1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The crude oil market is continuously disturbed by the progress of the US - Iran negotiations, and the price of crude oil is oscillating strongly. The chemical industry has a good start after the Spring Festival. Although there is inventory accumulation, it may continue the oscillating pattern. The overall outlook is that the crude oil will maintain high volatility, and the chemical prices will continue to oscillate and consolidate [2]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Market Outlook - **Crude Oil**: API crude oil has a large inventory build - up, and the US - Iran geopolitical situation continuously disturbs the market. The supply is expected to be loose this year, but the geopolitical premium is significant. It is expected to oscillate in the short - term [2][7]. - **Asphalt**: The spot price rises, and the asphalt futures price goes up. The long - term supply of raw materials is expected to be abundant, and the current price is over - valued. It is expected to oscillate, and the long - term valuation is expected to decline [6][7]. - **High - sulfur Fuel Oil**: The fuel oil futures price still has a high geopolitical premium. The increase in Venezuelan oil production is expected to put long - term pressure on it. It is expected to oscillate, and short - term attention should be paid to the geopolitical situation in the Middle East [8]. - **Low - sulfur Fuel Oil**: It follows the crude oil to oscillate upwards. Although it faces some negative factors, its current valuation is low. It is expected to oscillate and follow the crude oil fluctuations [9]. - **PX**: The cost boost and the warm commodity sentiment resonate, and the price center moves up. It is expected to oscillate strongly in the short - term, and the mid - term logic of buying on dips remains [10]. - **PTA**: Supported by cost and tariff policies, it is necessary to pay attention to the resumption rhythm of the polyester industry. It is expected to oscillate strongly in the short - term [11]. - **Pure Benzene**: After the festival, it makes up for the price increase. The fundamentals in Q1 are better than those in Q4, but the inventory pressure is still large. It is expected to oscillate [12][13]. - **Styrene**: After the festival, it makes up for the price increase. The seasonal inventory build - up height in February is adjusted downwards, but the support strength declines. It is expected to oscillate [14][15]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The price rebound is limited due to supply - demand pressure, and the support below is enhanced. It is expected to maintain range consolidation in the short - term [16][18]. - **Short - fiber**: Supported by cost and tariff reduction, it is beneficial for export. It is expected to oscillate strongly in the short - term [18][19]. - **Bottle Chip**: The cost boost is obvious. It is expected to oscillate strongly in the short - term, and the support for processing fees below is enhanced [20]. - **Methanol**: After the festival, the overseas geopolitical disturbance continues, and it oscillates widely. It is necessary to pay attention to the negotiation progress between the US and Iran [22][23]. - **Urea**: Driven by post - festival demand, it oscillates strongly. Although there is upward momentum, the upward space is limited [24]. - **Plastic (LLDPE)**: The geopolitical disturbance boosts the sentiment, and it rebounds slightly. It is expected to oscillate in the short - term [28]. - **PP**: The basis is weak, and the futures price follows the crude oil to rebound slightly in the short - term. It is expected to oscillate in the short - term [29]. - **PL**: Supported by the spot and the rising oil price, it rebounds. It is expected to oscillate in the short - term [30]. - **PVC**: The geopolitical disturbance still exists, and it may oscillate. The high inventory forms a suppression, and the market sentiment is supported by the geopolitical disturbance and the spring inspection expectation [31]. - **Caustic Soda**: With low valuation and weak expectation, it oscillates. The high inventory suppresses, but the spring inspection and downstream restocking support it [32]. 3.2 Variety Data Monitoring 3.2.1 Energy and Chemical Daily Index Monitoring - **Inter - period Spread**: The inter - period spreads of various varieties such as Brent, Dubai, PX, PTA, etc. have different changes, which reflect the market's expectations for different time periods of each variety [34]. - **Basis and Warehouse Receipts**: The basis and warehouse receipts of each variety also have corresponding changes, which can reflect the relationship between the spot and futures prices and the inventory situation to a certain extent [35]. - **Inter - variety Spread**: The inter - variety spreads between different varieties such as PP - 3MA, TA - EG, etc. have changed, which can help analyze the relative price relationships between different varieties [36]. 3.2.2 Chemical Basis and Spread Monitoring Although the report lists various varieties such as methanol, urea, etc., no specific monitoring data and analysis content are provided. 3.3 Commodity Index - The comprehensive index, characteristic index, and sector index of the commodity index all show different degrees of increase, reflecting the overall upward trend of the market [275][276].

Monetary Policy - The central bank will conduct a 600 billion MLF operation today, with 300 billion MLF maturing this month, marking the 12th consecutive month of increased operations, though the scale is smaller than last month's 700 billion[3] - The February LPR is set at 3.0% for 1-year and 3.5% for 5-year loans, remaining unchanged for 9 months[3] - The capital market is stable, with short-term monetary policy in an observation phase, and the central bank is leaning towards using OMO to adjust market liquidity[3] Global Trade and Tariffs - The U.S. has officially begun imposing a 10% global tariff, with plans to increase it to 15%, affecting various industries including large batteries and industrial chemicals[3] - China is closely monitoring the situation and may adjust its countermeasures regarding tariffs on U.S. products, including fentanyl[3] Market Performance - On February 24, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.87%, and the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 1.36%, with total trading volume reaching 22,020.62 billion, an increase of 2,193.82 billion from the previous trading day[4] - The U.S. stock market saw gains, with the Dow Jones up 0.76%, S&P 500 up 0.77%, and Nasdaq up 1.04%[4] Bond and Interest Rates - The yield on the 10-year government bond is at 1.8053%, with a change of +0.92 BP[4] - The average rates for R001 and R007 are 1.4518% and 1.6102%, respectively[4] Sector Performance - The top-performing sectors include petroleum and petrochemicals (+5.53%), building materials (+3.71%), and basic chemicals (+3.45%), while media, computers, and retail sectors saw declines[4]

2026年02月25日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-农产品 观点与策略 | 棕榈油：减产兑现，短期难跌 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 豆油：美豆驱动有限，豆油区间反弹 | 2 | | 豆粕：隔夜美豆收涨，连粕或反弹震荡 | 4 | | 豆一：现货补涨，盘面震荡 | 4 | | 玉米：震荡偏强 | 6 | | 白糖：窄幅整理 | 7 | | 棉花：创年内新高20260225 | 8 | | 鸡蛋：弱势震荡 | 10 | | 生猪：现货不及预期，淡季去库难度大 | 11 | | 花生：震荡运行 | 12 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 2026 年 02 月 25 日 棕榈油：减产兑现，短期难跌 豆油：美豆驱动有限，豆油区间反弹 | | | 【基本面跟踪】 油脂基本面数据 | | | 单 位 元/吨 | 收盘价 (日盘） | 涨跌幅 | 收盘价 （夜盘） | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 棕榈油主力 豆油主力 | 元/吨 | 8,824 8,140 | ...

当地时间2月23日，特朗普政府再出关税新政——正考虑以"国家安全"为由，对大型电池、铸铁及铁制 配件等六个行业加征单独关税。 受此影响，美股周一集体收跌，周二盘前美股三大股指期货小幅回升，美元指数波动上涨。 | 道琼斯指数期货主连 (2603) | 48931 | +82 | +0.17% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | YMmain | | | | | 标普500指数期货主连 (2603) | 6867.50 | +16.00 | +0.23% | | ESmain | | | | | 纳斯达克100指数期货主连 (2603) | 24839.50 | +76.75 | +0.31% | | NQmain | | | | 立新代旧救场 据悉，这批关税将独立于近期宣布的15%全球临时关税。 回溯至2月20日，美国联邦最高法院裁定其此前大规模关税违法后，特朗普火速援引其他法律推出10% 全球关税，次日便提至15%、为期150天，仓促补位的操作再度搅乱全球贸易格局。 这场"立新代旧"，本质是特朗普为保住关税政策的仓促救场。 最高法院的重磅裁决，直接否定了其此前关税的合法性，倒逼他紧急寻 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|农业策略⽇报 2026-2-25 节后首日板块品种多上涨为主 油脂：外盘提振，油脂补涨 蛋白粕：节后首日交投清淡，盘面延续震荡 玉米：下游补库，玉米增仓上行 生猪：节后淡季，猪价下跌 天然橡胶：看涨情绪进一步放大，胶价迎来开门红 合成橡胶：市场情绪偏暖维持 棉花：宏观和供需预期利好共振，郑棉增仓上涨 白糖：印度食糖产量预期下调，节内外盘上涨，糖价中长期仍偏弱震荡 纸浆：偏暖金融市场氛围带动纸浆上涨 双胶纸：供需矛盾不突出，双胶窄幅震荡 原木：外盘提涨，内盘底部有支撑 风险因素：宏观大幅变动；气候异常；供需超预期变化 【异动品种】 天然橡㬵观点：看涨情绪进⼀步放⼤，㬵价迎来开⻔红 逻辑：天胶两品种昨日均大涨接近4%，除了市场氛围依旧向好，我们认为 昨日泰国公布的1月份天胶出口数据进一步放大了当前市场看涨情绪。由 于该降幅略超市场前期预期，所以该数据为盘面提供了较强的上涨推动。 不过需要看到的实际情况是，由于1月出口数据主要反映的是10-11月的产 出情况，而去年这段时间内泰国天气问题的确导致了阶段性的小幅减产， 并且由于12月存在年底集中发货的情况， ...

热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 铜：关税扰动，铜价承压 周二晚沪铜主力震荡收涨于102220元，伦铜运行至约13200美金附近。 宏观中性偏空。美国正式开始征收10%全球关税，同时白宫正在准备落实税率提高到15%的命令，中方商务部表态将全面评估美国关税调整反制政策，全球 贸易政策不确定性下铜价承压震荡。 基本面中性偏空。昨日上期所铜仓单增加8万吨至27.7万吨，LME铜累库1350吨至24.3万吨。据SMM春节假期间中国铜社会库存（不含保税）累库约15.5万 吨至50.8万吨。 总体来看，关税政策叠加地缘冲突扰动，预计短期铜价承压震荡为主。但在下游复工推进与国内政策预期支撑下，铜价具备一定韧性。今日沪铜主力运行参 考10.05万-10.3万元/吨。策略上，日内暂观望，中长线逢低布局远月多单。 铝：隔夜氧化铝期货小幅下跌，现货企业多升水报价，尤其流动性相对较高的山东区域，厂商和贸易商报价相对机构报价平水或者升水10-20元。主因节前 氧化铝生产企业减产及检修增多，以及北方大型氧化铝企业突发政策性减产。而广西地区新增产能投产或有所延后，当前运行产能下降至9350万吨左右，且 预计 ...

晨会纪要 2026 年 2 月 25 日 联系人：王竣冬 期货从业资格：F3024685 交易咨询从业证书号：Z0013759 研究咨询电话： 0531-81678626 客服电话： 400-618-6767 公司网址： www.ztqh.com [Table_QuotePic] 中泰微投研小程序 [Table_Report] 中泰期货公众号 交易咨询资格号： 证监许可[2012]112 [Table_Finance] 交易咨询资格号：证监许可[2012]112 | UN (A /UNDU | | 生 1 生平岡町 7 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 趋势空头 | 震荡偏空 | 震荡 | 震荡偏多 | 趋势多头 | | | 原油 | 工业硅 | 燃油 | | | | 生猪 | 液化石油气 | 沥青 | | | | 鸡蛋 | 多晶硅 | 20号胶 | | | | 红枣 | 白糖 | 橡胶 | | | | PVC | 铝 | 尿素 | | | | 铁矿石 | 十债 | 棉纱 | | | | | 五债 | 棉花 | | | | | 三十债 | 胶版印刷纸 | | | ...

期货市场交易指引 2026 年 02 月 25 日 | | 宏观金融 | | --- | --- | | ◆股指： | 中长期看好，逢低做多 | | ◆国债： | 震荡运行 | | | 黑色建材 | | ◆焦煤： | 短线交易 | | ◆螺纹钢： | 区间交易 | | ◆玻璃： | 震荡偏弱 | | | 有色金属 | | ◆铜： | 建议逢低做多 | | ◆铝： | 建议加强观望 | | ◆镍： | 建议逢低适度持多 | | ◆锡： | 区间交易 | | ◆黄金： | 区间交易 | | ◆白银： | 区间交易 | | ◆碳酸锂： | 区间震荡 | | | 能源化工 | | ◆PVC： | 区间交易 | | ◆烧碱： | 低位震荡 | | ◆纯碱： | 逢高做空 | | ◆苯乙烯： | 偏强震荡 | | ◆橡胶： | 区间交易 | | ◆尿素： | 区间交易 | | ◆甲醇： | 区间交易 | | ◆聚烯烃： | 偏弱震荡 | | | 棉纺产业链 | | ◆棉花棉纱： | 震荡偏强 | | ◆苹果： | 震荡运行 | | ◆红枣： | 震荡运行 | | | 农业畜牧 | | ◆生猪： | 05 谨慎追空，待反弹 ...

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the context of the US - Iran conflict affecting global risk appetite, the reversal of US tariff policies, the strong appreciation of the RMB exchange - rate driving foreign capital inflows, and the release wave of large models and the popularity of robots, stock indices are expected to show a strong performance [4]. - The unchanged LPR in February meets market expectations. Although there is potential inflation pressure on the bond market, the economic recovery momentum needs further observation. With a loose capital - market environment and strong bond - market allocation power, the bond market is expected to fluctuate with a slight upward trend [6][7]. - Gold is likely to maintain a high - level oscillation due to factors such as the strength of the US dollar and market uncertainty. Future trends depend on US macro - economic data, Fed officials' speeches, and US tariff policies [9]. - For non - ferrous metals, different metals have different trends. For example, copper prices are expected to turn to oscillation, aluminum prices may rise slightly in the short - term, and nickel prices are expected to rise with a contraction in supply [12][14][19]. - In the black building materials sector, the black series is in a bottom - game stage with multiple factors at play, and it is likely to continue to oscillate weakly in the short - term [31]. - In the energy - chemical industry, different products have different strategies. For example, crude oil is recommended for mid - term layout, and methanol is suggested to be bought at low prices in the mid - term [57][60]. - In the agricultural products sector, the supply - demand situation of various products varies. For example, the pig market has an oversupply situation in the short - term, while the sugar market is not suitable for excessive short - selling due to potential production - ratio adjustments in Brazil in the future [80][90]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro - financial Category Stock Indices - **Market Information**: The US imposed a 10% tariff on relevant goods, the central bank carried out a 600 billion yuan MLF operation, Musk proposed a satellite - launching plan, and a four - legged robot was released [2]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Stock indices are expected to perform strongly in the short - term [4]. Treasury Bonds - **Market Information**: Bond contract prices had slight changes, relevant entities were added to the export - control list, the LPR remained stable, and the central bank had a large - scale net capital withdrawal [5]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The bond market is expected to fluctuate with a slight upward trend [6][7]. Precious Metals - **Market Information**: Gold and silver prices had different trends, and the COMEX precious - metal inventory decreased [8][9]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Gold will maintain a high - level oscillation, and a wait - and - see strategy is recommended [9]. 3.2 Non - ferrous Metals Category Copper - **Market Information**: Copper prices rose, LME and domestic inventories changed, and the spot - futures basis and import losses also changed [11]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Copper prices are expected to turn to oscillation in the short - term [12]. Aluminum - **Market Information**: Aluminum prices rebounded, and domestic and LME inventories changed [13]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Aluminum prices are expected to rise slightly in the short - term [14]. Zinc - **Market Information**: Zinc prices rose, and inventory and basis data changed [15]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The domestic zinc industry is weak, but zinc prices may follow the rise of copper and aluminum prices [16]. Lead - **Market Information**: Lead prices fell, and inventory and basis data changed [17]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The lead industry is in a weak state, but strategic stockpiling by battery enterprises may support prices in the short - term [18]. Nickel - **Market Information**: Nickel prices rose, and the cost and price of related products were stable [19]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Nickel prices are expected to rise, and a long - position strategy at low prices is recommended [19]. Tin - **Market Information**: Tin prices rebounded, and supply and demand had certain characteristics [20]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Tin prices are expected to oscillate widely, and a wait - and - see strategy is recommended [20]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Information**: Lithium carbonate prices rose [21]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The fundamental situation of lithium carbonate may tighten after the Spring Festival, and attention should be paid to downstream restocking and production - recovery progress [21][22]. Alumina - **Market Information**: Alumina prices fell, and relevant data such as inventory and basis changed [23]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: A wait - and - see strategy is recommended in the short - term, and future price trends depend on ore - supply disturbances and supply - pressure relief [24]. Stainless Steel - **Market Information**: Stainless - steel prices rose, and inventory and production - related data changed [25]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The price has strong support at the bottom, and a long - position view is maintained [26]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market Information**: Cast - aluminum - alloy prices rose, and inventory and trading - volume data changed [27]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Prices are expected to stabilize in the short - term [29]. 3.3 Black Building Materials Category Steel - **Market Information**: Steel prices fell, and relevant data such as inventory and position changed [31]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The black series is in a bottom - game stage and is likely to oscillate weakly in the short - term [31]. Iron Ore - **Market Information**: Iron - ore prices fell, and relevant data such as inventory and basis changed [32]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Iron - ore prices will mainly oscillate, and attention should be paid to domestic terminal - demand start - up and policy guidance [33]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Market Information**: Coking - coal and coke prices fell, and relevant data such as inventory and basis changed [34]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: In the short - term, the upward impetus for coking coal is not strong, and there is a risk of price correction. In 2026, coking coal may have a good upward trend from June to October [36][37]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Market Information**: Glass prices rose slightly, and soda - ash prices also rose slightly, with corresponding inventory and position data changes [38][41]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Glass is expected to oscillate, and soda - ash is expected to oscillate weakly and steadily in the short - term [40][42]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Market Information**: Manganese - silicon and ferrosilicon prices fell, and the technical form was in an oscillating state [43]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The market may enter an oscillating and volatility - reducing cycle. The future market of manganese silicon and ferrosilicon depends on the black - market trend, cost - push factors, and supply - contraction expectations [44][45]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Market Information**: Industrial - silicon prices rose slightly, and polysilicon prices fell. Relevant data such as inventory and basis changed [47][49]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Industrial - silicon prices are expected to be weak, and polysilicon prices are expected to oscillate weakly. Attention should be paid to production changes in upstream and downstream enterprises and demand feedback [48][50]. 3.4 Energy - Chemical Category Rubber - **Market Information**: Rubber prices rose, and relevant data such as production - capacity utilization and inventory changed [52][53]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Short - term trading on the disk is recommended, and a hedging strategy of buying NR and selling RU2609 is suggested [55]. Crude Oil - **Market Information**: Crude - oil and related product prices rose [56]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: A mid - term layout for crude oil is recommended, waiting for the end of geopolitical risks [57]. Methanol - **Market Information**: Methanol prices changed [59]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: A mid - term strategy of buying at low prices is recommended [60]. Urea - **Market Information**: Urea prices changed, and the basis data was provided [61]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: A short - position strategy is recommended [62]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: Pure - benzene and styrene prices rose, and relevant data such as production - capacity utilization, inventory, and profit changed [63]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Profits from non - integrated styrene production have been repaired, and a profit - taking strategy is recommended [64]. PVC - **Market Information**: PVC prices rose, and relevant data such as production - capacity utilization, inventory, and cost changed [65][66]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The domestic PVC market has a situation of strong supply and weak demand. Short - term factors support prices, and attention should be paid to changes in production capacity and start - up [67]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: Ethylene - glycol prices rose, and relevant data such as production - capacity utilization, inventory, and profit changed [68]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: There is a need to increase production cuts to improve the supply - demand pattern. There is a risk of price rebound [69]. PTA - **Market Information**: PTA prices rose, and relevant data such as production - capacity utilization, inventory, and profit changed [70]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The PTA inventory - accumulation cycle is about to end, and there is a mid - term opportunity to buy at low prices [71]. p - Xylene - **Market Information**: p - Xylene prices rose, and relevant data such as production - capacity utilization, inventory, and profit changed [72]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: p - Xylene is expected to maintain an inventory - accumulation pattern in the short - term, and there are mid - term opportunities to buy at low prices following crude - oil trends [73]. Polyethylene (PE) - **Market Information**: PE prices rose, and relevant data such as production - capacity utilization, inventory, and basis changed [74]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The downward space for PE valuation exists, and the supply - demand situation is in a seasonal off - peak period [75]. Polypropylene (PP) - **Market Information**: PP prices rose, and relevant data such as production - capacity utilization, inventory, and basis changed [76]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply - demand situation is weak, and there is a long - term opportunity to buy the PP5 - 9 spread at low prices [77]. 3.5 Agricultural Products Category Hogs - **Market Information**: Hog prices fell, and the supply - demand situation was unbalanced [79]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The spot market is expected to be weak, and attention should be paid to the support at the bottom in the medium - term [80]. Eggs - **Market Information**: Egg prices were stable with slight fluctuations, and the supply - demand situation was normal [81]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The spot price is expected to have limited decline, and a wait - and - see or short - term trading strategy is recommended [82]. Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - **Market Information**: US soybean export data, Brazilian soybean harvest data, and domestic soybean and meal inventory data were provided [83]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Protein - meal prices are expected to oscillate in the short - term [85]. Oils and Fats - **Market Information**: Malaysian palm - oil production, export, and inventory data, as well as domestic and Indian oil inventory data were provided [86]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The oil price is currently weak, but a long - position strategy is recommended at low prices in the medium - term [87]. Sugar - **Market Information**: Sugar production data from Brazil, India, Thailand, and China, as well as import data were provided [88]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is not advisable to be overly bearish on the global sugar market. In the short - term, a wait - and - see strategy is recommended for the domestic market, and there may be a rebound after the end of the sugar - pressing season [90]. Cotton - **Market Information**: US cotton export data, domestic cotton inventory and production - capacity utilization data, and relevant policy information were provided [91]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: US cotton prices rebounded, and a long - position strategy at low prices is recommended for domestic cotton, with attention to downstream start - up [92].

黑色建材日报 2026-02-25 黑色建材组 陈张滢 从业资格号：F03098415 交易咨询号：Z0020771 0755-23375161 chenzy@wkqh.cn 郎志杰 从业资格号：F3030112 交易咨询号：Z0023202 0755-23375125 langzj@wkqh.cn 万林新 从业资格号：F03133967 0755-23375162 wanlx@wkqh.cn 赵 航 从业资格号：F03133652 0755-23375155 zhao3@wkqh.cn 《国际紧急经济权力法》未授权总统征收大规模关税，对特朗普政府"关税牌"形成掣肘。目前对华整体 关税为 35%，其中原有 25%关税仍然生效，两项基于 IEEPA 征收的 10%关税被裁定非法，后续或以新的全球 关税加以替代，但具体实施细节尚未明确。海外政策不确定性上升，市场风险偏好阶段性回落，对商品价 格形成扰动。综合来看，当前黑色系仍处于多空因素交织的底部博弈阶段。春节假期结束后，需重点关注 板材需求恢复强度、两会政策动向以及"双碳"相关政策是否出现边际变化。短期内黑色系大概率延续区 间偏弱震荡格局，趋势性机会尚未明朗。 ...