Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Supreme Court has not yet ruled on the legality of President Trump's global tariffs, leaving the fate of this significant economic policy uncertain until at least next week [1][2]. Group 1: Court Proceedings - The court has not indicated when it will release its next batch of opinions, but further rulings may be announced during the next session on Tuesday or Wednesday [3]. - The November 5 hearing suggests that the court is skeptical about Trump's authority to impose tariffs under the 1977 Emergency Powers Act [4]. Group 2: Market Reactions - Following the Supreme Court's failure to make a ruling, consumer stocks, including Lululemon and Mattel, experienced declines, while Stanley Black & Decker reversed earlier gains [3]. - A negative ruling against Trump could represent his most significant legal defeat since returning to the White House and may open the door for over $130 billion in tax refunds [4].

周三，美国最高法院并未就针对总统特朗普关税政策的法律挑战作出裁决，意味着全球市场仍需等待至 少到下周，才能知晓这项标志性经济政策的最终命运。 若最高法院最终裁定关税措施违法，这将成为特朗普重返白宫以来遭遇的最大法律挫败。本案焦点在于 特朗普于4月2日宣布的所谓"解放日"关税计划，该方案对大多数进口商品征收10%至50%不等的关税， 并以打击芬太尼贩运为由，对来自加拿大、墨西哥和中国的商品额外加征关税。 在上述背景下，市场开始更加关注裁决时间本身所释放的信号。分析人士指出，若最高法院的裁决持续 拖延、并延后至2月下旬之后，原本看似对特朗普政府不利的法律天平，反而可能出现微妙变化。 包括Evercore ISI在内的多家机构目前仍维持"特朗普政府可能败诉"的基准判断，但同时也提醒投资者注 意一个关键变量，时间。他们认为，裁决每延后一周，特朗普政府最终胜诉的概率就会上升一分。 最高法院尚未说明下一次发布裁决意见的具体时间，但法官们下周二或周三仍将继续开庭，届时不排除 公布相关决定的可能。 这一裁决对金融市场的潜在影响同样巨大。部分策略师担忧，一旦关税被取消，政策不确定性上升可能 对股市构成拖累；但也有观点认为，若关 ...

美国最高法院再次没能就特朗普关税政策的官司做出裁决。标普目前跌0.6%，纳指维持1%的跌幅，半 导体指数跌1.1%。 风险提示及免责条款 市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文不构成个人投资建议，也未考虑到个别用户特殊的投资目标、财务状况或需要。用户应考虑本文中的任何 意见、观点或结论是否符合其特定状况。据此投资，责任自负。 ...

美联储下次利率决议将于2026年1月27日—28日召开，虽然1月大概率不会降息，但交易员们加大了押注，认为美联储可能不会等到美联储主席鲍威尔5月任 期结束后再降息，4月降息的概率接近50%。 据CME"美联储观察"，美联储1月降息25个基点的概率为2.8%，维持利率不变的概率为97.2%。到3月累计降息25个基点的概率为26.8%，维持利率不变的概 率为72.5%，累计降息50个基点的概率为0.7%。 在CPI数据公布后，圣路易斯联储主席穆萨莱姆也表示，通胀风险正在缓和，他预计价格将在今年晚些时候开始向美联储的目标回归。穆萨莱姆指出，经过 去年的降息，美联储的货币政策已处于应对价格稳定或就业风险的良好位置。他表示，当前利率已接近中性水平，即既不刺激也不抑制经济，并重申在通胀 仍然偏高的情况下，没有进一步降息的必要。 随着美国2025年12月核心消费者价格涨幅低于预期，美联储今年预期降息时点有所提前。当地时间13日，美国劳工部发布的数据显示，2025年12月美国消费 者价格指数（CPI）同比上涨2.7%；剔除波动较大的食品和能源价格后，去年12月核心消费者价格指数同比上涨2.6%。 数据公布后，美国短期利率期货 ...

Group 1 - The core issue revolves around the escalating tensions between the US and Iran, exacerbated by Trump's recent tariff announcement which has created uncertainty in global trade relations [3][5][13] - The tariff policy is seen as a potential trigger for a chain reaction in international trade, reminiscent of previous threats that led to significant tariff increases between the US and India [5][10] - The legality of Trump's tariff measures is under scrutiny, as the Supreme Court is reviewing whether the administration can impose tariffs without Congressional approval [6][10] Group 2 - The US military presence in the Middle East remains a critical factor, with reports indicating that military options against Iran are being considered, despite the absence of aircraft carriers in the region [10][12] - Iran's response to US military threats includes preparing for potential retaliation against US and Israeli military bases, highlighting the delicate balance of power in the region [12][18] - The ongoing unrest in Iran, driven by economic issues such as inflation and currency devaluation, provides a backdrop for US pressure tactics, as Trump seeks to exploit this situation for political leverage [15][18] Group 3 - The international response to the US-Iran tensions is varied, with Russia expressing support for Iran and the EU concerned about the implications for global energy supplies [13][18] - There is a lack of consensus within the US regarding Trump's Iran policy, with some Congressional members pushing back against unilateral military action [13][16] - Despite indications of a willingness to negotiate from both sides, the immediate implementation of tariffs complicates the potential for successful diplomatic talks [16][18]

我们就完蛋了！这一句话出自特朗普口中，原因正是美国法院即将对关税政策做出裁决。然而，正是在 这番充满混乱与焦虑的言辞中，中国的稳定与从容反而成为了一股难得的确定性力量。为了更好理解特 朗普为何会如此绝望，我们需要理清这起关税风波的全貌。 面对如此天文数字，特朗普直言不讳地表示：这将是一团糟，我们的国家几乎不可能支付这些费用。他 甚至用完蛋了这一极为冲击的词语来形容可能的后果。要知道，2025年美国就将关税水平提高到了近百 年来的最高点，虽然短期内，由于人工智能投资热潮和扩张性财政政策的对冲，全球经济看似稳定，但 关税带来的结构性伤害却在悄然积累，并预计在2026年集中显现。更为关键的是，这些关税成本最终还 是要由美国本土承担。 在这样的经济压力下，若美国还要面临数万亿美元的赔偿，毫无疑问，美国经济将陷入前所未有的困 境，这也正是特朗普之所以发出如此绝望言论的核心原因。有趣的是，就在特朗普为可能的赔偿问题感 到恐慌的同时，他在真实社交上发布了另一条截然不同的推文，宣布即日起，任何与伊朗进行商业往来 的国家，在与美国进行商业活动时都将被征收25%的关税，并强调这一决定最终且不可更改。 一边是对现有关税政策可能带来 ...

Group 1 - The core issue revolves around Trump's tariff policy, which initially aimed to address trade deficits but ultimately led to legal challenges and potential financial repercussions for the U.S. government [1][3][5] - The Supreme Court is set to review the legality of Trump's tariffs, with concerns raised about the use of emergency powers to impose tariffs that traditionally fall under Congressional authority [3][6] - The potential financial impact of the court's decision could result in the government needing to refund $13.35 billion to importers if Trump's actions are deemed unlawful [5] Group 2 - The U.S. economy is projected to slow down significantly, with the IMF forecasting a growth rate of 1.8% for 2025, indicating a potential recession due to policy uncertainties and trade tensions [14] - The actual income of American households has decreased by an average of $600, affecting lower-income families the most amid rising prices [15] - In contrast to U.S. protectionism, China is adopting a more open trade policy, reducing tariffs on 935 items starting January 1, 2026, and offering zero tariffs to 43 least developed countries [17][20] Group 3 - The reliance on Chinese supply chains remains significant, with many U.S. companies unable to fully decouple from China despite relocating assembly operations to other countries [8][9][11] - The anticipated effects of tariffs will become more pronounced in 2026, as the initial buffer from pre-emptive stockpiling will end, leading to increased costs for U.S. businesses and consumers [12] - The ongoing trade tensions and tariff policies are seen as detrimental to the U.S. economy, contradicting Trump's initial goals of revitalizing American manufacturing and job creation [14][19] Group 4 - The global landscape is shifting towards regionalization rather than the end of globalization, highlighting the contrasting approaches of the U.S. and China in international trade [23]

Group 1: Inflation Overview - December inflation in the U.S. showed a moderate performance, confirming the downward trend in inflation despite concerns over November's data distortion due to government shutdown effects[4] - The overall CPI year-on-year growth remained stable at 2.7%, while the core CPI year-on-year growth was steady at 2.6%, both aligning with expectations[4] - The decline in energy prices, which fell from 4.2% in November to 2.3% in December, significantly contributed to the moderate inflation figures[5] Group 2: Price Dynamics - The prices of used cars, a key indicator, dropped from 3.6% in November to 1.6% in December, indicating a significant easing in core inflation pressures[5] - Food prices increased from 2.6% in November to 3.1% in December, driven by higher dining out costs and seasonal consumption effects[6] - Medical service prices rebounded to 3.5%, reflecting resilience in service consumption despite overall inflation moderation[6] Group 3: Future Inflation Outlook - The inflation trajectory for 2026 is expected to show moderate declines, influenced by tariff costs being passed to end prices, but countered by falling housing prices and energy prices due to oversupply[7] - The impact of tariffs is anticipated to peak in the first half of 2026, with inflation likely to rise initially before declining in the latter half of the year[7] Group 4: Federal Reserve Policy Implications - The moderate inflation data in December is unlikely to prompt the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates in January, as current policy rates are near neutral levels[8] - The labor market remains stable, with no significant deterioration, which does not support the case for further rate cuts[10] - Concerns regarding the independence of the Federal Reserve due to ongoing investigations may also deter premature rate cuts, as this could undermine market confidence[10]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall demand for logs is showing a contraction trend, with regional differentiation. The southern market may maintain a steady - to - rising price due to winter stockpiling, while the northern market is weakening. In the long - term, the log market is expected to oscillate at a low level. In the short - term, the 2603 contract is expected to maintain a range - bound oscillation, and in the medium - term, prices may weaken around the Spring Festival in 2026 [3][4][5] 3. Summary of Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Log Industry Data 3.1.1 Spot and Futures - Spot: The price of 3.9 - meter medium A radiata pine logs at Rizhao Port remained stable at 740 yuan/cubic meter compared to the previous period, and the price of 4 - meter medium A radiata pine logs at Taicang Port increased. The price of radiata pine logs in Jiangsu rose due to supply contraction and demand support. - Futures: As of January 13, the log main contract 2603 closed at 774.5 yuan/cubic meter, showing a strong oscillation. In early January 2026, the ocean freight for imported coniferous log bulk carriers (New Zealand → China) was 25 US dollars/JAS cubic meter, a 3.85% decrease compared to late December 2025 [2] 3.1.2 Supply - From January 3 - 9, 2026, a total of 9 ships with 350,000 cubic meters of logs departed from New Zealand ports, a decrease of 1 ship and 10,000 cubic meters compared to the previous period. Among them, 8 ships with 300,000 cubic meters were directly sent to China, an increase of 2 ships and 80,000 cubic meters. - Expected arrival volume at 13 ports this week (January 12 - 18, 2026): 13 New Zealand log ships are expected to arrive at 13 Chinese ports, an 18% increase compared to last week, with a total arrival volume of about 411,000 cubic meters, an 8% increase. - Actual arrival volume at 13 ports last week (January 5 - 11, 2026): 11 New Zealand log ships were expected to arrive at 13 Chinese ports, a 15% decrease compared to the previous week, with a total arrival volume of about 380,000 cubic meters, a 12% decrease. - In November 2025, the total import volume of Chinese coniferous logs was about 2.2295 million cubic meters, a 16.86% month - on - month increase and a 2.58% year - on - year increase. From January to November 2025, the total import volume was about 22.1533 million cubic meters, a 7.07% year - on - year decrease [2] 3.1.3 Inventory - As of January 13, the total domestic coniferous log inventory was 2.69 million cubic meters, an increase of 20,000 cubic meters compared to last week. The radiata pine inventory was 2.29 million cubic meters, an increase of 10,000 cubic meters; the North American timber inventory was 120,000 cubic meters, an increase of 20,000 cubic meters; the spruce/fir inventory was 130,000 cubic meters, a decrease of 10,000 cubic meters. - Overall, downstream demand is weak and stable, the arrival volume pressure is rising, and high arrival volumes are continuously pressuring port log inventory and spot prices. Inventory decreased in December due to reduced previous arrivals, but has started to accumulate since January [3] 3.1.4 Demand - From January 5 - 11, the average daily outbound volume of coniferous logs at 13 ports in 7 Chinese provinces was 57,500 cubic meters, a 1.77% increase compared to last week. Among them, the average daily outbound volume of coniferous logs at Shandong ports was 27,900 cubic meters, a 3.46% decrease; the average daily outbound volume at Jiangsu ports was 23,500 cubic meters, an 8.29% increase. - Downstream demand is suppressed by seasonal factors. The southern Yangtze River Delta region may maintain a steady - to - rising price due to winter stockpiling and low arrival pressure, but the increase is limited. The northern market is in the final stage before the holiday, with weakening demand and a possible weakening price trend [3] 3.1.5 Recent News and Outlook - China's import of radiata pine shows a trend of resource centralization, with an increasing proportion from New Zealand. However, the risk of over - reliance on a single source is accumulating. - Anti - involution policies have an indirect boost in the off - season. The downstream products of logs are also affected by the construction and manufacturing industries, and there is a high correlation between construction wood and coke. - The Sino - US Geneva Joint Statement in May may boost wood product exports, but the current terminal market is sluggish. The suspension of 24% reciprocal tariffs and counter - tariffs for 90 days in July has been extended, and there are still uncertainties in the export cost of Chinese wood products. - The EU Commission has imposed higher anti - dumping duties on hardwood plywood imported from China, and Mexico has made an affirmative preliminary anti - dumping ruling on cardboard from China. - China has lifted the suspension of importing US logs, but the short - term arrival and clearance volume will be limited. - New Zealand's log supply to China is expected to slow down before the Chinese Spring Festival, and there may be a slight increase in the new round of outer - market quotes [4] 3.1.6 Strategies and Suggestions - In summer from July to early September, the futures market rebounded significantly, but the market's long - term expectation for real estate demand was cautious, resulting in a near - strong and far - weak differentiation trend. - In the second half of the year, the near - and far - month contracts showed significant differentiation. The 2511 contract fell rapidly after the peak season, and the 2601 contract oscillated strongly at first and then fell. - In the short - term, the 2601 contract is oscillating at a low level, and the 2603 contract is relatively stronger. The outer - market quote for New Zealand radiata pine logs in January 2026 has slightly decreased, and the overall demand is expected to contract in the future. - In the medium - term, around the Spring Festival in 2026, the log price may weaken. Whether the main 2603 contract can improve depends on the real estate industry's support policies and the post - Spring Festival cost and demand recovery [5] 3.2 Log Import Sources - Radiata pine is mainly imported from New Zealand, and fir and spruce are mainly imported from Europe [14] 3.3 Log Import Volume - The data shows the monthly port shipping volume, departure ship number, and total import volume of New Zealand logs from 2023 - 2025, as well as the monthly import volume of different tree species of logs [16][18] 3.4 Log Inventory - The data presents the inventory of logs at different ports and of different varieties in China, including the inventory of coniferous logs, radiata pine, North American timber, and spruce [21] 3.5 Log Outbound Volume - The data shows the average daily outbound volume of logs at ports from 2023 - 2026, as well as the average daily outbound volume at Shandong and Jiangsu ports [24][27] 3.6 Log Demand - Related Data - The data includes the weekly outbound volume of cement, the weekly shipping volume of concrete, the actual in - place funds of real - estate development enterprises, and the correlation between building materials products [30][33]

PTA和PX出口商正密切关注全球市场的关税动态。2025年的政策变动曾对全球贸易流向造成显著冲 击，2026年亚洲PX出口商将继续紧盯美国关税政策变化。美国国际贸易委员会(ITC)数据显示，关税政 策已导致美国PX进口量大幅下滑，2025年1~9月进口量同比减少约37%，其中自韩国进口量跌幅近 50%。同期美国PTA进口量跌幅更为剧烈，韩国货源进口量锐减近75%。不过，2026年美韩若达成新的 关税协议，或将推动相关贸易流逐步恢复。这一情况对亚洲其他国家和地区同样适用。关税对欧洲市场 的影响同样值得关注。欧盟计划于2026年4月裁定临时反倾销税，并于10月出台最终措施。 另一个重点市场是印度。随着2026年印度本土PTA产能扩张，该国PX需求将稳步攀升。市场人士指 出，印度标准局此前针对聚酯产业链出台的质量管控令，曾导致市场分化为双轨制格局，如今该政策已 取消；加之印度GAIL公司的120万吨/年PTA装置有望3月投产，届时当地涤纶纱及聚对苯二甲酸乙二醇 酯(PET)树脂生产商将获得充足且价格实惠的原料。"有了印度GAIL公司的PTA供应，进口需求或将下 降。"一家印度PTA生产商称，进口量持续增长的趋势可能 ...