Group 1: Report Information - Report Type: Coke and Coking Coal Daily Review [1] - Date: May 29, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Black Metal Research Team [3] - Researchers: Zhai Hepan, Nie Jiayi, Feng Zeren [3] Group 2: Market Performance Futures Market - On May 28, the main contracts 2509 of coke and coking coal futures oscillated downward, hitting new lows for September contracts since January 2017 and September 2016 respectively in the afternoon. The J2509 contract closed at 1338.5 yuan/ton, down 1.91%, with a trading volume of 21,100 lots and an open interest of 57,482 lots, an increase of 1,175 lots. The JM2509 contract closed at 779 yuan/ton, down 2.20%, with a trading volume of 537,375 lots and an open interest of 526,866 lots, an increase of 5,852 lots. The capital inflow/outflow was 0.03 billion yuan for J2509 and -0.73 billion yuan for JM2509 [5]. Spot Market - On May 28, the daily KDJ indicators of the coke and coking coal 2509 contracts declined, with the J and K values turning down and the D value continuing to slide. The daily MACD green bar of the coke 2509 contract continued to expand, while that of the coking coal 2509 contract turned to expand. The ex - warehouse price index of quasi - first - class metallurgical coke at Rizhao Port, Qingdao Port, and Tianjin Port was 1390 yuan/ton, with no change. The price in Tangshan was 1320 yuan/ton, also unchanged. The aggregated price of low - sulfur main coking coal in different regions remained stable [8]. Group 3: Market Outlook Coke - In the past 5 weeks, the coke production of independent coking plants has hovered near the highest level since early August last year, while the coke production of steel mills has slightly declined since late April. The coke inventory at ports has significantly decreased in the past 5 weeks, but the inventory reduction speed of steel mills and coking plants is slow, adding new downward pressure on coke prices. The profit per ton of coke turned from profit to loss after 2 consecutive weeks of profit, mainly because the second - round price increase of coke spot prices did not occur after the first - round increase in mid - April, creating conditions for steel mills to propose a price cut, which was implemented on May 16 [10]. Coking Coal - From January to April, the year - on - year growth of imports turned negative, but the absolute value of imports remained at a high level, and the overall loose pattern was difficult to reverse. The raw coal inventory of coal washing plants has significantly increased, and the clean coal inventory has risen again to a relatively high level. In the past 5 weeks, the inventory of independent coking plants has significantly decreased, and the port inventory has also returned to the normal level before early August last year, but the inventory of steel mills has increased steadily. If coking plants also adopt inventory reduction strategies while steel mills still have relatively sufficient inventory, coking coal prices are likely to fall rather than rise [10]. Overall - Although the weak market of coke and coking coal futures continues, and there may be new lows in the next two weeks, positive factors in the fundamentals and news are accumulating. Attention should be paid to whether a turning point of bottom - fishing rebound can occur in about the next two weeks under the changes in tariff policies and the recovery of confidence in the steel market [10] Group 4: Industry News - In April 2025, the national issuance of new bonds was 253.4 billion yuan, including 23.3 billion yuan of general bonds and 230.1 billion yuan of special bonds. From January to April, the cumulative issuance of new local government bonds was 1492.7 billion yuan, including 302.3 billion yuan of general bonds and 1190.4 billion yuan of special bonds [12]. - The construction of the Dapingtan Coal Mine project is accelerating. The mine is located in Kuche City, Aksu Region, Xinjiang, with a mining area of 16.56 square kilometers, a geological reserve of 247 million tons, and a designed production capacity of 2.4 million tons/year [12]. - Nanjing Iron and Steel Co., Ltd.'s subsidiary, Anhui Jin'an Mining Co., Ltd., obtained the exploration right of Fanqiao Iron Mine in Huoqiu County, Anhui Province. The mine has an ore resource of 116.4967 million tons and a normal - year production capacity of 3.5 million tons/year of iron ore and 1.04 million tons/year of iron concentrate [12][13]. - Jiantou Energy expects the thermal coal market to be generally loose in 2025, with coal prices likely to decline further. The company's long - term agreement signing coverage rate in 2025 exceeds 80% [13]. - Lingyuan Iron and Steel Co., Ltd.'s 2290m³ blast furnace was successfully put into operation on May 27, 2025, after capacity replacement [13]. - Handan City encourages steel and logistics enterprises to integrate resources, explore centralized procurement of bulk commodities, and develop multimodal transport [13][14]. - The production - continuation land use project of Heidaigou and Halwusu Open - pit Mines in Zhungeer Banner was approved, which can meet the land demand of the two mines for the next five years [14]. - From January to April 2025, the automobile industry's production increased by 11% year - on - year, but the profit decreased by 5.1%. The industry needs to control costs [14]. - In April 2025, China exported 10.462 million tons of steel, basically the same as the previous month. From January to April, the cumulative export was 37.891 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.2% [14]. - In April 2025, the US coal production was 39.6403 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 22.37% and a month - on - month decrease of 6.53% [15]. - In March 2025, India's coal imports were 20.2908 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 7.79% and a month - on - month increase of 13.65% [15]. - Glencore's Ulan Coal Mine in Australia was approved for expansion, allowing it to mine an additional 18.8 million tons of coal and extend its mine life by two years [15]. - The nationwide blackout in Portugal on April 28 may have caused economic losses of over 2 billion euros to Portuguese enterprises [15] Group 5: Data Overview - The report presents multiple data charts, including the spot price index of metallurgical coke, the aggregated price of main coking coal, the production and capacity utilization rate of coking plants and steel mills, the national daily average pig iron output, the inventory of coke and coking coal in ports, steel mills, and coking plants, the profit per ton of coke for independent coking plants, the production and operating rate of coal washing plants, the inventory of raw coal and clean coal in coal washing plants, and the basis between spot and futures contracts [16][17][19][29][33][36]

行业 聚烯烃日报 日期 2025 年 5 月 29 日 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3037892 028-86630631 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3065843 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 研究员：李金（甲醇） 021-60635730 lijin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3015157 021-60635727 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03134307 能源化工研究团队 研究员：彭婧霖（聚烯烃） 研究员：李捷,CFA（原油燃料油） 研究员：任俊弛（PTA、MEG） 研究员：彭 ...

豆粕生猪：缺乏炒作题材 豆粕小幅震荡 朱皓天 zhuhaotian@jsfco.com 期货从业资格号：F03090081 投资咨询从业证书号：Z0016204 表 1：豆粕生猪期货日度数据监测 | | 元日期货 | | | 粕 类 生 猪 每 日 数 据 追 踪 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | JIDGHI FILLINE | | | | | | | | | 指标 | 載全 | 車位 | マロ | 昨日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | | 期货 | DCE豆粕: 01 | 5月28日 | 元/吨 | 3013 | 3022 | -9.00 | -0.30% | | | DCE豆粕: 05 | 5月28日 | 元/吨 | 2710 | 2716 | -6.00 | -0.22% | | | DCE豆粕: 09 | 5月28日 | 元/吨 | 2961 | 2966 | -5.00 | -0.17% | | | CZCE菜籽粕: 01 | 5月28日 | 元/吨 | 2347 | 2347 | 0.00 | 0.00% | | ...

黑色系期货集体走低，机构预测中国2025年粗钢产量同比下降3700万吨，铁矿石需求底在何处？ 相关链接 期货热点追踪 ...

Investment consulting business qualification：CSRC License [2012] No. 669 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669 号 中 信 期 货 国 际 化 研 究 | 中 信 期 货 研 究 所 International 2024-10-09 中信期货国际化研究 | CITIC Futures International Research 2025/05/28 Risks: Macroeconomic fluctuations, geopolitical situations, and reversals in policy trends. 宏观方面：1—4 月份全国规模以上工业企业利润总额同比增长 1.4%。 桂晨曦 Gui Chenxi 从业资格号 Qualification No：F3023159 投资咨询号 Consulting No.：Z0013632 CITIC Futures International Service Platform：https://internationalservice.citicsf.com 摘要 A ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the report industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report The macro factors are changeable, and copper, an important resource with "quasi - gold" properties, is sought after by the market. With the expected relatively tight supply at the mine end and the continuously low TC price, the copper price is expected to remain in a pattern of rising easily and falling hard. It is recommended to mainly conduct buy - hedging on dips, with an operating range of 77,000 yuan/ton to 77,500 yuan/ton. Arbitrage should be postponed, and for options, short put at 76,000 yuan/ton [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market News and Important Data - **Futures Quotes**: On May 27, 2025, the main contract of Shanghai copper opened at 78,180 yuan/ton and closed at 78,210 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.08% compared to the previous trading day's close. The night - session main contract opened at 78,160 yuan/ton and closed at 78,100 yuan/ton, a 0.14% increase compared to the afternoon close [1]. - **Spot Situation**: The spot premium declined again due to continuous arrival of imported copper and poor purchasing sentiment of downstream enterprises. The premium of mainstream flat - copper was 120 - 140 yuan/ton, and that of good copper was 180 - 220 yuan/ton. With importers' shipments, the premium of some copper decreased. It is expected that imported copper will be shipped today, suppressing the overall spot premium, but the convergence of the spot premium is limited [2]. - **Important Information Summaries**: - **Macro and Geopolitical**: The US may lower tariffs on some countries to 10% or lower. Trump may impose new sanctions on Russia. The European Central Bank should postpone further interest - rate cuts until September [3]. - **Economic Data**: The US March FHFA house price index monthly rate was - 0.1%, the largest decline since August 2022. From January to April, China's industrial enterprises above designated size achieved a total profit of 2.11702 trillion yuan, a 1.4% year - on - year increase. Profits of different types of enterprises and industries showed different trends [3]. - **Mine End**: Patriot Resources acquired a high - grade copper deposit in Zambia, with an exploration target of 1.6 - 2.5 million tons of ore and an expected copper content of 32,000 - 62,500 tons. The Kamoa - Kakula mine's production and cost guidance and smelter capacity - ramp - up plan have been withdrawn for review [4]. - **Smelting and Import**: Antofagasta started the first - round negotiation of mid - year long - term contracts with Japanese smelters last week and will contact Chinese manufacturers. The Manyar smelter in Indonesia plans to produce the first batch of cathode copper in late June 2025 and reach full production in December. The supply growth of domestic refined copper is weak [5]. - **Consumption**: The high - level shock of copper prices has stimulated some downstream enterprises' restocking demand during price corrections. The overall consumption has improved, but most enterprises still purchase on - demand, and the market sentiment is cautious [5]. - **Inventory and Warehouse Receipts**: LME warehouse receipts decreased by 1,800 tons to 162,150 tons, SHFE warehouse receipts increased by 2,128 tons to 34,961 tons. On May 26, the domestic electrolytic copper spot inventory was 139,700 tons, a decrease of 200 tons from the previous week [5]. Strategy - **Overall Operation**: It is recommended to mainly conduct buy - hedging on dips, with an operating range of 77,000 yuan/ton to 77,500 yuan/ton [7]. - **Arbitrage**: Postpone [7]. - **Options**: Short put at 76,000 yuan/ton [7]. Data Table The table shows copper price and basis data, including spot (premium and discount), inventory, warehouse receipts, spreads, and arbitrage data for different time points (today, yesterday, last week, and one month ago) [30][31].

化工日报 | 2025-05-28 聚酯负荷下降，EG震荡偏弱 核心观点 单边：短期谨慎看多，近期卫星等几套大装置有检修计划，仓单固化下流通性收紧，到港量偏少下短期价格有支 撑 跨期：正套 跨品种：无 风险 市场分析 期现货方面：昨日EG主力合约收盘价4387元/吨（较前一交易日变动-6元/吨，幅度-0.14%），EG华东市场现货价4516 元/吨（较前一交易日变动-29元/吨，幅度-0.64%），EG华东现货基差（基于2509合约）148元/吨（环比+18元/吨）。 生产利润方面：乙烯制EG生产利润为-21美元/吨（环比+1美元/吨），煤制合成气制EG生产利润为216元/吨（环比 +13元/吨）。 库存方面：根据 CCF 每周一发布的数据，MEG 华东主港库存为68.7万吨（环比-5.6万吨）；根据隆众每周四发布 的数据， MEG 华东主港库存为61.2万吨（环比-5.2万吨）。上周主港实际到货总数7.6万吨，到港量偏少，港口去 库幅度明显；本周华东主港计划到港总数9.2万吨，中性偏低。 整体基本面供需逻辑：供应端，卫星等几套大装置仍存检修计划，短期国内EG负荷维持低位；需求端，近端聚酯 负荷有所回落，但整 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - For industrial silicon, due to weakened cost support, expected increase in supply, lackluster consumption, high industry inventory, and a large number of warehouse receipts, the short - term market has no bullish drivers, and the futures price is expected to continue to fluctuate weakly and seek a bottom. For polysilicon, as the first delivery approaches, the long - short game intensifies. With limited warehouse receipt registration and high 06 - contract positions, closing positions may trigger market movements. The short - term supply pressure eases slightly, but downstream demand is sluggish, and prices are expected to fluctuate widely [3][7]. Summary by Related Catalogs Industrial Silicon Market Analysis - On May 27, 2025, the industrial silicon futures price continued to decline. The main contract 2507 opened at 7625 yuan/ton and closed at 7440 yuan/ton, down 280 yuan/ton (-3.63%) from the previous settlement. The 2505 main - contract positions were 227,207 lots, and the total number of warehouse receipts was 64,626 lots, a decrease of 287 lots from the previous day. The spot price of industrial silicon dropped, and the basis strengthened recently. The organic silicon DMC quoted price remained stable, and the industry's operating rate is expected to decline further [1]. Supply and Demand - With the decline in raw material prices such as silicon coal and southwest electricity prices during the wet season, cost support has weakened. The supply side has significant over - capacity, with复产 expectations in the southwest and production restart plans for leading northwest enterprises. The consumer side is average, and the fundamentals are weak [2]. Strategy - In the short term, the futures price is expected to fluctuate weakly and seek a bottom. It is recommended to operate within a range, and upstream enterprises should sell and hedge at high prices [3]. Polysilicon Market Analysis - On May 27, 2025, the main polysilicon futures contract 2507 fluctuated. It opened at 34,500 yuan/ton and closed at 35,290 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.16% from the previous day. The main - contract positions reached 80,800 lots, and the trading volume was 191,734 lots. The spot price of polysilicon remained stable. The polysilicon manufacturers' inventory increased, while the silicon wafer inventory decreased. The prices of silicon wafers, battery cells, and components remained stable [4][5][6]. Strategy - As the first delivery approaches, the long - short game in the market intensifies. With limited warehouse receipt registration and high 06 - contract positions, closing positions may trigger market movements. In the short term, due to lack of demand drivers, prices are expected to fluctuate widely. It is recommended to operate within a range, and be short - term cautiously bullish on single - side trading [7].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral [5] - Arbitrage: Inter - period positive spread [5] 2. Report's Core View - After maintenance disturbances, zinc prices rose and then fell. The current strong consumption supports zinc prices to fluctuate at a high level, but consumption may face challenges in June, and there is a possibility of a month - on - month decline in consumption after June. Attention should be paid to inventory changes [1][4] 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs Important Data - **Spot**: LME zinc spot premium is -$21.55/ton. SMM Shanghai zinc spot price rose by 160 yuan/ton to 22,730 yuan/ton, and its premium rose by 55 yuan/ton to 445 yuan/ton. SMM Guangdong zinc spot price rose by 140 yuan/ton to 22,690 yuan/ton, and its premium rose by 35 yuan/ton to 405 yuan/ton. SMM Tianjin zinc spot price rose by 160 yuan/ton to 22,730 yuan/ton, and its premium rose by 55 yuan/ton to 445 yuan/ton [2] - **Futures**: On May 27, 2025, the main SHFE zinc contract opened at 22,185 yuan/ton and closed at 22,330 yuan/ton, up 135 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 343,177 lots, an increase of 200,438 lots from the previous trading day. The open interest was 121,568 lots, an increase of 3,048 lots from the previous trading day. The intraday price fluctuated, with a high of 22,695 yuan/ton and a low of 22,175 yuan/ton [2] - **Inventory**: As of May 26, 2025, the total inventory of SMM seven - region zinc ingots was 78,800 tons, a decrease of 5,000 tons from the same period last week. As of May 27, 2025, LME zinc inventory was 151,150 tons, a decrease of 2,350 tons from the previous trading day [3] Market Analysis - In the spot market, traders' supplies were tight, and concerns about the maintenance of smelters in South China pushed up the spot premium. However, downstream buyers were reluctant to buy at high prices, and the purchase enthusiasm was poor due to the supplement of imported supplies. A zinc smelter in South China extended its maintenance, causing zinc prices to fluctuate and rise, but the rise lacked sustainable momentum, and supply pressure pushed zinc prices back into the oscillation range [4] - Overseas mine production in Q1 was lower than expected, but TC will continue to rise in June. Even at the current TC price, smelting is still profitable, and smelting enthusiasm remains high, so supply pressure persists. Domestic smelters have sufficient raw material inventories, and there is no condition for a short - term TC reduction [4]

农产品日报 | 2025-05-28 供应仍显宽松，猪价震荡运行 生猪观点 市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面，昨日收盘生猪 2509合约13560元/吨，较前交易日变动-40.00元/吨，幅度-0.29%。现货方面，河南地区 外三元生猪价格14.60元/公斤，较前交易日变动+0.14元/公斤，现货基差 LH09+1040，较前交易日变动+180；江苏 地区外三元生猪价格 14.76元/公斤，较前交易日变动+0.09元/公斤，现货基差LH09+1200，较前交易日变动+130； 四川地区外三元生猪价格14.36元/公斤，较前交易日变动+0.08元/公斤，现货基差LH09+800，较前交易日变动+120。 据农业农村部监测，5月27日"农产品批发价格200指数"为114.07，比昨天上升0.09个点，"菜篮子"产品批发价格指 数为114.28，比昨天上升0.12个点。全国农产品批发市场猪肉平均价格为20.91元/公斤，比昨天上升1.5%；牛肉63.00 元/公斤，比昨天下降1.0%；羊肉59.36元/公斤，与昨天持平；鸡蛋7.72元/公斤，比昨天下降0.3%；白条鸡17.53元/ 公斤，比昨天上升1.3%。 市场分析 ...