at 780.03 CNY per gram, indicating a discount of 3.19 CNY per gram compared to the futures price [1] - International gold price was recorded at 3,396.59 USD per ounce, reflecting a 0.1% increase, with a morning low of 3,373 USD [4] Group 2: Economic and Geopolitical Factors - John Williams, President of the New York Federal Reserve, indicated that interest rates may decrease at some point, but policymakers need to review upcoming economic data before making decisions regarding a potential rate cut in the September 16-17 meeting [1] - Venezuelan President Maduro claimed that the country faces direct threats from nuclear submarines, asserting that Venezuela will defend its independence and territorial integrity against foreign threats [1] Group 3: Institutional Perspectives - Jinrui Futures noted that concerns over the independence of the Federal Reserve have weakened the dollar, and dovish comments from the U.S. market have helped gold prices recover, influenced by inflation and economic data affecting rate cut expectations [3] - Recommendations for trading strategies include buying AU2512C776 and selling AU2512C792 to construct a bull spread strategy [5]

Gold - The independence of the Federal Reserve is threatened as President Trump attempts to dismiss Fed Governor Cook, leading to market concerns reflected in the selling of U.S. Treasuries and rising bond yields, particularly in the 30-year Treasury [1] - The risk of stagflation is increasing, with rising long-term bond yields expected to push inflation higher while slowing economic growth [1] - Recent events surrounding Trump's dismissal of a Fed official are unprecedented in U.S. history and are likely to weaken the Fed's independence, which could favor gold prices due to political turmoil and rising rate cut expectations [1] - Technically, gold rebounded from $3320, with potential upward movement towards $3409 or a downward test of support at $3350 if it breaks below $3384 [1] Oil - The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported a decrease in crude oil inventories by 2.392 million barrels, compared to a previous decrease of 6.014 million barrels and an expectation of a 1.863 million barrel decrease, which is bullish for oil prices [2] - The end of the U.S. driving season and the reduction in oil inventories help alleviate concerns about oversupply [2] - The ongoing tariff battle between the U.S. and India is significant, with Trump raising tariffs on Indian goods to 50%, pressuring India to reduce its purchases of Russian oil [2] - Technically, oil prices rebounded from around $63, with a potential upward target of $65 if it breaks above $64.20, while a drop below $63 would lead to a focus on $61.80 support [2] U.S. Dollar Index - New York Fed President Williams indicated that risks are becoming balanced, suggesting potential actions in future Fed meetings, which may hint at rate cuts and increase the likelihood of a weaker dollar [3] - The dollar is influenced by two main factors: expectations of Fed rate cuts and threats to the Fed's independence, which could exacerbate market volatility [3] - Technically, the dollar has been experiencing significant short-term fluctuations, with a downward trend from around 100, currently oscillating between 97.50 and 98.80, indicating a higher probability of further declines [3] Nikkei 225 - The Nikkei 225 index has been in a corrective phase since last week, finding support around 42120 and continuing its rebound [5] - The index faces resistance at 43200, and if it breaks this level, it may target the previous high of 43900, while support is noted at 42500 [5] Copper - Copper prices experienced a significant drop at the end of July, reversing previous gains, and have since maintained low-level fluctuations with weak rebound strength [6] - The resistance level at $4.50 is critical; failure to break above this could lead to a new round of declines [6] - Currently, copper is trading within a range of $4.32 to $4.50, suggesting a trading strategy of shorting at the high and going long at the low until a breakout occurs [6]

Group 1 - The latest LPR in China remains unchanged at 3.0% for 1-year and 3.5% for 5-year, consistent for three consecutive months, aligning with market expectations [1] - The U.S. manufacturing PMI for August reached 53.3, the highest since May 2022, significantly exceeding the expected 49.5, indicating strong manufacturing recovery [2] - The People's Bank of China announced a 600 billion MLF operation on August 25, with a net injection of 300 billion, marking the sixth consecutive month of increased liquidity [1][6] Group 2 - DeepSeek-V3.1 has been officially released, featuring enhanced agent capabilities and higher efficiency, with an increase in API call prices [2] - The U.S. and EU have reached a new trade agreement, with the U.S. imposing a 15% tariff on most EU goods, while the EU will eliminate tariffs on U.S. industrial products [4] - The U.S. is investigating tariffs on imported furniture, with a decision expected in 50 days [4] Group 3 - The U.S. Federal Reserve's July meeting minutes revealed a consensus against interest rate cuts, with most officials concerned about inflation risks [3] - The U.S. President indicated potential military involvement in Ukraine peacekeeping, while Ukraine plans to purchase $100 billion in military equipment from the U.S. [2][3] Group 4 - Recent data shows a decline in land transaction area and a decrease in housing transaction volume, indicating a weak performance in the real estate sector [9] - The automotive sector maintains high sales levels, with wholesale and retail sales growth rates of 12.08% and 6.10% respectively in July [10] Group 5 - The agricultural product prices have shown a slight increase, with vegetable prices rising while fruit prices have decreased [14] - The industrial product index has decreased, with coal, oil, aluminum, and cement prices rising, while copper and steel prices have fallen [16] Group 6 - The bond market has seen an increase in credit bond rates, with the 3Y AA+ rate rising by 11 basis points, indicating pressure on the bond market due to increased risk appetite [33][39] - The issuance of government bonds remains high, with a net issuance of 378.74 billion [35]

Group 1: Report Core View - The expectation of interest rate cuts continues to heat up, driving precious metal prices to fluctuate at high levels. The market's risk aversion sentiment has significantly increased due to doubts about the Fed's independence, supporting the safe - haven premium of gold. Silver's trading logic is mainly driven by the future easing expectation, and it is expected to continue the upward trend with the regression logic of the gold - silver ratio [1][8] Group 2: Market Analysis - New York Fed President Williams said that it is appropriate to cut interest rates at the right time, strengthening the market's expectation of future easing. U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent will interview 11 "very strong" candidates for the Fed Chairman starting next month, and the selection will be announced this fall. The Trump administration is studying a plan to exert more influence on the 12 regional Fed banks [1] Group 3: Futures Quotes and Volumes - On August 27, 2025, the opening price of the Shanghai Gold main contract was 780.68 yuan/gram, closing at 781.16 yuan/gram, a change of 0.01% from the previous trading day. The night - session closing price was 784.16 yuan/gram, a 0.38% increase from the afternoon closing. The opening price of the Shanghai Silver main contract was 9300.00 yuan/kilogram, closing at 9305.00 yuan/kilogram, a change of - 0.52% from the previous trading day. The night - session closing price was 9327 yuan/kilogram, a 0.24% decrease from the afternoon closing [2] Group 4: U.S. Treasury Yield and Spread Monitoring - On August 27, 2025, the U.S. 10 - year Treasury rate closed at 4.234%, remaining flat from the previous trading day. The 10 - year and 2 - year spread was 0.623%, also remaining flat [3] Group 5: Position and Volume Changes on the SHFE - On August 27, 2025, on the Au2508 contract, both long and short positions changed by 0 hands. The total trading volume of gold contracts was 192052 hands, a change of 8.75% from the previous trading day. On the Ag2508 contract, long positions changed by 2 hands, and short positions changed by - 2 hands. The total trading volume of silver contracts was 447460 hands, a change of - 5.65% from the previous trading day [4] Group 6: Precious Metal ETF Position Tracking - The gold ETF position was 962.5 tons, an increase of 2.58 tons from the previous trading day. The silver ETF position was 15274.7 tons, a decrease of 14.12 tons from the previous trading day [5] Group 7: Precious Metal Arbitrage Tracking - On August 27, 2025, the domestic gold premium was - 10.85 yuan/gram, and the domestic silver premium was - 740.85 yuan/kilogram. The price ratio of the SHFE gold and silver main contracts was about 83.95, a change of 0.53% from the previous trading day. The foreign - market gold - silver ratio was 87.79, a change of - 1.49% from the previous trading day [6] Group 8: Fundamental Data - On August 27, 2025, the trading volume of gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange T + d market was 27306 kilograms, a change of - 0.91% from the previous trading day. The trading volume of silver was 354762 kilograms, a change of 30.65% from the previous trading day. The gold delivery volume was 8614 kilograms, and the silver delivery volume was 330 kilograms [7] Group 9: Strategy - Gold: Cautiously bullish. The gold price is expected to be in a volatile and upward - trending pattern, with the Au2510 contract oscillating between 760 yuan/gram and 810 yuan/gram. - Silver: Cautiously bullish. The silver price is expected to continue the upward trend, with the Ag2508 contract oscillating between 9100 yuan/kilogram and 9600 yuan/kilogram. - Arbitrage: Short the gold - silver ratio at high levels. - Options: Postpone [8]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The domestic commodity futures market showed a widespread decline, with the stock index sector generally falling [1]. - Overseas, after the global central bank summit, the expectation of a September interest rate cut has further strengthened, and the overseas macro - monetary situation is expected to become looser, entering a "loose expectation + weak dollar" repair channel [6]. - In the short term, the high - spirited market sentiment in the domestic market may continue as it approaches important events in early September. After these events, the domestic market may enter the verification period of the seasonal peak season for fixed - asset investment and consumption, and the fundamental factors may play a more important role in pricing assets, especially short - duration commodity assets. The current differentiation between capital and fundamental performance may lead to increased short - term market volatility [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro Highlights - **Overseas Macro**: The US economic fundamentals remain stable in the short term, but there are still employment and inflation pressures in the medium term. The market's expectation of interest rate cuts is strengthening. The consumer confidence in the US deteriorated in August, and inflation concerns rose again. In the real estate sector, new housing starts increased steadily in July, while building permits continued to decline [6]. - **Domestic Macro**: The profits of Chinese industrial enterprises have improved, and Shanghai has optimized and adjusted real estate policies. From January to July 2025, the cumulative year - on - year decline in the profits of national large - scale industrial enterprises narrowed to - 1.7% from - 1.8%, and the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of operating income was 2.3%. The probability of a significant decline in external demand has decreased, and domestic demand such as consumption and investment is still at a reasonable level. The capital market remains loose [6]. - **Asset Views**: In the short term, the domestic market may maintain high - spirited sentiment until after important events in early September. Then, the fundamental factors may have a greater impact on asset pricing. Overseas, the expectation of interest rate cuts in September is strengthening, and the overseas macro - monetary situation is expected to become looser. The current market may face increased short - term volatility [6]. 3.2 Viewpoint Highlights 3.2.1 Financial Sector - **Stock Index Futures**: Leveraged funds are crowded, and there is a rush to take profits. The short - term judgment is a volatile upward trend, with attention paid to the decline in incremental funds [7]. - **Stock Index Options**: There is strong betting on the put side. The short - term judgment is a volatile upward trend, with attention paid to the deterioration of option market liquidity [7]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The capital market remains loose, and the yield curve is steepening. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, with attention paid to unexpected changes in tariffs, supply, and monetary easing [7]. 3.2.2 Precious Metals - **Gold/Silver**: The expectation of an interest rate cut in the US in September is expanding, which is beneficial to prices. The short - term judgment is a volatile upward trend, with attention paid to the US fundamental performance, the Fed's monetary policy, and the global equity market trend [7]. 3.2.3 Shipping - **Container Shipping to Europe**: The peak season in the third quarter is fading, and there is a lack of upward momentum due to loading pressure. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, with attention paid to the rate of freight rate decline in September [7]. 3.2.4 Black Building Materials - **Steel Products**: The real - world support is limited, and the futures price is under pressure. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, with attention paid to the progress of special bond issuance, steel exports, and iron - making output [7]. - **Iron Ore**: Market sentiment has weakened, and the fundamentals have changed little. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, with attention paid to overseas mine production and shipping, domestic iron - making production, weather conditions, port ore inventory changes, and policy dynamics [7]. - **Coke**: Supply is restricted in some regions, and the eighth round of price increases is emerging. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, with attention paid to steel mill production, coking costs, and macro - sentiment [7]. - **Coking Coal**: Market sentiment has declined, and the futures price has回调 significantly. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, with attention paid to steel mill production, coal mine safety inspections, and macro - sentiment [7]. - **Silicon Ferroalloy**: The black chain is showing a weak trend, and the futures price is under pressure. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, with attention paid to raw material costs and steel procurement [7]. - **Manganese Ferroalloy**: The sector is in a downward adjustment, and the futures price is weakly volatile. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, with attention paid to cost prices and foreign market quotes [7]. - **Glass**: The commodity market sentiment has cooled, and the price is fluctuating. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, with attention paid to spot sales [7]. - **Soda Ash**: Supply has decreased in the short term, while rigid demand remains stable. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, with attention paid to soda ash inventory [7]. - **Copper**: The suspension of tariffs between China and the US has been extended, and the copper price is oscillating at a high level. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, with attention paid to supply disruptions, unexpected domestic policies, less - than - expected dovishness of the Fed, less - than - expected recovery of domestic demand, and economic recession [7]. - **Alumina and Aluminum**: The alumina price is under pressure due to weak and stable spot prices and increasing warehouse receipts. The aluminum price is oscillating at a high level with a slight increase in social inventory. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, with attention paid to unexpected delays in ore production resumption, unexpected increases in electrolytic aluminum production resumption, extreme sector trends, macro - risks, supply disruptions, and less - than - expected demand [7]. - **Zinc**: The zinc price has oscillated and declined due to the fall in black - series prices. The short - term judgment is a volatile downward trend, with attention paid to macro - turning risks and unexpected increases in zinc ore supply [7]. - **Lead**: The consumption situation is still unclear, and the lead price has oscillated and declined. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, with attention paid to supply - side disruptions, slowdown in battery exports, unexpected macro and geopolitical changes, Indonesian policy risks, and unexpected delays in supply release [7]. - **Nickel**: Market sentiment is fluctuating, and the nickel price is oscillating widely. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, with attention paid to supply - side disruptions, slowdown in battery exports, unexpected macro and geopolitical changes, Indonesian policy risks, and unexpected delays in supply release [7]. - **Stainless Steel**: The nickel - iron price has continued to rise, and the stainless - steel futures price has回调. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, with attention paid to Indonesian policy risks and unexpected increases in demand [7]. - **Tin**: The raw material supply is still tight, and the tin price is oscillating at a high level. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, with attention paid to the expected resumption of production in Wa State and changes in demand improvement expectations [7]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The coal price is fluctuating, and the silicon price is continuously volatile. The short - term judgment is a volatile upward trend, with attention paid to unexpected production cuts on the supply side and unexpected increases in photovoltaic installations [7]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The multi - empty game continues, and the price is oscillating widely. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, with attention paid to less - than - expected demand, supply disruptions, and new technological breakthroughs [7]. 3.2.5 Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Supply pressure persists, and the sustainability of the rebound is expected to be limited. The short - term judgment is a volatile downward trend, with attention paid to OPEC + production policies and the Middle East geopolitical situation [9]. - **LPG**: The cracking spread has stabilized, and attention should be paid to cost - side guidance. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, with attention paid to cost - side developments such as crude oil and overseas propane [9]. - **Asphalt**: The asphalt futures price has oscillated and declined due to the fall in crude oil prices. The short - term judgment is a downward trend, with attention paid to sanctions and supply disruptions [9]. - **High - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The high - sulfur fuel oil price has risen and then fallen. The short - term judgment is a downward trend, with attention paid to geopolitical factors and crude oil prices [9]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The low - sulfur fuel oil futures price has followed the crude oil price and oscillated downward. The short - term judgment is a downward trend, with attention paid to crude oil prices [9]. - **Methanol**: The port inventory has accumulated, but short - term petrochemical news has provided a boost. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, with attention paid to macro - energy factors and upstream and downstream device dynamics [9]. - **Urea**: Domestic supply and demand cannot provide strong support, and the export - driven effect is less than expected. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, with attention paid to export policy trends and the elimination of production capacity [9]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The low inventory level coincides with the peak - season expectation, providing strong support for the price. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, with attention paid to fluctuations in coal and oil prices, port inventory rhythm, and unexpected device shutdowns [9]. - **PX**: The price is driven by emotional factors and the peak - season effect. The short - term judgment is a volatile upward trend, with attention paid to significant fluctuations in crude oil prices, unexpected macro - changes, and less - than - expected peak - season demand [9]. - **PTA**: Supply is decreasing while demand is increasing, and there is an expectation of inventory reduction from August to October. The short - term judgment is a volatile upward trend, with attention paid to significant fluctuations in crude oil prices, unexpected macro - changes, and less - than - expected peak - season demand [9]. - **Short - Fiber**: The peak season for terminal products has started, and yarn mills are mainly focused on capital recovery. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, with attention paid to the purchasing rhythm of downstream yarn mills and unexpected device production cuts [9]. - **Bottle Chips**: The inventory has decreased, but the processing margin is under pressure due to the strong performance of upstream products. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, with attention paid to unexpected production increases by bottle - chip enterprises and a surge in overseas export orders [9]. - **Propylene**: The price is mainly following the PP price in the short term. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, with attention paid to oil prices and domestic macro - factors [9]. - **PP**: The price is fluctuating due to news from Zhonghan Petrochemical, but the fundamental support is limited. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, with attention paid to oil prices and domestic and foreign macro - factors [9]. - **Plastic**: The plastic price has strengthened slightly due to news from the petrochemical industry. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, with attention paid to oil prices and domestic and foreign macro - factors [9]. - **Styrene**: The commodity market sentiment has improved, and attention should be paid to the implementation of policy details. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, with attention paid to oil prices, macro - policies, and device dynamics [9]. - **PVC**: The market sentiment has been boosted, and the PVC price has weakly stabilized. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, with attention paid to expectations, costs, and supply [9]. - **Caustic Soda**: The spot price rebound has slowed down, and short - term long positions have taken profits. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, with attention paid to market sentiment, production start - up, and demand [9]. - **Oils and Fats**: The price is continuing to adjust in a volatile manner, and attention should be paid to the effectiveness of the technical support below. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, with attention paid to US soybean weather and Malaysian palm oil production and demand data [9]. - **Protein Meal**: The domestic market has declined due to state - reserve auctions, and the domestic market is weaker than the overseas market. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, with attention paid to US soybean weather, domestic demand, macro - factors, and China - US and China - Canada trade disputes [9]. - **Corn/Starch**: The decline in the spot price has slowed down, and the futures price has rebounded slightly. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, with attention paid to less - than - expected demand, macro - factors, and weather conditions [9]. - **Hogs**: The supply of hogs is abundant, and the price is oscillating at a low level. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, with attention paid to breeding sentiment, epidemics, and policies [9]. 3.2.6 Agriculture - **Rubber**: The rubber price has declined following the market atmosphere, with little change in its own fundamentals. The short - term judgment is a volatile upward trend, with attention paid to产区 weather, raw material prices, and macro - changes [9]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: The futures price has followed the natural rubber price and weakened. The short - term judgment is a volatile upward trend, with attention paid to significant fluctuations in crude oil prices [9]. - **Pulp**: The price has continued to decline, possibly due to pricing based on spruce. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, with attention paid to macro - economic changes and fluctuations in US dollar - based quotes [9]. - **Cotton**: The low inventory level combined with improved demand provides strong support for the short - term cotton price. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, with attention paid to demand and inventory [9]. - **Sugar**: The supply pressure has increased marginally, and the sugar price has continued to decline. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, with attention paid to imports [9]. - **Logs**: The delivery pressure in the September contract is relatively large, dragging down the far - month contracts. The short - term judgment is a volatile downward trend, with attention paid to shipment volume and dispatch volume [9].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information provided. Core Views of the Report - The overall market shows a complex situation with different trends in various sectors. Policy factors, supply - demand relationships, and market sentiment all have significant impacts on prices. For example, the Fed's stance affects the prices of precious metals and non - ferrous metals, and the "anti -内卷" policy impacts the iron alloy market. In the short term, most sectors are expected to be volatile, and investors need to pay attention to policy changes, supply - demand dynamics, and market sentiment [3][6][33] Summaries by Related Catalogs Macro - Financial Stock Index - **News**: The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology promotes the application of satellite - connected terminal devices; global hedge funds increase their bets on Chinese stocks in August; 14 wealth management companies see a net increase of about 1.8 trillion yuan in management scale in July; Zhongji Xuchuang expects mass production and shipment of 1.6T products and samples of liquid - cooled products [2] - **Futures Basis Ratio**: Different contracts of IF, IC, IM, and IH have different basis ratios. The trading logic is that although the market may fluctuate in the short term after continuous rises, the general direction is to go long on dips [3] Treasury Bond - **Market**: On Wednesday, the main contracts of TL, T, TF, and TS all rose. The national industrial enterprise profit from January to July decreased by 1.7% year - on - year, and the Ministry of Commerce will introduce policies to promote service exports. The central bank conducted 4058 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 1745 billion yuan [4] - **Strategy**: The economy shows resilience in the first half of the year, but July's social financing and credit data are weaker than expected. Exports may face pressure. With the central bank's support, funds are expected to be loose. Interest rates may decline, but the stock - bond seesaw effect needs attention, and the bond market may be volatile in the short term [6] Precious Metals - **Market**: Shanghai gold and silver, COMEX gold and silver all rose. The New York Fed Chairman's neutral - dovish stance increases the probability of a Fed rate cut. The market expects a 25 - basis - point rate cut in September and December. Historically, gold benefits from fiscal deficits, and silver is driven by Fed easing expectations. It is recommended to go long on silver at low prices [7][8] Non - Ferrous Metals Copper - **Market**: LME copper and Shanghai copper prices decline. LME copper inventory increases, and domestic copper inventory shows different trends. The Fed's dovish stance increases the probability of a September rate cut, but the equity market's optimism fades. Copper prices are expected to be strong and volatile [10][11] Aluminum - **Market**: LME aluminum and Shanghai aluminum prices decline. Domestic aluminum inventory is low, and demand is expected to improve as the off - season transitions to the peak season. The Fed's dovish signal strengthens the expectation of a September rate cut. Aluminum prices are expected to be supported in the short term [12] Zinc - **Market**: Shanghai zinc index rises slightly, and LME zinc falls. Zinc ore inventory rises, and refined zinc imports decrease. The Fed's dovish stance strengthens the support for zinc prices, and it is difficult for zinc prices to fall significantly in the short term [13] Lead - **Market**: Shanghai lead index falls, and LME lead falls. Lead ore inventory rises slightly, and downstream demand recovers. In the short term, lead prices are supported, but there is a risk of decline in the medium term [14][16] Nickel - **Market**: Shanghai nickel price rises slightly. Nickel ore supply is loose, and stainless steel demand is weak. Although the macro environment is positive, the supply - demand situation restricts nickel price increases. Nickel prices are expected to be volatile in the short term [17] Tin - **Market**: Shanghai tin price rises slightly. Myanmar's tin production recovery is slow, and domestic tin smelting enterprises' operating rates are low. Electronic and photovoltaic demand is weak. Tin prices are expected to be volatile in the short term [18] Lithium Carbonate - **Market**: The spot index is flat, and the futures price falls. Lithium mica supply decreases, and the price has bottom support. The market awaits new drivers and needs to pay attention to overseas supply and industry news [19] Alumina - **Market**: The alumina index falls. Domestic and overseas ore supply disturbances support prices. The Fed's dovish stance drives the non - ferrous sector. The short - term decline space is limited, and it is recommended to wait and see [20] Stainless Steel - **Market**: The stainless steel futures price rises slightly. Social inventory increases, and short - term demand is weak. As the peak season approaches, demand is expected to improve [21] Casting Aluminum Alloy - **Market**: The AD2511 contract rises. The downstream is transitioning from the off - season to the peak season, and inventory increases. The cost is supportive, and market activity increases. However, the large futures - spot price difference may cause delivery pressure [22][23] Black Building Materials Steel - **Market**: The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil fall. The overall commodity market cools down. Steel production is high, demand is weak, and inventory accumulates. If demand does not improve, prices may continue to fall [25][26] Iron Ore - **Market**: The iron ore futures price falls slightly. Overseas iron ore shipments are stable, and port inventory rises slightly. Steel mill profitability declines, and iron water production growth is limited. Iron ore prices are expected to be volatile in the short term [27][28] Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass**: The spot price is stable, and inventory increases slightly. Although the fundamentals are under pressure, the price adjustment space is limited. In the short term, it is expected to be weakly volatile, and in the long term, it depends on policy and demand [29] - **Soda Ash**: The spot price is stable, and inventory decreases. The downstream glass industry's operating rate changes. Soda ash prices are expected to be volatile in the short term and may rise gradually in the long term, but the upside is limited [30] Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Market**: Manganese silicon and ferrosilicon prices fall. The "anti -内卷" sentiment fades, and the market is affected by emotions. It is recommended that speculative funds wait and see, and hedging funds can seize opportunities. Manganese silicon supply pressure remains, and ferrosilicon supply also rises [31][33][34] Industrial Silicon - **Market**: The industrial silicon futures price rises slightly. The industry has over - capacity, high inventory, and weak demand. The price is expected to be volatile, and attention should be paid to industry policies [35][36] Polysilicon - **Market**: The polysilicon futures price falls. The market is in a "weak reality, strong expectation" pattern. Production increases, and inventory transfers to the futures market. The price may adjust in the short term, and attention should be paid to demand and inventory pressure [37] Energy and Chemicals Rubber - **Market**: NR and RU are volatile. Bulls expect price increases due to seasonality and demand, while bears are concerned about uncertain macro expectations and weak demand. The medium - term view is bullish, and the short - term view is to be neutral - bullish [39][43] Crude Oil - **Market**: WTI and Brent crude oil futures rise, while INE crude oil futures fall. U.S. EIA data shows inventory changes. Although geopolitical premiums have disappeared and the macro situation is bearish, the current oil price is undervalued, and it is a good time for left - hand side layout [44] Methanol - **Market**: The methanol futures price falls. Coal prices rise, domestic and overseas supply increases, and demand is weak. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term and pay attention to positive spread opportunities in the future [45] Urea - **Market**: The urea futures price is stable. Supply pressure is high, and demand is weak. Exports are the main demand variable. The price is expected to be range - bound, and it is recommended to go long on dips [46] Styrene - **Market**: The styrene spot and futures prices fall. The BZN spread is low and has room for upward repair. Supply increases, and inventory accumulates. Demand is rising at the end of the off - season. The price may rebound when inventory decreases [47] PVC - **Market**: The PVC futures price falls. Supply is strong, demand is weak, and inventory is high. The cost support is weak. It is recommended to short on rallies [49] Ethylene Glycol - **Market**: The ethylene glycol futures price falls. Supply increases, and demand recovers from the off - season. The port inventory may accumulate in the medium term, and the valuation may decline [50] PTA - **Market**: The PTA futures price falls. Supply decreases due to unexpected maintenance, and demand improves. The processing fee is expected to repair, and it is recommended to go long on dips following PX [51] Para - Xylene - **Market**: The PX futures price falls. PX load is high, and downstream PTA has many unexpected maintenance. PX inventory is expected to be low, and the valuation has support. It is recommended to go long on dips following crude oil [52] Polyethylene (PE) - **Market**: The PE futures price falls. The market expects favorable policies from the Chinese Ministry of Finance. Inventory is high but decreasing, and demand may improve in the peak season. The price may rise in the long term [53] Polypropylene (PP) - **Market**: The PP futures price falls. Supply increases, and demand is weak. Inventory pressure is high. It is recommended to go long on the LL - PP2601 contract on dips [55] Agricultural Products Live Pig - **Market**: Pig prices mostly fall. The short - term logic is to relieve pressure through weight reduction. Policy support may suppress bearish sentiment, and the far - month contract has a reverse spread strategy [57] Egg - **Market**: Egg prices mostly rise. Supply is stable, and demand is slow. The supply - demand negative cycle remains. It is recommended to reduce short positions or short on rebounds [58] Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal - **Market**: U.S. soybeans fall slightly, and domestic soybean meal is weak. U.S. soybean production may decrease, but global supply is abundant. The domestic soybean meal market has strong supply and demand. It is recommended to go long on dips in the cost range [59][61] Edible Oils - **Market**: Domestic edible oils are volatile and weak. Malaysian palm oil exports increase, and production shows different trends. Domestic soybean oil inventory may increase, and rapeseed oil inventory may decrease. The price is expected to be strong and volatile [62][63] Sugar - **Market**: Zhengzhou sugar futures price falls. Brazil's sugar production may be affected by weather, and the international and domestic sugar supply is expected to increase. The price is likely to continue to fall [64][65] Cotton - **Market**: Zhengzhou cotton futures price is volatile. The downstream market may improve in the peak season, and domestic inventory is low. The price may rise in the short term [66]

根据公司2025年半年报，我们做出上调矿产金等相关产品销量和售价等调整，预测公司2025-2027年每股收益为1.47、1.72、2.04元(2025-2026年原预测值为1.17、1.26元)，根据可比 风险提示 受益于黄金价格强势上涨，公司业绩增长显著。公司25H1实现营业收入52.72亿元，同比增长25.64%，归母净利润11.07亿元，同比增长55.79%。业绩同比明显增长，主要原因在于黄金价格 聚焦资源储备提升，持续看好公司扩能潜力。公司不断加大探矿投入与勘查力度，夯实资源保障能力。子公司万象矿业于2025年6月末完成了SND金铜矿项目第一阶段资源勘探工作并编制了首次 降息预期进一步升温，黄金涨势或将持续，公司盈利有望延续增长。当地时间8月22日，美联储主席鲍威尔在杰克逊霍尔全球央行年会上指出，尽管通胀仍受关注，但就业市场风险上升可能使美 盈利预测与投资建议 公司矿产金产品的量、价、利润率不及预期的风险、美国二次通胀风险、商品价格波动风险、安全生产和环保风险、境外投资国别风险 ...

芦哲认为，美联储明年降息预期升温，而对美联储独立性的担忧预计令黄金价格阶段性维持高位、美债 期限溢价走阔。 从市场反馈来看，特朗普解雇库克的消息公布后，2年美债利率骤降，表明市场预期随着2026年5月美联 储轮换新主席，更多"特朗普派"的理事就职将令美联储明年的降息预期升温。与此同时，对美联储独立 性和美元信用的担忧也令10年期美债收益率上涨，美元指数一度由98.5下跌至98.1，黄金价格由3351美 元/盎司上涨至3377美元/盎司。 "资产价格的这一表现与今年7月16—17日特朗普威胁解雇鲍威尔风波时一致。当时，在17日特朗普否认 计划解雇鲍威尔、鲍威尔回应美联储相关工程符合规范后，市场迅速企稳。"芦哲表示，就此次而言， 美元指数已在下跌后迅速回稳，而黄金价格仍在高位，显示随着事件发酵而前景未明，市场对美联储独 立性的担忧仍未消除，预计后续法律层面的进展仍将对资产价格产生扰动。 东吴证券首席经济学家芦哲分析，当前美联储理事会中沃勒和鲍曼两位理事均由特朗普提名，未来如果 特朗普提名的新理事米兰能够获得参议院批准，并且在成功罢免库克后再提名另一位新理事，则理事会 中将有4人与特朗普立场一致，超过半数，特朗普对 ...

Group 1 - The market generally expects the Bank of England to maintain the key interest rate at 4% during the September meeting, but the outlook for interest rates has become uncertain, making it difficult for traders to gauge expectations [1] - Short-term, the market's expectations for a rate cut by the Bank of England have weakened, providing upward momentum for the British pound, as investors believe the Bank will adopt a more cautious approach for a longer period [1] - Analysts from ING suggest that the continued cooling of rate cut expectations supports short-term momentum for the pound, with the euro potentially falling below 0.86 against the pound [1] Group 2 - Recent economic data indicates that the UK economy continues to face challenges, with retail sales declining for the 11th consecutive month, and the CBI monthly retail sales balance slightly improving but remaining in negative territory [2] - Retailers are experiencing low sentiment and are facing cost and pricing challenges, with average sales price balances rising significantly, indicating that high cost pressures are forcing retailers to increase prices despite weak demand [2] - The UK economy is facing increasing inflationary pressures, with the Bank of England predicting the consumer price index to reach 4% by September, compounded by rising energy price caps affecting millions of households [2] Group 3 - The uncertainty surrounding interest rate prospects is highlighted by comments from Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee member Catherine Mann, who is inclined to keep rates unchanged for an extended period but is prepared to take more aggressive policy actions if domestic demand risks materialize [3] - Mann's views align with those of Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey, who noted the severe challenges posed by potential weak economic growth in the UK [3] - If the Bank of England implements aggressive easing policies in 2026, it could negatively impact the British pound [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The nickel and stainless steel markets are expected to be oscillating with an upward bias, and attention should be paid to the subsequent support from the new energy sector [1] - The intraday trend of nickel and stainless steel was oscillating, with limited improvement in fundamentals and a warming expectation of interest rate cuts in September at the macro - level. There were no obvious logical changes in fundamentals [5] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Price and Volatility Forecast - The price range forecast for Shanghai nickel is 118,000 - 126,000 yuan/ton, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 15.17% and a historical percentile of 3.2% [3] - The price range forecast for stainless steel is 12,500 - 13,100 yuan/ton, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 9.27% and a historical percentile of 1.8% [3] Risk Management Strategies Nickel - **Inventory Management**: When product sales prices fall and inventory has impairment risk, short Shanghai nickel futures (NI main contract) with a 60% hedging ratio and sell call options (over - the - counter/on - exchange options) with a 50% hedging ratio [3] - **Procurement Management**: When the company has future production procurement needs and is worried about rising raw material prices, buy Shanghai nickel forward contracts (far - month NI contracts) according to the production plan, sell put options (on - exchange/over - the - counter options), and buy out - of - the - money call options (on - exchange/over - the - counter options) [3] Stainless Steel - **Inventory Management**: When product sales prices fall and inventory has impairment risk, short stainless steel futures (SS main contract) with a 60% hedging ratio and sell call options (over - the - counter/on - exchange options) with a 50% hedging ratio [4] - **Procurement Management**: When the company has future production procurement needs and is worried about rising raw material prices, buy stainless steel forward contracts (far - month SS contracts) according to the production plan, sell put options (on - exchange/over - the - counter options), and buy out - of - the - money call options (on - exchange/over - the - counter options) [4] Market Situation Analysis Core Contradictions - The intraday trend of Shanghai nickel was oscillating, with limited fundamental improvement and a warming expectation of interest rate cuts in September at the macro - level. Indonesia is expected to slightly lower the first - phase benchmark price in September, with a firm premium. There was rainfall in some mining areas in the Philippines during the week, and there is an overall rainfall expectation in September, with limited overall impact. The price of nickel iron remained firm, and the new tender price of a large southern factory was 940 yuan/ton. The salt plants in the new energy chain were relatively strong, the MHP market was in short supply, and some traders raised the coefficient due to shortages. New energy vehicle sales remained strong, and subsequent support still existed. The intraday trend of stainless steel was also oscillating, some spot prices rose slightly, and attention should be paid to the sentiment trend approaching the peak demand season in September and October [5] Positive Factors - Indonesia's APNI plans to revise the HPM formula and include elements such as iron and cobalt - Indonesia shortens the nickel ore quota permit period from three years to one year - The construction of the Yarlung Zangbo River Hydropower Station may increase the demand for stainless steel - The expectation of interest rate cuts in September has increased [7] Negative Factors - Stainless steel has entered the traditional off - season of demand, and inventory reduction is slow - The inventory of pure nickel is high - The seasonal inventory of nickel ore has increased, and the bottom support has loosened - Sino - US tariff disturbances still exist - South Korea plans to impose anti - dumping duties on China's hot - rolled products [7] Market Data Nickel - **Futures Prices**: The closing price of the Shanghai nickel main contract was 121,760 yuan/ton, up 1390 yuan or 1% from the previous day; the closing price of Shanghai nickel continuous contract 1 was 120,370 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan or 0.05%; the closing price of Shanghai nickel continuous contract 2 was 120,480 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan or 0.02%; the closing price of Shanghai nickel continuous contract 3 was 120,700 yuan/ton, down 80 yuan or 0.02%; the LME nickel 3M price was 15,280 US dollars/ton, down 305 US dollars or 0.07% [7] - **Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume was 196,852 lots, up 108,077 lots or 121.74% from the previous day; the open interest was 98,903 lots, down 10,364 lots or 9.49% [7] - **Warehouse Receipts**: The number of warehouse receipts was 22,025 tons, down 61 tons or 0.28% [7] - **Basis**: The basis of the main contract was - 1040 yuan/ton, up 510 yuan or - 32.9% [7] Stainless Steel - **Futures Prices**: The closing price of the stainless steel main contract was 12,850 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan or 0% from the previous day; the closing price of stainless steel continuous contract 1 was 12,840 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan or - 0.31%; the closing price of stainless steel continuous contract 2 was 12,910 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan or - 0.23%; the closing price of stainless steel continuous contract 3 was 12,975 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan or 0.08% [8] - **Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume was 128,526 lots, up 25,799 lots or 25.11% from the previous day; the open interest was 128,304 lots, down 5355 lots or - 4.01% [8] - **Warehouse Receipts**: The number of warehouse receipts was 100,851 tons, down 175 tons or 0.17% [8] - **Basis**: The basis of the main contract was 630 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan or 6.78% [8] Industry Inventory - The domestic social inventory of nickel was 40,872 tons, down 1019 tons from the previous period - The LME nickel inventory was 209,220 tons, up 72 tons from the previous period - The stainless steel social inventory was 933.4 tons, down 0.2 tons from the previous period - The nickel pig iron inventory was 33,111 tons, down 304 tons from the previous period [9]