大豆市场"明牌增产"为何不敢跌？巴西玉米收获延迟，短期供应缺口风险几何？ 相关链接 期货热点追踪 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views Crude Oil - Overnight international oil prices rose slightly, but the market lacks strong drivers. The main logic is the dynamic game between OPEC+ production - increase expectations and Russia - sanction risks. - In the short - term, observe opportunities to short on rebounds. WTI is expected to fluctuate in the range of [59, 69], Brent in [61, 71], and SC in [440, 500]. In the medium - to - long - term, adopt a band - trading strategy. [2] Methanol - The inland methanol market has downward valuation pressure. After the spring maintenance, production has recovered, and downstream profits are divided. The port has entered a inventory - accumulation period. - Suggest to short MA09 contract on rallies. [5] LLDPE and PP - Spot prices continue to fall, and overall trading is weak. LLDPE has inventory - reduction expectations before early June, while PP will face increasing supply pressure after late May. - Short PP on rallies; the LP spread is expected to widen. [9] Urea - The urea market is expected to fluctuate between 1800 - 1900 yuan/ton around the Dragon Boat Festival. Pay attention to signals such as wheat - harvest progress in northern Anhui, port pre - collection scale, and the operating rate of Shanxi's fixed - bed plants. [19] Styrene - The pure benzene market price is weak, but there is an expected turnaround as styrene plants resume operation. - The styrene port inventory has started to accumulate, and the 3S products have limited driving force. Adopt a short - selling strategy for near - month contracts. [30] Polyester Industry - **PX**: Supply is increasing, but short - term support is strong. Consider a long - position around 6600 and a short - spread between PX9 - 1. - **PTA**: Supply - demand is weakening, but support is strong at low processing fees. Pay attention to polyester production cuts. Consider a long - position around 4600 and a short - spread between TA9 - 1. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Supply is expected to contract, and inventory is decreasing. Adopt a wait - and - see strategy for single - side trading and a long - spread strategy for EG9 - 1. - **Short - fiber**: Processing fees may recover. Follow PTA's single - side strategy and expand the processing - fee spread. - **Bottle - chip**: Supply and demand are both increasing. Follow PTA's single - side strategy and expand the processing - fee spread in the 350 - 550 yuan/ton range. [34] Chlor - alkali Industry - **Caustic Soda**: Short - term supply pressure is limited, and demand from the alumina industry is expected to increase. However, there are risks from non - aluminum demand and high valuations. Adopt a wait - and - see strategy for single - side trading and a long - spread strategy for 6 - 9 contracts. - **PVC**: The market is weak due to poor sentiment. Long - term contradictions are prominent, but short - term supply pressure is limited. Adopt a wait - and - see strategy for single - side trading and a short - selling strategy for the 09 contract above 5100. [39][40] 3. Summary by Catalog Crude Oil - **Prices and Spreads**: Brent decreased by 0.65 to 64.09 dollars/barrel (-1.00%); WTI increased by 0.35 to 61.24 dollars/barrel (0.57%); SC decreased by 3.90 to 453.50 yuan/barrel (-0.85%). [2] - **Product Prices and Spreads**: NYM RBOB increased by 0.40 to 207.55 cents/gallon (0.19%); NYM ULSD increased by 0.50 to 208.44 cents/gallon (0.24%); ICE Gasoil decreased by 3.75 to 606.00 dollars/ton (-0.62%). [2] - **Product Crack Spreads**: Most crack spreads showed small changes, with some increasing and some decreasing. [2] Methanol - **Prices and Spreads**: MA2505 decreased by 64 to 2229 yuan/ton (-2.79%); the MA2505 - 2509 spread decreased by 48 to 21 yuan/ton (-69.57%). - **Inventory**: Methanol enterprise inventory decreased by 0.2 to 33.401% (-0.52%); port inventory increased by 0.6 to 49.0 million tons (1.34%). - **Operating Rates**: The upstream domestic enterprise operating rate decreased by 1.0 to 74.51% (-1.31%); the downstream external - procurement MTO device operating rate increased by 7.9 to 83.54% (10.39%). [5] LLDPE and PP - **Prices and Spreads**: L2505 decreased by 73 to 6986 yuan/ton (-1.03%); PP2509 decreased by 33 to 6896 yuan/ton (-0.48%). - **Operating Rates**: PE device operating rate decreased by 1.43 to 78.0% (-1.80%); PP device operating rate increased by 0.28 to 76.8% (0.4%). - **Inventory**: PE enterprise inventory decreased by 2.94 to 49.8 million tons (-5.57%); PP enterprise inventory decreased by 1.12 to 59.3 million tons (-1.85%). [9] Urea - **Futures Prices**: 01, 05, and 09 contracts all showed slight decreases. - **Raw Material and Production Costs**: Most raw material prices were stable, with synthetic ammonia decreasing by 50 to 2120 yuan/ton (-2.30%). - **Supply and Demand**: Domestic urea daily production increased by 0.30 to 20.48 million tons (1.49%); factory inventory increased by 10.02 to 91.74 million tons (12.26%). [14][17][19] Styrene - **Upstream Prices**: Brent crude oil (July) decreased by 0.6 to 64.1 dollars/barrel (-1.0%); CFR Japan naphtha increased by 1.0 to 567.0 dollars/ton (0.2%). - **Spot and Futures Prices**: Styrene's East - China spot price increased by 75 to 7900 yuan/ton (1.0%); EB2506 decreased by 28 to 7313 yuan/ton (-0.4%). - **Inventory and Operating Rates**: Pure benzene port inventory increased by 0.5 to 12.8 million tons (4.1%); styrene port inventory decreased by 1.8 to 7.5 million tons (-19.0%). [27][28][30] Polyester Industry - **Raw Material Prices**: Brent crude oil (July) decreased by 0.65 to 64.09 dollars/barrel (-1.0%); CFR Japan naphtha increased by 1.0 to 567.0 dollars/ton (0.2%). - **Product Prices and Cash Flows**: POY150/48 price remained at 6990 yuan/ton; polyester bottle - chip price decreased by 81 to 5941 yuan/ton (-1.3%). - **Operating Rates**: Asian PX operating rate increased by 1.9 to 69.4% (2.8%); polyester comprehensive operating rate increased by 1.1 to 95.0% (1.2%). [34] Chlor - alkali Industry - **Spot and Futures Prices**: Shandong 32% liquid caustic soda (converted to 100%) increased by 62.5 to 2750 yuan/ton (2.3%); East - China calcium - carbide - based PVC market price decreased by 60 to 4700 yuan/ton (-1.3%). - **Supply and Demand**: Caustic soda industry operating rate increased by 1.1 to 86.9% (1.3%); PVC total operating rate decreased by 0.9 to 73.1% (-1.2%). - **Inventory**: Liquid caustic soda East - China factory inventory decreased by 0.4 to 19.1 million tons (-1.9%); PVC total social inventory decreased by 2.0 to 37.8 million tons (-4.9%). [39][40]

市场主流观点汇总 2025/5/27 报告说明 关 迪 此报告，意在客观反映行业内期货公司、证券公司对大宗商品各品种的 研究观点，追踪热点品种，分析市场投资情绪，总结投资驱动逻辑等。 本报告不构成个人投资建议，仅供公司内部使用，仅作参考之用。 报告中策略观点和投资逻辑是基于所采纳的机构当周公开发布的研究报 告，对于各期货品种的多空观点、交易逻辑进行整理加工汇总而成，收 | | | 盘价数据选择上周五，周度涨跌为上周五较前一周五收盘价变动幅度。 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 【行情数据】 | | | | | | | | 资产类别 | 细分品种 | 收盘价 | | 周度涨跌情况 | | | | 数据时点 | | 2025/5/23 | | | 2025/5/19 至 | 2025/5/23 | | | 黄金 | 780.10 | 黄金 | | | 3.76% | | | 白银 | 8263.00 | 白银 | | | 2.00% | | | 豆粕 | 2952.00 | 豆粕 | | | 1.83% | | | 棕榈油 | 8006 ...

高盛：沙特和卡塔尔的新天然气项目可能会在未来两年将欧佩克的液化天然气产量提高到平均每年20万 桶/日。 ...

Energy - Vietnam has signed a nuclear energy cooperation agreement with France [1] - Russia is in deep discussions with Bahrain regarding a liquefied natural gas supply agreement [1] - The US has invited officials from Japan and South Korea to Alaska to discuss cooperation, including a large natural gas pipeline project [1] - HSBC expects OPEC+ to announce an acceleration in supply increases in July, similar to May and June, with a pause in production increases expected in Q1 2026. The forecast for Brent crude oil prices is $68.5 per barrel in 2025 and $65 per barrel in 2026, with increasing downside risks [1] - Egypt's Ministry of Petroleum announced the arrival of a floating storage and regasification unit, ENERGOS POWER, from Germany with a capacity of 174,000 cubic meters, and plans to lease two additional units [1] Precious Metals and Mining - The Democratic Republic of the Congo aims to reach a mineral agreement with the US regarding eastern rebellion by the end of June [2] - The Turkish Finance Minister stated that the country has over $400 billion in unregistered gold reserves, which are not reflected in the banking system and reserves [2] - Citigroup has raised its 0-3 month target price for gold to $3,500 per ounce due to new tariff escalations, expecting gold prices to consolidate between $3,100 and $3,500 per ounce. The target prices for platinum and palladium remain unchanged at $1,050 and $900 per ounce, respectively [2] Agriculture - Japan's Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries announced a new government rice reserve release plan, moving away from bidding to direct contracts with large retailers, with a pre-tax price of 10,700 yen for 60 kilograms of brown rice, which is 47% cheaper than the most recent bid price [2]

请务必阅读文后重要声明 第1页，共2页 投资咨询系列报告 投资咨询系列报告 山金期货原油日报 更新时间：2025年05月26日08时03分 | 原油 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 数据类别 指标 | 单位 5月23日 | 较上日 | | 较上周 | | | | 绝对值 | 百分比 | 绝对值 | | 百分比 | | Sc 原油期货 | 元/桶 452.80 | -0.90 | -0.20% | -3.40 | -0.75% | | WTI | 美元/桶 61.76 | 0.95 | 1.56% | -0.73 | -1.17% | | Brent | 美元/桶 65.03 | 1.00 | 1.56% | -0.30 | -0.46% | | Sc-WTI 内外价差 | 美元/桶 1.20 | -1.09 | -47.59% | 0.27 | 29.60% | | Sc-Brent | 美元/桶 -2.07 | -1.14 | 122.35% | -0.16 | 8.15% | | Brent-WTI | 美元/桶 3.27 | 4.2 ...

国泰君安期货·能源化工 液化石油气周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所·陈鑫超 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020238 chenxinchao@gtht.com 期货从业资格号：F03128004 日期：2025年5月25日 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 4 ◆ 我们的观点：盘面超跌，短期支撑走强 ◆ 我们的逻辑：5月17日-5月23日，OPEC+增产预期压制油品价格，PG成本端走弱，整体市场弱势运行。截至5月23日， AFEI丙烷指数MA5下跌2.13%至541.05美元/吨；美湾MB价格MA5同步下跌2.26%至388.47美元/吨；华南丙烷冷冻货 到岸价MA5为626美元/吨，较上期均价跌5.4美元/吨，跌幅为0.86%。供给方面，国内液化气产量环比增加1.09%至 50.96万吨，主因民用气产量增加2.7%；丙烷进口到港量环比减少37.42%至37.58万吨；港口库存环比减少3.83%至 309.43万吨（华东144.33万吨/-6.96%、华南61.4万吨/+4.6%）。需求方面，本周国内丙烷脱氢装置开工率在61.15%， 环比上涨3.17个百分点；天弘化学PD ...

临渭区各镇村成立党员抗旱服务队，实行"干部包村、党员联户"机制，带动村民积极抗旱；华州区 农技服务人员深入田间地头，指导农民采取喷灌、滴灌、畦灌等方式进行灌溉；合阳县抽调农业系统 180名农技人员组成12个工作组，下沉镇村一线宣传指导服务……当前，渭南各县（市、区）把抗旱稳 粮作为头等大事，深入开展千名农技人员"三贴近"技术服务大比武活动，多措并举抗旱增产。 "我们组织12个市级'三贴近'包抓组深入包联县（市、区），召开专题会议，对抗旱稳粮工作进行 再动员、再部署、再推进，深入生产一线开展技术指导。"渭南市农业农村局党组成员苏新会说。 当前，小麦正处于灌浆期，这是决定小麦粒重和产量的关键时期。渭南各地精准施策，延长灌浆时 间，全力打好夏粮生产关键一仗。 蒲城县是小麦种植大县。近期，该县农业农村局抽调技术人员深入一线指导群众开展抗旱；组织14 家专业合作社，于5月10日至25日将小麦"一喷三防"作业费从每亩10元降至每亩5元；动员群众拓展水 源，千方百计扩大灌溉面积；加强小麦中后期管理工作，扩大"一喷三防"区域，增强小麦抗旱能力。 富平县组织5个县级粮油包抓组、158名农技人员下沉田间，指导群众开展小麦"一喷三 ...

| 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑及价格区间 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | OPEC+7 月或继续增产 41 万桶/日，油价走弱。OPEC+持续增产，原油远月压力较大； | | 原油 | 偏弱 | 夏季原油消费旺季即将到来；中美关税超预期下降，宏观面改善，市场风险偏好上升。 | | | | SC【445-465】 | | LPG | 偏弱 | 仓单压制盘面，液化气走势偏弱。近期液化气仓单不断攀升，盘面受到压制；油价偏弱， | | | | 下游利润不佳，但对美关税下降后，进口成本下降，开工率有上升预期。PG【4110-4140】 | | L | 偏弱 | 成本支撑减弱，期现齐跌，社库去化速度放缓，供给充沛；抢出口可持续性不强，农膜 | | | | 季节性淡季，反弹偏空。L【7100-7200】 | | PP | 偏弱 | 成本端原油偏弱，上中游库存去化，月内存新装置投产计划，供给充沛，内需淡季，基 | | | | 本面供需格局偏弱，反弹偏空。PP【6935-7050】 | | PVC | 偏弱 | 上中游库存续降，基差走强；烧碱涨价，氯碱一体化利润修复，低估值支撑。5-6 月有多 | ...

油价再度回撤，关注欧佩克增产节奏 燃料油日报 | 2025-05-23 市场分析 上期所燃料油期货主力合约日盘收跌2.22%，报3000元/吨；INE低硫燃料油期货主力合约日盘收跌1.63%，报3505 元/吨。 宏观风险、关税风险、原油价格大幅波动等、发电端需求不及预期、船燃需求不及预期 2025年期货市场研究报告 第1页 请仔细阅读本报告最后一页的免责声明 昨日原油价格再度回撤，欧佩克在7月延续增产的预期导致市场承压。但考虑到俄乌与中东地缘局势仍不明朗，短 期或反复波动。 就燃料油自身基本面而言，短期市场矛盾有限。其中，5月份地中海ECA生效后，虽然低硫燃料油需求被部分替代， 但炼厂也通过产品调整减少低硫燃料油供应，欧洲市场表现实际强于此前预期，套利船货量的收紧也对亚洲市场 形成支撑。但中期来看，低硫燃料油依然面临需求份额被替代、剩余产能较多的矛盾。高硫燃料油方面，随着夏 季临近，中东等地发电厂需求进入季节性增长阶段。沙特、埃及等国家燃料油采购逐渐增加，但随着欧佩克加速 增产，沙特等中东国家或增加原油在发电终端的消费，燃料油替代需求可能出现同比下滑。 策略 高硫方面：震荡 低硫方面：震荡 跨品种：无 跨期 ...