各位上午好今天是7月9号欢迎来到摩根史丹利每周三的这个周期论剑的在线直播我是张蕾Rachel基础销量行业的分析师今天呢我们讨论几个主题一个呢是我们交易行业的首席范建磊会聊一下他们最近对交易行业的一些观点的更新接着呢我们金融行业的首席虚然会聊一下金融消费支付的数据反弹很明显但是为什么银行市场的这个份额在下降 然后再接着呢我们对这个新能源的这个首席意外侯会聊一下第一呢就是最近四源电器他们刚出了一个首次覆盖的报告第二的话呢就是这几天这个整个光伏板块这个反内卷的一些这个小作文满天飞所以他会聊一下他们这边的观点我呢会最后聊一下反内卷这个对我们原材料行业的一些影响 开始之前,例行我需要读一个DISCLAIMER请注意本次会议已经面向摩根史丹利的机构客户以及财务顾问本会议不对媒体开放如果您来自媒体的话,敬请退出会议另外提示一下大家,在整个会议的过程中您可以随时在屏幕上发送您的问题不需要等到最后这样我们可以节约一些后面的这个Q&A等待的时间好的,我也不多说了,我先把时间交给茜蕾 好的谢谢Rachel 大家好我们在过去这一周的时间还是有比较多的各个子行业的一些更新那今天我会分子行业分别讲一下先说一下快递那快递我们这一周比较这个 ...

"黑色系列"专家电话会 20250710 摘要 新疆煤炭储量占全国 40%，产量仅占 11%，主要产区为准东、吐哈、 南疆及印尼地区，其中准东和哈密产量占比超 80%。内销占比约 70%，外运约 28%，未来本地消纳能力将提升。 新疆煤炭外运主要流向甘肃、宁夏、青海、西南等地，占比超 90%。新 铁路建设将显著增加港口方向运输能力，预计三年左右完成建设，北通 道将成为货运主通道。 部分新疆矿井出现亏损，每吨亏损 10-30 元不等，导致部分矿井相对保 守，没有大规模生产。预计下半年市场可能反弹，政策或将提减产和去 产能。 2025 年上半年动力煤市场供大于求，全国 1-5 月新增产量 1.1 亿吨， 消费端仅增加 1,200 万吨，导致价格下跌。下半年高温天气预期将推动 火电需求增长，但发电企业对供应端过度乐观可能导致误判。 鄂尔多斯地区煤矿减产主要受价格因素影响，山西省煤炭产量开始放缓， 安全生产形势严峻，安监会加大监管力度。晋陕蒙新核心地区降雨增多， 对煤炭生产运输和供应产生显著影响。 近年来，新疆煤炭市场发展迅速，产量从 2016 年的 1.67 亿吨增长到 2025 年 的预计 5.7 亿吨。自治区领 ...

今年邮政快递行业的反内卷压力如何？行业业务量和单价变化情况如何？ 今年（2025 年）邮政快递行业的反内卷压力有所存在，但并不特别大。根据 前六个月的数据测算，今年（2025 年）行业业务量增幅约为 17.2%，而行业 单价降幅约为 7%。这意味着价格竞争较为激烈，内卷现象较严重。然而，考 虑到无人化技术的发展，今年（2025 年）的行业竞争并没有那么激烈，相比 2020 年和 2021 年有所缓解。 国家层面在反内卷方面采取了哪些措施？ 快递：本次反内卷有何不同？20250710 摘要 2025 年快递行业价格竞争有所缓解，但仍面临单价下降压力，上半年 降幅约 7%，预计下半年收窄至 6%，需关注义乌、潮汕等地价格波动。 国家层面积极反内卷，工信部试点号码保护，国务院推动稳就业，中央 财经委强调高质量发展，旨在提升服务质量和行业整体水平。 快递企业应通过数字化管理优化派费，加强监管力度，稳定基层，并借 鉴历史经验，如 2021 年国家邮政局约谈涨价措施，但需避免价格大幅 波动。 快递行业反内卷核心在于打破电商平台数据垄断，通过数据流通提升服 务质量，并借助政策引导，如号码保护服务，将数据赋能快递公司。 快递 ...

黑色建材日报 2025-07-11 从业资格号：F03098415 交易咨询号：Z0020771 0755-23375161 chenzy@wkqh.cn 钢材 黑色建材组 陈张滢 郎志杰 从业资格号：F3030112 0755-23375125 langzj@wkqh.cn 万林新 从业资格号：F03133967 0755-23375162 wanlx@wkqh.cn 赵 航 从业资格号：F03133652 0755-23375155 zhao3@wkqh.cn 螺纹钢主力合约下午收盘价为 3123 元/吨, 较上一交易日涨 60 元/吨（1.958%）。当日注册仓单 54625 吨, 环比增加 9720 吨。主力合约持仓量为 223.0035 万手，环比增加 55094 手。现货市场方面, 螺纹钢天津汇 总价格为 3170 元/吨, 环比增加 10/吨; 上海汇总价格为 3190 元/吨, 环比增加 30 元/吨。 热轧板卷主力 合约收盘价为 3262 元/吨, 较上一交易日涨 72 元/吨（2.257%）。 当日注册仓单 64587 吨, 环比减少 0 吨。主力合约持仓量为 159.7104 万手，环比 ...

首席点评： 黑色板块继续上涨 美国总统特朗普在社交媒体上发文，再度敦促美联储主席鲍威尔降息。此前一天，特朗普批评美联储当 前的利率政策，称美联储设定的利率至少偏高 3 个百分点，利率每个百分点每年给美国造成了 3600 亿 美元的再融资成本。消息称特朗普正考虑在美联储主席鲍威尔明年离任前为美联储任命一位 " 影子主席 " ，以向美联储施压，迫使其降息。中证报头版刊文称，今年上半年，各地发行用于置换存量隐性债务 的置换债近 1.8 万亿元，总体呈现早发、快发的特点。同时，多地在财政预算调整方案中安排专项债用 于偿还拖欠企业账款。国内商品期市夜盘收盘多数上涨，黑色系普遍上涨，焦煤涨 2.60% ，铁矿石涨 1.87% ；化工品中橡胶涨 1.19% ；油脂油料中豆粕涨 0.99% ，豆二涨 0.81% 。能源品普遍下跌，燃油 下跌 1.49% ，低硫燃料油下跌 0.57% 。 重点品种： 原油、焦煤、玻璃 7 月 10 日，中国汽车动力电池产业创新联盟公布数据显示， 6 月，我国动力电池装车量 58.2GWh ，环 比增长 1.9% ，同比增长 35.9% 。其中三元电池装车量 10.7GWh ，占总装车量 18. ...

有色早报 研究中心有色团队 2025/07/11 铜 ： 日期 沪铜现货 升贴水 废精铜 价差 上期所 库存 沪铜 仓单 现货进口 盈利 三月进口 盈利 保税库 premium 提单 premium 伦铜 C-3M LME 库存 LME 注销仓单 2025/07/04 105 1223 84589 22307 -974.44 138.45 30.0 52.0 95.35 95275 33950 2025/07/07 100 1001 84589 21682 -1002.36 174.64 29.0 63.0 79.80 97400 36875 2025/07/08 80 1048 84589 19109 -844.96 44.77 29.0 63.0 51.31 102500 37100 2025/07/09 60 502 84589 21336 -437.33 412.81 40.0 65.0 22.37 107125 38250 2025/07/10 15 306 84589 21729 -302.05 513.15 45.0 62.0 -0.95 108100 40950 变化 -45 -196 0 3 ...

Core Viewpoint - The report from CITIC Securities emphasizes that driving price recovery in the photovoltaic (PV) industry is an effective measure and an important first step towards achieving "anti-involution" in the sector [1][6] Price Recovery and Market Dynamics - A reasonable recovery in the industry chain prices is seen as a key method for "anti-involution" and a prerequisite for supply-side reform [2] - The current "anti-involution" initiative aims to address low-price disorderly competition among companies, with market regulation being a direct demand and supply-side reform as a medium to long-term goal [2] - Recent price increases in silicon materials have reached approximately 45,000 yuan per ton, marking a 25% increase, while N-type materials have seen a 6%-7% rise in average transaction prices [2][3] Impact on Supply Chain and Competition - The price increases are expected to have a cascading effect down the supply chain, with N-type silicon wafer prices rising by 8%-12% due to upstream silicon material price adjustments [2] - The differentiation in pricing among manufacturers is anticipated, with lower-cost producers gaining market advantages while higher-cost firms may face inventory buildup and financial strain [3] Challenges and Future Outlook - Despite the immediate effects of price recovery, achieving the exit of outdated production capacity and restructuring the supply side will not be a quick process [4] - The industry is currently experiencing a slowdown in demand growth, particularly after a recent surge in installations, which may limit the tolerance for price increases in the supply chain [4] - A substantial improvement in market supply-demand relationships is necessary for further price recovery in the industry chain [4] Investment Strategy - The report suggests focusing on leading companies within the PV main industry chain that possess long-term competitiveness and the potential for price and volume recovery as the industry undergoes capacity reduction [6]

Group 1 - The core objective of the "anti-involution" policy is to address low-price and disorderly competition, guiding companies to enhance product quality and promoting the orderly exit of backward production capacity, thereby optimizing and upgrading the industrial structure to improve China's global economic and industrial competitiveness [1] - The "anti-involution" policy shares similarities with the supply-side structural reform initiated in 2015, focusing on technological innovation, product differentiation, and sustainable development of the industrial chain [1] Group 2 - The macroeconomic context for "anti-involution" is more complex compared to previous reforms, and it encompasses a broader range of industries, including emerging sectors like photovoltaics and new energy vehicles, in addition to traditional industries [2] - The focus of the "anti-involution" policy is on enhancing domestic core competitiveness and transitioning from quantity competition to quality improvement, emphasizing green and low-carbon transformation [2] - The policy measures for "anti-involution" are more diversified and rely on the construction of a unified national market, emphasizing legal frameworks and fair competition, unlike the more administrative measures used in the supply-side structural reform [2] Group 3 - Both the 2015 supply-side structural reform and "anti-involution" aim to resolve structural issues in the economy, optimizing resource allocation and improving economic quality and efficiency [3] - The supply-side structural reform was primarily focused on eliminating ineffective low-end supply and optimizing economic structure, while "anti-involution" addresses the challenges of disordered low-price competition that harms cash flow and industry health [3] - The "anti-involution" initiative is expected to have a longer duration, focusing on long-term institutional construction to enhance industry competitiveness [2][3]

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese steel industry is facing challenges from "involution" competition, necessitating a collective effort from both the steel and automotive sectors to prioritize industry benefits over individual company interests [1] Group 1: Industry Challenges - The steel industry is experiencing intensified homogenization competition, leading to declining product prices and an imbalanced market structure [1] - The black industrial chain is facing a significant imbalance in profit distribution, with steel mills overly reliant on low raw material prices, while coal companies are struggling with losses due to three consecutive years of price declines [2] - The midstream trading sector lacks a "buffer" function, exacerbating short-term price volatility and hindering long-term industry stability [2] Group 2: Strategic Recommendations - To combat "involution," the focus should be on optimizing demand structure and restructuring profit distribution mechanisms to facilitate a transition towards high-quality development [2] - The current "反内卷" (anti-involution) movement emphasizes market mechanisms and industry self-discipline, promoting an increase in electric arc furnace steelmaking and technological upgrades for efficiency and green transformation [1] - The industry has made progress in capacity regulation and the exit of outdated capacity, but market supply and demand remain mismatched due to fluctuations in terminal demand [2] Group 3: Market Outlook - The "反内卷" movement is becoming a key variable influencing future market trends, with black commodity prices at relatively low levels and significant price elasticity [3] - The sustainability of the anti-involution trend will depend on the introduction of specific policies targeting the steel industry [2][3] - Without substantial policy measures, there is a risk of market sentiment cooling, which could lead to price volatility [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The overall outlook for the black building materials industry is "oscillating," with short - term prices expected to be on the stronger side [2][6]. Core Viewpoints - Macro - favorable news such as "anti - involution," Shanxi's crude steel reduction, and "urban renewal" has fermented, leading to a significant upward movement in prices. The market is dominated by macro - policy imagination during the off - season. The fundamentals have no significant contradictions, and the rally in the futures market has spurred downstream restocking, causing spot prices to rise in resonance. In the short term, prices are expected to run strongly [1][2]. - The expectation of a new round of supply - side reform for steel is increasing, and the warming market sentiment has spurred speculative demand, forming a positive feedback for the industrial chain. Against the backdrop of decent spot fundamentals, the futures market is expected to run strongly. Attention should be paid to policy implementation and off - season demand [6]. Summary by Directory Iron Element - Overseas mines have basically ended their end - of - quarter volume rush this week, with a decline in shipments. The arrival volume at 45 ports has slightly increased but fallen short of expectations, and there may be a concentrated arrival in the next 1 - 2 weeks. Steel mills' profitability has slightly improved, and the iron - making volume has decreased but remains at a high level year - on - year. Due to the lower - than - expected arrivals and high demand, port inventories have slightly decreased, and the overall supply - demand contradiction is not prominent. The market sentiment is good, and the futures price is expected to run strongly with oscillations [2]. Carbon Element - In Shanxi, the coal mines affected by previous accidents are gradually resuming supply, but some mines in Shanxi and Shaanxi are still reducing production. Overall, supply is slowly recovering. At the import end, the Mongolia - China border will be closed for 5 days starting tomorrow due to the Naadam Festival, but recent customs clearance has been at a high level, and port transactions are good. On the demand side, coke production has slightly decreased, and there is still short - term rigid demand for coking coal. Downstream procurement sentiment is positive, and the coking coal trading atmosphere is good. The overall supply - demand contradiction is not prominent at present, and attention should be paid to coal mine resumption and Mongolian coal imports [3]. Alloys Manganese Silicon - The sharp rise in coking coal futures prices has raised expectations of an increase in energy prices, strengthening the cost support for manganese silicon. Recently, the sentiment in the black chain has been positive, and the news of peak - period power rationing and the cancellation of electricity subsidies in Ningxia has caused the manganese silicon futures price to open and close higher, but this news has been proven false. Port inventories have slightly increased, and with the arrival of low - priced ores in the future, there is still room for ore prices to decline. The supply - demand relationship of manganese silicon is becoming looser, and it is more difficult to reduce inventories. In the short term, the futures price is expected to fluctuate with the sector [3][6]. Ferrosilicon - The supply - demand relationship of ferrosilicon is relatively healthy. In the short term, the futures price is expected to fluctuate with the sector. However, there is a possibility of filling the supply - demand gap in the future, increasing the difficulty of inventory reduction. Attention should be paid to the adjustment of ferrosilicon's electricity cost [6]. Glass - The news of stronger - than - expected urban renewal and a high - level urban renewal meeting has driven up the futures price. In the off - season, demand is declining, and deep - processing demand has continued to weaken. Although downstream restocking at the beginning of the month has led to good production and sales, the sustainability is to be observed. There are still 3 production lines waiting to produce glass, and daily melting is still on the rise. Upstream inventories have slightly decreased, and there are many market sentiment disturbances. The market is waiting and seeing, and the long - term over - supply pattern is difficult to change. Enterprises are advised to seize the short - term positive feedback hedging opportunities [6]. Steel - The supply - side contraction expectation formed by the "anti - involution" policy and Shanxi's production - limit news, as well as the demand - side improvement expectation such as "urban renewal," have jointly promoted the futures market to be strong. After the futures rally, spot trading sentiment has improved. This week, the supply and demand of rebar have both decreased, and inventory has continued to decline; the supply and demand of hot - rolled coils have both decreased, and inventory has slightly increased; the supply and demand of the five major steel products have both decreased, and inventory changes are limited, with the absolute inventory at a relatively low level over the years. In the short term, with the warming of the macro - sentiment and no obvious negative factors in the fundamentals, steel prices are expected to run strongly. Attention should be paid to policy implementation and off - season demand [9]. Iron Ore - The port trading volume has decreased. From the fundamental perspective, overseas mines have basically ended their end - of - quarter volume rush this week, with a decline in shipments. The arrival volume at 45 ports has slightly increased but fallen short of expectations, and there may be a concentrated arrival in the next 1 - 2 weeks. Steel mills' profitability has slightly improved, and the iron - making volume has decreased but remains at a high level year - on - year. Due to the lower - than - expected arrivals and high demand, port inventories have slightly decreased, and the overall supply - demand contradiction is not prominent. With good market sentiment and decent fundamentals, the futures price is expected to run strongly with oscillations. Before the market sentiment weakens, the price is likely to rise rather than fall [9][10]. Scrap Steel - The fundamentals are stable, and the price is oscillating. The apparent demand and production of rebar have slightly decreased, in line with off - season characteristics, and the total inventory has continued to decline, indicating some resilience in off - season demand. After the market sentiment has warmed up, raw material prices have risen significantly, and the futures price has oscillated upward. This week, the average daily arrival volume of scrap steel has slightly increased but is still lower than the same period last year, and resources are slightly tight. After the rise in steel prices, the profitability of some electric furnaces has recovered, and the daily consumption of scrap steel in electric furnaces has slightly increased; the iron - making volume of blast furnaces has slightly decreased, and the daily consumption of scrap steel in long - process production has also decreased. Although the arrival volume has slightly increased this week, the daily consumption is at a relatively high level in the same period, and factory inventories have slightly decreased [10]. Coke - The futures price of coke has strengthened following coking coal. On the supply side, most coke enterprises are maintaining normal production, while a small number of enterprises with poor profitability have reduced production, and coke production has slightly decreased. On the demand side, the average daily iron - making volume has decreased this week but remains at a high level year - on - year. Steel mills' profitability is good, and they are actively restocking. Recently, the futures market has been strong, and arbitrage demand has been actively purchasing, leading to a rapid reduction in coke inventories of coke enterprises. The current supply - demand pattern of coke has further improved. In the short term, coke prices are likely to rise rather than fall under the strong pull of raw coal prices [10][11][13]. Coking Coal - Market sentiment has been high, and coking coal prices have continued to rise. On the supply side, coal mines affected by previous accidents in Shanxi are gradually resuming supply, but some mines in Shanxi and Shaanxi are still reducing production, and overall supply is slowly recovering. At the import end, the Mongolia - China border will be closed for 5 days starting tomorrow due to the Naadam Festival, but recent customs clearance has been at a high level, and port transactions are good. On the demand side, coke production has slightly decreased, and there is still short - term rigid demand for coking coal. Downstream procurement sentiment is positive, and the coking coal trading atmosphere is good. The overall supply - demand contradiction is not prominent at present, and attention should be paid to coal mine resumption and Mongolian coal imports. Upstream coal mines are still reducing inventories, and the positive market sentiment remains, so the futures market is expected to be supported in the short term [11][12][13]. Glass - The news of stronger - than - expected urban renewal has driven up the futures price. In the off - season, demand is declining, and deep - processing demand has continued to weaken. Although downstream restocking at the beginning of the month has led to good production and sales, the sustainability is to be observed. There are still 3 production lines waiting to produce glass, and daily melting is still on the rise. Upstream inventories have slightly decreased, and there are many market sentiment disturbances. The market is waiting and seeing. In the short term, one should wait and see the pace and intensity of policy introduction. If policies continue to exceed expectations, downstream expectations may improve, leading to a wave of restocking and price increases. In the long run, market - oriented capacity reduction is still needed, and the market is expected to oscillate [14]. Soda Ash - The supply - side over - supply pattern has not changed. The market has spread the news of "anti - involution" in the photovoltaic industry, with an expected significant reduction in daily melting, and the current daily melting of photovoltaic glass has slightly decreased, and the demand for heavy soda ash has flattened, with weak demand expectations. The downstream demand for light soda ash is weak, and manufacturers have continued to cut prices. Sentiment is interfering with the futures market, and the long - term over - supply pattern is difficult to change. Although the short - term "anti - involution" sentiment has driven up the futures price, the over - supply problem still exists after the positive feedback. Enterprises are advised to seize the short - term positive feedback hedging opportunities. In July, there are planned maintenance activities, and in the short term, it is expected to oscillate. In the long run, the price center will continue to decline to promote capacity reduction [6][14][16]. Manganese Silicon - The sharp rise in coking coal futures prices has raised expectations of an increase in energy prices, strengthening the cost support for manganese silicon. Recently, the sentiment in the black chain has been positive, and the news of peak - period power rationing and the cancellation of electricity subsidies in Ningxia has caused the manganese silicon futures price to open and close higher, but this news has been proven false. Port inventories have slightly increased, and with the arrival of low - priced ores in the future, there is still room for ore prices to decline. The supply - demand relationship of manganese silicon is becoming looser, and it is more difficult to reduce inventories. In the short term, the futures price is expected to fluctuate with the sector [3][6][16]. Ferrosilicon - The sharp rise in coking coal futures prices has raised expectations of an increase in energy prices, strengthening the cost support for ferrosilicon. Recently, the sentiment in the black chain has been positive, and the news of peak - period power rationing and the cancellation of electricity subsidies in Ningxia and Qinghai has caused the ferrosilicon futures price to rise strongly, but this news has been proven false. During the steel tender period, the amount of low - priced goods in the market has decreased, and the strong futures market has driven up the spot price. The cost support for ferrosilicon has weakened. The supply of ferrosilicon is increasing. The downstream demand for steelmaking remains resilient. Attention should be paid to the price of this round of steel tenders. The current supply - demand relationship of ferrosilicon is relatively healthy. In the short term, the futures price is expected to fluctuate with the sector. However, there is a possibility of filling the supply - demand gap in the future, increasing the difficulty of inventory reduction. Attention should be paid to the adjustment of ferrosilicon's electricity cost [18][19].