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消费复苏

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Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2025-04-29 02:53

Core Viewpoint - The company reported significant growth in its 2024 annual report and Q1 2025 report, with a notable increase in revenue and net profit, driven by strong performance in its OEM business and brand operations [1][2][5]. Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved revenue of 4.24 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 36.56%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 381 million yuan, up 229.52% [1]. - For Q4 2024, the company reported revenue of 1.215 billion yuan, a 47.91% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 60 million yuan, marking a return to profitability [1]. - In Q1 2025, revenue reached 1.234 billion yuan, a 35.57% increase year-on-year, with a net profit of 85 million yuan, up 20.12% [1]. Business Segments - The OEM manufacturing segment generated revenue of 3.534 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a 44.61% year-on-year growth, driven by increased demand in the sports sector and international events like the Paris Olympics [1][2]. - The brand management segment achieved revenue of 658 million yuan, a 5.07% increase year-on-year, focusing on the "Xiaomi" and "90 Points" brands and core travel product categories [2]. Profitability Metrics - The company's gross margin for 2024 was 22.86%, a decrease of 1.49 percentage points year-on-year, with a net profit margin of 8.99%, an increase of 5.26 percentage points [2][3]. - In Q4 2024, the gross margin was 22.12%, down 6.59 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin was 4.97%, up 5.64 percentage points [2][3]. - For Q1 2025, the gross margin improved to 24.71%, an increase of 0.54 percentage points year-on-year, with a net profit margin of 6.92%, down 0.89 percentage points [3]. Market Position and Strategy - The company has over 70% of its production capacity located overseas, primarily in Southeast Asia, which helps mitigate the impact of tariffs and maintain competitive advantages [4]. - The company is focused on expanding its market share among existing clients and acquiring new clients, leveraging its global production capabilities [5]. Future Outlook - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 5.234 billion yuan, 6.140 billion yuan, and 7.055 billion yuan, representing year-on-year growth rates of 23.4%, 17.3%, and 14.9% respectively [5]. - Net profit forecasts for the same period are 367 million yuan, 460 million yuan, and 557 million yuan, with expected growth rates of -3.6%, +25.1%, and +21.1% respectively [5].

洽洽食品(002557)：短期业绩承压或逐步改善

Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2025-04-29 02:43

事件：2024 年实现营收71.3 亿元，同比+4.8%，归母净利润8.5 亿元，同比+5.8%，扣非归母净利润7.7 亿元，同比+8.9%。25Q1 实现营业收入15.7 亿元，同比-13.8%，归母净利润7724.8 万元，同比-67.9%，扣非归母净利润5808.5 万元，同比-73.8%。受竞争加剧以及春节错期影响，25Q1 业绩承压。今年一季度净利润率下降。24 年/25Q1 销售费用率分别同比+0.9/-1.8pct，管理费用率分别同比 +0.1/0.9pct，我们推测公司因25Q1 收入增长承压，主动控制销售费用，而管理费用较为刚性，规模效应减弱致使费用率有所上升。 24/25Q1 净利润率分别为11.9%/4.9%，分别同比+0.1/-8.3pct。盈利预测与评级：25Q1 业绩下滑主因春节错期、葵花籽原料因天气涨价以及坚果竞争加剧影响，其中春节错期和原料问题为短期因素，后续有望改善，公司后续业绩或逐步好转。我们预测公司25-27 年归母净利润分别为7.56/9.19/9.90 亿元，同比增长-10.97%/21.50%/7.79%，EPS 分别为1.49/1.81/1.95 亿 ...