1. Report Industry Investment Ratings There is no information provided about the report industry investment ratings in the given content. 2. Core Views - The market conditions of various commodities are complex and diverse, with different trends and influencing factors in different sectors. For example, in the base metals market, aluminum prices are expected to be weak in the short - term, while alumina shows a strong - reality and weak - expectation pattern. In the energy and chemical market, the supply - demand relationship and price trends of different products vary, and factors such as new device production, downstream demand, and international policies have significant impacts on prices [1][6]. - In the agricultural product market, the prices of different products are affected by factors such as supply, demand, weather, and trade policies. For example, the price of soybeans is affected by South American and American production and trade policies, and the price of corn is expected to stabilize and rebound [3]. - In the shipping market, the Geneva Conference has brought changes to the shipping market, with different trends in the US and European routes, and the short - term EC is expected to be strong, but there are risks of insufficient demand [8]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Base Metals Aluminum - Market performance: The closing price of the electrolytic aluminum 2507 contract increased by 0.40% to 20,270 yuan/ton, and the domestic 0 - 3 month spread was 260 yuan/ton. The LME price was 2,458 US dollars/ton [1]. - Fundamentals: Electrolytic aluminum plants maintained high - load production, and the operating capacity increased slightly. The aluminum product operating rate decreased slightly [1]. - Trading strategy: In the short - term, the actual consumption of aluminum is weakening. Although the tariff issue has eased, it takes time to affect physical demand. Aluminum prices are expected to be weak and volatile. It is recommended to wait and see [1]. Alumina - Market performance: The closing price of the alumina 2509 contract decreased by 0.92% to 3,216 yuan/ton, and the domestic 0 - 3 month spread was - 105 yuan/ton [1]. - Fundamentals: Alumina plants had more phased maintenance and production cuts, and the operating capacity decreased. Electrolytic aluminum plants maintained high - load production, and the operating capacity increased slightly [1]. - Trading strategy: In the short - term, alumina shows a strong - reality and weak - expectation pattern due to Guinea's policy disturbances. It is recommended to buy call options for the near - term contract. If holding spot or futures long positions, sell out - of - the - money put options to reduce the premium cost [1]. Zinc - Market performance: The closing price of the zinc 2506 contract decreased by 0.55% to 22,455 yuan/ton. The domestic 0 - 3 month spread was 330 yuan/ton Back, and the overseas 0 - 3 month spread was 28.9 US dollars/ton Con. The social inventory decreased by 0.34 tons to 8.04 tons from May 19th to May 22nd [1]. - Fundamentals: The Russian Longxing Mine may face shutdown risks in June. Imported zinc ingots are arriving in China, but the import volume may be less than expected. The consumption is in the off - season, and the social inventory is increasing [1]. - Trading strategy: In the future, as some smelters end their maintenance and imported zinc ingots arrive, zinc prices may fall due to insufficient consumption support [1]. Lead - Market performance: The closing price of the lead 2506 contract decreased by 1.36% to 16,670 yuan/ton. The domestic 0 - 3 month spread was 0 yuan/ton Con, and the LME 0 - 3 month spread was 26.12 US dollars/ton Con. The social inventory decreased by 0.88 tons to 5.03 tons from May 19th to May 22nd [1]. - Fundamentals: The production of primary lead enterprises was relatively stable, and the inventory of factories decreased. The loss of secondary lead was slightly repaired, and the discount of secondary refined lead may increase. The production of lead - acid battery enterprises changed little, and the spot market transaction was difficult to improve significantly [1]. - Trading strategy: After the consumption enters the off - season, terminal orders are difficult to improve. It is recommended to buy when the price falls to the low point of the range [2]. Industrial Silicon - Market performance: The 2507 contract closed at 7,880 yuan, up 15 yuan from the previous day. The position decreased by 9,112 lots to 183,700 lots [2]. - Fundamentals: The supply is strong and the demand is weak. The resumption of production in Sichuan is obvious, and there are production cuts in Xinjiang. The demand for polysilicon has no increase, and the organic silicon industry may enter the annual maintenance stage [2]. - Trading strategy: Since the industry has not implemented effective and continuous production cuts, it is recommended to short on rebounds [2]. Lithium Carbonate - Market performance: The main 2507 contract closed at 62,140 yuan/ton, up 1.70% [2]. - Fundamentals: The supply - demand surplus situation has been alleviated but still exists. The weekly output of lithium carbonate decreased by 3.23% to 16,093 tons, and the estimated monthly output in May decreased by 2.27% to 72,134 tons. The demand growth is lower than expected, and the social inventory decreased by 141 tons to 131,779 tons this week [2]. - Trading strategy: In the short - term, the supply - demand surplus is alleviated, and the price is expected to fluctuate or rebound slightly. In the long - term, the demand expectation is pessimistic. It is recommended to hold short positions or short on rebounds [2]. Polysilicon - Market performance: The PS2507 contract closed at 36,080 yuan/ton, up 220 yuan from the previous day. The position increased by 3,806 lots to 77,300 lots, and the warehouse receipt increased by 10 lots to 460 lots [2]. - Fundamentals: The downstream demand is weak, and the inventory pressure is large. The supply - side production cut rumors need to be confirmed. In the long - term, the demand may decline, and the price center may move down [2]. - Trading strategy: If there is no further production cut, it is recommended to short on rebounds for the 07 contract [2]. Agricultural Products Soybean Meal - Market performance: The overnight CBOT soybeans rose without a strong driving force [3]. - Fundamentals: The supply in South America is loose in the near - term, and the sowing of new US soybeans is going smoothly. The demand is dominated by South America in the short - term, and the high - frequency demand of US soybeans is seasonally weak [3]. - Trading strategy: US soybeans are expected to be volatile, and the medium - term driving force lies in the yield game. The domestic soybean price may rebound due to customs clearance disturbances and follow the international market in the medium - term [3]. Corn - Market performance: The corn 2507 contract fluctuated narrowly, and the price of deep - processed corn decreased [3]. - Fundamentals: The supply - demand relationship has tightened marginally this year. The grain rights have transferred to channels, and the import of substitutes is expected to decrease. The futures price has fallen to a level with cost - performance compared to wheat and is expected to stabilize and rebound [3]. - Trading strategy: The futures price is supported near the minimum purchase price of wheat and is expected to gradually stabilize and rebound [3]. Sugar - Market performance: The Zhengzhou sugar 09 contract closed at 5,835 yuan/ton, down 0.6%. The basis of Guangxi spot - Zhengzhou sugar 05 contract was - 30 yuan/ton [4]. - Fundamentals: The global sugar market is expected to have a surplus in the 25/26 crushing season. The domestic sugar market is in the pure sales period, and the inventory is low. The import profit has opened, and the domestic sugar mills' pricing may put pressure on the far - month contracts [4]. - Trading strategy: The price may rebound in the short - term and be bearish in the long - term [4]. Cotton - Market performance: The overnight US cotton price fell, and the international oil price continued to weaken. The domestic Zhengzhou cotton price continued to rise [4]. - Fundamentals: The national commercial cotton inventory decreased by 318,600 tons to 3.834 million tons from the end of April to May 15th, a decrease of 7.67% [4]. - Trading strategy: It is recommended to wait and see and adopt a range - bound trading strategy [4]. Palm Oil - Market performance: The Malaysian palm oil market fell yesterday [4]. - Fundamentals: The supply in the production area is in the seasonal increase period, and the export has improved month - on - month. The ITS shows that the export from May 1st to 20th increased by 5.3% month - on - month [4]. - Trading strategy: The market is in a weak seasonal stage but not in a clear trend. It is necessary to pay attention to the production in the production area and the biodiesel policy [4]. Eggs - Market performance: The egg 2506 contract and the egg spot price both fell [4]. - Fundamentals: The breeding is in a loss state, and the number of old hens to be culled is expected to increase. The supply remains high, and the demand is weak. The price is expected to fluctuate due to cost support [4]. - Trading strategy: The futures price is expected to fluctuate due to sufficient supply and cost support [4]. Hogs - Market performance: The hog 2509 contract and the hog spot price both fell [4]. - Fundamentals: The hog supply continues to increase, the farmers' intention to hold and fatten hogs decreases, and the hog price is expected to fall gradually due to the increase in supply and the off - season demand [4]. - Trading strategy: The hog price is expected to decline gradually, and it is necessary to pay attention to the farmers' slaughter rhythm and the second - fattening trend [4]. Apples - Market performance: The price of apples is affected by extreme weather, and the market is worried about the new - season production [4]. - Fundamentals: The new - season apple production in the main production areas, especially in Shaanxi, is affected by hot and dry winds and cold snaps, and the fruit - setting is a problem. The current inventory is low, and the price is expected to remain high in the short - term. It is necessary to pay attention to the bagging situation at the end of May and the apple consumption [4]. - Trading strategy: It is recommended to wait and see [4]. Energy and Chemicals LLDPE - Market performance: The main LLDPE contract fell slightly yesterday. The North China low - price spot was 7,220 yuan/ton, the 09 basis was 40 yuan higher than the futures price, and the basis weakened [6]. - Fundamentals: The supply is increasing as new devices are put into production, and the import is expected to decrease slightly. The demand for agricultural films is in the off - season, and other demands are stable. The Sino - US tariff negotiation is positive, and attention should be paid to the export situation [6]. - Trading strategy: In the short - term, the market will be volatile, and in the long - term, it is recommended to short on rebounds for the far - month contracts as the supply - demand relationship becomes looser [6]. PTA - Market performance: The PXCFR China price was 823 US dollars/ton, equivalent to 6,821 yuan/ton in RMB. The PTA East China spot price was 4,860 yuan/ton, and the spot basis was 127 yuan/ton [6]. - Fundamentals: The supply of PX is low, and the supply of PTA is increasing. The polyester load is at a historical high, and the inventory is at a historical low. The polyester factories have announced production cut plans [6]. - Trading strategy: The PX and PTA are in a de - stocking pattern. It is recommended to take profits on long - short spreads and be cautious about unilateral trading. Pay attention to the short - position opportunities for far - month PTA [6]. Rubber - Market performance: The main RU2509 contract fell 0.3% to 14,810 yuan/ton on Thursday [6]. - Fundamentals: The price of Thai glue remained unchanged, and the price of cup glue decreased. The spot trading was average. The operating rate of tire enterprises increased slightly [6]. - Trading strategy: The price is expected to be weak and volatile. It is recommended to wait and see or short on rebounds [6]. Methanol - Market performance: The methanol 2509 contract closed at 2,241 yuan/ton, down 1.28% from the previous day [6]. - Fundamentals: The coal price is falling, and the cost support is weak. The domestic methanol production capacity utilization rate has increased significantly, and the import is expected to recover. The demand from the olefin sector is weak, and the traditional demand is stable but has passed the peak season. The coastal inventory is at a low level but is increasing [6][7]. - Trading strategy: In the short - term, the supply is strong and the demand is weak, and it is recommended to adopt a short - position strategy for the 09 contract [7]. PP - Market performance: The main PP contract fell slightly yesterday. The East China PP spot price was 7,120 yuan/ton, the 09 basis was 120 yuan higher than the futures price, and the basis was stable [7]. - Fundamentals: The supply is increasing as the short - term maintenance is ending, new devices are put into production, and the import of LPG and the operation of PDH devices are normalizing. The demand from downstream industries such as home appliances and automobiles is affected by the Sino - US tariff negotiation [7]. - Trading strategy: In the short - term, the market will be volatile, and in the long - term, it is recommended to short on rebounds for the far - month contracts as the supply - demand relationship becomes looser [7]. MEG - Market performance: The MEG East China spot price was 4,501 yuan/ton, and the spot basis was 96 yuan/ton [7]. - Fundamentals: The supply has decreased due to unexpected device maintenance, and the import is expected to be normal. The polyester load is at a historical high, and the inventory is at a historical low. The polyester factories have announced production cut plans [7]. - Trading strategy: The price is expected to be strong in the short - term, but it is recommended to be cautious about long positions as the valuation is high [7]. Crude Oil - Market performance: The oil price fell again yesterday. The focus of trading is on the OPEC+ meeting on June 1st and the fifth - round negotiation between the US and Iran tonight [7]. - Fundamentals: If OPEC+ decides to increase production by 410,000 barrels per day, the oil price may fall; if the production increase stops, the oil price may rebound. If the US - Iran negotiation fails, the oil price may rise; if an agreement is reached, the Iranian production may increase by 500,000 barrels per day, which is negative for the oil price [7]. Benzene and Styrene - Market performance: The main contract fell slightly yesterday. The East China spot price was 7,700 yuan/ton, and the import window was closed [7]. - Fundamentals: The inventory of pure benzene is normal and is expected to increase slightly in May. The inventory of styrene is low and is expected to change from a slight increase to a slight decrease in May. The downstream profit is in a loss state, and the inventory of finished products is decreasing. The home appliance production in May is okay, and the export of plastic products and home appliances may accelerate due to the Sino - US tariff negotiation [7]. - Trading strategy: In the short - term, the market will be volatile, and it is recommended to conduct long - short spreads on the monthly difference [7]. Shipping European Line Container Shipping - Market performance: After the Geneva Conference, the main contract fell 0.95%. Most shipowners announced to increase the European line freight rate on June 1st [8]. - Fundamentals: The US - China tariff reduction has led to an increase in the US - line cargo volume, but the European - line cargo volume is still moderate. The shipowners will adjust the US - line supply, and new large - scale European - line ships are still being launched [8]. - Trading strategy: The short - term EC is expected to be strong, but it is necessary to prevent the freight rate from not meeting expectations due to insufficient demand. It is recommended to conduct long - short spreads for the 06 contract [8].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The overall commodity futures market shows a complex trend, with different metals, industrial products, agricultural products, energy chemicals, and shipping sectors having their own supply - demand situations and price trends. For example, some metals are affected by macro - policies and geopolitical events, while agricultural products are influenced by factors such as weather, trade policies, and seasonal demand [1][5][7]. Summary by Category Basic Metals - **Copper**: Yesterday, copper prices fluctuated strongly. The global capital is loose, and the rise in gold and oil prices also boosts copper prices. The domestic back is still strong, indicating tightness in the near - term. It is recommended to buy on dips [1]. - **Aluminum**: The 2507 contract of electrolytic aluminum closed down 0.17% at 20,075 yuan/ton. The supply is increasing slightly, and the demand is weakening. Aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see [1]. - **Alumina**: The 2509 contract of alumina closed up 0.22% at 3,134 yuan/ton. The supply is decreasing, and the demand is increasing. It shows a pattern of strong reality and weak expectation, and corresponding option strategies and short - selling operations are recommended [1]. - **Zinc**: The 2506 contract of zinc closed down 0.09% at 22,435 yuan/ton. There is a risk of mine shutdown, and the actual import volume may be lower than expected. Consumption is in the off - season, and zinc prices may fall [1]. - **Lead**: The 2506 contract of lead closed down 0.09% at 16,845 yuan/ton. Consumption is in the off - season, and lead prices are expected to fall in the short term and maintain range - bound in the medium term [2]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The 2507 contract of industrial silicon hit a new low, closing at 7,940 yuan. The supply is strong and the demand is weak. It is recommended to short on rebounds [2]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The 2507 contract of lithium carbonate closed down 0.88% at 60,860 yuan/ton. The supply is in excess, and the demand growth is lower than expected. It is recommended to hold short positions or short on rebounds [2]. - **Polysilicon**: The PS2507 contract of polysilicon closed at 35,625 yuan/ton, down 425 yuan. The downstream demand is weak, and the inventory pressure is large. It is expected to fluctuate at the bottom in the short term, and relevant trading strategies are recommended [2]. - **Tin**: Tin prices fluctuated strongly. The global capital is loose, and the inventory is decreasing rapidly. It is recommended to buy on dips [2]. Black Industry - **Rebar**: The 2510 contract of rebar closed at 3,061 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan. The supply - demand of steel is balanced, but the macro - sentiment is deteriorating. It is recommended to close short positions and conduct relevant arbitrage operations [4]. - **Iron Ore**: The 2509 contract of iron ore closed at 724.5 yuan/ton, up 2.5 yuan. The supply - demand is neutral to strong in the short term, but the medium - term surplus pattern remains unchanged. It is recommended to close short positions and try long positions [4]. - **Coking Coal**: The 2509 contract of coking coal closed at 844.5 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan. The supply - demand is relatively loose, and the futures are at a premium. It is recommended to wait and see [4]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean Meal**: The CBOT soybean rose overnight. The supply in South America is loose in the near - term, and the sowing of new US soybeans is going well. The domestic soybean is weak in the short term and will follow the international market in the medium term [5]. - **Corn**: The 2507 contract of corn is running weakly. The annual supply - demand is tightening marginally, but the short - term spot sentiment may cool down. The futures price is expected to fluctuate and consolidate [5]. - **Sugar**: The 09 contract of Zhengzhou sugar closed at 5,851 yuan/ton, down 0.14%. The global sugar market is expected to be in surplus in the 25/26 season. It is expected to rebound in the short term and be bearish in the future [6]. - **Cotton**: The US cotton price rebounded, and the domestic cotton price also recovered. It is recommended to wait and see and adopt a range - bound strategy [6]. - **Palm Oil**: The Malaysian palm oil market rose. The supply is in the seasonal increase period, and the demand is improving. It is in a weak seasonal stage with no major contradictions [6]. - **Eggs**: The 2507 contract of eggs rebounded, and the spot price was stable. The supply is strong, the demand is weak, and the cost provides support. The futures price is expected to fluctuate [6]. - **Hogs**: The 2509 contract of hogs fluctuated narrowly, and the spot price fell slightly. The supply is increasing, and the demand is in the off - season. The futures price is expected to decline [6]. - **Apples**: The main apple contract closed at 7,784 yuan/ton, up 0.37%. The new - season apple production may be affected by weather, and the market is volatile. It is recommended to wait and see [6]. Energy Chemicals - **LLDPE**: The main LLDPE contract fell slightly. The supply is increasing, and the demand is affected by the off - season and trade policies. It is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term and be shorted on highs in the long term [7]. - **PVC**: The V09 contract of PVC closed at 4,937 yuan, down 0.3%. The supply is large, and the demand is weakening. It is recommended to close short positions and wait and see [7]. - **PTA**: The PX supply is low, and the PTA supply is increasing. The polyester industry has a high load but low profits. It is recommended to take appropriate profit - taking on long - short spreads and be cautious about unilateral trading [7]. - **Glass**: The FG09 contract of glass closed at 1,018 yuan, up 0.2%. The supply is rigid, the inventory is accumulating, and the price is weakening. It is recommended to sell out - of - the - money call options above 1,250 [7]. - **PP**: The main PP contract fluctuated slightly. The supply is increasing, and the demand is expected to improve. It is expected to fluctuate in the short term and be shorted on highs in the long term [8]. - **MEG**: The MEG supply is at a medium level, and the inventory is decreasing. The polyester industry has a high load but low profits. The price is expected to be strong, but caution is needed for long positions [8]. - **Styrene**: The styrene market is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term, and long - short spreads are recommended. The supply is expected to increase, and the demand may be boosted by trade policies [8]. - **Soda Ash**: The SA09 contract of soda ash closed at 1,277 yuan, down 0.4%. The supply is decreasing due to maintenance, and the demand from photovoltaic glass is weakening. It is recommended to sell out - of - the - money call options at 1,600 [8]. Shipping - **European Line Container Shipping**: The main contract rose 1.32%. After the Geneva meeting, tariffs were reduced, and most shipowners announced a price increase on June 1. The demand in the US line has recovered, but the European line is still moderate. The short - term EC is expected to fluctuate strongly, and 8 - 10 long - short spreads are recommended, with caution for the 06 contract [9][10].

基本金属 | | 招商评论 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 市场表现：昨日铜价震荡偏强运行。基本面：昨日在穆迪下调美国主权信用评级后，美元走弱明显，贵金属 | | | | | | 铜 | | 和铜得到支撑。供应端，铜矿紧张格局延续。换月后，现货紧张格局延续，华东华南平水铜现货升水 420 元 | | | | | | | | 和 220 元，back 结构依然偏强。周度国内库存增加 0.72 万吨。交易策略：以宽幅震荡思路对待。风险提示： | | | | | | | | 全球需求不及预期。仅供参考。 | | | | | | | | 市场表现：昨日电解铝 2507 合约收盘价较前一交易日-0.20%，收于 20110 元/吨，国内 0-3 月差 170 元/吨， | | | | | | | | LME 价格 2450 美元/吨。 | | | | | | | | 基本面：供应方面，电解铝厂维持高负荷生产，运行产能小幅上升。需求方面，铝材开工率小幅下降。 | | | | | | 铝 | | | | | | | | | | 题有 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货煤焦早报（2025 年 5 月 20 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 焦煤 | 2509 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 震荡思路 | 产量高位运行，焦煤维持弱势 | | 焦炭 | 2509 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 震荡思路 | 市场氛围偏空，焦炭低位震荡 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货黑色板块 品种：焦煤（JM） 日内观点：震荡偏弱 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：震荡思路 核心逻辑：统计局数据显示，4 月全国原煤产量 3.89 ...

Group 1 - The core point of the news is the significant price movements in various commodities, particularly the sharp increase in alumina prices due to supply disruptions, while other commodities like lithium carbonate and焦煤 experienced declines [1][2]. - Alumina contracts hit the limit up with a 6.25% increase, driven by supply concerns after Guinea's mining authority ordered a halt at the Axis mine, affecting an annual capacity of approximately 40 million tons [2]. - The overall commodity futures price index showed a slight decline, with the China Commodity Futures Price Index closing at 1355.25 points, down 0.28% from the previous trading day [1]. Group 2 - The supply issues in alumina are expected to provide short-term support for prices, but the long-term outlook remains uncertain due to potential oversupply as production may recover with rising prices [2]. - The double焦 and lithium carbonate prices have reached new lows, with lithium facing a downward spiral due to weak downstream demand [4]. - The egg futures market has seen a decline, with expectations of weak prices continuing due to increasing supply pressures and seasonal demand fluctuations [4].

现货价格及基差 品种 5月16日 5月15日 涨跌 涨跌幅 单位 云南国营全乳胶(SCRWF):上海 14950 15000 -50 -0.33% 全乳基差(切换至2509合约) 45 -90 135 150.00% 元/吨 泰标混合胶报价 14600 14800 -200 -1.35% 非标价差 -305 -290 -15 -5.17% 品种 5月16日 5月15日 涨跌幅 单位 涨跌 杯胶：国际市场：FOB中间价 54.20 54.15 0.05 0.09% 泰铢/公斤 胶水:国际市场:FOB中间价 62.25 61.75 0.50 0.81% 天然橡胶:胶块:西双版纳州 13500 13300 200 1.50% 天然橡胶：胶水：西双版纳州 13700 0.73% 13800 100 元/吨 原料：市场主流价：海南 13500 13500 0 0.00% 外胶原料：市场主流价：海南 9000 9000 0.00 0.00% 月间价差 合约 5月16日 5月15日 涨跌幅 单位 涨跌 9-1价差 -835 -820 -15 -1.83% 1-5价差 -170 1050 -1220 -116.19% 元/吨 ...

宝城期货煤焦早报（2025 年 5 月 19 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 焦煤 | 2509 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 震荡思路 | 供应维持高位，焦煤偏弱震荡 | | 焦炭 | 2509 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 震荡思路 | 多空博弈，焦炭低位震荡 | 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货黑色板块 品种：焦煤（JM） 日内观点：震荡偏弱 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：震荡思路 核心逻辑：本周，焦煤产量、进口量均未见收缩，供应端压力居高不 ...

Group 1 - The domestic commodity market showed a general decline on the 16th, with only a few products like silicon iron, gold, and silver experiencing slight gains [2] - Gold and silver prices saw a minor rebound due to significant overnight gains in overseas precious metals, but were limited by exchange rate factors and a drop in overseas prices during the Asian session [2] - Silicon iron prices rose by 0.92% on the 16th, supported by a reduction in supply, as indicated by a decline in the operating rates and daily production of independent silicon iron enterprises [2] Group 2 - The European shipping line experienced a downturn after a period of significant increases, attributed to supply pressures and a lack of seasonal demand support [3] - The oil prices continued to decline due to increased supply expectations and a rise in U.S. inventory data, alongside potential agreements between the U.S. and Iran [4] - Carbonate lithium prices fell over 4%, driven by a continued decrease in lithium ore prices and a weak demand outlook, with expectations of oversupply persisting into June [4]

截至15日下午收盘，中证商品期货价格指数收报1359.67点，较前一交易日下跌14.42点，跌幅1.05%； 中证商品期货指数收报1881.69点，较前一交易日下跌19.10点，跌幅1.00%。 油价显著回落贵金属继续走弱 利空消息共振影响下，市场对原油供应宽松预期加强，国际油价在隔夜市场走低，SC原油今日跟随下 跌，以4.98%的跌幅领跌国内商品市场。美国能源信息局最新发布的数据显示，美国上周商业原油库存 量为4.418亿桶，环比增加350万桶，而此前市场预期为减少110万桶。此外，欧佩克月度报告将2025年 全球日均石油需求较上年增长量预期从145万桶下调至130万桶；同时据市场消息显示，5月3日的 OPEC+会议后，成员国同意6月继续加速增产41.1万桶／日，并且相关消息表明OPEC+可能在7月再次加 速增产41.1万桶／日。而消息面，美伊方面可能达成协议的市场预期进一步加剧了对原油供应过剩的担 忧。多重利空消息令油价重挫。展望后市，正信期货表示，全球贸易冲突缓和带来的向上驱动落地，后 续油价或主要被地缘和欧佩克+所引导，地缘趋于缓和及欧佩克+增产带来的中长期供应过剩矛盾仍难 缓解。因此利多落地后，油价 ...

1、现货市场：日照嘉吉一级豆油 8130 元/吨，较上一交易日持平。 2、国际大豆：当前时间窗口下，正处美豆播种、省长与南美豆收割、出口季，目前巴西豆 收割基本完成。总体来看，南美新作丰产格局或将大概率成为事实。美国农业部 5 月 US DA 报告显示，2025/26 年度大豆单产预估为 52.5 蒲式耳/英亩，2024/25 年度预估为 50.7 蒲式 耳/英亩。 3、国内产业层面：综合供需端，豆油中期去库周期或逐渐进入尾声阶段，关注后市南美进 口大豆到港、海关检验放行后，豆油库存或低位反弹。 4、参考观点：豆油 2509 合约，短线或区间震荡整理。 现货信息：43 豆粕各地区现货报价：张家港 3000 元/吨（10）、天津 3040 元/吨（-40）、 日照 2950 元/吨（-60）、东莞 3070 元/吨（20）。 市场分析：（1）宏观面: 中美经贸会谈将在瑞士进行，关注会谈内容。 （2）国际大豆：USDA5 月报告发布，美豆产量下调，全球库存增加。市场交易重心转移至 北美播种季，巴西大豆进入出口高峰期。 （3）国内豆粕供需面：大豆供给逐渐恢复，油厂开机率提升，豆粕供给预期由紧转为宽松。 下游贸易商物 ...