Investment Rating - The report maintains a GDP growth forecast of 5% for the year and 4.5% for Q4 2025, indicating a stable outlook for the industry [5][8]. Core Insights - China's fiscal spending growth is below expectations, primarily due to strong export growth, which allows for a 5% annual growth target to be achievable. This has led to a tightening of fiscal policy in October, but some policy space is reserved for 2026 to ensure a strong start [5][8]. - The focus of China's economic policy for the coming year will be on stabilizing domestic demand, supporting high-tech manufacturing, and stabilizing the real estate market, with key discussions expected in upcoming political meetings [8][12]. - The labor market shows slight improvement but remains at historical lows, limiting consumer recovery. Consumer confidence has improved slightly, influenced by the stock market, but overall consumer spending remains weak [9][10]. Summary by Sections Fiscal Policy - In October, fiscal spending growth was lower than market expectations, leading to an unexpected tightening of broad fiscal indicators. However, the report maintains a GDP growth forecast of 5% for the year [5][6]. Consumer Market - October retail sales data showed accelerated growth in categories like cosmetics and jewelry due to the Double Eleven shopping festival, but this is expected to decline in November. Sales of home appliances and automobiles, supported by trade-in subsidies, have lagged behind other categories, indicating that price promotions and temporary subsidies cannot sustain durable goods consumption [6][7]. Labor Market and Consumer Confidence - The labor market remains weak, with historical low employment levels limiting consumer recovery. Consumer confidence showed slight improvement, potentially due to stock market performance, but overall consumer spending is still weak [9][10]. Fixed Asset Investment (FAI) - FAI growth has significantly slowed, dropping to approximately -11% in October. The decline in real estate investment, along with reductions in infrastructure and manufacturing investments, has contributed to this downturn. The report suggests that only 40% of the decline can be attributed to known factors, with the remaining 60% possibly due to statistical adjustments [13][14]. Policy Recommendations - To stimulate household consumption, the report suggests measures such as creating job opportunities, increasing minimum wage standards, and enhancing service consumption supply. Specific policies include subsidies for the service industry and labor-intensive sectors, as well as relaxing restrictions on high-end consumption [12][16]. Investment Opportunities - The report identifies 35 policy-supported industries that account for approximately 60% of the total market capitalization of listed companies. These industries are expected to provide better investment returns based on the analysis of the Fifteenth Five-Year Plan [15][16].

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - **Federal Reserve's Interest Rate Expectations**: The divergence in expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts in December has increased, with dovish officials citing a weak labor market as support for cuts, while hawkish officials express concerns over inflation rebound, leading to increased policy uncertainty [1][3][4][5] - **Domestic Macro Economy**: The LPR remained unchanged in November, indicating that the central bank believes there is still room for monetary policy, but the marginal efficiency is declining, making further easing unlikely this year [1][7][8] Commodity Market Insights - **Black Commodities**: There is a significant divergence in the performance of black commodities. Coal and coke prices have dropped sharply, with coking coal down 9% and coke over 4%. In contrast, iron ore has shown relative strength, increasing by approximately 1.2% [1][9][12] - **Iron Ore Market**: Iron ore has performed better than other commodities recently, but with increased shipments and port arrivals, supply-demand conflicts may intensify, leading to potential price volatility in the short term [1][12] - **Precious Metals**: The precious metals market remains weak, with the gold-silver ratio hovering around 81. Factors such as internal divisions within the Federal Reserve and geopolitical tensions have limited upward momentum for gold [1][15] - **Oil Market**: The oil market is under pressure from a mid-term supply surplus, with IEA predicting continued oversupply in global oil markets this year and next, leading to a bearish outlook for oil prices [1][20] Specific Commodity Analysis - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The coking coal market is facing increased supply due to domestic production recovery and rising imports from Mongolia. The coke market is also under pressure, with limited price increases expected [1][13][14] - **Steel Market**: The rebar and hot-rolled coil markets are experiencing narrow fluctuations, with recent data showing improvements in both supply and demand, although overall market sentiment remains cautious [1][10][11] - **Nonferrous Metals**: The nonferrous metals market is generally weak, with copper prices expected to remain volatile but high. The aluminum market faces seasonal inventory increases, limiting upward price potential [1][17] - **New Energy Materials**: The polysilicon and industrial silicon markets are weak, while lithium carbonate prices have risen unexpectedly due to improved fundamentals, although risks of price declines remain [1][18][19] Additional Insights - **Market Sentiment**: The overall market sentiment is cautious due to mixed economic data and geopolitical uncertainties, impacting various commodity prices and investor strategies [1][6][17] - **Future Expectations**: The outlook for many commodities remains uncertain, with potential for volatility driven by supply-demand dynamics and macroeconomic factors [1][20][21][25]

证券研究报告 | 策略研究 2025 年 11 月 26 日 近期人民币为何全面走强？对 A 股有何影响？ ——金融市场流动性与监管动态周报（1126） 上周二级市场可跟踪资金净流入规模扩大，融资净流出但 ETF 逆势净流入，外 部美国经济数据及美联储官员密集鸽派表态下，美联储 12 月降息预期再度回 升，美元指数回落，我们构建的外资流出压力指标显示外资流出的压力已连续 5 个交易日缓解。往后看，在美联储降息预期和市场继续企稳回升背景下，外资成 交活跃度或有望回升。 定期报告 相关报告 1. 《招商 A 股流动性研究体系与 流动性指数——A 股市流动性研 究之四》，2016 年 8 月 2. 《A 股机构投资者全景图—股 票市场SCP范式研究之一》，2017 年 10 月 3. 《保险资金持续流入股票市场， 美联储降息不确定性增强——金 融市场流动性与监管动态周报 （1118）》 资料来源：Wind，招商证券 | 招商 A 股流动性指数 | | | --- | --- | | 流动性指标 | 数值/金额（亿 元） | | 资金供给 | | | 公募基金发行 | 139.99↑ | | ETF 净申购 | 49 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For alumina, the market presents a situation of relatively high supply and stable demand. It is recommended to conduct light - position oscillating trading and control the rhythm and trading risks [2]. - For electrolytic aluminum, the supply is stable while the demand weakens slightly due to the off - season. It is advisable to conduct light - position short - long trading at low prices and control the rhythm and trading risks [2]. - For cast aluminum alloy, the supply is contracting and the demand is slightly decreasing. It is suggested to conduct light - position short - long trading at low prices and control the rhythm and trading risks [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - **Aluminum - related Contracts**: The closing price of the Shanghai aluminum main contract was 21,455 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; the closing price of the alumina futures main contract was 2,720 yuan/ton, down 7 yuan. The LME electrolytic aluminum three - month quote was 2,801 dollars/ton, down 12 dollars. The LME aluminum inventory was 543,725 tons, down 2,225 tons. The Shanghai - London ratio was 7.66, up 0.03 [2]. - **Other Aluminum Products**: The closing price of the cast aluminum alloy main contract was 20,695 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan. The main - second - contract spread of cast aluminum alloy was - 110 yuan/ton, down 55 yuan [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - **Prices**: The Shanghai Non - ferrous A00 aluminum price was 21,400 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan; the alumina spot price in Shanghai Non - ferrous was 2,770 yuan/ton, unchanged. The average price of ADC12 aluminum alloy ingots nationwide was 21,350 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - **Basis**: The basis of cast aluminum alloy was 655 yuan/ton, down 55 yuan; the basis of electrolytic aluminum was - 55 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan. The basis of alumina was 50 yuan/ton, up 7 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - **Raw Materials**: The average price of crushed primary aluminum in Foshan metal scrap was 16,900 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price in Shandong metal scrap was 16,550 yuan/ton, unchanged. China's import volume of aluminum scrap was 158,360.01 tons, up 2,945.61 tons; the export volume was 32.46 tons, down 36.08 tons [2]. - **Alumina**: The alumina production was 786.50 million tons, down 13.40 million tons; the demand for alumina in the electrolytic aluminum part was 730.23 million tons, up 25.92 million tons. The export volume of alumina was 18.00 million tons, down 7.00 million tons; the import volume was 18.93 million tons, up 12.93 million tons [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The import volume of primary aluminum was 248,261.37 tons, up 4,462 tons; the export volume was 24,573.56 tons, down 4,396.36 tons. The electrolytic aluminum production capacity was 4,523.20 million tons, unchanged; the operating rate was 98.24%, down 0.12% [2]. - **Aluminum Products**: The aluminum product output was 569.40 million tons, down 20.60 million tons; the export volume of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products was 50.00 million tons, down 2.00 million tons. The output of recycled aluminum alloy ingots was 60.83 million tons, down 4.82 million tons; the export volume of aluminum alloy was 3.09 million tons, up 0.74 million tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream and Application - **Automobile**: The automobile production was 327.90 million vehicles, up 5.25 million vehicles [2]. - **Real Estate**: The National Housing Prosperity Index was 92.43, down 0.34 [2]. 3.6 Option Situation - **Volatility**: The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai aluminum was 11.23%, down 0.26%; the 40 - day historical volatility was 10.35%, down 0.04%. The implied volatility of the Shanghai aluminum main - contract at - the - money IV was 9.02%, down 0.0079% [2]. - **Ratio**: The call - put ratio of Shanghai aluminum options was 1.63, up 0.1021 [2]. 3.7 Industry News - **Data and Energy**: The National Data Bureau launched the first batch of 12 state - owned enterprise data resource development and utilization pilots. In October, the national power market trading volume was 563.8 billion kWh, a year - on - year increase of 15.6% [2]. - **Automobile Market**: In October, European car sales increased by 4.9% year - on - year to 1.09 million vehicles. Tesla's new car registrations decreased by 48%, BYD's increased by 195%, SAIC Group's increased by 56%, and Toyota's decreased by 10.8% [2]. - **Economic News**: A Fed governor called for significant interest rate cuts. US PPI and retail sales data showed inflation resurgence and a slowdown in consumption growth. The China - US presidential call had a positive atmosphere [2].

Group 1 - The U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) for September increased by 0.3% month-over-month and 2.7% year-over-year, indicating persistent inflationary pressures at the production level [1][3] - The core PPI rose by 0.1% month-over-month and 2.6% year-over-year, further highlighting ongoing inflation concerns [3] - Wholesale prices for September saw a month-over-month increase of 0.9%, primarily driven by rising gasoline costs, with energy price fluctuations being a major factor in wholesale inflation [5] Group 2 - Retail sales in the U.S. increased by 0.2% month-over-month in September, which is lower than the previous value, suggesting a potential slowdown in consumer spending [7] - The current economic situation in the U.S. presents a complex scenario of inflationary pressures alongside slowing consumption and a weak labor market, complicating the Federal Reserve's monetary policy decisions [9]

Core Viewpoint - The competition for the next Federal Reserve Chair has intensified, with five strong candidates identified, including close associates of Trump and a prominent critic of the Fed [1][2]. Candidate Analysis - **Kevin Hassett**: As the Director of the National Economic Council, he has a close relationship with Trump and emphasizes the importance of Fed independence and sound monetary policy. He criticizes the Fed for misjudging inflation during the pandemic and supports a significant rate cut in December [2][3]. - **Chris Waller**: Currently a Fed board member, he has called for rate cuts and is concerned about a weak job market. He believes inflation is nearing the Fed's 2% target when excluding tariff impacts [4][5]. - **Michelle Bowman**: Another current Fed member, she is worried about the job market's fragility and supports rate cuts. She has proposed regulatory changes to focus on significant financial risks [5][6]. - **Kevin Warsh**: A former Fed governor, he has been critical of the Fed's recent decisions and believes it should abandon its inflation predictions. He argues that inflation is driven by excessive government spending [7][8][9]. - **Rick Rieder**: As BlackRock's fixed income chief, he manages $2.4 trillion in assets and supports a rate cut in December, citing concerns about the labor market [10]. Potential Candidates - **Steven Mnuchin**: Although he has expressed disinterest in the Fed Chair position, he remains a top candidate due to his close ties with Trump [11]. - **Trump's Preference**: The president is likely to choose a candidate who aligns with his low-rate philosophy, which could lead to a more dovish Fed [11][12].

Core Insights - The global capital markets experienced significant volatility due to geopolitical tensions, particularly related to the Russia-Ukraine conflict, with oil prices dropping over 1.5% and gold prices seeing a short-term decline [1][4]. Group 1: Peace Negotiations - Diplomatic efforts accelerated before Thanksgiving, with Ukraine's President Zelensky preparing to meet with Trump on November 27 to finalize key steps for a peace agreement [3]. - The initial "28-point" plan proposed by the U.S. has been condensed to a "19-point" version, which Ukraine has agreed to, although some details remain to be negotiated [3]. - Moscow's response has been lukewarm, with officials indicating they have not received the updated plan and are awaiting further details from the U.S. [3]. Group 2: Geopolitical Considerations - The timing of the peace plan has drawn academic interest, with experts suggesting that both Russia and Ukraine may be exhausted, providing an opportunity for the U.S. to propose a new plan [4]. - The expectation of reduced geopolitical risks has impacted the valuation of safe-haven assets, leading to a decline in gold prices as market risk aversion diminishes [4]. - Analysts express caution regarding the future of precious metals, noting that the lack of sustainable risk factors and ongoing uncertainty surrounding U.S. Federal Reserve policies will continue to influence gold prices [4].

Core Viewpoint - The statements from Federal Reserve Governor Stephen Miran provide a dovish perspective on the current monetary policy path, advocating for a quicker pace of interest rate cuts to address labor market pressures and suggesting that current inflation data reflects a "structural illusion" that should not delay easing measures [1]. Group 1: Employment and Monetary Policy - Miran attributes the rise in the September unemployment rate from 4.3% to 4.4% directly to the overly tight current monetary policy [3]. - He emphasizes that without timely interest rate reductions, persistently high rates will suppress corporate investment and hiring intentions, leading to further weakening in the labor market [3]. - Miran advocates for a series of 50 basis point cuts to bring rates down to neutral levels to support employment recovery [3]. Group 2: Inflation and Economic Conditions - Miran identifies two main factors contributing to the current elevated inflation data: an imbalance in the housing market driving up rental prices and the lagging effects of previous rate hikes [3]. - He argues that these factors are temporary and do not indicate substantial inflationary pressure, suggesting that the Federal Reserve can pursue rate cuts more aggressively without fearing runaway inflation [3]. Group 3: Asset and Balance Sheet Management - In addition to interest rate policy, Miran recommends a conservative approach to balance sheet management, advocating for an increase in short-term Treasury holdings to maintain liquidity while reducing long-term bond and MBS holdings [3]. - He highlights the housing market as a critical channel for monetary policy transmission, noting that rate cuts would help lower mortgage rates and alleviate pressure in the housing market [3]. Group 4: Market Expectations and Future Outlook - The Federal Reserve has already cut rates by 25 basis points in both September and October, with December's potential rate cut being a focal point for the market [4]. - Miran's views reinforce a dovish stance, pushing for larger and faster rate cuts in response to labor market weakness, although concerns from hawkish members about inflation rebound persist [4]. - The ultimate direction of policy will depend on the balance between employment and inflation considerations [4].

Core Viewpoint - The recent volatility of the RMB against the USD is influenced by multiple factors, including U.S. monetary policy, domestic economic recovery, and global risk sentiment. The RMB is expected to maintain a stable range in the near term, with potential fluctuations based on these influences [1][3][7]. Exchange Rate Trends - As of November 25, 2025, the RMB to USD central parity rate is reported at 7.0847, an increase of 28 basis points from the previous trading day, indicating the central bank's intention to stabilize the exchange rate [1]. - The RMB has experienced significant fluctuations over the past year, with a low of 7.25 in 2024 due to a strong USD and tightening U.S. trade policies, followed by a rapid appreciation to around 7.00 due to rising risk aversion [3]. - In 2025, the RMB's exchange rate fluctuated between a "policy floor" and a "market ceiling," with a cumulative appreciation of 0.93% for the year, reflecting a narrowing volatility range compared to previous years [3][4]. Influencing Factors - U.S. monetary policy remains a critical factor, with market predictions suggesting a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December, which could exert downward pressure on the USD and influence the RMB [3][4]. - The pace of domestic economic recovery is also crucial, as China's GDP growth met expectations in Q3, but consumption and export recovery remain incomplete, with capital flows facing pressure [4]. - Global risk sentiment, particularly due to escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, has increased demand for USD as a safe haven, putting additional pressure on non-USD currencies, including the RMB [4][6]. Future Outlook - The RMB is expected to maintain a range between 7.05 and 7.15 by the end of 2025, with the strength of the USD and the pace of domestic economic recovery being the primary influencing factors [6]. - If the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates as anticipated and the domestic economy continues to recover steadily, the RMB could potentially return to around 6.98 in 2026 [6]. - Investors should remain vigilant regarding exchange rate fluctuations, as unexpected events, such as changes in the Middle East situation or global economic uncertainties, could lead to short-term volatility [6][7].

Core Viewpoint - The Reserve Bank of New Zealand has lowered the Official Cash Rate (OCR) by 25 basis points to 2.25%, aligning with market expectations and aimed at supporting consumer and business confidence amid a slower economic recovery [2][4][5]. Monetary Policy Decision - The decision to cut the OCR was made after a discussion between maintaining the rate at 2.5% and lowering it to 2.25%, with a vote of 5 to 1 in favor of the reduction [4]. - The committee believes that lowering the OCR will help bolster consumer and business confidence and mitigate risks associated with a slower economic recovery [5]. Economic Indicators - The annual consumer price inflation rate rose to 3% in the September quarter, reaching the upper limit of the central bank's target range of 1% to 3% [7]. - The OCR's significant reduction since August 2024 is expected to support economic activity recovery, with inflation projected to return to around 2% by mid-2026 [8]. - The committee noted improvements in short-term economic activity indicators, suggesting a moderate GDP growth in the September quarter [8]. Leadership Transition - The recent monetary policy meeting was the last chaired by acting chair Christian Hawkesby, with Anna Blayman set to officially take over as the new chair [11]. - Blayman is perceived as a dovish member from her time at the Swedish central bank, which may signal a tendency towards more accommodative policies in the future [11]. Labor Market and Demographics - New Zealand's unemployment rate rose to 5.3%, the highest since Q4 2016, reflecting weak economic conditions and reduced hiring demand [12]. - There is a notable outflow of young people from New Zealand, with approximately 73,000 citizens expected to leave between September 2024 and September 2025, marking an 8% increase year-on-year [12].