Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Report's Core View - For the nickel market, due to high inventory and a persistent oversupply situation, nickel prices are expected to remain in a low - level oscillation. However, as the current price has reached a 5 - year low, the downward space is relatively limited [1][3]. - For the stainless - steel market, with low demand, high inventory, and a continuously decreasing cost center, stainless - steel prices are also expected to stay in a low - level oscillation. Considering the current price is at a historical low, further decline is expected to be limited [3][4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel Variety - **Market Analysis** - **Futures**: On November 25, 2025, the Shanghai nickel main contract 2601 opened at 115,880 yuan/ton and closed at 116,160 yuan/ton, a 0.75% change from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 116,438 (-32,096) lots, and the open interest was 141,215 (-6,339) lots. The contract continued to rebound and closed slightly higher, but the trading volume decreased, indicating market hesitation. Macro factors such as positive signals from China - US leadership communication and dovish signals from Fed officials supported nickel prices [1]. - **Nickel Ore**: The nickel ore market is mainly in a wait - and - see mode with stable prices. In the Philippines, northern mines' shipments are unstable, and the latest tender prices have slightly declined but remain high. The downstream nickel - iron transaction price has dropped to 880 yuan/nickel (including tax at the hatch), leading to a lack of market confidence. Iron plants' profits are affected, and they are cautious in purchasing nickel ore. Some iron plants are considering production cuts. In Indonesia, the November (Phase II) domestic trade benchmark price has dropped by 0.12 - 0.2 US dollars/wet ton, and the current mainstream premium is +26, with a premium range of +25 - 26 [1]. - **Spot**: Jinchuan Group's Shanghai market sales price was 121,270 yuan/ton, an increase of 1,070 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. Due to previous price drops and production cuts by some enterprises, spot supply has tightened, and the spot premiums of various refined nickel brands have mostly increased. The premium of Jinchuan nickel changed by 100 yuan/ton to 4,450 yuan/ton, the premium of imported nickel remained at 500 yuan/ton, and the premium of nickel beans was 2,450 yuan/ton. The previous trading day's Shanghai nickel warehouse receipts were 33,785 (-294) tons, and LME nickel inventory was 253,482 (0) tons [2]. - **Strategy** - **Unilateral**: Mainly conduct range - bound operations. - **Other**: No operations are recommended for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options [3]. Stainless - Steel Variety - **Market Analysis** - **Futures**: On November 25, 2025, the stainless - steel main contract 2601 opened at 12,920 yuan/ton and closed at 12,405 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 150,286 (+2,692) lots, and the open interest was 147,237 (-4,171) lots. The contract rose slightly, basically following the trend of Shanghai nickel. The trading volume increased slightly, and market activity improved. Macro factors such as the rising expectation of Fed rate cuts and China's issuance of 1 trillion yuan in national bonds and early release of local bond quotas boosted market confidence and stainless - steel prices [3]. - **Spot**: Driven by the futures market, the spot market has recovered, with some purchasing demand released and increased market transactions. The stainless - steel price in Wuxi market was 12,625 (-50) yuan/ton, and in Foshan market was 12,650 (-50) yuan/ton. The premium of 304/2B was 340 - 490 yuan/ton. The ex - factory tax - included average price of high - nickel pig iron decreased by 2.00 yuan/nickel point to 887.0 yuan/nickel point [3][4]. - **Strategy** - **Unilateral**: Neutral. - **Other**: No operations are recommended for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options [4].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Copper: Cautiously bullish [7] - Arbitrage: On hold [7] - Options: Short put [7] Core Viewpoints - Market expectations of a Fed rate cut in December and geopolitical factors have led to copper price fluctuations. However, lower prices have boosted downstream purchasing, and short hedging positions have been unwound, providing support at the 85,000 - 85,500 yuan/ton level. Buying hedges can be made at this level, and selling hedges can be made above 89,000 yuan/ton [7]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market News and Important Data - **Futures Quotes**: On November 25, 2025, the Shanghai copper main contract opened at 86,080 yuan/ton and closed at 86,600 yuan/ton, up 0.60% from the previous trading day. The night - session closed at 86,350 yuan/ton, down 0.08% from the afternoon close [1]. - **Spot Situation**: The SMM 1 electrolytic copper spot quoted a premium of 0 - 160 yuan/ton to the 2512 contract, with an average premium of 80 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan from the previous day. The spot price ranged from 86,330 to 86,890 yuan/ton. After the copper price rose above 86,500 yuan/ton, downstream purchasing slowed. It is expected that today's spot trading will remain stalemated [2]. Important Information Summaries - **Inflation Data**: In September, US PPI rose 0.3% month - on - month, and core PPI rose 0.1% month - on - month, indicating a resurgence of inflation. Retail sales increased 0.2% month - on - month, with a slowdown and lower - than - expected growth [3]. - **Fiscal Data**: In October, the US federal government budget deficit reached $284 billion due to the government "shutdown". The release of the 2026 fiscal year's first - month budget results was postponed [3]. - **Fed Information**: The selection of the Fed chairman is in the final stage. A Fed official called for significant interest rate cuts [3]. - **Mine - end News**: DPM Metals faces pressure to abandon its $600 million Loma Larga gold - copper project in Ecuador. Anglo American's Quellaveco copper mine in Peru has produced 1 million tons of copper since 2022, with an expected output of 310,000 - 340,000 tons in 2025 [4]. - **Smelting and Import**: The global copper processing pricing mechanism is changing. The long - standing annual benchmark pricing system may be adjusted, with a trend towards more bilateral agreements and price - range settings [5]. - **Consumption**: The operating rate of refined copper rod enterprises increased by 3.2 percentage points to 70.07%, and is expected to reach 72.74% next week. The operating rate of copper cable enterprises increased by 1.32 percentage points to 65.68% and is expected to continue rising [6]. - **Inventory and Warehouse Receipts**: LME warehouse receipts changed by 725 tons to 156,575 tons. SHFE warehouse receipts changed by - 2,851 tons to 40,965 tons. On November 25, the domestic electrolytic copper spot inventory was 180,600 tons, a decrease of 13,900 tons from the previous week [6]. Copper Price and Basis Data - **Spot Premium**: SMM 1 copper premium was 80 yuan/ton, down from 85 yuan/ton the previous day [26]. - **Inventory**: LME inventory was 156,575 tons, SHFE inventory was 110,603 tons, and COMEX inventory was 371,388 tons [28]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: SHFE warehouse receipts were 40,965 tons, down from 43,816 tons the previous day [28]. - **Arbitrage and Import Profit**: The import profit was - 1,027 yuan, and the copper - to - aluminum and copper - to - zinc arbitrage ratios also changed [29].

| 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 黄金 | 2602 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏强 | 观望 | 降息预期升温，俄乌趋于缓和 | | 铜 | 2601 | 震荡 | 强势 | 震荡 偏强 | 长线看强 | 宏观宽松，矿端减产 | 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货贵金属有色早报（2025 年 11 月 26 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 参考观点：观望 说明： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 核心逻辑：近期黄金市场处于多空因素交织的复杂局面，价格在高位呈现震荡态势。一方面，市场对 美联储降息的预期显著升温，为金价提供了核心支撑；另一方面，俄乌和平谈判取得进展的消息，则 削弱了黄金的避险吸引力。俄乌局势的发展是影响黄 ...

期 货 眼 ·日 迹 每日早盘观察 银河期货研究所 2025 年 11 月 26 日 0 / 44 研究所 期货眼·日迹 | 股指期货：市场仍有反复 3 | | --- | | 国债期货：缺少共识，情绪转弱 4 | | 铅：区间偏弱震荡 21 | | --- | | 镍：减产刺激镍价反弹 库存压制高度 22 | | 不锈钢：供需两弱 跟随原料反弹 22 | | 工业硅：区间震荡，高抛低吸 23 | | 多晶硅：短期观望 23 | | 碳酸锂：资金情绪乐观 盘面延续强势 24 | | 锡：供应紧张，锡价支撑偏强 25 | | | | | 蛋白粕：国内库存维持高位 | 盘面震荡运行 5 | | --- | --- | | 白糖：巴西榨季逐渐进入尾声 | 北半球陆续开榨 5 | | 油脂板块：震荡行情延续 6 | | | 玉米/玉米淀粉：现货偏强，盘面继续上涨 7 | | | 生猪：出栏压力体现 | 现货继续回落 8 | | 花生：花生现货稳定，花生短期底部震荡 9 | | | 鸡蛋：需求表现一般蛋价稳中有落 9 | | | 苹果：需求表现一般 | 果价稳定为主 10 | | 棉花-棉纱：基本面矛盾不大 | 棉价震 ...

镍与不锈钢日评20251126:考验支撑有效性 数据来源:SMM W | 交易日期(日) | 2025-11-25 | 2025-11-24 | 2025-11-18 | 较昨日变化 | 近两周走势 | 期货近月合约 | 收盘价 | 115940.00 | 115320.00 | 620.00 | 114840.00 | 3 | 2 | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 115000.00 | 116160.00 | 115530.00 | 630.00 | 期货连一合约 | 收盘价 | 3 | 期货连二合约 | 收盘价 | 116330.00 | 115710.00 | 115220.00 | 620.00 | | | | | | | | | 3 | 115980.00 | 580.00 | 期货连三合约 | 收盘价 | 116560.00 | 115460.00 | 7 ...

Key Points of Investment Analysis 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the given content. 2. Core Views - OPEC+ maintains an increasing production stance, global economy and demand are weak, and new peace talks between Russia and Ukraine ease geopolitical risks, leading to a weakening trend in international oil prices [1]. - The potential end of the Russia - Ukraine conflict is favorable for risk appetite and negative for gold, but increased expectations of Fed rate cuts make gold oscillate upwards in the short - term and may oscillate at a high level in the medium - term [2]. - The domestic lithium market may face weakening fundamentals in the future, and short - term lithium prices may struggle to maintain a strong trend [4]. - The steel market has no obvious supply - demand contradiction recently, and short - term steel prices may oscillate upwards, but the upside is limited due to weak demand in the off - season [4]. - The cost of ferrosilicon remains high, but the market supply - demand is still loose, and the price is expected to run at a low level around the cost [5]. - The overall supply of pigs exceeds demand, and the short - term LH2601 contract still has downward pressure [6]. - The supply of soybean meal is abundant, and the demand is limited, so the short - term 01 contract will maintain an oscillating pattern [6]. - The export of Malaysian palm oil has declined, and the short - term near - month contract will run weakly [7]. - The supply - demand structure of PTA is relatively good in the short - term, but it is advisable to wait and see due to the weakening trend of crude oil [7]. - The natural rubber market is expected to oscillate weakly [8]. - The bond market is favorable in the medium - term but with increased operation difficulty, and attention should be paid to the stock - bond seesaw effect [9]. - The market's expectation of a Fed rate cut in December has increased to 80%, and silver will oscillate in the short - term and remain bullish in the long - term [10]. 3. Summaries by Product Crude Oil - As of November 21, 2025, US commercial crude oil inventories decreased by 1.86 million barrels, gasoline inventories increased by 539,000 barrels, and distillate inventories increased by 753,000 barrels [1]. - New peace talks between Russia and Ukraine have attracted market attention, and international oil prices are running weakly [1]. Gold - Trump's team has made great progress in ending the Russia - Ukraine conflict, and the conflict may end soon, which is negative for gold [2]. - Increased expectations of Fed rate cuts make gold oscillate upwards in the short - term and may oscillate at a high level in the medium - term [2]. Carbonate Lithium - The SMM battery - grade carbonate lithium index price is 92,462 yuan/ton, down 145 yuan/ton from the previous working day [4]. - The domestic lithium market may face weakening fundamentals in the future, and short - term lithium prices may struggle to maintain a strong trend [4]. Rebar - The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills is 82.19%, down 0.62 percentage points from last week; the blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate is 88.58%, down 0.22 percentage points from last week [4]. - The steel market has no obvious supply - demand contradiction recently, and short - term steel prices may oscillate upwards, but the upside is limited due to weak demand in the off - season [4]. Ferrosilicon - The national inventory of 60 independent ferrosilicon enterprises is 73,050 tons, down 10.21% or 8,310 tons from the previous period [5]. - The cost of ferrosilicon remains high, but the market supply - demand is still loose, and the price is expected to run at a low level around the cost [5]. Live Pigs - On November 25, the average wholesale price of pork in the national agricultural product market was 17.72 yuan/kg, down 1.1% from the previous day [6]. - The overall supply of pigs exceeds demand, and the short - term LH2601 contract still has downward pressure [6]. Soybean Meal - As of November 25, the domestic soybean meal spot prices remained stable [6]. - The supply of soybean meal is abundant, and the demand is limited, so the short - term 01 contract will maintain an oscillating pattern [6]. Palm Oil - From November 1 - 25, the export volume of Malaysian palm oil decreased by 16.4% - 18.8% compared with the same period last month [7]. - The export of Malaysian palm oil has declined, and the short - term near - month contract will run weakly [7]. PTA - This week, the domestic PTA output is 141.98 million tons, down 3.09 million tons from last week and up 2.88 million tons from the same period last year [7]. - The supply - demand structure of PTA is relatively good in the short - term, but it is advisable to wait and see due to the weakening trend of crude oil [7]. Natural Rubber - The price of Thai raw material glue is 57 Thai baht/kg, and the price of cup glue is not available; the price of Hainan glue for whole - milk production is 16,100 yuan/ton [8]. - The natural rubber market is expected to oscillate weakly [8]. Long - term Treasury Bonds - An upcoming policy briefing may affect the bond market. The bond market is favorable in the medium - term but with increased operation difficulty, and attention should be paid to the stock - bond seesaw effect [9]. Silver - The market's expectation of a Fed rate cut in December has increased to 80%, and silver will oscillate in the short - term and remain bullish in the long - term [10].

Core Viewpoint - Short-term risk factors for Hong Kong stocks are decreasing, but a rebound confirmation requires catalysts. The current position is attractive for medium to long-term allocation [1]. Group 1: Economic Factors - The expectation of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut in December is fluctuating, leading to relatively weak performance in overseas markets represented by U.S. stocks. An increase in rate cut expectations could benefit Hong Kong stocks [1]. - The market is likely to refocus on policy ahead of the Central Economic Work Conference in December, which has not yet been priced in [1]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The narrative surrounding the AI technology bubble in U.S. stocks has weakened, resulting in significant corrections in Hong Kong technology stocks, which currently present an attractive allocation opportunity [1]. - Short-term, macroeconomic and geopolitical risks remain unresolved, suggesting a balanced allocation strategy, with relative strength in dividends still present [1]. Group 3: Investment Products - The Hong Kong Technology ETF (513020) tracks the Hong Kong Stock Connect Technology Index (931573), which selects listed companies involved in information technology, electronic components, and interactive media, focusing on high-end manufacturing, hardware infrastructure, and the entire AI industry chain [1].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 贵金属早报—— 2025年11月26日 大越期货投资咨询部 项唯一 从业资格证号： F3051846 投资咨询证号： Z0015764 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 前日回顾 2 每日提示 3 4 5 今日关注 基本面数据 持仓数据 黄金 1、基本面：经济数据利好美联储12月降息，俄乌和谈又有进展，金价震荡；美国三 大股指全线收涨，欧洲三大股指收盘全线上涨；美债收益率集体下跌，10年期美债 收益率跌3.07个基点报3.996%；美元指数跌0.39%报99.81，离岸人民币对美元大幅 升值报7.0829；COMEX黄金期货涨0.78%报4126.3美元/盎司；中性 2、基差：黄金期货946.5，现货941.45，基差-5.05，现货贴水期货；偏空 3、库存：黄金期货仓单90423千克，减少3千克；偏空 4、盘面：20日均线向上，k线在20日均 ...

Report Summary 1. Market Performance on November 25, 2025 - **Stock Index Futures**: A - share market strengthened, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 0.87% to 3870.02, the Shenzhen Component Index up 1.53% to 12777.31, and the ChiNext Index up 1.77% to 2980.93. The trading volume reached 1812.1 billion yuan, an increase of 84.4 billion yuan from the previous day. The CSI 300 Index closed at 4490.40, up 42.36 [1][2] - **Coke and Coking Coal Futures**: Coke weighted index closed at 1686.4, up 15.9; coking coal weighted index closed at 1127.1 yuan, down 4.5 [2][3] - **Zhengzhou Sugar Futures**: The 2601 - month contract of Zhengzhou sugar futures rose slightly, influenced by the rebound of US sugar and stable spot prices [4] - **Rubber Futures**: Shanghai rubber futures fell due to factors like increased inventory at Qingdao ports and decreased seasonal demand. As of November 23, 2025, the total inventory in Qingdao was 46.89 million tons, a 3.60% increase [4][5] - **Palm Oil Futures**: Palm oil prices continued to decline, with the main contract P2601 closing at 8360, down 1.48% [5] - **Live Pig Futures**: The LH2601 main contract closed at 11415 yuan/ton, up 0.13%. The market is in a supply - strong and demand - weak pattern [5] - **Soybean Meal Futures**: CBOT soybeans rose slightly. In the domestic market, the M2601 main contract closed at 3013 yuan/ton, up 0.07% [5] - **Shanghai Copper Futures**: The main contract of Shanghai copper closed at 86421 yuan/ton, up 0.65% [6] - **Cotton Futures**: The main contract of Zhengzhou cotton closed at 13615 yuan/ton at night on November 25 [8] - **Iron Ore Futures**: The 2601 main contract of iron ore closed up 0.51% at 794 yuan [8] - **Asphalt Futures**: The 2601 main contract of asphalt closed up 1.19% at 3068 yuan [8] - **Log Futures**: The 2601 log contract opened at 766.5, closed at 764.5, and decreased 24 lots in positions [8] - **Steel Futures**: rb2601 closed at 3106 yuan/ton, hc2601 closed at 3309 yuan/ton. Steel prices showed a slightly stronger trend [9] - **Alumina Futures**: ao2601 closed at 2727 yuan/ton. The alumina market is in an oversupply situation [9] - **Shanghai Aluminum Futures**: al2601 closed at 21465 yuan/ton. The aluminum market is in a state of mild supply and demand [9] 2. Core Views - **Coke and Coking Coal**: Coke's fourth - round price increase has been implemented, and the demand from steel mills provides short - term support. Coking coal supply may increase in the short - term but has a contraction expectation in the long - term [4] - **Zhengzhou Sugar**: Influenced by factors such as the rebound of US sugar and stable spot prices, the Zhengzhou sugar futures showed a slight upward trend [4] - **Rubber**: Rising inventory and decreased demand led to a decline in rubber futures prices [4][5] - **Palm Oil**: Palm oil prices continued to fall, with a significant decrease in export volume [5] - **Live Pig**: The live pig market is in a supply - strong and demand - weak situation, and attention should be paid to the changes in sow inventory and the slaughter rhythm of large - scale pig enterprises [5] - **Soybean Meal**: In the international market, the situation of US soybean exports is mixed. In the domestic market, the supply of soybean meal is sufficient, and attention should be paid to South American weather and soybean imports [5][6] - **Shanghai Copper**: Macro factors and supply - demand relationships support copper prices, but there are also some risk factors [6] - **Iron Ore**: The iron ore market is in a seasonal production - reduction trend, and the price is in a volatile state [8] - **Asphalt**: The asphalt market has a weak supply - demand relationship, and the price is in a volatile state [8] - **Log**: There is no major contradiction in the log market's supply - demand relationship, and attention should be paid to factors such as spot prices and inventory changes [8][9] - **Steel**: Steel prices are showing a slightly stronger trend in the short - term, but the long - term supply - demand is in a balanced state [9] - **Alumina**: The alumina market is in an oversupply situation, and the price is under pressure [9] - **Shanghai Aluminum**: The aluminum market is in a state of mild supply and demand, and the price is in a range - bound state [9]

（来源：福能期货） 来源：福能期货 仍存,期权可逢低头入看涨期权午币价差策略。 1、近期美联储三把手威廉姆斯、理事沃勒及戴利相继发表鸽派发言,提振 市场对于美联储12月降息预期,美联储12月降息预期骤然升温。 2、9月非农就业意外大增11.9万人,失业率却升至四年来最高的4.4%,非 农就业数据喜忧参半。 3、中长期来看,受全球政治经济不确定、美元信用体系冲击等因素影响下, 金价牛市基础仍存。建议前期多单可逢高减持,底仓可考虑买入浅虚值看 跌期权进行保护。 品种解析(仅供参考) 铜:三季度多家矿企再度下调年度生产计划,铜矿供应下降到负值。下游对 86000元/吨以下价格接受度较高,并且随着下游企业的点价增多,部分此前 加工端的卖空套保头寸也得以平仓,预计短期铜价偏强震荡运行。 氧化铝/电解铝:当前氧化铝价格触已触及现金成本,但氧化铝仍未出现实质 性减产,基本面维持偏弱格局。在短期供应端暂无新增扰动因素的背景下, 预计期价仍将以偏弱整理为主。电解铝方面,海外电解铝厂减产21万吨及预 计明年3月再度减产37万吨的预期加剧了海外铝供需紧张的担忧,叠加国内库 存仍在去化,预计短期沪铝下方支撑较强。 铅:供需矛盾缓和, ...